End of the Sunbelt Boom? Climate, Cities and the Next Population Shift

Economic and social science research suggests climate risks are beginning to inform where people choose to live, raise families, and invest, foreshadowing the decline of a near 75-year trend of domestic migration to the Southern U.S. This is the focus of urban planner and trusted climate adaptation scholar Jesse M. Keenan’s new book, North: The Future of Post-Climate America.  

As the costs of environmental risks to homes, communities and livelihoods become insupportable in the most vulnerable areas of the country, many who are able will gravitate to regions where life can be relatively stable and secure.  North is a comprehensive assessment of trendlines and evidence that suggest how this migration will occur—and how leaders can ensure equity and continuity as American populations shift.  

Drawing on his extensive background in climate adaptation research, Keenan offers strategies for locations that will be sending people and those that will receive them. He concludes North with a fictional description of what America could look like near the end of this century, when many climate impacts are expected to mature.   

In this episode, Ten Across founder Duke Reiter and author Jesse Keenan discuss implications for the Ten Across geography, which is among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the country.  

Relevant Articles and Resources  

North: The Future of Post-Climate America  

“Zillow deletes climate risk data from listings after complaints it harms sales” (The Guardian, December 2025)  

“America’s Home Insurance Affordability Crunch: See What’s Happening Near You.” (The New York Times, November 2025)  

“As millions face climate relocation, the nation’s first attempt sparks warnings and regret” (Floodlight, September 2025)  

“Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era?” (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, July 2024)  

“Climate-proof Duluth? Why the city is attracting ‘climate migrants’” (MPR News, October 2021)

“Want to Escape Global Warming? These Cities Promise Cool Relief” (The New York Times, April 2019)  

“The Rise of the Sunbelt” (Edward L. Glaeser and Kristina Tobio, May 2007)  

Relevant Ten Across Conversations Podcasts  

How the 10X Region Can Plan for Climate Migration with Abrahm Lustgarten  

Credits
Host: Duke Reiter
Producer and editor: Taylor Griffith
Music by: Pearce Roswell, Out To The World, Johan Glössner
Research and support provided by: Kate Carefoot, Rae Ulrich, and Sabine Butler  

About our guest
Jesse M. Keenan is the Favrot II Associate Professor of Sustainable Real Estate and Urban Planning and Director of the Center on Climate Change and Urbanism at the School of Architecture and Built Environment at Tulane University. His research spans design, engineering, finance, and policy, with service to U.S. government agencies, international organizations, and major corporations. Widely published and cited, Jesse’s work has shaped climate policy, financial regulation, and concepts like climate gentrification. He is the author of .css-j9qmi7{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;font-weight:700;margin-bottom:1rem;margin-top:2.8rem;width:100%;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:start;justify-content:start;padding-left:5rem;}@media only screen and (max-width: 599px){.css-j9qmi7{padding-left:0;-webkit-box-pack:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;justify-content:center;}}.css-j9qmi7 svg{fill:#27292D;}.css-j9qmi7 .eagfbvw0{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;color:#27292D;}