May 24, 2023 • 22 mins
Tyler Loechner of FTNFantasy.com runs through his initial set of RB tiers for the 2023 Underdog Fantasy best ball season. Christian McCaffrey tops Tyler's tier list, but where does Bijan Robinson land? What about Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook?
Also check out Tyler's piece on the RBs most likely to finish as the No. 1 overall RB in 2023.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:04):
What's up, my people? Welcometo episode twelve of the FTN Bestball Cast,
presented by the FtM Podcast Network.As always, I am your host,
Tyler Lochner. You can find meon Twitter at Lochner NFL. We're
continuing our run through tiers today.We're looking at RB tiers specifically through the
(00:28):
lens of Underdog Fantasy. I knowDraftKings has their Best Ball drafts in full
swing as well. To be honestwith you, the rankings are pretty similar
for Underdog and for DraftKings. Iknow DraftKings has the full PPR format,
but not too much change there.I mean you bump up players like like
like McCaffrey or Austin Eckler, vermondreStevenson, those guys get bumped up a
(00:52):
little bit, but overall, likethe RB tiers, RB rings are not
dissimilar between half and full PPR.Pretty straight forward concept here. I will
be having an article published as wellon the most likely running backs to finish
as the RB overall one. Ido that article in tier groupings as well,
but it's a little bit different ofa topic right. This podcast is
(01:14):
about tiers from a ranking and froma drafting perspective. That article is really
about upside like tiers on who hasthe best chance to finish as the overall
RB one. Like. For example, I have Nick Chubb in the third
tier. Given a little bit ofa spoiler away for later on in this
podcast, I have Nick Chubb inthe third tier here. He's probably not
(01:37):
going to be in the third tierfor the likelihood of finishing as the overall
RB one. I think he'll bea little bit lower. So I feel
like Chub's a good example, right, very solid player, upside of finishing
his overall RB one's not quite there. So two different tiers. This podcast
is drafting tiers. The article isbasically upside tiers. Check that out.
(01:57):
I'll provide a link in the podcastdescription. All right, we're gonna start
things off with the number one tier. If you listen to the Quarterback article
or the Quarterback podcast on this Itried. I tried to get some cute
names. It didn't work. Itried to do cute names for the tiers.
Did not work. This timers cannado Tier one S tier, Christian
(02:21):
McCaffrey, Austin Eckler, Bijean Robinson. I have them in that order.
It's not the order they're being drafted. McCaffrey is ADP is right around three
or four, and drafts usually goJustin Jefferson, Jamar Chas and then Christian
McCaffrey. Bijean Robinson's ADP is rightat seven, Austin Eckler's ADP is between
eleven and twelve. I actually haveEckler ranked ahead of Bijean. I'm doing,
(02:45):
you know, several drafts, andso I do I want some Bijean
Robinson exposure this year. So Iam drafting Bijean ahead of Austin Eckler in
some drafts. But if look,if you put me in like a high
entry contest, high entry free contest, or if you're just doing one draft
or two drafts, you don't necessarilyhave to play the numbers, like,
(03:06):
just take the player that you wantto take. So if you're sitting there,
if you have Austin Eckler ranked aheadof Bijean Robinson, you're on the
board at seven, you don't haveto take beijon just because everyone else is
taking him ahead. Right. Sothat's kind of how I would operate if
I was just doing one draft.In any event, I have all three
of these players in the same tier. McCaffrey I have ranked one on one
(03:28):
overall. I don't really have aproblem with people taking Justin Jefferson ahead of
him. Jamar Chase is fine,I guess, but really I would the
only player I would really consider wouldbe Justin Jefferson. But McCaffrey's might one
oh one again he was last year. Just the consistency, the upside that
usage over one hundred yards or atouchdown and basically every single game last year,
(03:50):
switch teams midway through the year.His second week with the forty nine
ers, he scored over forty fantasypoints. Had one hundred and seven targets
last year, seven hundred thirty seven, seven hundred and thirty seven receiving yards,
one thousand, one hundred and thirtynine rushing yards. So he's going
to be a player who will rackup between seventeen hundred and two thousand total
(04:12):
yards for you. We'll probably catchbetween eighty and one hundred balls, one
hundred probably on the higher end.And he scored thirteen touchdowns last year.
And I know Elijah Mitchell was beingused kind of close to the goal line
in some games, and there waskind of a not great split for Christian
McCaffrey. But really all that meansis McCaffrey is no longer Ladanian Tomlinson.
(04:33):
He's no longer just like the superabundantly obvious one on one in fantasy football.
I still think he's the one onone, But Ladanian Tomlinson was the
most legendary fantasy football player we've seenin the last twenty five years. McCaffrey
was the closest we've come to that. Maybe he's not at that level anymore,
but he's still gonna get He's stillgonna get twenty touches a game,
which is plenty for a player.When six of those touches or five of
(04:55):
those touches every game, we're gonnabe receptions. But Eckler was the one
last year, and I do haveBejean in this Tier one. I just
think it's a really great landing spot. The reason I have Ekeler ahead of
him is because Cordell Patterson's still there, so I and Tyler aug year.
I just don't think he's going tobecome completely irrelevant. I'm not saying Bijean
is necessarily threatened by those players.Look, I do still have him in
(05:18):
the Tier one, right, Butthere's that's the reason I don't have Bijean
ranked as like RB one, whichI as some people do. And Eckler.
Love Eckler one hundred and seven receptionslast year. He's he's Christian McCaffrey
but just doesn't run the ball quiteas much. But honestly he scores more
touchdowns. He had eighteen touchdowns lastyear. So absolutely love Eckler. Been
(05:40):
my boy for almost a decade now, So love that, all right.
The next tier is I have JonathanTaylor and I have Sequon Barkley. Their
ADP is early second round. Taylor'sthirteen right now so often goes on the
turn. Barkley is sixteen to seventeen. These players are very easily you could
(06:02):
put them in Tier one, andI wouldn't argue. Jonathan Taylor is just
one year removed from being the fromthe one oh one pretty much consensus from
everybody except for me. He hadeight hundred and sixty one rushing yards last
year, but it was also aninjury played year. He only scored four
total touchdowns last year. He hadeighteen the year before. He's going to
be somewhere between those two numbers thisyear, and from a receiving perspective,
(06:26):
he was catching the ball a littlebit more at least early on in the
year last year. So I likethe upside there and then Barkley. Things
are looking better for the Giants offense. Brian Dable made a big difference.
Daniel Jones I talked about on thelast podcast. Don't love him, but
he's capable of having this team scorepoints, So I'll say that, and
I think that very much helps Barkley. Barkley had over thirteen hundred rushing yards
(06:47):
last year, really really productive seasonon the ground. Would have liked to
see more from him through the air. He didn't catch a single touchdown pass
last year. Fifty seven receptions,three hundred and thirty eight receiving yards.
We know is capable of a lotmore than that. I hope we see
it this year. It's truly theonly thing keeping him from Tier one though.
All right, the next tier,you know one of the players on
(07:10):
there, I already spoiled it isNick Chubb. The next year has six
running backs in it, so we'vegone through five. So this is basically
the rest of the fantasy RB Ones, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Josh
Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Bruce Hall, and Romandre Stevenson. Now, I
think within this tier there are twovery distinct groups. I think Nick Chubb,
(07:31):
Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs arekind of in their own group.
These are running backs who are notgoing to catch the ball a ton,
and then Tony Pollard, Bruce Hall, and Romandre Stevenson are running backs who
very well could catch the ball aton. Now, Josh Jacobs is kind
of borderline between those two groups.You know, Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry
are very similar to each other inthe fact that they are just absolute bruisers
(07:54):
on the ground. Chubb last yearhad three hundred and two rushing attempts for
over fifteen hundred yards and twelve touchdowns. Henry had three hundred and fifty technically
three hundred and forty nine rushing attempts, also had fifteen one hundred yards and
scored thirteen touchdowns. So from arushing perspective, Henry and Chubb were basically
identical, and then from a receivingperspective, they were basically identical as well.
(08:16):
Chubb had thirty seven targets, DerrickHenry had forty one. Derrick Henry
did a lot more with those targets. He had four hundred receiving yards.
Chubb only had two hundred and thirtynine between the two of them combined,
though they only had one receiving touchdownthat was Nick Chubb. So those players
are going to get it done onthe ground. I think Henry probably has
one more year of doing it.Chubb might have a couple more solidly Tier
(08:39):
three players. Derrick Henry's going atthe early third round, Nick Chubb is
going at the late second round withan ADP overall of twenty one, and
then Josh Jak Gibs is kind ofin between those two groups. He had
three hundred and forty rushing attempts lastyear, which is just the monstrously huge
number one, six hundred and fiftythree yards, twelve rushing touchdowns. So
on the ground he was basically NickChubb and Derrick Henry. In fact,
(09:01):
he was a little bit better thanthen. He had about one hundred more
total rushing yards, and then healso caught the ball more. He had
sixty five targets, so like twentytwenty five more targets than those two players.
Fifty three receptions four hundred receiving yards, but he also did not score
any receiving touchdowns. You know,when we're talking about like Eckler or McCaffrey,
(09:22):
b Jean Robinson probably expecting somewhere betweenlike four and six receiving touchdowns from
that group, and I would expectSaquon Barkley to be there this year.
I really don't know how Barkley didn'tscore any receiving touchdowns last year. Chub,
Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs between zeroand two just not going to get
receiving touchdowns from them. So they'rein that kind of third tier as a
(09:46):
group amongst themselves. And then TonyPollard, Bruce Hall and ramondre Stevenson,
they are in a group. They'rein that tier three I think overall for
rankings, but they catch the balla lot more so honestly, if i'm
and these players are actually a littlebit cheaper too. So Tony Pollard is
not his ADP is twenty two,but Brees Hall his ADP is twenty eight.
(10:09):
He's going behind Chub, Henry andJacobs, and then ramondre Stevenson is
going the latest out of all ofthese players, and to be honest with
you, Stevenson might be my favoriteof the bunch. With Damian Harris no
longer in New England, Stevenson isjust going to catch. Like the advanced
metrics, Stevenson absolutely pops from areceiving perspective, like Austin Ekeler level of
good, Christian McCaffrey level of goodas a receiver. Really like Stevenson at
(10:33):
his current ADP, which is themiddle of the middle of the third round.
All right, our Tier four group. I have five running backs in
this tier and this is kind ofthe tier that I'm not like one hundred
percent sure what to do with.I really like drafting a couple of these
players. I really don't like draftingsome of the other ones. And from
an ADP perspective, it spans acrosstwo rounds. This is I think you
(10:54):
hear the term RB dead zone.I think this is where in twenty twenty
three drafts, this is where ittransition into the RB dead zone. We
have Travis Etn Naja Harris, KennethWalker, Jamir Gibbs, and Aaron Jones
in this group. So et NI could have put him in the Tier
three. I'm a little concerned abouthis role. He got competition through the
(11:15):
draft. He wasn't used as heavilyas a rusher as we would have liked
to see. Even last year,he had two hundred and twenty rushing attempts,
which is fine, but I meanhe was super good with them.
He had one one hundred and twentyfive rushing yards. He averaged five point
one yards per carry last year.He also wasn't used as much through the
air, though we would have likedto see, only thirty five receptions three
(11:37):
hundred and fourteen receiving yards, zerotouchdowns through the air. Et n is
I have him ranked as RB twelve, and that's where he's being drafted as
well. I think it's fine.He's borderline Tier three Tier four for me.
I probably Etn's kind of like inhis own tier. I just he's
like Tier three point five. Therest of these players are very solidly Tier
(11:58):
four for me. Naja Harris hasranked in the bottom ten in Fantasy points
over expectation or in his case,Fantasy points under expectation. Just a volume
king lining up to be a volumeking again in twenty twenty three. But
I'm not convinced that he's going toget as much volume this year. If
you're really inefficient with your touches inthe NFL, you're againnas start to be
(12:20):
replaced. We saw it last yearstart to happen over the final month of
the year with Jaylen Warren. NajaHarris's stranglehold as the primary person running out
of the backfield for the Pittsburgh Steelersis coming to an end. I think
I think we're gonna see a littlebit more of a split backfield there.
Don't love drafting Etn at his currentADP of thirty eight point five. I
think that needs to be about tenpicks later. I think he needs to
(12:41):
be going where where Kenneth Walker iscurrently going, which is ADP of forty
seven. Walker is in a similarsituation to Travis et and I think that's
why I put both of these runningbacks in this year. It got competition
through the draft that like, wejust don't we don't want to see that
Walker. Before this, he's RBfifteen right now. He was being drafted
(13:03):
as like the RB six or sevenor eight. So he saw his draft
stock really plummet, and for goodreason, Pete Carroll comes out. He's
like, I just wanted to draftrunning backs. I want players who can
run the ball. They also draftedJackson's Nijigba, so kind of kind of
like saying one thing and doing another. But I mean, kudos to the
(13:24):
Seattle Seahawks for taking the players thatthey like. I think I really doubted
them last year when they got ridof Russell Wilson. They still made the
playoffs. They even gave the fortyNiners are running for their money. Kenneth
Walker was a part of that,but he's not the only part of that.
This team really does have some goodplayers. Tyler Lockett, of course,
is still their DK, Metcalf isstill there. Kenneth Walker will be
in the picture. I think he'sa good RB two. I think his
(13:45):
ADP is fair, but certainly he'sa high risk hiro word player. Actually,
I wouldn't even call it high risk. He's not high risk. He's
going to produce for you, andthe upside is really there. I think
I'm just comparing it too much tohis pre draft valuation, where he was
going as like the RB six orseven in some drafts. Jamir Gibbs.
Right now, his ADP is thirtynine. Obviously drafted very high by the
(14:09):
Detroit Lions, and then they tradedaway DeAndre Swift. Jamal Williams is no
longer there, but they do stillhave David Montgomery. So the big question
is how much will Gibbs be used. I think his price right now is
a little too expensive ADP of thirtynine. I think he should probably be
again eight nine picks later mid forties, mid to late forties in terms of
(14:31):
ADP. But again, if youwant to if you're doing multiple drafts and
you want exposure to a numerous ofthese players, sometimes you're going to have
to spend a little bit more thanmaybe exactly where you have them ranked.
And that's that's a personal preference thing, right If you want to be hard
and fast with your ranks and youdon't want to have draft a player ahead
of where you have them ranked,then you just have to accept the fact
(14:52):
that some players Jamire Gibbs would beone of them for me, some players
you just might not end up rosterbecause the fact of the matter is,
I personally might have him valued alittle bit lower than where his ADP currently
is, but his ADP is themarket set value. So is that a
price that I'm willing to pay?In a single draft, No, in
(15:15):
many drafts. Yeah, I'll doit a couple times. Aaron Jones is
the next player in this tier.Just I think he has a few things
working against him. Number one firstand foremost is he has major competition from
aj Dillon. Aaron Jones only hadtwo rushing touchdowns last year. It was
still hyper efficient with touching the ballfive point three yards per carry, scored
(15:37):
five rushing scored, five receiving touchdowns. But with Aaron Rodgers no longer they
are Aaron Rodgers loved Aaron Jones.I mean you remember a few years ago
the hashtag free Aaron Jones was trendingon Twitter, and it was because Aaron
Rodgers was like we I forget theexact quote, but it was something along
the lines that we really need tofind a way to get the ball into
(15:58):
Aaron Jones's hands more. When youhave one of the greatest quarterbacks of all
time who wants to get you theball, you're probably gonna get the ball.
Jordan Love could be great, he'snot going to be Aaron Rodgers.
So I am a little nervous aboutAaron Jones there. I think he's a
fine RB two for Fantasy football,but don't love it. And honestly,
the primary reason I don't love itis because Aaron Rodgers isn't there anymore.
(16:21):
It's just I think he was hisguy. Okay, Tier five this is
I think really the RB dead zone. There's a couple of players in here
who really have big upside. Butif the last tier was the transition into
the RBY dead zone, I thinkthis is where it really is. This
tier is Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook, JK Dobbins, Damian Pierce, Joe
(16:44):
Mixon, DeAndre Swift, Isaiah Pacheco, Cam Akers, and Rashad White.
Now I do think there's some goodvalues in this tier. Rashad White,
I really like him as a zeroRB candidate should be the lead back in
Tampa cam Akers, I mean completeRoscheck test there. Which version of cam
Akers you get? Are you goingto get the guy who was dominating two
(17:08):
years ago or getting lots of heavytouches when returning from ACL at the end
of the season he came back andtouched the ball like twenty nine times in
his first game and looked really explosive. Or are you going to get the
cam Akers from the start of lastyear who was so inefficient and so bad
that he was almost cut. Imean, I don't remember all the drama,
but there was a whole lot ofdrama where cam Akers didn't even play
(17:29):
football for the Rams for a fewweeks and wasn't injured, he just wasn't
good enough to be on the activeroster, and then at the end of
last year he was suddenly really greatagain. So completely all over the map
with cam Akers. But as aresult, his price is basically priced at
like his floor RB twenty four.Well, I shouldn't say that his floor
(17:52):
is falling out of grace again andjust straight up not being used. So
there's still risk here. But hisADP is seventy five. What is that
a seventh round pick? You're notYou don't have to spend major capital to
get cam Akers again. Another zeroRB candidate that I like in this tier
Joe Mixon. He's only this lowbecause of all the rumblings of whether or
not he's even going to be onthe roster, but he's a player whose
(18:14):
ADP will very likely increase. Andthen Dalvin Cook is a very interesting one
here. Like most people think he'sprobably just out in Minnesota I mean,
unless they have a tier one Twittertroll. The Minnesota Vikings twitter account took
Dalvin Cook out of their banner andreplaced him with Alexander Madison. So I
(18:36):
know people were reading into that alot me included, and then I thought,
you know, that would just besuch an excellent troll job. Long
story short, people are scared todraft Alvin Cook because they don't think he's
going to be in Minnesota. Butguess what he's going to be somewhere.
He's gonna be the starting running backsomewhere. I mean, imagine if he
gets cut. I do think he'llget cut because his salary cap will just
be I think that'll be really hardto trade. But imagine if he gets
(19:00):
cut and he lands with the MiamiDolphins, with the Buffalo Bills, I
mean Cook. The odds of Cookgetting cut and then signing with a bottom
feeder team I think are pretty low, right, like some team that is
like one offensive skill player away fromtaking the leap. That's where Cook will
land. I really think it'll Ihope it's somewhere like Miami. And I
(19:25):
know positional value, oh running backs, running backs don't matter, YadA,
YadA, YadA. I do thinkthat there is value in running backs who
can catch the ball and rush,which Cook fits that bill. So I
think Cook's ADP will rise once hissituation is a little bit more settled,
and I really just don't think hestays in in Minnesota. All right.
(19:48):
The final tier that I have,I mean, obviously there's a lot more
running backs that you can draft,but the final tier that I have to
go over here today, I don'teven know what tier number I'm on,
one, two, three, four, five. This is tier six that
I have. David Montgomery, JamesConner, Alvin Kamara, Jamante Williams,
James Cook, Alexander Madison, BrianRobinson, AJ Dillon, Samagip, Ryan
(20:10):
Khalil Herbert, Jamal Williams. Thisis the group that is sharing the work.
Really, not much more to sayother than that these running backs are
fine. These are good are Theseare good zero RB candidates. There's nothing
wrong with drafting these players, butthey're not exciting for your team. David
Montgomery has Jamir Gibbs to contend with, Alvin Kamara has a suspension, and
(20:33):
Jamal Williams to contend with. JavonteWilliams has samagip Ryan and also healthless she
used to continue with to contend withJames Cook. Pretty interesting player, a
little bit more interesting in full PPRleagues because Damien Harris to contend with and
and Josh Allen running the ball allthe time. Alexander Madison, his situations
a little bit unknown. His ADPhas been absolutely flying up the board for
(20:53):
the last month since the Dolvin Cooktrade rumors have really heated up, or
cut rumors have really heated up.Love drafting Madison. I think he's the
number one zero RB candidate absolutely onthe board in twenty twenty three. Trying
to draft him everywhere I can.Brian Robinson has Antonio Gibson, AJ Dillon
has Aaron Jones p Ryan, Ialready mentioned him. Khalil Herbert has Dante
(21:15):
Foreman to contend with, and JamalWilliams has Alan Kamara. So nothing wrong
with this tier in terms of,you know, nothing wrong in terms of
where they're being drafted. I thinkall of them are in a fair ADP
range. But I think all ofthem are just kind of grouped together for
me limited limited ability unless the playerin front of them or the player that
(21:37):
they're sharing workload with gets hurt.And then obviously there's a whole bunch of
other running backs that are worth drafting, especially in the later rounds. You
have some of the rookie Zach Charbonnet, Antonio Gibson already mentioned him, Damian
Harris, Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco. I do think he'll have some standalone
value. Even with CMC mentioned DanteForeman, I think he's worth drafting as
(21:59):
he he'll Elliott, you'll land ona team. But those are my tears.
Those are the tears. I thinkI went through six of them.
Those are the top players. Ithink after you get through those players,
you're really looking for some players whoneed a few things to break right to
be regular contributors to your bestball team. All right, people that will do
(22:19):
it. For this episode of theFtM Best Padcast, thanks so much for
tuning in, and we'll catch younext time.
What's up, my people? Welcometo episode twelve of the FTN Bestball Cast,
presented by the FtM Podcast Network.As always, I am your host,
Tyler Lochner. You can find meon Twitter at Lochner NFL. We're
continuing our run through tiers today.We're looking at RB tiers specifically through the
(00:28):
lens of Underdog Fantasy. I knowDraftKings has their Best Ball drafts in full
swing as well. To be honestwith you, the rankings are pretty similar
for Underdog and for DraftKings. Iknow DraftKings has the full PPR format,
but not too much change there.I mean you bump up players like like
like McCaffrey or Austin Eckler, vermondreStevenson, those guys get bumped up a
(00:52):
little bit, but overall, likethe RB tiers, RB rings are not
dissimilar between half and full PPR.Pretty straight forward concept here. I will
be having an article published as wellon the most likely running backs to finish
as the RB overall one. Ido that article in tier groupings as well,
but it's a little bit different ofa topic right. This podcast is
(01:14):
about tiers from a ranking and froma drafting perspective. That article is really
about upside like tiers on who hasthe best chance to finish as the overall
RB one. Like. For example, I have Nick Chubb in the third
tier. Given a little bit ofa spoiler away for later on in this
podcast, I have Nick Chubb inthe third tier here. He's probably not
(01:37):
going to be in the third tierfor the likelihood of finishing as the overall
RB one. I think he'll bea little bit lower. So I feel
like Chub's a good example, right, very solid player, upside of finishing
his overall RB one's not quite there. So two different tiers. This podcast
is drafting tiers. The article isbasically upside tiers. Check that out.
(01:57):
I'll provide a link in the podcastdescription. All right, we're gonna start
things off with the number one tier. If you listen to the Quarterback article
or the Quarterback podcast on this Itried. I tried to get some cute
names. It didn't work. Itried to do cute names for the tiers.
Did not work. This timers cannado Tier one S tier, Christian
(02:21):
McCaffrey, Austin Eckler, Bijean Robinson. I have them in that order.
It's not the order they're being drafted. McCaffrey is ADP is right around three
or four, and drafts usually goJustin Jefferson, Jamar Chas and then Christian
McCaffrey. Bijean Robinson's ADP is rightat seven, Austin Eckler's ADP is between
eleven and twelve. I actually haveEckler ranked ahead of Bijean. I'm doing,
(02:45):
you know, several drafts, andso I do I want some Bijean
Robinson exposure this year. So Iam drafting Bijean ahead of Austin Eckler in
some drafts. But if look,if you put me in like a high
entry contest, high entry free contest, or if you're just doing one draft
or two drafts, you don't necessarilyhave to play the numbers, like,
(03:06):
just take the player that you wantto take. So if you're sitting there,
if you have Austin Eckler ranked aheadof Bijean Robinson, you're on the
board at seven, you don't haveto take beijon just because everyone else is
taking him ahead. Right. Sothat's kind of how I would operate if
I was just doing one draft.In any event, I have all three
of these players in the same tier. McCaffrey I have ranked one on one
(03:28):
overall. I don't really have aproblem with people taking Justin Jefferson ahead of
him. Jamar Chase is fine,I guess, but really I would the
only player I would really consider wouldbe Justin Jefferson. But McCaffrey's might one
oh one again he was last year. Just the consistency, the upside that
usage over one hundred yards or atouchdown and basically every single game last year,
(03:50):
switch teams midway through the year.His second week with the forty nine
ers, he scored over forty fantasypoints. Had one hundred and seven targets
last year, seven hundred thirty seven, seven hundred and thirty seven receiving yards,
one thousand, one hundred and thirtynine rushing yards. So he's going
to be a player who will rackup between seventeen hundred and two thousand total
(04:12):
yards for you. We'll probably catchbetween eighty and one hundred balls, one
hundred probably on the higher end.And he scored thirteen touchdowns last year.
And I know Elijah Mitchell was beingused kind of close to the goal line
in some games, and there waskind of a not great split for Christian
McCaffrey. But really all that meansis McCaffrey is no longer Ladanian Tomlinson.
(04:33):
He's no longer just like the superabundantly obvious one on one in fantasy football.
I still think he's the one onone, But Ladanian Tomlinson was the
most legendary fantasy football player we've seenin the last twenty five years. McCaffrey
was the closest we've come to that. Maybe he's not at that level anymore,
but he's still gonna get He's stillgonna get twenty touches a game,
which is plenty for a player.When six of those touches or five of
(04:55):
those touches every game, we're gonnabe receptions. But Eckler was the one
last year, and I do haveBejean in this Tier one. I just
think it's a really great landing spot. The reason I have Ekeler ahead of
him is because Cordell Patterson's still there, so I and Tyler aug year.
I just don't think he's going tobecome completely irrelevant. I'm not saying Bijean
is necessarily threatened by those players.Look, I do still have him in
(05:18):
the Tier one, right, Butthere's that's the reason I don't have Bijean
ranked as like RB one, whichI as some people do. And Eckler.
Love Eckler one hundred and seven receptionslast year. He's he's Christian McCaffrey
but just doesn't run the ball quiteas much. But honestly he scores more
touchdowns. He had eighteen touchdowns lastyear. So absolutely love Eckler. Been
(05:40):
my boy for almost a decade now, So love that, all right.
The next tier is I have JonathanTaylor and I have Sequon Barkley. Their
ADP is early second round. Taylor'sthirteen right now so often goes on the
turn. Barkley is sixteen to seventeen. These players are very easily you could
(06:02):
put them in Tier one, andI wouldn't argue. Jonathan Taylor is just
one year removed from being the fromthe one oh one pretty much consensus from
everybody except for me. He hadeight hundred and sixty one rushing yards last
year, but it was also aninjury played year. He only scored four
total touchdowns last year. He hadeighteen the year before. He's going to
be somewhere between those two numbers thisyear, and from a receiving perspective,
(06:26):
he was catching the ball a littlebit more at least early on in the
year last year. So I likethe upside there and then Barkley. Things
are looking better for the Giants offense. Brian Dable made a big difference.
Daniel Jones I talked about on thelast podcast. Don't love him, but
he's capable of having this team scorepoints, So I'll say that, and
I think that very much helps Barkley. Barkley had over thirteen hundred rushing yards
(06:47):
last year, really really productive seasonon the ground. Would have liked to
see more from him through the air. He didn't catch a single touchdown pass
last year. Fifty seven receptions,three hundred and thirty eight receiving yards.
We know is capable of a lotmore than that. I hope we see
it this year. It's truly theonly thing keeping him from Tier one though.
All right, the next tier,you know one of the players on
(07:10):
there, I already spoiled it isNick Chubb. The next year has six
running backs in it, so we'vegone through five. So this is basically
the rest of the fantasy RB Ones, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Josh
Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Bruce Hall, and Romandre Stevenson. Now, I
think within this tier there are twovery distinct groups. I think Nick Chubb,
(07:31):
Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs arekind of in their own group.
These are running backs who are notgoing to catch the ball a ton,
and then Tony Pollard, Bruce Hall, and Romandre Stevenson are running backs who
very well could catch the ball aton. Now, Josh Jacobs is kind
of borderline between those two groups.You know, Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry
are very similar to each other inthe fact that they are just absolute bruisers
(07:54):
on the ground. Chubb last yearhad three hundred and two rushing attempts for
over fifteen hundred yards and twelve touchdowns. Henry had three hundred and fifty technically
three hundred and forty nine rushing attempts, also had fifteen one hundred yards and
scored thirteen touchdowns. So from arushing perspective, Henry and Chubb were basically
identical, and then from a receivingperspective, they were basically identical as well.
(08:16):
Chubb had thirty seven targets, DerrickHenry had forty one. Derrick Henry
did a lot more with those targets. He had four hundred receiving yards.
Chubb only had two hundred and thirtynine between the two of them combined,
though they only had one receiving touchdownthat was Nick Chubb. So those players
are going to get it done onthe ground. I think Henry probably has
one more year of doing it.Chubb might have a couple more solidly Tier
(08:39):
three players. Derrick Henry's going atthe early third round, Nick Chubb is
going at the late second round withan ADP overall of twenty one, and
then Josh Jak Gibs is kind ofin between those two groups. He had
three hundred and forty rushing attempts lastyear, which is just the monstrously huge
number one, six hundred and fiftythree yards, twelve rushing touchdowns. So
on the ground he was basically NickChubb and Derrick Henry. In fact,
(09:01):
he was a little bit better thanthen. He had about one hundred more
total rushing yards, and then healso caught the ball more. He had
sixty five targets, so like twentytwenty five more targets than those two players.
Fifty three receptions four hundred receiving yards, but he also did not score
any receiving touchdowns. You know,when we're talking about like Eckler or McCaffrey,
(09:22):
b Jean Robinson probably expecting somewhere betweenlike four and six receiving touchdowns from
that group, and I would expectSaquon Barkley to be there this year.
I really don't know how Barkley didn'tscore any receiving touchdowns last year. Chub,
Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs between zeroand two just not going to get
receiving touchdowns from them. So they'rein that kind of third tier as a
(09:46):
group amongst themselves. And then TonyPollard, Bruce Hall and ramondre Stevenson,
they are in a group. They'rein that tier three I think overall for
rankings, but they catch the balla lot more so honestly, if i'm
and these players are actually a littlebit cheaper too. So Tony Pollard is
not his ADP is twenty two,but Brees Hall his ADP is twenty eight.
(10:09):
He's going behind Chub, Henry andJacobs, and then ramondre Stevenson is
going the latest out of all ofthese players, and to be honest with
you, Stevenson might be my favoriteof the bunch. With Damian Harris no
longer in New England, Stevenson isjust going to catch. Like the advanced
metrics, Stevenson absolutely pops from areceiving perspective, like Austin Ekeler level of
good, Christian McCaffrey level of goodas a receiver. Really like Stevenson at
(10:33):
his current ADP, which is themiddle of the middle of the third round.
All right, our Tier four group. I have five running backs in
this tier and this is kind ofthe tier that I'm not like one hundred
percent sure what to do with.I really like drafting a couple of these
players. I really don't like draftingsome of the other ones. And from
an ADP perspective, it spans acrosstwo rounds. This is I think you
(10:54):
hear the term RB dead zone.I think this is where in twenty twenty
three drafts, this is where ittransition into the RB dead zone. We
have Travis Etn Naja Harris, KennethWalker, Jamir Gibbs, and Aaron Jones
in this group. So et NI could have put him in the Tier
three. I'm a little concerned abouthis role. He got competition through the
(11:15):
draft. He wasn't used as heavilyas a rusher as we would have liked
to see. Even last year,he had two hundred and twenty rushing attempts,
which is fine, but I meanhe was super good with them.
He had one one hundred and twentyfive rushing yards. He averaged five point
one yards per carry last year.He also wasn't used as much through the
air, though we would have likedto see, only thirty five receptions three
(11:37):
hundred and fourteen receiving yards, zerotouchdowns through the air. Et n is
I have him ranked as RB twelve, and that's where he's being drafted as
well. I think it's fine.He's borderline Tier three Tier four for me.
I probably Etn's kind of like inhis own tier. I just he's
like Tier three point five. Therest of these players are very solidly Tier
(11:58):
four for me. Naja Harris hasranked in the bottom ten in Fantasy points
over expectation or in his case,Fantasy points under expectation. Just a volume
king lining up to be a volumeking again in twenty twenty three. But
I'm not convinced that he's going toget as much volume this year. If
you're really inefficient with your touches inthe NFL, you're againnas start to be
(12:20):
replaced. We saw it last yearstart to happen over the final month of
the year with Jaylen Warren. NajaHarris's stranglehold as the primary person running out
of the backfield for the Pittsburgh Steelersis coming to an end. I think
I think we're gonna see a littlebit more of a split backfield there.
Don't love drafting Etn at his currentADP of thirty eight point five. I
think that needs to be about tenpicks later. I think he needs to
(12:41):
be going where where Kenneth Walker iscurrently going, which is ADP of forty
seven. Walker is in a similarsituation to Travis et and I think that's
why I put both of these runningbacks in this year. It got competition
through the draft that like, wejust don't we don't want to see that
Walker. Before this, he's RBfifteen right now. He was being drafted
(13:03):
as like the RB six or sevenor eight. So he saw his draft
stock really plummet, and for goodreason, Pete Carroll comes out. He's
like, I just wanted to draftrunning backs. I want players who can
run the ball. They also draftedJackson's Nijigba, so kind of kind of
like saying one thing and doing another. But I mean, kudos to the
(13:24):
Seattle Seahawks for taking the players thatthey like. I think I really doubted
them last year when they got ridof Russell Wilson. They still made the
playoffs. They even gave the fortyNiners are running for their money. Kenneth
Walker was a part of that,but he's not the only part of that.
This team really does have some goodplayers. Tyler Lockett, of course,
is still their DK, Metcalf isstill there. Kenneth Walker will be
in the picture. I think he'sa good RB two. I think his
(13:45):
ADP is fair, but certainly he'sa high risk hiro word player. Actually,
I wouldn't even call it high risk. He's not high risk. He's
going to produce for you, andthe upside is really there. I think
I'm just comparing it too much tohis pre draft valuation, where he was
going as like the RB six orseven in some drafts. Jamir Gibbs.
Right now, his ADP is thirtynine. Obviously drafted very high by the
(14:09):
Detroit Lions, and then they tradedaway DeAndre Swift. Jamal Williams is no
longer there, but they do stillhave David Montgomery. So the big question
is how much will Gibbs be used. I think his price right now is
a little too expensive ADP of thirtynine. I think he should probably be
again eight nine picks later mid forties, mid to late forties in terms of
(14:31):
ADP. But again, if youwant to if you're doing multiple drafts and
you want exposure to a numerous ofthese players, sometimes you're going to have
to spend a little bit more thanmaybe exactly where you have them ranked.
And that's that's a personal preference thing, right If you want to be hard
and fast with your ranks and youdon't want to have draft a player ahead
of where you have them ranked,then you just have to accept the fact
(14:52):
that some players Jamire Gibbs would beone of them for me, some players
you just might not end up rosterbecause the fact of the matter is,
I personally might have him valued alittle bit lower than where his ADP currently
is, but his ADP is themarket set value. So is that a
price that I'm willing to pay?In a single draft, No, in
(15:15):
many drafts. Yeah, I'll doit a couple times. Aaron Jones is
the next player in this tier.Just I think he has a few things
working against him. Number one firstand foremost is he has major competition from
aj Dillon. Aaron Jones only hadtwo rushing touchdowns last year. It was
still hyper efficient with touching the ballfive point three yards per carry, scored
(15:37):
five rushing scored, five receiving touchdowns. But with Aaron Rodgers no longer they
are Aaron Rodgers loved Aaron Jones.I mean you remember a few years ago
the hashtag free Aaron Jones was trendingon Twitter, and it was because Aaron
Rodgers was like we I forget theexact quote, but it was something along
the lines that we really need tofind a way to get the ball into
(15:58):
Aaron Jones's hands more. When youhave one of the greatest quarterbacks of all
time who wants to get you theball, you're probably gonna get the ball.
Jordan Love could be great, he'snot going to be Aaron Rodgers.
So I am a little nervous aboutAaron Jones there. I think he's a
fine RB two for Fantasy football,but don't love it. And honestly,
the primary reason I don't love itis because Aaron Rodgers isn't there anymore.
(16:21):
It's just I think he was hisguy. Okay, Tier five this is
I think really the RB dead zone. There's a couple of players in here
who really have big upside. Butif the last tier was the transition into
the RBY dead zone, I thinkthis is where it really is. This
tier is Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook, JK Dobbins, Damian Pierce, Joe
(16:44):
Mixon, DeAndre Swift, Isaiah Pacheco, Cam Akers, and Rashad White.
Now I do think there's some goodvalues in this tier. Rashad White,
I really like him as a zeroRB candidate should be the lead back in
Tampa cam Akers, I mean completeRoscheck test there. Which version of cam
Akers you get? Are you goingto get the guy who was dominating two
(17:08):
years ago or getting lots of heavytouches when returning from ACL at the end
of the season he came back andtouched the ball like twenty nine times in
his first game and looked really explosive. Or are you going to get the
cam Akers from the start of lastyear who was so inefficient and so bad
that he was almost cut. Imean, I don't remember all the drama,
but there was a whole lot ofdrama where cam Akers didn't even play
(17:29):
football for the Rams for a fewweeks and wasn't injured, he just wasn't
good enough to be on the activeroster, and then at the end of
last year he was suddenly really greatagain. So completely all over the map
with cam Akers. But as aresult, his price is basically priced at
like his floor RB twenty four.Well, I shouldn't say that his floor
(17:52):
is falling out of grace again andjust straight up not being used. So
there's still risk here. But hisADP is seventy five. What is that
a seventh round pick? You're notYou don't have to spend major capital to
get cam Akers again. Another zeroRB candidate that I like in this tier
Joe Mixon. He's only this lowbecause of all the rumblings of whether or
not he's even going to be onthe roster, but he's a player whose
(18:14):
ADP will very likely increase. Andthen Dalvin Cook is a very interesting one
here. Like most people think he'sprobably just out in Minnesota I mean,
unless they have a tier one Twittertroll. The Minnesota Vikings twitter account took
Dalvin Cook out of their banner andreplaced him with Alexander Madison. So I
(18:36):
know people were reading into that alot me included, and then I thought,
you know, that would just besuch an excellent troll job. Long
story short, people are scared todraft Alvin Cook because they don't think he's
going to be in Minnesota. Butguess what he's going to be somewhere.
He's gonna be the starting running backsomewhere. I mean, imagine if he
gets cut. I do think he'llget cut because his salary cap will just
be I think that'll be really hardto trade. But imagine if he gets
(19:00):
cut and he lands with the MiamiDolphins, with the Buffalo Bills, I
mean Cook. The odds of Cookgetting cut and then signing with a bottom
feeder team I think are pretty low, right, like some team that is
like one offensive skill player away fromtaking the leap. That's where Cook will
land. I really think it'll Ihope it's somewhere like Miami. And I
(19:25):
know positional value, oh running backs, running backs don't matter, YadA,
YadA, YadA. I do thinkthat there is value in running backs who
can catch the ball and rush,which Cook fits that bill. So I
think Cook's ADP will rise once hissituation is a little bit more settled,
and I really just don't think hestays in in Minnesota. All right.
(19:48):
The final tier that I have,I mean, obviously there's a lot more
running backs that you can draft,but the final tier that I have to
go over here today, I don'teven know what tier number I'm on,
one, two, three, four, five. This is tier six that
I have. David Montgomery, JamesConner, Alvin Kamara, Jamante Williams,
James Cook, Alexander Madison, BrianRobinson, AJ Dillon, Samagip, Ryan
(20:10):
Khalil Herbert, Jamal Williams. Thisis the group that is sharing the work.
Really, not much more to sayother than that these running backs are
fine. These are good are Theseare good zero RB candidates. There's nothing
wrong with drafting these players, butthey're not exciting for your team. David
Montgomery has Jamir Gibbs to contend with, Alvin Kamara has a suspension, and
(20:33):
Jamal Williams to contend with. JavonteWilliams has samagip Ryan and also healthless she
used to continue with to contend withJames Cook. Pretty interesting player, a
little bit more interesting in full PPRleagues because Damien Harris to contend with and
and Josh Allen running the ball allthe time. Alexander Madison, his situations
a little bit unknown. His ADPhas been absolutely flying up the board for
(20:53):
the last month since the Dolvin Cooktrade rumors have really heated up, or
cut rumors have really heated up.Love drafting Madison. I think he's the
number one zero RB candidate absolutely onthe board in twenty twenty three. Trying
to draft him everywhere I can.Brian Robinson has Antonio Gibson, AJ Dillon
has Aaron Jones p Ryan, Ialready mentioned him. Khalil Herbert has Dante
(21:15):
Foreman to contend with, and JamalWilliams has Alan Kamara. So nothing wrong
with this tier in terms of,you know, nothing wrong in terms of
where they're being drafted. I thinkall of them are in a fair ADP
range. But I think all ofthem are just kind of grouped together for
me limited limited ability unless the playerin front of them or the player that
(21:37):
they're sharing workload with gets hurt.And then obviously there's a whole bunch of
other running backs that are worth drafting, especially in the later rounds. You
have some of the rookie Zach Charbonnet, Antonio Gibson already mentioned him, Damian
Harris, Elijah Mitchell in San Francisco. I do think he'll have some standalone
value. Even with CMC mentioned DanteForeman, I think he's worth drafting as
(21:59):
he he'll Elliott, you'll land ona team. But those are my tears.
Those are the tears. I thinkI went through six of them.
Those are the top players. Ithink after you get through those players,
you're really looking for some players whoneed a few things to break right to
be regular contributors to your bestball team. All right, people that will do
(22:19):
it. For this episode of theFtM Best Padcast, thanks so much for
tuning in, and we'll catch younext time.
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