Nothing Wins

Don and Tom dive into a new Morningstar report showing that tactical allocation funds—those run by “smart” managers who actively shift investments—significantly underperformed simple buy-and-hold index portfolios. They unpack why doing nothing often wins, discuss investor behavior gaps, and revisit the power of staying the course. Listener questions follow on mortgage payoffs, TIAA advisory fees, and adjusting stock/bond splits in retirement. The episode wraps with Don revealing his personal creative project—his short story A Chance of Death on his LitReading podcast—and a teaser for his next story, Murder of Crows. 0:23 Morningstar headline: tactical allocation funds lose to “do-nothing” portfolios 1:45 What tactical allocation funds really are (a.k.a. expensive market timing) 2:52 Morningstar urges investors to “stay the course” 3:04 Revisiting “Mind the Gap” and why investors underperform their own funds 4:28 Data comparison: $10k in tactical vs. passive portfolio over 10 years 5:31 Why professionals can’t beat buy-and-hold investors 6:51 Human behavior, arrogance, and the illusion of market-timing skill 8:37 The need for a written plan and risk-based portfolio 9:58 If you have a plan, market noise stops mattering 10:22 Tangent: WWII documentaries vs. Taylor Swift’s Miss Americana 11:21 Listener question #1 – Paying off a low-rate mortgage vs. investing 13:35 Math and emotion collide: cheap money, liquidity, and peace of mind 15:35 Listener question #2 – TIAA Wealth Management fees and fiduciary standards 18:31 Reading TIAA’s ADV: possible fees up to 2% on small accounts 20:08 Comparing local RIAs vs. large institutions 21:08 Clarifying blended fees and fund costs 21:47 Listener question #3 – Vanguard advisor suggesting 60/40 allocation 22:53 Risk tolerance vs. risk need – the real balance 24:05 Investment Policy Statements and Vanguard’s advisory limitations 25:46 Call for more listener questions and upcoming Q&A shows 26:15 Don plugs Lit Reading and his new original story “A Chance of Death” 28:24 How AI collaboration shaped the story’s creation 30:59 Discussion of his next story, “Murder of Crows” 32:17 Invitation for audience feedback on Lit Reading stories Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices