Rick Wilson

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hey, folks, I'm adjusting my camera as the ship starts.
That's very professional to me.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
Since I am not in my normal studio today.

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Hey, Andrew Wilson and I are here with you guys
as always every Friday, or almost every Friday. We can
manage it with behind the numbers and man, Andrew, you
know you and I have been talking about this for
weeks now that Trump's numbers. The people who buy into
the Trump is is is impervious that nothing touches Trump.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
It's wrong.

Speaker 3 (00:32):
His numb I think the whole concept is shattered.

Speaker 1 (00:35):
Yeah, his numbers have crashed even worse than they have
they've been. Look, folks, they were going down because of
the economy, because of Epstein, because of of of his insanity.
But now he is in a zone where he's below
where Joe Biden was in his worst times. I mean,
let's let's get to it, Andrew, Let's let's do it.

Speaker 3 (00:58):
So this is the This is the Fox pull that
that came out on Tuesday. It was running sixth of
the ninth of September, and basically it shows that fifty
respondence in this poll said that Trump is making the economy.

Speaker 4 (01:10):
Worse, and that is tell you what that number means.
That's insanity.

Speaker 3 (01:21):
There has to be a huge subset of Republicans who
are saying in this we haven't dug all the way
through the cross taps, but there has to be at
least a significant portion of Republicans who are saying that
Trump is making the economy worse and it spells doom
for for him, for his for all these Republican candidates.
I mean, we got pulling out of Virginia this week,
which we should have added that, but it had Spanberger

(01:42):
up twelve on wins some series.

Speaker 1 (01:46):
What a loss for Chris los Avita. They really find
people are gonna shoot it's this is.

Speaker 3 (01:52):
Going to drag down Republican candidates all across the board.
This is his net approval on hailing the.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
Economy again again.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
I know everybody gets very depressed about Trump's authoritarianism and
his extremism, but this is a failed presidency. This chart
is showing utterly failed, a failed presidency.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
You don't turn back from that.

Speaker 3 (02:15):
So the top line here, the slightly pinker line, is
his first term economic approval, and then the darker red
line is his current economic approval, and it's at minus
twenty two. I don't even know how to frame it.
I mean, yeah, I thought there was a floor to
this number, I really did. But we're in the basement.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
Yeah, a few weeks ago, you didn't say a few
weeks ago when we were talking about he was upside
down on inflation like thirteen points, and you were like,
it's pretty close to the bottom. I don't think there's
a I don't know.

Speaker 2 (02:46):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (02:46):
It's just I mean, if you look at also, like
the recent numbers, and this probably has a lot to
do with what's happening with jobs specifically, it is tanking
more than I can't even fathom. I it's hard to
understand that number. So two hundred and forty two days in,

(03:08):
he's down seventeen net. He's at thirty nine percent approval again,
Joe Biden numbers.

Speaker 2 (03:15):
Joe Biden number numbers.

Speaker 3 (03:18):
When you're in the thirties, your presidency's exploding, imploding.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
Yeah, I mean, he's got basically as as as the
old joker, the old Trent Lot joke that when you're
when you're down that low, it's basically immediate family members being.

Speaker 2 (03:31):
Pulled, you know.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
Yeah, yeah, that is that is a number and again,
like you just mentioned, Andrew, this is going to have
an impact on these Republican candidates for House and Senate
because you know what.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
They don't get to do.

Speaker 1 (03:44):
They don't get to blow up a bullshit and distraction
every five minutes and say, oh.

Speaker 2 (03:48):
Look over here, look over there.

Speaker 1 (03:50):
They're gonna have to go answer for people saying, hey,
why can't I get a job?

Speaker 2 (03:54):
Hey? Why? Why?

Speaker 1 (03:55):
Why is my why's my health insurance three times more expensive?
Why are my groceries going up? I mean, this is
one thing I've been telling people. I told Democrats, a
group of Democrats to the other day. Trump can spend
almost everything, but he can't spend that receipt at Amazon.

Speaker 3 (04:14):
No, No, I was. I was talking about this the
other day or just a minute ago to you. My
wife and I have a cat. We buy her Litterbucks.
We switch it out every once in a while.

Speaker 2 (04:24):
Yeah, a couple.

Speaker 3 (04:25):
Of years ago when we bought one sixteen dollars, today
when we bought one twenty five dollars model.

Speaker 2 (04:32):
Same. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (04:33):
The price of every everything is spiking enormously, and we
can see we have some we have some approval numbers
on inflation later on. So this is a little harder
to read. I would say the dark blue line is
Biden's term is approval. You can see the current week
Biden was at negative free. The pink line again is

(04:54):
Trump's first term, and the dark red line is the
current term. He's at minus eighteen for his net approval
among adults. I don't see it coming back. I can't
imagine him, you know, recovering this number. I think it's
only gonna get worse. Right, Like I said, I thought
there was a floor. It doesn't appear to be a floor.

Speaker 2 (05:18):
You know.

Speaker 1 (05:21):
Let's talk through this for a second. Because there was
always a belief way back to twenty fifteen.

Speaker 2 (05:29):
We saw it in polling, we saw it in focus
groups that Trump was.

Speaker 1 (05:32):
This economic genius, this mastermind, a negotiator, entrepreneur.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
A businessman. We need a businessman.

Speaker 1 (05:40):
I heard of a million times in focus groups. This
looks like that spell has finally collided with reality and
been broken. So my question to you is, and I'm
we're not folks, neither of us are economists, but we
play them on TV. A quarter point cut from the Fed,
and now the Fed will not be doing anything. I

(06:04):
think that was all they were going to give Trump.
Unless the economy goes absolutely belly up. They're not going
to cut a point or half a point in the
next round, which is the only I think a point
would juice the economy.

Speaker 2 (06:17):
But I don't think I have point is going to
juice the economy.

Speaker 3 (06:20):
I don't think they're willing to risk it, you know,
right with pressure already, right, he's currently furious with the FED.
Of course, of course, but it's just I don't think
it's gonna work. So I see, I saw some comments,
and we can talk about this related to this particular graph.
Here a couple of things I want to point out.

(06:41):
First of all, look at the Republicans. It's eighty eight
percent approval, ten percent disapproval. Now, I know people think,
you know, I see one comment talking about, you know,
it's a cult. You know, they'll He'll never pull off
any of these people. Yeah, that might be bad approval
from Republicans ten percent, It might be ten percent disapproval,
but Republicans are going to be extremely undermotivated to vote.

(07:04):
They're they're not going to feel like this is a
and especially since Trump's not on the ballot, you know,
I think Republicans are going to turn out I think
we'll see a shrinkage and Republican turnout in this next
election because of everything that's had and.

Speaker 2 (07:19):
He's not on the ballot. We've always talked about when Trump.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
Is off the boy, Republicans come out. When he's not
on the ballot. They're like, maybe I'll come.

Speaker 3 (07:27):
Out right And I think, you know, oh, well, here
we go. The minus thirty four on inflation and prices
in terms of approval.

Speaker 1 (07:36):
Oh my god, just guys again. A couple of weeks ago,
Andrew and I were like, yeah, that's the floor. It
can't get worse than that. That's historically bad.

Speaker 2 (07:45):
Oh no, oh, but it can get worse than that.

Speaker 3 (07:49):
People must be seeing. People must be seeing, you know,
obvious significant increases in prices on everyday items.

Speaker 2 (07:56):
They are, and.

Speaker 3 (07:58):
It's probably across the whole economy, not just in the
grocery store, but everywhere else you're shopping, right, And minus
thirty four on inflation and prices is I think, maybe
worse than Joe Biden's worst number on inflation prices.

Speaker 2 (08:14):
I think it might be.

Speaker 1 (08:15):
I have to go back and look, but I think it's,
if not, it's incredibly close to his worst number.

Speaker 3 (08:20):
He was hovering in the low thirties. I thought, for
disapproval on this.

Speaker 1 (08:25):
Just the other thing, and we don't have a chart
of it, but I was, I was just looking it
up that the new ap Nork poll, we've got fifty
one percent of Republicans say the country's on the wrong track.
Now ninety percent Democrats and independence say that. But but
if Republicans now a majority of Republicans are saying the
countries on the wrong track, we are setting up all
the predicates for a change election.

Speaker 3 (08:47):
Yes, absolutely, twenty eighteen, twenty twelve. I mean it's just ten.

Speaker 2 (08:53):
I mean it goes on.

Speaker 3 (08:54):
And on, on on and on and.

Speaker 2 (08:57):
But on inflation and price.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
If you're County Fabrizio Trump's polster, you gotta be waking
up in the morning and going, please God, in the
fucking trade war, dude.

Speaker 3 (09:08):
And he won't. He won't in the.

Speaker 2 (09:09):
Trade bar And I think way again now, I think.

Speaker 3 (09:13):
His sinility has also affected his ability to make decisions.
And here we go.

Speaker 1 (09:19):
But you know he's so angry about Fox having that
poll that we talked about in the beginning.

Speaker 2 (09:23):
You know that that is driving him up the wall.

Speaker 3 (09:26):
He's furious about and the Fox do we have a
clip of that.

Speaker 2 (09:28):
I think we have a clip of that. Let's I
think we do. I think we did. Let's play that clip.

Speaker 5 (09:32):
He pulling that doesn't pull well in the economy. The
recent Fox pulling said fifty two percent say the economy
is worse under this administration. You've got unemployment at the
highest rate in four years. Groceries made a big jump
in the last term. So how is that you're looking
forward with these plans that you just talked about. When
will people feel that mess?

Speaker 6 (09:52):
Well, when the facts you start opening, I mean right
now we're building them. And you know, Fox polling, I
have to tell you, I've told you before, it's the
worst pulling I've had I had. It's always I mean
during the election they had been winning by a little bit,
not by a by a massive amount. And Fox polling,
I've told Rupert Murdoch go get yourself a new polster
because he stinks. And this is for years now.

Speaker 3 (10:15):
It is clearly extremely bitter about these polls. Scared what
they mean. You know, we we know Trump pays attention
to polling obsessivelysly uh. He cares about what people think
of him. And you know we've talked about this before.
The Fox poll is actually a high quality poll.

Speaker 1 (10:35):
Ironically, it is. Actually they do an actually legitimate poll.

Speaker 3 (10:39):
They do a great job, and he hates it because
you know, they're sticking it to him. And I don't think,
I don't think that any kind of influence he puts
on you know, he's pressuring all these media companies to
stop saying bad things about him. He'll never escape the economy.

Speaker 2 (10:59):
You can't.

Speaker 3 (11:00):
You can't force the economy to change with you know,
standard authoritarian tactics. It just doesn't work.

Speaker 1 (11:08):
No, the economy still, the economy still has rules of
its own that that are not amenable to to you know,
daddy saying thou shalt improve. So I think one thing
a lot of people have been asking me about, and
we don't have a ton of numbers on this yet,
but but the Charlie Kirk story, as you and I

(11:30):
talked about last time, would inevitably fade, would inevitably leave
the wider public consciousness and become a sort of bespoke
internal Republican issue is part of that, just because the
economy and Epstein are such unspeakably big issues now for
for Trump, is it is it?

Speaker 2 (11:50):
I think.

Speaker 3 (11:52):
He can't outrun Epstein. No matter what he does, He's
never going to dodge it. And it keeps coming back
over and over again. You know, we'll be talking about
Epstein for the next his whole term, I think. And
the thing I think, the thing about the Kirk story
is that they sullied it with their own you know, intentions,

(12:16):
their own uh you know, they they used it as
a as a as a hammer against you know, liberals
and leftists or whatever. I think they ruined it for themselves.
They didn't you know, I don't think Trump gives a
damn about Charlie Kirk, to be honest with you. You know,
I saw the article the next day that said, you know,
Charlie Kirk was like one of the family. And they're

(12:39):
doing the memorial. The poster for the memorial leesn't even
have Charlie Kirk's face on it. It has Donald Trump's face.

Speaker 1 (12:46):
Trump Show, and and and the irony of of all
of it was always going to be this Trump's ego
no matter what.

Speaker 2 (12:58):
The political utility has advisors.

Speaker 1 (13:00):
We're telling him and are telling him that Kirk's death
had and they are telling him over and over again.
It has enormous political utility. We can talk about that
in a minute. I want to get to that in
a second. But at the end of the day, America
has a short attention span. It's what it doesn't have
a short attention span on is that you go into

(13:20):
Target or Walmart or the grocery store, or you go
on Amazon and you want to order something, and you
can't spin that inflation is low. You can't spin and
that people are getting jobs. You can't spin that the
economy is prospering. It's all a lie.

Speaker 3 (13:39):
And so Carol said, just now he is ring the economy.
I think that's I think it's important to sort of
dissect that it is Trump himself who has stepped on
the economy. If you just let it go, if you
just let it go, you know, we would still be
up and up and up and up. He did it himself.

Speaker 1 (13:57):
I mean, the idea that the idea that Joe Biden's
economy was somehow this absolute horror show was always then sure,
but and look it was imperfect, and it had a
lot of areas that could have used improvement.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
But it wasn't small yet nineteen ninety one, No.

Speaker 3 (14:15):
We had we had, we had we had a very
bad inflationary cycle that people were feeling, you know, in
their pocketbook.

Speaker 2 (14:22):
Right.

Speaker 3 (14:23):
So this, this chart is Trump's leadership qualities have declined
since his second term began in January. So people are
seeing him as less honest and trustworthy, which why anyone
thought he was remotely honest or trustworthy to begin with.
Is is shocked.

Speaker 2 (14:41):
To me but a damn mystery.

Speaker 3 (14:43):
He's now at He's now at minus twenty seven. And
there's a there's a faded red line at the top here.
I don't know if you can see it, but it's
is Trump a strong leader? So in his inauguration he
was up at twenty five plus twenty five on is
Trump a strong leader? He's now a plus one. People.
The image of Trump as the invincible teflon Don is

(15:07):
fading very quickly. I think it has to do with
his age. I think it has to do with him
fucking up the economy. I think it has to do
with Epstein. I think he is I think we will
end Trump's term with with the view of history that
will stick to him permanently, which is a failed presidency
in every way, right.

Speaker 1 (15:29):
And I think I think one of the things that
in the beginning of my career in the late eighties
in politics, mid late eighties, the knock on effect of
Jimmy Carter's one term, and set aside that Jimmy Carter
was a fine person as a man, he had a

(15:50):
disastrous presidency, terribly an economic an economic pencer, the Iran collapse,
the perception that America was off the rail. It's it
was in all the Poland, and that perception that he
was a president who was going to come in clean
things up after Watergate was a very powerful brand in

(16:12):
the beginning. But once Carter lost and lost decisively on
the economy, it made the losses on foreign policy, lost confidence,
and then it stayed in this sort of public consciousness
and the branding of the Democratic Party for fifteen years,

(16:34):
because you have two terms of Reagan, one term of
my old boss, and even Bill Clinton was a response
in the Democratic Party to Jimmy Carter at the time.
And so there's a possibility here that in this in
this very consequential and dangerous fight against authoritarianism, because folks

(16:57):
don't mistake that he can be weak and also be dangerous.

Speaker 3 (17:02):
Yes, absolutely, I think he's I think he's more dangerous
the weaker he feels that he is, you know, because
these pulling numbers are so bad. And this is not
just the only thing, you know, there are a lot
of other factors out there that are making Trump feel
like he is fighting in the desperate corner like a dog.
As he would say. I think the more he feels desperate,

(17:27):
the more dangerous he will get.

Speaker 1 (17:29):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (17:29):
He will continue to lash out at anyone near him
or or you know, anyone he feels like is remotely
criticizing him, and it gets.

Speaker 1 (17:39):
Worse, right and and so if the economy, as we
can see from all these numbers, hurts him, and Epstein
hurts him. As I pointed out the other day, there's
one thing we know about the man. It's despite all
his transgressions, outraged, to spite all of his abuses of
power and attacks on the constition in the country, Donald
Trump is the snibbling, whiny bitches in the Epstein files.

Speaker 3 (17:58):
You know, he's so thin skinned it's unbelievable. I mean,
he can't handle a little light mockery. He has to
say they have to cancel the late night shows, you know.
And this all goes back to the White House correspondence Dinner.
It's such a fucking bitch.

Speaker 1 (18:13):
That Barack Obama triggered him so badly that he's still
playing out that psychodrama. I'm sorry Donald that mommy didn't
love you and never hugged you. But but you know,
here we are so, I mean we and we saw
a lot of of We saw a lot of these
people that have perceived Trump from the beginning as the strong,

(18:35):
powerful leader, They're now starting to watch the horizon. It's
why the sudden uptick in JD. Van's appearance is on
the Fox News program Donald.

Speaker 2 (18:46):
Joseph Stalin, Right, it is.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
It's folks, if you haven't watched Death of Stalin, it's
a it's a hilarious family comedy. Yeah, Donald Trump's that number,
that red line is that's a tell.

Speaker 3 (19:01):
You know, this is so. I think I was reading
the other day about the Shavron and his kings does
and you know, the the authoritarian the mindset when you're
when you're a leader is having failing health is to
hide it. They're they're going to hide his his decline
as much as they can. And and you know, in
many ways, Joe Biden's decline was sort of hidden from

(19:23):
a lot of people, although it was somewhat evident to
most people. Uh it. They will hide this until the
crisis point. They will hide until Trump is Trump's health
is completely failed.

Speaker 1 (19:39):
You know.

Speaker 3 (19:39):
The presidency wears on on the president.

Speaker 2 (19:43):
Oh something.

Speaker 3 (19:45):
The I think the earliest pattern in politics that I
could spot was the white hair on Obama's head by
the end of his second term.

Speaker 2 (19:53):
Yeah. Yeah, it was young George George George W. Bush.
I remember on the campaign trail in two thousand with him,
and it was this young guy.

Speaker 1 (20:04):
He look he was forty, and when he left the
White House eight years later, he looked like he was seventy.

Speaker 3 (20:09):
It's bite being the most indolent and lazy president we've
ever had. It will wear on Trump especially, Yes, any
kind of critique makes him unhappy and slowly wears in
his fragile brain. Yes, he will continue to age, and
they will hide it to the last moment. But people
will start to notice over time more and more that

(20:32):
Trump is declining and falling apart. He's gonna sort of
wither like blow away in the wind at some point.

Speaker 2 (20:37):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (20:38):
And I still believe, and this is a topic for
another day, I still believe there's no substitute in the
emotional chemistry for Republicans.

Speaker 2 (20:48):
For Trump. JD.

Speaker 1 (20:49):
Vans is like he's committing to the bit, he's playing
the gig. But I don't think there is a there
is a the same level of like weird emotional alchemy
that Trump is allways have with the Republican base. It's
so generous Vance.

Speaker 3 (21:04):
I don't think Vance will ever catch fire with MAGA
like Trump did one because I see Vance and I
he's he just seems disingenuous and not that Trump is
an honest guy, but there was a perception that he
was a truth tailler. Vance does not have that same

(21:25):
same quality.

Speaker 2 (21:27):
Somebody who's changed their name four times? Can you really
trust them?

Speaker 3 (21:30):
Can you? He also doesn't have the support of the
MAGA influencer structure that Trump has. You know, there are
some who who say Vance is their guy, but there
are many others who.

Speaker 1 (21:44):
Are, Oh, there are a lot of them waiting waiting
for you know, somebody else in the field who they
and and I will tell you I had a case
made to me this morning by a really smart person
who said, watch Erica Kirk is going to run for
US Senate.

Speaker 2 (22:03):
Christ completely goodbye.

Speaker 3 (22:06):
I could by that.

Speaker 2 (22:07):
Yeah, I mean, ambition is a powerful drug, folks.

Speaker 1 (22:10):
In politics, and and once you reach a point where
the old king cannot yield.

Speaker 2 (22:18):
The sword, things change, and they think they.

Speaker 3 (22:22):
Can change change. And you know we talked about this.
Trump is Lenin jd Vance could be Stalin. I just
have to stop that from happening. Yeah, that would be
the worst possible outcome.

Speaker 1 (22:37):
Yeah, and and Vance has a lot of infrastructure with
Peter Teele and Elon and the and the Silicon Valley bros.
But he's he again, folks, This is again a guy
who is committing to the bit.

Speaker 2 (22:50):
He's playing the role.

Speaker 1 (22:52):
But everybody who knows him and I know him, sent't
that guy.

Speaker 2 (22:57):
He's role playing. It's the fake organ.

Speaker 3 (22:59):
He's a chamelee in it is a chameleon. He'll he'll
be whatever whatever he thinks is going to get him over.

Speaker 2 (23:07):
Well, folks, what else we got Andrew? You got anything else?

Speaker 1 (23:12):
Just again, Andrew's not like given to a lot of
exaggeration when he's like bull with shit. You can't believe
these effing numbers. Pay attention because I think the thing I.

Speaker 3 (23:21):
Think blows me the way the most is that we're
not even a year in. You know, Joe Biden's numbers
were such a good point steady ish in the first
two years, and they tanked in the second two. We
are we are very early on to be where we
are in Trump's numbers, and I think it is worth
watching how he fares going forward. I can't express like

(23:46):
I really thought there was a floor. It's disappeared, it's vanished.
And that tells me. That tells me that people who
voted for him in twenty twenty four now realize, Wow,
what a big mistake. He's actually a fool and doesn't
know what he's doing, and he's been lying to us
this whole time. And you can see that in the

(24:06):
perception of his honesty down to twenty seven points or something,
you know, and people don't like to be lied to.

Speaker 2 (24:13):
By the way, think about that.

Speaker 1 (24:15):
If his perception of being an honest I guess it's
what's honest and truthful or whatever the phrase they use
in the polling is. If it's twenty seven percent, folks,
by inference, that means that roughly forty five percent of
Republicans do not believe.

Speaker 2 (24:31):
He's honest and truthful anyway. All right, everybody.

Speaker 1 (24:37):
Well, listen, folks, we're in a dark place as a country.
But the economy and Epstein are still the kryptonite of
Donald Trump. They are still riding on him and still
causing his behavior to be insane, and that is hurting
him further. We're in a doom loop with Donald right now,
and at the Lincoln Project we're trying to push that

(24:58):
doom loop forward. So I will see you guys next Friday,
and y'all have a good weekend, go love on your
families and take a break from all this. I really
recommend pull out of the social media for a day
or two. Yeah, we'll still fret your brain in a
very affirmative and positive way, all right, folks, And by
the way, seeing their resetting brains, we're gonna roll out

(25:19):
today from the show on.

Speaker 2 (25:21):
A little piece of video. We greeted Donald Trump when
he returned to Washington last night.

Speaker 7 (25:25):
So yeah, Oh, it's an old trick. The president's in
trouble at home, goes abroad to change the subject. Nice
try Donald, it's not working. You can't ide from the
Epstein files. England fired their US ambassador over his Epstein connections.
Was that a hoax, Donald, you'd love to fire people.

(25:49):
And Bondi said she'd released the Epstein files, So did
Cash Ptel, so did Dan Bongino. But where are the
Epstein files? Why don't you fire them? Donald? Is it
that they know too much? Are you afraid they'll talk?
Is that why Jeffrey Epstein's child sex trafficker girlfriend was
moved to a club fed with yoga classes. Who's trying

(26:12):
to keep her quiet? Donald? Ask anybody, ask the King
of England. Everybody wants the Epstein files released except you. Donald, Now,
why is that