Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Today we are on the hunt fora missing spacecraft. The suspect in question
has made away with four point twobillion dollars in NASA funding with the promise
to develop a spacecraft that will transportastronauts and cargo to the International Space Station.
Almost a decade later, and oneof the biggest aerospace companies on the
(00:20):
planet has failed to deliver a crewcapable spacecraft. So where is the Boeing
Starliner? This is the space race. NASA has been at the forefront of
space exploration since the Cold War,and there is no more iconic NASA vehicle
than the Space Shuttle. It mayhave been dangerous, it may have been
(00:42):
preposterously expensive, It may have evenbeen somewhat of a failure in many regards,
but the Shuttle was easily the mostprolific and recognizable spacecraft of its day,
becoming a symbol of human space explorationover three decades of operation. Most
of these missions involved transporting astronauts tothe International Space Station, which was first
(01:03):
launched in nineteen ninety eight and hasbeen continuously inhabited by people since the year
two thousand. But in two thousandand eleven, NASA decided to finally retire
the Space Shuttle program, and thatleft American astronauts with no other option than
the Russian so used rocket for flyingto and from the ISS. And while
(01:26):
the United States and Russia are partnersin the International Space Station project, NASA
would prefer to not be dependent onRussia for all its launch needs. It
doesn't help that Russia is a majorpolitical rival to the United States. With
this in mind, NASA introduced theCommercial Crew Program in two thousand and eleven.
(01:47):
The idea was to partner with Americanprivate companies to deliver astronauts to and
from the International Space Station. NASAwould award contracts and the companies would compete
with each other to develop the mostinnervative, cost effective, and safe solutions
to get crew to the International SpaceStation. Fast forward to twenty fourteen,
and after a lengthy bidding process,NASA awarded Boeing a four point two billion
(02:13):
dollar contract to develop the CST onehundred Starliner spacecraft and carry out six missions
to the International Space Station. ElonMusk's SpaceX also won a contract worth two
point six billion dollars to develop theCrew Dragon spacecraft and conduct six missions of
their own with two private companies inthe mix. The assumption was that a
(02:37):
healthy competition would result in a betterproduct delivered quicker and more efficiently than if
NASA developed it themselves, and havingtwo companies on board prevented a monopoly.
Unfortunately, what should have been anexciting domestic space race ended up being far
more one sided than NASA would havepredicted. SpaceX launched its first crude mission
(02:59):
in twenty twenty, and Boeing isnot set to try their own until at
least April twenty twenty four. Solet's dig a little into what went wrong
with Boeing. They were to conductthe first test flight in twenty sixteen,
but issues in development forced an eightmonth delay. The aircraft was too heavy
and the team was working to reducemass and address some issues with aerodynamic drag,
(03:23):
pushing the test launch date to twentyseventeen. Twenty seventeen came and went
with no launch in sight and anew date of July twenty eighteen, but
once again another issue reared its head. During testing, Boeing discovered a hypergolic
propellant leak. This is the selfcombusting fuel mixture used in the vehicle's maneuvering
(03:45):
thrusters. And it is incredibly toxic. Any kind of fuel leak is bad,
but hyperglic fuel leaks in a crudecapsule are worse. So back to
the factory it went for further developmentand a new launch date of November twenty
nine, nineteen. The first flightof the CST one hundred star Liner capsule
was a pad abort test, whichis a practical demonstration of the craft's abort
(04:09):
system engines. Starliner accelerated away fromthe launch pad successfully, but when landing,
one of the three parachutes failed todeploy. That being said, the
capsule did land within safety parameters,so even though it wasn't a complete success,
it was not a complete failure either. A month later, in December
twenty nineteen, Boeing felt strong enoughto attempt their first test flight all the
(04:32):
way to the International Space Station,known as an orbital flight test. This
is an unmanned flight that launches fromEarth, gets to the International Space Station,
docks at the station, and thensuccessfully and safely returns to Earth.
But and we are starting to seea pattern here, there were problems.
Once again. The Starliner's internal timerwas off by eleven hours initiating an orbital
(04:58):
insertion burn much earlier than needed.This put the spacecraft in the incorrect trajectory
and prevented it from reaching the InternationalSpace Station entirely. It eventually had to
land in New Mexico within two daysof flying. The second major error on
this test flight involved thrusters that anglethe craft to avoid damaging heat shields that
protect the craft during re entry.Both of these were primarily software issues,
(05:24):
but it diminished a lot of thealready waning confidence in Boeing's capability to deliver
on this project. It also ledto an in depth review between the company
and NASA, identifying eighty areas thatneeded to be updated and corrected. It
then took Boeing two and a halfyears to fix these errors and a few
(05:45):
other problems, as they ironed outevery potential issue they could think of.
But that's the nature of problems.They always lurk around the corner, and
Boeing were once again reacquainted with them. In April twenty twenty one, the
redesign and up dated Starliner was atthe launch site ready for its second orbital
flight test. During final testing,though an issue was discovered with thirteen engine
(06:09):
valves in the craft, and exposureto the salty air at Cape Canaveral,
Florida led to corrosion, and withtolerances so tight, it was simply unsafe
to launch. Boeing tried to remedythe problem on site, but eventually decided
canceling the test flight was the saferoption. A year later, in May
twenty twenty two, Boeing did manageanother orbital test flight. The spacecraft launched
(06:31):
and returned to Earth successfully after dockingat the International Space Station, but even
here it wasn't smooth sailing as somesystems didn't work as expected. Two orbital
maneuvering and altitude control thrusters also knownas OMAC thrusters, failed during the orbital
insertion phase of the flight, butthe spacecraft was able to compensate with the
(06:54):
remaining OMAC thrusters. A couple ofreaction control system thrusters used at the docking
all failed due to low chamber pressure, but with a safe flight it was
deemed a success. The next stepwould be a final test with crew on
board. Boeing had initially planned thecrew test flight for December twenty twenty two.
(07:15):
Unfortunately, Boeing's dance with delays returnedand the launch first got pushed to
February twenty twenty three, then Apriltwenty twenty three, and further to July
twenty twenty three, with another finalupdate in April twenty twenty four. So
why the latest delay, Well,the parachute problem persists and if humans are
(07:35):
going to be traveling in it,Boeing is taking absolutely no chances. Engineers
have found that the soft links usedon the suspension lines of Starliner's three main
parachutes cannot handle the load of thecraft if one of them fails, and
being able to land with just twoout of the three parachutes is a safety
requirement for NASA. Boeing engineers havenow created a more robust soft link and
(08:00):
redesigned the parachute system, and it'sset to be tested sometime in November twenty
twenty three. But then again anotherproblem surfaced more recently wiring. The P
two to one to three glass fabrictape covering the electrical wires in the capsule
was found to be a fire hazard. While it is commonly used in the
aerospace industry to wrap wires to preventchafing in certain conditions and at different oxygen
(08:24):
concentrations, it can be flammable,and Boeing would really prefer if the star
Liner did not self immolate, especiallywith crew on board. So as Boeing
tries to solve these they have wiselyrefrained from an exact launch date. But
if things go to plan, thestar Liner could be transporting crew sometime in
twenty twenty four. But while Boeingstruggles, the SpaceX Crew Dragon has been
(08:48):
running away with virtually no competition.Sure, they had a few Falcon nine
rockets explode during testing, but theirAugust twenty twenty three flight marks the seventh
successful crew transportation to the International SpaceStation, with the first happening way back
in twenty twenty. Their next missionis scheduled for early twenty twenty four,
and they've seen their initial six missioncontract with NASA jump to fourteen missions,
(09:13):
bringing their total contract value to almostfive billion dollars. In addition to that,
the cost for seats on Crew Dragonare almost half of the star Liner.
While SpaceX charges fifty five million dollarsper astronaut, Boeing comes in at
ninety million dollars as per NASA documents. Boeing did release a statement refuting that
(09:33):
cost, stating their capsule could carryfive astronauts as opposed to the standard four,
which means it would cost less.But until the company actually manages to
send a crew into orbit, we'lljust have to wait and see. Speaking
of costs, NASA contracting these twoBoeing and SpaceX instead of developing it themselves
saves the agency about twenty to thirtybillion dollars. So while NASA benefits from
(09:58):
lower costs, BOW and SpaceX getto have someone else put the bill for
development. And this is technology thatthey still hold intellectual property rights to,
allowing them to use it for othercommercial projects and profit from. In addition
to the cost benefits, this hasalso pushed the United States to once again
become the world leader in space.After twenty eleven, the United States had
(10:20):
zero percent of the global commercial launchmarket. Today, thanks to SpaceX alone,
they have seventy percent, and thishas resulted in NASA being a huge
contributor to the SpaceX revenue to thetune of millions every year. This is
significant and might be an indicator asto why Boeing continues to pursue the Starliner
(10:41):
project, even though spaceflight only accountsfor a small portion of the company revenue.
After the company lost billions due tothe grounding of its seven thirty seven
maxplane and air travel demand plummeting duringthe COVID pandemic, the star Liner project
might just be a revenue source worthpursuing. That being said, there's no
taking away that it is a projectthat is bleeding Boeing a lot of money
(11:05):
right now. Since the contract wasawarded, the company has already racked up
close to one point five billion inloss, and every delay costs it more.
Also, the contracts are just fortransporting crew to the International Space Station,
which will only be operational until twentythirty, so there's a timeframe on
that. Boeing, though, iscommitted to fulfilling its contractual obligations. Mark
(11:30):
Nappy, Boeing Starliner Vice President andprogram manager, reiterated they were still committed
to six crewed missions and one crewdetest flight to the International Space Station.
But more importantly, does Boeing seea future for the star Liner project beyond
the NASA contract? Well, Withoutthe contract, further development can get very
costly. In an interview, andBoeing Vice President of Exploration Systems, John
(11:54):
Shannon was asked if the company plannedto continue the program long term, he
gave an ambiguous answer, saying itwas a great question and he wished he
had an answer to it. Thisuncertainty indicates Boeing is yet to determine if
the entire project is even still worthit, and with the lead SpaceX has
on them, it might be harderto catch up, even if they do
(12:16):
get everything up and running smoothly forcommercial application beyond NASA. On the other
hand, there are alternatives that willvery soon become viable. Sierra Space didn't
manage to get the initial NASA contract, but their Dreamchaser spacecraft has been in
development for two decades and is prettymuch ready. Right alongside is Blue Origins
NW Glenn Spacecraft commercial space flights,and their demand will continue increasing as time
(12:41):
progresses. Right now, SpaceX hasthe competitive advantage, and any other player
that wants a piece of the piewill have to work very hard to catch
up. Sierras Space in Blue Originlook ready to take on the challenge,
but will Boeing finally join the frayas well. Only time will tell.
Today we are on the hunt fora missing spacecraft. The suspect in question
has made away with four point twobillion dollars in NASA funding with the promise
to develop a spacecraft that will transportastronauts and cargo to the International Space Station.
Almost a decade later, and oneof the biggest aerospace companies on the
(00:20):
planet has failed to deliver a crewcapable spacecraft. So where is the Boeing
Starliner? This is the space race. NASA has been at the forefront of
space exploration since the Cold War,and there is no more iconic NASA vehicle
than the Space Shuttle. It mayhave been dangerous, it may have been
(00:42):
preposterously expensive, It may have evenbeen somewhat of a failure in many regards,
but the Shuttle was easily the mostprolific and recognizable spacecraft of its day,
becoming a symbol of human space explorationover three decades of operation. Most
of these missions involved transporting astronauts tothe International Space Station, which was first
(01:03):
launched in nineteen ninety eight and hasbeen continuously inhabited by people since the year
two thousand. But in two thousandand eleven, NASA decided to finally retire
the Space Shuttle program, and thatleft American astronauts with no other option than
the Russian so used rocket for flyingto and from the ISS. And while
(01:26):
the United States and Russia are partnersin the International Space Station project, NASA
would prefer to not be dependent onRussia for all its launch needs. It
doesn't help that Russia is a majorpolitical rival to the United States. With
this in mind, NASA introduced theCommercial Crew Program in two thousand and eleven.
(01:47):
The idea was to partner with Americanprivate companies to deliver astronauts to and
from the International Space Station. NASAwould award contracts and the companies would compete
with each other to develop the mostinnervative, cost effective, and safe solutions
to get crew to the International SpaceStation. Fast forward to twenty fourteen,
and after a lengthy bidding process,NASA awarded Boeing a four point two billion
(02:13):
dollar contract to develop the CST onehundred Starliner spacecraft and carry out six missions
to the International Space Station. ElonMusk's SpaceX also won a contract worth two
point six billion dollars to develop theCrew Dragon spacecraft and conduct six missions of
their own with two private companies inthe mix. The assumption was that a
(02:37):
healthy competition would result in a betterproduct delivered quicker and more efficiently than if
NASA developed it themselves, and havingtwo companies on board prevented a monopoly.
Unfortunately, what should have been anexciting domestic space race ended up being far
more one sided than NASA would havepredicted. SpaceX launched its first crude mission
(02:59):
in twenty twenty, and Boeing isnot set to try their own until at
least April twenty twenty four. Solet's dig a little into what went wrong
with Boeing. They were to conductthe first test flight in twenty sixteen,
but issues in development forced an eightmonth delay. The aircraft was too heavy
and the team was working to reducemass and address some issues with aerodynamic drag,
(03:23):
pushing the test launch date to twentyseventeen. Twenty seventeen came and went
with no launch in sight and anew date of July twenty eighteen, but
once again another issue reared its head. During testing, Boeing discovered a hypergolic
propellant leak. This is the selfcombusting fuel mixture used in the vehicle's maneuvering
(03:45):
thrusters. And it is incredibly toxic. Any kind of fuel leak is bad,
but hyperglic fuel leaks in a crudecapsule are worse. So back to
the factory it went for further developmentand a new launch date of November twenty
nine, nineteen. The first flightof the CST one hundred star Liner capsule
was a pad abort test, whichis a practical demonstration of the craft's abort
(04:09):
system engines. Starliner accelerated away fromthe launch pad successfully, but when landing,
one of the three parachutes failed todeploy. That being said, the
capsule did land within safety parameters,so even though it wasn't a complete success,
it was not a complete failure either. A month later, in December
twenty nineteen, Boeing felt strong enoughto attempt their first test flight all the
(04:32):
way to the International Space Station,known as an orbital flight test. This
is an unmanned flight that launches fromEarth, gets to the International Space Station,
docks at the station, and thensuccessfully and safely returns to Earth.
But and we are starting to seea pattern here, there were problems.
Once again. The Starliner's internal timerwas off by eleven hours initiating an orbital
(04:58):
insertion burn much earlier than needed.This put the spacecraft in the incorrect trajectory
and prevented it from reaching the InternationalSpace Station entirely. It eventually had to
land in New Mexico within two daysof flying. The second major error on
this test flight involved thrusters that anglethe craft to avoid damaging heat shields that
protect the craft during re entry.Both of these were primarily software issues,
(05:24):
but it diminished a lot of thealready waning confidence in Boeing's capability to deliver
on this project. It also ledto an in depth review between the company
and NASA, identifying eighty areas thatneeded to be updated and corrected. It
then took Boeing two and a halfyears to fix these errors and a few
(05:45):
other problems, as they ironed outevery potential issue they could think of.
But that's the nature of problems.They always lurk around the corner, and
Boeing were once again reacquainted with them. In April twenty twenty one, the
redesign and up dated Starliner was atthe launch site ready for its second orbital
flight test. During final testing,though an issue was discovered with thirteen engine
(06:09):
valves in the craft, and exposureto the salty air at Cape Canaveral,
Florida led to corrosion, and withtolerances so tight, it was simply unsafe
to launch. Boeing tried to remedythe problem on site, but eventually decided
canceling the test flight was the saferoption. A year later, in May
twenty twenty two, Boeing did manageanother orbital test flight. The spacecraft launched
(06:31):
and returned to Earth successfully after dockingat the International Space Station, but even
here it wasn't smooth sailing as somesystems didn't work as expected. Two orbital
maneuvering and altitude control thrusters also knownas OMAC thrusters, failed during the orbital
insertion phase of the flight, butthe spacecraft was able to compensate with the
(06:54):
remaining OMAC thrusters. A couple ofreaction control system thrusters used at the docking
all failed due to low chamber pressure, but with a safe flight it was
deemed a success. The next stepwould be a final test with crew on
board. Boeing had initially planned thecrew test flight for December twenty twenty two.
(07:15):
Unfortunately, Boeing's dance with delays returnedand the launch first got pushed to
February twenty twenty three, then Apriltwenty twenty three, and further to July
twenty twenty three, with another finalupdate in April twenty twenty four. So
why the latest delay, Well,the parachute problem persists and if humans are
(07:35):
going to be traveling in it,Boeing is taking absolutely no chances. Engineers
have found that the soft links usedon the suspension lines of Starliner's three main
parachutes cannot handle the load of thecraft if one of them fails, and
being able to land with just twoout of the three parachutes is a safety
requirement for NASA. Boeing engineers havenow created a more robust soft link and
(08:00):
redesigned the parachute system, and it'sset to be tested sometime in November twenty
twenty three. But then again anotherproblem surfaced more recently wiring. The P
two to one to three glass fabrictape covering the electrical wires in the capsule
was found to be a fire hazard. While it is commonly used in the
aerospace industry to wrap wires to preventchafing in certain conditions and at different oxygen
(08:24):
concentrations, it can be flammable,and Boeing would really prefer if the star
Liner did not self immolate, especiallywith crew on board. So as Boeing
tries to solve these they have wiselyrefrained from an exact launch date. But
if things go to plan, thestar Liner could be transporting crew sometime in
twenty twenty four. But while Boeingstruggles, the SpaceX Crew Dragon has been
(08:48):
running away with virtually no competition.Sure, they had a few Falcon nine
rockets explode during testing, but theirAugust twenty twenty three flight marks the seventh
successful crew transportation to the International SpaceStation, with the first happening way back
in twenty twenty. Their next missionis scheduled for early twenty twenty four,
and they've seen their initial six missioncontract with NASA jump to fourteen missions,
(09:13):
bringing their total contract value to almostfive billion dollars. In addition to that,
the cost for seats on Crew Dragonare almost half of the star Liner.
While SpaceX charges fifty five million dollarsper astronaut, Boeing comes in at
ninety million dollars as per NASA documents. Boeing did release a statement refuting that
(09:33):
cost, stating their capsule could carryfive astronauts as opposed to the standard four,
which means it would cost less.But until the company actually manages to
send a crew into orbit, we'lljust have to wait and see. Speaking
of costs, NASA contracting these twoBoeing and SpaceX instead of developing it themselves
saves the agency about twenty to thirtybillion dollars. So while NASA benefits from
(09:58):
lower costs, BOW and SpaceX getto have someone else put the bill for
development. And this is technology thatthey still hold intellectual property rights to,
allowing them to use it for othercommercial projects and profit from. In addition
to the cost benefits, this hasalso pushed the United States to once again
become the world leader in space.After twenty eleven, the United States had
(10:20):
zero percent of the global commercial launchmarket. Today, thanks to SpaceX alone,
they have seventy percent, and thishas resulted in NASA being a huge
contributor to the SpaceX revenue to thetune of millions every year. This is
significant and might be an indicator asto why Boeing continues to pursue the Starliner
(10:41):
project, even though spaceflight only accountsfor a small portion of the company revenue.
After the company lost billions due tothe grounding of its seven thirty seven
maxplane and air travel demand plummeting duringthe COVID pandemic, the star Liner project
might just be a revenue source worthpursuing. That being said, there's no
taking away that it is a projectthat is bleeding Boeing a lot of money
(11:05):
right now. Since the contract wasawarded, the company has already racked up
close to one point five billion inloss, and every delay costs it more.
Also, the contracts are just fortransporting crew to the International Space Station,
which will only be operational until twentythirty, so there's a timeframe on
that. Boeing, though, iscommitted to fulfilling its contractual obligations. Mark
(11:30):
Nappy, Boeing Starliner Vice President andprogram manager, reiterated they were still committed
to six crewed missions and one crewdetest flight to the International Space Station.
But more importantly, does Boeing seea future for the star Liner project beyond
the NASA contract? Well, Withoutthe contract, further development can get very
costly. In an interview, andBoeing Vice President of Exploration Systems, John
(11:54):
Shannon was asked if the company plannedto continue the program long term, he
gave an ambiguous answer, saying itwas a great question and he wished he
had an answer to it. Thisuncertainty indicates Boeing is yet to determine if
the entire project is even still worthit, and with the lead SpaceX has
on them, it might be harderto catch up, even if they do
(12:16):
get everything up and running smoothly forcommercial application beyond NASA. On the other
hand, there are alternatives that willvery soon become viable. Sierra Space didn't
manage to get the initial NASA contract, but their Dreamchaser spacecraft has been in
development for two decades and is prettymuch ready. Right alongside is Blue Origins
NW Glenn Spacecraft commercial space flights,and their demand will continue increasing as time
(12:41):
progresses. Right now, SpaceX hasthe competitive advantage, and any other player
that wants a piece of the piewill have to work very hard to catch
up. Sierras Space in Blue Originlook ready to take on the challenge,
but will Boeing finally join the frayas well. Only time will tell.
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