Rick Wilson

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hey, everybody, Happy Friday. Welcome back once again to Behind
the Numbers with the Wilson's, where I'm joined as always
on every Friday with my son Andrew Wilson, who is
the smart one in the family when it comes to
pulling public opinion research, big data analytics, a I all
that stuff that drives all that stuff. So, Andrew, We've
got some banger news this week on Donald Trump's actually

(00:21):
super rising approval ratings. And by rising, I do not
mean rising, I mean.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Crashing new lows. Yeah, new loans is not improving. It's
getting much much worse. And I think the most important
thing to know about this is that his new low
approval rating is driven by a new low approval with
independence specifically. So you see that green line as US adults, yep,

(00:45):
and that that dashed gray line is independent. So Independence
on average disapprove of Donald Trump more than US adults
in general. And I also think Republicans are at a
slightly low EBB for approval of Donald Trump. Not super promising,
not great for him, and I think it explains a

(01:06):
lot of the panic we're seeing from the Republican Party.
And we can talk all about that.

Speaker 1 (01:09):
Yeah, let's Actually, let's dive into that a little bit
because I think I think, as you know, you put
it out earlier on a on a call, that a
lot of this is coming uh, manifesting itself as this
panic over having to keep the house with redistricting, right
and manifesting itself as as a sort of rising tide
of panic.

Speaker 2 (01:30):
Yeah, And I think I think maybe if we if
you look back a little bit, I think the panic
might have started with this Epstein stuff. And and I
know we've we've we've gone back and forth about this
a few times. Epstein is not gonna be anybody's top issue.
But the Republican Mike Johnson closing the house because Epstein

(01:51):
was suddenly this looming, terrible issue, I think it was
really indicative of a sort of snowball of panic in
the whole party on all fronts. And redistricting has it's
it's scary for a few reasons, I think, and we
can talk about that, but at the same time, it's
clearly a sign of panic.

Speaker 1 (02:12):
I think that this moment that we're that we're looking
at the party where they feel like they need a
cheat code to hold the house is look, they may
get their way in Texas, and they may they have
a harder hill to climb in Florida because of Amendments
five and six, which are the rediscibal amendments from twenty ten.

(02:32):
But but Democrats, if they fight back on this and
level the playing field, I think it does two things.
I think it sends a signal to the other Republican states, like,
don't play fuck around, We'll just keep rolling up this number.
And the second signal I think it sends to Democrats
is to say, we're in this fight. You're gonna win
this thing in twenty twenty six if we do it right.

(02:54):
And Trump and his and his base are now more
demoralized than they've been in a very long time.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Yeah, I mean it's going to be. I mean, I
hesitate to describe future elections as a wipeout or whatever.
We don't we don't do that. But at the same time,
Republicans are in this very unenviable position and they're all
attacking each other. This is Reutterer's ipsos as well, showing

(03:23):
him had a new low for their poll.

Speaker 1 (03:26):
I mean, I mean, folks, it's not just it's not
just the look Trump's approval rating, Folks has always been Andrew,
you talked about this before. It's always been sticky, right
around forty percent, lower, just a little higher, never quite
you know, does much better. But a fifty six percent disapproval,
He's now in the territory Biden was in when everyone
was like, he's doomed. He must be, he must be.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
He's powerless now, right, Yeah, I mean this was this
was Joe Biden's pre election approval rating. And and you know,
we're only in the second quarter of this year and
Trump has you know, all this twenty twenty six is

(04:08):
going to be devastating. I think losing is actually going
to hurt him. It's going to even knock down his
approval even more.

Speaker 1 (04:14):
Yeah. He he's always been seen by his people as
he cannot be defeated. Trump always wins. So we're starting
to get some really shitty economic news popping out. They've
revised the first two quarters of the year now way
way down, and obviously economics are always a big primary
level driver underneath all this. I mean, I think that's

(04:35):
probably good for another three to five points of disapproval
on the top line.

Speaker 2 (04:41):
I think that explains why Independence are where they are
right now. You know that that subset of the electorate
is really focused on the economy, and that's why they
went with Trump. That's why because he you know, was
extremely focused on the economic message, whether or not it
was in the trial gospel or whatever, but right of course,

(05:06):
but it did work with independence and he's failing on that.
He's not doing anything about it. And you know, the
big ugly bill made it, you know, much much worse,
and it there's no end in sight.

Speaker 1 (05:21):
Really, I am super excited when when the uh, the
ACA health premiums come due, with the big jump they've
added in the ACA health premiums this year, I am
excited to see how that goes, because it is going,
in my view two to split off a fraction of
those Republicans. You know, there's all those Cubans in Miami,

(05:43):
was like, no, I don't want obamacarey it's so you
so is social Lisma. But they want their ACA. And
now it's gonna go up significantly in price. We're gonna
have more people uncovered. Right as the bill starts to
kill rural healthcare, in small town healthcare and lower income
health care scilities cross the country. I mean, has he
bought himself this sort of perfect storm.

Speaker 2 (06:05):
I think so, and you can see it across the
polling with Republicans. You know, his approval rating gallup founded
at eighty nine, but on specific issues he's almost universally
under that except talk.

Speaker 1 (06:19):
About talk about that for a minute, because I think people,
I think people, you know.

Speaker 2 (06:25):
So what the reason it's the reason this is happening
is because Republicans are, you know, a lower and lower
EBB on each issue, right, drifting away just slightly on
each issue except for Ukraine, which I'm surprised by, but
I'd have to look back and see. But Independence are
doing the same thing a little more dramatically than Republicans.
That's why his approval rating is at this forty. His

(06:48):
disapproval is at fifty six and approvals at forty. And
there's no way around the logic of if your approval
rating is in the forties and you're going into midterms, yeah,
it's you're not gonna perform well.

Speaker 1 (07:03):
In a funny way, I wish this chart was more
was differently weighted, because folks, what you're seeing here is
that two thirds of the country disapproves of what he's doing. Right,
when you add the Democrats and the Independence together, you've
got basically two thirds of the country. And and he's
in a train wreck with most American voters right now.

(07:26):
I mean and and and yes, that that Republican loyalty
to Trump and a few clusters is very strong.

Speaker 2 (07:34):
Ukraine thing is strong and sticky.

Speaker 1 (07:36):
Yeah, but the Ukraine thing, Andrew, I think that goes
back to our red dawn. You know, conservative types who
are not who are not ever going to be pro
putin no matter what Trump tells them to do. On
the budget. I think they know in their gut that
this bill was a blowout of debt and deficit and
billionaire tax cuts, you know, and the ECONO me in general,

(08:01):
if you if you think that Donald Trump is going
to win on the economy, especially if these job numbers
go down, and and the problem is, I'm talking to
Scott Galoway, Assue. He saysn't really interesting. And I thought
about it from a polling perspective. After the S and P.
Right now, seven companies essentially Apple, Microsoft, you know, the fangs,

(08:26):
the Fang companies. Essentially seven companies are driving about seventy
percent of the equity in that market. And if one
of them takes a dump, it's gonna pull the economy
underwater like that day, and and I was talking about
it in perspective like what a thin what a thin

(08:46):
read Trump is holding on to for his economic you know,
the viability of his economic.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
Polling, especially considering that a lot of his voter base,
you know, we traditionally they're they're considered boomers, but they're
wealthy boomers a lot of and they are over leveraged
in these in these big companies. Yeah, you know, their
retirement plans are eyed up in one of those magnificent
seven companies. H And that that sort of scenario collapse

(09:14):
scenario for the economy would devastate Trump's voter base.

Speaker 1 (09:18):
Yeah, I mean, this isn't This isn't like Procter and Gamble,
like losing twenty five percent of execuity thanks the economy,
Meta or Apple or Nvidio. Then it's like, then the
world is going to turn in a very sour direction
very quickly.

Speaker 2 (09:35):
Not to mention, a huge number of European pensions are
invested in those companies too, so it's not just us.

Speaker 1 (09:40):
Right, Well, I'm curious what your thoughts are. I'm gonna
go back to Epstein for a minute, because I think this.
You know, this is the persistent problem. You now have
a third of his own Republican base saying they think
he's covering something up. Talk to me about where you
see I look at the Epstein matter for him on
two terms, for his for his base, it is a

(10:02):
corrosive sort of erosion and acid eating away at the base. Right.
It's not going to sweep them all into the gutter,
but it's not gonna But nothing's getting better on that front.
The other side of that, I seems to a purely
political side where his brain is broken. He can't stop
talking about it, he can't stop making it worse. Talk
to me about what you're seeing in the numbers right

(10:22):
now on Epstein and Trump.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
Yeah, Republicans have essentially turned on him over Epstein. They're
really angry about it. I'm sure they're crossing their fingers
and hoping that he'll never bring it up again, but
he consistently does so. If you look at the twenty
twenty four Trump voters, right, a ten percent of them
say that Donald Trump was involved in Epstein's crimes. How

(10:49):
you could possibly ten.

Speaker 1 (10:50):
Percent of his base he's a pedophile America? Work that out.

Speaker 2 (10:56):
And could you ever, could you have ever vote for
him again? Or imagine you know that somebody who you
think is a pedophile, right is going to endorse somebody
you I mean that should take away all his political
power over the that ten percent of Republican Yeah, I'm
not sure it does well.

Speaker 1 (11:13):
And you know what that that's in Tony McLaughlin or
Tony Forbreezio excuse me not not McLaughlin for Breezio. Uh
says that you know, ten to fifteen percent of the
base are the Qan honors and the and the people
that believe in the Epstein theory, and that's them. Let's
go back to that other side for a second, Sam
or CJ.

Speaker 2 (11:30):
I do think there's another dimension to this that we
haven't quite talked about, is you know, for on on
the political side in the House, in Congress and on
the campaign trail next year, it is going to get
increasingly difficult to defend Trump on Epstein. They will try,
they will try constantly, but you'll you'll you'll notice over

(11:50):
time that they'll be less and less enthusiastic about it
as Trump keeps bringing it up. You see this with
Mike Johnson.

Speaker 1 (11:56):
Yeah, there are reasons that you retreated at the earth
and die right right, it is.

Speaker 2 (12:02):
They will continue to defend him, but it will get
harder harder every day.

Speaker 1 (12:06):
I think something here, you know, you were pointing out
earlier that about the drift on independence on economic stuff.
Look at look at the Independent on the Party I
D column You've got You've got two to one independence
believe Trump was involved in crimes with Jeffrey Epstein two
to one.

Speaker 2 (12:22):
I think this this is also another dimension of independence.
Wanted him to focus on the economy, sure, but instead
he can't stop talking about Epstein, and he keeps introducing
all this doubt about Epstein. So you know they see it.
They categorize this as another one of the bullshit distractions,
the weird you know, conspiracy fantasies that the White House produces. Right,

(12:46):
it's he's not talking about the economy, he continues to
talk about Epstein.

Speaker 1 (12:53):
I just I think there's so much data in this
one chart about how Epstein has hurt him. You saw that,
you you sent around that thing earlier in the week
about how young voters have just bailed on Trump just
absolutely crashed out. And you look at this fifty seven
to eighteen are showing that they think he's involved with
some sort of criminality. If only eighteen percent of under

(13:16):
thirty voters believe that you're not a pedophile, okay.

Speaker 2 (13:21):
You're in huge trouble.

Speaker 1 (13:22):
You're in deep, deep, deep, deep water.

Speaker 2 (13:25):
It's also not a label that really goes away. So
Donald Trump will be remembered as a pedophile.

Speaker 1 (13:31):
Yeah, yeah, And again you know the drop of the
drop in Peter Schelling asks he's dropping with eighteen to
twenty nine, is the most of that drop from independence?
I would think so, I don't know that we have
that data, but it would it would be younger voters
tend to be less less demonstrably on the party.

Speaker 2 (13:50):
I would have to check, but yeah, logically, yes I would,
I would, I would guess.

Speaker 1 (13:56):
I mean, that's sort of my thought is that it doesn't.
It holds up that it would be. Younger voters behaviorally
are more likely to register N P A than.

Speaker 2 (14:07):
And and and and we know we know that in
the polling younger voters are are have lower and lower
approval ratings of the parties themselves, so they're put off
by the parties, especially the Democrats, which is pretty incredible
that Democrats are are leading in the generic ballot for
next year.

Speaker 1 (14:26):
Yeah, to talk to us a little bit about that, Andrew,
because the Democrats are very worried about their status. They're
very worried about They're very worried about the the the
the drift in the Democratic Party's brand, right, and and
I'm curious tell talk to us about like where, where

(14:48):
and why we've got that divergence between everybody hates the
Democratic Party, but now we've got a majority of Americans
saying their voter intention is democratic.

Speaker 2 (14:57):
Right. Yeah, it's a it's an interesting dynamic and then
bit of a contradiction, but it's true. Democrats are at
a very low approval rating Historically, people do not like
the party. They are leading by a handful of points
in most generic ballots. The I think the explanation is
that that the base is frustrated with the approach. They

(15:21):
want the party to be in power because they are
you know, you know, they're pissed off about what Trump
is doing, but the party, the party is not in
power and not doing anything in their eyes, so they're
they're irritated about the approach of the Democratic Party. And
that explains why, you know, while they'll stick with them.
They you know, are going to support them next year.

(15:42):
They really don't like you know, the sitting on your hands.

Speaker 1 (15:45):
They'd like a better they like a approach, they'd like
a fighter.

Speaker 2 (15:49):
Right, they want a more aggressive approach to Trump and
Trump's policies. But you know, uh, I won't make excuses
for the Democrats.

Speaker 1 (16:00):
Not our job.

Speaker 2 (16:01):
No, certainly not our job. But you know, it may
it may come to twenty twenty six and they're back
in power and hopefully they do something.

Speaker 1 (16:12):
Yeah, I mean, I I think Trump's I think like
a meta problem for Trump right now is the Epstein
thing has consumed his brain. It's really hurting him mentally.
He can't can't figure a way out of the box.
He's so strugg he's so struggling with it so hard
every day. But you know, Michael Wolfe was saying this morning,

(16:34):
He's like, I think Trump wants the Democrats to win.
He wants them to investigate him and impeach him so
we can be the victim again and reassemble the base
and Republicans will flock back to him. I don't think
that's out of the question, And honestly, I don't care
at that point now, paralyzing that the rest of his
bad behavior by taking control of the House. That that is,

(16:56):
that is the way, That.

Speaker 2 (16:57):
Is the key. Yeah, you know, who knows what kind
of destructive bullshit he could come up with in his
rotting brain, especially between now and you know, the next election.
He uh, you know, winning back to House is one thing.
But we do have some new pulling out of North Carolina.

Speaker 1 (17:20):
Yes, let's talk about, right, some some happy news, folks.
We're normally not a ram of sunshine here on the show,
but got some good news out of North Carolina. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
So Roy Cooper hopped in the race and he is
leading Michael Wadley. Republicans really had a rogues gallery to
choose from for this.

Speaker 1 (17:41):
Man, they really did. I was really hoping for Mark
Robinson to make a big comeback mini soldier baby. I
thought it was gonna be Laura Trump, all right, that.

Speaker 2 (17:49):
Would have been awesome. But regardless, I think this is
the sort of thing like we have to keep our
fingers crossed for and these opportunities where Republicans like you know,
this is because Tom Tillis couldn't swallow it anymore.

Speaker 1 (18:04):
Right, right, And if Tom Tillis hadn't been a chicken ship,
he could have defied Trump. But he couldn't defy Trump
because Tom Tillis is definitionally a chicken shit.

Speaker 2 (18:16):
Yeah, I mean, you know, he's up six points in
an early poll. There's not a lot of undecided.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
I'll take that.

Speaker 2 (18:28):
It could be, it could be a layup.

Speaker 1 (18:31):
Could listen. If we end up with picking up that
Senate seat. First off, it does change the power dynamic
in the Senate a little bit more, a little bit more,
a little bit more. I don't know what's going to
happen with some of these other Republican there are there's
a lot of unhappiness out in Republican land right now.
Folks have been talking to the last couple of days

(18:52):
that I know who are still in Republican polling and
media circles are uh, they're whistling past the great yard.
In some ways, it's like somebody said to me yesterday,
He's like, yah, las Avita talks so much ship and
it's a big you know, it's good, it's a good
psych head game. But he goes at some point, you know,
we've got to not have fucking reprehensible dipshits on the ballot.

(19:15):
I'm like, oh, well, you're in Trump's party, not chief.
But what else we got? Andrew?

Speaker 2 (19:21):
I mean, that was the that was the That's.

Speaker 1 (19:23):
The big, the big, the big thing of the day.
So well, I think I think we got to keep
an eye on independence, folks. We got to keep a
eye on the economic front. We got to keep an
eye on how much Trump can continue to crap the
bed on Epstein. I mean that it is. It is
a bit of a perfect storm right now.

Speaker 2 (19:39):
It is, and and you know, all these all these
issues sort of slipping away from him with Republicans, right
it threatens the coalition. It certainly threatens, you know, his
ability to crown a successor.

Speaker 1 (19:52):
I think it.

Speaker 2 (19:52):
I think it especially for jd. Vance, it hurts it
quite a lot because he's, you know, the one prime
to take this take on Trump's coalition.

Speaker 1 (20:00):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (20:01):
And the more and more Trump steps in it.

Speaker 1 (20:04):
Yeah, so that is gonna be That is going to
be the John wu action movie style, twenty seven guys
in a circle all pointing guns at each other. When
this when this thing breaks, When do you think we're
gonna start seeing maneuvers more publicly from those guys. I
think they're suppressed until pretty late.

Speaker 2 (20:23):
Yeah, I think because it's wrong.

Speaker 1 (20:24):
But but but I think the Democrats are already like
should those guys are out like buy them getting off
a space at this point.

Speaker 2 (20:32):
Yeah, I mean they have hit the ground. Uh, you know,
Gavin Newsom, Pritzker, they're they're all out there fundraising and
then talking to people. But you know, the Republican field
is going to be a blood that and you'll see
you'll see the usual clowns. Vivik Ramaswami is going to
be there. I would be surprised if you know, Christy
Nom wasn't gonna run.

Speaker 1 (20:53):
Oh, Coylewandowski is ready to run, his run his girlfriend
for president hundreds.

Speaker 2 (21:01):
You know, it's and it'll be it'll be exciting. But
I do think jd Vance is probably best positioned right
now unless there's some.

Speaker 1 (21:10):
And he's Peter, he's Peter Thiel's boy, so right.

Speaker 2 (21:13):
Yeah, let's silicon valet money.

Speaker 1 (21:17):
I don't know. All right, Well, we'll keep track of
it and uh, we'll see you again folks next week
on another intest of another edition of Behind the Numbers
with the Wilson's Andrew, I will talk to you later. Cool, Thanks, folks,