Episode Transcript
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What's going on everybody? And Welcometo another episode of the FTN Bestball Cast,
presented by the FTN Podcast Network.As always, I'm your host,
Tyler Lochner. You can find meon Twitter at Lochner NFL and you can
find all of my work on FTNFantasy dot com, including the Almanac.
Aaron shots is FTN Football Almanac twentytwenty three has dropped. You can even
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buy it on Amazon now the hardcopy. I know a lot of people
out there asking is the hard copyavailable? Yes it is. It's on
Amazon Prime, so you get itjust within a couple of days. Or
you can do the PDF version thatis available. It's five dollars cheaper to
get the pdf version, but whoknows. I mean great great coffee,
great coffee book, coffee table book, if you want that. It's over
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four hundred pages long, twenty orthirty five dollars for the pdf version thirty
nine ninety nine for the hardcover versionon Amazon. Just just google FTN Almanac
you'll find it. I contributed toit. I'm very proud of this,
the work that went into it,not just from myself but from others at
FTN and of course Aaron's Team,the Former Football Outsider's Crew. It was
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a pleasure to work with them,so you definitely have to check that out.
It will make you a smarter fantasyfootball player, bestball player, football
fan, all of the above.I did the Cults chapter, I did
the Texans chapter, and I didthe player comments for both Indianapolis, Houston
and Jacksonville. I particularly liked writingCalvin Ridley's player comment. I think I
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had the most fun with that one, So go check that out all right.
We also have on FtM Fantasy dotCom. We have so many incredible
articles coming out, including from JeffRadcliffe. He's dropping his tears are dropping,
magic sports guy Kevin Adams, theCEO, our leader at FTN,
He's dropped his best ball tiers.You got to check that out as well.
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Lots of good stuff coming out.I just dropped the best Fantasy picks
by round so you can see whomy favorite players are in each round.
Spoiler alert. I absolutely love TonyPollard in round two. I think he's
just a smashing, smashing pick inround two. But that's not our topic
today. Our topic is actually playersthat are falling down draft boards. So
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we've been tracking underdog ADP all summer, and we're going to look at who
has fallen the furthest since training campstarted. So this is like a roughly
a three week period here, firstcouple of preseason games and the books.
Interesting enough, the player who hasfallen the most had a pretty good first
preseason game for the Patriots. Alittle bit of a hint there who That
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might be? The last episode coveredthe top ADP risers. You know,
we've seen Justin Ras shoot up thedraft boards. We've seen Jalen Hyatt shoot
up draft boards. Lots of widereceivers shooting up, lots of wide receivers
falling down too. Who is whois at the top of the list.
I already kind of teased him.It's Taekwon Thornton. He has fallen further
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since training camp opened than any otherplayer buy a lot, by a huge
amount. His ADP when training campopened was in the one seventy four one
seventy five range. It's now twooh nine. He has fallen three full
rounds. I mean, look,it's not like he was going early in
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drafts to begin with. He waslike a fifteenth round pick though, so
you know you're shooting your shot atthat point, but there's still a handful
of rounds left. Now he's goingin the eighteenth round if he's being drafted
at all, two oh nine overall. But he did make a really nice
catching traffic on the Patriots first preseasongame on Thursday nights, so who knows,
maybe that stops the bleeding, maybehe stops falling. He did miss
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about a week of training camp.He returned. The reports have been kind
of up and down about him.So they signed DeVante Parker to that new
deal, which I think cooled downpeople's talk about Thornton. But look,
we'll see he's basically free in draftsnow, so I don't mind taking him
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in the last round. He isjust a second year player. He is
a speedster, and New England's offenseit's impossible to see them being as bad
as they were last year. Onceagain, all right, the other player
falling the most. This player hasfallen two full rounds, but the bleeding
has stopped. It's Cadarius Tony.He was going in that he was going
around seventy second overall, so that'sthe end of the sixth round. Beginning
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of the seventh round. He's fallentwo rounds now so end of the eighth
beginning of the ninth ADP ninety fiveoverall. Now, so of course this
happened when Tony was hurt, andthen that led to every single other Chiefs
wide receiver, literally every single oneof them, including some that might not
even make the team, flying upthe draft boards, all because Tony was
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hurt. I think picking Tony aroundone hundred makes sense. It wouldn't have
made a lot of sense if hisADP continued to slide, so I think
it. I think it did stopat the right point. A ninth round
pick for an explosive player in aPatrick Mahomes offense. It's the pick you
want to make. It really is, all right. I'm gonna group these
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two together because they're both falling forthe same reason. Chiggy a Conquo and
Traylon Burkes, both from the TennesseeTitans, have fallen down the draft boards
significantly. Chig has dropped fourteen picksfrom one thirty overall to one forty five
overall. Traylon Burks has dropped nearlya full round from seventy sixth overall to
eighty seventh overall. And of course, the common thread. There is DeAndre
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Hopkins joining the team, so acon quo I mean great advanced metrics last
year was among the leaders among intight ends in yards per route run.
Traylon Burks, a first round picklast year, was primed to be the
wide receiver one in Tennessee. Butwhen a player like DeAndre Hopkins joined the
team, even last year's first roundpicks takes a backseat. Burkes is not
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Jamar Chase. You know, hedoesn't have that level of pedigree. He
was a mid first round pick,so very very easily slots into the number
two spot in Tennessee. But howvaluable is that really from a fantasy perspective.
I mean, that team still hasDerrick Henry. The quarterback situation,
it's gonna be Ryan Tannehill. It'snot super exciting. The wide receiver two
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role in Tennessee is just not asvaluable as it was. So it makes
a ton of sense to see Burkessliding down a chig. It makes sense
for him to slide down too,right, because now you've got Hopkins.
We're talking about an offense that's notgoing to pass the ball a lot already,
So you know, these these secondaryplayers, well, really they were
primary players, but now they're secondaryplayers. They're riskier, so I think
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it makes sense where they're where they'rebeing drafted. I don't personally think that
Burks fell far far enough. Ithink he was already being drafted as if
a breakout season was going to happenfor him, and now he needs a
breakout season on top on top ofHopkins stealing some of those touches, So
I'm not sure how I feel aboutthat. One Another tight end that has
slid down the draft boards is JawanJohnson now in Best Ball in particular,
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I really like drafting Johnson because he'sgonna have some two touchdown games, and
when you're playing Bestball, of course, you don't have to guess when they're
going to come. So I likepairing him with Derek Carr. Honestly,
as a late stack. You canget Derek Carr, you can get Jawan
Johnson, and you can get RashidShahid, who is another player who's falling
down the draft boards. Not aton. He's dropped seven ADP spots since
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training camp opened, mostly most ofthat has come recently because he was injured.
It doesn't sound very serious though,he's gonna miss training camp time,
which of course you don't want todo as a second year player. But
he was very solid last year asa deep threat, and he's going to
be that again this year. MichaelThomas is, of course, you know,
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a chain mover, and then ChrisOlavey is the wide receiver one on
the team. Shahid can easily slotin as that field stretcher for this team.
I mean, they just they don't, they don't. He fits in
perfectly there. I really like draftinghim. I will absolutely be buying this
dip. I already have a tonof Shahid. It does not sound like
a serious injury. It sounds likehe will be back well before week one,
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So I am buying the dip.All right. Another player who's dipping
Another wide receiver. I'm telling youlots of wide receivers are dropping. Alan
Lazard. This one's interesting. Hewas going about one ten when training camp
opened. Now he's going about oneeighteen, one nineteen. He's gonna be
a starter with the Jets. ButI think people are starting to remember that
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Corey Davis is still there. That'snot something that that you know, he's
not an exciting player. Of course, but Corey Davis is He's going to
see the field, and when hesees the field, it's gonna be similar
snaps and looks and targets to Lazard. Garrett Wilson is of course locked in.
Lazard is sliding down draft boards alittle bit. I think as a
result, Rashod Bateman is also slidingdown draft boards. I think a lot
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of this is due to the ZaFlowers hype. Bateman has dropped eight spots
from eighty eighth overall to ninety sixthoverall. Bateman, of course was on
the publist, but he has beenactivated. He's back at practice. I
expect we see his ADP rise again, probably back to around that ninetieth overall,
eighty eighth overall, so the dip. I fully expect to be on
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the upswing here. And his teammateJK. Dobbins has also seen his ADP
dip for similar reasons. He's justnot practicing, so he's dropped nearly a
full round. Eleven spots slide forDobbins since training camp opened, from fifty
seventh overall so like a late sixthround pick to sixty seventh overall, down
to a late seventh round pick.There's also all sorts of talk about the
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Ravens passing more, passing more,passing more. If Dobbins doesn't catch some
of those passes, that's another reasonhe's sliding down the draft boards all right,
going back to New England and goingback to the tight end position.
Mike Gasicki's dropping down the boards oneeighty six overall when training camp opened to
two hundredth overall. Now here weare after the first preseason game, first
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set of preseason games are going on, Hunter Henry looks like the guy to
own at the tight end position inNew England. And that's exactly what's happening.
Gasicki's dropping down the draft boards andHunter Henry is rising up the draft
boards. Henry's ADP was two thirteenwhen training camp opened. It's up to
two hundred as well. So rightnow Henry and Ghasicki are being drafted back
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to back in terms of ADP.But I still think that, you know,
check back in another week, you'regonna see You're gonna see Hunter Henry
going ahead of Gassicki. Another anothertight end dropping down the draft board is
Trey McBride from one hundred and ninetyninth overall, the two o seven overall.
Look, I know we're talking alot about some very late picks here,
and I will get to some moreinteresting picks maybe after this one,
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but I do think he's still worththat eighteenth round flyer. He's of course
signing down the draft boards because there'stalk of Kyler Murray. It's coming out
that it's pretty unrealistic that he'll beready for week one, So of course
when you're taking those flyers at theend of the draft. Earlier on,
there was some optimism that Murray mightbe ready right from week one, which
makes McBride a little less interesting,and that's why he's falling down the draft
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boards. Dolphin Cook is also slidingdown from ninetieth overall the ninety seventh overall.
Where's he gonna apply? I mean, he flirted a lot with the
Jets. It's been a while sincethat happened. He has not signed with
them. Miami is still a namethat pops up sometimes. All we know
is that we're now almost midway throughAugust and he's not on a team yet,
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so it makes a ton of sensefor him to continue to slide down
the board. Of course, ifCook joins a team, he's probably as
he touches right away. I mean, he was not as effective last year,
but he is absolutely still good enoughto join a team and be in
a running back by committee backfield rightaway. So he's sliding. How much
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more will he slide? I dothink he'll probably just continue to slide now
until rumors of him joining a teamheat up, and then his ADP will
shoot back up as soon as hejoins a team. Jonathan Taylor a very
interesting one. His ADP was seventeenthoverall and has slid down all the way
to twenty fourth overall, So thatmeans Taylor is going at the two three
turn. Now. You could realisticallystart your draft with Justin Jefferson and still
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get Taylor on the way back,or Christian McCaffrey and then get Taylor on
the way back, Jamar Chason Taylor. So how much more will it slide?
Now? Like it's so so hardto decipher what is going on with
this situation. He wants a trade, he's injured, He's not injured.
It's his back, it's his ankle, it's an excused absence. He's at
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practice, he's being a supportive team. He's being like, there's just there's
so much to follow with the story, but all we know is that the
bottom line is he has requested atrade, the Colts do not seem keen
on that trade. And then there'ssome question as to whether or not he's
injured. It certainly seems like somevideos have come out, it certainly seems
like he is legitimately injured. SoI do think that the risk of injury
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is a greater risk than a riskof a holdout for Taylor, and he
slipped down from the middle of thesecond round to the end of the second
round as a result. Makes aton of sense, all right. A
couple more players that are sliding downthe boards. Most of these are injury
related. Joe Burrow has dropped threespots. Of course, that's injury related.
There's some question as to whether ornot he'll be ready for Week one,
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but he's still going at the endof the fourth round. I mean,
he was going kind of middle ofthe fourth to the end of the
fourth. Now he's firmly going atthe end of the fourth beginning of the
fifth. He's not going to fallmuch further than that. Isaiah Pacheco has
not started practicing yet. His ADPhas slipped three spots. By the way,
Clyde Edwards Hilaire has not completely goneaway there. Edwards Hilaire is taking
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some of those first team reps,most of the first team reps with Pacheco
out, so keep paying attention tothat situation there. I think the last
name to talk about here, thisone's interesting to me, is kind of
going in the middle of the draftsis Jamison Williams from the Detroit Lions.
I love drafting this guy this year. I think he is your playoff hammer
and he's he's sliding down the draftboards. He has fallen half a round
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since training camp opened from ninety sevento one oh three. Of course,
he is suspended to start the season, so you do have to eat that.
I think that's perfectly baked in athis ADP. Though this is an
explosive offense that everybody wants a pieceof. Williams is a pretty cheap exposure
to this super super cheap to stackwith Jared Goff, so I really like
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doing that and Williams sliding down thedraft boards, I think it's just people
he did kind of get into,like a fight earlier on in training camp.
I don't know if that's why hisADP slips some or if it's just
that now that the season's getting closer, those six games feel a little bit
scarier to willingly accept. But whateverthe case is, I am personally buying
the dip on this massively blosive widereceiver. All right, that is gonna
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do it. That is running throughsome of the ADP followers since Training camp
opened. I think we'll revisit thistopic. Maybe we'll combine followers and risers
in a next episode, but maybeit's a good one to do on like
a weekly basis because a lot ischanging. Of course, injuries, shoot
some guys down, shoot some guysup. These preseason games are going to
be very, very very impactful onADP. Like Taekwon Thornton had a pretty
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good game, like I mentioned,very curious to see where his ADP goes.
Nathaniel Dell had another good game.They're like very interesting to see where
his ADP goes. It's gonna goup. We know that for probably both
of them. How far is thequestion? All right, everybody that is
gonna do it? I am outtacklu foul Fall and tackling Fat pe Fi,
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Tacklu Paul Battle Table, tackling FA