October 1, 2025 • 32 mins
The episode explores how the rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is significantly altering the American job market, leading to a notable resurgence of blue-collar careers among younger generations. As AI technology increasingly threatens to automate or displace many white-collar jobs like accounting and administrative support, young workers are seeking stability in skilled trades such as plumbing and electrical work. This shift is driven by the relative immunity of blue-collar jobs to automation, along with compelling economic incentives like competitive wages without significant student debt from four-year degrees. While acknowledging challenges such as physical demands and training access, the episode concludes that prioritizing vocational education and policy changes is crucial to sustaining this trend, which is reshaping cultural perceptions of success and strengthening vital economic sectors.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the deep dives. For gosh generations. The whole
idea of the American dream it was really tied to college,
wasn't it.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Oh? Absolutely, the path seemed set in stone.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Yeah, get the degree, land, the white color job. That
was it. Stability, money, prestige. It all seemed to follow
from that office job.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
It was the gold standard, unquestioned advice in schools around
the dinner table. That was the playbook for decades.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
But you know, looking at the sources we've gathered for
this deep dive, something really really fascinating is happening, almost paradoxical,
a huge shift exactly. People are calling it the Great
reversal because while those classic office jobs, the desk careers
are feeling some serious heat from.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Aik estential heat, you could say.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Right, meanwhile, hands on blue collar work is popping up.
Is this like unexpected path to stability and success, especially
for younger Americans?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
And what's really compelling looking at the sources is that
this isn't just you know, some nostalgic trend. It's driven
by hard.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Economics, pure calculus.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Yeah, pure calculus. Gen Z, younger millennials, they're making really
pragmatic choices they're looking at job security, they're looking at
avoiding crippling debt. That's what this deep dive is all about.
We're looking at the source material on how AI is
shaking up the job market and why these young workers
are often skipping college for well for a hard hat.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
So our mission today uncover the drivers. What's the economic engine,
what's the tech disruption doing to the office, and what
cultural shifts are making this blue collar renaissance happen.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Okay, but first, let's just quickly set the stage. The
old definitions white collar office degree needed often abstract work,
blue collar trades manufacturing hands on stuff.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
That need hierarchy. It's crumbling. The desk job isn't automatically
on top anymore. Economic pressure is really changing the game.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
And it starts with the tech. AI is now good enough,
mature enough to do tax that frankly used to justify
those big salaries and fancy degrees. To get why the
trade ades are booming, you first have to understand the
reckoning happening in the office.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Okay, let's really dig into this AI. We've talked about
it for years like some future threat, right, but the
sources are clear it's not future anymore. It's here.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
It's working operational, yeah, highly capable. It's already in big companies,
and it's quickly taking over tasks that used to be
well entry level human jobs.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
So what specific AI tech are we talking then? Here?
What's really driving this change in the white collar world.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Well, there are three main ones really shaking things up. First,
you've got machine learning. This stuff can analyze huge amounts
of data, make predictions things that used to take whole
teams of analysts. Second is natural language processing NLP. That's
the engine behind things like chat GPT, the large language mode.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Okay, they can.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Draft emails, write reports, summarize legal documents, even generate marketing
copy and honestly, sometimes you can't tell it wasn't a
human junior staffer.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
And Third, there's robotic process automation or RPA, think automating
repetitive back office stuff, processing invoices, basic accounting tasks, managing
simple customer queries, stuff like that.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
So it's not just one thing, it's this combination hitting
from different angles exactly.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
It's the convergence. And that's what makes whole job categories
start to look vulnerable. And the data on vulnerability it's
pretty sobering. This isn't a twenty fifty problem.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
Okay, give us the numbers. How bad is it?
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Well? A McKinsey report from twenty twenty three laid it
out pretty starkly. It estimated that up to thirty percent
thirty percent of current white collar job tasks could potentially
be automated by twenty thirty.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
By twenty thirty, that's that's really soon.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
It's basically around the corner. Almost a third of the
work done in offices today potentially replaceable within what six years?
This isn't just an academic discussion. It's a direct threat
to millions, especially people doing info based or clerical work.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
So if thirty percent of tasks are at risk, which
specific roles are feeling the pressure most acutely right now?
Speaker 2 (03:56):
The ones that rely heavily on processing information and creating
somewhat standardized outputs. So think accounting and bookkeeping. URPA machine
learning are really good at that. Okay, Legal research, specialized
AI can tear through case law way faster than paralegals
or junior associates. Marketing content generation llms can churn out
(04:17):
ad copy blog posts much faster and cheaper, and then
there's a huge chunk of administrative support rules, scheduling, basic comms,
data entry, A lot of that is getting automated.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
And this hits right at the foundation of the traditional
middle class, right, which brings us to this idea, the
debt trap.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Yeah, it's a cruel twist, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
You spend four or five years wrack up tens of
thousands in debt for a job that's suddenly looking a
whole lot less secure than when you start in college.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
The sources really hammer this point. Young people were sold
this idea college degree equals financial safety, so they took
on debt, sometimes forty thousand dollars, sixty thousand dollars, even
more huge amounts, assuming a stable, well paying white collar
job was waiting. But now they hit the mark, and
that stability it's shaky. The return on investment, the ROI
(05:04):
on that expensive degree, it's seriously undermined by automation risk
and those loan payments.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
And what's really startling is how fast this is happening.
We kind of always assumed automation would hit manufacturing first,
the factory floor, but there was an Economic Policy Institute
study in twenty twenty four that flipped that idea.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
That finding is so important because it goes against the
historical narrative. The EPI study found job displacement from automation
is actually growing faster in white collar.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Sectors, faster than blue collar, faster.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Than blue collar, the office jobs, the desk jobs. It's
happening quickly, and it's catching a lot of people and
institutions flat footed. The tech, it seems, got better at
handling cognitive repetitive tasks quicker than it got it replicating
complex physical skills and you know, real world judgment.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
Can you give us some concrete examples, like what does
an entry level job look like when AI or say,
gig workers start taking chunks of it?
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Sure, think about an entry level journalist or maybe a
communications assistant. They used to spend hours doing research, writing
routine press releases, basic articles. Now an LM can scan
a company's quarterly report and spit out six different press
release drafts in like seconds.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Or graphic design junior designers doing simple stuff social media banners,
formatting slides, they're finding AI tools like mid Journey or
Dally can do that almost instantly.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Even software development that always felt like the ultimate.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Safe bet, even there AI code assistants are getting really
good at basic coding, finding bugs, doing routine quality checks.
Now it doesn't mean the senior software architect is out
of a job, not yet, not yet, but it means
that entry level team that used to hire, say twenty
new grads might only need five now because the AI
(06:50):
is handling the work the other fifteen used to do.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
So it crowds the entry point massively.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
It makes it incredibly competitive and fragile for new grads
who are already grounding in debt. They've got the ex degree,
but the security they paid for it's just it's evaporating.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
Right, and all that pressure on the office world, that's
the big push factor driving young workers towards the trades.
They're essentially running towards stability.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
And the numbers back this up. Oh yeah, the DATO
confirms it. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS, they
reported solid growth and construction and skilled trades up eight
percent just between twenty twenty and twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Thirty eight percent in three years. That's significant growth, it is, And.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
As you mentioned, the key detail in the sources is
the demographic. We're seeing a noticeable jump in workers aged
eighteen to twenty nine entering these fields.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
So it's not just overall growth, it's the next generation
making a conscious.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Choice, exactly, a deliberate pivot. So let's dive into the
four big drivers the sources identify for this resurgence. Driver
number one may be the most important for long term thinking.
Job security, Okay, driver one, job security and AI resistance.
It boils down to the nature of the work itself.
It requires what the sources call unautomatable hue Men capital
(08:01):
maybe meaning blue collar work demands things AI just isn't
good at yet and might not be for a long time,
like a physical presence, problem solving that isn't linear, that
has to adapt on the fly, and a level of
physical skill, dexterity and interaction with the messy real world.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
Yeah, it's that difference between optimizing something on a screen
and actually doing it in the physical world. AI is
good at the.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
First part, perfect way to put it. AI can design
an incredibly complex energy efficient building plan, fantastic, but it
cannot physically install the plumbing, run the wires, or put
in the HVAC system.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Can't crawl under an old house to see if the
foundation's okay, after a.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Flood exactly That kind of work needs variable, dynamic physical interaction.
Think about an HVAC tech dealing with a busted furnace
in some old building. They have to assess the physical space,
notice maybe some weird corrosion on a part, factor in
the temperature with the customer needs all in real time.
It's judgment, not just kind.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
It's the complexity that comes from the physical world being yeah.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Messy, precisely. And there is a study from the National
Bureau of Economic Research back in twenty twenty three that
confirmed this. It found trades needing high levels of dexterity, adaptability,
and especially that on site judgment, spotting something unexpected, figuring
out a fix right then and there. Those are among
the least likely jobs to be automated anytime soon.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
So these jobs are anchored in the physical that gives
them a security layer. Office jobs are losing, right.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
You can't replace a skilled welder an electrician with a chatbot.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
It just doesn't work.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
Okay, so job security is huge, But let's get real.
It has to be about the money too, right. If
young people are making this switch, the economics have to
make sense.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
Oh. Absolutely. Driver two is all about economic incentives and
debt avoidance. It's the ultimate pragmatic calculation, prestige versus financial reality.
And the reality is the reality is blue collar careers
are now offering really competitive wages, good benefits, packages to healthcare,
often solid retirement plans. But here's the kicker. They offer
(10:00):
this without needing a four year degree and all the
debt that.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
Comes with it.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Okay, give us some numbers.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
What's the pay like, Let's look at the BLS median
annual wages for twenty twenty four. These really tell the story.
Electricians median sixty one five hundred ninety dollars, plumbers median
sixty thousand, ninety dollars.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
Sixty thousand dollars plus median. Now compare that to those
entry level office jobs we talk about the ones vulnerable
to AI.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
The contrast is stark. A new grad with say a
communications degree, might start around fifty five thousand dollars, maybe
sixty five thousand dollars if they're lucky, but they're also
carrying what forty k sixty dollars in student debt right that.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Eats up a huge chunk of their take home pay.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Immediately exactly Whereas the trades person starting around sixty thousand dollars,
They often have zero debt. In fact, they were probably
paid during their apprenticeship. Their actual cash flow, their ability
to save and build wealth, it jumps way ahead of
their college educated peers right from the start.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
That earn while you learn model. That's the game change
of financial.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
It really is. The apprenticeship model flips the script. You
get an income right away, you get training, you get
a clear path to certification, and you do it without
racking up potentially life altering debt.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Is there data on how much debt avoidance factors into
the decision? Yes.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
The National Association of Homebuilders did a survey in twenty
twenty four. Get this, sixty five percent, nearly two thirds
of young people in the trades said no student debt
was a primary reason they chose that career path.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
Sixty five percent.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Wow, that single statistic is almost an indictment of the
traditional college for all model, isn't it. They're actively choosing
immediate financial stability and freedom over the old markers of
academic achievement. It's pure pragmatism.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Okay, that makes total sense financially, which leads perfectly into
Driver three. The cultural shift because for the longest time,
let's be honest, there was a stigma around the trades.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
Oh, a huge stigma, deeply entrenched the idea that if
you were smart, you went to college, you didn't get
your hands dirty.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Right. That's definitely changing, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
It's fading fast. The stigma was propped up by institutions
for decades, but now that the economic winds have shifted
so dramatically, the perception is catching up. And social media
is playing a massive role here. Oh so platforms like
x TikTok they're full of videos showcasing successful trades people.
It's not just about the money they make, although that's
part of it. It's showing their lifestyle, their autonomy, the
(12:23):
businesses they.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Build, like the electrician with their own truck, setting their
own hours.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
Yeah, that kind of.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Thing exactly that It presents the trades as a path
to real independence. And you can trast that with what
you often hear from the white collar.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
World layoffs, burnout, pointless meetings, right.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Constant talk about corporate restructuring, fighting over remote work policies, zoom, fatigue, burnout.
It's a different vibe entirely blue collar work offers something tangible.
You build something, you fix something. There's a sense of accomplishment.
At the end of the day.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
You can actually point to it and say, I did
that drive past the building, flip the switch.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
That tangible result is incredibly appealing, especially to younger generations
who seem disillusioned with abstract corporate goals and endless emails.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
It feeds that need for purpose, maybe authenticity. Seeing the
direct result of your effort.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
I think that's a huge part of it. It's skilled work,
it pays well, and it results in something real and lasting.
That's a powerful combination in today's world.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
Okay, and finally, driver four, this feels like the anchor
that makes the whole shift sustainable. The massive labor shortage
in skilled trades.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
Yes, this is the structural foundation. We're facing a huge
shortage of skilled trades people across the board. Why well,
a couple of big reasons.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Decades of pushing college prep over vocational training.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
That's a huge one. We systemically underinvested in vocational education
for decades. Everyone was pushed towards a four year degree.
At the same time, the existing workforce, the experienced electricians, plumbers,
welders like they're aging out, they're retiring.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
And taking decades of knowledge with them exactly.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
So you've got this shrinking supply of skilled labor right
when demand is booming because of things like you know,
aging infrastructure and needing replacement, new construction, the green energy transition.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
So supply is down, demand is way up.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Basic economics creates an intense mismatch, and this shortage is
what guarantees the job security and drives up the wages
we were just talking about. The numbers are stark. The
Associated General Contractors of America reported in twenty twenty four
that eighty nine percent, almost nine out of ten construction
firms were struggling to fill open skilled labor jobs.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
Eighty nine percent couldn't find the people they needed.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Think about the power that gives the worker. If you
have those skills, companies are desperate for you. You can
command higher pay, better benefits, you have more choice about
where you work. Your skill set is in high demand,
and it's largely resistant to AI. That's about as secure
as it gets in today's economy.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
So this isn't just a temporary blip. It's a fundamental
market correction.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
That's what the sources suggest. A necessary economic correction fueled
by technology, demographics, and changing priorities. Yeah, the data tells
the story, but looking at individual experiences really brings these
drivers home. These profiles are like snapshots of this great reversal.
Let's start with Emma. She's twenty four, a plumber's apprentice
in Ohio.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Okay. Emma's story sounds like it connects a few dots.
She actually has a bachelor's degree right in communications.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
She does the classic path four years, took on debt
for a degree in a field communications that is actually
quite vulnerable to AI content generation, as we discussed, and
she had the job market and hit a wall saturated market,
lots of competition for entry level jobs. It didn't pay
great and didn't offer much of a clear path forward.
But the real blaking point for her, according to the
(15:44):
source material, was the student loan.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Payments, the debt trap we talked about exactly.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
She realized the minimum monthly payment was eating up a
huge chunk of her budget. Even if she did land
one of those mediocre office jobs, it just wasn't adding up.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
So what made her look at plumbing?
Speaker 2 (15:58):
She was drawn by the structure, the clarity she found
out about a local union apprenticeship and get this, it
paid her eighteen dollars an hour right from day one
of training.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Eighteen dollars an hour to learn versus paying tuition right.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Immediate income, no more debt accumulation, and a clear roadmap
to becoming a licensed plumber. It was for her a
much more secure and logical path, and within two years
she was up to twenty eight dollars an hour. She
expects to be fully licensed by twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
What did she say about the switch?
Speaker 2 (16:29):
Her personal take, It really sums up the reversal. Her
quote was something like, I realized I could earn more
as a plumber than in any of the office jobs
I interviewed for, and more importantly, I love working with
my hands and solving real problems.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Wow. Trading the abstract degree for concrete skills and better.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
Pay and crucially debt freedom. Okay, Next up Carlos twenty seven.
He's an electrician down in Texas. His story is a
bit different.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Oh, so, did he skip college altogether?
Speaker 2 (16:59):
He did, completely bypassed the university track, went straight into
an electrical training program right after high school. He saw
the demand, especially in the energy sector in Texas.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Smart move. And he didn't just get a job, he
started his own business.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Yeah, that's the key part of his story. He exemplifies
that entrepreneurial potential within the trades. He didn't just become
an employee. He now runs his own small business doing
what specifically he specialized. He focuses on high demand work
installing complex renewable energy systems, thinks solar panels for homes
and businesses, smart grid integrations. It's specialized technical work and
(17:33):
because it's in high demand, he can command good rates.
Speaker 1 (17:36):
So the trades aren't just about manual labor. They can
be a path to tech specialization and business ownership.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
Absolutely, and his mindset about security really nails that AI
resistance point Driver one, What did he say? His quote
was pretty direct. AI might take over desk jobs, but
it can't climb a pole to fix a power line
or wire a complex solar inverter can't.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
Argue with that the physical reaction of the job.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
It's high stakes, physical work, requiring on the spot judgment
with complex systems. That's his security blanket against automation.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
Okay, one more profile. Ava. She's twenty one, a welder
in Michigan. Her story highlights the cultural shift exactly.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Ava's path shows how the perception is changing, partly thanks
to social media, which we talked about. She wasn't pushed
into welding by a school counselor. She actually got interested
after seeing videos.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
Online, viral videos of welding.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
Yeah. Video is showing the skill, the precision, sometimes the
artistic side of it, and also highlighting the good money
and independence trades people can have. She saw it portrayed
as like a cool, legitimate.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Career, so the online portrayal destigmatized it for.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
Her, seems like it and then she found a quick
path to getting skilled up.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
How quick she did an intensive.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Six month Welton certification program, a great example of how
focused vocational training can lead directly to a good job.
Now she's working in automotive manufacturing, making twenty five dollars
an hour, pretty good for twenty one.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Inner motivation why welding over an office.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
Or quote really captures that generational value shift. I didn't
want to sit in an office all day feeling like
I wasn't accomplishing anything. Welding feels like art, and at
the end of the day, I can see exactly what
I created.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
That desire for tangible results.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Again, yeah, autonomy, tangible skills, a sense of purpose, maybe
even craftsmanship. That seems to be the common thread in
these profiles. They all made a conscious choice for stability,
good income, and escaping debt over the traditional, maybe more prestigious,
but increasingly uncertain, white collar path. They're like the leading
edge of this whole shift.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
Okay, so the case for the trades resurgence is really
strong based on security, economics, culture, demand. But we need
to be balanced here you said earlier, it's not a panacea.
There are downsides, real challenges.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Absolutely, it's crucial to look at the trade offs. Young
workers are essentially swapping the risk of financial debt and
AI displacement for a different set of risks.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
Let's start with the most obvious one, the physical demand
and safety risks. These jobs are tough on the body.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
No question. They are physically demanding. You're often working outdoors
in extreme weather, intense heat, freezing cold. It involves lifting, bending, climbing,
repetitive motions, and exposure to hazards, dust, chemicals, heights, heavy machinery.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Which leads to higher injury rates.
Speaker 2 (20:20):
Definitely the risk of chronic pain, things like back problems
or joint issues is higher, burnout can be physical, not
just mental, and the risk of acute injury is real.
The source's point to BLS data Again. In twenty twenty three,
construction workers had an injury rate of about ten point
two per one hundred full time workers ten percent.
Speaker 1 (20:39):
That's significantly higher than an office job. So the trade
off is clear less financial stress, potentially more physical stress
and risk.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
That's the trade. The profile suggests they understand this, but
the security and the pay make it worthwhile, especially if
safety standards are high. But the long term physical wear
and tear, that's a genuine factor to consider. It requires
a different kind of physical resilience and risk management.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Okay, what about getting ahead in an office there's often
a clear ladder junior senior manager. How does career progression
work in the trades? Are there hurdles there?
Speaker 2 (21:14):
It works differently. The path isn't always as standardized. Yes,
entrue wages are good, but moving up significantly often depends
on specific things like wide. Accumulating specialized certifications is key,
getting your master plumber license or specific welding qualifications or
advanced electrical certifications. Experience counts for a lot building a
reputation for reliability and skill. But the really big jumps
(21:37):
in income and autonomy that often comes from starting your
own business like Carlos did right and running.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
A business as a whole different ballgame. You need skills
beyond just being a good plumber or electrician.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Totally different. Suddenly you're dealing with marketing, bidding on jobs,
managing payroll, insurance, inventory, customer relations. It's a huge leap
from being a skilled technician to being an entrepreneur and manager.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
A leap not everyone wants to make or.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
Is cut out for exactly.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
So while the potential earning ceiling can be very high, reaching,
it involves taking on different kinds of risks and needing
different abilities compared to just climbing the corporate ladder.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Another potential hurdle you mentioned just getting the training in
the first place. The access problem.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
This is a major bottleneck. Demand for workers is skide high,
but the supply of good training programs hasn't kept up everywhere.
That twenty twenty four National Skills Coalition Report found something
pretty shocking forty percent of counties in the US lacks
sufficient vocational training.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
Program forty percent. That's huge, especially when we need these
workers so badly.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
It is huge. It means opportunities are limited, particularly if
you live in the rural area or somewhere far from
a major technical college. You might want the career, see
the benefits, but just can't easily access the training. It
creates an equity issue too. The benefits of this renaissance
aren't spread evenly geographically.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
Okay, final challenge societal bias. We said the stigma is fading,
but it's gone completely.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Not entirely. While things are definitely better, biases still exist.
These trades have traditionally been very male dominated, right, so
women and people from minority groups entering these fields can
still face barriers, sometimes subtle, sometimes not so subtle, things
like lack of mentorship, exclusionary workplace cultures. It can still
be tougher for some groups to break in and succeed.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
So even with the economic logic shifting, some old attitudes
lag behind.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
They do. It takes ongoing conscious effort, better recruitment, strong
mentorship programs, promoting inclusive environments to make sure these high
opportunity fields are truly open and welcoming to everyone. And
that leads us to what needs to happen institutionally. If
this trade renaissance is going to last, and if it's
going to be equitable, we need the system education policy
(23:53):
to catch up and support it. It can't just be
on individuals to figure it.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Out, right, So where does that start? Funding the places
where people learn these skills, community colleges, trade schools.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
That's fundamental. Investment in training is critical. These places need
more funding. They need it to expand their programs because
demanded booming. They need it to buy up to date equipment,
modern welding gear, robotics trainers, sophisticated diagnostic tools, stuff that
matches what's actually used on the job site today.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
And good instructors too, presumably.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Yes, instructors who know the current industry practices. The training
has to be high quality and relevant to the complex
work people like Carlos and Eva are doing. Now.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
Is the government stepping up? Is there federal money flowing
towards this?
Speaker 2 (24:34):
There's some movement the Big Infrastructure build from the Biden
administration in twenty twenty three, it did allocate about one
point two billion dollars specifically for workforce development that includes
apprenticeships and related training.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
So Washington is acknowledging the connection between building stuff and
having people who can build stuff exactly.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
It's a start, but industry groups and advocates, they argue
it's nowhere near.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Enough drop in the bucket compared to decades of neglect.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
That's the critique. They say. The funding needs to be
much larger, more sustained, and it needs to get to
the local level faster without getting stuck in bureaucracy, especially
in areas where the shortages are worse.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
Okay, what about earlier in the pipeline high schools you mentioned,
shop classes got cut back hard in the eighties and nineties.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
Is that reversing thankfully?
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Yes, we're seeing the return of vocational skills, often under
the banner of career technical education or CTE. And this
isn't your grandpa's.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Woodshop, right, It's more high tech now.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
Much more modern. CTE programs involve things like robotics, advanced
manufacturing techniques, computer aided design CAD, training on complex electrical systems.
It's sophisticated stuff designed to lead directly to skilled careers.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
And are more students actually enrolling in these programs?
Speaker 2 (25:49):
Yes, the numbers show a shift. The National Center for
Education Statistics reported a twelve percent increase in CTE enrollment
just between twenty nineteen and twenty twenty three twelve percent.
Speaker 1 (25:59):
That it's a solid trend.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
It is. It shows that students, parents, and maybe even
schools are starting to recognize these pathways as valuable first
choice options, not just Plan B. The momentum is building,
but again, resources are needed to make sure all schools
can offer quality.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
CTE beyond just throwing money at it. What specific policy
solutions do the sources suggest would really help accelerate this.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Several key ideas come up. One, expand tax incentives for businesses,
especially smaller ones that create and run registered apprenticeships, make
it really attractive for them to train people.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
Okay, makes sense.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Two more direct reliable funding for trade schools to keep
tuition low or even free remove that cost barrier. And
three actively fund programs aimed at boosting diversity in the
trades mentorships outreach specifically targeting women and minorities to tackle
those bias issues we discussed.
Speaker 1 (26:53):
And what about tackling the image problem directly? Any destigmatization
campaigns making a difference.
Speaker 2 (26:58):
Yeah, there are efforts like the Build Your Future campaign
from the National Center for Construction Education and research. They
use modern marketing social media success stories like the ones
that we profiled to actively rebrand the.
Speaker 1 (27:09):
Trades, showcasing the skill to tech the earning.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Potential, exactly countering that old, outdated image of just being dirty,
low skill work, showing it as a professional, high tech,
high earning career path.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
And finally, you mentioned partnerships. Public private partnerships. How critical
are those?
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Hugely critical? Maybe the most effective model. When you get
trade unions, big construction companies, manufacturers, and community colleges working together,
that's powerful.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
Why what makes that model.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Work so well because it ensures the training is exactly
what employers need right now. They often provide paid training
like the apprenticeships and then hire the graduates directly. It
creates a seamless pipeline from learning to earning. These partnerships
are key to scaling up training quickly and making sure
people like Emma and Carlos have clear pathways to success.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
Okay, so we started this whole deep dive talking out
AI basically gutting white collar jobs, but it sounds like
the picture is more complex. AI isn't just destroying jobs,
it's changing them everywhere, even in the trades.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
That's a really important nuance to end on. AI isn't
solely a force of destruction. It's transformative, and yes, it's
actually creating new kinds of blue collar roles, often highly
skilled ones.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
How so give me an example.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Well, think about all the AI driven technologies being adopted
in blue collar fields. Sophisticated robotics on assembly lines, automated
systems and construction advanced three D printing. These things don't
run themselves entirely.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
They need people to manage them exactly.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
They need skilled humans to operate them, calibrate them, perform maintenance,
troubleshoot when things go wrong. The HVAC technician today might
be dealing with complex smart home climate systems that are
all interconnected and run by algorithms.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
So the future blue collar worker needs to be tech savvy,
too comfortable with a wrench and a laptop.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
That's increasingly the case. The demand is growing for workers
who have that high ybrid skill set, both the traditional
trade skills and technical know how. Deloitte had a projection
for twenty twenty four, looking out to twenty thirty.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
What did is say?
Speaker 2 (29:09):
It predicted that demand for roles like robotics technicians CNC
machinists who work with computer controlled machines, industrial maintenance mechanics
who fix complex automated equipment. Demand for those kinds of
jobs will grow by about fifteen percent by twenty.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
Thirty fifteen percent growth. These are well paid, skilled jobs
created by technology integrating into the trades.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Precisely, these are the secure, high wage jobs emerging at
the intersection of hands on skill and advanced tech.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
But let's add that final caveat. We need to be
honest with the listener. This doesn't mean all blue collar
work is safe forever.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Right, Absolutely not. That's the critical balance. The trades aren't
a magic shield against all automation tasks that are highly repetitive, predictable,
and happen in controlled environments. Those are still vulnerable, like
what I think certain kinds of assembly line work, basic
warehouse tasks like standardized packages, some routine manufacturing processes. Advanced
(30:04):
robotics will continue to take over those jobs.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
So the key, whether you're aiming for an office or
the trades, is focusing on skills AI can't easily replicate.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
That's the bottom line. The most valuable skills moving forward
in any sector are those that complement AI and not
compete directly with it.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
And those uniquely human skills are They're the.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Things we saw in Emma, Carlos and Eva. Complex problem solving,
dealing with messy real world situations where the variables aren't predictable, adaptability,
being able to change tactics quickly based on what you
see on site, and genuine craftsmanship. That mix of dexterity,
experience based judgment, understanding materials, and maybe even the artistic
or human element that algorithms just don't grasp.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Physical expertise, combined with technical judgment and adaptability.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
That combination seems to be the key to long term
relevance and value in a world increasingly shaped by AI
hashtag tag outro.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
Okay, let's wrap this up thinking bigger picture. What are
the main cultural and economic takeaways from this deep dive.
It feels like the actual narrative of the American dream
is shifting under our feet.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
It really is. The message coming through the sources is
pretty clear. Young Americans are making a conscious, calculated pivot.
They're putting financial independence, avoiding debt, and having practical tangible
skills ahead of traditional status markers like a four year degree.
The definition of what constitutes a good or successful career
is definitely broadening.
Speaker 1 (31:29):
And economically, this isn't just good for individuals, right, This
shift has wider benefits, huge benefits.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
This blue collar renaissance strengthens really vital US industries construction, manufacturing, energy.
These are sectors critical for national priorities like rebuilding infrastructure
or transitioning to green energy. Plus, it has the potential
to actually reduce income inequality. Yeah, so by creating more
pathways to high paying, stable careers outside of the traditional
(31:56):
university to office pipeline, it challenges that old idea, that
college which was the only reliable ticket to the middle class.
Now there are clearly multiple routes.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
So the sources suggest the kids are all right. They
see the opportunity. The challenge now is for the system
to catch up.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
That seems to be the crux of it. The younger
generation gets the financial and security logic of the trades.
The big hurdles now are institutional fixing those labor shortages
by dramatically scaling up quality training and making sure everyone,
regardless the background or location, has fair access to these opportunities.
Sustaining the momentum depends on that.
Speaker 1 (32:30):
Okay, So We'll leave you, our listener, with this final
thought to chew on. We've seen the clear advantages of
financial security, debt avoidants AI resistance that the trades offer.
Right now, the question is how fast can our policies
and our education system truly adapt to this new reality,
and maybe more pointedly, how long will it take for
most high schools to accept that pushing every single student
(32:52):
towards a four year degree might actually be financially risky,
even harmful advice for many in the age of AI,
Welcome to the deep dives. For gosh generations. The whole
idea of the American dream it was really tied to college,
wasn't it.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Oh? Absolutely, the path seemed set in stone.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
Yeah, get the degree, land, the white color job. That
was it. Stability, money, prestige. It all seemed to follow
from that office job.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
It was the gold standard, unquestioned advice in schools around
the dinner table. That was the playbook for decades.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
But you know, looking at the sources we've gathered for
this deep dive, something really really fascinating is happening, almost paradoxical,
a huge shift exactly. People are calling it the Great
reversal because while those classic office jobs, the desk careers
are feeling some serious heat from.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Aik estential heat, you could say.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Right, meanwhile, hands on blue collar work is popping up.
Is this like unexpected path to stability and success, especially
for younger Americans?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
And what's really compelling looking at the sources is that
this isn't just you know, some nostalgic trend. It's driven
by hard.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Economics, pure calculus.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Yeah, pure calculus. Gen Z, younger millennials, they're making really
pragmatic choices they're looking at job security, they're looking at
avoiding crippling debt. That's what this deep dive is all about.
We're looking at the source material on how AI is
shaking up the job market and why these young workers
are often skipping college for well for a hard hat.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
So our mission today uncover the drivers. What's the economic engine,
what's the tech disruption doing to the office, and what
cultural shifts are making this blue collar renaissance happen.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Okay, but first, let's just quickly set the stage. The
old definitions white collar office degree needed often abstract work,
blue collar trades manufacturing hands on stuff.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
That need hierarchy. It's crumbling. The desk job isn't automatically
on top anymore. Economic pressure is really changing the game.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
And it starts with the tech. AI is now good enough,
mature enough to do tax that frankly used to justify
those big salaries and fancy degrees. To get why the
trade ades are booming, you first have to understand the
reckoning happening in the office.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Okay, let's really dig into this AI. We've talked about
it for years like some future threat, right, but the
sources are clear it's not future anymore. It's here.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
It's working operational, yeah, highly capable. It's already in big companies,
and it's quickly taking over tasks that used to be
well entry level human jobs.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
So what specific AI tech are we talking then? Here?
What's really driving this change in the white collar world.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Well, there are three main ones really shaking things up. First,
you've got machine learning. This stuff can analyze huge amounts
of data, make predictions things that used to take whole
teams of analysts. Second is natural language processing NLP. That's
the engine behind things like chat GPT, the large language mode.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Okay, they can.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Draft emails, write reports, summarize legal documents, even generate marketing
copy and honestly, sometimes you can't tell it wasn't a
human junior staffer.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
And Third, there's robotic process automation or RPA, think automating
repetitive back office stuff, processing invoices, basic accounting tasks, managing
simple customer queries, stuff like that.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
So it's not just one thing, it's this combination hitting
from different angles exactly.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
It's the convergence. And that's what makes whole job categories
start to look vulnerable. And the data on vulnerability it's
pretty sobering. This isn't a twenty fifty problem.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
Okay, give us the numbers. How bad is it?
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Well? A McKinsey report from twenty twenty three laid it
out pretty starkly. It estimated that up to thirty percent
thirty percent of current white collar job tasks could potentially
be automated by twenty thirty.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
By twenty thirty, that's that's really soon.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
It's basically around the corner. Almost a third of the
work done in offices today potentially replaceable within what six years?
This isn't just an academic discussion. It's a direct threat
to millions, especially people doing info based or clerical work.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
So if thirty percent of tasks are at risk, which
specific roles are feeling the pressure most acutely right now?
Speaker 2 (03:56):
The ones that rely heavily on processing information and creating
somewhat standardized outputs. So think accounting and bookkeeping. URPA machine
learning are really good at that. Okay, Legal research, specialized
AI can tear through case law way faster than paralegals
or junior associates. Marketing content generation llms can churn out
(04:17):
ad copy blog posts much faster and cheaper, and then
there's a huge chunk of administrative support rules, scheduling, basic comms,
data entry, A lot of that is getting automated.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
And this hits right at the foundation of the traditional
middle class, right, which brings us to this idea, the
debt trap.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Yeah, it's a cruel twist, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
You spend four or five years wrack up tens of
thousands in debt for a job that's suddenly looking a
whole lot less secure than when you start in college.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
The sources really hammer this point. Young people were sold
this idea college degree equals financial safety, so they took
on debt, sometimes forty thousand dollars, sixty thousand dollars, even
more huge amounts, assuming a stable, well paying white collar
job was waiting. But now they hit the mark, and
that stability it's shaky. The return on investment, the ROI
(05:04):
on that expensive degree, it's seriously undermined by automation risk
and those loan payments.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
And what's really startling is how fast this is happening.
We kind of always assumed automation would hit manufacturing first,
the factory floor, but there was an Economic Policy Institute
study in twenty twenty four that flipped that idea.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
That finding is so important because it goes against the
historical narrative. The EPI study found job displacement from automation
is actually growing faster in white collar.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Sectors, faster than blue collar, faster.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Than blue collar, the office jobs, the desk jobs. It's
happening quickly, and it's catching a lot of people and
institutions flat footed. The tech, it seems, got better at
handling cognitive repetitive tasks quicker than it got it replicating
complex physical skills and you know, real world judgment.
Speaker 1 (05:52):
Can you give us some concrete examples, like what does
an entry level job look like when AI or say,
gig workers start taking chunks of it?
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Sure, think about an entry level journalist or maybe a
communications assistant. They used to spend hours doing research, writing
routine press releases, basic articles. Now an LM can scan
a company's quarterly report and spit out six different press
release drafts in like seconds.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
Or graphic design junior designers doing simple stuff social media banners,
formatting slides, they're finding AI tools like mid Journey or
Dally can do that almost instantly.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Even software development that always felt like the ultimate.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Safe bet, even there AI code assistants are getting really
good at basic coding, finding bugs, doing routine quality checks.
Now it doesn't mean the senior software architect is out
of a job, not yet, not yet, but it means
that entry level team that used to hire, say twenty
new grads might only need five now because the AI
(06:50):
is handling the work the other fifteen used to do.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
So it crowds the entry point massively.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
It makes it incredibly competitive and fragile for new grads
who are already grounding in debt. They've got the ex degree,
but the security they paid for it's just it's evaporating.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
Right, and all that pressure on the office world, that's
the big push factor driving young workers towards the trades.
They're essentially running towards stability.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
And the numbers back this up. Oh yeah, the DATO
confirms it. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS, they
reported solid growth and construction and skilled trades up eight
percent just between twenty twenty and twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Thirty eight percent in three years. That's significant growth, it is, And.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
As you mentioned, the key detail in the sources is
the demographic. We're seeing a noticeable jump in workers aged
eighteen to twenty nine entering these fields.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
So it's not just overall growth, it's the next generation
making a conscious.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Choice, exactly, a deliberate pivot. So let's dive into the
four big drivers the sources identify for this resurgence. Driver
number one may be the most important for long term thinking.
Job security, Okay, driver one, job security and AI resistance.
It boils down to the nature of the work itself.
It requires what the sources call unautomatable hue Men capital
(08:01):
maybe meaning blue collar work demands things AI just isn't
good at yet and might not be for a long time,
like a physical presence, problem solving that isn't linear, that
has to adapt on the fly, and a level of
physical skill, dexterity and interaction with the messy real world.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
Yeah, it's that difference between optimizing something on a screen
and actually doing it in the physical world. AI is
good at the.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
First part, perfect way to put it. AI can design
an incredibly complex energy efficient building plan, fantastic, but it
cannot physically install the plumbing, run the wires, or put
in the HVAC system.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Can't crawl under an old house to see if the
foundation's okay, after a.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Flood exactly That kind of work needs variable, dynamic physical interaction.
Think about an HVAC tech dealing with a busted furnace
in some old building. They have to assess the physical space,
notice maybe some weird corrosion on a part, factor in
the temperature with the customer needs all in real time.
It's judgment, not just kind.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
It's the complexity that comes from the physical world being yeah.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Messy, precisely. And there is a study from the National
Bureau of Economic Research back in twenty twenty three that
confirmed this. It found trades needing high levels of dexterity, adaptability,
and especially that on site judgment, spotting something unexpected, figuring
out a fix right then and there. Those are among
the least likely jobs to be automated anytime soon.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
So these jobs are anchored in the physical that gives
them a security layer. Office jobs are losing, right.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
You can't replace a skilled welder an electrician with a chatbot.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
It just doesn't work.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
Okay, so job security is huge, But let's get real.
It has to be about the money too, right. If
young people are making this switch, the economics have to
make sense.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
Oh. Absolutely. Driver two is all about economic incentives and
debt avoidance. It's the ultimate pragmatic calculation, prestige versus financial reality.
And the reality is the reality is blue collar careers
are now offering really competitive wages, good benefits, packages to healthcare,
often solid retirement plans. But here's the kicker. They offer
(10:00):
this without needing a four year degree and all the
debt that.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
Comes with it.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
Okay, give us some numbers.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
What's the pay like, Let's look at the BLS median
annual wages for twenty twenty four. These really tell the story.
Electricians median sixty one five hundred ninety dollars, plumbers median
sixty thousand, ninety dollars.
Speaker 1 (10:19):
Sixty thousand dollars plus median. Now compare that to those
entry level office jobs we talk about the ones vulnerable
to AI.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
The contrast is stark. A new grad with say a
communications degree, might start around fifty five thousand dollars, maybe
sixty five thousand dollars if they're lucky, but they're also
carrying what forty k sixty dollars in student debt right that.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Eats up a huge chunk of their take home pay.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Immediately exactly Whereas the trades person starting around sixty thousand dollars,
They often have zero debt. In fact, they were probably
paid during their apprenticeship. Their actual cash flow, their ability
to save and build wealth, it jumps way ahead of
their college educated peers right from the start.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
That earn while you learn model. That's the game change
of financial.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
It really is. The apprenticeship model flips the script. You
get an income right away, you get training, you get
a clear path to certification, and you do it without
racking up potentially life altering debt.
Speaker 1 (11:11):
Is there data on how much debt avoidance factors into
the decision? Yes.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
The National Association of Homebuilders did a survey in twenty
twenty four. Get this, sixty five percent, nearly two thirds
of young people in the trades said no student debt
was a primary reason they chose that career path.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
Sixty five percent.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Wow, that single statistic is almost an indictment of the
traditional college for all model, isn't it. They're actively choosing
immediate financial stability and freedom over the old markers of
academic achievement. It's pure pragmatism.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Okay, that makes total sense financially, which leads perfectly into
Driver three. The cultural shift because for the longest time,
let's be honest, there was a stigma around the trades.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
Oh, a huge stigma, deeply entrenched the idea that if
you were smart, you went to college, you didn't get
your hands dirty.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Right. That's definitely changing, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
It's fading fast. The stigma was propped up by institutions
for decades, but now that the economic winds have shifted
so dramatically, the perception is catching up. And social media
is playing a massive role here. Oh so platforms like
x TikTok they're full of videos showcasing successful trades people.
It's not just about the money they make, although that's
part of it. It's showing their lifestyle, their autonomy, the
(12:23):
businesses they.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
Build, like the electrician with their own truck, setting their
own hours.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
Yeah, that kind of.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Thing exactly that It presents the trades as a path
to real independence. And you can trast that with what
you often hear from the white collar.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
World layoffs, burnout, pointless meetings, right.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Constant talk about corporate restructuring, fighting over remote work policies, zoom, fatigue, burnout.
It's a different vibe entirely blue collar work offers something tangible.
You build something, you fix something. There's a sense of accomplishment.
At the end of the day.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
You can actually point to it and say, I did
that drive past the building, flip the switch.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
That tangible result is incredibly appealing, especially to younger generations
who seem disillusioned with abstract corporate goals and endless emails.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
It feeds that need for purpose, maybe authenticity. Seeing the
direct result of your effort.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
I think that's a huge part of it. It's skilled work,
it pays well, and it results in something real and lasting.
That's a powerful combination in today's world.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
Okay, and finally, driver four, this feels like the anchor
that makes the whole shift sustainable. The massive labor shortage
in skilled trades.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
Yes, this is the structural foundation. We're facing a huge
shortage of skilled trades people across the board. Why well,
a couple of big reasons.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Decades of pushing college prep over vocational training.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
That's a huge one. We systemically underinvested in vocational education
for decades. Everyone was pushed towards a four year degree.
At the same time, the existing workforce, the experienced electricians, plumbers,
welders like they're aging out, they're retiring.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
And taking decades of knowledge with them exactly.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
So you've got this shrinking supply of skilled labor right
when demand is booming because of things like you know,
aging infrastructure and needing replacement, new construction, the green energy transition.
Speaker 1 (14:12):
So supply is down, demand is way up.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Basic economics creates an intense mismatch, and this shortage is
what guarantees the job security and drives up the wages
we were just talking about. The numbers are stark. The
Associated General Contractors of America reported in twenty twenty four
that eighty nine percent, almost nine out of ten construction
firms were struggling to fill open skilled labor jobs.
Speaker 1 (14:33):
Eighty nine percent couldn't find the people they needed.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Think about the power that gives the worker. If you
have those skills, companies are desperate for you. You can
command higher pay, better benefits, you have more choice about
where you work. Your skill set is in high demand,
and it's largely resistant to AI. That's about as secure
as it gets in today's economy.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
So this isn't just a temporary blip. It's a fundamental
market correction.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
That's what the sources suggest. A necessary economic correction fueled
by technology, demographics, and changing priorities. Yeah, the data tells
the story, but looking at individual experiences really brings these
drivers home. These profiles are like snapshots of this great reversal.
Let's start with Emma. She's twenty four, a plumber's apprentice
in Ohio.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Okay. Emma's story sounds like it connects a few dots.
She actually has a bachelor's degree right in communications.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
She does the classic path four years, took on debt
for a degree in a field communications that is actually
quite vulnerable to AI content generation, as we discussed, and
she had the job market and hit a wall saturated market,
lots of competition for entry level jobs. It didn't pay
great and didn't offer much of a clear path forward.
But the real blaking point for her, according to the
(15:44):
source material, was the student loan.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Payments, the debt trap we talked about exactly.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
She realized the minimum monthly payment was eating up a
huge chunk of her budget. Even if she did land
one of those mediocre office jobs, it just wasn't adding up.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
So what made her look at plumbing?
Speaker 2 (15:58):
She was drawn by the structure, the clarity she found
out about a local union apprenticeship and get this, it
paid her eighteen dollars an hour right from day one
of training.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
Eighteen dollars an hour to learn versus paying tuition right.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Immediate income, no more debt accumulation, and a clear roadmap
to becoming a licensed plumber. It was for her a
much more secure and logical path, and within two years
she was up to twenty eight dollars an hour. She
expects to be fully licensed by twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
What did she say about the switch?
Speaker 2 (16:29):
Her personal take, It really sums up the reversal. Her
quote was something like, I realized I could earn more
as a plumber than in any of the office jobs
I interviewed for, and more importantly, I love working with
my hands and solving real problems.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Wow. Trading the abstract degree for concrete skills and better.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
Pay and crucially debt freedom. Okay, Next up Carlos twenty seven.
He's an electrician down in Texas. His story is a
bit different.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
Oh, so, did he skip college altogether?
Speaker 2 (16:59):
He did, completely bypassed the university track, went straight into
an electrical training program right after high school. He saw
the demand, especially in the energy sector in Texas.
Speaker 1 (17:08):
Smart move. And he didn't just get a job, he
started his own business.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
Yeah, that's the key part of his story. He exemplifies
that entrepreneurial potential within the trades. He didn't just become
an employee. He now runs his own small business doing
what specifically he specialized. He focuses on high demand work
installing complex renewable energy systems, thinks solar panels for homes
and businesses, smart grid integrations. It's specialized technical work and
(17:33):
because it's in high demand, he can command good rates.
Speaker 1 (17:36):
So the trades aren't just about manual labor. They can
be a path to tech specialization and business ownership.
Speaker 2 (17:42):
Absolutely, and his mindset about security really nails that AI
resistance point Driver one, What did he say? His quote
was pretty direct. AI might take over desk jobs, but
it can't climb a pole to fix a power line
or wire a complex solar inverter can't.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
Argue with that the physical reaction of the job.
Speaker 2 (18:00):
It's high stakes, physical work, requiring on the spot judgment
with complex systems. That's his security blanket against automation.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
Okay, one more profile. Ava. She's twenty one, a welder
in Michigan. Her story highlights the cultural shift exactly.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Ava's path shows how the perception is changing, partly thanks
to social media, which we talked about. She wasn't pushed
into welding by a school counselor. She actually got interested
after seeing videos.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
Online, viral videos of welding.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
Yeah. Video is showing the skill, the precision, sometimes the
artistic side of it, and also highlighting the good money
and independence trades people can have. She saw it portrayed
as like a cool, legitimate.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Career, so the online portrayal destigmatized it for.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
Her, seems like it and then she found a quick
path to getting skilled up.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
How quick she did an intensive.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Six month Welton certification program, a great example of how
focused vocational training can lead directly to a good job.
Now she's working in automotive manufacturing, making twenty five dollars
an hour, pretty good for twenty one.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Inner motivation why welding over an office.
Speaker 2 (19:03):
Or quote really captures that generational value shift. I didn't
want to sit in an office all day feeling like
I wasn't accomplishing anything. Welding feels like art, and at
the end of the day, I can see exactly what
I created.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
That desire for tangible results.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Again, yeah, autonomy, tangible skills, a sense of purpose, maybe
even craftsmanship. That seems to be the common thread in
these profiles. They all made a conscious choice for stability,
good income, and escaping debt over the traditional, maybe more prestigious,
but increasingly uncertain, white collar path. They're like the leading
edge of this whole shift.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
Okay, so the case for the trades resurgence is really
strong based on security, economics, culture, demand. But we need
to be balanced here you said earlier, it's not a panacea.
There are downsides, real challenges.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Absolutely, it's crucial to look at the trade offs. Young
workers are essentially swapping the risk of financial debt and
AI displacement for a different set of risks.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
Let's start with the most obvious one, the physical demand
and safety risks. These jobs are tough on the body.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
No question. They are physically demanding. You're often working outdoors
in extreme weather, intense heat, freezing cold. It involves lifting, bending, climbing,
repetitive motions, and exposure to hazards, dust, chemicals, heights, heavy machinery.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Which leads to higher injury rates.
Speaker 2 (20:20):
Definitely the risk of chronic pain, things like back problems
or joint issues is higher, burnout can be physical, not
just mental, and the risk of acute injury is real.
The source's point to BLS data Again. In twenty twenty three,
construction workers had an injury rate of about ten point
two per one hundred full time workers ten percent.
Speaker 1 (20:39):
That's significantly higher than an office job. So the trade
off is clear less financial stress, potentially more physical stress
and risk.
Speaker 2 (20:46):
That's the trade. The profile suggests they understand this, but
the security and the pay make it worthwhile, especially if
safety standards are high. But the long term physical wear
and tear, that's a genuine factor to consider. It requires
a different kind of physical resilience and risk management.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
Okay, what about getting ahead in an office there's often
a clear ladder junior senior manager. How does career progression
work in the trades? Are there hurdles there?
Speaker 2 (21:14):
It works differently. The path isn't always as standardized. Yes,
entrue wages are good, but moving up significantly often depends
on specific things like wide. Accumulating specialized certifications is key,
getting your master plumber license or specific welding qualifications or
advanced electrical certifications. Experience counts for a lot building a
reputation for reliability and skill. But the really big jumps
(21:37):
in income and autonomy that often comes from starting your
own business like Carlos did right and running.
Speaker 1 (21:42):
A business as a whole different ballgame. You need skills
beyond just being a good plumber or electrician.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Totally different. Suddenly you're dealing with marketing, bidding on jobs,
managing payroll, insurance, inventory, customer relations. It's a huge leap
from being a skilled technician to being an entrepreneur and manager.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
A leap not everyone wants to make or.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
Is cut out for exactly.
Speaker 2 (22:04):
So while the potential earning ceiling can be very high, reaching,
it involves taking on different kinds of risks and needing
different abilities compared to just climbing the corporate ladder.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Another potential hurdle you mentioned just getting the training in
the first place. The access problem.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
This is a major bottleneck. Demand for workers is skide high,
but the supply of good training programs hasn't kept up everywhere.
That twenty twenty four National Skills Coalition Report found something
pretty shocking forty percent of counties in the US lacks
sufficient vocational training.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
Program forty percent. That's huge, especially when we need these
workers so badly.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
It is huge. It means opportunities are limited, particularly if
you live in the rural area or somewhere far from
a major technical college. You might want the career, see
the benefits, but just can't easily access the training. It
creates an equity issue too. The benefits of this renaissance
aren't spread evenly geographically.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
Okay, final challenge societal bias. We said the stigma is fading,
but it's gone completely.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Not entirely. While things are definitely better, biases still exist.
These trades have traditionally been very male dominated, right, so
women and people from minority groups entering these fields can
still face barriers, sometimes subtle, sometimes not so subtle, things
like lack of mentorship, exclusionary workplace cultures. It can still
be tougher for some groups to break in and succeed.
Speaker 1 (23:26):
So even with the economic logic shifting, some old attitudes
lag behind.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
They do. It takes ongoing conscious effort, better recruitment, strong
mentorship programs, promoting inclusive environments to make sure these high
opportunity fields are truly open and welcoming to everyone. And
that leads us to what needs to happen institutionally. If
this trade renaissance is going to last, and if it's
going to be equitable, we need the system education policy
(23:53):
to catch up and support it. It can't just be
on individuals to figure it.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Out, right, So where does that start? Funding the places
where people learn these skills, community colleges, trade schools.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
That's fundamental. Investment in training is critical. These places need
more funding. They need it to expand their programs because
demanded booming. They need it to buy up to date equipment,
modern welding gear, robotics trainers, sophisticated diagnostic tools, stuff that
matches what's actually used on the job site today.
Speaker 1 (24:20):
And good instructors too, presumably.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Yes, instructors who know the current industry practices. The training
has to be high quality and relevant to the complex
work people like Carlos and Eva are doing. Now.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
Is the government stepping up? Is there federal money flowing
towards this?
Speaker 2 (24:34):
There's some movement the Big Infrastructure build from the Biden
administration in twenty twenty three, it did allocate about one
point two billion dollars specifically for workforce development that includes
apprenticeships and related training.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
So Washington is acknowledging the connection between building stuff and
having people who can build stuff exactly.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
It's a start, but industry groups and advocates, they argue
it's nowhere near.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Enough drop in the bucket compared to decades of neglect.
Speaker 2 (25:02):
That's the critique. They say. The funding needs to be
much larger, more sustained, and it needs to get to
the local level faster without getting stuck in bureaucracy, especially
in areas where the shortages are worse.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
Okay, what about earlier in the pipeline high schools you mentioned,
shop classes got cut back hard in the eighties and nineties.
Speaker 3 (25:19):
Is that reversing thankfully?
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Yes, we're seeing the return of vocational skills, often under
the banner of career technical education or CTE. And this
isn't your grandpa's.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Woodshop, right, It's more high tech now.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
Much more modern. CTE programs involve things like robotics, advanced
manufacturing techniques, computer aided design CAD, training on complex electrical systems.
It's sophisticated stuff designed to lead directly to skilled careers.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
And are more students actually enrolling in these programs?
Speaker 2 (25:49):
Yes, the numbers show a shift. The National Center for
Education Statistics reported a twelve percent increase in CTE enrollment
just between twenty nineteen and twenty twenty three twelve percent.
Speaker 1 (25:59):
That it's a solid trend.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
It is. It shows that students, parents, and maybe even
schools are starting to recognize these pathways as valuable first
choice options, not just Plan B. The momentum is building,
but again, resources are needed to make sure all schools
can offer quality.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
CTE beyond just throwing money at it. What specific policy
solutions do the sources suggest would really help accelerate this.
Speaker 2 (26:22):
Several key ideas come up. One, expand tax incentives for businesses,
especially smaller ones that create and run registered apprenticeships, make
it really attractive for them to train people.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
Okay, makes sense.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Two more direct reliable funding for trade schools to keep
tuition low or even free remove that cost barrier. And
three actively fund programs aimed at boosting diversity in the
trades mentorships outreach specifically targeting women and minorities to tackle
those bias issues we discussed.
Speaker 1 (26:53):
And what about tackling the image problem directly? Any destigmatization
campaigns making a difference.
Speaker 2 (26:58):
Yeah, there are efforts like the Build Your Future campaign
from the National Center for Construction Education and research. They
use modern marketing social media success stories like the ones
that we profiled to actively rebrand the.
Speaker 1 (27:09):
Trades, showcasing the skill to tech the earning.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Potential, exactly countering that old, outdated image of just being dirty,
low skill work, showing it as a professional, high tech,
high earning career path.
Speaker 1 (27:22):
And finally, you mentioned partnerships. Public private partnerships. How critical
are those?
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Hugely critical? Maybe the most effective model. When you get
trade unions, big construction companies, manufacturers, and community colleges working together,
that's powerful.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
Why what makes that model.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Work so well because it ensures the training is exactly
what employers need right now. They often provide paid training
like the apprenticeships and then hire the graduates directly. It
creates a seamless pipeline from learning to earning. These partnerships
are key to scaling up training quickly and making sure
people like Emma and Carlos have clear pathways to success.
Speaker 1 (27:57):
Okay, so we started this whole deep dive talking out
AI basically gutting white collar jobs, but it sounds like
the picture is more complex. AI isn't just destroying jobs,
it's changing them everywhere, even in the trades.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
That's a really important nuance to end on. AI isn't
solely a force of destruction. It's transformative, and yes, it's
actually creating new kinds of blue collar roles, often highly
skilled ones.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
How so give me an example.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Well, think about all the AI driven technologies being adopted
in blue collar fields. Sophisticated robotics on assembly lines, automated
systems and construction advanced three D printing. These things don't
run themselves entirely.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
They need people to manage them exactly.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
They need skilled humans to operate them, calibrate them, perform maintenance,
troubleshoot when things go wrong. The HVAC technician today might
be dealing with complex smart home climate systems that are
all interconnected and run by algorithms.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
So the future blue collar worker needs to be tech savvy,
too comfortable with a wrench and a laptop.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
That's increasingly the case. The demand is growing for workers
who have that high ybrid skill set, both the traditional
trade skills and technical know how. Deloitte had a projection
for twenty twenty four, looking out to twenty thirty.
Speaker 1 (29:08):
What did is say?
Speaker 2 (29:09):
It predicted that demand for roles like robotics technicians CNC
machinists who work with computer controlled machines, industrial maintenance mechanics
who fix complex automated equipment. Demand for those kinds of
jobs will grow by about fifteen percent by twenty.
Speaker 1 (29:22):
Thirty fifteen percent growth. These are well paid, skilled jobs
created by technology integrating into the trades.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Precisely, these are the secure, high wage jobs emerging at
the intersection of hands on skill and advanced tech.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
But let's add that final caveat. We need to be
honest with the listener. This doesn't mean all blue collar
work is safe forever.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
Right, Absolutely not. That's the critical balance. The trades aren't
a magic shield against all automation tasks that are highly repetitive, predictable,
and happen in controlled environments. Those are still vulnerable, like
what I think certain kinds of assembly line work, basic
warehouse tasks like standardized packages, some routine manufacturing processes. Advanced
(30:04):
robotics will continue to take over those jobs.
Speaker 1 (30:06):
So the key, whether you're aiming for an office or
the trades, is focusing on skills AI can't easily replicate.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
That's the bottom line. The most valuable skills moving forward
in any sector are those that complement AI and not
compete directly with it.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
And those uniquely human skills are They're the.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Things we saw in Emma, Carlos and Eva. Complex problem solving,
dealing with messy real world situations where the variables aren't predictable, adaptability,
being able to change tactics quickly based on what you
see on site, and genuine craftsmanship. That mix of dexterity,
experience based judgment, understanding materials, and maybe even the artistic
or human element that algorithms just don't grasp.
Speaker 1 (30:45):
Physical expertise, combined with technical judgment and adaptability.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
That combination seems to be the key to long term
relevance and value in a world increasingly shaped by AI
hashtag tag outro.
Speaker 1 (30:58):
Okay, let's wrap this up thinking bigger picture. What are
the main cultural and economic takeaways from this deep dive.
It feels like the actual narrative of the American dream
is shifting under our feet.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
It really is. The message coming through the sources is
pretty clear. Young Americans are making a conscious, calculated pivot.
They're putting financial independence, avoiding debt, and having practical tangible
skills ahead of traditional status markers like a four year degree.
The definition of what constitutes a good or successful career
is definitely broadening.
Speaker 1 (31:29):
And economically, this isn't just good for individuals, right, This
shift has wider benefits, huge benefits.
Speaker 2 (31:35):
This blue collar renaissance strengthens really vital US industries construction, manufacturing, energy.
These are sectors critical for national priorities like rebuilding infrastructure
or transitioning to green energy. Plus, it has the potential
to actually reduce income inequality. Yeah, so by creating more
pathways to high paying, stable careers outside of the traditional
(31:56):
university to office pipeline, it challenges that old idea, that
college which was the only reliable ticket to the middle class.
Now there are clearly multiple routes.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
So the sources suggest the kids are all right. They
see the opportunity. The challenge now is for the system
to catch up.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
That seems to be the crux of it. The younger
generation gets the financial and security logic of the trades.
The big hurdles now are institutional fixing those labor shortages
by dramatically scaling up quality training and making sure everyone,
regardless the background or location, has fair access to these opportunities.
Sustaining the momentum depends on that.
Speaker 1 (32:30):
Okay, So We'll leave you, our listener, with this final
thought to chew on. We've seen the clear advantages of
financial security, debt avoidants AI resistance that the trades offer.
Right now, the question is how fast can our policies
and our education system truly adapt to this new reality,
and maybe more pointedly, how long will it take for
most high schools to accept that pushing every single student
(32:52):
towards a four year degree might actually be financially risky,
even harmful advice for many in the age of AI,
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