SumerSports Live #NFL Quarterback Contract Draft

Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics), Parker Fleming (@statsowar), and Eric Eager (@ericeager_) go six rounds selecting NFL quarterbacks and their contracts.

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Episode Transcript

(00:00):
M hmm. Okay, welcome toepisode sixty of the Summer Sports Show.

(00:50):
As we let the music run downa little bit here, I'm Eric Eager.
Oh, and we have that overin the other part here, I'm
Eric. You're I'm joined today byParker Fleming, who is just going as
Parker here because much like Prince Nneemany other like great people in in entertainment

(01:11):
who have been just by one name, he's going as Parker here at SATs
of War on Twitter. And I'malso joined by Tage Seth, data science
to both of these guys data scientistsat Sumer Sports. Guys, we haven't
done a three person pod and forever. How are you guys doing? Doing
great? Yeah? I think itwas what like a couple weeks for the
draft maybe we were doing We dida little bit of a round table,

(01:33):
but yeah, it's been a littlebit and Tage was off on his international
well well deserved international vacation after graduatingcollege. So yeah, glad to be
back with both of you guys.Yeah, I'm really excited for today.
You know, like you mentioned,Eric, it's Parker Oprah Ellen, like
all these entertainment moguls that are goingby one name here, so you know,
it's a it's an honor to beon the same show as you guys

(01:55):
today as well. I went straightto like basketball, Remember when Nane Hilario,
like when by nanat like eliminate hislast name and like, unlike Parker,
Nne was like very like nondescript andkind of like an average NBA player,
you know, while Parker is anabsolute star here and deserves just the
one day Moniker uh here um reallyreally enjoy we kind of get some people

(02:21):
into the chat here. We alreadyhave dug analytics looking forward to this one.
I am too. Today we aregoing to draft quarterback contracts. Now,
we're not just drafting the contract.We're drafting the asset that goes to
the contracts, right, So it'snot just like you know, oh,
I want to draft Mike White becausehe has a he has a relatively modest

(02:42):
contract. No, we we're goingto draft the player that goes along with
it as well. But we aregoing to in a snake draft form,
starting with me and then Parker andthen Tage and then doing a snake draft
six quarterbacks each. We've both probablygone through our different methods of going through
in ranking how good the contracts are. Let's set up side a few ground

(03:06):
rules, like what is the whatis the time period for each one of
these? Yes, how many yearsare we drafting this for guys? Yeah,
so we're drafting for the next fiveyears. So I think that's what
we'll make this a lot of funis you have to consider age, and
then you also have to consider quarterbackswho are on a contract right now that

(03:30):
isn't going to last pass this fiveyear parameter that we set. You have
to kind of think about what's theirnext next contract going to look like.
So that's okay for a rookie quarterbacklike Bryce Young, who we know is
going to have his four years onhis rookie deal plus his fifth year option.
But for someone like Trevor Lawrence whoonly has a couple of years left
on his rookie deal, we haveto kind of think about what his next

(03:51):
contract is going to look like.And so that's what I think we'll make
this interesting. And then I knowParker will really like this as well.
You also have to also could Jeffa quarterback that's currently in college right now,
but you'll only get four years ofthem instead of five years because they
still have to finish up their finalyear in college. But you can also
consider that as well. In thedraft when we drafted the six quarterbacks each

(04:13):
and you can you can absolutely tankfor Caleb Williams, Drake May you know
your your favorite guy in Milton outof Tennessee. I love this. I
love this concept. It makes youactually like, It made me like people
act. You know, look,people people might think this is just natural,
like how good I am at thisshow, but I actually went at

(04:35):
lunchtime today and actually pinned down whenI thought the surplus value of each of
these contracts was so I at leastcame prepared because I know how smart you
guys are, and if I don't, I'm gonna stick out like a sore
thump. Any any clothing thoughts beforewe get to this before I draft first
overall year, I feel like it'simperative. Eric. We've mentioned on this

(04:55):
podcast before the official slogans about likewaiting for Williams, delay for May.
I want to let you guys knowthat the tanking for Joe Melton slogan is
Wilton for Milton. I don't loveit, but I think it's I think
it's what we've got to go withthere. So uh yeah, we'll see
where We'll see where our Milton getsin this in this draft, if at
all. Um, yeah, Idrew up a little. I'm not gonna
show it to anyone because my handyworksbad. But I drop a little,

(05:18):
uh just a little, you know, uh budget constrained. It's some optimization
and some diminishing returns about you know, quarterback play versus age and all that.
So I don't have a fixed number, but I have a little bit
more than vibes, and I thinkI've got a good strategy being in the
middle here. Yeah, I thinkvibes is always like the right way to
start the conversation because otherwise these thingsare not particularly enjoyable if we just went

(05:41):
straight by the numbers. But luckilyall three of us are huge football junkies
that will draft a player based onTay's just taken Jared Goff in this draft
at some point, and we justknow that either him were handed to hookers.
So I'm first. We drew that. I'm first, and like I'm
gonna, I'm just gonna, Iknow this is not like this is a

(06:02):
I'm a Kansas City fan, I'malso like a huge Patrick Mahomes fan.
He's my favorite player. Like theissue here is though, and I get
it, like he's gonna sign anew deal that's gonna make him, you
know, effectively, you know,paid probably fifty five to sixty million point
soon. The problem is is likehe's never going to be worth He's never

(06:23):
going to produce less than that.The thing with Patrick Mahomes is like,
and you know, I wish likeone of these days I'll do this on
an iPad. We could show kindof the sigmoidal shapes and stuff. But
essentially, like the way that thequarterback draft curves work is like it is
very like sigmoidal, right, Likeyou kind of increase and then you you
level off, but then the contractsunderneath it, like the rookies are almost

(06:47):
always a value, right like therookies, um, you know the rookies
are you know, if you ifit goes up linear, that line is
going to be above the bottom partof that sigmoidal shape. I know,
this is great podcast me using myhands either and then once you get in
that sort of like Kirk Cousins,Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek carr range, the

(07:08):
contract is always like that, it'sbowing out. It's over the linear part.
But then you get to Patrick Mahomesand some of these other great players
for which who are worth more onthe field than the than the salary can
ever meet. Because the team alwayshas these instruments like them, like the
franchise tag and stuff, he's alwaysgonna be worth more. And so even

(07:28):
though um, there are going tobe players in my opinion who are right
now if like you just look attwo thousand and twenty three, justin Herbert,
Joe Burrow to a tongue of yloa, I think, and Trevor Lawrence
all have more surplus value in myopinion this year than Patrick Mahomes does.
I think once they belly up tothe to the to the well for a

(07:49):
contract in the following year, Mahomesis going to overtake them. So I'm
gonna go Patrick Mahomes first. Notunexpected. One of the shout out in
Matt Edwards saying that we should draftTaysom Hill in the in the in the
first round. Eric, I basedmy entire draft strategy on you taking Patrick
Mollmes in the first round, andthat makes sense. I made a similar

(08:11):
argument. I think especially at thetop end. The conversation about that we've
had in the past, for instance, about like rookie quarterback and how valuable
that contract is has to do withthe uncertainty of the rookie contract versus the
relative certainty of those other key positions. Now you can kind of invest your
resources in a way that facilitates someonelike a Jalen Hurts or heck, even
a brock Party to come in andrun a functional offense with really good surroundings.

(08:35):
In this conversation, though, Ithink I have to not worry about
that as much. So I prioritizedage. I prioritize what I think is
quality with limited uncertainty, and soI think my natural pick here is Josh
Allen. M pretty expensive, notthe most expensive quarterback in terms of certainty.
We know what he's going to be. He's locked up for the entirety
of this horizon, and so Ithink his contract only gets better as we

(09:00):
see guys like Burrow and then Herbert'sgonna get paid and Lawrence is gonna get
paid during this horizon. Him beinglocked in I think makes him especially valuable.
So I'm going Josh Allen at numbertwo. Are you worried all about
injury with him like, well,I think the the other natural pick here
would be Kyler Murray kind of bythat, um, by the same logic

(09:22):
I'm going And I think I'm moreworried about Kyler Murray and his call of
duty antics than I than I amabout Josh Allen per se of course,
just a just a joke there,but UM, I don't know. I
think that he's not um Obviously wehave to build behind that. But I
think that Allan, you know whateighth in avoiding sacks in terms of UM

(09:43):
or in terms of negative EPA onsacks UM this last season, I don't
know that the injury is the biggestconcern here where I know what the upside
is, and I know with certaintywhat the upside is if Josh Allen,
I think in the NFL, ifyou can know that you have the quarterback
that is going to be that good, that kind of trumps all else for
me. Now we're not even outof the first round, and and we're

(10:05):
already saying, like I thought whatyou just said was very interesting. You
said, I know it's certainty whatthe upside is. This is sort of
like this second order of fact whereyou're you're you're saying, we don't know
what the outcomes are going to be, but we know what distribution they come
from. That's a very interesting statementbecause we don't, like we don't even

(10:26):
know what the distribution is for somebodylike Anthony Richardson, like we we're guessing
at it, but and we don'tknow the outcomes for any players, but
we do know. But you makeit that's a very interesting statement. I
didn't want it to go unnoticed byby our listeners very I thought, very
well, said Tage. Yeah,no, I love what both of you
said that. I think the mostinteresting point that you guys brought up is,

(10:48):
like we talked so much about thebenefits of rookie contracts, especially for
quarterbacks because of the uncertainty and howyou still should be able to get some
surplus value. Even the quarterback ona rookie contract isn't like a top ten
quarterback like they can just be tentthrough twentyeth for example. But for you
guys taking Mahomes and Allen at oneand two, I think that's because you

(11:11):
know for certain that they are goingto be one of the high level top
five quarterbacks in the NFL these nextcouple of years. And that's why you
can count on that despite the contractbeing higher than a rookie contract. So
I like those picks a lot,and with a third pick, I'm going
to take Trevor Lawrence, and Ithink this gives me a couple benefits.
You know, he has two yearsleft where he has cap hits of ten

(11:37):
million dollars and then eleven million dollarsin twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four,
and then he will reset the marketand become the highest paid quarterback in
the league, probably making upwards offifty five million a year. But in
this five year span, I dolike the two years of getting that that
very cheap rookie contract that we canyou know, build a team around.

(11:58):
And when you look at Trevor Lawrence, obviously his rookie year was a disaster
from a coaching perspective, but lastyear he ranked ninth in EPA per play
In his first year with you know, a real coaching staff around him and
some competent weapons, and that includeddown the stretch second half of the season,
he was fifth in EPA per playand even had the the iconic moment
of coming back down twenty seven zeroagainst the Chargers to win a playoff game.

(12:22):
So all those things stacked up.Adding Calvin Ridley to the to the
receiving corps, I really like tobuy stock in Trevor Lawrence going into this
year. Yeah, very interesting.How well, for one, the playoff
game was so like Andrew Luck,like where you like lit the house on
fire and then like took took creditfor putting it out. But without the

(12:43):
Calvin Ridley going to that team willbe amazing. I think obviously better you
know, hopefully a better offensive line. UM. Expectations are really big for
them though, minus one sixty towin that division, which is to me
incredible given that they're the Jaguars.Yeah, no, for sure, I
agree. Um. And then yeah, going on to the second round here,

(13:05):
So it's snaking back around to tomy pick again, I am going
to take Justin Herbert. Um.You know, I think Justin Herbert had
a down year last year, andeven his his biggest supporters in LA wouldn't
dispute that. But I would liketo also like have some Justin Herbert stock.
Going from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore. Kellen Moore consistently pumped out top

(13:28):
five offenses in Dallas, and AdamVanderhart was was on here on the show
a couple of weeks ago to talkabout that, and you know, I
still think he has he has oneleft, one year left of of his
his Rokie contract, plus that thatfifth year option there as well, and
you know, it's it's it's areally tough choice between him and Joe Burrow
just because they've they've both played atsuch a high level. But I just

(13:50):
I just slightly prefer justin Herbert's playstyle, so would would like to take
him there as well. And thenI am also considering that his his extension
will kick in that you know,after twenty twenty four as well. Yeah,
I think Herbert is Herbert's an interestingone, right, Like I had
a tweet last year that I said, no one's no one. Everybody gets

(14:13):
Jalen Hurts wrong, and it wassort of like I always said that about
Cam Newton too, as it's likethe people who think he sucks or obviously
not right, but then the peoplewho think he's like the second Coming are
also you know, they're missing it. Herbert kind of is in that category
too, or like you have Dolphinsfans on Twitter who are like, Justin
Herbert hasn't pissed a drop in theyou know, in the playoffs and all

(14:35):
this kind of stuff, and that'swhatever. And then you also have people
who think he's like second to Mahomesas far as quarterbacks the NFL, and
I don't know if his production haswarnted that. So it's a very interesting
He's a he's an interesting case study. I would buy. I would buy
the upside with him, um myself, but it's an interesting one. Um.

(14:58):
This worked out great for me becauseI was going to kind of hold
my nose and take Justin Herbert.Not that I like don't like the pick,
and not that I wouldn't have takenhim gladly, but it is the
uncertainty is pretty high because it isit's a little bit more like I feel
like with Justin Herbert, our priorswere pretty strong about like, dude,
he's he's a guy we know,but at what point is not going to

(15:18):
translate around you know, the supportingcontext and everything, um, And at
what point is that it can translate? So I think he had certainty there
makes me a little uncomfortable. I'mactually again, going to go really high
certainty here and take Joe Burrow knowingthat I'm going to extend him the second,
you know, the second I can. He's got what two years left
on this contract and uh, andso we get a little bit of surplus

(15:39):
value over the next two years.But then possibly we could parley that into
extending him and moving that money umand and longer. But I think I
think getting two years of him onthe horizon, knowing that we can give
him a fat deal and maybe he'llhave a mahomesy in spirit and U and
be a little flexible with that sowe can continue to build around him.
I think you've got to take theupside of quality here and a couple of

(16:00):
discounted years. So I'm glad totook took Herbert because I'm gonna go ahead
and go with with with Burrow fornumber two. Okay, you've you've You've
left me like now the cliff fallsright, because I think that if you
look like I think Dak Prescott's probablya zero surplus player. I think he
plays right up to his contract.Um. I think Kyler Murray's an interesting

(16:26):
one. Lamar Jackson's an interesting one. UM, I'm not touching like Derek
Carr, Daniel Jones with a fortyfootball here, No way, Deshaun Watson,
no, Russell Wilson, No.Like the veterans are kind of tough
here. Um, I'm gonna goall right, I'm gonna I'm gonna go

(16:48):
one high, one low. I'mgonna go Lamar Jackson with my second pick,
Lamar Jackson. I'm waiting and thenI'm gonna go. I'm gonna do
it. Anthony Richardson Coles, Ishouldn't have reacted. I baited you into

(17:11):
it. I was good at likeBryce Young obviously I think has a shot.
CJ. Stroud, but like,I don't know, man, Like
I think if you played for Houston, and again we're a very positive podcast
here, we are duckies and bunniesabout every single team. Every single team
is amazing. But if you playfor Houston, you got a low flour

(17:33):
in my opinion, right, Andif you're five foot eight and a half
one ninety with a ten pound weightstrapped her waist, you got a low
floor. Two. So I lookand I said this, I think with
Tage on last Monday's show, ShaneStyken, I get him and he's starting
out and I get, you know, a guy who took Justin Herbert to

(18:00):
the you know to Rookie of theYear, got fired for some reason,
then took Jalen Hurts to the superBowl, and I have now a quarterback.
And look, Jalen Hurts two yearsago as a second round pick for
Alabama out of Alabama who played likeone half of one good game and then
three and a half kind of badgames, got benched for Nate Sudfeld in
the Tank Game, and Stiken tookhim and made him Pro Bowl Guy,

(18:23):
Super Bowl Guy, Patrick Mahomes onthe Ropes and the Super Bowl Guy.
Like I, I don't know,man, I'm willing to buy an Anthy
Richardson, especially because if I dothat, I just have I have the
whole league. By I have,I'm gonna save it for the Manscape reave.
I have the whole league by thejunk there. Yeah. I think

(18:44):
that's a really good pick. That'sobviously the pick I wanted. And I
think that's kind of the highest upsidequarterback. And for the surplus value,
like all vari hints, there ispositive, right, you know, if
I expect a rookie quarterback to benothing. Yeah, his his entire upside
is positive to me. I'm ata critical juncture, I think at this
turn, because if this is mythird pick, right, and I think
I got two solid picks with JoshAllen and with Joe Burrow, I think

(19:08):
I win in the league run ofthe two quarterback offense there. But then
it's like what I do So Iwanted to go upside with Anthony Richardson.
Now I'm trying to figure out whetherI can somehow reverse engineer this draft to
get Eric to have to take KirkCousins and to figure out how I could
get that that worked. The otherone is like I'm extremely tempted by my
I can fix him energy with likeJamis Winston at four million dollars a year.

(19:33):
It's too early for that and that'stoo absurd. But I'm kind of
thinking about, like, all right, where can I get some value?
So I agree with all your pointson Bryce Young. I think with the
horizon and what I've got to paya guy, I think that Bryce Young
gives me the most value here,and so I'll take him for my third
pick. Overall. Yeah, okay, so you guys are are taking a

(19:56):
lot of the players I had highhair, which at least this means my
process was sound if if you guysare taking these players, but it's also
tougher for for me to uh toend up deciding what to do here.
Um. So with with those twotwo rookie quarterbacks off the board and considering
like how much I I like bothof them, I do think that I

(20:18):
have to go one quarterback on aveteran deal and then and then maybe follow
follow suit with what you guys aredoing, so, you know, to
to close out the third round,I will take Lamar Jackson. You know,
it's it's really tough that he's Oh, Eric got him, Eric got
him? I got him? Ohsorry, sorry, Yeah, tampering Dak
Truscott. I'll take Dak Prescott um, And yeah, I will take Dak

(20:44):
Prescott here. And you know,I think he is on a contract where
um where it's it's it's a littlebit harder to to generate surplus value like
you mentioned, Eric, But Ithink that what Dak Prescott provides is is
just so good and I think hedoes so many things while both from a
run game and a pass game perspective. In I was tweeting about this yesterday.
But last year he went from accordingto PFF, he went from having

(21:07):
a three percent turnover worthy play ratein twenty twenty one to a four percent
turnover worthy play rate in twenty twentytwo, but his interception rate more than
doubled. So I think he caughta lot of bad variance. Last year
tied tied for you know, theleague leading in interceptions with Davis Mills,
and I think that reverses this year. I am a little bit worried about

(21:29):
him losing Kellen Moore as a playcaller, but I think adding Brandon Cooks
should be able to offset that.And you know, he does have that
that longer deal where the Cowboys willprobably have to come back and give him
another type of extension before this thistimeframe UM ends up here, and you
know, I don't think that it'llbe something that's that's like totally out of

(21:52):
this world, um, considering howthe first contract negotiation went so so Dad
Prescott would be my might pick toclose up and they're ground there, so
interestingly, now let's throw the contractsout of their top three quarterbacks in the
NFC. Dak hurts Kyler. Yeah, like I feel like this is people.

(22:18):
I think it's controversial. They're gonnathrow names in there, like Daniel
Jones or Kirk or Derek Carr orsomething like if you're starting a franchise and
nothing else matters. Like for one, we're all like, regression is the
rule, right, and and andthe money's made on the tails, right,
Like that's that's how this whole thingworks, right, But Jalen Hurts,

(22:38):
you're gonna lose the coordinator was amazingalready, you have injury concerns with
the running all the time, andagain, amazing progression all that. Like
Dak, you're buying Dak at thedip there, Like Dak's the number one
quarterback in the NFC, right,And like I don't I don't think it's
controversial at all. But people,people on the Twitter, we'll but you

(23:00):
want a pan and fry you ifyou say that, yeah, yeah,
And in some ways, like Jalen, like the problem with someone like Hurts
is not that he didn't have agreat season. It didn't play great in
the role one. They have somuch turnoverund the staff too. It's kind
of like, I mean, yousee this with like how many random Mac
quarterbacks in college football can you thinkof? And you're like, dude,
they were awesome one year because theyhave like a fringe NFL wide receiver and

(23:22):
an overwhelming talent advantage on the lines, and they looked awesome. That guy
comes back the next year and looksterrible and you're like, yep, there's
a very hard ceiling and Jalen Hurtsceiling super Bowl Like that's amazing. But
like they they have hit it.The favorable bounces have happened. I don't
know that there's much more on thetable to be gained from a Jalen Hurts.
Like that's kind of hard because he'sa good quarterback, but we're talking

(23:44):
about like best and especially looking ata forward sense, I'm not I'm not
picking him at all, especially becausethey just extended him. But it's just
really really hard to say. Idon't know how much more positive variants can
go Jalen Hurts his way, evenwith the Eagles having this really good surrounding
context. Yeah, so the Justinm slander has to stop on this podcast.
But um, I was gonna sayCaleb Western, Michigan's Caleb Allenby,

(24:08):
you know, going from that crazyseason in twenty twenty to just like not
doing much in twenty twenty one.Yeah xfl legend. Now, Um speaking
of something, we are picking Manscaped. Okay, I know, Parker,
you can you can sort of turnyour camera off or whatever. But um
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yeah, so open up the fourthround now, three rounds down, just
to recap. Took Trevor Lawrence inthe first, Justin Herbert in the second,

(26:17):
and Dak Prescott in the third.So I don't really have a quarterback
that is going to give me arookie contract every single year that he's on
my team, And for that reason, I do have to go with Houston
Texans CJ. Stroud here. Ilove Stroud as a prospect coming out.
I thought that he gave you alot of things that you want from an

(26:40):
NFL quarterback. The accuracy is there, the processing is there, and he
performed at a high level at atOhio State for many years. And with
taking CJ. Stroud here in thisfive year time frame, I get four
years of the cheap rookie contract andthen I get that fifth year option,
so full control over how much he'sgetting paid for for the next five years.

(27:02):
So I wanted to take him here, but I know it's it's it's
tough to kind of separate the playerfrom the value, and there's still so
much uncertainty with someone like Stroud.But since you guys took the other two
rookies, I felt like it wastime for me to get in there as
well. I think Stroud. Imean, the issue is is you're buying

(27:22):
into Damigo Ryan's and like that Houstonteam kind of becoming something that can be
conducive to quarterback success, which youknow, Ryan's comes from a pretty good
place in San Francisco that I thinkcan um can can really foster that.
So not a terrible battage. Uhand eternity begins anew in the in the
AFC, south Man, you canbe whatever you want to be um with

(27:45):
with just a little bit of elbowgrease. So I like that. I
think it's a lot of upside umthere as well. I yeah, I'm
I'm running all right. So we'regetting like real rubber meets the road here
and I'm gonna, uh, Dougand let expat me. I was going
to hit a home run because Ithink what I wanted to do is like
if I can only take NFL people, I think I'm taking twa here just
because you get two years where he'sless expensive than the current rookies. But

(28:10):
if I'm taking complete upside and I'mtaking control in in this game, I
only get four years of Caleb Williamsum right, because one of them he's
still in the he's still in college. But I think that the tools are
there, all of the metrics youlike to see, the you know,
the pressure to sack ratio, theaccuracy, the minimizing turn over worthy plays.
He's there. We saw him hobblearound on one leg against Utah and

(28:33):
without without any alignment and still almostsingle handedly pull some of that out.
So I think that you've got nextgeneration talent. You can prioritize the rookie
contract, the control. There aguy who should be able to start day
one for you. And here cheatinga little bit. If I have a
year knowing that my quarterback in thefuture is definitely coming down the pipe,
I can I can, you know, build around that accordingly. So I

(28:55):
like the flexibility. I'm gonna goCaleb Williams here and what I think it
is a little bit of a reach, but I'm comfortable. You gotta go
get your guy right you do,um Man, I'm like, i gotta
be honest with you, guys,I'm not buying justin Fields right now.
Like I loved him coming out ofcollege. I had an enormous amount of

(29:21):
money in Ohio State against Clemson inthe in the in the year that they
won the pandemic year twenty twenty wherehe went off and like broke his ribs.
Like I have positive feelings about JustinFields as a player. I have
not necessarily seen it in the firsttwo years in the NFL with the Bears,
Like I see, you know,taking a lot of sacks. I

(29:42):
see not being necessarily as accurate ashe was in college, all this kind
of stuff. Be that as itmay. I feel like he's the best
value left on the board. AmI gonna take Matt Jones? I'm not
taking Mac Jones. Matt Jones is, like you know, Matt Jones is
just a guy. Am I gonnatake Kenny Pickett? No? Am I

(30:03):
gonna take among the slog of theBaker Mayfield, Danny Dalton, Sam Arnolds,
No, And then all the otherguys, like the veteran guys are
And I'm not taking Kirk Cousins.I don't care. So so I'm gonna
go Justin Fields here the first timearound the turn, which I think sets
me up pretty nice because now andthis is another one where like again,

(30:27):
when the this is for everybody here, like when the environment changes, you
have to kind of change your mindor you have to just like be able
to move off of it. I'mnot a huge toa fan either anymore,
like I I I think after thethey pay to uh, the bill comes
due, Tyreek Hill retires and hegoes, you know, he goes and
does a podcast and no one listensto or you know, Jalen Waddle has

(30:51):
to get his money. Like Ithink the world's gonna get really fair for
tah and you know, he hasbulked up a little bit. Frankly,
you know, I like seeing that, but I also don't. I think
it takes a lot for me tolook at a coach like Mike McDaniel and
say he's it and it's good,He's gonna be it forever. We've seen
that kind of with a lot ofcoaches. And so despite these two picks,

(31:14):
I'm not a fan of them.I'm just taking them because I think
they're the best value on the board. So I'm gonna take Justin Field and
then to a tongue of Iloa withmy two picks. Yeah, it does.
It does get a little stale here. And I don't mean in the
sense of these quarterbacks aren't good,but we're talking about the surplus value.
Like I think that I kind ofswung at the beginning and thought like if

(31:37):
somebody took Alan, I would havetalked about maybe taken Kyler, but I
think down here that just doesn't makesense. And I don't know necessarily what
our objective function is, but Ifeel like I've already drafted a lot of
money, and I want to kindof get value for money here. I'm
prepared to get like the littlest bitweird here. Trey Lance is only twenty
three, he still has three yearsof control, laugh, and it's only

(32:00):
eight million dollars a year. Ifeel like I can make a worse pick
in this situation than saying, lookis one appearance it was raining. He
hasn't been he hasn't been healthy.He just needs some reps. He showed
us the raw tools clearly. Imean, I think there's some signal in
San Francisco saying we wanted him andwent to go get him. I think
his ceiling might still be there,a ton of uncertainty, but relatively low

(32:21):
cost. You got some control relativeto having to, you know, get
a million of surplus value on Kyler'scurrent contract. I feel like I could
get a million of surplus value outof Trey Lance being only costing me eight
million a year. So I thinkthis is probably my weirdest pick. Twenty
three, twenty three years old,eight and a half million. I'm gonna

(32:43):
go with Trey Lance here for myis this my fifth pick? Yeah,
fifth pick? Fifth? One more? We got one more after this?
Yeah, okay, then my tweetwas wrong? Then okay? Um.
The interesting part here, right,Like for those that like are historians league,
it's just so much different with thisnow, right because you think back
in the day, like when AaronRodgers was it was drafted. His first

(33:06):
contract was five years, seven million. So like the Packers waiting three years
and then they still get five six, you know, they still get years
four and five at like one pointfive a clip. They can still control
them. You even saw it nowwith a Jordan Love. If you get
to your you know, you getto year four, you got to make
that fifth year option decision, andif there's not a ton of data on

(33:27):
you, it's just awkward, right, And so that that's I wish,
you know, as much as therookie wage scale makes sense and it provides
like this edge for teams and itgives you know, for the Lion,
like you look at and think aboutlast year the Lions and the and the
Jags were both picking one two,they go nine and eight. Both teams
like it gives an opportunity for teamsthat have been struggling for a long time

(33:49):
to elevate themselves because of the surplusthere. It does, it does lessen
the quarterback matturation, and now hopefullywith the third quarterback rule coming back,
that's a helpful thing. But thecontracts are just so hard, right because
if Lance doesn't show you anything thisyear, like what are you doing?
Are you gonna pick up a twentymillion dollars option or you gonna your twenty

(34:09):
five million dollars option depending upon howhe plays, and like, are you
gonna do that? Because it's justso weird to meum, even though yeah,
I think I think it's I thinka team like Minnesota should be trading
for Trey Lance right now. Ithink a team that like needs a quarterback
of the future should be trading forTrey Lance right Tennessee for what they were
asking a third, Yeah, dude, take a third. I'll take Trey

(34:30):
Lance. Yeah two thirds even,yeah, exactly, Especially if you're a
team like sam Brand that doesn't havethey had a lot of compensatory picks,
but they don't have a lot ofpicks coming up. You know, they
didn't have a lot of picks thisyear. They need to replenish the roster's
younger players. Um, I likethat pick, Parker, good job.
Yeah, No, I think thatwas like the most interesting pick in this

(34:52):
draft so far because like it itkind of you can look at it from
so many different levels. Right LikeTrey Lands, we know how I'm important
draft position is in models even fouror five years out, you know,
and and further than that into someone'scareer, right like draft position stays with
you forever. There's there's certain latebloomers, um, who were first round

(35:14):
picks who took a couple of yearsto get going and just to league and
go from there. So you canbet on that with with that side,
But I'm also like on the otherside of things, there's big signal and
volume. And that's something that wetalked about last week, Eric, where
if San Francisco didn't want to playTrey Lance his rookie year, uh,

(35:35):
you know, he got injured lastyear and then this year they're they're open
to trading him. Is there someinformation advantage from San Francisco that they know
something about Trey Lance that we don'tknow where. They don't believe he can
play at eye level. But Parker, like you mentioned, like that third
round pick is you know, mostlikely not going to amount too much,

(35:57):
uh, you know on an averagelevel of of when you look at all
third round picks. So you mightas well take a chance on a quarterback
who went number three overall in adraft that you know featured these these quarterbacks
that have ended up full time startingfor their team, like Mac Jones and
Justin Fields who went after Trey Lance. So that's the really interesting thing I
think is like how much do youwant to weigh his draft prior compared to

(36:21):
like what San Francisco has showed you. Yeah, I mean that's a really
good way to think. And like, right now, just to sort of
reset the board Becauseagia has two picks, and then Parker and I are going
to finish off on one pick eachstill left on the board. Russell Wilson,
Deshaun Watson, Jalen Hurts, DanielJones, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr,

(36:42):
Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, JaredGoff, Kirk Cousins, and then
we had Prescott picked, and thenbeyond that you're looking at guys like Garoppolo,
Tannehill, Pricett, Geno Smith,Taylor, heinik As. Our friend
Colin here has said, this isjust the same Howell cuts um uh and
and so forth you get guys likeJordan Love uh and then a bunch of

(37:06):
backups beyond the younger guys. Yeahno, yeah, so well we'll do
the last last four picks here.Um, I'll take I've I've taken three,
like you know, relatively uh,bigger contracts by the time when your
your your four year five here.Um, even though even though Trevor Lawrence
and Justin Herbert still have some timeleft, I will still be on big

(37:29):
contracts eventually. But I do haveto take a quarterback that is currently on
a big, bigger contract right nowon a non rookie teal deal in Jalen
Hurts. And for this, forthis one, it was it was between
Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray for mebecause I wanted to get one more like
pretty high level quarterback on my teamhere. And you know, since we're

(37:49):
just doing next five years, ifyou were to go to Jalen Hurts is
over the camp page, you haveto see the way that Howie Roseman and
this Eagles front office structured this contract. Jalen Hurts in these next five years
from from twenty twenty three until twentytwenty seven does not have a cap number,
a cap hit over forty two milliondollars. Uh. He does have

(38:12):
a twenty twenty nine Boyd year thatis supposed to count for ninety seven million
against the cap that they will restructureeventually as as they as they get down
there. But I think that rightnow, with the way that Hurts his
contract is set up, you're onlygoing to be paying him at most ten
eleven percent of the cap by thefifth year of this this time frame that

(38:35):
we have here. So I dolike taking him here in this spot.
Um, and then and then frommy other pick, you know, I
am gonna go with Drake May.You know, a quarterback that's still in
college. I want that, uh, that the value there, and since
I took a couple expensive quarterbacks,I think Drake May can balance it out.
I think Caleb Williams fantastic prospect,you know, up there with with

(38:58):
Andrew Lucks and Trevor Law of theworld from prospect perspective, Jake May and
you know listener of the show,jk ol Sullivan at the QB School does
fantastic breakdowns on this. Jake Mayis a really, really good quarterback prospect.
He still does have that year incollege before he can get to the
NFL, but there's just some stafffrom him from from PFE. Accounted for
two hundred five first downs last year, which was third in all of college

(39:22):
football behind Clayton Tombe and Michael Pennixjunior, and then he had an eight
point six big time throw rate,which led all of college football. So
I just really like everything that DrakeMay has to offer, and getting him
in the sixth round, I thinkis just something that I'll take a shot
at and hope he'll he'll be goodin the four years that he's that he's
in this time frame, for gosh, that leaves me only with when it

(39:45):
turns to me Anthony Tresh one ofmy former colleagues and still one of my
good friends, Spencer Rattler, whowho I nicknamed the sus Spencer Rattler over
the last year, that's like theonly one that I'm I mean, you
know, we could go with withJoe Milton too. It's dark down here
and yeah, Milton, like this, if I was gonna take Milton,

(40:07):
this would be the pick, right, Uh j too. I mean,
look, we can go with ourbone Nicks. I mean you're you're in
a desperation mode if you go BoNix or Michael Peenix junior, even though
I like what Peenix did last yearfor Washington. But um, yeah,
And so this is where, like, okay, if I start talking to
myself about like all right, BakerMayfield one year deal, jameis Winston one

(40:29):
year deal. Uh, not reallyinterested in mac Jones or can you pick
it? Like anyone I take.At the lower end of this distribution is
strictly dominated by the potential in thefuture quarterback, right, like the fact
that I'm gonna have four years ofcontrol and and all of that, Like
I am I gonna bet on JordanLove being something that we don't know.

(40:50):
Gino Smith is thirty three, stillon there even though and just got paid.
Um yeah, it's it's pretty slimpickings after after about six quarterbacks here,
Um, I really have no ideawhat I wanted to do with this
pick. This has gotten so faraway from me, Um that I thought
I was gonna be able to getDrake may I think the backup, like
the consolation prize is Sam Howell here. Uh, he's gonna start. We're

(41:14):
gonna find out what he looks like. High draft pick guy who got to
sit for a year and develop.Historically, that's worked for some guys,
although there might be some signal inthat um rookie contract couple of years it's
my sixth pick. If he's actuallybad, we'll cut him and we'll move
on with our lives and try again. So, um, yeah, just

(41:34):
for just for lack of like anythingelse here at the bottom end of the
distribution. Uh, I think I'mgonna take Sam Howell just for you know,
maybe maybe something happens, right,got the rookie control and uh,
and maybe he starts and becomes acompetent starter. First pick in the twenty
twenty draft, like when that draftcycle kind of, um, this is
effectively like a seventh round pick onhim, right, Like I don't Yeah,

(41:57):
raise man, if you just foundout today that Tandel's thirty five years
old, that that was that's me. I'm the problem. Like I figure
that out because I Tannehill is nota bad flyer. I mean, the
guy is like, you know,fairly modest about what he asks for in
the market. He's he's very athletic, and like he does he does some
things pretty well. I think heloves throwing it to the middle linebacker every

(42:19):
once in a while. But whodoesn't. Um, Look, there's there's
part of there's a part of methat wants to take the Shaun Watson here
because of how good he can beand how much the Browns will support him
with money. And then there's likethe other part of me that says,
no, you're stupid. So I'mgonna listen to the other part of me.
Um that there's just too much riskthere, and there's obviously just a

(42:40):
you know, there's gestures and everything. Um, yeah, I'm gonna take
Jordan Love with the Green Bay Packers. Like my thing with Jordan Love is
you're gonna get a kind of KirkKuzzian's kind of thing here, I think,
which is and again I've been abig critic of Cousins, but I

(43:00):
think you're gonna get the Kirk Cousinsoutcome with the benefit of what we've already
seen with Cousins, which is likea team's not gonna a team's not gonna
pay him that, you know,they're not gonna go broke on him.
I think Matt lafu is tremendous.I think he does a really good job
of getting you know, they draftedtight ends, they got running backs.
You know, Christian Watson's pretty goodand like and and so they're good and

(43:22):
Romeo Dobbs in year two, they'regonna run a lot of play action stuff.
They're gonna run a lot of likehe's kind of like a Ryan Tannehill
type in my opinion, in thisoffense, which Ryan Tannel average nine yards
of pass attempt his first year asthe Tennessee starter. You get that,
right, You get the next year, which is gonna be like twenty million,
which again, if he's that kindof if he's like a thirty five

(43:43):
million dollar player, then you geta surplus there. And now you're now
you're just kind of running up thescore. Even if he gets kind of
a market level deal after that,you're still giving me at zero surplus for
the last three years. And I'llbank the first two that I just got
with him given everything else. SoI'm going Jordan to close out the draft.
Yeah, No, I mean,I do love that I think Jordan

(44:06):
Love taking choosing to take that oneyear extension instead of the fifth year option
kind of widening the amount of moneythat he could make or or or you
know, the the other end ofwhere he doesn't play well and ends up
getting less of it. Was waslike one of the one of the more
interesting decisions of the offseason, becausethere's just the Packers don't know what Jordan

(44:29):
Love is going to be, andJordan himself might not even know exactly what
type of quarterback he's going to be. But the reason why I like betting
on Jordan Love is because I thinkthat the infrastructure that Green Bay has in
place for quarterbacks in general, buteven just players is is so good.
We both think that Matt lafloor Isis one of the best coaches and play

(44:52):
callers in the NFL, and youcan start to see this supporting cast developed.
Green Bay is usually going to havea good offensive line. Christian Watson
is wide receiver, one worthy,your Romeo Dobbs. You know you're you're
making more investments into the pass catchersas well. So I think I think
Love is really interesting in that spotnow because of kind of what he has

(45:12):
to offer Um, and we know, like how how badly the Packers wanted
him because of his arm strength andhis tools coming out of college. Yeah,
so let's go ahead of recap,we are going to post this on
the Sumer Sports Twitter and let thepeople vote see what they like the most.
I would ahead. I went Mahomes, I went Lamar Jackson, and
then I went Anthony Richardson, andthen at the turn I went with Justin

(45:35):
fields Um and two a tongue ofByloa and then I finished with Jordan love
Parker. I in the middle,so didn't get didn't get the two the
two picks in a row, andat any point went Josh Allen, Joe
Burrow, Bryce Young, Caleb Williamsgoing for the longevity there, Trey Lance
took a flyer, Sam Howell tooka flyer at the at the end of

(45:55):
the draft. Yeah, I mean, I mean with you had great Josh
took took my picks multiple times,but I think I think that's a good
thing. Um, And so yeah, so I had the third pick and
then it kind of sneaked around,so Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and
then Dak Prescott, c J.Stroud, and then closed off with Jalen

(46:15):
Hurts and Drake May. Awesome.I really had fun doing this. I
thought that, you know, weended up I don't know like I thought.
I thought. Look, I wantedDrake May at the end, so
you know, you know, congratsto uh uh, congratitation taking him.
I thought that that was a reallygood pick um. But I ended up

(46:37):
only with with veteran or with playersthat played in the league. But you
guys took some swings on some onsome players who are still in college football,
which which I think is great.UM. By the way, if
you like what you heard on thisshow, please like, hit the like
button on YouTube, hit the subscribebutton on YouTube. You can go ahead
and um subscribe to the podcast whereveryou get your podcasts, Spotify, h

(47:00):
Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, anywhere youget your podcasts. Please for the next
show, tell somebody you like thatyou like this show, so they come
in. And then when this showblows up and becomes amazing, you can
say you were here first. Youcould say you liked the band before anybody
else did so. For Parker Fleming, four tage that this has been erkiear.

(47:20):
This has been episode sixty of theSumer Sports Show