May 17, 2023 • 22 mins
Tyler Loechner of FTNFantasy.com runs through his initial set of QB tiers for the 2023 Underdog Fantasy best ball season. Who know the elite tier - Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts - but where do Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence land? What about Daniel Jones and Jared Goff?
Also check out Tyler's piece on the QBs most likely to finish as the No. 1 overall QB in 2023.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:04):
What's up? People? Welcome toepisode eleven of the FTN Bestball Cast,
presented by the FTN Podcast Network.As always, I'm your host, Tyler
Lochner find me on Twitter at LochnerNFL, and I am hyped about today's
topic. Bestball season I think isofficially here. I know we've been doing
(00:26):
this podcast for a while, butwith the Puppy live on Underdog with Best
Ball Millionaire Maker Live on Underdog,the time is here. Where in the
second half of May. The draftis in the books. Guys, it's
time to do our first set ofquarterback rankings, and we're gonna do it
in tiers. We're gonna go QBtears because honestly, you can nitpick about
(00:47):
the rankings. Oh, this guy'sninth or he should be tenth. The
bottom line is everyone knows tears arereally where it's at. If you get
a quarterback within a tier, you'repretty happy. So that's it pretty simple
topic. We're gonna do tears forall the different positions. We're going to
revisit this topic again in the future, but we're starting with quarterbacks here.
I'm recording on May seventeenth, beingreleased on the same day it's early in
(01:10):
the morning. Let's get to it. Tier number one. You know who's
in this tier. It is theelite, the big dogs, the guys
you want on your team, butyou're gonna have to send spend a second
round pick on at least on underdog. This is the elite. This is
Josh Allen, this is Patrick Mahomes, and yes, this is Jalen Hurts.
I mean, pick who you wantout of this group. Pick who
(01:34):
you want to stack with. Outof this group. You're happy no matter
who you If you get any ofthese quarterbacks, you're happy with it.
The only downside is that you dohave to spend a second round pick.
Last year it was a third roundpick. Quarterbacks have increased in value,
I thought, I mean midway throughlast year, I was like, oh,
I got this, Like late roundquarterback is dead, you know,
(01:55):
early round quarterback is where it's at. I thought that I was the only
one who was really seeing the trend. By the time February drafts rolled around,
people were already on it. Socertainly people have gotten sharper in the
draft rooms. But I am tellingyou it is okay. It is correct.
You want one of these elite quarterbacks. You don't have to draft this
one of these top one of thequarterbacks in this top tier, but you
(02:15):
do want a solid quarterback. Thedifference between the upper end quarterbacks and the
lower end quarterbacks has never been biggerin terms of what they bring to the
table for you. For best Balland this group, Alan Mahomes, Hurts,
this is the group that you wantif you're going to spend a premium
pick on quarterback. Now. Onething that's really great about this group too,
(02:38):
is that it's pretty easy to stackright now with their top pass catchers.
Josh Allen's ad AP. Josh Allen'sADP lines up very neatly with where
you would have to draft Stefon Diggsin the first round, So you can
pretty easily start with Steph Diggs andthen Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes. Ditto
with Travis Kelcey. You can getKelsey and Mahomes and then Jalen Hurts.
(02:59):
It's a little bit more difficult withHurts to get the full stack with Hurts,
A J. Brown and DeVante Smith, but it's possible. I mean,
if you do just one draft,it's probably not going to happen.
But if you do a handful ofdrafts, it's it's going to happen,
and it's definitely not uncommon to getboth Hurts and one of those pass catchers
at least so so if you're goingfor the onslaught, even that's possible.
(03:20):
So love that about these players.If it was borderline impossible to stack one
of these quarterbacks, I would havea lot less interest in them, and
that second round price tag would bea little bit more difficult to swallow.
But if you draft one of thosepass catchers in the first round, honestly,
you should probably be looking at oneof these quarterbacks in the second round,
(03:40):
just to complete that elite stack.As for which one of these quarterbacks
you should take first, again,like I said, if you if you
picked one of their teammates, Ithink that becomes the tiebreaker. But right
now, it's like anybody's guess they'reADPs. Mahomes is technically going first,
but his ADP is eighteen point five, Hurts is technically going second with an
ADP of nineteen point eight, andAlan is technically going third with an ADP
(04:02):
of nineteen point nine. So Imean they're all literally going within an average
of one and a half picks ofeach other. They're going back to back
to back. I don't think itreally matters that much which order you take
them in, So Mahomes. Thefunny thing is, last year I actually
didn't have Mahomes in Tier one.I don't think many people did. I
(04:23):
thought that losing Tyreek Hill would hurthim. I mean, logically, you
would think that losing the fastest,best deep tart in the NFL would hurt
quarterback. Now Patrick Mahomes comes out, he wins MVP, he wins the
Super Bowl. He's just as goodas ever. So yeah, clearly belongs
in Tier one. I got onmy face for thinking that losing a weapon
(04:43):
would impact Patrick Malomes. I'm prettysure I could go out there and he
would still put up QB one numbers. So Hurts took a big leap forward
as a passer. Last year.He wasn't He wasn't launching Mahomes like numbers
as a passer, but he didpass for twenty two touchdowns just six interceptions.
A solid deep ball game. Obviouslygot the elite wide receivers. Dallas
Goddard's a great tight end. Theyjust added DeAndre Swift, so we might
(05:06):
see some more passing in that angle, and then of course he's the best
goal line rusher in the NFL.You know, pretty much a lock to
score double digit touchdowns. Again,He's the new Cam Newton in terms of
a quarterback rushing touchdown upside. Andthen Allen has gone three straight years with
either being the overall quarterback one orvery nearly the overall quarterback one in fantasy.
(05:30):
Stefon Diggs and Gave Davis both bothreturn. Dawson Knox is there,
and they added a second tight endin Dalton Kincaide. James Cook, the
pass catching running back, is enteringhis second year. They added Damien Harris,
which is I think just a onefor one replacement for Devin Singletary.
And then the real hype moment wouldbe if Dalvin Cook ends up getting released
and picked up by the Bills ortraded to the Bills. Everything is looking
(05:54):
like Alan will be as good asever, and I don't think you're not
going to go wrong with any ofthese quarterbacks. All right, let's get
on to the next tier. Ihad no idea what to name this tier.
The boring name is the also Elite, but you know, not Alan
Mahomes or Hurts. Really, Ithink the better name is the rushing quarterbacks
(06:15):
and Joe Burrow because this group isLamar Jackson. This group is Joe Burrow,
and this group is justin Fields.Now, if you were to ask
me, and I actually wrote thisarticle, which one of these quarterbacks has
the best chance of finishing is theoverall QB one, I would put Fields
and Jackson in their own tier,and then Burrow would kind of be in
a tier right below that. Butin terms of underdog best ball rankings,
(06:39):
underdog bastball tiers, it's Jackson,Burrow, and Fields I think together.
The reason I think Jackson and Fieldshave higher upside is very simply just because
of their rushing ability. But Burrowis, you know, much more established
as a passer much is going tobe much more consistent as a passion as
a passer. So Jackson finally finallylanded back in Baltimore. The big question
(07:01):
was whether or not he was evengoing to be there. I don't there
was never a question as to whetheror not he was going to be a
starting quarterback for some team. Butthe thing that a lot actually has changed
in Baltimore despite Lamar Jackson returning,We're going to see a very new Baltimore
offense in twenty twenty three. ToddMonkin is now the offensive coordinator, so
we're going to see more passing.And on top of that, they have
(07:21):
invested around Jackson for what feels likethe first time in his career. Mark
Andrews is still there, so anelite, big bodied tight end Rashad Bateman
returns, hopefully finally healthy. Theyspent a first round draft pick on Za
Flowers, who some people had ranked. I mean most people had JSN ranked
as the number one wide receiver,but I want to say that Zay Flowers.
(07:44):
I saw him going ahead of Jasonand at least in some lock drafts.
And then they added Odell Beckham aswell, who a little bit of
a wild card, but I'm abig believer in Beckham. So Jackson has
this great, great receiving Cassie asa new offensive coordinator. He's excited to
pass the ball more. He sayshe's going to throw the ball for over
six thousand yards. That's not goingto happen, but I do think we're
going to see more passing from Jackson, and I just I'm not discrediting Jackson
(08:09):
as a passer by any stretch.I mean, I said, Burrow is
more established as a passer, moreconsistent as a passer. But guys,
Jackson led the NFL in passing touchdownsa couple of years ago when he was
the MVP. He is a verygood passer. He now has very good
passing weapons, and he's still goingto run the ball like he could still
run for over a thousand yards.Love Jackson firmly have him ranked fourth overall
(08:31):
among quarterbacks, and honestly, Jacksonto me is almost like in a tier
of his own, in between theelite and what I'm calling the also elite
fields is in a very similar boatto Jackson. I mean, how can
you not rank him as in thesecond tier of quarterbacks. He absolutely caught
fire after a slow first month ofthe year last year. He finished as
(08:54):
a top ten fantasy quarterback every singleweek from weeks five through fifteen. Okay,
on a per game basis, hewas the overall QB three in that
span, behind only Mahomes and Hurts. I mean, he was outscoring Josh
Allen. He only threw for twentytwo hundred passing yards on the year,
and seventeen touchdowns against eleven interceptions.A lot of upside as a passer.
(09:16):
Fortunately, fortunately the Bears have investedpassing resources around him. They added DJ
Moore, Yeah, they I meanthey traded for Chase Claypool last year.
TBD how that pans out. Istill think Claypool is has at least the
athletic profile to be a dominant widereceiver. The bottom line is they have
(09:37):
bought into fields. That was thebig question last year, Like when freaking
Valis Jones was their number one widereceiver. That's not true. Darnell Mooney
always was. I'm making a littlebit of a joke, but the Bears
are buying into justin fields. I'mbuying into justin fields. Oh and he
ran for over eleven hundred yards andeight touchdowns last year, so you know
(09:58):
fields. Taking a twenty two.Jalen Hurts asked leap is not out of
the question. And then Joe Burrowhas the best wide receiver cast in the
NFL. Is he's just an elitetalent. I think your bank he's like
the new Tom Brady. Right,You're not going to get a lot of
rushing production out of him, butyou're gonna get a heck of a lot
(10:20):
of passing production. You're gonna getsome really high ceiling games, which obviously
is great in best ball. Andlike I mentioned, with the elite tier,
Burrow is very stackable. With hispass catchers, you can very reasonably
get Joe Burrow, T Higgins,Angel Mar Chase, so love Burrow firmly
belongs in this field. Okay,the next tier the young guns, justin
(10:43):
Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Now,if again I'm putting these guys in a
tier, this is a tier ofrankings. If I wrote an article about
tiers of most likely to finish asQB one overall, in this tier,
I had Herbert Lawrence was in atier below just because I think Herbert,
I think, from a consistency standpoint, has a better has a better chance
(11:05):
of finishing as the overall QB one. But in terms of rankings, I
have these two guys right next toeach other. So on a per game
basis last year this surprised me alittle bit because I did not know this.
On a per game basis last year, Trevor Lawrence was actually the QB
seven in Fantasy, but he justwasn't consistent that you know. That's why
I was saying two seconds ago thatI think Herbert is a little bit more
(11:26):
consistent. But QB seven overall ona per game basis is great. The
problem was the consistency, although inbest ball it's not that bad if you
have another quarterback, which you're goingto with Lawrence. So Lawrence had five
games where he finished within the topfive among quarterbacks in a given week,
but he also had seven games wherehe finished outside of the top fifteen.
(11:48):
So very high ceiling, very lowfloor. I do think Lawrence gets more
consistent this year. That's why Ifirmly have him in this Tier three category.
And then justin Herbert had had adown year last year. I mean,
he threw for forty seven hundred yards, which was pretty typical. That
that was good. He completed alot of his passes. He completed sixty
eight percent of his passes. Hiscareer averages sixty six percent, so you
(12:11):
know, a big leap there.The problem was the touchdowns. He throw
only twenty five touchdowns last year comparedto twenty twenty one when he threw thirty
eight, and he threw for overfive thousand yards in twenty twenty one,
it was a down year. Imean, even as a rookie, Herbert
threw for thirty one touchdowns. SoI do think we see a bounce back.
I think we see Herbert throw forover thirty touchdowns again this year.
Will he reach thirty eight? I'mnot quite sure, but I certainly think
(12:33):
thirty five is well within his range. And they added Quentin Johnson as a
first round pick. Keenan Allen's gettinga little bit older. Mike Williams is
I think stillness prime, but hashad pretty significant injury history recently, very
hard time staying on the field.If this group of wide receivers can stay
healthy, Williams, Allen, QuentinJohnson, this is why, in my
(12:56):
likelihood to finish as the overall QBone article, I had Herbert ahead of
Lawrence. If that receiving cast dayis healthy, Herbert Herbert could very easily
finish as a top three fantasy quarterback. I mean he could throw for like
forty five touchdowns, So I thinkthat's his ceiling. I think it's very
gettable. I think a lot ofit depends on factors outside of his control,
(13:18):
though, namely the health of hisvery talented wide receivers. All right,
let's move on to the next tierof quarterbacks. Here. What am
I calling this tier? I gottafind my notes here, all right,
I'm calling this tier the mixed back. Oh wait, no, that's the
next tier. I'm calling this tierthe upside machines. My tier name's kind
of stick. You just gotta bearwith me. This is Dak Prescott and
(13:41):
this is Deshaun Watson. These quarterbacksare They both have rushing ability, they
both have a good receiving cast.Prescott has Ceedee Lamb, he has Brandon
Cooks, Watson has Amari Cooper.Watson also has Nick Chubb on although I
know he'll mostly run the ball,but a lot of that pressure will be
off with him. With Nick Chubbrunning the ball a lot. Dak Prescott
(14:05):
I think has the better weapons becauseTony Pollard will be able to catch the
ball a lot. And then youknow, of course, both of these
quarterbacks can run. They're not runningas much as Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson
or Justin Fields, but they canrun at a Josh Allen esque level.
And so I think these quarterbacks belongin a tier of their own. They're
(14:26):
not with the justin Herbert. They'renot with the Trevor Lawrence. There's a
little bit of a what have youdone for me recently? With these two
quarterbacks. I always go back toDak Prescott just a couple of years ago.
He only played five games where hewas averaging thirty two Fantasy points per
game. We know over a monthlong stretch, that's the ceiling is massive.
And then Deshaun Watson has posted topfive fantasy Fantasy finishes when he was
(14:48):
in Houston before. So I'm writingoff a little bit of Watson's first year
in Cleveland. I think there wasa lot of rust there. I think
we see a step forward from himin terms of fantasy production. And then
Prescott, I think I know prettymuch what we're gonna get with him.
I don't think Prescott is going tofinish, as you know, a top
two, top three fantasy quarterback,but I think he's very very firmly in
the top ten, like an extremelysafe bet to finish in the top ten.
(15:13):
Okay, the next category is themixed bag. Again. Like I
said, I know my tier namesare terrible. Bear with me. This
is Daniel Jones, this is Tuah, this is Kirk Cousins, This is
Aaron Rodgers, this is Jared Goff, this is Russell Wilson, and this
is Anthony Richardson. So a biggercategory here. The name itself kind of
(15:35):
gives away what I'm talking about.My favorite quarterbacks in this group are Tua,
Our, Jared Goff, and ourDaniel Jones. Tuah is just hard
not to really like him because hehas Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle. Again,
you can stack because twas going laterin the draft. You can like
full stack the Dolphins. They're gonnahave some absolutely massive weeks and if you
(15:58):
get into the playoffs and they havea couple massive weeks, you're going to
advance. So really like him forbest ball. I just think that that
stackability in that upside is just monstrous. Jared Goff is extremely cheap, and
you stack him with the monra stBrown Jamison Williams with a six game suspension
(16:18):
is massively cheap now, although ofcourse you have to eat the six game
suspension. Really like Jared Goff.He was a top twelve Fantasy quarterback last
year, and in twenty eighteen hewas the overall QB six in Fantasy.
I mean in twenty eighteen. Iknow feels like a long time ago,
but I feel like that Ram's offenseis maybe pretty similar to what we're gonna
see with the Lions. I mean, it's not just me. The NFL
(16:41):
decided to put the Lions in.I don't know what the ratings pan out
to be, but they put theLions against the Chiefs on Opening Night.
Like, if that doesn't tell youthat this Lions team is probably going to
be pretty dang fun, I don'tknow what will. So I'm buying the
hype. I'm in on Jared Goffand then Daniel Jones. I'm willing to
(17:03):
admit that I've been wrong about him. I still don't. I'm still not
willing to admit that I don't thinkhe's a great quarterback. But he is
a better fantasy quarterback than I've evergiven given him credit for. He was
the QB eleven overall last year.Obviously, super duper up and down with
Daniel Jones. Like I've said acouple times on this just on this podcast,
that's okay in Bestball. I mean, if you're if you're spending a
(17:26):
second round pick, like if you'redrafting Patrick Mahomes, you're not okay with
the up and down. You needthat every week production. But if you're
spending a later round pick on DanielJones, maybe you get a couple of
up and down quarterbacks. Maybe theirweeks will even out, and you'll you'll
have elite production without the elite withoutthe elite cost. So Jones's ceiling is
extremely high, and that's because ofhis rushing ability. Again, from a
(17:49):
rushing perspective, is similar to likeDeshaun Watson, but I actually think a
little bit higher. He's He's almostlike in a tier between Watson and Prescott
and then you know Fields and LamarJackson. I guess you could compare it
similar to Josh Allen in terms ofrushing upside and ability from Daniel Jones.
(18:10):
Okay, I'm not gonna talk aboutevery quarterback on this list. Anthony Richardson,
Yeah, the upside's huge. No, I'm not spending a top ten
pick on him right now. Ihave him ranked as my QB fourteen.
I just don't feel amazing about it. But yeah, I mean I talked
on previous podcasts how much I loveRichardson. Just such an athletic specimen.
(18:30):
You want that on your fantasy team. Is he going to be the starter
though? Is the real question?And I think that's a pretty significantly important
question. I hope Daniel Kelly doesn'tlisten to this podcast because I think I
just had pretty significantly and I'm notsure that that would fly from an editor.
He's the editor at FTN. Forthose of you who would not understand
(18:51):
that inside joke, I'm putting RussellWilson in here. He was absolutely,
absolutely, absolutely garbage last year.Did you guys follow the TikTok's where somebody
was going through and every week theywould post an update and they would say,
has Russell Wilson thrown for more touchdownsthan he has bathrooms in his new
home? And the answer never cametrue. He never threw for enough touchdowns
(19:14):
he had more bathrooms in his house. I don't know who who made that
series, but shout out to whoeverhad that clever idea. But Sean Payton's
now there. They still have goodwide receivers. Russell Wilson spent a decade
being good in Seattle. I refusedto believe that he just turned into turned
into a complete pumpkin. So yeah, I still have some faith in Russell
(19:34):
Wilson. Okay, the final group. I actually don't feel great about this.
One of the players in this group. I should have put this player
in the mixed bag group. GinoSmith, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr,
Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, KylerMurray does not deserve to be in this
group. I think he's I thinkhe's honestly, I think he's in the
(19:56):
Upside Machines. I should have puthim two tears up with the Shawn Watson
and La Prescott. I think thereal question is, you know Murray's health.
If Murray is going to be healthyat the start of the year,
then yeah, he firmly belongs inthat Upside Machines tier Tier four with Watson
and Prescott because you can run.He can run a lot, and when
(20:17):
you run as a quarterback and fantasyyou know the drill, you score fantasy
points. If he's not going tobe healthy, then sure you can place
him in this What have you donefor me lately? Tier? Gino Smith?
Maybe this was another terrible tier name. I really probably should not have
named to these tiers. I probablyshould have just done Tier one, Tier
two, Tier three. Gino Smith'spretty dang good last year, but he
(20:37):
wasn't, you know, an elitefantasy quarterback. Definitely a good fantasy QB
two to have for underduck though,And they added JSN so they've got him
in the slot. They got TylerLockett and DK Metcalf out wide, very
good receiving cast love it, DerekCarr, Jordan Love. We haven't seen
what he's done. Matthew Stafford waspretty good two years ago. Last year
(20:59):
was just completely locked onto Cooper Cup. So Cooper Cup is still ranked really
high. Matthew Stafford is going toneed some additional support. He did not
look good last year. So Ithink the tier name here, what have
you done for me for me lately, very appropriately belongs to players like Derek
Carr and Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford. All right, if I did not
name a quarterback, it means thatthey're just kind of in the rest of
(21:21):
the bunch, you know, theMac Jones, the Kenny Pickett. I'm
taking those players. If I'm draftingmaybe three quarterbacks in Bestball, if I'm
taking two, I'm trying to gettwo of the group that I just mentioned.
I think that will do it.Thank you for listening to the first
edition of the QB Tiers. Wewill go through this again because I do
(21:42):
think there's going to be some moversand shakers, but quarterback rankings typically don't
change that that much, especially postdraft when we know and post free agency
when we know who the weapons aregoing to be on certain teams. So
don't expect a lot of change.But what we will revisit this topic as
we get closer to the season.All right, everybody, thanks for listening
(22:02):
to episode eleven of the FtM BestballCast. Be sure to check out everything
we have to offer on ft andfantasy dot Com. You can use code
peaches to save twenty percent on anyof our subscriptions. Thanks for listening.
I'll talk to you next time.
What's up? People? Welcome toepisode eleven of the FTN Bestball Cast,
presented by the FTN Podcast Network.As always, I'm your host, Tyler
Lochner find me on Twitter at LochnerNFL, and I am hyped about today's
topic. Bestball season I think isofficially here. I know we've been doing
(00:26):
this podcast for a while, butwith the Puppy live on Underdog with Best
Ball Millionaire Maker Live on Underdog,the time is here. Where in the
second half of May. The draftis in the books. Guys, it's
time to do our first set ofquarterback rankings, and we're gonna do it
in tiers. We're gonna go QBtears because honestly, you can nitpick about
(00:47):
the rankings. Oh, this guy'sninth or he should be tenth. The
bottom line is everyone knows tears arereally where it's at. If you get
a quarterback within a tier, you'repretty happy. So that's it pretty simple
topic. We're gonna do tears forall the different positions. We're going to
revisit this topic again in the future, but we're starting with quarterbacks here.
I'm recording on May seventeenth, beingreleased on the same day it's early in
(01:10):
the morning. Let's get to it. Tier number one. You know who's
in this tier. It is theelite, the big dogs, the guys
you want on your team, butyou're gonna have to send spend a second
round pick on at least on underdog. This is the elite. This is
Josh Allen, this is Patrick Mahomes, and yes, this is Jalen Hurts.
I mean, pick who you wantout of this group. Pick who
(01:34):
you want to stack with. Outof this group. You're happy no matter
who you If you get any ofthese quarterbacks, you're happy with it.
The only downside is that you dohave to spend a second round pick.
Last year it was a third roundpick. Quarterbacks have increased in value,
I thought, I mean midway throughlast year, I was like, oh,
I got this, Like late roundquarterback is dead, you know,
(01:55):
early round quarterback is where it's at. I thought that I was the only
one who was really seeing the trend. By the time February drafts rolled around,
people were already on it. Socertainly people have gotten sharper in the
draft rooms. But I am tellingyou it is okay. It is correct.
You want one of these elite quarterbacks. You don't have to draft this
one of these top one of thequarterbacks in this top tier, but you
(02:15):
do want a solid quarterback. Thedifference between the upper end quarterbacks and the
lower end quarterbacks has never been biggerin terms of what they bring to the
table for you. For best Balland this group, Alan Mahomes, Hurts,
this is the group that you wantif you're going to spend a premium
pick on quarterback. Now. Onething that's really great about this group too,
(02:38):
is that it's pretty easy to stackright now with their top pass catchers.
Josh Allen's ad AP. Josh Allen'sADP lines up very neatly with where
you would have to draft Stefon Diggsin the first round, So you can
pretty easily start with Steph Diggs andthen Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes. Ditto
with Travis Kelcey. You can getKelsey and Mahomes and then Jalen Hurts.
(02:59):
It's a little bit more difficult withHurts to get the full stack with Hurts,
A J. Brown and DeVante Smith, but it's possible. I mean,
if you do just one draft,it's probably not going to happen.
But if you do a handful ofdrafts, it's it's going to happen,
and it's definitely not uncommon to getboth Hurts and one of those pass catchers
at least so so if you're goingfor the onslaught, even that's possible.
(03:20):
So love that about these players.If it was borderline impossible to stack one
of these quarterbacks, I would havea lot less interest in them, and
that second round price tag would bea little bit more difficult to swallow.
But if you draft one of thosepass catchers in the first round, honestly,
you should probably be looking at oneof these quarterbacks in the second round,
(03:40):
just to complete that elite stack.As for which one of these quarterbacks
you should take first, again,like I said, if you if you
picked one of their teammates, Ithink that becomes the tiebreaker. But right
now, it's like anybody's guess they'reADPs. Mahomes is technically going first,
but his ADP is eighteen point five, Hurts is technically going second with an
ADP of nineteen point eight, andAlan is technically going third with an ADP
(04:02):
of nineteen point nine. So Imean they're all literally going within an average
of one and a half picks ofeach other. They're going back to back
to back. I don't think itreally matters that much which order you take
them in, So Mahomes. Thefunny thing is, last year I actually
didn't have Mahomes in Tier one.I don't think many people did. I
(04:23):
thought that losing Tyreek Hill would hurthim. I mean, logically, you
would think that losing the fastest,best deep tart in the NFL would hurt
quarterback. Now Patrick Mahomes comes out, he wins MVP, he wins the
Super Bowl. He's just as goodas ever. So yeah, clearly belongs
in Tier one. I got onmy face for thinking that losing a weapon
(04:43):
would impact Patrick Malomes. I'm prettysure I could go out there and he
would still put up QB one numbers. So Hurts took a big leap forward
as a passer. Last year.He wasn't He wasn't launching Mahomes like numbers
as a passer, but he didpass for twenty two touchdowns just six interceptions.
A solid deep ball game. Obviouslygot the elite wide receivers. Dallas
Goddard's a great tight end. Theyjust added DeAndre Swift, so we might
(05:06):
see some more passing in that angle, and then of course he's the best
goal line rusher in the NFL.You know, pretty much a lock to
score double digit touchdowns. Again,He's the new Cam Newton in terms of
a quarterback rushing touchdown upside. Andthen Allen has gone three straight years with
either being the overall quarterback one orvery nearly the overall quarterback one in fantasy.
(05:30):
Stefon Diggs and Gave Davis both bothreturn. Dawson Knox is there,
and they added a second tight endin Dalton Kincaide. James Cook, the
pass catching running back, is enteringhis second year. They added Damien Harris,
which is I think just a onefor one replacement for Devin Singletary.
And then the real hype moment wouldbe if Dalvin Cook ends up getting released
and picked up by the Bills ortraded to the Bills. Everything is looking
(05:54):
like Alan will be as good asever, and I don't think you're not
going to go wrong with any ofthese quarterbacks. All right, let's get
on to the next tier. Ihad no idea what to name this tier.
The boring name is the also Elite, but you know, not Alan
Mahomes or Hurts. Really, Ithink the better name is the rushing quarterbacks
(06:15):
and Joe Burrow because this group isLamar Jackson. This group is Joe Burrow,
and this group is justin Fields.Now, if you were to ask
me, and I actually wrote thisarticle, which one of these quarterbacks has
the best chance of finishing is theoverall QB one, I would put Fields
and Jackson in their own tier,and then Burrow would kind of be in
a tier right below that. Butin terms of underdog best ball rankings,
(06:39):
underdog bastball tiers, it's Jackson,Burrow, and Fields I think together.
The reason I think Jackson and Fieldshave higher upside is very simply just because
of their rushing ability. But Burrowis, you know, much more established
as a passer much is going tobe much more consistent as a passion as
a passer. So Jackson finally finallylanded back in Baltimore. The big question
(07:01):
was whether or not he was evengoing to be there. I don't there
was never a question as to whetheror not he was going to be a
starting quarterback for some team. Butthe thing that a lot actually has changed
in Baltimore despite Lamar Jackson returning,We're going to see a very new Baltimore
offense in twenty twenty three. ToddMonkin is now the offensive coordinator, so
we're going to see more passing.And on top of that, they have
(07:21):
invested around Jackson for what feels likethe first time in his career. Mark
Andrews is still there, so anelite, big bodied tight end Rashad Bateman
returns, hopefully finally healthy. Theyspent a first round draft pick on Za
Flowers, who some people had ranked. I mean most people had JSN ranked
as the number one wide receiver,but I want to say that Zay Flowers.
(07:44):
I saw him going ahead of Jasonand at least in some lock drafts.
And then they added Odell Beckham aswell, who a little bit of
a wild card, but I'm abig believer in Beckham. So Jackson has
this great, great receiving Cassie asa new offensive coordinator. He's excited to
pass the ball more. He sayshe's going to throw the ball for over
six thousand yards. That's not goingto happen, but I do think we're
going to see more passing from Jackson, and I just I'm not discrediting Jackson
(08:09):
as a passer by any stretch.I mean, I said, Burrow is
more established as a passer, moreconsistent as a passer. But guys,
Jackson led the NFL in passing touchdownsa couple of years ago when he was
the MVP. He is a verygood passer. He now has very good
passing weapons, and he's still goingto run the ball like he could still
run for over a thousand yards.Love Jackson firmly have him ranked fourth overall
(08:31):
among quarterbacks, and honestly, Jacksonto me is almost like in a tier
of his own, in between theelite and what I'm calling the also elite
fields is in a very similar boatto Jackson. I mean, how can
you not rank him as in thesecond tier of quarterbacks. He absolutely caught
fire after a slow first month ofthe year last year. He finished as
(08:54):
a top ten fantasy quarterback every singleweek from weeks five through fifteen. Okay,
on a per game basis, hewas the overall QB three in that
span, behind only Mahomes and Hurts. I mean, he was outscoring Josh
Allen. He only threw for twentytwo hundred passing yards on the year,
and seventeen touchdowns against eleven interceptions.A lot of upside as a passer.
(09:16):
Fortunately, fortunately the Bears have investedpassing resources around him. They added DJ
Moore, Yeah, they I meanthey traded for Chase Claypool last year.
TBD how that pans out. Istill think Claypool is has at least the
athletic profile to be a dominant widereceiver. The bottom line is they have
(09:37):
bought into fields. That was thebig question last year, Like when freaking
Valis Jones was their number one widereceiver. That's not true. Darnell Mooney
always was. I'm making a littlebit of a joke, but the Bears
are buying into justin fields. I'mbuying into justin fields. Oh and he
ran for over eleven hundred yards andeight touchdowns last year, so you know
(09:58):
fields. Taking a twenty two.Jalen Hurts asked leap is not out of
the question. And then Joe Burrowhas the best wide receiver cast in the
NFL. Is he's just an elitetalent. I think your bank he's like
the new Tom Brady. Right,You're not going to get a lot of
rushing production out of him, butyou're gonna get a heck of a lot
(10:20):
of passing production. You're gonna getsome really high ceiling games, which obviously
is great in best ball. Andlike I mentioned, with the elite tier,
Burrow is very stackable. With hispass catchers, you can very reasonably
get Joe Burrow, T Higgins,Angel Mar Chase, so love Burrow firmly
belongs in this field. Okay,the next tier the young guns, justin
(10:43):
Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Now,if again I'm putting these guys in a
tier, this is a tier ofrankings. If I wrote an article about
tiers of most likely to finish asQB one overall, in this tier,
I had Herbert Lawrence was in atier below just because I think Herbert,
I think, from a consistency standpoint, has a better has a better chance
(11:05):
of finishing as the overall QB one. But in terms of rankings, I
have these two guys right next toeach other. So on a per game
basis last year this surprised me alittle bit because I did not know this.
On a per game basis last year, Trevor Lawrence was actually the QB
seven in Fantasy, but he justwasn't consistent that you know. That's why
I was saying two seconds ago thatI think Herbert is a little bit more
(11:26):
consistent. But QB seven overall ona per game basis is great. The
problem was the consistency, although inbest ball it's not that bad if you
have another quarterback, which you're goingto with Lawrence. So Lawrence had five
games where he finished within the topfive among quarterbacks in a given week,
but he also had seven games wherehe finished outside of the top fifteen.
(11:48):
So very high ceiling, very lowfloor. I do think Lawrence gets more
consistent this year. That's why Ifirmly have him in this Tier three category.
And then justin Herbert had had adown year last year. I mean,
he threw for forty seven hundred yards, which was pretty typical. That
that was good. He completed alot of his passes. He completed sixty
eight percent of his passes. Hiscareer averages sixty six percent, so you
(12:11):
know, a big leap there.The problem was the touchdowns. He throw
only twenty five touchdowns last year comparedto twenty twenty one when he threw thirty
eight, and he threw for overfive thousand yards in twenty twenty one,
it was a down year. Imean, even as a rookie, Herbert
threw for thirty one touchdowns. SoI do think we see a bounce back.
I think we see Herbert throw forover thirty touchdowns again this year.
Will he reach thirty eight? I'mnot quite sure, but I certainly think
(12:33):
thirty five is well within his range. And they added Quentin Johnson as a
first round pick. Keenan Allen's gettinga little bit older. Mike Williams is
I think stillness prime, but hashad pretty significant injury history recently, very
hard time staying on the field.If this group of wide receivers can stay
healthy, Williams, Allen, QuentinJohnson, this is why, in my
(12:56):
likelihood to finish as the overall QBone article, I had Herbert ahead of
Lawrence. If that receiving cast dayis healthy, Herbert Herbert could very easily
finish as a top three fantasy quarterback. I mean he could throw for like
forty five touchdowns, So I thinkthat's his ceiling. I think it's very
gettable. I think a lot ofit depends on factors outside of his control,
(13:18):
though, namely the health of hisvery talented wide receivers. All right,
let's move on to the next tierof quarterbacks. Here. What am
I calling this tier? I gottafind my notes here, all right,
I'm calling this tier the mixed back. Oh wait, no, that's the
next tier. I'm calling this tierthe upside machines. My tier name's kind
of stick. You just gotta bearwith me. This is Dak Prescott and
(13:41):
this is Deshaun Watson. These quarterbacksare They both have rushing ability, they
both have a good receiving cast.Prescott has Ceedee Lamb, he has Brandon
Cooks, Watson has Amari Cooper.Watson also has Nick Chubb on although I
know he'll mostly run the ball,but a lot of that pressure will be
off with him. With Nick Chubbrunning the ball a lot. Dak Prescott
(14:05):
I think has the better weapons becauseTony Pollard will be able to catch the
ball a lot. And then youknow, of course, both of these
quarterbacks can run. They're not runningas much as Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson
or Justin Fields, but they canrun at a Josh Allen esque level.
And so I think these quarterbacks belongin a tier of their own. They're
(14:26):
not with the justin Herbert. They'renot with the Trevor Lawrence. There's a
little bit of a what have youdone for me recently? With these two
quarterbacks. I always go back toDak Prescott just a couple of years ago.
He only played five games where hewas averaging thirty two Fantasy points per
game. We know over a monthlong stretch, that's the ceiling is massive.
And then Deshaun Watson has posted topfive fantasy Fantasy finishes when he was
(14:48):
in Houston before. So I'm writingoff a little bit of Watson's first year
in Cleveland. I think there wasa lot of rust there. I think
we see a step forward from himin terms of fantasy production. And then
Prescott, I think I know prettymuch what we're gonna get with him.
I don't think Prescott is going tofinish, as you know, a top
two, top three fantasy quarterback,but I think he's very very firmly in
the top ten, like an extremelysafe bet to finish in the top ten.
(15:13):
Okay, the next category is themixed bag. Again. Like I
said, I know my tier namesare terrible. Bear with me. This
is Daniel Jones, this is Tuah, this is Kirk Cousins, This is
Aaron Rodgers, this is Jared Goff, this is Russell Wilson, and this
is Anthony Richardson. So a biggercategory here. The name itself kind of
(15:35):
gives away what I'm talking about.My favorite quarterbacks in this group are Tua,
Our, Jared Goff, and ourDaniel Jones. Tuah is just hard
not to really like him because hehas Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle. Again,
you can stack because twas going laterin the draft. You can like
full stack the Dolphins. They're gonnahave some absolutely massive weeks and if you
(15:58):
get into the playoffs and they havea couple massive weeks, you're going to
advance. So really like him forbest ball. I just think that that
stackability in that upside is just monstrous. Jared Goff is extremely cheap, and
you stack him with the monra stBrown Jamison Williams with a six game suspension
(16:18):
is massively cheap now, although ofcourse you have to eat the six game
suspension. Really like Jared Goff.He was a top twelve Fantasy quarterback last
year, and in twenty eighteen hewas the overall QB six in Fantasy.
I mean in twenty eighteen. Iknow feels like a long time ago,
but I feel like that Ram's offenseis maybe pretty similar to what we're gonna
see with the Lions. I mean, it's not just me. The NFL
(16:41):
decided to put the Lions in.I don't know what the ratings pan out
to be, but they put theLions against the Chiefs on Opening Night.
Like, if that doesn't tell youthat this Lions team is probably going to
be pretty dang fun, I don'tknow what will. So I'm buying the
hype. I'm in on Jared Goffand then Daniel Jones. I'm willing to
(17:03):
admit that I've been wrong about him. I still don't. I'm still not
willing to admit that I don't thinkhe's a great quarterback. But he is
a better fantasy quarterback than I've evergiven given him credit for. He was
the QB eleven overall last year.Obviously, super duper up and down with
Daniel Jones. Like I've said acouple times on this just on this podcast,
that's okay in Bestball. I mean, if you're if you're spending a
(17:26):
second round pick, like if you'redrafting Patrick Mahomes, you're not okay with
the up and down. You needthat every week production. But if you're
spending a later round pick on DanielJones, maybe you get a couple of
up and down quarterbacks. Maybe theirweeks will even out, and you'll you'll
have elite production without the elite withoutthe elite cost. So Jones's ceiling is
extremely high, and that's because ofhis rushing ability. Again, from a
(17:49):
rushing perspective, is similar to likeDeshaun Watson, but I actually think a
little bit higher. He's He's almostlike in a tier between Watson and Prescott
and then you know Fields and LamarJackson. I guess you could compare it
similar to Josh Allen in terms ofrushing upside and ability from Daniel Jones.
(18:10):
Okay, I'm not gonna talk aboutevery quarterback on this list. Anthony Richardson,
Yeah, the upside's huge. No, I'm not spending a top ten
pick on him right now. Ihave him ranked as my QB fourteen.
I just don't feel amazing about it. But yeah, I mean I talked
on previous podcasts how much I loveRichardson. Just such an athletic specimen.
(18:30):
You want that on your fantasy team. Is he going to be the starter
though? Is the real question?And I think that's a pretty significantly important
question. I hope Daniel Kelly doesn'tlisten to this podcast because I think I
just had pretty significantly and I'm notsure that that would fly from an editor.
He's the editor at FTN. Forthose of you who would not understand
(18:51):
that inside joke, I'm putting RussellWilson in here. He was absolutely,
absolutely, absolutely garbage last year.Did you guys follow the TikTok's where somebody
was going through and every week theywould post an update and they would say,
has Russell Wilson thrown for more touchdownsthan he has bathrooms in his new
home? And the answer never cametrue. He never threw for enough touchdowns
(19:14):
he had more bathrooms in his house. I don't know who who made that
series, but shout out to whoeverhad that clever idea. But Sean Payton's
now there. They still have goodwide receivers. Russell Wilson spent a decade
being good in Seattle. I refusedto believe that he just turned into turned
into a complete pumpkin. So yeah, I still have some faith in Russell
(19:34):
Wilson. Okay, the final group. I actually don't feel great about this.
One of the players in this group. I should have put this player
in the mixed bag group. GinoSmith, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr,
Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, KylerMurray does not deserve to be in this
group. I think he's I thinkhe's honestly, I think he's in the
(19:56):
Upside Machines. I should have puthim two tears up with the Shawn Watson
and La Prescott. I think thereal question is, you know Murray's health.
If Murray is going to be healthyat the start of the year,
then yeah, he firmly belongs inthat Upside Machines tier Tier four with Watson
and Prescott because you can run.He can run a lot, and when
(20:17):
you run as a quarterback and fantasyyou know the drill, you score fantasy
points. If he's not going tobe healthy, then sure you can place
him in this What have you donefor me lately? Tier? Gino Smith?
Maybe this was another terrible tier name. I really probably should not have
named to these tiers. I probablyshould have just done Tier one, Tier
two, Tier three. Gino Smith'spretty dang good last year, but he
(20:37):
wasn't, you know, an elitefantasy quarterback. Definitely a good fantasy QB
two to have for underduck though,And they added JSN so they've got him
in the slot. They got TylerLockett and DK Metcalf out wide, very
good receiving cast love it, DerekCarr, Jordan Love. We haven't seen
what he's done. Matthew Stafford waspretty good two years ago. Last year
(20:59):
was just completely locked onto Cooper Cup. So Cooper Cup is still ranked really
high. Matthew Stafford is going toneed some additional support. He did not
look good last year. So Ithink the tier name here, what have
you done for me for me lately, very appropriately belongs to players like Derek
Carr and Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford. All right, if I did not
name a quarterback, it means thatthey're just kind of in the rest of
(21:21):
the bunch, you know, theMac Jones, the Kenny Pickett. I'm
taking those players. If I'm draftingmaybe three quarterbacks in Bestball, if I'm
taking two, I'm trying to gettwo of the group that I just mentioned.
I think that will do it.Thank you for listening to the first
edition of the QB Tiers. Wewill go through this again because I do
(21:42):
think there's going to be some moversand shakers, but quarterback rankings typically don't
change that that much, especially postdraft when we know and post free agency
when we know who the weapons aregoing to be on certain teams. So
don't expect a lot of change.But what we will revisit this topic as
we get closer to the season.All right, everybody, thanks for listening
(22:02):
to episode eleven of the FtM BestballCast. Be sure to check out everything
we have to offer on ft andfantasy dot Com. You can use code
peaches to save twenty percent on anyof our subscriptions. Thanks for listening.
I'll talk to you next time.
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