Episode Transcript
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(00:02):
Hello everyone, and welcome to theSummer Sports podcast Feed. I'm joined here
today for a really exciting segment byParker Fleming at stats or on Twitter.
Parker, how you doing, man, I'm doing great, man. I'm
excited to take a little break fromwork, get in here and talk some
football with you. So yeah,I'm excited to talk football. And today
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we have a very exciting topic,something that I've been wanting to do for
a while, which is just doingwhat fans do, combing through the message
boards for college football. Parker obviouslyis our resident college football expert at SUMER
Sports, and so you know,we had to bring them on to answer
some really pressing questions about kind ofthe Tier two schools in Texas. You
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know, the biggest football state,Parker. Parker, you lived in Texas
for a long time. Give mean overview kind of of this year.
What you're looking for out of thestate of Texas. You know, some
big teams, some small teams.What are you looking for? Yeah,
obviously all eyes are on the Universityof Texas as they shift over to the
SEC and what that's going to looklike. I mean, made it to
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the UH made it to the playoffs, last year with a team that was
super experienced, a ton of NFLtalent, and they have a lot going
on in terms of you know,they brought in Isaiah Bond, they brought
in some other wide receivers to tryto mitigate some of that turnover and Sam
maybe the most fascinating QB controversy inthe nation. You know, the first
time that Quinn you were still asan interception. The camera is just going
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to go straight to arch Manning everytime, right like, And so that
I think is really interesting also funfor nerds in terms of level adjustments.
You know, I think I havea good empirical look at how good the
Big twelve is relative the SEC,but getting some data points about teams crossing
over recently will be really interesting there. So I think that is obviously what
everybody's looking for. And then kindof the second tier, you know,
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you've got some really interesting contenders andwe'll get in deep of these. But
like TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, guys, what are we doing?
All three of them kind of atdifferent states, but like all right,
are you was your you know,Texas Tech has e had the one kind
of pop off year, but tcTexas Tech Baylor. It's like, Hey,
who's going to be in charge ofTexas in the post Texas Big twelve.
Frankly Houston, you know, movedon from Holguson, brought in Fritz
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and has some talent issues, butsome really interesting players. What are they
going to be able to do thisyear and kind of build for the future,
knowing that Fritz is such a programmedbuilder guy. And then of course
we've got to talk about teams likeSMU and Texas State who are looking to
kind of improve on really good seasonslast year and maybe even enter the national
conversation. Texas State for you know, maybe going a crazy run. When
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Big You're you're talking about a Frenchplayoff team. SMU will talk about their
schedule outside of three games, couldbe favored and could have a really good
team, has like a legitimate NFLdefensive line. So whatever you're looking for
in the state of Texas football thisfall, you've got, I mean,
just great storylines, really interesting pieces, and some teams with some really fun
questions that we can debate all offseason, but we won't know until we
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see them step on the field.Yeah, And speaking of some of those
questions, Parker we're going to digin deep today. We'll start with That's
Near and dear to your heart.Obviously, TCU used to write for Frogs
a War. Thus you have themoniker stats awar and looking today at their
message board, Actually there was apreseason predictions thread going and so we found
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a great kind of breakdown of whatwe may expect from user eighty two frog
Fever, who has a great profilepicture. It's James conn from the Godfather,
So shout out to you, eightytwo frog Fever, And he's basically
saying, you know, for elevenpower Games, he doesn't think the schedule
looks all that hard. He wouldbe upset if they went five and seven,
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somewhat disappoint at six and six,hoping predicted predicting seven and five,
that's right around where the line sitscurrently across sports books, and he'd be
happy with eight plus. Parker,what is your kind of outlook for the
TCU Horned Frogs in twenty twenty four. Yeah, I think they're in a
really interesting position. Obviously, twoyears ago they inherited a really developed roster.
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They took advantage of some COVID years, they had some red shirts,
got some experienced transfers, and theygot the bounces and some one score games,
and we're able to go to theplayoff and then and then stick Michigan
and win and go to the NationalChampionship. A great season. But the
question for Sandy Dykes has always beennot can he take an elite roster and
make them elite? But can hebuild that elite roster? And I think
that's some of the questions we have. Obviously a vacuum at quarterback, you
know, Chandler Morris leaving doesn't reallyyou know, it isn't a huge drop
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off. I think in that offense, you really just need to complete some
simple passes, make some plays withyour legs. I think he's fully capable.
But obviously I like Tover as aleader a little bit more and are
going with him. I think thebiggest issue for TC's offense is they legitimately
don't have that number one quarterback Hoover. You know, three star guy,
really great personality, well respected,works hard, had made some plays,
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had a great game against BYU.But I mean it's really hard to say
this is the anchor of TC's offense. Is the future quarterback situation going forward?
They're in a pretty bad quarterback situationhere. If he gets hurt,
then you're looking at a guy whocouldn't start Vanderbilt or a true freshman who's
undersized as well. So the depththere is certainly worrisome. That being said,
I think, you know you've gotSavvy on Williams and you've got Cam
Cook at running back, two guyswho I think have NFL potential and could
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be really good skill players. Absolutelyin the tradition of what we've seen from
TCU. The biggest questions for TCUare one, what is quarterback play going
to look like? Will adding Brockermeyerand Bluss Harris along the offensive line finally,
get TCU kind of a solid passpass block offense, which they haven't
had in a long time. Hooverwas in the twenties at pressure to sack
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ratio last year, so really kindof rough to do anything when you're getting
sacked that much, and obviously youtake a lot of hits, you get
hurt. We saw Hoover dealt withthat a little bit. He was out
for this spring as well, andthen you know, you gotta look at
the defense. They fired joeoal espthey move on, they bring in Andy
Avolos from Boise State, and they'removing from the three down to the four
down. So I think a lotof people will see the loss of Don
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Williams upfront. Don Williams, youknow, was seventeen in training campus freshman
year, came in and played ahuge role in TCU is really that three
down tackle. But he does leavea vacuum even if he wasn't a good
fit for kind of the four downoffense. Well, the defense regress this
year, positively, will it?Will it? Will it kind of some
of those you know, take astep forwards, some of those bumps that
happened last year TCU this season,you know, you really have to ask
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yourself, like, what's the bestcase scenario here if everything goes right?
Flirting with eight or nine wins maybe, But I really think for TCU,
they're they're they're really kind of wondering, Uh, you know, what can
we build without the elite quarterback playthat we've seen from prior Sunny Dyke's offenses.
Yeah, it's interesting. I thinkthe name of the game here is
the quarterback as well. Parker andI think eighty two frogs Fever kind of
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hit the nail on the head,like Hoover is really a toss up.
I think he had limited snaps ascompared to like some of the guys that
started all season last year, buthe did okay and QBR I think he
was third in the conference by ESPN'sQBR metric. I think that a lot
will be riding on his play,but I think they're gonna hopefully put him
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in a place to succeed. Lookingat their schedule, it's really interesting at
the beginning of the year because Stanfordobviously not a super great team, but
I do think that they are wellcoached, and typically when you have a
good coach, you jump up kindof in that second or third year and
get around that bowl level and maybehave a big win or two. I
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wouldn't be shocked to see if Stanfordmay have a big win against TCU.
Suffice to say, similar to whatended up happening with Colorado last year,
where you get a big open seasonwin and then it kind of gets harder
down the stretch for a team thatdoesn't really have that level of talent,
and then they're facing SMU, whoI think is a really good team who
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will talk about a little bit laterand then UCF, who currently sits at
about over seven and a half aswell, And I also think that they're
pretty good teams. So I thinkit's gonna be interesting to see where they
sit after a couple of games.I could actually see them sitting at one
and three, two and two,and then kind of an uphill struggle in
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the Big twelve. What are yourthoughts about where they kind of sit in
the Big twelve this year, Parker? Yeah, I mean there's like a
little bit of a log jam inthat seven and five of you know,
Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Iowa State are all at
seven and seven and a half onvarious lines. Texas Tech obviously juiced a
little bit to the over everybody else, kind of a little bit more in
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line there. I think for TCUthe spots are certainly more important. So
there's a couple of games you absolutelyhave to win, like Houston, you
probably need to beat Texas Tech.You probably need to beat Baylor at Baylor,
and then win that Cincinnati game.They are your four wins right there.
You get LU that's five, andthen you talking about, Okay,
what do you do. I thinkTCU believes they should go into Stanford and
run the doors off the score aton of points. Stanford's offense is not
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built to sustain that level of volumeof plays and passing, and so they
absolutely want to do that. Butthen you're talking about, Okay, you
do get these peers, right likeat Kansas, at Utah, at SMU,
that's a really tough three out offour slate there, even if you
get Houston, who should be ina rebuilding year in the middle of it,
UCF kind of a dark horse contender, and then Oklahoma State Arizona at
the end there. I think TCUis kind of like in a situation of
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runs this fall and they really haveto think about, all right, when
we win, can we can wecapitalize and when the next game keep it
going when we inevitably lose, canwe avoid a spiral? Can we avoid
a catastrophic injury? Just because lookingat the schedule, like you get a
break after Houston before Utah, Butthen that stretch there if Utah Texas Tech
Baylor, so two rivalry games,oklam Mi State always plays you hard,
Arizona who's really good, and thenCincinnati at the end of the season.
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It'd be really easy to see TC, you get an injury, lose that
Utah game, stumble against one ofTexas Tech Baylor, and kind of see
the wheels coming off. So,if you're sunny Its and if you're this
program, what you're looking for isproof that you're building in the right direction.
So obviously want to make a bowl, Obviously want to want to flirt
with that seven win mark compared tolast year. Last year you know,
should be an absolute abomination. Abominationbut aberration, And so what you're really
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looking for is consistent play. Canwe improve as we go, can we
stay healthy for an entire year andkind of see what we have on the
roster. I think that's what TCis looking at this year. Yeah,
that makes a lot of sense,and especially in that Big twelve scene.
We also have a team in Houstonwho is who has a Sunny Dikes obviously
coming from SMU. Houston now hasWillie Fritz coming over from Tulane near and
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dear to my heart, given thatI played for him for four years.
And so we have a great questionfrom koogsfans dot com user cougar Do talking
about Donovan Smith. Donovan Smith issomeone who has started getting some looks as
a potential quarterback who can pop upinto that day two, day one range.
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Parker, you've commented on this andhumorously with saying, with a couple
of strategically placed tweets, we couldget Donovan Smith mocked in the first round
before he takes another snap. Thatwas obviously in response to a tweet about
Pro Football Network, and kugar Dobasically was responding to that, saying,
with this staff and this offensive coordinator, how can Smith get into the first
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round? Aren't we going to berun heavy even if he is a part
of the run. Why would theNFL see that as first round? Parker?
What do you see in Donovan Smith? Okay, so you know,
jokes aside there obviously, like whatyou see a lot of draft twitter doing
is looking at traits and kind offalling in love with the idea of a
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player, almost like a little likea middle school boy who's never talked to
the hot, popular girl but sayshe's in love with her. You're like,
you don't actually know her, You'rein love with the idea of her.
And I think that happens a lotwith quarterback prospects, saying hey,
do you have a cannon? Doyou have the build six five two forty
one, Like, I want tobelieve in a world where Donovan Smith can
land in the right situation and belike a high level athlete at the next
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level, can play the quarterback positiona little streaky in the past game last
year, but was passing a wholelot. I actually think that's some better
selection, moving from kind of thatair raid to a little bit more of
a I don't know if you'd callit a power raider or a more traditional
spread from Willie Fritz there, butsaying we're gonna we're gonna run the ball,
We're gonna highlight our athletes, We'regonna strategically choose run and pass a
little more decisively as opposed to justbeing super pass heavy. I think that's
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actually gonna help with the selection andget him some better passes. I mean,
you know, Smith last year fortythree to fifty one, forty eight
attempts, like was just absolutely slingingthe ball. I think I want to
see that in the twenties to thirtiesfor most games for him, and you
know, get him some better opportunities, let him make some play with his
legs, let him run a littlebit. You look at the pressure to
sack ratio seventeen point eight, sounder twenty not anything to be too concerned
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about. He can certainly improve onthat with again better passing selection as well.
I think the raw raw traits andthe size are there, and I
think people that have talked to himare impressed with his ability to kind of
talk through the offense and the mentalside of things. So that plus a
coach who has a record of developingguys into quarterbacks, I mean, looking
at what Tulane has done, Ithink is a really really good opportunity for
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him. Obviously the mocking him inthe first round is kind of a joke,
but Sam, we've seen the lastcouple of years that you want the
elite quarterback, absolutely right. It'skind of this hollowing out of like,
man, if I can't get theelite guy, then I'm looking for a
toolsy guy who can fit and maybecontribute in a little bit, and I
think Donovan Smith could absolutely play himselfinto that. One thing that really stands
out to me about him, Samis there's a couple moments in their season
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last year and I'm thinking specifically rightnow out of Texas when they had fourth
and one where they ran a playthat was not a Donovan smith sneak or
you know, did not feature himat all, and you thought, oh,
this team is worse when you takethe ball out of his hands.
And I think that's just the absolutetestament to a game or there. So
I'm optimistic about Donovan Smith. Seriously, I don't think he's going to be,
you know, that top end,next generational prospect or anything. I
think some prospect bros will definitely fallin love with him, but the size
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and physicality and maybe a I don'twant to call it a smarter offense because
I love Dana Holgerson, I lovethe air raid, but maybe an offense
that's that's more selectively tailored to individualstrenks will help him really really shine and
help him develop as a passer.Right Parker and I think we're really really
out in front of this right now, and I'm excited to see how this
develops because I think you and Ihave kind of ideed that this could be
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a situation, particularly with Willie Fritzcoming in a proven winner, this could
be a situation that develops over thecourse of season, really builds momentum.
The first thing I want to playoff of that you said is he's a
trades guy, and I'd been sureto say that it was pretty clear,
you know, freshman year leading Tulanenot the best program to a bowl that
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Michael Pratt had tools to potentially getinto that, you know, NFL seventh
fith excuse me, fifth to seventhround range. Obviously, sophomore year comes
in, lights it up against Oklahoma, Injuries and hurricanes and stuff comes in,
but it was still clear. Obviouslyjunior and senior year locked him into
what most thought was a Day twopick, what ended up being a seventh
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round pick, but the Packers didsend him a rookie day. It seems
as if he's in a good position. Who knows what was going on with
the medicals, especially with late roundquarterbacks, Coaches may fall in love.
There's a lot of stuff that canhappen. But nonetheless, in NFL drafted
quarterback coming out of Tulane, comingout of that Willie Fritz mindset, and
also you can look this up publicly. I know this from being behind closed
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doors. Coach Fritz loves to runthe ball, and he believes in kind
of a ball control offense and he'sbeen doing it for the better part of
three decades. You look at Tulane'spassing play percentage and it's remarkably consistent outside
of that twenty twenty one year wherea former Notre Dame coach came in had
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a very very different idea of whatwas going on. Chip Long really wanted
to air the ball out, wasnot very successful two wins. Otherwise,
you're almost always in the one tensin the country in terms of passing,
right, you're really running the ballcentric. Okay, can I make a
walkee? Can I make a walkypoint on that? Because I like that?
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I think it's all right, waitto kind of think about it.
But what I like to do withwith kind of pass rate sam is like
so much of what you do runningpass is dictated by your situation and even
like game score matters there. SoI think the ball control for Willie Fritz
is less of Hey, the beginningof the game, we're going to control
the ball, we're going to controlthe pace, and more of Hey,
when we get a lead, we'regonna be conservative, we're gonna be even
keeled, We're gonna take what's thereand we're gonna run the ball, accounting
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for down distance, yard line,and game score, coming up with kind
of an expect did rush rate theyactually were only rushing two point nine percentage
points more than average. So interms of pass rate over expected, that's
eightieth in the nation, so stilllower half, but far from that,
you know, triple option kind ofone hundred whatever. I'm interested to see
how that translates where they're going tohave some negative game states here, we
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might see a much higher pass ratejust because they're not getting those leads and
not being able to kind of siton the ball or take advantage of weaker
defenses in the run game. Asyou know, the level adjustments between AAC
and Big twelve are obviously significant.So I do think that I totally agree
that they want to control the ball, but that's almost like conditional on we
get the favorable game state and thenwe control the ball. It's not that
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like ground and pound established the run. And so that's again why Houston's interesting,
why I have them circled is Hey, Donovan Smith's gonna get so many
opportunities to play with meaningful snaps ina negative game state. We're going to
learn a whole lot about him.And I'm hoping that the Fritz offense gives
him a lot more structure, highlightshis legs, lets him choose to run
more, and really benefits Yeah,and that's a great point, Parker,
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and peeling kind of the curtain backa little bit more. You're you hit
the nail on the head there.Uh. One of Coach Fritz's core tenants
is you know, finished with anexclamation point, and that means in that
in that fourth quarter you better beexpect to grind the game down. A
very philosophical decision. So I'm gladthat you pointed out some of the analytics
behind, you know, really expectingwhat they would do in a neutral game
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state, because I think it doesshow that at the end of the day,
Coach Fritz is a guy who believesthat he if he has good talent,
he wants to use it. Wesaw enormous usage of Michael Pratt in
the run game and enormous usage ofty J Spears in the run game,
both coexisting, and so I thinkif Donovan Smith is really going to be
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the center of that offense, Parker, We're really going to see some potential
good numbers and some potential signature wins. What are your thoughts on that.
Yeah, I think the thing aboutHouston this year is like it's all upside.
Their win total preseason is what likethree and a half. I actually
said on my other show a weekor two ago about early season matchups.
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Their game versus You and LV isreally interesting to me because You and LV
is like a legitimate, good offense, but the talent differential is still substantial,
and so it's like, all right, if Fritz is going to come
in, like they're going to winthat game. If they win that game,
you got to be feeling really goodabout like, Okay, he can
coach his guys up and like Itrust him to build long term, which
I think we both believe those thingscan absolutely be true and there. But
Houston is really a developmental school andI mean that as a compliment, and
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they have a guy who is who'sdeveloped at lower levels with less resources.
There's a ton of money at Houston, and I think that in this new
age of attracting talent. I meanjust yesterday they announced number two overall athlete
I think signed with them, andthey're going to play right quarterback in the
future. Like they're acquiring talent andcan build for the future this season.
I think their best case scenario isflirting with the Bowl stick somebody and win
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a game they quote unquote shouldn't.That'll be proof in the putting that Fritz
is on the right track there.Yeah, definitely. And as the kind
of powers that that were Oklahoma andTexas move out, Houston really backed by
Tilman for TD. You know,they have the single big money donor in
a major city coach that's won alot. Recruiting has been a strength for
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them, even back at Tulane andeven all the way back to the FCS
days at Sam Houston State. Likethe blocks are going and it'll be really
interesting to see if Houston you know, next five years, next three years
even becomes that kind of Big twelvepower, so as we move away from
the Big twelve to kind of morethe real g fives here rather than you
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know, just not the powerhouses.Someone that really caught my I Parker has
been Texas State obviously, coach GJ. Kinney coming from Incarnate Word pretty good
year last year. They have whoI think is probably going to be the
best player in the Sun Belt transferringfrom another Sun Belt power, and we
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have user fift on the Maroon andGold Forum for Texas State, saying that
he believes the biggest game of theyear, the most telling part of the
year, will be the first conferencegame against Troy. Obviously, with John
Summerll moving to Tulane, UH Troy, Troy was really the big dog kind
in the Sun Belt last year.He believes that game will have the most
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implications for how successful the season willbe. Partner, how do you view
them building up to that Troy gamein week six and how do you view
them long term? The Texas StateBallcats. Yeah, well, they got
the they got the I thirty fiverivalry with the UTSA before that, and
then a winnable, very winnable gamewith Arizona State coming to San Marcos.
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So, I mean, I legitimatelybelieve Sam. If if they take care
of business, blow at Lamar,if they beat UTSA and they beat Arizona
State and they take care of businessand in Sam Houston and the neutral site,
so two winnable two games, theyshould win, two winnable games.
Four Oh, we might be lookingat being ranked on the on the on
the line against that Troy game thereand then the rest of the schedule is
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a little bit of a breather untilyou get to South Alabama there at the
end, a lot of turnover,a lot of different kind of different states
of roster building going through. Sothey're set up with the schedule really really
nicely. I think that Troy momentis really really nice. I do believe
we'll know about them, you know, before October third, But in terms
of, you know, what theceiling of their season actually is, I
think that'll be the one that reallygets us kind of the most information.
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What I'm really interested in with withwith Texas State. Last year, you
know, their offense was just soversatile and weird and good sam eighteen point
one percent of their designed rushes generateda first down before contact. Wow.
And that's interesting because their quarterback onlyhad Malie Krnsby only had twenty seven rushing
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attempts last year, so TJ.Finley with thirty eight. So again,
most of their running not happening withquarterbacks design quarterback runs which are going to
generate those more yards before contact thereas well. So they were able to
really scheme up some interesting stuff andreally capitalize there. I love I love
what they've done. They really uhwith much less fanfare. They kind of
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did what Colorado did and just said, hey, we're going to turn the
roster in one year, and theyactually did it really really well. Obviously
need some key transfers to hit thisyear, but some really interesting pieces for
them. I wonder if this entireseason, no disrespect to Texas State,
is not an audition for GJ.Kenney twenty twenty five Baylor Bears head coach.
Interesting. Interesting, it would keephim in the state of Texas.
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I think there's a lot there's alot of interest in I think he's a
pretty big head coach. You know, part of Texas State historically not a
powerhouse, not even a powerhouse backto you know, the Southland days,
they weren't really kind of throwing theirweight around. And I think now that
they really have a good player atquarterback and McLeod. You know, last
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year he was third third in thenation QBR James Madison was winning big games
all year, really got a fanbase behind them. He decides to make
the move to go to Texas State, play kind of a more air raid
style offense or more Texan style offense. At least it's gonna be interesting that
Sun Belt outlook Parker, because there'sso much outbound and you mentioned this Troy
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in particular, you know coach comingout, they're obviously adding I believe it's
Gerard Parker. What are your thoughtskind of about that Troy matchup? What
are your thoughts on the Troy side? Good defense? I don't think the
offense last year probably couldn't match TexasState in terms of the projection forward,
But there's a lot of strength onstrength in that matchup, and I think
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it kind of does as the asthe user at Fiefdom on maroon and gold
projected out. I think it willshow a lot about the sun Belt.
What are your thoughts about that matchup? Yeah, I think ironically it's you
know, it is strength on strengthTroy's defense, you know, fiftieth and
ep A per pass forty sixth andthe EPA per rush last year and Texas
State kind of almost exactly similar onoffense there. It really really wially excuse
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me, will really matter kind ofwhat happens on the other side of the
ball. How much of Troy's defensivesuccess and identity is wrapped up in summerw
like, will they be able toreplicate that? I think you certainly are
are going to look at a dropoff there on the offensive side of the
ball hunger fourteenth and ePaper rush fiftyfifth and ep a per pass, So
obviously they're they're they're really balanced interms of rush rate over expected, but
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much worse against the rush. ThatI think helps Texas State's defense. It's
not like Troy has you know,did all transferred I believe to Louisville.
Was he South b Alabama? MaybeI'll speaking out of turn Troy's wide receiver
last year. I think I thinktransferred out. It's not like they have
the one guy who's going to tokind of blow things off the off the
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roof, really challenge one on oneon man. It's going to be much
more schematic there. So I thinkthat benefits Texas State. The thing about
defense and returning production in college samas you know, is like sometimes it's
just good to get rid of badplayers. And I don't want to insult
anyone and say like you're bad,been saying like sometimes you just need to
get fresh fresh meat in there.Ohio did that last year. I think
they were like one hundred and thirtiethin returning production on defense. But their
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defense is awful the year before,so like good, go get better players
and kind of turned through. TexasState has an opportunity for some of the
transfers here to say, all right, didn't work, wasn't working, Let's
take some steps forward. I thinkthey're due for some positive regression. So
the only thing to keep in mindwith Texas State, you know, if
you're talking about most improved or bigthings, you're like, they went eight
and five last year and went toa Bowl for the first time a long
time. Like improvement might be sevenand five and going to a bowl.
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You know, it might just beconsistently staying in that realm. I do
like McLeod I don't think he's youknow, making a level adjustment or anything.
I think he should be really reallygood again here in this offense.
They're a fun team. But Ido think expectation management is really important for
Texas State fans because if you're toogood, you're probably losing your coach this
year. And if you did thesame as you did last year, like
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for your program, that's a stepin the right direction. Yeah, I
definitely could see Kenny kind of steppinginto that napier mode where you know Napier
got a couple of Sun Belt championships. It wasn't you know, absolute killing
it every single year, but everyyear he was cranking out NFL talent,
developing players, uh, recruiting goodplayers in that Louisiana market. Obviously,
(26:08):
I could see Kenny as kind ofthe Texas version of that and moving on
to, like you said, aBaylor or something. But I'm glad you
mentioned the quarterback because that takes usinto kind of our final wrap up of
this segment Parker, which is lookingat SMU moving into the ACC a little
different competition. They have a quarterbackwho's coming off of a major injury,
(26:30):
Preston Stone. You know, inthe final game against I believe it was
against Navy, you know, youknow, broken leg, I think it
was, and he hasn't played allspring, and you know, his backup,
Jennings, Kevin Jennings has played prettywell. And instead, you know,
one the American Conference in New Orleans, UT at a RACKUS Human Stadium
(26:52):
that I was at, then goeson the Bowl, plays pretty well in
a in a in a game againstBoston College, I believe it was.
I don't know if there's that bigof a quarterback controversy coming in, but
on the message boards it's beginning tokind of filter in. And so you
look at Ponyfans dot Com SMU's messageboard, and you look at Dallas Diehard,
(27:15):
who says, is there a chancethat the starting quarterback is really up
for grabs? Preston Stone's been theguy for the last couple of years,
won a lot of games, butKevin Jennings has been darned good in his
place. Parker, is this evensomething to worry about? Or should we
just focus right on Preston Stone andwhere he fits in the ACC. The
OS season such a special time becauseI think it's, you know, not
(27:37):
much football happens, but a lotof analysis happens, and so it's hard
to, uh, you know,it's hard to tag that in and say,
like, all right, what's exactlygoing to be what's going to be
there? I think the biggest thingto remember is if Prestonstone is not the
start of this fall a guy withthat much experience who's played that well,
either Kevin is a round one quarterbackor something's gone terribly wrong, I think
is the way I would think aboutthat. You want Prestonstone to be the
(28:00):
starter. It's hard though, becausewe at Lashley good offensive mind. This
is not the sunny Dyke's SMU.This is not the blow up offense and
shaky defense kind of team. Theirdefense is legitimately good. The offense matters
much less. We saw that inthe a SEC Championship game last year.
Last year there were one hundred firstin ePaper rush, only thirty ninth in
EPA per pass, and you know, just just overall weren't as great at
(28:22):
finishing drives. Their defense was twentyeighth in EPA per pass, seventh in
quality possession rate, echo rate allowed, like really really limited opportunities against some
good competition, and the offense hasto get better, I think if they're
going to take that next step.But like I mentioned earlier, I mean,
I think they could be favored innine games here. They've got you
know, Elijah Roberts, like legitimatedude on the edge, a couple of
(28:42):
good transfers on the defensive line.They've got some real, real talent there
that's going to contend with these accoffensive lines that frankly are not as good
as as I think the perception mightbe there. So I think that that
schedule is they were like TCU Louisville, Florida State back to back to back
is just really, really rough.But I think if you're SMU, you're
(29:04):
kind of siloing that off and sayinglike, hey, we want to be
healthy the whole year, we wantto win. If we win one of
those three, we're feeling really good. You still go ten and two and
flirt with a playoff if you losetwo of those games, right, and
you look at the rest of theirYou look at the rest of their schedule,
and I think it's extremely, extremelywinnable for us, and you kind
of here at the top of theirdevelopment cycle as they move up, right,
(29:26):
And I totally agree with you,Parker. This is the one of
the reasons why I wanted to putthis on here, because sometimes it's great
to approach some of these, youknow, message wards comments that fans may
be thinking about or talking about thatare a little bit more out there,
but with an analytical mind. AndI think the analytical way obviously has to
hold strong beliefs weekly and you know, we do have a strong belief that
(29:48):
prest and Stone is a pretty goodquarterback and that he's probably the answer,
and like you said that if he'snot starting, something has gone definitely against
it. But it's good to testthese kind of hypothesis, especially when fans
bring them up and ask questions,and it's a good way to kind of
walks folks through how analysts and coachesand players approach it. And so looking
(30:10):
at these ACC quarterbacks, you know, it's kind of a moving kind of
kind of a moving shifting musical chairsgoing on. You have cam Ward coming
into Miami. You have dj uAgalle coming into Florida State, Haines King
sticking at Georgia Tech, who wasone of the better guys last year,
Grayson McCall coming into ten Cee State, Clay Klubnick at Clemson, Kyle McCord
at Syracuse, big names, MaxSjohnson formerly lsu A and m now at.
(30:36):
I think he's is he a duke? I can't remember off the top
of my head. Hank Bachmeyer cominginto wake Forest, Riley Leonard coming into
Notre Dame. A lot of musicalchairs there where. Do you think that
Stone kind of fits in? Ishe kind of an average ACC quarterback?
Does he end up popping up onthe strength of that defense and being kind
of a more ball control, gamemanagement guy who doesn't make mistakes and makes
(30:59):
the right decity. Where do youkind of view him in that spectrum of
the musical chairs and the a SECquarterback ranks. See, I think that's
really interesting because the a SEC hasa ton of toolsy quarterbacks. Right now.
You've got like Anthony Calandria, You'vegot Boston College what's his name,
Castianos. Yes, You've got KyraenDrones, who's probably you know up there.
Uh well, I'd say those guysare blue. And then you're starting
(31:22):
to look at like Kyraen Drones,Kpe Club, Nick Hayes, king At
at George Attack of like guys whocould do kind of both there and have
both tools, and you've kind ofgot those one offs like Malik Murphy at
Murphy I think, very much strongerwith his arms. I think Preston Stone
is very much like in that firsttier of Like, if I'm talking about
the four best quarterbacks, I'm gonnago ahead and say it's it's some combination
of Drones Club, Nick king Stone, DJU I think I want I'm worried
(31:48):
about him out of structure. Ithink that's a little worrisome uh, with
with what we saw you know,pre pre organ State and then how much
Jordan Travis improvised last year. ButI think Stone, especially with the experience,
has like it's a different conversation SamGood in college versus like NFL prospects.
Here we're just talking Good in college. We're talking about, Hey,
you've got the experience, like youcan manage this, You've got repertoire with
your team and reps frankly with yourteam that then not a lot of the
(32:10):
other people who have transferred in have. I think Stone is much less chaotic
than some of the guys who canrun better than him, and I think
that he is consistent with the ballin a way that like Calandra, who's
you know, just chucking it deepand can hit those deep passes but has
struggled with the intermediate accuracy. Ithink he's you know, a much better
passer than that as well. Soin terms of a well rounded quarterback,
I actually like Stone to be inthe top four of this conference as fall.
(32:34):
Even if he's not as exciting aslike a haydnes Skiing or a Chien
Drones is going to make some ofthose chaos plays. Your hope if your
SMU is that he can make thethrows he needs to make, and you
cut off that long tail of badplays, right, and I think Stone
has shown that he's not going tocommit those. Yeah, and apologies on
that. I think Max Johnson actuallycoming in filling in as Drake may leaves
as a top three pick at NorthCarolina. And you brought up Malik Murphy,
(32:55):
another five star recruit, you know, transferring out of Texas. I
believe he's going to do following MannyDiaz, so I totally agree with you.
It's very interesting, a lot oftoolsy guys in the spirit of Texas
channel of Rogers coming out of NorthTexas transferring. It's a lot of interesting
folks that I think may make somenoise, perhaps some very sleepery Heisman candidates,
(33:19):
but overall, like you said,it's a lot of traits, a
lot of tools, and really outsideof Stone and a couple other guys that
the production is really not at thatkind of tier one across the NCAA level,
but definitely could maybe jump up there. Any last words on that quarterback
ACC SMU type deal, Parker,I think con for pound, the ACC
(33:40):
has the most fun list of quarterbackslike some of those guys already mentioned.
I didn't even talk about Fernando Mendozaat Cal, who's just an absolute ball
of chaos over there. I mean, yeah, a whole lot of fun
to be had with some of thoseguys. And then there's really interesting,
you know. I want to seedju outside of structure. I want to
see Kate Klebnik finally be the fivestar that he that he was. I
want to see Kyraen Drones throw theball more. I want to see Kyaron
(34:02):
Drones see an opportunity you can takewith his legs and think, hold on,
I bet I can throw it andthrow the ball. And so I
mean you're going to see a lotof fun quarterback player of the AEC for
sure. Yeah, I'm really excitedto watch. And so that kind of
concludes parker our rundown of Texas messageboards questions. Hold on, we got
called We got absolutely called out bya coach from Charlton State that we did
(34:24):
not mention Charlton State in the whackmoving up to Intola in that transition process
eight and three last year, Samlooking to improve on that the game I'm
circling Week two, They are playingBaylor, and we know what Baylor is
like as a program. We knowBaylor has lost a dumb game. I
think that we could look at upsetof the century August thirty first Charlton State,
(34:47):
an experienced team walking into Baylor andmaybe taking advantage of somebody there.
I love it, and I lovegetting called out. I'm a competitive guy.
Shout out to Coach Stone, oneof the guys that brought me in.
Taught me a ton about what Iknow about football. He's obviously coaching
at Tarland and the State. IfI have to shout out everyone I know
in Texas, I'll do it.I'll do it. We have Mike Moots
(35:10):
over at Steven f Austin. CoachMoots a guy that I really love and
it's taught me a ton. Obviouslyall the guys at Houston, but a
lot like you said Parker, andto Coach Stone's point, all the way
from FCS to the biggest school Texas. I think this year it has a
chance to be one of the mostfun years, maybe even going all the
(35:30):
way back to you know that kindof Crabtree Colt McCoy style of guys where
there's a ton of talent in Texas. There's a ton of good coaches in
Texas, and you know, comingoff of a time where a Texas school
made the college football Playoff, wemay be seeing some other teams making some
noise this year. Yeah. Absolutelyfun, fun at all levels, exactly
(35:52):
like you said, for sure.And so to finish it off, Parker,
you've been doing a lot of analyticswork on college baseball. Run us
through some of your predictions for theWorld Series. Okay, So, Sam,
I don't know if you know this. I have a day job at
Suomer Sports, and so I haven'tposted as much about college baseball as I
want to, just because I haven'thad time to run the full simulations.
(36:15):
But I'm I'm walking through this weekendand looking at looking at some stuff like
who's got the toughest regional, who'sgoing to advance and everything? You know,
my power ratings that I that Ido again, just a fun computer
science exercise for me. I likecollege baseball. If you haven't watched college
baseball postseason, very fun. Tennesseenumber one Duke, number two duke I
think is underrated in this tournament.They go to Norman. They're a team
(36:35):
absolutely to watch. For two Lanegoing to the core of alis regional sam
number four seed but a nine ornumber three seed excuse me, three seed
a nine percent chance to advance accordingto my dumb little simulation, numbers don't
love Oregon State off the top thereor you know, Tu Lane could could
upset somebody there. They have oneof the higher odds of some of those
three seeds overall, but mostly justfun to put numbers on and watch it.
(37:00):
It's the most chaotic, it's themost chaotic postseason, Like, it's
just so fun for the regional structureand there's weather delays and you know,
moving games around and pitching decisions thatare just a lot of fun to watch.
But yeah, I think I thinkeverybody's eyes are on LSU this year,
who won last year and then kindof stumbled early on. It seems
like a foregone conclusion that they're goingto beat you and C in Chapel Hill.
(37:22):
And I might be alone in thinkingthat North Carolina is pretty good.
So that's one that I'm definitely goingto carve some time out and watch this
weekend. Exciting and I'm playing towatch a little bit too, And I'm
glad that you gave our listeners aprimer of what they should be catching this
week, and it's going to bereally exciting. You know, we love
all college sports out here, SoParker, tell us where we can find
you, tell us what you'll beworking on. Let us know what's up.
(37:45):
Yeah, I should have a shouldhave an article up over suomer Sports,
and we're working on some weird tacklingstuff, which is a lot of
fun. Obviously, we're cooking onsome bigger stuff over at SUMER, working
on some player value, working onsome content plans for this fall, so
that'll be a lot of fun followingme on at statsmore. Make sure you're
following Sumer sports to kind of catchthe hub for all the smart people,
you know, Sean and Sam andQuinn and everybody who's right over there.
(38:08):
Yeah, for sure. Thank youfor joining me, Parker. This has
been really fun and I can't waitto do it again in the coming weeks
as maybe we move over to Louisiana, maybe a little California, maybe the
Carolinas or Georgia. It's gonna bereally exciting college football season this year,
and we're gonna hit it early oftenand as much as we can. Once
the season is here from Parker Filmingat stats a War on Twitter and Sam
(38:31):
Brookhouse at Brookhouse Sports on Twitter forSummer sports, like subscribe, set notifications
for our post. We're coming outwith a bunch of cool new stuff right
now. An article from our friendQuinn MacLean just dropped on some of the
stuff we talked about last week aboutwide receiver entropy. You got to check
(38:52):
that out if you love football.But for a final goodbye from Parker Filming
and Sam Brookhouse and Sumer Sports.Everyone have a great evening.