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July 12, 2023 15 mins
Tyler Loechner of FTNFantasy.com reveals the 10 most epxlosive wide receivers in fantasy football from 2022. These are the WRs that are "better in best ball" - add them to your target list!

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:03):
What's up, everybody, and welcometo Episode nineteen of the FTN Beastball Cast,
presented by the FTN Podcast Network.As always, I'm your host,
Tyler Lochner. You can find meon Twitter at Lochner NFL. You can
find all my work on FTN fantasydot com. Speaking of FtM fantasy dot

(00:23):
com, seriously, I love July. Training camp is a right around the
corner preseasons, right around the corner. The fantasy football season's heating up.
The scott Fish Bowl has started drafting. For those of you who follow along
with that, it's just football's inthe air. Fantasy footballs in the air.
I'm excited FtM Fantasy. We arepumping out the content right now.

(00:44):
Speaking of training camps, we justreleased our training camp Battles series. The
Quarterbacks article just dropped on Tuesday,this podcast being released on Wednesday. Go
check that out. Which which trainingcamp battles at the quarterback position or do
you have to look out for forfantasy We also have our second year scouting
report is still going. Desmond Ritterjust dropped the most explosive wide receivers for

(01:08):
fantasy football, which is the topicof this podcast. Players you're too high
on. Later this week, Ihave players you're too low on coming.
Who's this year's Josh Jacobs. Weeven just published that so much goodness at
FtM Fantasy dot Com. Go checkit out. Use code peaches to save
twenty percent on any of our subscriptions. Code peaches saves you the twenty percent.

(01:32):
Look I already you know what you'relistening to. This is the top
ten most explosive wide receivers in fantasyfootball. Part of a series we're going
to do this. We're also goingto go through the most explosive running backs,
tight ends, quarterbacks, the mostconsistent at each position. When you
hear those words, you might thinkthat you want consistency, Right, it's

(01:53):
something that you read about all thetime in fantasy football. Oh, this
player is consistent, he has ahigh floor. That's not what you want,
especially in bestball. You want explosiveness, you want volatility. My series,
we're going to go through the widereceivers. Here finds the players that
are most volatile, in other words, most explosive. And the way that

(02:15):
I did this was pretty simple.I did HALFPPR aligns with underdog here,
just took a look at players thereeach game they had last season and looked
at their standard deviation. So asimple way to think of this is,
if a player scored ten points inevery single fantasy football game, they had

(02:38):
seventeen games where they scored exactly tenpoints, they would be the most consistent
player in fantasy football. Now,if a player scored zero points and then
twenty points, and then zero pointsand then twenty points, they would end
up with the exact same average.Right, both players would have averaged ten
points per game. But obviously theguy who went zero, twenty zero,

(03:00):
twenty zero, twenty would be morevolatile or more explosive. And the interesting
thing is, from a Fantasy footballwins added perspective, the explosive player is
going to be the one you want, even though all those zeros are coming
in. The other player has abetter quote unquote floor right ten points per
game. You want the player thatprovides those ceiling weeks, especially in underdog

(03:21):
and best Ball. So who werethe most explosive players from last year and
what does it mean for their twentytwenty three outlook. We're going to do
wide receivers first year. The firstplayer on this list a little bit not
really surprising to see his name inthe top ten. Maybe I shouldn't go
first, Maybe I should go tenthdown to first. That's what I'm gonna
do, all right, We're gonnago tenth down to first. Then number

(03:44):
ten. Most explosive wide receiver forfantasy football last year was A J.
Brown of the Philly Eagles. Imean, look, I am so happy
that a player of this caliber escapedTennessee, escaped that passing offense. It
doesn't even matter or what happens withtrail On Burks's career. I will never
understand why the Tennessee Titans gave upAJ Brown just to immediately one for one

(04:08):
replacement with trail On Berks. Don'tget it happy, it happened. From
a fantasy perspective, AJ Brown wasgreat, and you know, he had
a thirty six point six game.He had a twenty eight point game,
he had a twenty two point fivepoint game his floor. He had a
one point two point game, hehad a four point seven point game.
But he was not as low assome other players, as some other elite

(04:31):
wide receivers as often so. Heactually only had three games with fewer than
ten fantasy points. One of thosegames he scored nine point four points.
So Brown actually did have a prettyhigh floor, and of course he has
the high ceiling. He checks inat number ten on our most explosive wide
Receivers list. Number nine. Ofall the wide receivers you're gonna hear here,

(04:51):
this one was the most interesting.This was Za Jones from the Jacksonville
Jaguars. He had numerous pop offweeks last year. He popped off in
Week three with nineteen point five Hewent off in Week twelve with twenty points,
Week fourteen seventeen point seven points.In Week fifteen he really exploded with
thirty one point nine points. Everyother week except for one, he scored

(05:15):
fewer than ten Fantasy points, sothat's why he ends on the most volatile
list. Did not reach that ceilingas often, did not have as high
of a floor like a j Brownwith the volatility was extreme from z Jones,
It's pretty interesting here. Calvin Ridleyis on the Jaguars. Now,
all the other top playmakers are returning, but with Ridley there, Jones may

(05:42):
only have like one or two popoff weeks, but those spike weeks,
you're gonna hear. All the othernames on this list. Z Jones' inclusion
on this list is an indicator thathe may be a good fantasy asset.
The only issue is will he seethe targets. If something happened to Calvin
Ridley, if something happens to ChristianKirk, Zay Jones steps into I think,

(06:03):
an extremely valuable role. The numbereight most explosive wide receiver for fantasy
football last year was Tyreek Hill.Not a surprise to see him on this
list. Honestly a little bit ofa surprise not to see him higher on
this list. He kind of likea J. Brown. He really doesn't
hit his floor as often as someof the other wide receivers on this list.

(06:26):
He also only had three games withfewer than ten fantasy points last year.
One of the games was nine pointfive points, and his ceiling is
probably the highest. He didn't necessarilyhit the highest ceiling last year, but
generally speaking, I would say Tyreek'sceiling is higher than any player in fantasy
football at the wide receiver position.At least, he had three games with

(06:48):
over twenty five fantasy points, sixgames with over twenty fantasy points. Elite
player, you don't need me totell you that all right Next up is
Steph Diggs, the seventh most awide receiver from last year. Looking at
his game logs, though he wasa little bit of a disappointment over the
second half of the year, andthat's that's relative to Stefan Diggs's talent level.

(07:15):
He was obviously not a disappointment becausehe was still scoring a lot of
fantasy points for your team, Buthis first half of the year before the
bye week was actually much better.He went over twenty fantasy points in four
of his first six games, andthen from Week eight to eighteen, he
did not top twenty fantasy points again. So you know, he's still going
in the first rounder. I justI hope that the second half of his

(07:40):
twenty twenty two season was not asign that his ceiling has been lowered.
Maybe the reason his back half feltso disappointing was because in the fantasy playoffs
starting week fourteen, fifteen sixteen,and then he didn't play Week seventeen,
he scored five point two points,eight point two points, and three point
six points and then miss week seventeen, So you know that factors in as

(08:01):
well. Number six, the otherMiami Dolphins wide receiver, Jalen Waddle checks
in, so both Dolphins player bothDolphins receivers are among the top ten most
explosive for fantasy football. Honestly,just really makes me like Tua. I
have not been drafting a ton ofhim, but after doing this research,

(08:22):
maybe I really need to start doingthat some more, because you're going to
get those big spike weeks from Waddle, from Hill and as a result,
from Tua. Number five on thislist, I was surprised to see this
one. It's a monra st Brownthe fifth most explosive wide receiver in fantasy
football last year, despite the facthis extremely low average depth of target of

(08:45):
six point four was almost half thatof some of the other players on this
list, he had one hundred andsix receptions one hundred and forty six targets,
so the volume was elite. Iwas not expecting to see him check
in as an explosive fantasy playmaker.Though he had the five point game in
Week two, he scored twenty threepoints and twenty nine points in weeks twelve
and thirteen. Had a pretty solidfloor some of the games here, though.

(09:11):
I think the part of the reasonthat he ranks fifth on this list
and maybe not like ten or eleventhor twelve's because he did play some partial
weeks where he was injured. Weekfive only three point eight points. Week
seven he didn't even score a fullFantasy point, So take that with a
grain of salt. But I dothink that Amanra is very very much worth

(09:31):
that second round price tag that youhave to pay for him right now.
I sometimes see him go at theturn and I don't even I don't even
hate that. Okay. The numberfour most explosive wide receiver for Fantasy last
year was Christian Watson from the Packers. Really not a surprise to see him
on here after his just you know, month long eruption weeks ten, eleven,
twelve, and thirteen over nineteen Fantasypoints in every single one of those

(09:54):
games. Of course, the concernis that there's no more Aaron Rodgers throwing
him the ball. But Jordan Lovehas first round pedigree Watson. Watson was
an early second round pick, sothere's a lot of talent here. So
I'm really not concerned with Watson's currentadp of like a late wide receiver too,

(10:16):
and his inclusion on this list asan explosive playmaker top four among all
wide receivers makes me like him alittle bit more in best Ball, I
think right now, I'm I haveabout eight percent Watson, So I'm pretty
much just level on Watson. Ithink that's where I want to be.
I'm not saying that you have togo overweight on him, but he's not
a player. I'm fading, okay. Number three is Mike Evans. Now,

(10:41):
I think that this was largely dueto his forty three or forty four
point game in Week seventeen. Heonly had one other game with over sixteen
Fantasy points, and that was whenhe scored twenty seven in Week four,
and then he had a fifty.He had a couple of fifteen point games,
he had three fifteen games, andthen every other game was ten points
or less. So yeah, therewas a fair amount of volatility here.

(11:05):
It just he only had two legitimatespike weeks, and because one of those
spike weeks was so so high,that's why we see Evans check in at
number three on this list. Butthat's said, we know that Evans is
a has the potential to be atouchdown machine, so from a volatility perspective,
really not surprised to see him onthis list. A little surprised to
see him so high, but againit's because of that one just massive spike

(11:28):
week. But that's what a playerlike Evans brings to the table. So
being drafted in that wide receiver thirtyrange, I actually do have a fair
amount of Evans as I chased thosespike weeks all right, number two,
I was kind of expecting to seethis guy at number one. It's Justin
Jefferson. The second most volatile akaexplosive wide receiver in fantasy football is Justin

(11:50):
Jefferson. He was on track tobe the Fantasy MVP last year before he
scored just two points in Week seventeen, which is really rough. Also contributed
to his volatility here, Jefferson hadfive games where he scored fewer than ten
Fantasy points. If you remember wetalked about like a j Brown Tyreek Hill,
they did not hit that floor asmuch as Jefferson, But of course

(12:13):
Jefferson hits his ceiling more often thanthose guys right now, thirty five points
in Week one, twenty six,in Week four, thirty in Week ten
twenty nine, Week fourteen twenty five, and Week twelve twenty five, and
Week fifteen twenty five and Week sixteen, Like the dude is pretty much automatic
to hit at least half of hisgames with over twenty points. But you
will have to eat some down weeks. But again that's fine. I mean,

(12:37):
he was the number one fantasy widereceiver last year. This is picture
perfect evidence that you want to chasethe volatility, you want to chase the
explosiveness the number one player. Iam curious. I can't you know this
is not live interact. If Iam curious, if anybody has figured out
who it is, it is DavanteAdams. The most explosive wide receiver in

(13:01):
fantasy football last year was Davante Adams, which does surprise me because he was
not playing with Aaron Rodgers. SoI mean, honestly, maybe that's a
good sign for Christian Watson, maybeAaron Rodgers. Maybe the good wide receivers
are good even without him. Adamsproved to do that last year. He
had a twenty five point game inWeek one, twenty six, in Week
five, thirty one, in Weeknine, twenty three, in Week ten,

(13:24):
thirty in Week eleven, thirty three, in Week thirteen, thirty one
in Week seventeen. But then healso had a lot of the down weeks
fewer than ten fantasy points in weekstwo, eight, fourteen, fifteen,
and sixteen and eighteen. I knoweighteen doesn't really count, but you know,
for the sake of looking at thefull season, he had fewer than

(13:45):
ten points in those games. Soa pretty big wide, a pretty big
range here. I think this isa fascinating stat. Fifty nine percent of
Davante Adams's games we're between five pointeight fantasy points and twenty seven point eight
fantasy points. It's a huge range. That's a twenty two point range,
and it means that forty one percentof his games fell outside of that range.

(14:07):
So forty one percent of his gameshe scored over twenty eight fantasy points
or fewer than six fantasy points.Look, it's all the evidence I need
to know that chasing the explosiveness isall you really want to do. And
given that we're chasing that in BestBall, especially in weekly winners, I
mean, maybe this list is evenmore valuable for weekly winners than it is

(14:28):
for something like Bestball Menia, becauseyou want those spike weeks and you want
them to align. These are thetypes of players you want to chase.
That is going to do it forthis episode. Like I said, we're
going to go through all the positions. We're going to go through the most
explosive players players at each position,the most consistent players at each position.
Be sure to check out FtM Fantasydot Com. Like I said, so
much good stuff there right now,and use code peaches to save twenty percent

(14:54):
on any of our subscriptions. Andthe other I mean super exciting news.
You can pre order the FTN Almanacnow we are publishing, formerly the Football
Outsiders Almanac. It is now comingto FTN the reading material for any serious
football fans, So go check thatout as well. And that's going to

(15:16):
do it for this episode of TheBest Ball Cast. And I will catch
you guys next time
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