Too Great Expectations

Don and Tom break down the overhyped expectations around recent market returns, referencing Jason Zweig’s analysis of 230 years of stock market data. They emphasize that spending and saving habits matter more than chasing 15% returns, and explain why realistic planning using a 3–6% real return assumption over 30-year rolling periods is more prudent. They also tackle questions about RMD strategies from Vanguard IRAs and the TSP’s F and G bond funds. The show ends with a tongue-in-cheek breakdown of NFL team valuations—yes, the Raiders rank surprisingly high. 0:04 Welcome, fatuousness defined, and realistic investing begins 0:52 Why you shouldn’t expect 15% returns forever—even if you got them 1:52 What Jason Zweig’s long-term data reveals about stock returns 2:51 Bogle warned us not to expect high returns—now what? 4:16 Spending and saving: more important than investing performance 5:08 Don’s “prepaid gains” analogy for future expectations 7:00 Real market returns since 1793—spoiler: they’re not 15% 8:58 Stocks might only beat inflation by 3%—and that’s still a win 9:45 Start saving early: waiting until 50 is a losing game 10:18 How to plan with lower expected returns (realistic scenarios) 11:56 Use expected return to guide your savings rate (3% = save 20%) 13:45 “You weren’t smart. You were lucky.” Now diversify. 15:31 Tom’s wife dreads football season—Don celebrates Chiefs loss 18:42 Listener RMD question: Which ETFs get tapped at Vanguard? 19:29 Bonds are back: fixed income up ~6% this year 20:24 Rebalancing vs. just selling: how to handle RMDs smartly 21:04 Raiders rank #4 in NFL valuations… but why? 24:36 Top NFL team values: Cowboys rule, Cardinals drool 27:27 Arizona sports: low attendance, low valuations 28:59 TSP question: F fund vs. G fund—what to use, when 30:25 Don favors the G fund for simplicity and ballast 31:45 Tom and Don disagree—F fund might return more, but… 32:26 Don’s vegetable-spiked coffee and Justin’s final TSP allocation 34:13 Listener Barbara has multiple annuities—Don and Tom say, “Yikes” 35:47 Why you probably talked to a salesperson, not a fiduciary 37:04 The free Appella consultation is steak-free and no-pressure Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices