June 13, 2024 • 30 mins
Sam Bruchhaus, a Data Scientist at SumerSports, walks you through the key components of WR Justin Jefferson's groundbreaking extension agreement with the Minnesota Vikings, then discusses its downstream effects on WR CeeDee Lamb's negotiations with the Dallas Cowboys and WR Ja'Marr Chase's negotiations with the Cincinnati Bengals.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:21):
Hello everyone, and welcome to theSummer Sports Show. My name is Sam
Brookhouse and I'm super excited to haveyou today. Today we're going to be
discussing a hot topic. Even thoughit's the middle of the summer, the
dregs, the heat of summer,not a lot going on in terms of
play or the draft or free agency, but there's still some really cool extensions
(00:47):
and cat talks going on around mandatorymini camps. So today we're going to
talk about the laws of motion inthe NFL market. Obviously, one of
the great laws of motion, asset out the philosopher Isaac Newton, is
for every action, there is anequal and opposite reaction, and that is
very much the case in the NFLfree agency and extension market. And so
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in this case, the big massivedeal is the Justin Jefferson signing. Justin
Jefferson obviously one of the best widereceivers in the league, and he signed
to a massive, record breaking contractfor a non quarterback, and that's going
to have a lot of verberations.So we'll go into how kind of at
a high level, the agents andthe cap managers look at this, and
(01:34):
this is a great template I thinkfor anyone who's looking to get into the
NFL business, and particularly for peoplewho compete in things like the two Lane
Pro Football Negotiation Competition or any ofthe great analytics competitions that are hosted by
colleges. This is a great podcastto listen to if you want to succeed
(01:56):
in those types of events, andso make sure to like subscribe, say
this for a later date if thoseare things that you're interested in, and
follow at Summer Sports on Twitter,where you can find more great information about
this. So let's get into it. First, Let's look at the players
in terms of who are the stakeholdersin this event. Who's negotiating Obviously other
(02:17):
than Justin Jefferson are a player ofsuch ilk and so in this case it's
Jefferson's agents. That's CAAA Creative ArtArtist Agency, obviously one of the bigger
agencies across industries. Have a lotof power, a lot of clients,
a lot of relationships. Within sports, it's key to understand that if you
(02:38):
are the Vikings front office, it'skey to understand who you're dealing with,
what they've done in the past,and so it's just good to know that
at the top of the line ofwho you're dealing with, because a lot
of this comes down to relationships,as most business do. But let's get
stick in to the numbers, let'sstick into the football, the fun stuff
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that is out there. Primarily,let's start with quote the action. If
we're working in that construct of theactions and the reactions. The first action
obviously was by Justin Jefferson just playingextremely well. Justin Jefferson is a very
young player, twenty five years old. He has an Offensive Player of the
Year award under his belt. Hehas three All Pro nods, three Pro
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Bowls, obviously a ton of leveragefor his agent, but in terms of
his play or how he projects forward, there is kind of one notch in
his armor. There one loss ofleverage from the agent, and that's his
injury last year. However, ifI'm the agent, I'm coming into this
he's still a great player and you'reable to kind of hang your hat on
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the following from last year despite hisinjury. First that he still had over
in a thousand yard receiving season,and though sometimes those counting stats don't mean
a ton, and these kind ofnegotiations is often what you fall back on
because it's something that's easily communicatable betweenagent and general manager. And at the
end of the day, production doesmean something. In yards do mean something,
(04:05):
especially when you're a wide receiver inthis context. Looking at a more
analytical view, he was still fourthand adjusted yards per route run as Persumer
sports last year, so he stillhas a great analytical profile despite missing a
couple of games last year too toinjury. And here's where the key is,
and here's where it kind of moveskind of into understanding what the situation
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that the Vikings are in. Ifyou are justin Jefferson's agent, for example,
and he did a lot of thiswithout Kirk Cousins, without the franchise
quarterback, and that's key because that'sthe exact situation you need him in.
Now the Vikings are sitting there.They just drafted j. J. McCarthy
with a first round pick. Theysigned Sam Donald. Sam Donald's kind of
(04:51):
bounced around the league, been inseveral different systems. Maybe he can play
well, But as if we're justcomparing to their quarter of situation last year,
it's not radically different than when Kirkwent down. Obviously you have a
little bit more primo talent and youknow your select of the draw, but
(05:11):
there's still some uncertainty there at quarterback. Will McCarthy start, won't he so
forth and so on. So ifthe team brings up that he had that
injury last year, and I'm theagent, I'm immediately bringing up, you
know, you did a lot ofthis without Kirk Cousins, and that's what
you need him for this year.So let's kind of dig in deeper now
that we've kind of touched base onwhat the Vikings did last year, on
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how it kind of moves forward,how they've maneuvered in this system and in
this cap system, and how thatprojects forward. So the first thing that
stood out to me personally, obviouslyeveryone will take a different approach on these
types of things, was how theyapproached the TJ. Hockinson extension. Obviously
(05:55):
a little different. They traded forthis player, So of course, if
you're using more assets than just adraft pick, which you already have or
have traded for with draft picks inApril, it's a little different because he's
coming in from another team, he'scoming in as more proven, So obviously
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not apples tables with the Jefferson situation, but we still want to understand kind
of what the key points of thatis. And so according to spot track
dot com, they gave Hockinson tiedfor the biggest signing bonus of all the
tight ends within that position, andthey also gave away the biggest three year
cash flow in the market according tothe spot Track to TJ. Hockinson.
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That's something I'm making a note ofif I'm Justin Jefferson's agent, why Because
TJ. Hockinson is a pass catcher. He's a guy who is very important
to that offense. However, JustinJefferson has the true accolades, the shining
platinum pedigree and resume to say,look, this is what you were willing
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to give to this player, Iexpect that in return. And so that's
very important. Also something which isa little in the past, particularly since
Cousins has now moved on to theFalcons, but you're looking at Cousins as
guarantees. Obviously those were shorter termdeals when they signed Cousins to those deals,
but they were willing and obviously ableto guarantee a lot of that money.
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And so that's another thing I'm thinkingof in terms of the vikings.
And so given those kind of contractstructures that vague structure, we get a
sense of what the vikings are willingto do. Obviously you can go way
deeper and look at the things they'vedone well deep in the past, but
those are the things that kind ofstood out to me. And then you
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want to look at the wide receivermarket at the NFL level, so we
have an idea of what the vikingsmay be willing to do, particularly you
know with the signing bonus through yourcash the guarantees. Now we want to
stick and check key numbers for aseveral different statistics or contract structures that are
out there. So looking at thewide receiver market, there's a couple key
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elements we just want to take noteof, especially since this is just such
a high level player, a guywho is seems to be wide receiver one
and might even be the best playeroutside of the quarterbacks in the whole NFL.
And so the first value we wantto look at is just total value.
Obviously, this can be a littlefugazy in the NFL where cap can
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change all the time and you canmake all these decisions to rework contract,
but it's still an important number becausethat's what you know goes on social media,
goes on Twitter, goes on ESPN, and gives rise to a lot
of content that will be talked about. And so the key total value figure
that I noted was Davonte Adams.He was sitting there at one hundred and
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forty million dollars in total value.Now he did sign a five year deal,
but one hundred and forty million isis kind of the key value in
terms of total value. And Iwill note like some of these may get
a little confusing and ma seing themseem like I'm just listing them off,
but I will revisit these. Butthese are just the key things that you
have to tick off, and youhave to go into these negotiations kind of
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knowing in the back of your head. So moving on from total value,
we're looking at ap y, theaverage a player is paid per year over
the course of the contract. Stillin that kind of you know cap land,
where a lot of it's adjustable bythe team, but we look at
aj Brown thirty two million dollars.Then we move on to a section that
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is particularly of importance and is leveragedby agents. It's pretty easy to dispel
by the teams given the way thatyou know, NFL teams work on only
a year or two longh long term, more of a short term horizon really
of that two three year horizon whensigning these big contracts. But that's percentage
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of the cap. Percentage of thecap has a lot more draw in sports
like basketball, where cap is prettysmooth out. In the NFL, there
was an unprecedented cap rise this year. So this is something if I'm a
team, I'm kind of pushing backon. If I'm an agent, I'm
harping on. But you look atthe percentage of the cap at time of
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signing of some of these players,and Tyreek Hill sitting at you know,
a very high number of fourteen pointfour to one percent. That's pretty high,
and he signed a four year dealin twenty two. You look into
Bonte Adams at one hundred and fortymillion dollars total value, his percentage of
the cap was more thirteen point fouror five percent, so pretty substantially lower,
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almost a full percentage point lower.And obviously Adams was on that five
year deal. Other things of importantsigning bonus key because obviously that money comes
relatively Now there's structures in the contractthat can be worked out to pay it
out in different arrangements, but it'sguaranteed now, and it also allows the
(11:01):
team to kind of play around andthrow rate some of those values. The
biggest signing bonus was Terry McLaurin,according to spot track dot com twenty eight
million dollars. We want to understandwhat's guaranteed at the date of signing,
what you know will go to yourplayer's pocket. Tyreek Kill fifty two point
five million dollars. Finally, threeyear cash flow an important number because it's
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what you could get in cash inthe three years. Also very important obviously
to ownership who are budgeting and tryingto make decisions so forth and so on.
And that three year cash flow kindof max number is aj Brown at
eighty million dollars. So we haveall these numbers kind of jumbled up in
our head right now. Let's evaluatehow Justin Jefferson's contract went, and then
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we can kind of figure out howthat may have an equal and opposite reaction
down the line in the wider receivermarket. So let's let's look at the
action that the Vikings took recently thatwas based off of Jefferson's play based off
of their understanding of their team.Obviously, the first look is they viewed
Justin Jefferson as someone they absolutely hadto have on their team. And frankly,
(12:11):
I agree, great player, LSUguy, west Bank, New Orleans
guy, great guy to have onyour team all around. And so you
look at the total extension package,and this is when those kind of numbers
I was throwing out there become quitesalient and you'll see why quickly. So
in terms of the total extension package, you know, that's that number we
(12:33):
were talking about. Total value canbe moved around a little bit. It's
one hundred and forty million dollars.It's tied first with Davonte. So it's
clear that you know, the agentor the team or whoever looked at that
DeVante's Davante Adams number and thought tothemselves, okay, I have to that's
our anchor there. We have toget in that that range. If I'm
(12:54):
the agent or if I'm the team, it's gonna be difficult to go outside
of that range. It's clear thatthat was an anchor point, and they
agreed obviously on a contract that wasin that one hundred and forty million dollar
point. So we move on toAPY, another place where it's clear there
was an anchor, a thirty fivemillion dollar APY that's plus, give or
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take about three million over AJ Brown's. So it's clear that a line was
set, offence was set. Youknow, they they looked at that AJ
Brown contract and the agents felt thatJefferson was a better player than AJ Brown
and that he should commit he shouldtake more money as a result or be
paid more money by the Vikings,and the Vikings clearly agreed in terms of
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that mark that mark. Now again, there's things to be said about,
you know, cap inflation, whatteams can pay, what teams are willing
to pay. But you know,in terms of dollars and cents, it's
still a slight bump over that AJBrown number, and it's clear that that
was kind of the de marketing linein terms of APY. Now here's where
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it starts getting interesting in terms ofpercentage of the cap. Obviously the cap
was a little weird due to COVIDprior to now we have this huge bump.
There's some stuff going on there.But he's actually between tyreek Kill and
Davante. He's in between, inthat in between area of that fourteen point
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four percent number and that thirteen pointfour percent number, it's clear ish maybe
it was stuck in the dollar figures, but an agent obviously would be like,
well, you know, percentage ofthe cap, this is how much
you can pay. And then theCBA stipulates that you do have to pay
a lot of money, and soif you're gonna spend that money, like,
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let's make sure it comes to myclient. And so maybe the Vikings
if that did come up, theVikings did hit back, as I said,
is typically the case, and belike, okay, percentage of the
cap is one thing, but dollarsand cents is what this market is.
If this is something that's important toyou, you can give you slightly underneath
the Tyrey Kill number and not justabsolutely blow it out and save yourself some
(15:05):
money. There. Don't know ifthat's a major part, but it is
an interesting leverage point that an agentmay have or a team may have to
prepare for. And then finally,here's where it gets fascinating, is much
like they did with the Kirk Cousinscontract, there's places where the Vikings just
went way over the north in termsof signing bonus thirty six plus million dollars
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plus nine almost about plus nine milliondollars over that Terry McLaurin figure of twenty
eight million dollars that I talked about. That's a huge jump. Then you
look at guaranteed at signing eighty eightpoint seven million dollars, way way way
over what we've seen in terms ofguaranteed that signing, way over that tyree
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Kill number. Maybe that's something thatwas just very very important. Now there
are convertible elements of some of thisstuff. There's ways that the guarantee is
practically guaranteed, but there is somemovement that's available from the vikings on that
side. But still big jump,big time reset of the market there.
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And then we look at the threeyear cash another big jump from this deal
of you know, over just underninety six million dollars a year excuse me,
ninety six million dollars for the threeyears. So another big jump fifteen
point seven over that aj Brown youknow, eighty million dollars three year cash
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flow. So this is where westart seeing the real reactions come and the
tensions across the league and the negotiationsstart crystallizing in what some of these negotiation
points are going to be based offof this absolutely top of the line,
biggest non quarterback in history contract ison these spots where there was a big
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jump, and this is where westart looking at the re actions, the
equal and opposite reactions that occur acrossthe NFL. And so the first one
who we want to look at isCede Lamb, who honestly could be looked
at as of his performance last yearas if not one be probably just on
the level of Justin Jefferson in termsof how well he's performed. And I
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was kind of surprised. You thinkof Ceedee Lamb, obviously he's on the
Cowboys, but there's a lot ofbig names on that Cowboys team's Dak Prescott,
Michael Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, TrayvonDiggs, you name it, a
lot of big names that maybe wouldcome ahead of CD in terms of how
he's performed. But you really diginto it, and this is a fantastic
player whose play has probably given hima ton of leverage in that Cowboys negotiation.
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And so you look at some ofhis accolades. He made the Pro
Bowl in each of the last threeseasons, very similar to Justin Jefferson.
He earned an All Pro nod inthe last two seasons, you know,
not quite to the three All Pronons that Jefferson has, but still still
pretty good, you know, Andhe received enough votes last year to come
in third in the Offensive Player ofthe Year votes. See obviously not he
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wasn't named the Offensive Player of theYear, but he's in that caliber of
player, and so obviously you lookat those accolades. Those become leverage points.
If I'm the Dallas Cowboys, I'msaying, okay, third place.
In the words of Ricky Ricky Bobby, if you make first, you last.
That doesn't really make a huge differenceto us, because he didn't win.
But then we dig even further intothe analytics and you start seeing that
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he's really at the top in termsof how he played last year. You
know, according to sumer sports dotcom, first in the league in total
EPA amongst wide receivers, second inreceiver openness as grade by as Graded by
ESPN Analytics. You know, that'sa true tracking stat, something that's really
showing how open a player is.He's fantastic at it. He's fifth in
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adjusted yards per route run and fifthand target shareat year. So he's carrying
a big load for that team andhe's performing quite quite well. So this
is where the leverage starts mounting.The leverage starts mounting, and now you
start seeing some of those places whereJefferson's contract jumped, and you know,
you start picking out what what battlesyou want to fight and where you want
(19:19):
to get in that contract. Andthen obviously we look at at what Dallas
has done in the past. Obviouslywith with Zeke Elliott years and years ago,
they gave a six year, ninetymillion dollar contract which is still having
reverberating effects on the cap. Obviouslyhe's back in a Dallas uniform, but
that contract, he had, youknow, one pretty good year while he
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was on that contract, and thenas running backs typically have done, you
know, that athleticism started to climb, they started to started to be production
decline. You know, Tony Pollardbecomes a true two and then a true
one B running back. All ofa sudden he becomes disposable and they cut
him despite him being on this massivecontract. So that had reverberating effects.
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But if I'm Ceede Lamb's agent,I'm taking note of That's how they handled
Zeke Elliott, who was, youknow, not a quarterback, and they
really wanted to do him right andreally wanted to pay him. Well,
what that leads to, though,strangely, is the way they handled Dak's
contract. And so in the turnin terms of Dak, they tagged him
twice. Actually obviously he played onthe first one. The second time he
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ends up getting the second highest contractat the time of signing, just under
Patrick Mahomes. Now, this couldbe a spot where if I'm the Dallas
Cowboys, I'm saying, all right, CD, you know, like we
were willing to pay pay Dak,and we thought Dak's a great player,
and Dak played well prior to thetime of him signing. But you know,
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like Justin Jefferson is the clear onein our eyes, and you don't
have the accolades that he does,even though they're quite close. And so
let's agree that we handle this inthe same way and we get you right
right there in terms of how much, you know, the one guy the
top of the market is paid,and we'll put you right in there at
second and mesh on some stuff.I don't know if that's really gonna happen.
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In this case because CD has sucha strong analytical background and it was
such a massive piece of what theCowboys did last year. It'll be interesting
to see how this one plays out, especially given he's holding out right now.
He did not attend mandatory in anycamp yet to be seen. If
he shows up to training camp,this could be a sticky situation for the
Cowboys, especially given that they don'thave the super firepower wide receivers to pair
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a very similar to Justin Jefferson ofwhere you know Justin Jefferson doesn't necessarily have
the quarterback and he's there to makethe quarterback look good. In this case
in Dallas, he has the quarterback, but you gotta have pass catchers.
You gotta have pass catchers make aquarterback look good, and so it'll be
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interesting to see how this one playsout. The secondary element of this is
Jefferson's teammate, Jamar Chase. JamarChase is with the Bengals, and this
is a very interesting one because theBengals just re upped Joe Burrow to a
top of the line contract, andso he's in a very interesting space because
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he has a clear wide receiver numbertwo who I believe is currently on the
franchise tag T Higgins, and sothere's a lot of stuff going on in
this space. And so you lookat Jamar Chase's accolades, they're not really
exactly to the level of the CeedeLambs and the Justin Jeffersons. He has
one All Pro, he still hasthe pur Bowls all three years, and
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he has greater than a thousand yardsall three years. However, last year,
you know, missing Burrow, butas we talked about, Jefferson was
missing Cousins for much of the year, still had good analytical profile eighth and
total EPA fifteenth and target shared twentiethand adjusted yards per route run sixteenth,
catch score twenty fourth in YAC andforty second open score all all three of
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those last ones that's graded by ESPN, not necessarily in that, you know,
super duper upper echelon across the boardthat Ceedee Lamb In particularly Justin Jefferson
who received that big contract, werebut still a fantastic wide receiver and still
the clear number wide receiver, numberone on that team. If you look
back at twenty two, you know, dealt with some injuries there, but
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maybe had a little stronger hold giventhat he wasn't playing with a backup quarterback.
Still in that eighteenth twentieth range,some of the advance statistics aggests yards
per route run twentieth and target share. So where Jamar Chase becomes very very
interesting is that the Bengals typically operatein a much different way than a lot
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of the other teams in that theydon't really like guarantee money outside of the
signing bonus, and as a result, there's there's secondary order effects that come
by that in that you know,uh, if you're not going to guarantee
me the money, and I'm anagent and I'm a player, I would
rather you know, in exorbitant apy or maybe we shift that all into
the signing bonus. It's a reallybig signing bonus. We crack that massive
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signing bonus that Justin Jefferson had.So if I'm the Cowboys in particular,
who are you know, dealing withwith the both of these things at the
same time. Obviously, the Bingleshave a set of structural, you know,
organizational guidelines that they're working under,and they did break them for Joe
Burrow, but that's yet to beseen. That's a quarterback, that the
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quarterbacks are governed by a whole otherset of rules in this kind of space
just because of their outside the value. And so if if I am the
Cowboys, I'm in an interesting situationbecause I have this this Jefferson contract hanging
over my head, as you know, the absolute marker of what a certified
(25:03):
number one all pro wide receiver shouldbe making. And on the on the
other side, I have Jamar Chase, who you know, buy a lot
of these statistics, is not inthat level that the Ceede Lambs and the
Justin Jeffersons of the world are,but is considered to be in that level.
If not, like you know,a one seed, then you know,
the highest second tier. I guessone could say that that a person
(25:26):
could possibly be in. And Iknow that the Bengals don't like guaranteeing money.
I have to balance the scales here, you know, I have to
look at Justin Jefferson, who asa ton an outsized amount of guaranteed money.
And then it's very possible that ifJamar Chase resigned, or if Jamar
Chase is extended, he's going tohave an exorbitant ap y. Does that
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give me more to play with?Does that give me less to play with?
Does that box me in and giveCedee Lambs agent, you know,
a pick of the litter of theway he wants to proceed. And so
that kind of leads us into amore philosophical discussion about extensions, which brings
us to you know, the PhiladelphiaEagles for example, of should this have
(26:11):
gotten done you know, last year, or should chase should the Bengals go
ahead and get chased done this year? From a philosophical point of view,
obviously, teams operate in different manners, and teams have different budgets and different
ownership styles and management styles and rostersand so forth and so on. But
what at Suomer Sports here, we'rewe're big on the the you know,
(26:32):
analytical process and the process that hasbeen taken by a lot of the analytical
teams again particular the Philadelphia Eagles,is we want to get this fast,
done fast, and we want tomake sure that we're ahead of it,
and you know, give ussel givegive ourselves some flexibility and how we're going
to operate and then obviously we'll reapthe benefits later. In a in an
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environment where pretty much due to themedia deals that the NFL has reaped recently.
You know, the salary cap isgoing to go up, and moreover,
we just had a year where thesalary cap went way up. If
you get that in ink already,you know, after your third year,
after your fourth year, you maybe able to save some money. Like
(27:18):
down the line, the extension maylook good. That being said, there's
there is always that risk, andI think the Cowboys may be a little
hesitant because of the way that theEzekiel Elliott extension worked out, where you
know, Zeke ended up kind oftailing off, and obviously that's at the
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running back position, very different market, so forth and so on. But
that's kind of the risk you're playing. And so the Eagles have have made
the decision and obviously paid off aswe as we saw where they decided,
you know, we're going to extendDevontae Smith right now. We have aj
Brown on the roster, we haveour quarterback. We're going to extend them
right now. We're going to extendthem at what we think would be top
dollar for this player. And theyprobably saved a lot of money because it
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happened, you know, a monthor so before the Jefferson contract and a
lot of inflation as I highlighted,a lot of inflation in some of these
you know, key signifiers and howthe contract is negotiated, and so the
Eagles have done this over and overand over. In general it's worked out,
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but obviously there is still that riskthat you know, the player for
whether for skill purposes or injury purposes, declines and then you're on the hook
for a very expensive player who youknow, three years ago or two years
ago you thought was fantastic. Andso these are kind of the things that
you know, if you're an aspiringagent, or you're an aspiring person to
(28:47):
work on a team side, oryou're aspiring to come working place like Summer
Sports, which provides analytical and salarycap information and analytics to teams, these
are the things you've got to bethinking about. There's interpersonal element, who's
the agent, how do they workwith us, how have we worked with
the agent? And who are theirother clients. There's obviously an element of
scouting and performance evaluation of you know, this player's played that well, but
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is it as good as this playeror you know, we view it.
We have an analytics heavy process andhis analytics just aren't up to snuff with
maybe what his accolades are. Ifwe're looking at those accolades, because those
are a big, a big leaguewide represented and trusted source, you know,
does he have the accolade that thisplayer has and so forth and so
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on, and then finally digging deepinto what is our structure and process?
Do we want to guarantee money?Do we want to extend early? Do
we want to shift into the signingbonus? Do we want convertible things in
there? Do we want performance bonusesin there? And so forth and so
on, And then finally examining themarket, seeing where people are and dropping
those anchors in places like it appearsthere was with the DeVante Adams contract at
(30:02):
one hundred and forty million total compensationand so forth and so on, and
so I thank you for sticking withme on this solo venture on the Summer
Sports Show. Again, remember tolike subscribe and if you're competing in something
like the two Lane Sports Business Negotiationcompetition, if you're excited to write about
something like this. As more extensionscome in, especially as the CDE LAMB
(30:26):
holdout situation comes in, make sureto save and bookmark this video. It's
been a pleasure to talk with y'all. I will see y'all soon on the
Summer Sports Show from Sam Brookhouse,Data Scientists Summer Sports. Thank you so
much. Have a great day.
Hello everyone, and welcome to theSummer Sports Show. My name is Sam
Brookhouse and I'm super excited to haveyou today. Today we're going to be
discussing a hot topic. Even thoughit's the middle of the summer, the
dregs, the heat of summer,not a lot going on in terms of
play or the draft or free agency, but there's still some really cool extensions
(00:47):
and cat talks going on around mandatorymini camps. So today we're going to
talk about the laws of motion inthe NFL market. Obviously, one of
the great laws of motion, asset out the philosopher Isaac Newton, is
for every action, there is anequal and opposite reaction, and that is
very much the case in the NFLfree agency and extension market. And so
(01:11):
in this case, the big massivedeal is the Justin Jefferson signing. Justin
Jefferson obviously one of the best widereceivers in the league, and he signed
to a massive, record breaking contractfor a non quarterback, and that's going
to have a lot of verberations.So we'll go into how kind of at
a high level, the agents andthe cap managers look at this, and
(01:34):
this is a great template I thinkfor anyone who's looking to get into the
NFL business, and particularly for peoplewho compete in things like the two Lane
Pro Football Negotiation Competition or any ofthe great analytics competitions that are hosted by
colleges. This is a great podcastto listen to if you want to succeed
(01:56):
in those types of events, andso make sure to like subscribe, say
this for a later date if thoseare things that you're interested in, and
follow at Summer Sports on Twitter,where you can find more great information about
this. So let's get into it. First, Let's look at the players
in terms of who are the stakeholdersin this event. Who's negotiating Obviously other
(02:17):
than Justin Jefferson are a player ofsuch ilk and so in this case it's
Jefferson's agents. That's CAAA Creative ArtArtist Agency, obviously one of the bigger
agencies across industries. Have a lotof power, a lot of clients,
a lot of relationships. Within sports, it's key to understand that if you
(02:38):
are the Vikings front office, it'skey to understand who you're dealing with,
what they've done in the past,and so it's just good to know that
at the top of the line ofwho you're dealing with, because a lot
of this comes down to relationships,as most business do. But let's get
stick in to the numbers, let'sstick into the football, the fun stuff
(02:59):
that is out there. Primarily,let's start with quote the action. If
we're working in that construct of theactions and the reactions. The first action
obviously was by Justin Jefferson just playingextremely well. Justin Jefferson is a very
young player, twenty five years old. He has an Offensive Player of the
Year award under his belt. Hehas three All Pro nods, three Pro
(03:22):
Bowls, obviously a ton of leveragefor his agent, but in terms of
his play or how he projects forward, there is kind of one notch in
his armor. There one loss ofleverage from the agent, and that's his
injury last year. However, ifI'm the agent, I'm coming into this
he's still a great player and you'reable to kind of hang your hat on
(03:45):
the following from last year despite hisinjury. First that he still had over
in a thousand yard receiving season,and though sometimes those counting stats don't mean
a ton, and these kind ofnegotiations is often what you fall back on
because it's something that's easily communicatable betweenagent and general manager. And at the
end of the day, production doesmean something. In yards do mean something,
(04:05):
especially when you're a wide receiver inthis context. Looking at a more
analytical view, he was still fourthand adjusted yards per route run as Persumer
sports last year, so he stillhas a great analytical profile despite missing a
couple of games last year too toinjury. And here's where the key is,
and here's where it kind of moveskind of into understanding what the situation
(04:30):
that the Vikings are in. Ifyou are justin Jefferson's agent, for example,
and he did a lot of thiswithout Kirk Cousins, without the franchise
quarterback, and that's key because that'sthe exact situation you need him in.
Now the Vikings are sitting there.They just drafted j. J. McCarthy
with a first round pick. Theysigned Sam Donald. Sam Donald's kind of
(04:51):
bounced around the league, been inseveral different systems. Maybe he can play
well, But as if we're justcomparing to their quarter of situation last year,
it's not radically different than when Kirkwent down. Obviously you have a
little bit more primo talent and youknow your select of the draw, but
(05:11):
there's still some uncertainty there at quarterback. Will McCarthy start, won't he so
forth and so on. So ifthe team brings up that he had that
injury last year, and I'm theagent, I'm immediately bringing up, you
know, you did a lot ofthis without Kirk Cousins, and that's what
you need him for this year.So let's kind of dig in deeper now
that we've kind of touched base onwhat the Vikings did last year, on
(05:34):
how it kind of moves forward,how they've maneuvered in this system and in
this cap system, and how thatprojects forward. So the first thing that
stood out to me personally, obviouslyeveryone will take a different approach on these
types of things, was how theyapproached the TJ. Hockinson extension. Obviously
(05:55):
a little different. They traded forthis player, So of course, if
you're using more assets than just adraft pick, which you already have or
have traded for with draft picks inApril, it's a little different because he's
coming in from another team, he'scoming in as more proven, So obviously
(06:16):
not apples tables with the Jefferson situation, but we still want to understand kind
of what the key points of thatis. And so according to spot track
dot com, they gave Hockinson tiedfor the biggest signing bonus of all the
tight ends within that position, andthey also gave away the biggest three year
cash flow in the market according tothe spot Track to TJ. Hockinson.
(06:39):
That's something I'm making a note ofif I'm Justin Jefferson's agent, why Because
TJ. Hockinson is a pass catcher. He's a guy who is very important
to that offense. However, JustinJefferson has the true accolades, the shining
platinum pedigree and resume to say,look, this is what you were willing
(06:59):
to give to this player, Iexpect that in return. And so that's
very important. Also something which isa little in the past, particularly since
Cousins has now moved on to theFalcons, but you're looking at Cousins as
guarantees. Obviously those were shorter termdeals when they signed Cousins to those deals,
but they were willing and obviously ableto guarantee a lot of that money.
(07:20):
And so that's another thing I'm thinkingof in terms of the vikings.
And so given those kind of contractstructures that vague structure, we get a
sense of what the vikings are willingto do. Obviously you can go way
deeper and look at the things they'vedone well deep in the past, but
those are the things that kind ofstood out to me. And then you
(07:42):
want to look at the wide receivermarket at the NFL level, so we
have an idea of what the vikingsmay be willing to do, particularly you
know with the signing bonus through yourcash the guarantees. Now we want to
stick and check key numbers for aseveral different statistics or contract structures that are
out there. So looking at thewide receiver market, there's a couple key
(08:05):
elements we just want to take noteof, especially since this is just such
a high level player, a guywho is seems to be wide receiver one
and might even be the best playeroutside of the quarterbacks in the whole NFL.
And so the first value we wantto look at is just total value.
Obviously, this can be a littlefugazy in the NFL where cap can
(08:26):
change all the time and you canmake all these decisions to rework contract,
but it's still an important number becausethat's what you know goes on social media,
goes on Twitter, goes on ESPN, and gives rise to a lot
of content that will be talked about. And so the key total value figure
that I noted was Davonte Adams.He was sitting there at one hundred and
(08:46):
forty million dollars in total value.Now he did sign a five year deal,
but one hundred and forty million isis kind of the key value in
terms of total value. And Iwill note like some of these may get
a little confusing and ma seing themseem like I'm just listing them off,
but I will revisit these. Butthese are just the key things that you
have to tick off, and youhave to go into these negotiations kind of
(09:09):
knowing in the back of your head. So moving on from total value,
we're looking at ap y, theaverage a player is paid per year over
the course of the contract. Stillin that kind of you know cap land,
where a lot of it's adjustable bythe team, but we look at
aj Brown thirty two million dollars.Then we move on to a section that
(09:33):
is particularly of importance and is leveragedby agents. It's pretty easy to dispel
by the teams given the way thatyou know, NFL teams work on only
a year or two longh long term, more of a short term horizon really
of that two three year horizon whensigning these big contracts. But that's percentage
(09:54):
of the cap. Percentage of thecap has a lot more draw in sports
like basketball, where cap is prettysmooth out. In the NFL, there
was an unprecedented cap rise this year. So this is something if I'm a
team, I'm kind of pushing backon. If I'm an agent, I'm
harping on. But you look atthe percentage of the cap at time of
(10:16):
signing of some of these players,and Tyreek Hill sitting at you know,
a very high number of fourteen pointfour to one percent. That's pretty high,
and he signed a four year dealin twenty two. You look into
Bonte Adams at one hundred and fortymillion dollars total value, his percentage of
the cap was more thirteen point fouror five percent, so pretty substantially lower,
(10:39):
almost a full percentage point lower.And obviously Adams was on that five
year deal. Other things of importantsigning bonus key because obviously that money comes
relatively Now there's structures in the contractthat can be worked out to pay it
out in different arrangements, but it'sguaranteed now, and it also allows the
(11:01):
team to kind of play around andthrow rate some of those values. The
biggest signing bonus was Terry McLaurin,according to spot track dot com twenty eight
million dollars. We want to understandwhat's guaranteed at the date of signing,
what you know will go to yourplayer's pocket. Tyreek Kill fifty two point
five million dollars. Finally, threeyear cash flow an important number because it's
(11:22):
what you could get in cash inthe three years. Also very important obviously
to ownership who are budgeting and tryingto make decisions so forth and so on.
And that three year cash flow kindof max number is aj Brown at
eighty million dollars. So we haveall these numbers kind of jumbled up in
our head right now. Let's evaluatehow Justin Jefferson's contract went, and then
(11:46):
we can kind of figure out howthat may have an equal and opposite reaction
down the line in the wider receivermarket. So let's let's look at the
action that the Vikings took recently thatwas based off of Jefferson's play based off
of their understanding of their team.Obviously, the first look is they viewed
Justin Jefferson as someone they absolutely hadto have on their team. And frankly,
(12:11):
I agree, great player, LSUguy, west Bank, New Orleans
guy, great guy to have onyour team all around. And so you
look at the total extension package,and this is when those kind of numbers
I was throwing out there become quitesalient and you'll see why quickly. So
in terms of the total extension package, you know, that's that number we
(12:33):
were talking about. Total value canbe moved around a little bit. It's
one hundred and forty million dollars.It's tied first with Davonte. So it's
clear that you know, the agentor the team or whoever looked at that
DeVante's Davante Adams number and thought tothemselves, okay, I have to that's
our anchor there. We have toget in that that range. If I'm
(12:54):
the agent or if I'm the team, it's gonna be difficult to go outside
of that range. It's clear thatthat was an anchor point, and they
agreed obviously on a contract that wasin that one hundred and forty million dollar
point. So we move on toAPY, another place where it's clear there
was an anchor, a thirty fivemillion dollar APY that's plus, give or
(13:16):
take about three million over AJ Brown's. So it's clear that a line was
set, offence was set. Youknow, they they looked at that AJ
Brown contract and the agents felt thatJefferson was a better player than AJ Brown
and that he should commit he shouldtake more money as a result or be
paid more money by the Vikings,and the Vikings clearly agreed in terms of
(13:39):
that mark that mark. Now again, there's things to be said about,
you know, cap inflation, whatteams can pay, what teams are willing
to pay. But you know,in terms of dollars and cents, it's
still a slight bump over that AJBrown number, and it's clear that that
was kind of the de marketing linein terms of APY. Now here's where
(14:00):
it starts getting interesting in terms ofpercentage of the cap. Obviously the cap
was a little weird due to COVIDprior to now we have this huge bump.
There's some stuff going on there.But he's actually between tyreek Kill and
Davante. He's in between, inthat in between area of that fourteen point
(14:20):
four percent number and that thirteen pointfour percent number, it's clear ish maybe
it was stuck in the dollar figures, but an agent obviously would be like,
well, you know, percentage ofthe cap, this is how much
you can pay. And then theCBA stipulates that you do have to pay
a lot of money, and soif you're gonna spend that money, like,
(14:43):
let's make sure it comes to myclient. And so maybe the Vikings
if that did come up, theVikings did hit back, as I said,
is typically the case, and belike, okay, percentage of the
cap is one thing, but dollarsand cents is what this market is.
If this is something that's important toyou, you can give you slightly underneath
the Tyrey Kill number and not justabsolutely blow it out and save yourself some
(15:05):
money. There. Don't know ifthat's a major part, but it is
an interesting leverage point that an agentmay have or a team may have to
prepare for. And then finally,here's where it gets fascinating, is much
like they did with the Kirk Cousinscontract, there's places where the Vikings just
went way over the north in termsof signing bonus thirty six plus million dollars
(15:28):
plus nine almost about plus nine milliondollars over that Terry McLaurin figure of twenty
eight million dollars that I talked about. That's a huge jump. Then you
look at guaranteed at signing eighty eightpoint seven million dollars, way way way
over what we've seen in terms ofguaranteed that signing, way over that tyree
(15:50):
Kill number. Maybe that's something thatwas just very very important. Now there
are convertible elements of some of thisstuff. There's ways that the guarantee is
practically guaranteed, but there is somemovement that's available from the vikings on that
side. But still big jump,big time reset of the market there.
(16:11):
And then we look at the threeyear cash another big jump from this deal
of you know, over just underninety six million dollars a year excuse me,
ninety six million dollars for the threeyears. So another big jump fifteen
point seven over that aj Brown youknow, eighty million dollars three year cash
(16:33):
flow. So this is where westart seeing the real reactions come and the
tensions across the league and the negotiationsstart crystallizing in what some of these negotiation
points are going to be based offof this absolutely top of the line,
biggest non quarterback in history contract ison these spots where there was a big
(16:56):
jump, and this is where westart looking at the re actions, the
equal and opposite reactions that occur acrossthe NFL. And so the first one
who we want to look at isCede Lamb, who honestly could be looked
at as of his performance last yearas if not one be probably just on
the level of Justin Jefferson in termsof how well he's performed. And I
(17:21):
was kind of surprised. You thinkof Ceedee Lamb, obviously he's on the
Cowboys, but there's a lot ofbig names on that Cowboys team's Dak Prescott,
Michael Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, TrayvonDiggs, you name it, a
lot of big names that maybe wouldcome ahead of CD in terms of how
he's performed. But you really diginto it, and this is a fantastic
player whose play has probably given hima ton of leverage in that Cowboys negotiation.
(17:48):
And so you look at some ofhis accolades. He made the Pro
Bowl in each of the last threeseasons, very similar to Justin Jefferson.
He earned an All Pro nod inthe last two seasons, you know,
not quite to the three All Pronons that Jefferson has, but still still
pretty good, you know, Andhe received enough votes last year to come
in third in the Offensive Player ofthe Year votes. See obviously not he
(18:11):
wasn't named the Offensive Player of theYear, but he's in that caliber of
player, and so obviously you lookat those accolades. Those become leverage points.
If I'm the Dallas Cowboys, I'msaying, okay, third place.
In the words of Ricky Ricky Bobby, if you make first, you last.
That doesn't really make a huge differenceto us, because he didn't win.
But then we dig even further intothe analytics and you start seeing that
(18:34):
he's really at the top in termsof how he played last year. You
know, according to sumer sports dotcom, first in the league in total
EPA amongst wide receivers, second inreceiver openness as grade by as Graded by
ESPN Analytics. You know, that'sa true tracking stat, something that's really
showing how open a player is.He's fantastic at it. He's fifth in
(18:56):
adjusted yards per route run and fifthand target shareat year. So he's carrying
a big load for that team andhe's performing quite quite well. So this
is where the leverage starts mounting.The leverage starts mounting, and now you
start seeing some of those places whereJefferson's contract jumped, and you know,
you start picking out what what battlesyou want to fight and where you want
(19:19):
to get in that contract. Andthen obviously we look at at what Dallas
has done in the past. Obviouslywith with Zeke Elliott years and years ago,
they gave a six year, ninetymillion dollar contract which is still having
reverberating effects on the cap. Obviouslyhe's back in a Dallas uniform, but
that contract, he had, youknow, one pretty good year while he
(19:41):
was on that contract, and thenas running backs typically have done, you
know, that athleticism started to climb, they started to started to be production
decline. You know, Tony Pollardbecomes a true two and then a true
one B running back. All ofa sudden he becomes disposable and they cut
him despite him being on this massivecontract. So that had reverberating effects.
(20:03):
But if I'm Ceede Lamb's agent,I'm taking note of That's how they handled
Zeke Elliott, who was, youknow, not a quarterback, and they
really wanted to do him right andreally wanted to pay him. Well,
what that leads to, though,strangely, is the way they handled Dak's
contract. And so in the turnin terms of Dak, they tagged him
twice. Actually obviously he played onthe first one. The second time he
(20:27):
ends up getting the second highest contractat the time of signing, just under
Patrick Mahomes. Now, this couldbe a spot where if I'm the Dallas
Cowboys, I'm saying, all right, CD, you know, like we
were willing to pay pay Dak,and we thought Dak's a great player,
and Dak played well prior to thetime of him signing. But you know,
(20:48):
like Justin Jefferson is the clear onein our eyes, and you don't
have the accolades that he does,even though they're quite close. And so
let's agree that we handle this inthe same way and we get you right
right there in terms of how much, you know, the one guy the
top of the market is paid,and we'll put you right in there at
second and mesh on some stuff.I don't know if that's really gonna happen.
(21:14):
In this case because CD has sucha strong analytical background and it was
such a massive piece of what theCowboys did last year. It'll be interesting
to see how this one plays out, especially given he's holding out right now.
He did not attend mandatory in anycamp yet to be seen. If
he shows up to training camp,this could be a sticky situation for the
Cowboys, especially given that they don'thave the super firepower wide receivers to pair
(21:42):
a very similar to Justin Jefferson ofwhere you know Justin Jefferson doesn't necessarily have
the quarterback and he's there to makethe quarterback look good. In this case
in Dallas, he has the quarterback, but you gotta have pass catchers.
You gotta have pass catchers make aquarterback look good, and so it'll be
(22:03):
interesting to see how this one playsout. The secondary element of this is
Jefferson's teammate, Jamar Chase. JamarChase is with the Bengals, and this
is a very interesting one because theBengals just re upped Joe Burrow to a
top of the line contract, andso he's in a very interesting space because
(22:26):
he has a clear wide receiver numbertwo who I believe is currently on the
franchise tag T Higgins, and sothere's a lot of stuff going on in
this space. And so you lookat Jamar Chase's accolades, they're not really
exactly to the level of the CeedeLambs and the Justin Jeffersons. He has
one All Pro, he still hasthe pur Bowls all three years, and
(22:48):
he has greater than a thousand yardsall three years. However, last year,
you know, missing Burrow, butas we talked about, Jefferson was
missing Cousins for much of the year, still had good analytical profile eighth and
total EPA fifteenth and target shared twentiethand adjusted yards per route run sixteenth,
catch score twenty fourth in YAC andforty second open score all all three of
(23:12):
those last ones that's graded by ESPN, not necessarily in that, you know,
super duper upper echelon across the boardthat Ceedee Lamb In particularly Justin Jefferson
who received that big contract, werebut still a fantastic wide receiver and still
the clear number wide receiver, numberone on that team. If you look
back at twenty two, you know, dealt with some injuries there, but
(23:33):
maybe had a little stronger hold giventhat he wasn't playing with a backup quarterback.
Still in that eighteenth twentieth range,some of the advance statistics aggests yards
per route run twentieth and target share. So where Jamar Chase becomes very very
interesting is that the Bengals typically operatein a much different way than a lot
(23:55):
of the other teams in that theydon't really like guarantee money outside of the
signing bonus, and as a result, there's there's secondary order effects that come
by that in that you know,uh, if you're not going to guarantee
me the money, and I'm anagent and I'm a player, I would
rather you know, in exorbitant apy or maybe we shift that all into
the signing bonus. It's a reallybig signing bonus. We crack that massive
(24:19):
signing bonus that Justin Jefferson had.So if I'm the Cowboys in particular,
who are you know, dealing withwith the both of these things at the
same time. Obviously, the Bingleshave a set of structural, you know,
organizational guidelines that they're working under,and they did break them for Joe
Burrow, but that's yet to beseen. That's a quarterback, that the
(24:41):
quarterbacks are governed by a whole otherset of rules in this kind of space
just because of their outside the value. And so if if I am the
Cowboys, I'm in an interesting situationbecause I have this this Jefferson contract hanging
over my head, as you know, the absolute marker of what a certified
(25:03):
number one all pro wide receiver shouldbe making. And on the on the
other side, I have Jamar Chase, who you know, buy a lot
of these statistics, is not inthat level that the Ceede Lambs and the
Justin Jeffersons of the world are,but is considered to be in that level.
If not, like you know,a one seed, then you know,
the highest second tier. I guessone could say that that a person
(25:26):
could possibly be in. And Iknow that the Bengals don't like guaranteeing money.
I have to balance the scales here, you know, I have to
look at Justin Jefferson, who asa ton an outsized amount of guaranteed money.
And then it's very possible that ifJamar Chase resigned, or if Jamar
Chase is extended, he's going tohave an exorbitant ap y. Does that
(25:48):
give me more to play with?Does that give me less to play with?
Does that box me in and giveCedee Lambs agent, you know,
a pick of the litter of theway he wants to proceed. And so
that kind of leads us into amore philosophical discussion about extensions, which brings
us to you know, the PhiladelphiaEagles for example, of should this have
(26:11):
gotten done you know, last year, or should chase should the Bengals go
ahead and get chased done this year? From a philosophical point of view,
obviously, teams operate in different manners, and teams have different budgets and different
ownership styles and management styles and rostersand so forth and so on. But
what at Suomer Sports here, we'rewe're big on the the you know,
(26:32):
analytical process and the process that hasbeen taken by a lot of the analytical
teams again particular the Philadelphia Eagles,is we want to get this fast,
done fast, and we want tomake sure that we're ahead of it,
and you know, give ussel givegive ourselves some flexibility and how we're going
to operate and then obviously we'll reapthe benefits later. In a in an
(26:52):
environment where pretty much due to themedia deals that the NFL has reaped recently.
You know, the salary cap isgoing to go up, and moreover,
we just had a year where thesalary cap went way up. If
you get that in ink already,you know, after your third year,
after your fourth year, you maybe able to save some money. Like
(27:18):
down the line, the extension maylook good. That being said, there's
there is always that risk, andI think the Cowboys may be a little
hesitant because of the way that theEzekiel Elliott extension worked out, where you
know, Zeke ended up kind oftailing off, and obviously that's at the
(27:40):
running back position, very different market, so forth and so on. But
that's kind of the risk you're playing. And so the Eagles have have made
the decision and obviously paid off aswe as we saw where they decided,
you know, we're going to extendDevontae Smith right now. We have aj
Brown on the roster, we haveour quarterback. We're going to extend them
right now. We're going to extendthem at what we think would be top
dollar for this player. And theyprobably saved a lot of money because it
(28:06):
happened, you know, a monthor so before the Jefferson contract and a
lot of inflation as I highlighted,a lot of inflation in some of these
you know, key signifiers and howthe contract is negotiated, and so the
Eagles have done this over and overand over. In general it's worked out,
(28:26):
but obviously there is still that riskthat you know, the player for
whether for skill purposes or injury purposes, declines and then you're on the hook
for a very expensive player who youknow, three years ago or two years
ago you thought was fantastic. Andso these are kind of the things that
you know, if you're an aspiringagent, or you're an aspiring person to
(28:47):
work on a team side, oryou're aspiring to come working place like Summer
Sports, which provides analytical and salarycap information and analytics to teams, these
are the things you've got to bethinking about. There's interpersonal element, who's
the agent, how do they workwith us, how have we worked with
the agent? And who are theirother clients. There's obviously an element of
scouting and performance evaluation of you know, this player's played that well, but
(29:14):
is it as good as this playeror you know, we view it.
We have an analytics heavy process andhis analytics just aren't up to snuff with
maybe what his accolades are. Ifwe're looking at those accolades, because those
are a big, a big leaguewide represented and trusted source, you know,
does he have the accolade that thisplayer has and so forth and so
(29:36):
on, and then finally digging deepinto what is our structure and process?
Do we want to guarantee money?Do we want to extend early? Do
we want to shift into the signingbonus? Do we want convertible things in
there? Do we want performance bonusesin there? And so forth and so
on, And then finally examining themarket, seeing where people are and dropping
those anchors in places like it appearsthere was with the DeVante Adams contract at
(30:02):
one hundred and forty million total compensationand so forth and so on, and
so I thank you for sticking withme on this solo venture on the Summer
Sports Show. Again, remember tolike subscribe and if you're competing in something
like the two Lane Sports Business Negotiationcompetition, if you're excited to write about
something like this. As more extensionscome in, especially as the CDE LAMB
(30:26):
holdout situation comes in, make sureto save and bookmark this video. It's
been a pleasure to talk with y'all. I will see y'all soon on the
Summer Sports Show from Sam Brookhouse,Data Scientists Summer Sports. Thank you so
much. Have a great day.
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