June 1, 2023 • 21 mins
Tyler Loechner of FTNFantasy.com runs through his initial set of WR tiers for the 2023 Underdog Fantasy best ball season. Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are Tier 1 wideouts - but where does Cooper Kupp land? And how about WR2s like DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and more.
Also check out Tyler's piece on the WRs most likely to finish as the No. 1 overall WR in 2023.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:05):
What's going on, my people?It is episode thirteen of the FTN Bestball
Cast, presented by the FtM PodcastNetwork. As always, I am your
host, Tyler Lochner. You canfind me on Twitter at Lochner NFL.
You can also find all my workon FTN Fantasy dot Com. We're continuing
(00:25):
our run through the best ball tiers, specifically talking about underdog. But if
you play DraftKings or or another bestball platform, these tiers are We're going
to be pretty dang similar, butwe're going We've done We've done quarterbacks,
we've done running backs. Today weare doing wide receiver tiers. You can
go through the rankings. I saythis over and over again. You can
debate all you want as to whetheror not this player should be, you
(00:48):
know, thirteenth among wide receivers orfourteenth among wide receivers. At the end
of the day, tiers are whereit's at. The difference between you know,
being ranked thirteen, fourteenth, fifteenthis probably very negligible, right Like,
it can go one way or theother. So that's really where tiers
come into play. You draft aplayer within a certain tier, you're going
(01:10):
to be pretty happy. Honestly,not that much more presentation needed for this.
I think we can just jump rightinto it with the Tier one Fantasy
Football wide receivers. Really no questionas to who's going to be at the
top of the tier here. It'sJustin Jefferson, It's Jamar Chase, and
then yes, I have Cooper Cupin this tier as well. Cup is
sliding down draft boards, I thinka little bit, but I think he's
(01:34):
very firmly in this Tier one ofwide receivers, right there with Jefferson,
right there with Chase Jefferson. Imean, what's not What is there that
you could say against him? Iguess you could say that he had a
complete dund in Week seventeen, Imean absolutely brutal. I think he had
seventeen total yards. Championship Week neededto deliver didn't happen. But guess what,
(01:55):
you didn't make it to Week seventeenwithout Justin Jefferson. So it happens,
right, there's variants players, evenin this Tier one group, we're
gonna have low weeks. Doesn't affectJefferson at all. A good one point
on one pick. Personally, I'mtaking Christian McCaffrey, but there's nothing wrong
with taking Justin Jefferson one O one, one hundred and eighty four targets last
year. I mean that is reallywhere it's at. One hundred and twenty
eight receptions over eighteen hundred yards.If you had a really monstrous week seventeen
(02:21):
Week eighteen game, he could havetopped two hundred yards. Only eight touchdowns.
I say only eight because compared tocompared to the other wide receivers in
this tier one, he doesn't scorequite as many touchdowns, but he does
make up for it in the receptionsand the yardage. I mean, he's
great, right, There's there's nothingnegative you can say about Justin Jefferson.
He averaged over twenty one This isfull PPR points, so not specifically for
(02:46):
underdog, but he averaged over twentyone full PPR points per game last year.
Just a total monster to our Chasemissed five games last year, but
if you actually extrapolate out to thefull seventeen game pace, he was very,
very similar to Justin Jefferson in receptions. His extrapolated pace was one hundred
(03:09):
and twenty two receptions. Jefferson wasat one hundred and twenty eight. Chase
topped over Excuse me, Chase toppeda thousand yards despite missing those five games,
and he scored nine touchdowns, sohe actually scored more touchdowns than Jefferson
in fewer games played. And ofcourse Chase had the thirteen touchdowns as a
rookie. It's not like it's notcompletely out of the question that for Chase
(03:31):
to score, you know, twentytouchdowns. I'm not saying that's that's going
to happen, but it's absolutely possible. I think if there's a player that
can very reasonably break Randy Moss's receivingtouchdown record, it's Jamar Chase. So
not quite a prediction, but absolutelywithin the realm of possibility. And think
(03:53):
Cooper Cup, I think he's firmlyin this tier. I mean last year,
through the first eight weeks before hegot injured, he was the number
one wide receiver. So dating backto the start of the twenty twenty one
season when healthy, Cooper Cup hasbeen pretty pretty handily the number one Fantasy
football wide receiver. Even last yearhe averaged you know, he averaged more
(04:14):
fantasy points per game than Chasing Jefferson. And it's just the injury that that
derailed him and the Rams offense.You know, they went all in,
they won the Super Bowl, andnow everything's falling apart. But they do
still have they do still have Cup, their stafford still there. Cup's going
to be a target machine once again. I mean he had ninety eight targets
(04:35):
in half the games. He wason pace for maybe for maybe two hundred
targets, maybe one hundred and fiftyreceptions. Like things were looking great for
Cooper Cup. So very firmly inTier one. Still, I think all
right. In Tier two, Ionly have two players are sorry, excuse
me, I only have three playersin this tier. So after Jefferson chasing
(04:57):
Cup. In Tier one, Ihave Tyreek Kill, I have Davante Adams,
and I have Steff Diggs. NowHill and Adams, excuse me.
Adams and Diggs I think are ina similar boat. They're both a little
bit on the older side. Adamsthis is his ear. He'll he'll be
thirty one at the end of theyear. Diggs will turn thirty. Now
that's not ancient. And these guysare still Tier two. But I do
(05:21):
think that we've maybe seen the peakfrom Stefan Diggs's He don't get me wrong,
he has been absolutely incredible with JoshAllen the last three years. But
I don't think he's going to takeanother step forward to compete with with with
Jefferson and Chase. And I saythat obviously Diggs has been having great,
(05:42):
great seasons with Josh Allen. Lastyear he had one hundred and fifty three
targets, one hundred and eight receptions, fourteen hundred yards, eleven touchdowns,
just great all around, thirty fourpercent air yard share, twenty seven percent
team target share. I do thinkthose numbers are going to be are going
to be very similar again in twentytwenty three. But we're talking about you
know, justin Jefferson Cup, JamarChase, they might have two hundred targets.
(06:05):
You know, they might push forone hundred and thirty to one hundred
and fifty receptions, eighteen hundred receivingyards. I just don't think that's in
Diggs's range of outcomes. Right now. We've seen what his role is in
the Bill's offense. It's massively valuable. That's the reason Diggs I have in
this tier two group rather than aTier one group. And I think Adams
is in a similar boat. Wesaw last year was a kind of a
(06:30):
leap of faith year for fantasy playersto take Adams right. Like, we
knew he was a great player,but how was he going to be without
Aaron Rodgers. He showed that heis still great. He had one hundred
receptions over fifteen hundred yards, stilla touchdown monster, scored fourteen touchdowns,
topped over twenty one hundred air yards, had his highest yards per reception dating
(06:50):
back to his third year in theleague, was his previous highest. So
still a great player. I mentionedhis age earlier. Still a great player,
but I mentioned his age because Idon't think he's going to take another
leap forward, especially because he's nowgetting another quarterback down grade, you know,
going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, not to Jimmy Garoppolo. Personally,
I think Karen Garoppolo are basically thesame player. But you could also
(07:14):
argue that this is the third consecutiveyear of a quarterback down grade for Adams.
So I think he's still a greatplayer. I think he's still worth
a late first you know, earlysecond round pick somewhere around that turn,
just not in the tier one withthe Jeffersons and the Chases and then Tyreek
Hills a really hard one. Ireally think he's a wild card. Hill
absolutely can lead the league in touchdowns, absolutely can lead the league in yards.
(07:38):
I think he could lead the leaguein receptions. So he's very borderline
Tier one for me. The onlyreason I don't have him there is because
I think Jalen Waddle is a littlebit more involved in Miami's offense this year.
In this being his third year,Tyree Hill is still just an absolutely
monstrous player. I kind of havea Hill in the Tier one point five
(07:59):
category. I mean, he had, except for the touchdowns, he had
his best year in the league,and that was after leaving Patrick Mahomes.
It's just crazy to me that Mahomesand Hill both were so successful without each
other last year. So no reasonto have Hill anywhere other than Tier two,
and I honestly I wouldn't even argueif you had him in Tier one
(08:20):
for best ball. For best ball, I really like drafting Tyree Hill early.
I mean obviously early, everyone's draftingearly. I really like drafting Tyree
Kill in the first ground, especiallybecause you can stack him pretty well with
other Dolphins players. All Right,the Tier three group, my Tier three
group is really small, I haveSeede Leam and AJ Brown here. I
(08:45):
think these guys are above the Tierfour group that I'm about to mention,
but a step below Digs and Adams. Now, AJ Brown really the only
concern with him concerns probably not theright word, but the only problem is
that he's on a run first offense. The Eagles passed the ball only fifty
(09:05):
percent of the time last year.It was bottom three in the league in
pass rate, and Brown's reception totalstook a hit as a result. He
only had eighty eight receptions. Hedid still have fifteen hundred yards. He
still score a lot of in touchdowns. He did still get over forty percent
of the team's air yards. Likejust from an advanced metric standpoint, a
J. Brown absolutely dominates, buthe's not getting the Justin Jefferson level of
(09:30):
targets. So that and really it'sjust that volume concern that prevents Brown,
I think from being in Tier twoeven tier one. I do think Brown
has a shot though, at beingat being the top overall fantasy wide receiver
if the Eagles decide to pass theball more, but it's really hard to
see them doing that, just withJalen hurts and hurts a skill set.
(09:52):
I mean, there's really no reasonnot to take advantage of that skill set
because it's so unique. And thenI have Ceedee Lamb here. I think
Lamb Lamb sees more volume. ButI was concerned with Dallas's reduction in passing
last year. They were a veryfast paced offense and then they slowed down
last year and they ran the balla lot more. Now, the one
(10:15):
thing that that Ceedee Lamb does havegoing for him is that the post Ezekiel
Elliott world of the Dallas Cowboys mightlook different, and we could see Lamb
go from one hundred and fifty sixtargets which he had last year. I
don't think it's outside of the realmof possibility to see him go up to
like one hundred and eighty targets.And you know he's a great player obviously.
(10:35):
So those two players are very firmlyin Tier three for me above this
other group. Now, this othergroup is pretty large. This is my
Tier four and starts with Garrett Wilson. It's Garrett Wilson, Amanra st Brown,
Jalen Waddle. That's kind of likemy Tier three point five, I'll
say, and then the rest ofthe tier is Crystal lave T Higgins,
(10:58):
Davante Smith, DK Metcal, MarieCooper, DeAndre Hopkins, and Deebo Samuel.
Now, in terms of ADP,I just gave a huge range of
players starting with Garrett Wilson being draftedaround fourteenth or fifteenth and then all the
way down to Marie Cooper who's beingdrafted at the end of the third round.
(11:20):
So basically, I'm saying every widereceiver being drafted in around two and
three is pretty similar in my eyes, at at least in equal tiers.
Now, yes, I do haveWilson and a Monra st Brown and Jalen
Waddle ranked ahead of these other players. This is kind of the difference between
tiers and rankings, right, ButI am happy to get one of these
players on my team. I'm happyif any of these players is my number
(11:43):
one wide receiver. Like if Igo with a running back in the first
round, maybe even the first tworounds. You could go running back and
you have to you might have todraft a quarterback earlier this year, Like
if you draft Steph Diggs and thenJosh Allen, I'm happy to get one
of these wide receivers in this tieras my number one wide receiver. I'm
not going to go through every singleone of these players, but Garrett Wilson
(12:05):
in particular, is I think hasthe best chance of making a big leap
to that top tier playing with AaronRodgers on an offense that really should funnel
targets his way. A monro SatBrown just doesn't see enough depth on his
targets. I mean, his averagedepth of target is about four to five
to six yards lower than the otherfantasy wide receiver ones. So despite you
(12:30):
know, racking up the points maybeundraftkings or its full full point PPR,
he's not going to get as asmany yardage as these other players already mentioned.
Waddle, who I really like.I think he's very stackable with Tyree
Hill, so I really like thatdolphin stack. I mean, Chrystal Lava
really was impressive as a rookie lastyear, being drafted at the end of
(12:56):
the second round, kind of atthat two three turn. This year,
I have him in that Tier fourgroup as well. And then I think
te Higgins DeVante Smith are in verysimilar boats. Right they're technically the number
two wide receivers on their team.Te Higgins has Chase obviously DeVante Smith has
a J. Brown. But bothof these players are good enough to be
(13:18):
a fantasy wide receiver one. Infact, they both were fantasy wide receiver
ones last year. Both of themare capable of being a number one wide
receiver on an NFL team. Soif anything were to happen or Chase,
if anything were to happen to Brown, I think both Higgins and Smith will
they might not go to media artheights. They might not become the number
one overall fantasy football player because theyalready do see obviously you know, great
(13:41):
volume, but they do have thatadded benefit of there is still room for
them to grow, right Like,if something were to happen to Chase,
Higgins becomes a more important part ofthat offense. Ditto with a J.
Brown. So I like that kindof ace up the sleeve for those players.
It's like, it's like that's kindof like the premise of the zero
(14:01):
RB strategy, right, Like youtake some players who you take some running
backs who maybe need an injury tohappen in front of them, or maybe
need to earn more playing time.These are fantasy wide receiver ones that have
room to grow that's hard to find. You find it with both Higgins and
Smith. I had Deebo Samuel inthis group. Some people might think that's
(14:26):
not right. I did write anarticle on the wide receivers most likely to
finish number one overall among all widereceivers, and I actually had Debo in
the tier three group. And Ithink that's just because his skill set is
so unique. I mean, thisguy is, I am my opinion,
(14:46):
other than Tyreek Hill, I thinkDeebo Samuel is the second best quote unquote
weapon in the NFL. Just hisability to score from anywhere on the field,
be used out of the backfield,turn the slants into seventy five yard
touched ounce. Great player. Willhe see enough volume? I don't know.
I don't. I don't think so. That's why he's pretty firmly in
(15:07):
the Tier four for me. Butin terms of what is his ceiling,
what is that upside? What ifsomething happens to George Kittle or Brandon Ayuk,
I guess, you know, there'sstill a question of who's going to
be the forty nine ers quarterback.But I guess kind of like Tee Higgins
and DeVante Smith, Samuel has somebuilt in upside as well. And the
good thing is we've seen it withhim. We've seen him take just as
(15:31):
you know, a very small numberof receptions compared to some of these other
players and turn it into just amonstrous fantasy season like we saw back in
twenty twenty one. So I do, like Deebo in Best Ball, he
will have those pop off weeks.All right. The next tier Tier five.
Actually a quick note on DeAndre Hopkins. It really feels like the Chiefs
are just the team that makes themost sense for him to land with.
(15:54):
I mean, he's a free agent, he's free to go sign where he
wants. He's later on in hiscareer. He wants to play with a
quarterback that gets it. He wantsto win. He's not going to go
join some random team just to bea high paid wide receiver. Like I
just don't think that's going to happen. I think wherever he lands, it's
going to be a good fantasy situation. So his ADP is gonna rise as
(16:18):
it should so very firmly in thetier four for me, all right.
The Tier five group, it's prettybig group here as well. DJ Moore,
Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams, JerryJudy, Keenan Allen, Christian Watson,
Drake London, Terry McLaurin, andChristian Kirk. This is the tier
of upside. I guess I wouldsay Christian Watson, Drake London have big
(16:44):
upside, Mike Williams has big upside. DJ Moore, well, I suppose
DJ Moore is pretty interesting, right, Like the way I take it,
it's it's really what do you thinkof Justin Fields? I think Justin Fields
has a legitimate shot of being theNFL MVP this year. I really do.
I think if he takes a stepforward, we might see like a
Jalen Hurts type season from Fields thisyear. And if that happens, DJ
(17:07):
Moore is going to be a greatfantasy player. We've seen DJ Moore be
a great fantasy player, be avery consistent fantasy player. I mean,
the joke was always that Moore wasjust a lock for twelve hundred yards and
four touchdowns. That's his floor.Really, I think, do we see
the Chicago Bears pass more? Dowe see fields run a little less?
I don't think we see fields runless. I'm very very bullish on the
(17:29):
Bears offense, very very bullish onJustin Fields, so I'm bullish on DJ
Moore. Calvin Ridley a bit ofa Rorschach test, like what will he
bring for your team? We knowhe's a good player. He produced a
top five Fantasy season the last timehe was a number one wide receiver on
a team. But is he thenumber one wide receiver? I mentioned Christian
(17:51):
kirk a little bit later in thisgroup because he showed he could be a
number one wide receiver for Jacksonville lastyear, So lots of mouth Stefida and
Jacksonville. I have both of thosewide receivers in this tier. Don't forget.
I mean Trevor Lawrence was heralded asthe next best thing since Andrew Luck
and last year he took a bigleap forward. I definitely think it's within
the realm of possibility that he supports. Both Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirki's top
(18:15):
twenty Fantasy wide receivers this year,so I have them both in this tier.
Drake London Christian Watson I mentioned themearlier. Young players don't have the
greatest quarterback situations right now, butDrake London did produce at a much better
clip last year with Desmond when Ritterwas on the field versus when Marcus Mariota
was on the field. So withRitter being the full time quarterback in twenty
(18:37):
twenty three, I think we canlook for a leap forward for Drake London.
Keenan Allen, I think, isthe one player I mentioned in this
tier that I'm just not quite assure about. He's having a hard time
staying on the field, and Iam truly concerned that that could happening in
twenty twenty three. So I dohave Alan ranked in tier. I do
(19:00):
have him ranked in this range.It's kind of like a default thing that's
just where the projections spit him out. But I'm not feeling the Keenan Allen
vibe personally leading into twenty twenty three. The next tier. This is the
last year I'm gonna I'm gonna stopafter this tier. This is Michael Pittman,
Tyler Lockett, Brandon I, Yuke, Mike Evans, Deante Johnson,
(19:21):
Jackson Smith, Najigba, Markus Brown. Actually I made a mistake here.
Markis Brown is a tier up.I had these notes tier from from before
the DeAndre Hopkins news. Mark's Browndefinitely gets a bump up in tier.
Trail On Burkes and George Pitkins arealso in this tier, and then Kadarius
Tony is on the border of thistier. Tony gets moved down. If
(19:45):
DeAndre Hopkins ends up signing with theChiefs right now, he just has the
boost of being the presumed wide receiverone in Kansas City, even if he
is even if Tony, excuse me, even if DeAndre Hopkins does join the
Chiefs, Tony does still have goodvalue, but his ADP will take a
hit as a result. Out ofthis group, my favorite to draft is
Mike Evans. Technically I have himranked here againish just one of those things.
(20:08):
This is where the projections spit himout, but he has been an
automatic clock for a thousand yards.I think ten touchdowns is well within his
range. Six to ten is superreasonable for him even without Tom Brady,
and we know that those Spike weekswill be there for Evans. So really
like drafting Evans out of this group, all right, everybody, That is
(20:32):
the run through the wide receiver tiersfor best ball rankings. We'll do this
again a little bit later on inthe summer as things settle down, but
that will do it for this episode. Thank you everybody for listening. Go
ahead and check out that article,also on FT and fantasy dot com,
of the wide receivers most likely tofinish as the top overall score at the
position. I'm not gonna lie.It's gonna be hard to dethrone Jefferson,
(20:56):
Chase or Cup, even for guyslike Steph Diggs. It's it be hard
to do that, But go checkit out. A handful of players I
think, do you have a caseto be need will say, all right,
everybody, thanks so much and I'llcatch you next time.
What's going on, my people?It is episode thirteen of the FTN Bestball
Cast, presented by the FtM PodcastNetwork. As always, I am your
host, Tyler Lochner. You canfind me on Twitter at Lochner NFL.
You can also find all my workon FTN Fantasy dot Com. We're continuing
(00:25):
our run through the best ball tiers, specifically talking about underdog. But if
you play DraftKings or or another bestball platform, these tiers are We're going
to be pretty dang similar, butwe're going We've done We've done quarterbacks,
we've done running backs. Today weare doing wide receiver tiers. You can
go through the rankings. I saythis over and over again. You can
debate all you want as to whetheror not this player should be, you
(00:48):
know, thirteenth among wide receivers orfourteenth among wide receivers. At the end
of the day, tiers are whereit's at. The difference between you know,
being ranked thirteen, fourteenth, fifteenthis probably very negligible, right Like,
it can go one way or theother. So that's really where tiers
come into play. You draft aplayer within a certain tier, you're going
(01:10):
to be pretty happy. Honestly,not that much more presentation needed for this.
I think we can just jump rightinto it with the Tier one Fantasy
Football wide receivers. Really no questionas to who's going to be at the
top of the tier here. It'sJustin Jefferson, It's Jamar Chase, and
then yes, I have Cooper Cupin this tier as well. Cup is
sliding down draft boards, I thinka little bit, but I think he's
(01:34):
very firmly in this Tier one ofwide receivers, right there with Jefferson,
right there with Chase Jefferson. Imean, what's not What is there that
you could say against him? Iguess you could say that he had a
complete dund in Week seventeen, Imean absolutely brutal. I think he had
seventeen total yards. Championship Week neededto deliver didn't happen. But guess what,
(01:55):
you didn't make it to Week seventeenwithout Justin Jefferson. So it happens,
right, there's variants players, evenin this Tier one group, we're
gonna have low weeks. Doesn't affectJefferson at all. A good one point
on one pick. Personally, I'mtaking Christian McCaffrey, but there's nothing wrong
with taking Justin Jefferson one O one, one hundred and eighty four targets last
year. I mean that is reallywhere it's at. One hundred and twenty
eight receptions over eighteen hundred yards.If you had a really monstrous week seventeen
(02:21):
Week eighteen game, he could havetopped two hundred yards. Only eight touchdowns.
I say only eight because compared tocompared to the other wide receivers in
this tier one, he doesn't scorequite as many touchdowns, but he does
make up for it in the receptionsand the yardage. I mean, he's
great, right, There's there's nothingnegative you can say about Justin Jefferson.
He averaged over twenty one This isfull PPR points, so not specifically for
(02:46):
underdog, but he averaged over twentyone full PPR points per game last year.
Just a total monster to our Chasemissed five games last year, but
if you actually extrapolate out to thefull seventeen game pace, he was very,
very similar to Justin Jefferson in receptions. His extrapolated pace was one hundred
(03:09):
and twenty two receptions. Jefferson wasat one hundred and twenty eight. Chase
topped over Excuse me, Chase toppeda thousand yards despite missing those five games,
and he scored nine touchdowns, sohe actually scored more touchdowns than Jefferson
in fewer games played. And ofcourse Chase had the thirteen touchdowns as a
rookie. It's not like it's notcompletely out of the question that for Chase
(03:31):
to score, you know, twentytouchdowns. I'm not saying that's that's going
to happen, but it's absolutely possible. I think if there's a player that
can very reasonably break Randy Moss's receivingtouchdown record, it's Jamar Chase. So
not quite a prediction, but absolutelywithin the realm of possibility. And think
(03:53):
Cooper Cup, I think he's firmlyin this tier. I mean last year,
through the first eight weeks before hegot injured, he was the number
one wide receiver. So dating backto the start of the twenty twenty one
season when healthy, Cooper Cup hasbeen pretty pretty handily the number one Fantasy
football wide receiver. Even last yearhe averaged you know, he averaged more
(04:14):
fantasy points per game than Chasing Jefferson. And it's just the injury that that
derailed him and the Rams offense.You know, they went all in,
they won the Super Bowl, andnow everything's falling apart. But they do
still have they do still have Cup, their stafford still there. Cup's going
to be a target machine once again. I mean he had ninety eight targets
(04:35):
in half the games. He wason pace for maybe for maybe two hundred
targets, maybe one hundred and fiftyreceptions. Like things were looking great for
Cooper Cup. So very firmly inTier one. Still, I think all
right. In Tier two, Ionly have two players are sorry, excuse
me, I only have three playersin this tier. So after Jefferson chasing
(04:57):
Cup. In Tier one, Ihave Tyreek Kill, I have Davante Adams,
and I have Steff Diggs. NowHill and Adams, excuse me.
Adams and Diggs I think are ina similar boat. They're both a little
bit on the older side. Adamsthis is his ear. He'll he'll be
thirty one at the end of theyear. Diggs will turn thirty. Now
that's not ancient. And these guysare still Tier two. But I do
(05:21):
think that we've maybe seen the peakfrom Stefan Diggs's He don't get me wrong,
he has been absolutely incredible with JoshAllen the last three years. But
I don't think he's going to takeanother step forward to compete with with with
Jefferson and Chase. And I saythat obviously Diggs has been having great,
(05:42):
great seasons with Josh Allen. Lastyear he had one hundred and fifty three
targets, one hundred and eight receptions, fourteen hundred yards, eleven touchdowns,
just great all around, thirty fourpercent air yard share, twenty seven percent
team target share. I do thinkthose numbers are going to be are going
to be very similar again in twentytwenty three. But we're talking about you
know, justin Jefferson Cup, JamarChase, they might have two hundred targets.
(06:05):
You know, they might push forone hundred and thirty to one hundred
and fifty receptions, eighteen hundred receivingyards. I just don't think that's in
Diggs's range of outcomes. Right now. We've seen what his role is in
the Bill's offense. It's massively valuable. That's the reason Diggs I have in
this tier two group rather than aTier one group. And I think Adams
is in a similar boat. Wesaw last year was a kind of a
(06:30):
leap of faith year for fantasy playersto take Adams right. Like, we
knew he was a great player,but how was he going to be without
Aaron Rodgers. He showed that heis still great. He had one hundred
receptions over fifteen hundred yards, stilla touchdown monster, scored fourteen touchdowns,
topped over twenty one hundred air yards, had his highest yards per reception dating
(06:50):
back to his third year in theleague, was his previous highest. So
still a great player. I mentionedhis age earlier. Still a great player,
but I mentioned his age because Idon't think he's going to take another
leap forward, especially because he's nowgetting another quarterback down grade, you know,
going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, not to Jimmy Garoppolo. Personally,
I think Karen Garoppolo are basically thesame player. But you could also
(07:14):
argue that this is the third consecutiveyear of a quarterback down grade for Adams.
So I think he's still a greatplayer. I think he's still worth
a late first you know, earlysecond round pick somewhere around that turn,
just not in the tier one withthe Jeffersons and the Chases and then Tyreek
Hills a really hard one. Ireally think he's a wild card. Hill
absolutely can lead the league in touchdowns, absolutely can lead the league in yards.
(07:38):
I think he could lead the leaguein receptions. So he's very borderline
Tier one for me. The onlyreason I don't have him there is because
I think Jalen Waddle is a littlebit more involved in Miami's offense this year.
In this being his third year,Tyree Hill is still just an absolutely
monstrous player. I kind of havea Hill in the Tier one point five
(07:59):
category. I mean, he had, except for the touchdowns, he had
his best year in the league,and that was after leaving Patrick Mahomes.
It's just crazy to me that Mahomesand Hill both were so successful without each
other last year. So no reasonto have Hill anywhere other than Tier two,
and I honestly I wouldn't even argueif you had him in Tier one
(08:20):
for best ball. For best ball, I really like drafting Tyree Hill early.
I mean obviously early, everyone's draftingearly. I really like drafting Tyree
Kill in the first ground, especiallybecause you can stack him pretty well with
other Dolphins players. All Right,the Tier three group, my Tier three
group is really small, I haveSeede Leam and AJ Brown here. I
(08:45):
think these guys are above the Tierfour group that I'm about to mention,
but a step below Digs and Adams. Now, AJ Brown really the only
concern with him concerns probably not theright word, but the only problem is
that he's on a run first offense. The Eagles passed the ball only fifty
(09:05):
percent of the time last year.It was bottom three in the league in
pass rate, and Brown's reception totalstook a hit as a result. He
only had eighty eight receptions. Hedid still have fifteen hundred yards. He
still score a lot of in touchdowns. He did still get over forty percent
of the team's air yards. Likejust from an advanced metric standpoint, a
J. Brown absolutely dominates, buthe's not getting the Justin Jefferson level of
(09:30):
targets. So that and really it'sjust that volume concern that prevents Brown,
I think from being in Tier twoeven tier one. I do think Brown
has a shot though, at beingat being the top overall fantasy wide receiver
if the Eagles decide to pass theball more, but it's really hard to
see them doing that, just withJalen hurts and hurts a skill set.
(09:52):
I mean, there's really no reasonnot to take advantage of that skill set
because it's so unique. And thenI have Ceedee Lamb here. I think
Lamb Lamb sees more volume. ButI was concerned with Dallas's reduction in passing
last year. They were a veryfast paced offense and then they slowed down
last year and they ran the balla lot more. Now, the one
(10:15):
thing that that Ceedee Lamb does havegoing for him is that the post Ezekiel
Elliott world of the Dallas Cowboys mightlook different, and we could see Lamb
go from one hundred and fifty sixtargets which he had last year. I
don't think it's outside of the realmof possibility to see him go up to
like one hundred and eighty targets.And you know he's a great player obviously.
(10:35):
So those two players are very firmlyin Tier three for me above this
other group. Now, this othergroup is pretty large. This is my
Tier four and starts with Garrett Wilson. It's Garrett Wilson, Amanra st Brown,
Jalen Waddle. That's kind of likemy Tier three point five, I'll
say, and then the rest ofthe tier is Crystal lave T Higgins,
(10:58):
Davante Smith, DK Metcal, MarieCooper, DeAndre Hopkins, and Deebo Samuel.
Now, in terms of ADP,I just gave a huge range of
players starting with Garrett Wilson being draftedaround fourteenth or fifteenth and then all the
way down to Marie Cooper who's beingdrafted at the end of the third round.
(11:20):
So basically, I'm saying every widereceiver being drafted in around two and
three is pretty similar in my eyes, at at least in equal tiers.
Now, yes, I do haveWilson and a Monra st Brown and Jalen
Waddle ranked ahead of these other players. This is kind of the difference between
tiers and rankings, right, ButI am happy to get one of these
players on my team. I'm happyif any of these players is my number
(11:43):
one wide receiver. Like if Igo with a running back in the first
round, maybe even the first tworounds. You could go running back and
you have to you might have todraft a quarterback earlier this year, Like
if you draft Steph Diggs and thenJosh Allen, I'm happy to get one
of these wide receivers in this tieras my number one wide receiver. I'm
not going to go through every singleone of these players, but Garrett Wilson
(12:05):
in particular, is I think hasthe best chance of making a big leap
to that top tier playing with AaronRodgers on an offense that really should funnel
targets his way. A monro SatBrown just doesn't see enough depth on his
targets. I mean, his averagedepth of target is about four to five
to six yards lower than the otherfantasy wide receiver ones. So despite you
(12:30):
know, racking up the points maybeundraftkings or its full full point PPR,
he's not going to get as asmany yardage as these other players already mentioned.
Waddle, who I really like.I think he's very stackable with Tyree
Hill, so I really like thatdolphin stack. I mean, Chrystal Lava
really was impressive as a rookie lastyear, being drafted at the end of
(12:56):
the second round, kind of atthat two three turn. This year,
I have him in that Tier fourgroup as well. And then I think
te Higgins DeVante Smith are in verysimilar boats. Right they're technically the number
two wide receivers on their team.Te Higgins has Chase obviously DeVante Smith has
a J. Brown. But bothof these players are good enough to be
(13:18):
a fantasy wide receiver one. Infact, they both were fantasy wide receiver
ones last year. Both of themare capable of being a number one wide
receiver on an NFL team. Soif anything were to happen or Chase,
if anything were to happen to Brown, I think both Higgins and Smith will
they might not go to media artheights. They might not become the number
one overall fantasy football player because theyalready do see obviously you know, great
(13:41):
volume, but they do have thatadded benefit of there is still room for
them to grow, right Like,if something were to happen to Chase,
Higgins becomes a more important part ofthat offense. Ditto with a J.
Brown. So I like that kindof ace up the sleeve for those players.
It's like, it's like that's kindof like the premise of the zero
(14:01):
RB strategy, right, Like youtake some players who you take some running
backs who maybe need an injury tohappen in front of them, or maybe
need to earn more playing time.These are fantasy wide receiver ones that have
room to grow that's hard to find. You find it with both Higgins and
Smith. I had Deebo Samuel inthis group. Some people might think that's
(14:26):
not right. I did write anarticle on the wide receivers most likely to
finish number one overall among all widereceivers, and I actually had Debo in
the tier three group. And Ithink that's just because his skill set is
so unique. I mean, thisguy is, I am my opinion,
(14:46):
other than Tyreek Hill, I thinkDeebo Samuel is the second best quote unquote
weapon in the NFL. Just hisability to score from anywhere on the field,
be used out of the backfield,turn the slants into seventy five yard
touched ounce. Great player. Willhe see enough volume? I don't know.
I don't. I don't think so. That's why he's pretty firmly in
(15:07):
the Tier four for me. Butin terms of what is his ceiling,
what is that upside? What ifsomething happens to George Kittle or Brandon Ayuk,
I guess, you know, there'sstill a question of who's going to
be the forty nine ers quarterback.But I guess kind of like Tee Higgins
and DeVante Smith, Samuel has somebuilt in upside as well. And the
good thing is we've seen it withhim. We've seen him take just as
(15:31):
you know, a very small numberof receptions compared to some of these other
players and turn it into just amonstrous fantasy season like we saw back in
twenty twenty one. So I do, like Deebo in Best Ball, he
will have those pop off weeks.All right. The next tier Tier five.
Actually a quick note on DeAndre Hopkins. It really feels like the Chiefs
are just the team that makes themost sense for him to land with.
(15:54):
I mean, he's a free agent, he's free to go sign where he
wants. He's later on in hiscareer. He wants to play with a
quarterback that gets it. He wantsto win. He's not going to go
join some random team just to bea high paid wide receiver. Like I
just don't think that's going to happen. I think wherever he lands, it's
going to be a good fantasy situation. So his ADP is gonna rise as
(16:18):
it should so very firmly in thetier four for me, all right.
The Tier five group, it's prettybig group here as well. DJ Moore,
Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams, JerryJudy, Keenan Allen, Christian Watson,
Drake London, Terry McLaurin, andChristian Kirk. This is the tier
of upside. I guess I wouldsay Christian Watson, Drake London have big
(16:44):
upside, Mike Williams has big upside. DJ Moore, well, I suppose
DJ Moore is pretty interesting, right, Like the way I take it,
it's it's really what do you thinkof Justin Fields? I think Justin Fields
has a legitimate shot of being theNFL MVP this year. I really do.
I think if he takes a stepforward, we might see like a
Jalen Hurts type season from Fields thisyear. And if that happens, DJ
(17:07):
Moore is going to be a greatfantasy player. We've seen DJ Moore be
a great fantasy player, be avery consistent fantasy player. I mean,
the joke was always that Moore wasjust a lock for twelve hundred yards and
four touchdowns. That's his floor.Really, I think, do we see
the Chicago Bears pass more? Dowe see fields run a little less?
I don't think we see fields runless. I'm very very bullish on the
(17:29):
Bears offense, very very bullish onJustin Fields, so I'm bullish on DJ
Moore. Calvin Ridley a bit ofa Rorschach test, like what will he
bring for your team? We knowhe's a good player. He produced a
top five Fantasy season the last timehe was a number one wide receiver on
a team. But is he thenumber one wide receiver? I mentioned Christian
(17:51):
kirk a little bit later in thisgroup because he showed he could be a
number one wide receiver for Jacksonville lastyear, So lots of mouth Stefida and
Jacksonville. I have both of thosewide receivers in this tier. Don't forget.
I mean Trevor Lawrence was heralded asthe next best thing since Andrew Luck
and last year he took a bigleap forward. I definitely think it's within
the realm of possibility that he supports. Both Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirki's top
(18:15):
twenty Fantasy wide receivers this year,so I have them both in this tier.
Drake London Christian Watson I mentioned themearlier. Young players don't have the
greatest quarterback situations right now, butDrake London did produce at a much better
clip last year with Desmond when Ritterwas on the field versus when Marcus Mariota
was on the field. So withRitter being the full time quarterback in twenty
(18:37):
twenty three, I think we canlook for a leap forward for Drake London.
Keenan Allen, I think, isthe one player I mentioned in this
tier that I'm just not quite assure about. He's having a hard time
staying on the field, and Iam truly concerned that that could happening in
twenty twenty three. So I dohave Alan ranked in tier. I do
(19:00):
have him ranked in this range.It's kind of like a default thing that's
just where the projections spit him out. But I'm not feeling the Keenan Allen
vibe personally leading into twenty twenty three. The next tier. This is the
last year I'm gonna I'm gonna stopafter this tier. This is Michael Pittman,
Tyler Lockett, Brandon I, Yuke, Mike Evans, Deante Johnson,
(19:21):
Jackson Smith, Najigba, Markus Brown. Actually I made a mistake here.
Markis Brown is a tier up.I had these notes tier from from before
the DeAndre Hopkins news. Mark's Browndefinitely gets a bump up in tier.
Trail On Burkes and George Pitkins arealso in this tier, and then Kadarius
Tony is on the border of thistier. Tony gets moved down. If
(19:45):
DeAndre Hopkins ends up signing with theChiefs right now, he just has the
boost of being the presumed wide receiverone in Kansas City, even if he
is even if Tony, excuse me, even if DeAndre Hopkins does join the
Chiefs, Tony does still have goodvalue, but his ADP will take a
hit as a result. Out ofthis group, my favorite to draft is
Mike Evans. Technically I have himranked here againish just one of those things.
(20:08):
This is where the projections spit himout, but he has been an
automatic clock for a thousand yards.I think ten touchdowns is well within his
range. Six to ten is superreasonable for him even without Tom Brady,
and we know that those Spike weekswill be there for Evans. So really
like drafting Evans out of this group, all right, everybody, That is
(20:32):
the run through the wide receiver tiersfor best ball rankings. We'll do this
again a little bit later on inthe summer as things settle down, but
that will do it for this episode. Thank you everybody for listening. Go
ahead and check out that article,also on FT and fantasy dot com,
of the wide receivers most likely tofinish as the top overall score at the
position. I'm not gonna lie.It's gonna be hard to dethrone Jefferson,
(20:56):
Chase or Cup, even for guyslike Steph Diggs. It's it be hard
to do that, But go checkit out. A handful of players I
think, do you have a caseto be need will say, all right,
everybody, thanks so much and I'llcatch you next time.
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