The host of Tune In's Big 12 Radio on Utah's season opener vs UCLA, Over/Under on Devon Dampier's TD's and INT's, How much scheduling will matter in Big 12 title race + more
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
No, you're tuned to the Shan O'Connell Show from the
Murdoch Chevrolet Studio of ESPN seven hundred and one a
half am show.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Welcome back to the Shawn O'Connell Show, our.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Number three on a Thursday, and we welcome Ari Tempkin,
Big twelve Insider.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
All right, welcome for the show. How are you, sir?
I'm great, Ocy.
Speaker 4 (00:34):
How are you buddy doing?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
All right?
Speaker 4 (00:36):
Man?
Speaker 3 (00:36):
We're what twenty three days away from Utah kicking off.
It's college football season. Exciting times here in Salt Lake City.
You know how it is when it's just practice time.
There's optimism. Everyone's brimming with it. And a lot of
Ute fans are feeling extra optimism because depending on what
sportsbook you look at. But Vegas is starting to show
(00:58):
a little bit of confidence that the Utes are going
to have a bounce back year.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
We've seen multiple publications.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
Folks listen to my show, they listen to other shows,
they listen to your show, and you know, we try
to shape thoughts in a realistic way when you're prognosticating
at this point in the cycle. How much do you
pay attention to Vegas and how much do you pay
attention to the rest of the publications out there and
helping frame your own opinions.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Yeah, that's a great question. I think, you know, with Vegas,
it's really interesting to see where the lines move, you know,
so obviously betters to a degree are going to shift
the line, so that can obviously skew perception. So I
mean I always start with, like, Okay, who did they
initially prognosticate, or who do they initially put as the favorite,
(01:44):
you know, to win the conference or you know, to
they're over under where's the Jews said at is it?
You know? Are they influenced one way or the other.
That's I think where I like to start. And then
you know, once you get a week, two weeks, three
weeks online, you start to see, you know, where Better's
influenced this. Actually, it's funny. We were we were doing
sixteen team previews over sixteen days. We did BYU yesterday
(02:06):
in Utah today. And speaking of that, the line for
the opening game at UCLA started at four and a half.
Utah was favored four and a half. That line has
now moved to six and a half, and I'm thinking, man,
I wish I could have gotten at four and a half.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
Yeah, Yeah, that's uh snoozey. You lose apparently in that
line movement at least.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
So yeah, we'll ball for CCLA team that circles to tackle. Sorry,
I'll see for UCLA team that circles to tackle. Devin
Dappier and Wayshaw Parker are gonna be a huge problem
for them. I see a Week.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
One that's uh.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
I tend to be overly cautious when we're talking about,
you know, this time of year, and I tell people, hey, man,
Utah should win that game. But Utah is, you know,
they're figuring some things out, adding a new offense in UCLA.
Even when they're not good, they do have good athletes.
That's one thing that the Bruins always can feel is
(03:00):
just you know, freaks on defense and freaks on their
offense as well. So even as that line moves, what
do you think is the biggest obstacle in week one
for Utah? Be cause we're what a week away from
them starting the focus on UCLA and the install and
things like that.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
Yeah, and look, I mean all of these non conference
games for the Big twelve against Big ten and SEC
opponents are huge, you know, because it you know, perception
is reality in college football, and there's a lot of them.
You know. Baylor opens up Friday, August twenty ninth, at
home against Auburn, you know, Ucla rather Utah playing at
the Rose Bowl against Ucla, you know, And I mean
(03:39):
just there's just a bunch of them in the first
couple of weeks of the season that are huge for
this conference. But you know, don't forget UCLA was able
to spend some money this offseason and coax Nico I
am Liava to leave Tennessee and come back home to UCLA.
And I mean, for me, what an interesting opening match
(04:00):
for him considering you know, the strength of Utah you know,
is pretty consistently on defense, So really tough way for
them to start, you know, and for him to start.
And I you know, I never wish Ill and any
of these kids or any of these guys, but man,
it won't take him long for him to realize he
ain't n ox Hill anymore. You know. They they and
(04:21):
you're right, I mean, Ucla is always gonna have athletes,
They're always gonna have talent. Like there's you know, there's
an allure of that program, and so like there're so
doubt about they're gonna have ballers, They've got NFL players,
But yeah, I just I feel like the matchup Like
UCLA was one of the worst teams in college football
last year at tackling, So number one that stands out
to me in a big way gets the team like
Utah is gonna force you to tackle. Like I I'm
(04:43):
not trying to say Utah is enough. It doesn't have flaws.
Everybody does, but like one of the things they're they're
really going to take advantage of opposition is teams that
can't tackle. Because you know, the more I watch what
New Mexico did last year, the more I see similarities
to when my Ala Mode or Kansas had Andy Colden
Nicky as their offensive coordinator. You know, I wouldn't have
(05:05):
called Andy Colden Nicky's offense an option offense because it's
not a traditional option, but it's an option offense, and
I think we're gonna see a lot of that, which
is just a lot of window dressing. You know, a
lot of of misdirection, a lot of prestat movement, and
so you know, when you again have a team that
struggles to tackle, that is going to be very problematic.
You know, they don't know where the ball is going
(05:26):
to go. Obviously, I think we're going to see situations where,
you know, Rogers and Parker are going to be on
the field at the same time with some of that misdirection.
So I think Utah, when it gets down to it,
could struggle against teams defensively that forced them to have
to pass the times. But I don't think UCLAO is
gonna be that type of team.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
I've been setting some over under numbers for the University
of Utah and we've been focusing on offense this week,
and we'll I'll throw some over unders for offensive or
excuse me for defensive stats next week. And today we
got to one that was you know, it kind of
ants the conversation around Devin Dampier because he had the
(06:05):
twelve touchdown passes twelve interceptions at New Mexico last year.
It's a little bit of an apple's an oranges comparison.
Because you're playing in the Mount West Conference. We think
that the roster at in New Mexico was a lot
more limited than the roster at the University of Utah is.
But if I give you an over or under for
(06:26):
twenty three and a half passing touchdowns for this Utah
offense with the assumption that Devin Dampier knock On Wood
stays healthy and is quarterbacking every one of these games,
and then an over under number of eleven and a
half interceptions, which is right where he was at last year.
Twelve What do you take on the overs and unders? Wow?
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Yeah, so twelve touchdowns and twelve picks last year. You know,
that seems like a ton of touchdowns when I mean
what traditionally and especially within recent history, you know, passing
the football has not been a made strength of Utah,
especially at the wide receiver position. So like, not only
is it all right you're concerned about his ability to pass,
(07:09):
but also do the wide outs? Does Utah have the
wide outs to win on the outside, especially after losing Branch,
you know, following the spring. I mean, I like Tobias
Merriweather a lot, so I think there's some options there.
But I'm I think if we look at the weaknesses
of this team, like positionally, I'd say the wide receivers
certainly one of those. So you know, to me, and
(07:29):
I'm not exactly answering your question, I guess I would
take the under on on him throwing twice as many
touchdown passes, and I would probably take the under on
him throwing as many interceptions as he did last year,
because I just don't I don't foresee a situation to
which Kyle Whittingham allows him to throw twelve interceptions together
this year, because that can completely derail the plan for
(07:53):
this Utah team. Like I you know, and even in
speaking with Kyle Whittingham at Big twelve media days, and
he mentioned us like he wants to see a five
percent bumping his completion percentage, so somewhere in the low
to mid sixties, which you know is completely reasonable. And
then you know, obviously he's they're trying to get in
the back of damp Pier's mind in certain situations like
you know, we don't need we don't need interceptions on
first down. There was something damp Pier said to us,
(08:14):
just like in watching film back last year, that there's
certain situations last year that you know, first year for
him in this New Mexico offense, as he was with
Jason Beck, like he just he took probably a little
bit too many chances. So I guess I take the
under in both of those. I just I'm not confidence
his ability to double up his touchdown passes from last year.
I'm also not confident that he's going to throw a
(08:35):
twelve interceptions, and I think that's the bigger number, honestly,
Like I have my thing on Utah. I've said this before,
is like they're gonna win a lot of games because
teams will not be able to stop their rushing attack it.
But for them to win a big twelve championship, I
think they're gonna have to pass the football. And like,
if I look at again going back to my Jayhawks
(08:56):
with Andy Kotalnicky, like when they won nine games and
won a bold game with Jason Bean at quarterback who
was their backup that year, but he was spectacular, Like
he had track speed and he was phenomenal. But when
they needed to, they could complete the ball down the field.
And like, I just think, like there's teams that if
you're not able to like with that motion you need
you need to keep the linebackers in position to where
(09:17):
they're in conflict. That's the biggest part to that window
dressing is creating conflicts to linebackers. And you know, Cincinnati
is one of the teams I've used it as example,
not like Cincinnati's a world beater, but late in the
season you tah at Cincinnati, well, if they haven't proven
that they can consistently win down the field. And Cincinnati
has a really good front front seven, their their defensive
line is really good with Dante Colo Leon, and I
(09:39):
think they've got one of the best linebacker corps of
the Big twelve. Like that's one of those games where
it's like, they're not going to believe that you could
throw the football if you can't prove over the course
of the season that you can. And so that I
think that motion and that misdirection doesn't matter as much,
you know, because you're not going to suck the linebackers
in that way.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Yeah, you know, I have the Saint the thing, the
same thought process when I'm talking about how you balance
out an offense that is certainly with the personnel they have,
including the offensive line, I think it is going to
be very run heavy. And you know, the concepts that
will be integrated and added to what we saw from
New Mexico are more likely to be run concepts than
(10:18):
anything creative in the passing game. Because this is still
a Kyle Whittingham head coach team right, And I was
looking for context and all these numbers I'm sitting. I
look back at Utah football history, I look at some
of what New Mexico did, and I'm looking like, where
are the realistic numbers to set? And you say, all right, well,
if you throw, you know, twenty four touchdown passes, that's
(10:41):
still not a crazy number.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
But is it enough to win a conference championship?
Speaker 3 (10:46):
And for Utah in twenty twenty one in the Pac twelve,
it was they threw thirty one touchdown passes in twenty
twenty two in a Pac twelve championship year, and then
in the years that they were runners up in the conference,
and they threw twenty or fewer, which is nuts because
you look at all the other conference championship contending teams
(11:07):
in the country, in the Power four, Power five at least,
and these are teams who are far more prolific through
the air. So even as I'm asking these questions, every
one of these numbers I set in the passing game
is only if you hit the over just barely. It
puts you right in the middle of the Big twelve
conference from you know, last year, the year before, et cetera,
(11:29):
which is, you know, I keep asking myself, do I
believe that Utah is ever going to be a freakishly
good passing offense, Well, not in the near future, but
is middle of the pack good enough based on your
defense and based on your run game to get you
at least to that championship game? And I keep coming
to yes, probably yeah.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
Well and not only that, but like, so a couple
of things. And I remember looking at this at one point,
but in the PAC twelve championship seasons, Rising had like
five picks four picks. I mean it was like thirty
one and three, thirty one and four, right like something
like some ridiculous It was.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Thirty one and ten the second year, and it was
twenty four and eight.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
To the first.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Okay, so more than I was, you know, anticipating, but
still a pretty good number, especially the thirty one and ten,
Like that's a that's a good ratio, that's what you're
looking for. So you know, for me, I zero in
on like I'm more concerned about the twelve than I
would be about the twelve touchdowns with damp Pier, Like,
I'm so much more concerned about the interceptions and to
your point, maybe I shouldn't be Maybe, you know, if
(12:33):
he's at two to one, obviously that's perfically better than
one to one, which what he was last year. But
that would two to one be good enough. The other part,
and this is like the part that keeps coming back
to me, so like, just stylistically, this conference is a
pass havvy conference. But that's a huge departure from what
it was last year and early last couple of years,
(12:54):
when two years ago this conference had the Doak Walker
Award winner and Ali Gordon who rushed from nearly two
thousand yards and even last year year though Gordon had
a really bad year. I mean, you look across the
league and there are a bunch of guys that got
drafted r J. Harvey, Devin Neil that were big twelve
backs last year and they're all gone now. And like
overwhelmingly the strength of the conference the quarterback position. And
(13:14):
then you look across and you're like, there's a lot
of good receivers. So it almost feels like Utah is
zigging a little bit here, even though it's you know,
it's pretty traditional for the way the youths have been stylistically,
Lest you know, decade plus. It's a total zig to
the rest of the conference. And I can't detcise that
it's a good thig or a bad thing because and
I you know, one of the things we talked about
(13:35):
was like, is this like a mean in basketball trading
threes for twos here where all these teams are going
to be passing to you, you know, twice as many
times as you're running the football in a game. And
I mean, I don't know that it's a you know,
complete comparison from a threes to twos thing, but it
is like there are a total stylistically out outlier this
(13:56):
year in the Big Twelve where most teams are gonna
be very pass savvy and most teams are kind of
built with passing offenses. There's not gonna be a lot
of quality rushing offenses this year, which again I can't
I can't decide if that's a good thing or a
bad thing for Utah.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Yeah, that's a tough one because, like you said, I mean,
there's a reason why football over the years has moved
toward the passing game. It's just a more efficient and
more rapid way to put points on the board. And
Utah is really good when they play the game at
their own pace and they can slow everybody else down.
And obviously a ball control offense is something that has
(14:31):
really helped Kyle Whittingham. But his best years, his championship
level years in the mount West Conference before and in
the PAC twelve before have been years of more significant balance.
Where your offense is prolific and you're putting up touchdowns.
You're not doing the Colorado thing or you're not doing
the you know, Joe Burrow Lsu thing where you got
(14:53):
sixty touchdown passes. But the better years for Kyle Whittingham
two thousand and eight and twenty two, you balance it out.
You don't do things the way that people think of
Kyle Whittingham offense as doing things. So I'm curious to
see how it nets this year. Like it sounds you are.
And you know, that brings me to the question of,
(15:16):
like with the parody and the conference and with some
of these stylistic differences in battles coming, how much are
schedules going to matter? You think when we get down
to this, uh, the last three four weeks of the season,
the tougher schedules obviously presenting greater challenges along the way,
but also the tie breakers that we're going to get
to with the team that with the conference that's got
(15:38):
sixteen teams now and no chance for everyone to play everyone.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
Yeah, I mean, I think you just hit the nail
on the head there in terms of the significance of
the of the scheduling. And you know, one of the
things like for me BYU and Utah in particular, and
so we the way we did our our sixteen team
previous and sixteen days is we the three of us
put together our poll medium was James and our producer Brian.
We basically put together our teams where we ranked them
(16:04):
one through sixteen, and then the aggregate score of the
three of us is where we've finished out. So we
had BYU at ten and Utah at nine, or it's
BYU at nine and UTAH at eight one or the other.
I can't remember exactly, but like this speaks to like
this conference needs to be more predictable, and I think
(16:25):
part of the reason we're like having such a difficult
time in prognosticating for these teams is because well, obviously
what happened last year, but like what's happened within this
conference in terms of parody really, you know, in recent history,
but obviously that's new to Utah. But even Utah wasn't
immune to the parody last year, given you know, how
poorly the season went, you know, And so like it's
(16:48):
in other conferences, it's like it feels like one plus
one equals too, you know, like Okay, they're really talented here,
and like this should work out and like they're gonna
be good because of this, and it's just I feel
like I'm I am I don't know if you are
constantly second guessing myself on things because this has just
been a legal parody and like what you expect does
it always come to fruition like in other leagues. So
(17:09):
it would be nice for this league to be a
little bit more what we expect so that it's easier
to predict and then you can look at your schedule
and be like, hey, this is gonna be a really
tough schedule based only the opponents that this team has
down the stretch of the season. But yeah, I mean,
so this all goes back to your question, which is, yeah,
I mean I think this is significant. Like TCU for me,
(17:31):
is a team that is victim going to be a
victim to its schedule. I mean, Utah is a really
tough schedule in the Big Twelve. I think when I
looked at it, they play the top five teams that
I projected in the Big Twelve this year. Maybe the
exception was Iowa State, but even Kansas down the stretch
of the year. At Kansas, you know, opening up a
new stadium be a tough could be a tough one.
Not you know, I projected Iowa State ahead of Kansas,
(17:51):
but still like five, six, seven wherever it is. So
when you think about Texas Tech and Arizona State and
Kansas State, and then you know those games are at home,
but you get West virgin on the road, which is
a tough road game because it's because of the distance,
you know. And so yeah, I mean it's Cincinnati late
in the season. I think Cincinnati could be a surprise team,
(18:13):
you know. Now, I think they need to take a
step kind of like we've talked about with Utah their
passing offense. They really had no receivers to speak of
last year, and that was a big reason why Sports
Soresby took a nose dive in the final seven games
of the season. But you know, the Cincinnati is going
to be good in their front seven, as we talked about,
and I think that could play to one of the
you know, a strength on strengths Utah's rush offense against
(18:33):
Cincinnati's rush defense. Well soon when you get there, it's
late in the season, but yeah, I mean I one
hundred percent. Schedule is something to pay attention to. Like
we can look and break down these teams and look
at strengths, look at weaknesses. But if you're not getting
the whole picture of who they play, when they play them,
and you know, and where those games are, you know,
you're missing a huge part of it. I think TCUs
(18:53):
one of those teams, like TCU has a really tough schedule.
I might have picked TCU to be a you know,
in the Conference championship had they had any yer schedule.
And I think like for Texas Tech or some of
these other teams where it's like, oh, they have an
easier road there because their schedule isn't tough. And again
that can change and has changed, Like recent history suggests
that you know that what we think might be a
tough schedule, is it actually going to be a tough
schedule and vice versa. So That's why I'd like this
(19:16):
conference be a little bit more predictable in the future.
Speaker 3 (19:19):
Well, I know that, I know that this time last year,
all of us here in Salt Lake City had that
road trip to Oklahoma State scheduled, like that's where the
conference has decided that's the game right there, And then
when Isaac Wilson played well in that game, we're just like, hey,
everything's going to be just fine. Well, you know how
(19:39):
the season worked out after that. But it's predictability, while boring.
Would it'd be nice to be a little bit more
boring in the to be twelve right now?
Speaker 4 (19:49):
It would be like you know, I mean, we can
probably give a pretty good prediction of what the top
five of the AP of the preseason AP pole will
be a twenty twenty Okay, we haven't even had the
AP preseason poll release for twenty twenty five, but you
and I could probably put our heads together and predict
what the top five is gonna be for twenty twenty six,
because it's could look awfully similar to what it will
(20:10):
here at twenty twenty five. It's gonna have a lot
of Georgia's and Texas and Bama and Ohio state and
so I mean, you know that that's the predictability you're
talking about. And yeah, I mean I think that's where
the league is, you know, I mean, the league doesn't
want us saying that it's parody. They want you know,
they want to use a different word for it, because
(20:30):
even that word is you as a descriptor for the conference.
Does the conference, you know, a disservice. It's viewed nationally,
you know, as a negative. And you know whether or
not it should be is a disagree you know, is
a discussion all you know, it is a different discussion altogether.
But you know, that's where this conference is right now.
It is it's a fun conference. Anybody that covers this
(20:52):
league knows that. But then anybody from the outside looking
in that covers college football is like, oh, it's a
fun league to watch. They have you know, they really
close games and you know, you don't know who's going
to win, and like that, I think is where the
conference hurts itself, because you know, that's why BYU probably
wasn't closer to discussion about getting to the college football
Playoff last year for that exact perception and bias and reason.
(21:14):
So despite the fact that they beat SMU and had
some quality wins against opponents that were obviously in the playoffs.
So yeah, I mean it would be nice. And you know,
I don't think Ohio State's going to end up as
a top five team in the postseason because they've got
brand new you know, brand new players everywhere. I think
the most overrated team in the preseason.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
So we'll see when we look at the coaches poll
and the ape BOL comes out on Monday. When you
look at the coaches poll, not a lot of love
for the conference. Arizona State highest ranked at eleven, everybody
else down in the twenty to twenty five range, and
then plenty of also rans. Utah I think came in
(21:52):
letted out at number thirty in the in the preseason
coaches pol, do you expect any difference in the upcoming people?
Speaker 4 (22:02):
Probably not much, which is I mean astonishing. So I also,
I didn't know this, but voters for the eight people
had to get their votes in by August first, which
I mean, I guess, as foolish as it is to
do a preseason poll, it's even more foolish to do
it even before fall camp has started. But here we are,
And yeah, I mean it does seem like, despite the
(22:26):
fact that the coaches during fall camp will tell you
that they're only focused on themselves, somehow, despite that, they're
still filling out a ballot. You know they're not. We
know they're not. It's you know, it's usually like the
PR director, the SID that's still agnant out for them.
But like the coaches will say, I'm only focused on us,
I'm only focused on us. We're only focused on us,
really focused on us, And yet somehow they come up
(22:46):
with a poll. I don't know, not that's possible, but
that's what they do every year, and so they shouldn't
be a credible voice in this because they're only focused
on themselves, and they probably should be as coaches of
those programs. And yet despite that, the a peopole does
seem to mirror at I mean, I maintained maybe we
should just take the recruiting rankings and ranked teams in
the preseason based on where they finished in the last
(23:07):
few recruiting rankings, because that's what it seems like we do.
I mean, how else would Ohio State be as high
as they are, how else would Michigan be as high
as they are? I mean, Miami Miami is the one
that kills me. Like nobody does more with less. I
mean maybe Texas and Texas A and m do more
with less talent, would do less with more talent, But
like Miami.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
My god.
Speaker 4 (23:26):
They were nine to oh last year and then lost
three of the last four games in losing the Iowa
State in their bowl game.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
Look, losing the number one overall NFL draft break is
not going to hurt them.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Okay, they They're right where they belong.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
They went nine to zero, lost three of the last
four games with the runner up to the Heisman Trophy
and the number one overall pick. My god, why do
we keep overrating Miami every year like this is nineteen
ninety nine.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
Well, tonight we're going to party like it is. Man.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Go all right, very much, looking for to all of
our conversations that will happen between now and the end
of the college football season. I appreciate your time today
and uh yeah, we'll talk.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
We'll chat again soon.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
Appreciate you OCB well brother, take care.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
That's sorry. Temkintting Big twelve Radio on tune in
No, you're tuned to the Shan O'Connell Show from the
Murdoch Chevrolet Studio of ESPN seven hundred and one a
half am show.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Welcome back to the Shawn O'Connell Show, our.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
Number three on a Thursday, and we welcome Ari Tempkin,
Big twelve Insider.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
All right, welcome for the show. How are you, sir?
I'm great, Ocy.
Speaker 4 (00:34):
How are you buddy doing?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
All right?
Speaker 4 (00:36):
Man?
Speaker 3 (00:36):
We're what twenty three days away from Utah kicking off.
It's college football season. Exciting times here in Salt Lake City.
You know how it is when it's just practice time.
There's optimism. Everyone's brimming with it. And a lot of
Ute fans are feeling extra optimism because depending on what
sportsbook you look at. But Vegas is starting to show
(00:58):
a little bit of confidence that the Utes are going
to have a bounce back year.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
We've seen multiple publications.
Speaker 3 (01:05):
Folks listen to my show, they listen to other shows,
they listen to your show, and you know, we try
to shape thoughts in a realistic way when you're prognosticating
at this point in the cycle. How much do you
pay attention to Vegas and how much do you pay
attention to the rest of the publications out there and
helping frame your own opinions.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Yeah, that's a great question. I think, you know, with Vegas,
it's really interesting to see where the lines move, you know,
so obviously betters to a degree are going to shift
the line, so that can obviously skew perception. So I
mean I always start with, like, Okay, who did they
initially prognosticate, or who do they initially put as the favorite,
(01:44):
you know, to win the conference or you know, to
they're over under where's the Jews said at is it?
You know? Are they influenced one way or the other.
That's I think where I like to start. And then
you know, once you get a week, two weeks, three
weeks online, you start to see, you know, where Better's
influenced this. Actually, it's funny. We were we were doing
sixteen team previews over sixteen days. We did BYU yesterday
(02:06):
in Utah today. And speaking of that, the line for
the opening game at UCLA started at four and a half.
Utah was favored four and a half. That line has
now moved to six and a half, and I'm thinking, man,
I wish I could have gotten at four and a half.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
Yeah, Yeah, that's uh snoozey. You lose apparently in that
line movement at least.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
So yeah, we'll ball for CCLA team that circles to tackle. Sorry,
I'll see for UCLA team that circles to tackle. Devin
Dappier and Wayshaw Parker are gonna be a huge problem
for them. I see a Week.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
One that's uh.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
I tend to be overly cautious when we're talking about,
you know, this time of year, and I tell people, hey, man,
Utah should win that game. But Utah is, you know,
they're figuring some things out, adding a new offense in UCLA.
Even when they're not good, they do have good athletes.
That's one thing that the Bruins always can feel is
(03:00):
just you know, freaks on defense and freaks on their
offense as well. So even as that line moves, what
do you think is the biggest obstacle in week one
for Utah? Be cause we're what a week away from
them starting the focus on UCLA and the install and
things like that.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
Yeah, and look, I mean all of these non conference
games for the Big twelve against Big ten and SEC
opponents are huge, you know, because it you know, perception
is reality in college football, and there's a lot of them.
You know. Baylor opens up Friday, August twenty ninth, at
home against Auburn, you know, Ucla rather Utah playing at
the Rose Bowl against Ucla, you know, And I mean
(03:39):
just there's just a bunch of them in the first
couple of weeks of the season that are huge for
this conference. But you know, don't forget UCLA was able
to spend some money this offseason and coax Nico I
am Liava to leave Tennessee and come back home to UCLA.
And I mean, for me, what an interesting opening match
(04:00):
for him considering you know, the strength of Utah you know,
is pretty consistently on defense, So really tough way for
them to start, you know, and for him to start.
And I you know, I never wish Ill and any
of these kids or any of these guys, but man,
it won't take him long for him to realize he
ain't n ox Hill anymore. You know. They they and
(04:21):
you're right, I mean, Ucla is always gonna have athletes,
They're always gonna have talent. Like there's you know, there's
an allure of that program, and so like there're so
doubt about they're gonna have ballers, They've got NFL players,
But yeah, I just I feel like the matchup Like
UCLA was one of the worst teams in college football
last year at tackling, So number one that stands out
to me in a big way gets the team like
Utah is gonna force you to tackle. Like I I'm
(04:43):
not trying to say Utah is enough. It doesn't have flaws.
Everybody does, but like one of the things they're they're
really going to take advantage of opposition is teams that
can't tackle. Because you know, the more I watch what
New Mexico did last year, the more I see similarities
to when my Ala Mode or Kansas had Andy Colden
Nicky as their offensive coordinator. You know, I wouldn't have
(05:05):
called Andy Colden Nicky's offense an option offense because it's
not a traditional option, but it's an option offense, and
I think we're gonna see a lot of that, which
is just a lot of window dressing. You know, a
lot of of misdirection, a lot of prestat movement, and
so you know, when you again have a team that
struggles to tackle, that is going to be very problematic.
You know, they don't know where the ball is going
(05:26):
to go. Obviously, I think we're going to see situations where,
you know, Rogers and Parker are going to be on
the field at the same time with some of that misdirection.
So I think Utah, when it gets down to it,
could struggle against teams defensively that forced them to have
to pass the times. But I don't think UCLAO is
gonna be that type of team.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
I've been setting some over under numbers for the University
of Utah and we've been focusing on offense this week,
and we'll I'll throw some over unders for offensive or
excuse me for defensive stats next week. And today we
got to one that was you know, it kind of
ants the conversation around Devin Dampier because he had the
(06:05):
twelve touchdown passes twelve interceptions at New Mexico last year.
It's a little bit of an apple's an oranges comparison.
Because you're playing in the Mount West Conference. We think
that the roster at in New Mexico was a lot
more limited than the roster at the University of Utah is.
But if I give you an over or under for
(06:26):
twenty three and a half passing touchdowns for this Utah
offense with the assumption that Devin Dampier knock On Wood
stays healthy and is quarterbacking every one of these games,
and then an over under number of eleven and a
half interceptions, which is right where he was at last year.
Twelve What do you take on the overs and unders? Wow?
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Yeah, so twelve touchdowns and twelve picks last year. You know,
that seems like a ton of touchdowns when I mean
what traditionally and especially within recent history, you know, passing
the football has not been a made strength of Utah,
especially at the wide receiver position. So like, not only
is it all right you're concerned about his ability to pass,
(07:09):
but also do the wide outs? Does Utah have the
wide outs to win on the outside, especially after losing Branch,
you know, following the spring. I mean, I like Tobias
Merriweather a lot, so I think there's some options there.
But I'm I think if we look at the weaknesses
of this team, like positionally, I'd say the wide receivers
certainly one of those. So you know, to me, and
(07:29):
I'm not exactly answering your question, I guess I would
take the under on on him throwing twice as many
touchdown passes, and I would probably take the under on
him throwing as many interceptions as he did last year,
because I just don't I don't foresee a situation to
which Kyle Whittingham allows him to throw twelve interceptions together
this year, because that can completely derail the plan for
(07:53):
this Utah team. Like I you know, and even in
speaking with Kyle Whittingham at Big twelve media days, and
he mentioned us like he wants to see a five
percent bumping his completion percentage, so somewhere in the low
to mid sixties, which you know is completely reasonable. And
then you know, obviously he's they're trying to get in
the back of damp Pier's mind in certain situations like
you know, we don't need we don't need interceptions on
first down. There was something damp Pier said to us,
(08:14):
just like in watching film back last year, that there's
certain situations last year that you know, first year for
him in this New Mexico offense, as he was with
Jason Beck, like he just he took probably a little
bit too many chances. So I guess I take the
under in both of those. I just I'm not confidence
his ability to double up his touchdown passes from last year.
I'm also not confident that he's going to throw a
(08:35):
twelve interceptions, and I think that's the bigger number, honestly,
Like I have my thing on Utah. I've said this before,
is like they're gonna win a lot of games because
teams will not be able to stop their rushing attack it.
But for them to win a big twelve championship, I
think they're gonna have to pass the football. And like,
if I look at again going back to my Jayhawks
(08:56):
with Andy Kotalnicky, like when they won nine games and
won a bold game with Jason Bean at quarterback who
was their backup that year, but he was spectacular, Like
he had track speed and he was phenomenal. But when
they needed to, they could complete the ball down the field.
And like, I just think, like there's teams that if
you're not able to like with that motion you need
you need to keep the linebackers in position to where
(09:17):
they're in conflict. That's the biggest part to that window
dressing is creating conflicts to linebackers. And you know, Cincinnati
is one of the teams I've used it as example,
not like Cincinnati's a world beater, but late in the
season you tah at Cincinnati, well, if they haven't proven
that they can consistently win down the field. And Cincinnati
has a really good front front seven, their their defensive
line is really good with Dante Colo Leon, and I
(09:39):
think they've got one of the best linebacker corps of
the Big twelve. Like that's one of those games where
it's like, they're not going to believe that you could
throw the football if you can't prove over the course
of the season that you can. And so that I
think that motion and that misdirection doesn't matter as much,
you know, because you're not going to suck the linebackers
in that way.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Yeah, you know, I have the Saint the thing, the
same thought process when I'm talking about how you balance
out an offense that is certainly with the personnel they have,
including the offensive line, I think it is going to
be very run heavy. And you know, the concepts that
will be integrated and added to what we saw from
New Mexico are more likely to be run concepts than
(10:18):
anything creative in the passing game. Because this is still
a Kyle Whittingham head coach team right, And I was
looking for context and all these numbers I'm sitting. I
look back at Utah football history, I look at some
of what New Mexico did, and I'm looking like, where
are the realistic numbers to set? And you say, all right, well,
if you throw, you know, twenty four touchdown passes, that's
(10:41):
still not a crazy number.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
But is it enough to win a conference championship?
Speaker 3 (10:46):
And for Utah in twenty twenty one in the Pac twelve,
it was they threw thirty one touchdown passes in twenty
twenty two in a Pac twelve championship year, and then
in the years that they were runners up in the conference,
and they threw twenty or fewer, which is nuts because
you look at all the other conference championship contending teams
(11:07):
in the country, in the Power four, Power five at least,
and these are teams who are far more prolific through
the air. So even as I'm asking these questions, every
one of these numbers I set in the passing game
is only if you hit the over just barely. It
puts you right in the middle of the Big twelve
conference from you know, last year, the year before, et cetera,
(11:29):
which is, you know, I keep asking myself, do I
believe that Utah is ever going to be a freakishly
good passing offense, Well, not in the near future, but
is middle of the pack good enough based on your
defense and based on your run game to get you
at least to that championship game? And I keep coming
to yes, probably yeah.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
Well and not only that, but like, so a couple
of things. And I remember looking at this at one point,
but in the PAC twelve championship seasons, Rising had like
five picks four picks. I mean it was like thirty
one and three, thirty one and four, right like something
like some ridiculous It was.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Thirty one and ten the second year, and it was
twenty four and eight.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
To the first.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Okay, so more than I was, you know, anticipating, but
still a pretty good number, especially the thirty one and ten,
Like that's a that's a good ratio, that's what you're
looking for. So you know, for me, I zero in
on like I'm more concerned about the twelve than I
would be about the twelve touchdowns with damp Pier, Like,
I'm so much more concerned about the interceptions and to
your point, maybe I shouldn't be Maybe, you know, if
(12:33):
he's at two to one, obviously that's perfically better than
one to one, which what he was last year. But
that would two to one be good enough. The other part,
and this is like the part that keeps coming back
to me, so like, just stylistically, this conference is a
pass havvy conference. But that's a huge departure from what
it was last year and early last couple of years,
(12:54):
when two years ago this conference had the Doak Walker
Award winner and Ali Gordon who rushed from nearly two
thousand yards and even last year year though Gordon had
a really bad year. I mean, you look across the
league and there are a bunch of guys that got
drafted r J. Harvey, Devin Neil that were big twelve
backs last year and they're all gone now. And like
overwhelmingly the strength of the conference the quarterback position. And
(13:14):
then you look across and you're like, there's a lot
of good receivers. So it almost feels like Utah is
zigging a little bit here, even though it's you know,
it's pretty traditional for the way the youths have been stylistically,
Lest you know, decade plus. It's a total zig to
the rest of the conference. And I can't detcise that
it's a good thig or a bad thing because and
I you know, one of the things we talked about
(13:35):
was like, is this like a mean in basketball trading
threes for twos here where all these teams are going
to be passing to you, you know, twice as many
times as you're running the football in a game. And
I mean, I don't know that it's a you know,
complete comparison from a threes to twos thing, but it
is like there are a total stylistically out outlier this
(13:56):
year in the Big Twelve where most teams are gonna
be very pass savvy and most teams are kind of
built with passing offenses. There's not gonna be a lot
of quality rushing offenses this year, which again I can't
I can't decide if that's a good thing or a
bad thing for Utah.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Yeah, that's a tough one because, like you said, I mean,
there's a reason why football over the years has moved
toward the passing game. It's just a more efficient and
more rapid way to put points on the board. And
Utah is really good when they play the game at
their own pace and they can slow everybody else down.
And obviously a ball control offense is something that has
(14:31):
really helped Kyle Whittingham. But his best years, his championship
level years in the mount West Conference before and in
the PAC twelve before have been years of more significant balance.
Where your offense is prolific and you're putting up touchdowns.
You're not doing the Colorado thing or you're not doing
the you know, Joe Burrow Lsu thing where you got
(14:53):
sixty touchdown passes. But the better years for Kyle Whittingham
two thousand and eight and twenty two, you balance it out.
You don't do things the way that people think of
Kyle Whittingham offense as doing things. So I'm curious to
see how it nets this year. Like it sounds you are.
And you know, that brings me to the question of,
(15:16):
like with the parody and the conference and with some
of these stylistic differences in battles coming, how much are
schedules going to matter? You think when we get down
to this, uh, the last three four weeks of the season,
the tougher schedules obviously presenting greater challenges along the way,
but also the tie breakers that we're going to get
to with the team that with the conference that's got
(15:38):
sixteen teams now and no chance for everyone to play everyone.
Speaker 4 (15:42):
Yeah, I mean, I think you just hit the nail
on the head there in terms of the significance of
the of the scheduling. And you know, one of the
things like for me BYU and Utah in particular, and
so we the way we did our our sixteen team
previous and sixteen days is we the three of us
put together our poll medium was James and our producer Brian.
We basically put together our teams where we ranked them
(16:04):
one through sixteen, and then the aggregate score of the
three of us is where we've finished out. So we
had BYU at ten and Utah at nine, or it's
BYU at nine and UTAH at eight one or the other.
I can't remember exactly, but like this speaks to like
this conference needs to be more predictable, and I think
(16:25):
part of the reason we're like having such a difficult
time in prognosticating for these teams is because well, obviously
what happened last year, but like what's happened within this
conference in terms of parody really, you know, in recent history,
but obviously that's new to Utah. But even Utah wasn't
immune to the parody last year, given you know, how
poorly the season went, you know, And so like it's
(16:48):
in other conferences, it's like it feels like one plus
one equals too, you know, like Okay, they're really talented here,
and like this should work out and like they're gonna
be good because of this, and it's just I feel
like I'm I am I don't know if you are
constantly second guessing myself on things because this has just
been a legal parody and like what you expect does
it always come to fruition like in other leagues. So
(17:09):
it would be nice for this league to be a
little bit more what we expect so that it's easier
to predict and then you can look at your schedule
and be like, hey, this is gonna be a really
tough schedule based only the opponents that this team has
down the stretch of the season. But yeah, I mean,
so this all goes back to your question, which is, yeah,
I mean I think this is significant. Like TCU for me,
(17:31):
is a team that is victim going to be a
victim to its schedule. I mean, Utah is a really
tough schedule in the Big Twelve. I think when I
looked at it, they play the top five teams that
I projected in the Big Twelve this year. Maybe the
exception was Iowa State, but even Kansas down the stretch
of the year. At Kansas, you know, opening up a
new stadium be a tough could be a tough one.
Not you know, I projected Iowa State ahead of Kansas,
(17:51):
but still like five, six, seven wherever it is. So
when you think about Texas Tech and Arizona State and
Kansas State, and then you know those games are at home,
but you get West virgin on the road, which is
a tough road game because it's because of the distance,
you know. And so yeah, I mean it's Cincinnati late
in the season. I think Cincinnati could be a surprise team,
(18:13):
you know. Now, I think they need to take a
step kind of like we've talked about with Utah their
passing offense. They really had no receivers to speak of
last year, and that was a big reason why Sports
Soresby took a nose dive in the final seven games
of the season. But you know, the Cincinnati is going
to be good in their front seven, as we talked about,
and I think that could play to one of the
you know, a strength on strengths Utah's rush offense against
(18:33):
Cincinnati's rush defense. Well soon when you get there, it's
late in the season, but yeah, I mean I one
hundred percent. Schedule is something to pay attention to. Like
we can look and break down these teams and look
at strengths, look at weaknesses. But if you're not getting
the whole picture of who they play, when they play them,
and you know, and where those games are, you know,
you're missing a huge part of it. I think TCUs
(18:53):
one of those teams, like TCU has a really tough schedule.
I might have picked TCU to be a you know,
in the Conference championship had they had any yer schedule.
And I think like for Texas Tech or some of
these other teams where it's like, oh, they have an
easier road there because their schedule isn't tough. And again
that can change and has changed, Like recent history suggests
that you know that what we think might be a
tough schedule, is it actually going to be a tough
schedule and vice versa. So That's why I'd like this
(19:16):
conference be a little bit more predictable in the future.
Speaker 3 (19:19):
Well, I know that, I know that this time last year,
all of us here in Salt Lake City had that
road trip to Oklahoma State scheduled, like that's where the
conference has decided that's the game right there, And then
when Isaac Wilson played well in that game, we're just like, hey,
everything's going to be just fine. Well, you know how
(19:39):
the season worked out after that. But it's predictability, while boring.
Would it'd be nice to be a little bit more
boring in the to be twelve right now?
Speaker 4 (19:49):
It would be like you know, I mean, we can
probably give a pretty good prediction of what the top
five of the AP of the preseason AP pole will
be a twenty twenty Okay, we haven't even had the
AP preseason poll release for twenty twenty five, but you
and I could probably put our heads together and predict
what the top five is gonna be for twenty twenty six,
because it's could look awfully similar to what it will
(20:10):
here at twenty twenty five. It's gonna have a lot
of Georgia's and Texas and Bama and Ohio state and
so I mean, you know that that's the predictability you're
talking about. And yeah, I mean I think that's where
the league is, you know, I mean, the league doesn't
want us saying that it's parody. They want you know,
they want to use a different word for it, because
(20:30):
even that word is you as a descriptor for the conference.
Does the conference, you know, a disservice. It's viewed nationally,
you know, as a negative. And you know whether or
not it should be is a disagree you know, is
a discussion all you know, it is a different discussion altogether.
But you know, that's where this conference is right now.
It is it's a fun conference. Anybody that covers this
(20:52):
league knows that. But then anybody from the outside looking
in that covers college football is like, oh, it's a
fun league to watch. They have you know, they really
close games and you know, you don't know who's going
to win, and like that, I think is where the
conference hurts itself, because you know, that's why BYU probably
wasn't closer to discussion about getting to the college football
Playoff last year for that exact perception and bias and reason.
(21:14):
So despite the fact that they beat SMU and had
some quality wins against opponents that were obviously in the playoffs.
So yeah, I mean it would be nice. And you know,
I don't think Ohio State's going to end up as
a top five team in the postseason because they've got
brand new you know, brand new players everywhere. I think
the most overrated team in the preseason.
Speaker 3 (21:31):
So we'll see when we look at the coaches poll
and the ape BOL comes out on Monday. When you
look at the coaches poll, not a lot of love
for the conference. Arizona State highest ranked at eleven, everybody
else down in the twenty to twenty five range, and
then plenty of also rans. Utah I think came in
(21:52):
letted out at number thirty in the in the preseason
coaches pol, do you expect any difference in the upcoming people?
Speaker 4 (22:02):
Probably not much, which is I mean astonishing. So I also,
I didn't know this, but voters for the eight people
had to get their votes in by August first, which
I mean, I guess, as foolish as it is to
do a preseason poll, it's even more foolish to do
it even before fall camp has started. But here we are,
And yeah, I mean it does seem like, despite the
(22:26):
fact that the coaches during fall camp will tell you
that they're only focused on themselves, somehow, despite that, they're
still filling out a ballot. You know they're not. We
know they're not. It's you know, it's usually like the
PR director, the SID that's still agnant out for them.
But like the coaches will say, I'm only focused on us,
I'm only focused on us. We're only focused on us,
really focused on us, And yet somehow they come up
(22:46):
with a poll. I don't know, not that's possible, but
that's what they do every year, and so they shouldn't
be a credible voice in this because they're only focused
on themselves, and they probably should be as coaches of
those programs. And yet despite that, the a peopole does
seem to mirror at I mean, I maintained maybe we
should just take the recruiting rankings and ranked teams in
the preseason based on where they finished in the last
(23:07):
few recruiting rankings, because that's what it seems like we do.
I mean, how else would Ohio State be as high
as they are, how else would Michigan be as high
as they are? I mean, Miami Miami is the one
that kills me. Like nobody does more with less. I
mean maybe Texas and Texas A and m do more
with less talent, would do less with more talent, But
like Miami.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
My god.
Speaker 4 (23:26):
They were nine to oh last year and then lost
three of the last four games in losing the Iowa
State in their bowl game.
Speaker 3 (23:33):
Look, losing the number one overall NFL draft break is
not going to hurt them.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Okay, they They're right where they belong.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
They went nine to zero, lost three of the last
four games with the runner up to the Heisman Trophy
and the number one overall pick. My god, why do
we keep overrating Miami every year like this is nineteen
ninety nine.
Speaker 2 (23:54):
Well, tonight we're going to party like it is. Man.
Speaker 3 (23:57):
Go all right, very much, looking for to all of
our conversations that will happen between now and the end
of the college football season. I appreciate your time today
and uh yeah, we'll talk.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
We'll chat again soon.
Speaker 4 (24:09):
Appreciate you OCB well brother, take care.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
That's sorry. Temkintting Big twelve Radio on tune in
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.