Latest Deadpool Projections Inject New Urgency into Colorado River Negotiations

Negotiators representing seven states, 30 tribes, and Mexico are running out of time to agree on new rules to guide sharing of Colorado River water before a federally mandated deadline next fall. Failure to do so would forfeit water allocation authority to the Bureau of Reclamation, and costly state and tribal litigation would be argued before the U.S. Supreme Court.  

Potable water supply for much of the West is not all that’s at stake in managing demands on the river’s supply. “Deadpool” levels in the reservoirs at Lake Powell and Lake Mead would result in inability of the Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams to generate hydropower. The establishment of new post-2026 operating guidelines among the river’s competing stakeholders is a complex undertaking, consuming much of the region’s attention and effort.  

However, an analysis published last week by six leading scholars in the basin warns that immediate, substantial action to conserve water is needed. Their study suggests that if the coming year’s patterns of water supply and use mirror past years, then by the time any hard-won new guidelines are in place, the basin may already be in serious trouble.  

In this episode, study author Kathryn Sorensen and water policy expert Sarah Porter provide perspectives on the near-term science, human behavior, and potential solutions relating to conditions around the Colorado River.  

Relevant articles and resources  

“Analysis of Colorado River Basin Storage Suggests Need for Immediate Action” (Jack Schmidt, Anne Castle, John Fleck, Eric Kuhn, Kathryn Sorensen, Kathrine Tara, September 2025)

“As the Colorado River slowly dries up, states angle for influence over future water rights” (The Conversation, August 2025)  

“Inside the ‘revolutionary’ new Colorado River proposal” (E&E News by Politico, July 2025)

Colorado River Shortage: What This Means for Arizona & What Comes Next (Arizona Water Blueprint)  

“The Colorado River needs some ‘shared pain’ to break a deadlock, water experts say” (KUNC, May 2025)  

“Floating Pools & Grand Bargains” (Kyl Center for Water Policy at Morrison Institute, April 2025)  

Relevant Ten Across Conversations podcasts  

Checking in on Tense Colorado River Negotiations with Anne Castle and John Fleck  

Understanding Groundwater Risks in the Southwest with Jay Famiglietti  

Experts Share Insights on the Ongoing Colorado River Negotiations  

Why Everyone Should Care About the Colorado River with Rhett Larson  

Getting Honest About the Colorado River Crisis with Anne Castle & John Fleck  

The Future of Water is Here: Are We Ready?  

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