#305: Market Update Mar 25 – Darwin Leads Growth, Melbourne Posts Another Increase & Interest Rate Uncertainty Amid Global Tariff Concerns

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This week, Mike and Cate tackle the data! Nationally, median dwelling values have strengthened, recording 0.4% for the month. But it is Darwin who's stolen the show with a full 100 basis points rise in March. Adelaide continues to impress, showing strong resilience. The Duo ponder the drivers behind the continued performance of the City of Churches and they also note that Hobart has been the only negative-performing capital city for the month.

Cate highlights the difference between "all dwellings" vs "houses", and illustrates the importance of segmentation.

Contrasting the long term performance of our two March extremes is interesting. Cate and Mike break down the past ten years' of dwelling values, noting that Hobart comes in at number three with a growth rate of 86.7%, whilst Darwin's ten year performance is negative at -1.0%.

Regional performance is noteworthy too. Recent years have amplified regional growth, particularly following COVID. However, the top performers over the last twelve months are interesting. Central Highlands in QLD is home to a lot of mining towns, and the growth has the Duo questioning whether it's sustainable long-term.

"Why has regional Victoria done so much better than Melbourne?"  Cate walks the listeners through some of the challenges that Melbourne faced, and also some of the significant drivers over the COVID lockdown years throughout many different Victorian regions.

Rents have almost normalised thanks to higher household formation rates and a slow-down on overseas migration. Most of our capital city house rental movement now sits within the target inflation band; a stark contrast from the heady past three years. 

Gross rental yields have been gradually increasing in some locations, particularly Melbourne, but Mike and Cate consider some locations around the country that currently deliver positive yield. Two include some parts of Darwin, regional NT, and some parts of regional WA. But as Cate eludes, reward and risk often go hand in hand.

Total listings data is often intriguing when contrasted against "old listings". The data sourced from SQM suggests supply and demand is particularly imbalanced in Darwin this month. Old listings support the theory that buyers are purchasing 180-day+ stock aggressively.  Like we saw for Perth in recent past years, could Darwin be exhibiting similar leading indicators for a surge?

Unemployment remains tight and the most recent figures suggest the unemployment count is lower than anticipated. 

The last two weeks have been dominated by newsfeeds about Donald Trump's tariff controls, and markets have exhibited several shocks to say the least. Mike and Cate delve into some of the comments from our own RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock in response to questions about how Australia will fare. Specifically, the Duo cite some of Governor Bullock's remarks about inflation, interest rates and employment.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/04/14/ep-305-march-2025-market-update/