Unrealistic Expectations

Don and Tom take a reality sledgehammer to investors’ wildly inflated expectations for stock market returns. A new survey shows average Americans expect 12.6% after inflation, even as historical real returns rarely crack 9%. They explore how this overconfidence—fueled by recency bias and company loyalty—leads to dangerous behavior like under-saving, over-spending, and poorly diversified portfolios. With real-world client stories, historical decade-by-decade returns, and a deep dive into how long it takes portfolios to recover after major drops, they reinforce the need for long-term discipline and diversified planning. The episode wraps with audience questions on umbrella policies, retirement bond ladders, and smart ETF tax-loss harvesting strategies. 0:04 Don delays the podcast waiting for Tom’s arrival (with British accent) 1:30 Survey shock: Investors expect 12.6% real annual returns 2:28 Reality check: Actual global stock returns are closer to 9% 3:45 Dangerous real-world portfolios: 100% S&P 500 near retirement 5:30 One-stock portfolios tied to employers—what could go wrong? 6:50 Under-saving due to false optimism about future returns 7:14 Decade-by-decade historical real returns from 1930–2020s 10:13 The Dave Ramsey fantasy: 8% withdrawals on 12% returns 10:40 Recency bias: Why we forget recent downturns so fast 11:05 50% of years see 10% drops; 1 in 3 see 20% drops 12:47 Emotional investing vs. disciplined long-term planning 13:39 Listener Q: How long to recover from a major market drop? 14:22 Diversification shortens recovery time historically 15:36 Build for the worst case: 50% stock market drop 16:32 Listener Q: Does Ivan need an umbrella policy with $350K net worth? 17:57 Umbrellas are rarely needed—but the industry sure sells them 18:54 Listener Q: Is LifeX 10-year bond ladder a good retirement tool? 20:20 It’s mostly return of principal—DIY Treasury ladders are cheaper 22:40 Don’t be fooled by nice websites and big yield promises 23:24 Listener Q: Can AVGE replace four-fund ETF portfolio for tax loss harvesting? 24:32 Swap Avantis for DFA funds—nearly identical, wash-sale safe 25:56 Parting shots: Buy a decent mic, don’t let emotion control your portfolio Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices