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July 28, 2023 12 mins
Tyler Loechner of FTNFantasy.com reveals the 10 most explosive running backs in fantasy football from 2022. These are the RBs that are "better in best ball" - add them to your target list!

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:05):
What's up, everybody, and welcometo our next installment of the FTN Bestball
Cast, presented by the FTN PodcastNetwork. As always, I'm your host,
Tyler Lochner. You can find meon Twitter at Lochner NFL. And
today we're talking about the ten mostexplosive running backs for fantasy football. This

(00:27):
is using last year's data, buttrust me, when you read the names
on this list, a lot ofthem are going to be guys that you
want for twenty twenty three as well. Before we get into that, I
have to tell you about some ofthe things that are happening on FTN Fantasy
right now. The Almanac is coming. The Almanac is coming soon, hosted
by FTN. This is Aaron shotsis Almanac, the FTN Fantasy Football or

(00:50):
not Fantasy Football. I'm so usedto saying Fantasy Football. The FTN Football
Almanac, presented by Aaron Shots.This thing is so detailed. Chapters on
every single team in the NFL,essays on them, breakdowns, more stats
than you can imagine, packed intoone pdf, available for download very soon.

(01:11):
You have to check it out.Just google it FTN Almanac, it'll
be there. The other thing totalk about is the circum Millions. If
you have not signed up for thisyet, this is a really fun contest.
You win one million dollars if youget first place first of all,
so a chance to become a millionaire. If you get last place, you
get one hundred thousand dollars, whichis also awesome. A thousand dollars entry

(01:32):
fee up to five times each weekof the You can enter up to five
times each week of the NFL season. You pick five games against the spread.
That's all you do. You canregister in person at Circa or any
of its sister properties in Las Vegas, or through a proxy service if you
are out of state. Registration isopen now. It runs through September ninth
at two pm Eastern time, Soget in now. Circumillions go check that

(01:53):
out. FTN Almanac check that outas well. All right. Our topic
for the day the top ten mostelosive running backs in fantasy football. The
way that I calculated this was prettysimple. I just looked at the standard
deviation of each player from last yearcompared it for the top sixty running backs.
So I had to cut off thetop sixty running backs in terms of

(02:15):
total points scored. Which one ofthem had the largest standard deviation. What
that means is if a player scoredten points every single week, they would
be the most consistent player in fantasyfootball. If a player scored zero points
and then twenty points, and thenzero points and then twenty points, they
would have the same average points pergame as the guy that scored ten every

(02:35):
week, but they would be muchmore volatile. And for the word that
I use as explosive, they wouldbe much more explosive. You might think
that you want the guy that scoresten points every week. They'll say,
oh, it's a much safer floor. The data shows my fantasy wins added
metric shows you actually want the explosiveplayer. It's okay to eat those zeros
because the ceiling is much higher.The twenty points ceiling is much higher.

(02:59):
All right, let's get into this. This is a guy. He is
buzzing at FTN. His ADP isrising. Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick
McKinnon the tenth most explosive running backin all of fantasy football last season.
His ceiling First of all, hehit his ceiling at the ideal time last
season. It's fourteen, fifteen andseventeen. He scored over twenty points.

(03:21):
He had over twenty eight points inweeks fourteen and fifteen from weeks one through
twelve, though he never topped tenFantasy points per game. He's back with
the Chiefs. Isaiah Pacheco is stillthe lead back. A little bang depth
during training camp, but McKinnon's gonnabe there. He's gonna be the third
down guy and his strong second halfof the year. Look, usually we
love these running backs that have astrong finish to the previous year. McKinnon

(03:46):
he's still being drafted after one overall, so I think you should add McKinnon
to your target list, and he'sa great stack with Mahomes the number nine
most explosive running back and Fantasy footballthe big Dog King Henry him self.
He had twenty two or more gamesor twenty two points or more in eight

(04:06):
games. I mean, her DerrickHenry is proof that the down weeks.
He had multiple down weeks. Hestarted his year with eight point two points
and eight point five points, andthen he had another game where he only
scored seven and another game where heonly scored five. You can eat those
bad weeks when you're producing twenty twohe had, he maxed out at thirty

(04:28):
five last year. Henry is goingin the third round of a lot of
Fantasy Football Bestball drafts right now.So another great target there, number eight.
I really liked drafting him this year. Big question mark though, is
how long will he be suspended for? This is Alvin Kamara. Last year
he was the eighth most explosive runningback in Fantasy football. He was the

(04:49):
RBS sixteen overall in PPR leagues.Last year it was a down year.
I meant. Prior to that,he had four straight years where he finished
in the top ten. But lastyear he still proved to be explosive.
He had a thirty eight point game. A couple of years ago. I
remember he had the sixth touchdown gamein the playoffs. So Kimara, despite
the suspension it's currently baked into hisADP really like drafting him. I also

(05:14):
think Kimara is a worthwhile fourth runningback if you go hyper fragile. This
is something I've been thinking about.If you go hyper fragile, let's say
you start your draft with three straightrunning backs, or you draft three running
backs in the first five rounds.Oftentimes you might not draft another running back.
You might just go with those three, or you might take a fourth,
like really later in the draft.I think Kimara has could potentially be

(05:38):
a fourth on those hyper fragile teams. Something to think about. Number seven.
My favorite fantasy football player Austin Eckler. I mean, he had four
games with over thirty points his ceilinghe reached so consistently last year. Of
course, he had down weeks twohe had he had four games with fewer
than ten fantasy points. But Eckleris a very worthwhile first round pick.

(06:00):
There was a period of time wherehe was going in the second round when
there was like some questions over whetheror not he was going to hold out
hold out. But Eckler, he'sa fantasy godsend, So just keep drafting
him. Number six, This one'ssuper interesting. He's on a new team
now. This is Miles Sanders.He finished as a top fifteen fantasy running

(06:21):
back last year despite handling fewer thanfifty percent of Philadelphia's rushing attempts. Last
year, he only had forty sevenpercent of their rushing attempts, and he
only scored thirty five percent of theirtouchdowns. And he still finishes a top
fifteen back in PPR leagues. Hestill finished as the sixth most explosive running
back in all of fantasy football.Carolina just gave him a four year deal

(06:42):
with up to twenty five million dollars. Chuba Hubbard is really the only other
kind of recognizable name on the depthchart. Sanders could be in for a
big year. There's been chatter ofhim catching more passes. Look, I'm
not a giant Sanders fan, buta lot of these metrics do to kate
that he might be a value rightnow. Number five man, this one

(07:04):
will ruffle some feathers. This iscam Acres. I really think he was
included on this list just because hewas so much in the doghouse to be
in the year he had. Hehad five games with fewer than five Fantasy
points, and then he was reallygood down the stretch. I mean a
top five NFL running back, notjust fancy foot. He was top five
Fantasy Football, but also just topfive period. Of course, he had

(07:27):
the thirty four point game in Weeksixteen to advance a lot of teams to
the championship round. Cam Akers agood zero RB target. I would say,
if you're starting your draft with norunning backs, cam Akers he could
become the first running back you takenumber four. I think I can kind
of off right this one. Numberfour. Last year, the most explosive

(07:47):
running back was Dante Foreman, formerlyof the Carolina Panthers, now on the
Chicago Bears. I mean he rippedoff some big games without Christian McCaffrey.
He had a thirty point game,he had a twenty two point game,
he had a nineteen point game.The reason he landed on the volatility list
is because he had a whole bunchof games with fewer than one fantasy point
when Christian McCaffrey was still on theteam. So I think we can off

(08:09):
right it. But Foreman, theBears backfield is such a mess. There's
Foreman, Roshawn Johnson, There's Herbert, so you know it's definitely gonna be
running back by community. Of course, Justin Fields is probably gonna rush for
over a thousand yards. But Foremanis a player you can take some shots
on. Just not a core playerfor the fantasy builds this year. Number
three, this could be a coreplayer, especially in the second round.

(08:31):
I don't understand why his ADP isaround twentieth. Right now, this is
Tony Pollard. I mean, hefinished last season as a top ten running
back in PPR leagues. He hadEzekiel Elliott still handling a significant chunk of
touches. And now Pollard is theonly guy in Dallas. And for some

(08:52):
reason he's going in the second round. I mean running back, which is
very devalued right now. I thinkon underdog you can get some good I
mean I already mention and you canget Derrick Henry in the third round.
Ramandra Stevenson's going in the third round. Tony Pollard about twentieth overall at the
very end of the second round.It's just he's a great pick. There's
nothing else to say about it.Tony Pollard is a fantastic pick. One

(09:13):
of the best round two values thereis right now, number two. This
one's very interesting. A lot ofthese names are interesting. This is Josh
Jacobs, the second most explosive runningback in fantasy football. Last year,
he finished sixty five percent of hisgames between six point four and twenty nine
point three Fantasy points. That isa twenty three point range where sixty five

(09:35):
percent of his games finished. Thatmeans the thirty five percent of his games
finished with either either fewer than sixpoint four or thirty plus. That's insane,
totally insane. Josh Jacobs, he'sa dice roll right now. I
mean if you draft him in thethird round, sometimes slipping to the fourth.
But I think his ADP is startingto level out in the third round.

(09:56):
I mean he'll go down as justa smashing, smashing six. But
with Jacobs in particular, there doesseem to be a pretty legitimate risk that
he misses some games, so adicey player there. Number One. The
most explosive running back in fantasy footballlast year, I think, mostly due
to just one single game, wasJoe Mixon. He hit a floor of
five point three points and a ceilingof fifty three point one. This is

(10:20):
half PPR leagues. I mean,Mixon would not have been on this list
if it was not for the fiftythree point one game. But that's kind
of what you get with a threedown back in an offense that can score
a lot of points. Mixon's touchdowndistribution was just, you know, very
condensed last year. It was notspread out. I think we do see
it more spread out. I dothink we see more spike weeks and more

(10:41):
floor weeks. I do not thinkwe see a fifty plus point game Mixon,
there's still a question of like whetheror not he'll be suspended, but
he's not being drafted very high.His fifty three point ceiling will probably go
down as the best game of hiscareer. But I do think thirty twenty
five to thirty is something that hecould reasonably hit a couple of times per

(11:05):
season. So maybe not actually themost explosive running back for twenty twenty three,
but according to the data, hewas the most explosive for twenty twenty
two. All Right, So asyou see the vast majority of names on
this list, Mixon, Jacob's,Eckler, Pollard, Kamarra Derrick Henry,
these are players you want you wantto target volatility at the running back position,

(11:28):
really at any position in fantasy football. All right. That is going
to do it for this episode ofthe Best Ball Cast. Be sure to
go check out FTN Fantasy dot Comfor my work, all of the work
from my colleagues. The Almanac,The Almanac, The Almanac, the Almanac,
Go check it out. Best thingto hit the fantasy football shelves this
offseason. I'm out Sambo cattle back, Pea Famo tatl Fio Battle, Famble cattle backspe
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