The Class Play - Breaking Down the Schedule Release

Sam Bruchhaus and Ben Brown break down the most exciting matchups of the newly announced NFL season.

Episode Transcript

(00:02):
Good evening everyone, Big day onthe Summer Sports Show. We have an
NFL schedule to bet on, tobe a fan of and to watch in
the next couple of months. Theexcitement is building. I'm Sam Brookouse data
scientists at Summer Sports. I'm joinedby Ben Brown. Ben. Are you
excited? Man? I'm always excitedto have But I would say just in

(00:26):
general, I know a lot ofpeople think the schedule releases all you know
overhype. You obviously very much knowyou know the teams, we just don't
know the orders. But I thinkthis is like the time you get to
kind of like map out, youknow, maybe there's a game you're gonna
travel to, maybe there's like,you know, a certain opportunity against the
arrival that you have. And Ialso think just seeing some of like the
idiosyncrasies that there is like a tonthat goes into scheduled development, and I

(00:49):
think seeing all that kind of playout it is really exciting. I think
we're kind of making a nice,you know, niche for ourselves and these
sort of like after post analysis typethings, and then very much I think
it's like, you know, anexciting way to podcast. So I'm very
excited to be here on schedule releaseday. I would say for the twenty
twenty four NFL season for sure.Our data science friends over at the NFL

(01:10):
League office have a hard job everyyear, and it's only getting harder with
games in Brazil and Germany and gameson Christmas, as was announced today that
Netflix has a Christmas game. Theirjobs are over and our job begins.
And at sumersports dot com we donot rest. Taje Seth has a piece
up right now immediately that you cango read if, like Ben said,

(01:33):
you want to plot out which gamesare the best to watch, which games
you might want to go to.He has the most exciting games rated by
a special methodology that he came upwith. You can go read that right
now at sumersports dot com. Butspeaking of methodology, Ben, you are
a resident expert sports better at suomerSports. And so before we get into

(01:56):
the kind of nuts and bolts ofof the schedule for our members of the
audience, to our betters, whatare what's a way to kind of look
at angles and and and what's thekind of methodology you can make up?
You know, the schedule just released. Maybe you you want to look at
what bets you want to lock in, maybe you want to look at games
win totals. What's kind of yourapproach to the schedule release? Yeah,

(02:21):
definitely, I think it's obviously areally interesting question. Like to me,
you know, the newfound information,you know, there's obviously a varying,
you know, degree of like howvaluable it is. You know, to
me, the question obviously starts,you know, in sports betting, you
know what's already kind of like bakedinto the market or the number that I'm
looking at, or what's already beenkind of factored in. Is there anything

(02:42):
that I would understand hasn't necessarily beenfactored in that that could potentially give me
an advantage? And I would say, you know, today the schedule release
day, like obviously things like strengthto schedule we definitely already know and knew
that before today. We knew theopponents. We just didn't necessarily know the
order and and the idiosyncrast season,which like the league kind of like builds
out that order and schedule for allthirty two teams. There is obviously some

(03:06):
you know, benefits to certain teamsand definitely some drawbacks I would say the
others. So I think, youknow, just in general, you know,
things like travel can play a littlebit of an influence. You know,
warm weather teams traveling to cold weathercities, and the think like the
winter months, that's obviously a thing, International games, you know, the
Monday night into travel type situations.Like there are all these like I would
say, subtle small pieces that canbe a little bit of like a difficulty

(03:31):
for an individual team. And it'skind of like if you get you know,
a few different ones of those thingsfor any one team, that's when
maybe you see a little bit ofi would say, like market movement from
a future standpoint. And I alsothink, like, you know, the
way in which the league has orderedthese teams and their games, Like there
are certain teams that you could,you know very much label as like are

(03:53):
going to have a more difficult startjust based on who they're facing at the
beginning of the schedule. And Ithink from a future standpoint, you can
like understand your point of entry andwhen you actually kind of want to buy
into that team or not, andif it is a team that you have
at least identified as one that youwould maybe want to bet on from like
a division standpoint, you know,you know, conference championship or Super Bowls

(04:15):
like those are all markets that aregoing to be available as we progress throughout
the regular season. So I thinking, you know of a team like the
Kansasity Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, likereally difficult starting points, I would say
to this, to the schedule,and maybe those are opportunities where you could
get a little bit of a betterfutures price if you waited on them and
let the season kind of play outthrough the first four or five weeks and

(04:38):
then bud into some of those teams. And I think that's kind of you
know where I'm at from a Benyperspective. Then, of course, you
know, the schedule release, likeyou mentioned, this is very much kind
of the first crack weeked at someof these spreads and totals, and these
things are very much going to bemoving, I would say, pretty dramatically
here throughout the course of the summer. And I very much think that you're
taking advantage of some of that initialI would say pricing discrepancy is like very

(05:01):
much how you kind of want tobe approaching this schedule release? Stay for
sure. Yeah, I coming froma background where I was kind of in
the operations. You know, Iplayed football. There were a lot of
decisions made by our coaching staff,by our operation staff based on how the
schedule would play out, and andobviously during COVID as well, that was

(05:23):
that was a big, huge pieceof how to operate, particularly with like
a sickness going around. However,you know that some of those limitations still
exist, especially with people traveling abroad. There's a lot of kind of spaces
where you may be able to findsome alpha, as you kind of highlighted,
even though it may be quite variantand quite small, it's definitely something

(05:46):
you want to look into. Andit's definitely things that you know NFL teams
are looking into. Do we flya day early? I know there was
a situation last year where the Jaguarars, you know, stayed longer, and
I think it was London that theystayed longer because they had several games there.
And it's just an interesting situation becausethose things, I mean, for
better or worse, it's a variantgame already football is, and those things

(06:11):
kind of have an impact. AndSean has a great question long time viewers,
Sean Donahue, for you, Ben, we know that when you're building
out a game plan or building outa roster. In the off season,
you look at things like age indevelopment curves and things like that, But
is that something that would get bakedinto the spreads that we're looking at today.

(06:32):
Yeah, I mean I very muchthink like the outlook for how you're
evaluating a player and just how muchvalue that player is going to provide,
and you know, season versus seasonx plus one because of like the age
factor, Like, those are verymuch considerations and I think you do have
to kind of, you know,factor that into your overall equation. I
think Sean's asking maybe you know alittle bit of a more detailed question in

(06:56):
the sense that like should aging rosters, like how you kind of approach it?
I would say from like, ifyou do view an aging roster,
like are they going to struggle moreat a certain point in the season because
of the fact that they are goingto cater more towards like an aging roster?
And I think that is something thatwe haven't I would say, necessarily
proven out. I do think peoplehave certain hypotheses probably on both sides of

(07:19):
that sort of mindset. To me, it's not something that I would say
I have I've probably studied enough toreally make a really anchory determination on it.
It's not something that I've found Iwould say overly valuable at this point,
because I would say, like thecomposition of rosters does change so much,
and taking like a simple straightforward,almost like linear mean age type of

(07:43):
expectation for a team really does AndI would say, I'm correctly quantified like
the age and impact and age dropoff at certain positions. So I would
say, to me, I don'tsee a ton of benefit in it,
But it's maybe more so the factthat I haven't fully you know, studied
or invested or have had the correctdata to really derive any sort of insight
in that direction. I would say, right. And we thank Sean for

(08:05):
his question. He's locked in withus, and for those in the audience,
we love all the engagement, youknow, big day, lots of
strength of schedule for all thirty twoteams. If you'd like us to talk
about one of your teams, ateam that you're a fan of, certainly
just drop a comment in the chatand we'll work to get to it.
And so you know, like theclosest games ben are some of the most

(08:28):
exciting beat gamer ninety nine, anotherlong time viewer, had said, great
first game for the twenty twenty fourseason that also in Week one, you
know that Ravens Chief Chiefs game.Prior to the release of the schedule,
we ran some numbers and Kansas Cityhas the highest percentage of getting to the

(08:48):
Super Bowl at twenty point five percentaccording to sumer sports dot com. Last
year, we kind of got knockedand a lot of people said that our
expectation for the Chiefs was too highto go to the Super Well, sure
enough, they win the Super Bowl, so we can take a little victory
lap on that. It's obviously quitevariant, of course, but obviously we

(09:09):
have them there again at at aat a at a top Super Bowl percentage,
the Ravens are sitting at thirde TaeSeth and his peace on on Summer
sports dot Com gave it a watchscore of nine point six to two.
Extremely important game rematch of last year'sAFC title game, Mahomes versus Lamar.
How does Derek Henry fit in?How does Hollywood Brown fit in? Ben?

(09:31):
What's your kind of view on thefun parts of this game? And
maybe some betting angles as well.Yeah, definitely I mean, obviously,
I think we're all, you know, hashtag bless those football fans getting you
know, this quality game. Ithink, you know, kind of a
tage drive. It was like,it's like the fourth most exciting game coming
up over the course of the entireseason. So the fact that it's kicking
off, you know, twenty twentyfour is you know, incredibly exciting.

(09:54):
Obviously, two teams that we wouldvery much project to kind of be at
the forefront of who's going to youknow, the AFC Conference Championship game.
To me, I would like,just look at this initial spread number that
we have, minus three seemingly thinkthat it's you know, a little bit
light. I think if you havelike an average expectation for where they came

(10:16):
to the Chiefs are compared to anaverage team, they're probably closer to I
would say, you know, sixand a half, seven, maybe even
seven and a half, you know, spread points above average. I think
the Ravens are, you know,maybe closer to you know, a four
or four and a half in thatsort of situation. So on a neutral
field, I think minus three isa little bit you know, reasonable,
But I think with the Chiefs expectationobviously, you know, we turn in

(10:39):
Super Bowl, fans are gonna bepumped up, Like I'm not quite sure
that I agree with this sitting onthe key number three. Obviously, you
know when these teams met last yearin the playoffs, it was a dramatically
different spread entirely, So I dothink just in general it does seem like
a little light from the chief standpoint, But overall there's probably still some questions

(11:00):
about how things are going to breakwith you know, some of the skill
position players that the Chiefs have.I think, you know Sean's point about
aging curves and those sorts of things, like I think, you know,
Travis Kelsey in particular is a guythat you know heading into this season,
and we're going to have a lotof questions about where we can expect him
to kind of be at I thinktwenty twenty three in a lot of ways,
you know, lower average depth oftarget. The Chiefs obviously have brought

(11:22):
in a number of receivers to maybehelp overall, you know, the Patrick
Mahomes average depth of target. ButI think you know where Kelsey kind of
lives and how productive he actually isis very much going to speak to probably
the early season success for how theChiefs moved the ball offensively, and I
think that's maybe the one concern.But like you said, I think Hollywood
Brown being in the fold, youknow, exaber Worthy being in the fold.

(11:46):
You know, the questions around likeare they going to have chie Rice
to start the season, I thinkare very much valid and maybe that's a
reason why we're seeing a little bitof depressed spread right now. But if
I was playing one side, youknow, it would very much be the
chief Linus three and I know,kind of seeing on that key number,
there is a decent likelihood that wehave a push and locking up funds for
that long is maybe not the bestapproach. But I think overall, you

(12:09):
know, the Chiefs and what isa game that we need here sooner rather
than later are very much probad ofthe correct side, I would say in
this initial read that I have,Yeah, I have to agree. I
mean, you look at the Chiefs. I think they're a quality team.
And I ran an interesting poll onmy Twitter this week about you know,

(12:30):
how what can we expect from rookierookie wide receivers and and you know,
the the examples that I used wereEric Decker and Nate Burleson, and you
kind of look at the way thatthings have played out for first round right
wide receivers and particularly late round uhfirst first round wide receivers, and they've
actually been a little bit worse thanthat kind of area. Eric Decker,

(12:54):
you know, a guy who hasyou know, one or two quality seasons,
and so like, I don't thinkwe should expect a ton from Xavier
Worthy, just analytically in his firstseason, especially given some of the some
of the ways that we've seen thosetypes of wide receivers play out. I
know, Ben, we collaborated ona great piece about the combine and and

(13:15):
how players who rise up. Hewas one of those combine risers, posting
one of the fastest forties of alltime. So so I wouldn't expect a
ton from him. But but guyslike Hollywood Brown and and Travis Kelcey,
I think they're going to lean onheavily. And I'm really really interested to
see how Derek Henry comes into thefold for the Baltimore Ravens. He's an

(13:35):
old school kind of downhill runner thathas played in you know, that single
back a set for a long time, and it's going to be really interesting
to see. If you know,they have kind of two styles of offense,
one where Lamar is running his generalyou know, read option RPO type
UH type offense going on, andthen also having a more standard downhill running

(13:58):
game. Uh, that's a littlebit greater. Obviously, they've been very
successful with the run game throughout Lamar'stenure. Does this just add something?
Is it a distraction? I know, one you're the Saints outed Adrian Peterson
and it was supposed to be agreat addition, and luckily we lucked into
Kamara, who was fantastic, butit was kind of a distraction for the

(14:18):
first couple of weeks. I don'texpect that with Derek Henry, but I
would watch out for it, andI think they probably have the offensive flexibility
and the coaching staff to really gethim some great touches and take some of
that load off of Lamar. Butit's going to be interesting to see,
and so moving into kind of youknow, still in the early season,

(14:39):
we have another game that's gonna beextremely exciting, and that's the Detroit Lions
at the Dallas Cowboys Week six.Ben, take us through your thoughts about
that. Yeah, definitely, Imean this is what. Yeah, I
think Taje had to probably sneak thisone as in as well. I don't
actually see it in his scores rightup, but I do see another Detroit

(15:00):
Lions game, the Bills game inWeek fifteen as well, kind of slid
in there. But you know,to me, like these are very much
the teams that I think are reallyintriguing as far as like, you know,
price or opportunity to win the NFC. I know everyone's gonna say,
you know, the forty nine ersin particular are kind of, you know,
very much prices the team to beatin the NFC conference. That's very

(15:22):
much fitting. But I think overall, like we didn't see probably the roster
turnover we would have expected from theforty nine ers, but their price,
I would say right now, isjust like not really playable. And I
think if you're looking around the restof the NFC, like these are probably
like the two prime time candidates tomeet. The Eagles in particular, are
team that could very much regress.But you know, the Lions, you

(15:45):
know, have essentially doled out aton of money to core contributing pieces.
How that extends out into their championshipwindow and you know, a couple of
years is very much a question,but right now, you know, keeping
that core nucleus in place that reallykind of laid the foundation for them to
be, you know, a successfulNFC team and one that could very much
challenge for the NFC Championship was kindof the approach that they had to take

(16:07):
this offseason. I think they verymuch have done that, and I think
the Cowboys in a lot of waysmaybe didn't necessarily go in a different direction,
but really didn't go out and Iwould say, you know, land
any sort of marquee type players thatare going to move the need and I
think a lot of these other contendingteams at least added somebody. And I'm
not trying to say, like,you know, the Ravens and Nannie Derek

(16:29):
Henry is really going to move theneedle a whole lot, but having some
sort of semblance of trying to correctspots that you were weakest at last year
is something we see smart and goodteams do, and we just didn't really
see that from the Dallas Cowboys.So I think overall, you know,
with where this number has kind ofopened up that basically I'm looking for the
spread just to confirm once again rightnow, but it's basically, you know,

(16:53):
like right around to pick them minuszero point five for the Dallas Cowboys
forty eight and a half point total. To me, I'm I'm intrigued by
what Mike Zimmer is going to bringto the Dallas Cowboys defensively in a lot
of ways. You know, hehas been a guy, I would say,
not necessarily the same you know moldor vision as like Bill Belichick,

(17:15):
but he's a guy that, atleast defensively from a coordinator position, has
always kind of outperformed to some ofhis parts. And I think when you
look at the Dallas Cowboys, youknow, defensive roster, you know the
parts I would say are quite strongalready, if not, you know,
if not one of the strongest youknow, defensive units in football from a
talent standpoint, And I think that, you know, where where I sit

(17:37):
with Mike Zimmers, he's very muchgoing to be successful and kind of building
out a scheme that could be reallysuccessful. So I think, you know,
I don't think like the lines aregoing to be all that strong defensively,
but I think the forty eight anda half point total, like this
is a spot where both these teamscould be in somewhat of a feeling out
phase. Obviously, we're gonna havea lot of information, you know,

(17:59):
in the first five weeks of theseason for where they're at offensively. But
I think the forty eight and ahalf is maybe just a little bit too
aggressive for me right now. ButI think it's probably you know, a
situation where I'd rather see things kindof develop. But I do agree with
you. I think if I wasbetting the NFC, you know, conference
championship, one of these two teamsat current prices is very much be my
favorite bet. And I very muchthink like that, you know, this

(18:22):
early season matchup is gonna, youknow, very much point in the direction
of what team could actually be,you know, that second best team in
the NFC and could potentially, youknow, unsee the Sanfranses forty nine ers
when it's all said and done.Yeah, and I like how you brought
up about you know, these aretwo contenders that probably have a good price

(18:44):
and are probably a good projection tosay that they have a good chance of
winning at least the NFC, ifnot you know, going to the Super
Bowl, and a corollarya to kindof this game that I looked at was,
you know, the old division rivalbetween the Eagles and the Cowboys Week
ten, Week seventeen at summer sportsdot com. Right now, we have

(19:06):
relatively high chances of both of themwinning the Super Bowl, you know,
five point one percent, four pointfour percent. But what's interesting is is
both of these teams are kind ofon the rocks. You know. There
was a lot of talks about theEagles having a coaching shift, obviously bringing
in some new down the sideline coacheswhile sticking with Sirianni. The Cowboys were

(19:27):
expected to make a lot of freeagency moves. Didn't I like their draft.
I thought they did some pretty goodthings. But it's interesting to see
how they will progress. It's adifficult division. The Commanders have made a
ton of investments basically across the board, all the way from ownership to the
front office, analytics, scouting,coaching, offense, defense have made a

(19:52):
lot of changes. It'll be interestingto see how that kind of falls into
place. And I think both thoseWeek ten week seventeen games will be important.
And so one other kind of offthe beaten path game that I wanted
to discuss was forty nine Ers atDolphins Week sixteen. This is something that
could change radically. You know,the Dolphins were in a tough cap situation

(20:15):
this year. We could see somefall off, you know, Tyreek Hills
getting older, Tuus had injury concerns, the forty nine ers had a change
on defense. Christian McCaffrey could couldbe getting older or losing a step.
Do you think that that game,Ben, will actually be an interesting game
by the time we get to weeksixteen, especially given what you said about

(20:37):
the forty nine ers not necessarily havinga great price right now. Yeah,
I mean I think it is youknow interesting obviously, you know where you
fall out of Miami, Like,I feel like just in general, they
are one of the most difficult teamsto project heading into this season. I
do think they probably have one oflike the widest distributions for the where could

(21:00):
end up to me, like,there are maybe paths to them, you
know, at least being like contendersfor the number two or number one overall
seed in the AFC, But there'svery much paths to them, you know,
not even really being you know,relevant in the AFC playoff race as
well. But I think you know, overall, you know, I would
say that they don't really have theworst of schedules, especially starting off,

(21:25):
like I mean, they have twohome games to start, you know,
Jacksonville, then the quick turnaround ofBuffalo week two. I think very much
probably favors you know, the MiamiDolphins in that sort of situation. And
then I think they have very winale games and know they're traveling cross country
to Seattle in week three, butI mean if you go Tennessee, New
England, Indie or by, like, there's a scenario there where they are,

(21:48):
you know, and in some ways, you know, three and two
maybe four in one on a prettygood start. And I think from that
perspective, that's when you start tosee you know, things in moments filming,
those sorts of things kind of buildfor Miami and you see Mike McDaniel,
you know, kind of have afull off season to really perform well
in that first sort of like sixweek stretch, five week stretch. And

(22:11):
I think that overall like that thatthat would speak to you know, them
at least being relevant come week sixteen. And I do think it is going
to be a really intriguing game becauseto me, I'm not overly optimistic for
where the Miami Dolphins are going tobe defensively. So I very much think
this is going to be kind oflike a you know, a strength versus
weakness tight matchup with the forty nineers offensively versus the Dolphins defensively, and

(22:36):
just how much can Miami's offense kindof keep pace I'm looking for I should
look for the number. I knowthat they're kind of you know, dropping
them as they come basically across sportsbooks, and I don't think we have
one, you know, from whatI've seen right now, but this would
be a spot where, you know, I'm assuming it would probably open,

(22:56):
you know, just as like arough guess maybe at like you know,
minus four and a half minus fivefor San Francisco, and I could see
that, you know, pushing youknow upwards, just kind of based on
where Miami starts off this season.But for me, it would probably be
a stay away. But I verymuch think that, you know, there's
enough scenarios where this game is veryrelevant and it could actually, you know,

(23:19):
potentially set up to be one ofthe best games of this season,
just based on some of the offensiveoutput that both these teams are capable of.
For sure, Yeah, definitely,And so projecting out that far,
particularly for teams like Miami the fortynine ers, it brings out obviously talks
about the preseason win totals futures.This is one of my favorite things to

(23:41):
look at generally. I think itgives obviously a lot of signal of how
the market views teams and what theymay do. But also it generally will
differ from from the projections just becausetypically projections are a little bit more regressed,
so you can see where people aremaybe more bullish, you know,
on a team like you brought upwith the forty nine ers, or or

(24:03):
a little bit more the market maybe a little lower on a team like
you know, the Broncos or thePatriots who drafted quarterbacks and may you know,
see them succeed or see them fall. And so when you look at
all these win totals, basically thelowest that any sportsbook has them, it
seems to be is about four pointfive wins is the lowest. Highest is

(24:26):
typically eleven and a half. Ibelieve is there anything that interests you there?
Yeah, I think it's a Ithink it's a really good question.
You know, in some ways Iwould say, you know, like the
run in which you want or likethe way in which you kind of want
to approach win totals is for me, I have kind of always waited until

(24:48):
the schedule at least to really analyzelike is this even a spot that I
want to enter in the preseason ornot. I think for me, some
of the teams that I think areintriguing at least as like far as needing
more you know research from from myperspective are kind of like the Seattle and
Chicago sort of situations. I dothink they are two teams that you know,

(25:10):
have you have a ton of opportunityto potentially you know, exceed expectations,
and I think do so relatively quicklyjust based on how the schedule sets
up for them. You know,the Bears are sitting at you know eight
and a half win total, whichdoes seem you know, relatively high obviously,
but they are a team that youknow, for all offense purposes is

(25:30):
going to be you know, entirelyremade offensively kind of outside of DJ more
you know, at the skill positionunit. And I think our team that
you know very much could kind ofhave that quick rebound type situation with the
number one overall quarterback prospect and kindof at least, you know, slightly
exceed bending market expectations in year one. So I do think the Bears are

(25:52):
really intriguing. The Seahawks are anotherone that you know, are sitting kind
of in this like middle tier sortof situation seven and a half game wins.
I personally, you know, obviouslythink you know, the forty nine
ers are quite good where you kindof land on, you know, the
Rams and the Cardinals. I thinksome people think the Cardinals in general are
the sort of like a sleepy contendertype team. If that's the case,

(26:15):
I do think the Seahawks are gonnahave a little bit of a struggle going
over seven and a half wins.But this is still a team that I
think has drafted relatively well in recentseasons at somewhat crucial positions, and I
think in a lot of ways it'sstill kind of penny putting it all together.
But I think, you know,kind of with Mike McDonald and the
fold, defensively, I think they'regoing to be there, and I think
offensively they at least have the offensiveline and running back to be somewhat productive

(26:38):
moving in the football have some receiversin place, and I think overall,
you know, it could be alittle bit better from an offensive standpoint as
well. So I think the Seahawksand Bears, if you are kind of
looking to play some overs, I'mvery much the spots that I would gravitate
towards right now. Right of someof the teams that I was really interested
in what their win totals were wasnumber one. These are all kind of

(27:03):
on the lower side bend, butthe the Giants are typically at that six
and a half mark. I waskind of surprised that they were in that
class rather than in the five anda half class which currently on most sportsbooks.
The Broncos, the Patriots, andthe Panthers, they're sitting. The
NFL put out a graphic just interms of opponent win percentage, which I
think from last year, which Ithink is a good feature to put in

(27:26):
a model for projecting out these wintotals. I don't think it's the end
all be all, but it's agood start. They're sitting, you know,
at six in that rating, harderschedule. We're going to have to
play, you know, the Commander'sCowboys, Eagles, We already talked about
that division. I expected them tobe in that kind of five and a
half range. And then another team, which was interesting kind of on both

(27:51):
sides to me, was the Broncos. I kind of expected them. Also,
some sportsbooks are listing teams at thefour and a half class in terms
of four and a half wins.I kind of expected them to be in
the four and a half class andthought that they, you know, have
a decent chance to be the worstteam in the league. I think at

(28:14):
Summer Sports in terms of getting thenumber one pick, I think we have
them as like first or second.But at the same time, they have
a, you know, not areally hugely difficult schedule. And also last
year they were in a situation earlyin the season where they were getting absolutely
blown out, you know, thefamous Miami seventy to whatever game, and

(28:36):
then they rallied back and kind ofwe're in the playoff picture for a hot
second. And so for that reason, obviously they have a new quarterback,
a conservative quarterback. Obviously, inthe later Breeze years, Sean Payton was
able to scheme up a kind ofconservative passing game plan that relied on an
accurate quarterback which I think Bonix hasshown himself to be a to do at

(29:00):
Oregon. It'll be interesting to seehow the puzzle pieces fit, because I
think this is a team where youcould decently you could feel comfortable betting the
under at a very very low andthen felt even more comfortable obviously betting the
over if you just want to playthe odds and or you think they could
easily get to you know, sixor seven games. So, Ben,

(29:22):
we have a kind of a technicalquestion here which I'd like to kind of
address. Sean has a question ifyou are lower on a team than consensus,
as I may be on the Giants. You know, I'm not a
big sports betting guy. I haven'tbeen able to since I was basically an
athlete working in sports my whole time. What are the ways that you'd like
to bet into that, Like howcan you take a net short on a

(29:44):
team? What are some of thetool tips that you may be able to
share about those markets? Yeah,definitely, I think, you know,
And that's the nice thing about bettingis like there are, you know,
and we're only getting you know,more and more opportunities to meet, you
know, the obvious ones very much. Being you know, win total unders,
and it also you know, itvery much comes down to like why
are you lower on a team aswell, and in a lot of ways

(30:07):
that does lead to you know,there's like you know, it's just kind
of like in some ways, likea zero sum game, even if you
are doing you know, doing itfrom a rating standpoint, like when one
team moves up, typically you knowanother team sort of moves down, and
I think that you know, capturingthat other side, especially in like correlated
type outcomes, is very much howI've tried to approach it. So I

(30:29):
know we don't have some of thesemarkets right now, but I very much
have, like more so been afan of some of like the exact finishes
for division futures bets and those sortsof things, especially if there's like,
you know, a team that Iam very much lower on because I think
they maybe don't fit as well inthe division landscape as what people are projecting,
and I think because of that,I usually have like a higher viewpoint

(30:52):
on another team in that division,and in some ways, finding those different
pricing discrepancies, especially on some ofthose liking active type bets, you are
finding a few opportunities to maybe likehedge some bets between the team finishing third
and fourth and getting pretty long payoutsat that. So that's kind of been
the direction. I've definitely played thatoutside of just you know, the the

(31:15):
more obvious like win total opportunities justgoing under or maybe identifying the one team
that I do like to potentially winthat division as like a counter to the
team playing under. But I thinkoverall, like the exact bets and those
sorts of things, obviously at longerodds, you know, I have some
correlated appeal that I think are reallybeneficial to sports betters. For sure.

(31:37):
That's a fantastic answer, Ben,I really think that would be a great
article on Consumer Sports dot Com.And if I was able to bet,
I would definitely take your advice forit. And I think that's a very
interesting way to look at it,obviously in those divisions, because you know,
each division is different. I knowwhen scouts look at some of the
divisions, they look at something likethe AFC North, where you know,

(32:00):
there's a certain style of play,and I think that honestly, maybe not
if not necessarily safer, an interestingor perhaps diversified way to get into some
of these markets. So I thinkthat's a great answer and in in in
that kind of vein of of somesome tool tips. Uh, looking at
the Week one interesting games, Ibelieve we had another question from Sean,

(32:24):
Are there any interesting Week one teaslegs you like? He he offers up
Bengals minus eight, Steelers plus twoand a half, just some games that
I thought were interesting and would befun to watch. Packers Eagles in Brazil.
I think that's going to be agreat game. It'll be interesting to
see how they adjust to the Brazilsetting. Another one, Texas Texans colts

(32:45):
our colleague Sean saied At say EdSchemes really was excited about this one.
He's excited about the Stroud versus AnthonyRichardson matchup. Obviously former PFF for Bobby
Slovak versus Shane Steichen. Some interestingand innovative offense, some interesting and innovative
quarterbacks. Maybe perhaps the face ofthe league's the faces of the league in

(33:07):
seven to ten years or something likethat. After the Mahomes wave, I'm
really excited about that game as well. And I know our friend Tase Seth
would be very excited about the StaffordBowl Rams Lions a rematch of the playoff
game last year. It'll be interestingto see how the Rams deal with the
loss of Aaron Donald. Obviously,they added Braden Fisks, they added Jared

(33:29):
Vers, both Florida State people,supporting my hypothesis that they're the Villanova of
the NFL. The Villanova guys.Obviously my New York Knicks got to slip
it in succeeding Well, maybe maybethe Rams are betting high much like the
Knicks did on the Nova guys,on the Florida State guys. And we'll
see there are there any interesting gamesor and Tea's legs that you'd like ben

(33:51):
for Week one? Yeah, Ithink you know. Sean asked another really
good question, and I think youknow, just I would just like preface
it by saying just to in general, like teaser legs are are you know,
very much at their best when thelines are most efficient. So not
only is that, you know,like later in the week, as we
get towards game time, like thebetter time to bet teasers, but also

(34:13):
in a lot of ways, youknow, later on in the season,
when we have you know, moreaccurate and better power ratings on teams.
Do you know, does the mathwith teasers, I would say, work
better. But you know, kindof like Shan points out, like there
are a few very intriguing teaser opportunitiescoming up here in week one. He
very much. I would say,you know, Sean pointed out probably my

(34:34):
favorite one Bengals, you know,minus eight low total type situation, which
is very much kind of the directionyou want to go from a teaser standpoint.
I think the Bengals are kind oflike the perfect first leg if the
if the if the Vikings moved outto one and a half, you know,
on that forty one and a halfpoint total, they would be an
option. I think right now they'resitting not closer to like a minus one

(34:57):
fifteen price, so it seems likethat spread I did move, it would
probably move in the other direction,but you know, that would be one,
you know, as we move closerto Week one, definitely an option
if I if I was very muchchoosing one right now, I know it
wouldn't be you know, a greatfeeling or one that I would really be,
you know, all that excited about. But I do think the Steelers,
you know, at plus two anda half up to plus eight and

(35:20):
a half against the Falcons even onthe road, you know, forty three
and a half point total. Itdoes seem like the you know, the
bending market at least on opening isexpecting kind of a slog fest. That
does seem like it would probably bethe one way that the Steelers could really
cover this game. But but Ithink overall, like that would probably be
my second pairing with the Cincinnati Bengals, you know, down to minus two

(35:42):
basically right now. So I thinkthe Steelers Bengals make some sense, But
I do I would say really kindof like that that that that Bengals leg
and I do think we probably willsee some more of these spreads kind of
open up and become you know,teaser type eligible, you know, as
we move closer to Week one forsure. Yeah, and then Sean follows
that up with Kirkank covering eight anda half against Tomlin on opening Day.

(36:06):
It'll be very interesting. I'm excitedto see how Atlanta rolls out and maybe
Ben, you know, maybe wehave a Matt Flynn Russell Wilson situation.
Maybe they're rolling Pinnix out week one, would be very very shocking. But
but something obviously to keep an eyeon, h on on Atlanta for that
purpose. We have another shout outjust before we finished from Brian Slattery Heart

(36:30):
w ben Ba Brown. Obviously theWNBA. Starting yesterday, your t Wolves
been, Your t Wolves are lookinglike they're on the ropes taking it to
basketball. Any final thoughts about yourte Wolves. I mean, I'm just
sad. I mean they did justwell enough to like get me excited to
be like, oh, they're gonnathey're gonna go in and they're gonna like

(36:51):
sweep the Denver Nuggets here in fourgames. And then they just got bolt
raised the last you know, threegames. So the dream was dead and
ended quickly. It was all theoptimism that we were had in Minnesota.
So it's sad that we, youknow, got crushed once again. But
I guess it's JJ McCarthy's season comingup here pretty soon, and for that
I can't wait, right, SoYeah, the lovely thing about sports is

(37:14):
is you go down three two andyou think the world's over, and I
see my knicks go up three two, and I'm getting getting prepared. I'm
preparing the forces for a Eastern Conferencefinal run and maybe a finals run.
Checking all the stats of US versusthe Celtics, but it could just as
easily flip the next game. Andand that's also why you know, the
schedule release is so fun because nowpeople can get super high on their teams,

(37:37):
are super down on their teams,and think they have a The Saints
have a really easy schedule this year, Derek Carr. In the second year,
maybe we're feeling high. Ben,you're talking about JJ McCarthy. Really
exciting from Summer Sports, Ben Brown, Sam brook House, a lot of
exciting stuff going on. Tay Seth, our colleague who generally joins US,

(37:58):
has a piece up right now.Go check it out from Summer Sports.
Thank you for joining, and havea fantastic night and looking forward to a
great NFL season.