Invest or Drink?

This episode of Talking Real Money tackles myths about the Federal Reserve and interest rates, explains why mortgage and Treasury rates don’t automatically follow Fed moves, and reminds listeners that markets usually price in expected changes. Don and Tom then pop the cork on wine investing, showing that after costs it performs about as well as plain bonds—and far worse than a 60/40 portfolio. They compare wine and tobacco “sin stocks,” highlight the volatility of individual companies like Constellation Brands and Altria, and use that as a cautionary lesson against stock-picking. Listener calls cover asset location strategies (Roth vs. taxable vs. HSA), the realities of buffer ETFs, and how to evaluate fiduciary firms like Prairie View Partners (now Savant). As always, the conclusion is clear: keep it simple, diversify, and drink the wine instead of investing in it. 0:04 Old-fashioned call-in intro and Fed rate cut discussion 1:33 Myths about Fed decisions and mortgage/consumer loan rates 3:21 Treasury yields, market reactions, and rate expectations through 2026 6:16 Why markets often anticipate rate changes in advance 7:40 Transition into alternatives and “exciting” investments 9:03 Wine as an investment: storage, insurance, dealer costs 10:38 Average returns vs. net after-cost reality (bonds beat wine) 12:46 Stocks and bonds outperform—“invest in markets, drink the wine” 14:08 Constellation Brands stock history as a volatility case study 17:37 Altria (tobacco) stock comparison and “sin stock” volatility lesson 20:16 Small percentage of individual stocks outperform T-bills (Bessembinder research) 21:39 Listener: Asset location strategy (taxable, Roth, HSA) 24:58 ETFs changing the asset location conversation 27:10 Treatment of HSAs as Roth-like for medical use vs. IRA-like otherwise 28:42 Listener: Buffer funds (“boomer candy”) and why they’re costly gimmicks 32:54 Reminder that many investors panic out of markets at the worst times 33:42 Listener: Emergency fund and avoiding 1099s (spoiler: you can’t) 34:58 Listener: Evaluating fiduciary firm Prairie View Partners (merged with Savant) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices