September 3, 2025 • 12 mins
What are the most dangerous places on Earth to live today, and why do people still call them home? In this episode, we explore regions plagued by extreme natural disasters, high crime rates, political instability, and harsh environmental conditions. From earthquake-prone cities and conflict zones to toxic environments and crime capitals, we examine the daily risks people face and the resilience that keeps communities alive. Tune in to uncover the hidden realities of survival in the world’s most perilous places.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to the debate today. We're trying to dive a
bit deeper, you know, move beyond infographics to really unpack
the profound complexity shaping global stability in twenty twenty five.
So the core question we're grappling with is this is
the main driver of escalating global instability well, the evolving
(00:30):
nature of terrorism and its complex connections, or is it
more about the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters
and the internal displacement that follows. Right I'm going to
argue that it's the deliberate evolving threat of terrorism, especially
how it links up with organized crime, that's the more
active and frankly, it's strategically complex force messing with global
(00:52):
order right now.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
And I'll be offering a well, a contrasting view. I'm
asserting that the overwhelming skis and the sort of compounding
effects of climate driven natural disasters and the mass internal
displacement that results actually represent a more fundamental and widespread
(01:14):
challenge to human well being and global stability overall.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
Okay, so my analysis, it really reveals that global stability
is predominantly challenged by this evolving nature of terrorism. What's
really striking isn't just you know the rise in terrorism deaths,
but how much more concentrated and lethal attacks have become so.
In twenty twenty three, for instance, we saw a pretty
(01:37):
significant twenty two percent jump in deaths. That's the highest
level since twenty seventeen, even though the actual number of
incidents dropped, which points to a shift towards more impactful,
deadlier strikes. The average was about two point five deaths
per attack last year, up from one point six and
twenty twenty two. And the epicenter it's clearly shifted. It's
(01:59):
moved from the Middle East in North Africa to Sub
Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel region. That area now accounts
for almost half of all terrorism deaths globally. And crucially,
there's this strong and i'd say deepening correlation between organized
crime and terrorism. It's most obvious in the Sahel groups
like j and i AM that's al Qaeda's affiliate there,
(02:19):
and the Islamic State. They're exploiting illicit economies, things like
cattle rustling, artisanal gold mining, drug trafficking, kidnapping for ransom.
This isn't just about funding, you know, It's really about
establishing territorial control, replacing the state kidnapping incidents in the Sahel,
for example, they surged from just seventy eight in twenty
(02:41):
seventeen to over one thousand and twenty twenty three. So
while terrorism might kill fewer people at absolute numbers than say,
other forms of violence, its unique threat lies in its
profound psychological and social impact. The October seventh attack showed
this starkly. They dramatically increased public fear and just wiped
(03:01):
on support for peace processes. It's targeted psychological warfare, often
thriving in conflict zones, and it actively erodes societal cohesion
and the legitimacy of the state.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Okay, I come at this from a different perspective. While
the lethality of terrorism is undeniably a serious concern, I
really believe the more pervasive and frankly escalating threat to
global stability stems from the sheer scale of natural disasters
and internal displacement. My research it strongly suggests that extreme
(03:36):
weather events aren't just a top immediate risk for twenty
twenty five, but they're also seen as a dominant long
term risk over the next decade, right alongside things like
biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. The data indicates that climate
change is making these billion dollar disasters far more frequent.
It's gotten to the point where the time between such
events has shrunk to less than two weeks in twenty
(03:58):
twenty four. That's a well a start contrast to nearly
two months back in nineteen eighty one.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
That's a dramatic change, it.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Is, and consider the immense scale of these humanitarian crises.
You've got six million internally displaced people in Sudan, one
point two millions still displaced in Pakistan just from the
twenty twenty two floods, and many of those were forced
to flee again in twenty twenty three. The overwhelming majority
of forcibly displaced people, they stay within their home countries,
(04:27):
often for years. It becomes this sort of invisible crisis,
and this puts just immense strain on national resources, on development,
even in states that seem relatively stable. What's more, existing
conflicts can profoundly increase vulnerability to disaster displacement. The Derna
floods in Libya tragically exemplified this. You had decades of
(04:50):
underfunded infrastructure, made much worse by the civil war, and
that contributed directly to the catastrophic dam bursts that displace thousands.
This is a powerful illustration I think of how environmental
and conflict factors intertwine to create a systemic breakdown. It
impacts human well being on an unparalleled scale, and I
(05:10):
believe poses a more fundamental challenge to global stability.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
That's a compelling argument about the scale, definitely, and the
Derna example really does highlight that devastating impact. However, I
still maintain the terrorism represents a more deliberate and active
form of destabilization. My observation is that groups like JANM
they aren't just reacting to environmental factors. They are actively
(05:36):
expanding territorial control. They are co opting illicit economies like
gold mining in places like Burkina Fosso, and this has
led to that nation becoming the country with the highest
impact from terrorism for the first time in twenty twenty three,
with death jumping by sixty eight percent. This calculated erosion
of governance, especially in already fragile states, it creates a deeper,
(05:58):
more intractable kind of instabile dissenter. How does a state
effectively respond to these massive environmental events you've highlighted When
it's very governing capacity has been actively dismantled by deliberate
terrorist action, I mean, creating the very vacuum in which
these groups thrive.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Yeah, that's a critical question, and I absolutely agree that
terrorism actively undermines governance. But I'm just not convinced that
deliberate destabilization by terrorist groups is the primary driver. When
you're faced with the sheer volume of people affected by
natural disasters, that volume just far outweighs those directly impacted
(06:37):
by terrorism. Even if, yes, the latter is more deliberate.
Consider that floods and storms, they continue to cause the
most displacements globally. In Africa alone, cyclone Freddy triggered one
point four million movements across six countries in twenty twenty three,
just one event. This kind of mass displacement creates chronic
(06:57):
humanitarian crises, infrastructural damage that strains even relatively stable states,
sometimes to their breaking point. My perspective is that these
extreme weather events they amplify other risks. They create a
cascading effect that even you know, really effective counter terrorism
efforts can't fully mitigate. How can you implement robust counter
(07:19):
terrorism strategies when entire regions are facing repeated climate shocks
like Pakistan experiencing repeated floods year after year, or Afghanistan
grappling with earthquakes and prolonged droughts. The systemic nature of
climate driven instability creating these massive, often invisible, internally displaced populations.
(07:39):
It requires a level of resource allocation and global cooperation
that right now dwarfs the response to terrorism.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
I see the challenge you're posing regarding the overwhelming nature
of climate shocks, and you're absolutely right they demand massive resources. However,
let me offer a slightly different perspective on that interconnectedness
you mentioned. Position is that the vulnerabilities that natural disasters
exploit are often exacerbated or maybe even created by pre
existing conflicts and a lack of effective governance, conditions that
(08:11):
terrorism actively exploits and perpetuates. What I've observed is that
ninety eight percent of terrorism deaths in twenty twenty three
occurring countries already experiencing some level of conflict. Right, the
overlap is clear, exactly, and in non OECD countries, factors
like political terror, lower respect for human rights, corruption, these
things are significantly correlated with terrorism. Take the collapse of
(08:34):
the twenty fifteen Molli Peace Agreement after UN forces withdrew
it directly contributed to intensified fighting and one hundred and
fifty two thousand conflict displacements just in twenty twenty three. So,
while you emphasize the sheer scale of climate shocks, I
would argue that the deliberate breakdown of governance by groups
like J and M often precedes and amplifies that scale.
(08:57):
It turns what might be an unfortunate natural event into
a catastrophic systemic failure, precisely because it makes populations far
more susceptible to all forms of instability.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
I understand your argument about how terrorism exploits and certainly
worsens existing vulnerabilities, and the statistics you cite on conflict
and terrorism deaths are well, they're certainly impactful. However, I
have to respectfully push back on the idea that terrorism
is the primary driver, especially when we look at the
longer term outlook. My assessment, looking at global risks up
(09:28):
to twenty thirty five, it's just dominated by environmental factors.
Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, critical changes to earth systems. These
aren't just exacerbating factors anymore. They are becoming primary drivers.
Of societal upheaval on a truly global scale. The Derna floods,
again are such as stark illustration. Yes, years of conflict,
(09:49):
weakened infrastructure, no question, but the ultimate catastrophic impact was
a natural disaster of such force it displaced tens of thousands.
Instantly advocate, what resilience does the state we truly have
against a climate shock of that magnitude, even with robust governance,
when the sheer force of the event just overwhelms any
(10:09):
existing system. The systemic nature of climate driven instability creating
these massive, often invisible, internally displaced populations, it just presents
a more intractable long term challenge. And look, if you're
finding this discussion valuable, please do consider giving us a
five star rating. It really helps others find the show okay.
While my position remains that the evolving interconnected threat of terrorism,
(10:33):
especially it's nexus with organized crime and its profound psychological impact,
represents a primary active destabilizer. Terrorism deliberately seeks to fracture governance,
to break down social cohesion, often leveraging pre existing conflicts.
That makes it a conscious and strategic threat to the
international system. The deliberate actions of these groups to exploit
(10:56):
and create chaos, which we see so vividly in the Sahel.
I believe we demand our focused attention as the most
dynamic and immediate challenge to stability, and I maintain that
the escalating and compounding crisis of natural disasters and the
resulting internal displacement amplified by climate change, constitutes a more
(11:17):
fundamental and pervasive threat to global stability and human well being.
These broad scale environmental shifts, they just overwhelm existing systems,
They create widespread and enduring vulnerability, and they often go
unaddressed because of their sheer scale. And as I mentioned,
the invisibility of the internally displaced, the systemic nature of
(11:40):
these climate risks I feel present a more intractable long
term foundational challenge.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Right, So, both of us clearly agree that global stability
is facing well immense pressure for multiple directions, and that
these issues are deeply interconnected. They often feed into one
another in really complex ways. Absolutely, and while we approach
the question of the primary driver from different vantage points,
I think the depth of these challenges really underscores the
(12:07):
value of considering multiple perspectives. We encourage you to reflect
on these multifaceted global risks, and the profound impacts they
have on our world. There's certainly more to explore
Welcome to the debate today. We're trying to dive a
bit deeper, you know, move beyond infographics to really unpack
the profound complexity shaping global stability in twenty twenty five.
So the core question we're grappling with is this is
the main driver of escalating global instability well, the evolving
(00:30):
nature of terrorism and its complex connections, or is it
more about the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters
and the internal displacement that follows. Right I'm going to
argue that it's the deliberate evolving threat of terrorism, especially
how it links up with organized crime, that's the more
active and frankly, it's strategically complex force messing with global
(00:52):
order right now.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
And I'll be offering a well, a contrasting view. I'm
asserting that the overwhelming skis and the sort of compounding
effects of climate driven natural disasters and the mass internal
displacement that results actually represent a more fundamental and widespread
(01:14):
challenge to human well being and global stability overall.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
Okay, so my analysis, it really reveals that global stability
is predominantly challenged by this evolving nature of terrorism. What's
really striking isn't just you know the rise in terrorism deaths,
but how much more concentrated and lethal attacks have become so.
In twenty twenty three, for instance, we saw a pretty
(01:37):
significant twenty two percent jump in deaths. That's the highest
level since twenty seventeen, even though the actual number of
incidents dropped, which points to a shift towards more impactful,
deadlier strikes. The average was about two point five deaths
per attack last year, up from one point six and
twenty twenty two. And the epicenter it's clearly shifted. It's
(01:59):
moved from the Middle East in North Africa to Sub
Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel region. That area now accounts
for almost half of all terrorism deaths globally. And crucially,
there's this strong and i'd say deepening correlation between organized
crime and terrorism. It's most obvious in the Sahel groups
like j and i AM that's al Qaeda's affiliate there,
(02:19):
and the Islamic State. They're exploiting illicit economies, things like
cattle rustling, artisanal gold mining, drug trafficking, kidnapping for ransom.
This isn't just about funding, you know, It's really about
establishing territorial control, replacing the state kidnapping incidents in the Sahel,
for example, they surged from just seventy eight in twenty
(02:41):
seventeen to over one thousand and twenty twenty three. So
while terrorism might kill fewer people at absolute numbers than say,
other forms of violence, its unique threat lies in its
profound psychological and social impact. The October seventh attack showed
this starkly. They dramatically increased public fear and just wiped
(03:01):
on support for peace processes. It's targeted psychological warfare, often
thriving in conflict zones, and it actively erodes societal cohesion
and the legitimacy of the state.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Okay, I come at this from a different perspective. While
the lethality of terrorism is undeniably a serious concern, I
really believe the more pervasive and frankly escalating threat to
global stability stems from the sheer scale of natural disasters
and internal displacement. My research it strongly suggests that extreme
(03:36):
weather events aren't just a top immediate risk for twenty
twenty five, but they're also seen as a dominant long
term risk over the next decade, right alongside things like
biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. The data indicates that climate
change is making these billion dollar disasters far more frequent.
It's gotten to the point where the time between such
events has shrunk to less than two weeks in twenty
(03:58):
twenty four. That's a well a start contrast to nearly
two months back in nineteen eighty one.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
That's a dramatic change, it.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Is, and consider the immense scale of these humanitarian crises.
You've got six million internally displaced people in Sudan, one
point two millions still displaced in Pakistan just from the
twenty twenty two floods, and many of those were forced
to flee again in twenty twenty three. The overwhelming majority
of forcibly displaced people, they stay within their home countries,
(04:27):
often for years. It becomes this sort of invisible crisis,
and this puts just immense strain on national resources, on development,
even in states that seem relatively stable. What's more, existing
conflicts can profoundly increase vulnerability to disaster displacement. The Derna
floods in Libya tragically exemplified this. You had decades of
(04:50):
underfunded infrastructure, made much worse by the civil war, and
that contributed directly to the catastrophic dam bursts that displace thousands.
This is a powerful illustration I think of how environmental
and conflict factors intertwine to create a systemic breakdown. It
impacts human well being on an unparalleled scale, and I
(05:10):
believe poses a more fundamental challenge to global stability.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
That's a compelling argument about the scale, definitely, and the
Derna example really does highlight that devastating impact. However, I
still maintain the terrorism represents a more deliberate and active
form of destabilization. My observation is that groups like JANM
they aren't just reacting to environmental factors. They are actively
(05:36):
expanding territorial control. They are co opting illicit economies like
gold mining in places like Burkina Fosso, and this has
led to that nation becoming the country with the highest
impact from terrorism for the first time in twenty twenty three,
with death jumping by sixty eight percent. This calculated erosion
of governance, especially in already fragile states, it creates a deeper,
(05:58):
more intractable kind of instabile dissenter. How does a state
effectively respond to these massive environmental events you've highlighted When
it's very governing capacity has been actively dismantled by deliberate
terrorist action, I mean, creating the very vacuum in which
these groups thrive.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Yeah, that's a critical question, and I absolutely agree that
terrorism actively undermines governance. But I'm just not convinced that
deliberate destabilization by terrorist groups is the primary driver. When
you're faced with the sheer volume of people affected by
natural disasters, that volume just far outweighs those directly impacted
(06:37):
by terrorism. Even if, yes, the latter is more deliberate.
Consider that floods and storms, they continue to cause the
most displacements globally. In Africa alone, cyclone Freddy triggered one
point four million movements across six countries in twenty twenty three,
just one event. This kind of mass displacement creates chronic
(06:57):
humanitarian crises, infrastructural damage that strains even relatively stable states,
sometimes to their breaking point. My perspective is that these
extreme weather events they amplify other risks. They create a
cascading effect that even you know, really effective counter terrorism
efforts can't fully mitigate. How can you implement robust counter
(07:19):
terrorism strategies when entire regions are facing repeated climate shocks
like Pakistan experiencing repeated floods year after year, or Afghanistan
grappling with earthquakes and prolonged droughts. The systemic nature of
climate driven instability creating these massive, often invisible, internally displaced populations.
(07:39):
It requires a level of resource allocation and global cooperation
that right now dwarfs the response to terrorism.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
I see the challenge you're posing regarding the overwhelming nature
of climate shocks, and you're absolutely right they demand massive resources. However,
let me offer a slightly different perspective on that interconnectedness
you mentioned. Position is that the vulnerabilities that natural disasters
exploit are often exacerbated or maybe even created by pre
existing conflicts and a lack of effective governance, conditions that
(08:11):
terrorism actively exploits and perpetuates. What I've observed is that
ninety eight percent of terrorism deaths in twenty twenty three
occurring countries already experiencing some level of conflict. Right, the
overlap is clear, exactly, and in non OECD countries, factors
like political terror, lower respect for human rights, corruption, these
things are significantly correlated with terrorism. Take the collapse of
(08:34):
the twenty fifteen Molli Peace Agreement after UN forces withdrew
it directly contributed to intensified fighting and one hundred and
fifty two thousand conflict displacements just in twenty twenty three. So,
while you emphasize the sheer scale of climate shocks, I
would argue that the deliberate breakdown of governance by groups
like J and M often precedes and amplifies that scale.
(08:57):
It turns what might be an unfortunate natural event into
a catastrophic systemic failure, precisely because it makes populations far
more susceptible to all forms of instability.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
I understand your argument about how terrorism exploits and certainly
worsens existing vulnerabilities, and the statistics you cite on conflict
and terrorism deaths are well, they're certainly impactful. However, I
have to respectfully push back on the idea that terrorism
is the primary driver, especially when we look at the
longer term outlook. My assessment, looking at global risks up
(09:28):
to twenty thirty five, it's just dominated by environmental factors.
Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, critical changes to earth systems. These
aren't just exacerbating factors anymore. They are becoming primary drivers.
Of societal upheaval on a truly global scale. The Derna floods,
again are such as stark illustration. Yes, years of conflict,
(09:49):
weakened infrastructure, no question, but the ultimate catastrophic impact was
a natural disaster of such force it displaced tens of thousands.
Instantly advocate, what resilience does the state we truly have
against a climate shock of that magnitude, even with robust governance,
when the sheer force of the event just overwhelms any
(10:09):
existing system. The systemic nature of climate driven instability creating
these massive, often invisible, internally displaced populations, it just presents
a more intractable long term challenge. And look, if you're
finding this discussion valuable, please do consider giving us a
five star rating. It really helps others find the show okay.
While my position remains that the evolving interconnected threat of terrorism,
(10:33):
especially it's nexus with organized crime and its profound psychological impact,
represents a primary active destabilizer. Terrorism deliberately seeks to fracture governance,
to break down social cohesion, often leveraging pre existing conflicts.
That makes it a conscious and strategic threat to the
international system. The deliberate actions of these groups to exploit
(10:56):
and create chaos, which we see so vividly in the Sahel.
I believe we demand our focused attention as the most
dynamic and immediate challenge to stability, and I maintain that
the escalating and compounding crisis of natural disasters and the
resulting internal displacement amplified by climate change, constitutes a more
(11:17):
fundamental and pervasive threat to global stability and human well being.
These broad scale environmental shifts, they just overwhelm existing systems,
They create widespread and enduring vulnerability, and they often go
unaddressed because of their sheer scale. And as I mentioned,
the invisibility of the internally displaced, the systemic nature of
(11:40):
these climate risks I feel present a more intractable long
term foundational challenge.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Right, So, both of us clearly agree that global stability
is facing well immense pressure for multiple directions, and that
these issues are deeply interconnected. They often feed into one
another in really complex ways. Absolutely, and while we approach
the question of the primary driver from different vantage points,
I think the depth of these challenges really underscores the
(12:07):
value of considering multiple perspectives. We encourage you to reflect
on these multifaceted global risks, and the profound impacts they
have on our world. There's certainly more to explore
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