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November 27, 2023 14 mins
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(00:00):
On today's episode, we are divingdeep into the aftermath of the second Starship
test flight. What happened, why, and what the future looks like for
the world's largest rocket. This isthe space Race. On November eighteenth,
after two hundred and twelve days ofrepairs, tinkering, construction, investigation,

(00:20):
and testing, SpaceX was ready tofly their Starship once again. It's safe
to say that the second test flightof the world's largest rocket was much more
successful than its first, but theSaturday launch had both its astounding successes and
disappointing setbacks. First, let's quicklygo over the flight itself to give context

(00:41):
to those who weren't able to catchit live. At around eight am Eastern
Standard Time on November eighteenth, theteam at Starbas Boca Chica, Texas began
the fueling process. Everything went verysmoothly here, with the team taking their
planned hold at T minus forty secondsto double check that everything was good to
go before continuing. At T minusfive seconds, the deluge system kicked on,

(01:03):
shooting thousands of gallons of water inpreparation for engine ignition, which happened
a few seconds later. At Tplus four seconds. We had liftoff,
Starship rose easily into the air,no strange drifting, no slow climb,
just a steady acceleration. As itleft the pad. At T plus one
minute twelve seconds, Starship was travelingso fast that it had already hit max

(01:27):
q, the point at which thevehicle was under the most amount of dynamic
pressure it would experience for the entireflight. At T plus two minutes forty
most booster engines begin to shut down. This was done slowly, not all
at once. You can see theengines shut down in small groups if you
watch carefully. At almost the sametime, Starship's engines activated, using the

(01:49):
flame diverter events at the top ofBooster nine to perform a hot staging maneuver
and ease the two vehicles apart withoutlosing momentum. At T plus two minutes
fifve d, the two stages areseparate and Booster nine begins its flip for
the boost backburn maneuver that will takeit back to the Gulf of Mexico,
but it never gets there. Theflip is good, the trajectory looks stable,

(02:12):
but several engines fail to light,and a small explosion is seen at
the rear of the booster. AtT plus three minutes and twenty seconds,
the flight termination system on Booster nineis activated and it's blown to pieces.
Ship twenty five, meanwhile, isdoing just fine and in fact is perfect
for almost five more minutes of flight. It isn't until puffs of vapor are

(02:32):
spotted at T plus eight minutes orso that something appears to go wrong and
we lose telemetry. It's later confirmedthat the FTS was activated for Ship twenty
five around this time, and bothvehicles are lost. However, with a
flight time almost double that of theprevious test on April twentieth, and every
primary test objective completed smoothly, SpaceXstaff and observers on the ground have cause

(02:57):
for celebration, but every success couldalways be better in spaceflight, and so
while thinking ahead to the future,it's time we looked at the aftermath of
IFT two. Let's start with thebiggest question on everyone's minds. How did
the pad hold up? The shortanswer is very well. The longer answer
is that the launch pad and hardwarewere the absolute envps of this flight.

(03:22):
The condition of the Starbase pad wasnotorious in the aftermath of the Starship's first
test flight back in April, withouta flame diverter or really any sort of
serious attempts to mitigate the massive overpressureand explosive power from the rocket's first stage.
A gigantic crater was blown into thesand at Bocachica, very nearly obliterating

(03:42):
the OLM and mangling vital parts ofthe launch tower and tank farm. This
damage was a huge concern in theFAA mishap investigation, as chunks of debris
were flung huge distances from the launchsite, forcing SpaceX to really hustle to
install their planned flame diverter system.The initial hull was filled in This new
system was the now famous water cooledsteel plate system, a reverse shower head

(04:06):
that pumps thousands of gallons of waterupwards and away from the underside of the
rocket. The idea was that thewater would act to both cool the steel
plates sitting just under the engines ofthe first stage booster, as well as
contained some of the noise and pressurecreated by the initial liftoff thrust, and
it worked like a charm. Assoon as that clock hit T minus five

(04:28):
seconds and the deluge turned on,we immediately saw that things were going to
be different with this launch. Justlike in the recent static fire tests,
the water absorbed most of the powerof the Raptor engine array and turned into
steam, giving us this great viewof pulsating clouds of water vapor instead of
gritty dust clouds filled with dangerous chunksof flying concrete. The pad itself had

(04:51):
technicians on it after only three hoursof waiting, and less than a day
later, Elon was standing on thething, giving us a close picture of
the basically pristine site. Elon postedon x just inspected the Starship launch pad
and it is in great condition.No refurbishment needed to the water cooled steel

(05:12):
plate for next launch, an astoundingdifference from April twentieth. Those engineers deserve
a standing ovation. That does notmean that there was no damage, however,
with clear shots of dangling cables fromthe chopsticks and a battered quick disconnect,
proving that even a perfect launch candamage your hardware. But this isn't
anything that can't be fixed. Launchesalways damage some sort of the launch apparatus.

(05:36):
It's a hazard of using explosions topush vehicles into space. Now,
for the flight itself, let's splitthis into the good things and the bad
things. You're gonna want to stickaround for both. First off, let's
look at what went wrong here,because honestly, it's not a whole lot.
Yes, there were two activations ofthe flight termination systems, but that

(05:57):
in itself is actually a good partof this test. Which might sound weird,
but I'll explain why in a second. During the liftoff phase, it
was noted that there were a coupleof pieces of something flying around near the
base of the OLM. It lookeda bit like a piece of corrugated metal,
but it could have been anything.Obviously, anything not nailed down well
enough would have been thrown clear.So really this is an indicator that the

(06:20):
site needs to be more thoroughly checkedfor this sort of material before a launch.
All of the other bad parts ofthis launch were more or less related
to the maneuvers that both parts ofthis rocket attempted just after stage separation.
First, the booster attempted its flipfor the boost back burn. Honestly,
the flip itself looked great and everythingseemed to align well, but something in

(06:44):
the rocket really didn't like that maneuver, and there was a small explosion at
the engines when they tried to startback up. It's likely that the Booster
could have made the attempt to flyback to the Gulf of Mexico with just
a few of its engines, buttoo many engines failed to light, which
very likely caused an imbalance in thethrust. The Booster began to swiftly fly
off course and the FTS was activatedout of caution, which was definitely the

(07:08):
right call. Meanwhile, Starship itselfwas last seen accelerating in what looked like
a perfect trajectory. Everything was goingvery smoothly until suddenly it wasn't. Some
puffs of air and the engines cutout suddenly, seconds before the SpaceX team
intended to do so. At first, this looked like a simple loss of

(07:29):
telemetry that the ship was likely stillgliding on its way to Hawaii, but
unfortunately, it was confirmed that theFDS had been activated for Starship as well
a time of reporting. It's stilla little unclear as to if the FTS
activated automatically or if SpaceX manually flippedthe switch, but there are a couple
of likely causes. Some observers havereported that the Starship may have been slightly

(07:55):
off course, which could have endangereda local population, or that the elds
on Chip twenty five hadn't held up, breaking the ship open and forcing the
fts to blow. Ship twenty fivehad been a very well used test article,
and those welds had been an issuepreviously, along with the ship losing
heat tiles that had to be replacedright up until days before the launch.

(08:18):
Whatever the reason, Ship twenty fivedid not break up cleanly, and it
was reported that the nose cone andflaps had survived the initial explosion. They
likely burned up on the way down, but that's still a potential hazard that
the team will have to deal within latership variants. But that was the
only bad part of this launch,so let's talk about the good stuff first

(08:39):
and most important, everyone of theprimary objectives for this flight were hit.
Starship flew from the launchpad in acontrolled manner without giving the boring company any
ideas about new directions to take theirdrilling techniques. Then, not only did
the first stage booster maintain an optimalnumber of active engines during the ascent,
but all thirty three engines in itsarray stayed active, gimbled, and shut

(09:03):
down properly, an amazing feat,especially when you consider what happened in flight
test one, and it's likely downto the new electronic thrust vector control system
in Booster nine, as well asthe upgrades to the engine bay plumbing to
stop any leaks from becoming fires.The ETV control system was also just generally
responsible for the rocket's ability to veryeasily stay on its trajectory. For this

(09:28):
flight, every gimbling engine operated perfectly, which was especially visible just after stage
separation, where the three gimbling centerengines on Ship twenty five were seen snapping
quickly into place once Booster nine hadmoved away from the line of fire.
And speaking of separation, the hotstaging maneuver that was added to this launch
did exactly what it was intended todo. The smooth separation was the primary

(09:54):
goal of this flight, and italso marked the last flawless thing to work
in the whole exercise, so itwas gratifying to see all that testing with
the avionics and the reorientation of someof the launch hardware to accommodate for the
new height of the rocket was worthit. So first and most obviously,
the FAA is going to have todo a mishap investigation. In fact,

(10:16):
they've already announced it. We canhear the booze and we get it,
but this is literally their whole job. In fact, they don't have a
choice here. Once the FDS blueBooster nine to pieces, the FAA was
obligated to complete an investigation. Butthe good news is that with no reported
damage to property, environment or dangerto people, this investigation should be much

(10:39):
quicker than the last one. Andon top of that, there won't likely
be any large changes to the missionhardware this time, and so an environmental
review from the Fisheries and Wildlife crewwon't be necessary. However, this does
mean that another launch this year isjust wildly unlikely to happen. Elon musk
All but firm this with a poston X where he says Starship Flight three

(11:03):
hardware should be ready to fly inthree to four weeks. Honestly, it
probably wasn't likely to happen even ifStarship had been able to hit both of
its secondary goals. Either, there'sjust not a whole lot of time to
reconfigure the next pair of vehicles,plan a flight, and launch it before
the holidays, although it would havebeen cool to see SpaceX try for it.
Speaking of what is likely to evenhappen for the next test flight.

(11:28):
SpaceX is known for making small,incremental tests so that they can really focus
on problem areas as they come up, so it's a pretty good bet that
the company will attempt to launch againwith the exact same mission profile. Of
course, the focus this time willlikely be on nailing that boost back flip
and the glide to Hawaii. Theyalready proved they can launch their big rocket,

(11:50):
and it really looked like it hadthe power to get to orbit,
so they need to prove those technicalabilities before trying the next big phase.
With that comes the implication of morehardware testing. Ship twenty five and Starship
in general had been having a problemkeeping its heat shield tiles on. One
or two falling off during launch isn'tsuch a big deal, but those can
add up. SpaceX needs to naildown a good adhesive and attachment procedure,

(12:16):
just like NASA did with the oldshuttles. The next vehicles are likely to
be Ship twenty eight and Booster ten, with Ship twenty eight showcasing some big
leaps in tech over Ship twenty five. Booster ten is a little more elusive,
but it's likely that the super heavyfirst stage will see more minor tweaks,
so it can navigate that flip betterthan Booster nine did. So when

(12:37):
is a more realistic timeframe for thenext test launch. Obviously SpaceX is really
chomping at the bit to do anotherone. They have several test boosters and
starships lined up for flights, butthe odds of it happening in the winter
are shaky. It is possible thata launch at the end of January or
sometime in February could happen. TheFAA has been under pressure from the government

(12:58):
to act faster, and SpaceX willwaste exactly zero time in making the next
vehicle ready for flights. But atthe very least, it's safe to say
that a flight in March would bealmost a certainty if it hasn't happened before
then. This also implies that Starshipcannot complete enough test flights in time for
a twenty twenty five Artmiss three mission. It's just too much work to get

(13:20):
done in between mishap investigations and hardwarereconfigurations. For NASA's part, they have
said that they want at least sixtytest launches before they'll trust crew inside a
Starship which is more lenient than whatSpaceX President and CEO g When Shotwell wants.
When discussing the Dear Moon Commercial Starshipmission, which was due to launch

(13:41):
in twenty twenty three originally and takea crew of artists on an orbital trek
around the Moon, Shotwell says thatshe wants at least one hundred launches before
trusting the vehicle with an untrained crew. Like that fair enough, I suppose
we've all seen the Simpsons. Buteven if SpaceX can really hustle and comple
all the testing targets NASA needs,that's the orbital test, the refueling test,

(14:05):
the Moon travel and landing tests,and all the hardware tests for the
human landing system variant of the Starship, it just doesn't seem possible that they
could get all of that done intwo years. But with so much extra
room in the Artemis schedule, itdefinitely won't matter much. Artemis three can
be delayed for the little bit ofextra time Starship is likely to need.

(14:26):
Just like with the Falcon Nins testing, Starship is only going to get more
and more consistent with each flight.This next year alone should prove to be
some of the most exciting times forthis new space race.
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