September 5, 2025 • 13 mins
Taking a statistical look at Saturday's Utah vs. Cal Poly matchup.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Welcome back everybody to the Statistically Speaking podcast, You Nation Podcast.
I am I am Ivan, you fan Ivan, as I'm
known on Twitter. Today, I'm joined by my three friends, Matt, Joe,
and Dustin. We're here to discuss in a gentlemanly manner,
the upcoming matchup between the University of Utah and the
(00:40):
cow Poly Mustangs in Salt Lake City four pm on
a Saturday. I'm thinking probably a top twenty five match
up here, guys.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Uh, that's why the time for this one right to
take on u c l A and the road Bowl
past midnight on the But.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
At his appoint in viewing.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
You talk about power four last week. This week it's
something else entirely.
Speaker 4 (01:14):
So I'd like to say that this is one of
those teams that you say, Okay, you know, Utah is
still better be focused because you don't want this team
to sneak up on them. This team's this team, they're
They're the in the preseason polls for the Big Sky Conference.
They were ranked by the coaches in the media at
eleventh out of twelve.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
But but they had a good game their first.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Game, they beat Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
Yeah, and they've got a dual threat quarterback of their
own ty Diffenbach, I think you saw you.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Say it, and classes paid off and.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Hey, you know, and FCS teams are a little different
this time because of the transfer portal, you know, Diffenbach,
if that's how you say it. He came from Pitt,
an original pit recruit, and the running back came from Temple,
so they've got a few.
Speaker 6 (02:11):
Guys starting.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Came from Utah.
Speaker 5 (02:14):
Yeah oh oh actually, oh yeah.
Speaker 6 (02:17):
I think is playing for cal Pauly now, yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
Cool, So that's gonna be crazy for him coming back
into Rice Echols and.
Speaker 5 (02:25):
Can you imagine, Oh, that's gonna be a crazy feeling.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
So so yeah, I'll throw out my prediction real quick
just to get this, you know, done and get it rolling.
Speaker 5 (02:38):
I think it's gonna be a really close game.
Speaker 4 (02:39):
Actually, I think Utah is going to be kind of
feeling that, I don't know the euphoria the first victory
and just think they can walk right through it. So
I'm gonna go Utah sixty seven cal Poly zero.
Speaker 5 (02:55):
I don't think cal Pauly is even gonna score even
if Utah plays their second string.
Speaker 7 (02:59):
I think that my advanced metrics when I do vicecore predictions,
the Vegas line is a big part of it because
they're really good what they do.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
There is no Vegas line for this game.
Speaker 8 (03:14):
And when people ask me for betting advice, which don't
my betting advices. Don't bet, but don't bet on these
games that the lines, when you've got like a thirty
five or a forty point line, it all just comes
down to what did the winning team have for lunch
that day? And you know, somebody break up with their girlfriend,
(03:35):
and it's just it's just not something that you can
you can predict.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
But we do have some Vegas statistics. I just want
to go over them a little bit.
Speaker 8 (03:44):
So FBI you're looking at advanced metrics, Utah looks to
be about forty seven ish points better.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Than cal Poly. And there isn't over under from Vegas a.
Speaker 8 (03:56):
Fifty one and a half, which would predict a final
score of forty nine to two. So they have a
forty seven point a forty seven point VIC three there
comes to forty nine forty nine.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Yeah, I know it over doing a safety for cal Poly.
Speaker 8 (04:11):
I don't think when you do what I do, the
points they add up one by one. It's a very
strange universe that looks nothing like football. People sometimes say
to me, they say, well, Joji, you must really love
football to do this. So well, I love mad I
like football, so this is a totally different gig going
in my head. But there is no reason why cal
(04:34):
Poly should score except that eventually Utah is probably going
to stop paying attention.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
It is not an important game to them.
Speaker 8 (04:42):
No one cares if this isn't This isn't Matt West
days where Utah has to you know, put on the
throat lesser teams in order to impress everybody.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Utah is their conference.
Speaker 8 (04:55):
Utah gets an opportunity to get everything they could possibly want,
right so, so they don't need to worry about this
game at all.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
So I do think that we'll see some substitutions and
lack of attention and things like that. So I'm probably
going to pick a score.
Speaker 8 (05:12):
I would say, I'll say forty nine to three. I
think I think Utah I'll have a bad drive. Cal Foley,
you'll have a good punt return and and kick a
field goal at some point in like the third quarter.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
But yeah, I'll go forty nine to three. I think it.
Speaker 6 (05:31):
I agree with all of that, Joe. The score is
really entirely up to Kyle.
Speaker 9 (05:36):
Kyle if he decides to leave the starters in late
into the third and I will say at the UCLA game,
Dan Pier played one more series than I expected him too.
I expected the backups in that second to last series,
and they didn't come until the very last one. So
Kyle may be in a position where he's like, look,
these guys still need to figure out how they're playing together,
(05:56):
and he may keep the starters on the field a
little longer. The defensive second team came in with three
series to go, so I suspect we'll get a late score,
they'll give up a late.
Speaker 6 (06:10):
Touchdown. I'll say touchdown. I think they'll get seven. But
I agree with you.
Speaker 9 (06:14):
Utah probably puts up fifty so forty forty nine to seven,
fifty two to seventh.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
So that was gonna be for A. That was gonna
be my actually guess as well. So I think that
we're gonna see, you know, for the US, you'll see
I think you're gonna see Ficklan come in at quarterback
because he came in. He came in later in the
game against against UCLA, which actually surprised me. I was
(06:44):
expecting Isaac just given the depth chart and who was
named at QB two. But I think you'll see Fickland.
I think you'll see substitutions. And like you said, on defense,
I do also think I know Utah. I've seen touchdowns
scored on Utah with their starters in against teams who
had no business scoring on Utah. So I would give
(07:06):
cal Pauly a touchdown here.
Speaker 9 (07:09):
This is a this is a former Washington State head coach,
which has historically been a team that Utah has let
score touchdowns when they had no business doing.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
So Yep, no exactly, So I think I think I'm talking.
Speaker 8 (07:20):
About Washing Ever ever understandable.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
I think a score estimate guess for me would be
fifty eight to seven something like that.
Speaker 4 (07:34):
So I like that higher amount elegant, gentlemanly. Well, they
have a completely rebuilt offensive line, they only have one
returning starter, and uh, they gave up two sacks to
San Diego. And I look at that and I think,
even if you have the backups in, you know, for
(07:54):
Utah probably gonna get a lot of sacks in this game.
And so I kind of look at that and I
want to actually talk back to the quarterback thing, because
I've had about three or four people direct message me
on Twitter already just saying, hey, do you think birds
actually second? And it was just coach speak to put
Wilson at second, and I think it's I still think
(08:17):
if if let's say Dampier got hurt, I still think
Wilson would be the guy that would go in. This
was just a great opportunity to let Bird Fickland get
in there and get some game experience. Wilson has plenty
of that because of last season, So in this situation,
if they pulled Dampier at halftime, then I could see
Wilson taking the third quarter of Fickland taking the fourth quarter.
(08:37):
But really they need to get Fickland that experience because
you want to have two guys that can can go
out there and play if anything happens.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
One thing I really want to see, I agree with you,
by the way, Matt, I want to see the receivers
for Utah get open. I want to see them. Meriweather
had the one catch in the game that was a
deep and that was good. He also drew a really
good PI. But there were moments in that game where
(09:07):
for the you, Stan Pierre was sitting in the pocket
for eight seconds and he's looking downfield and there's nothing right.
So I think, I think I want to see the
receivers for Utah actually contribute heavily to this game. This
is a good time to do it, not just not
just for stats, but to get comfortable, like get comfortable
(09:27):
on the field, get comfortable with each other, just an
opportunity to play against the defense that isn't their own
in practice, if that makes sense at all.
Speaker 5 (09:36):
So, yeah, you need that.
Speaker 9 (09:37):
Dimension, particularly the receivers who are listed in the depth
chart and roster as receivers.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Right, played great, right, so great, but he can't.
Speaker 6 (09:47):
They did a good job of limit you have stats.
Speaker 9 (09:49):
He played forty five snaps, about twenty on offense, twenty
on defense. But he can't be the only offensive receiving
weapon that that can't can you for the entire season
because Utah's going to need him to play nickelback and
eventually they're going to need him to play a full
game at nickelback when Utah is playing somebody who passes
(10:12):
the ball a lot like Texas Tech, who Utah is
going to see in Salt Lake, and that's going to
be a huge game. He's not going to be available
to play twenty five snaps on offense, and so I'd
like to really see the Utah wide receivers who are
listed at wide receiver, get open, get comfortable, get on
the same page as their quarterback, and make them plays.
Speaker 6 (10:33):
Particularly against what should be a very overmatch FTS team.
Speaker 9 (10:37):
They're not a good They looked good last week against
San Diego, but they're not a good FCS team. This
isn't you know, They're not going to be competing for
an FCS national championship, and it's an FCS team anyway,
So it would be a good chance for the wide
receivers to start to feel like they know what they're
doing and they're able to get some confidence.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
I don't see I don't see cal Paly's defense playing
much press coverage or man coverage this game. I think
a lot of it's going to be zone.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
So yeah, just still just drop it to cover.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Packages exactly basically a prevent defense.
Speaker 8 (11:13):
And there's there's no reason why the youth players should
not be able to.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
Just blow the top off the defense.
Speaker 8 (11:21):
That's something historically they have essentially never been able to do.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Really, not in my memory have I.
Speaker 8 (11:28):
Ever felt like that was that was something that was
really an arrow at their quiver. Even when the offenses
were really good, and even when we've seen wide receivers
who would go on to have successful enough NFL.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Careers to suggest that they could have been real playmakers,
it's just never happened. And I would I would love
to see it.
Speaker 8 (11:49):
If I could wave a magic wand and add one
thing to the use, it would be that kind of playmaking.
So I'm not sort of a ton of hope. And
if we're going to see it, we'll see it this
weekend against this.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
For sure, for sure.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
All Right, guys, well, I think everybody else have anything
they want to say.
Speaker 5 (12:10):
I just want to, you know, since this is statistically speaking.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
I want to add a quick stat and that is
that the receivers had four catches for fifty eight yards
in this game. And there's probably not many games in
which a team wins by thirty three points where your
receivers only contribute that much unless you're, you know, one
of the military schools.
Speaker 5 (12:34):
So I think you hit that on the head. Ivan.
Speaker 4 (12:37):
They have got to add that dimension. They've got to
get that fixed, because it won't be sustainable. It makes
it too easy for defenses to clog up the middle
of the field and that that could come to bite
them later on in the season.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
Exactly.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Okay, awesome, Well everybody, thank you so much for watching.
That's our coverage, that's what we think is going to
happen on Saturday. Let us know in the comments what
you think is gonna happen. I'd be astut to see
if anybody thinks cal Poly pulls this off, honestly, but
make sure you like and subscribe, and again, thank you
so much for watching. Statistically speaking, a Ute Nation podcast.
Speaker 6 (13:15):
We'll see you later.
Welcome back everybody to the Statistically Speaking podcast, You Nation Podcast.
I am I am Ivan, you fan Ivan, as I'm
known on Twitter. Today, I'm joined by my three friends, Matt, Joe,
and Dustin. We're here to discuss in a gentlemanly manner,
the upcoming matchup between the University of Utah and the
(00:40):
cow Poly Mustangs in Salt Lake City four pm on
a Saturday. I'm thinking probably a top twenty five match
up here, guys.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Uh, that's why the time for this one right to
take on u c l A and the road Bowl
past midnight on the But.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
At his appoint in viewing.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
You talk about power four last week. This week it's
something else entirely.
Speaker 4 (01:14):
So I'd like to say that this is one of
those teams that you say, Okay, you know, Utah is
still better be focused because you don't want this team
to sneak up on them. This team's this team, they're
They're the in the preseason polls for the Big Sky Conference.
They were ranked by the coaches in the media at
eleventh out of twelve.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
But but they had a good game their first.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Game, they beat Yeah.
Speaker 4 (01:44):
Yeah, and they've got a dual threat quarterback of their
own ty Diffenbach, I think you saw you.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Say it, and classes paid off and.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Hey, you know, and FCS teams are a little different
this time because of the transfer portal, you know, Diffenbach,
if that's how you say it. He came from Pitt,
an original pit recruit, and the running back came from Temple,
so they've got a few.
Speaker 6 (02:11):
Guys starting.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Came from Utah.
Speaker 5 (02:14):
Yeah oh oh actually, oh yeah.
Speaker 6 (02:17):
I think is playing for cal Pauly now, yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
Cool, So that's gonna be crazy for him coming back
into Rice Echols and.
Speaker 5 (02:25):
Can you imagine, Oh, that's gonna be a crazy feeling.
Speaker 4 (02:28):
So so yeah, I'll throw out my prediction real quick
just to get this, you know, done and get it rolling.
Speaker 5 (02:38):
I think it's gonna be a really close game.
Speaker 4 (02:39):
Actually, I think Utah is going to be kind of
feeling that, I don't know the euphoria the first victory
and just think they can walk right through it. So
I'm gonna go Utah sixty seven cal Poly zero.
Speaker 5 (02:55):
I don't think cal Pauly is even gonna score even
if Utah plays their second string.
Speaker 7 (02:59):
I think that my advanced metrics when I do vicecore predictions,
the Vegas line is a big part of it because
they're really good what they do.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
There is no Vegas line for this game.
Speaker 8 (03:14):
And when people ask me for betting advice, which don't
my betting advices. Don't bet, but don't bet on these
games that the lines, when you've got like a thirty
five or a forty point line, it all just comes
down to what did the winning team have for lunch
that day? And you know, somebody break up with their girlfriend,
(03:35):
and it's just it's just not something that you can
you can predict.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
But we do have some Vegas statistics. I just want
to go over them a little bit.
Speaker 8 (03:44):
So FBI you're looking at advanced metrics, Utah looks to
be about forty seven ish points better.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Than cal Poly. And there isn't over under from Vegas a.
Speaker 8 (03:56):
Fifty one and a half, which would predict a final
score of forty nine to two. So they have a
forty seven point a forty seven point VIC three there
comes to forty nine forty nine.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Yeah, I know it over doing a safety for cal Poly.
Speaker 8 (04:11):
I don't think when you do what I do, the
points they add up one by one. It's a very
strange universe that looks nothing like football. People sometimes say
to me, they say, well, Joji, you must really love
football to do this. So well, I love mad I
like football, so this is a totally different gig going
in my head. But there is no reason why cal
(04:34):
Poly should score except that eventually Utah is probably going
to stop paying attention.
Speaker 3 (04:39):
It is not an important game to them.
Speaker 8 (04:42):
No one cares if this isn't This isn't Matt West
days where Utah has to you know, put on the
throat lesser teams in order to impress everybody.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Utah is their conference.
Speaker 8 (04:55):
Utah gets an opportunity to get everything they could possibly want,
right so, so they don't need to worry about this
game at all.
Speaker 3 (05:02):
So I do think that we'll see some substitutions and
lack of attention and things like that. So I'm probably
going to pick a score.
Speaker 8 (05:12):
I would say, I'll say forty nine to three. I
think I think Utah I'll have a bad drive. Cal Foley,
you'll have a good punt return and and kick a
field goal at some point in like the third quarter.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
But yeah, I'll go forty nine to three. I think it.
Speaker 6 (05:31):
I agree with all of that, Joe. The score is
really entirely up to Kyle.
Speaker 9 (05:36):
Kyle if he decides to leave the starters in late
into the third and I will say at the UCLA game,
Dan Pier played one more series than I expected him too.
I expected the backups in that second to last series,
and they didn't come until the very last one. So
Kyle may be in a position where he's like, look,
these guys still need to figure out how they're playing together,
(05:56):
and he may keep the starters on the field a
little longer. The defensive second team came in with three
series to go, so I suspect we'll get a late score,
they'll give up a late.
Speaker 6 (06:10):
Touchdown. I'll say touchdown. I think they'll get seven. But
I agree with you.
Speaker 9 (06:14):
Utah probably puts up fifty so forty forty nine to seven,
fifty two to seventh.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
So that was gonna be for A. That was gonna
be my actually guess as well. So I think that
we're gonna see, you know, for the US, you'll see
I think you're gonna see Ficklan come in at quarterback
because he came in. He came in later in the
game against against UCLA, which actually surprised me. I was
(06:44):
expecting Isaac just given the depth chart and who was
named at QB two. But I think you'll see Fickland.
I think you'll see substitutions. And like you said, on defense,
I do also think I know Utah. I've seen touchdowns
scored on Utah with their starters in against teams who
had no business scoring on Utah. So I would give
(07:06):
cal Pauly a touchdown here.
Speaker 9 (07:09):
This is a this is a former Washington State head coach,
which has historically been a team that Utah has let
score touchdowns when they had no business doing.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
So Yep, no exactly, So I think I think I'm talking.
Speaker 8 (07:20):
About Washing Ever ever understandable.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
I think a score estimate guess for me would be
fifty eight to seven something like that.
Speaker 4 (07:34):
So I like that higher amount elegant, gentlemanly. Well, they
have a completely rebuilt offensive line, they only have one
returning starter, and uh, they gave up two sacks to
San Diego. And I look at that and I think,
even if you have the backups in, you know, for
(07:54):
Utah probably gonna get a lot of sacks in this game.
And so I kind of look at that and I
want to actually talk back to the quarterback thing, because
I've had about three or four people direct message me
on Twitter already just saying, hey, do you think birds
actually second? And it was just coach speak to put
Wilson at second, and I think it's I still think
(08:17):
if if let's say Dampier got hurt, I still think
Wilson would be the guy that would go in. This
was just a great opportunity to let Bird Fickland get
in there and get some game experience. Wilson has plenty
of that because of last season, So in this situation,
if they pulled Dampier at halftime, then I could see
Wilson taking the third quarter of Fickland taking the fourth quarter.
(08:37):
But really they need to get Fickland that experience because
you want to have two guys that can can go
out there and play if anything happens.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
One thing I really want to see, I agree with you,
by the way, Matt, I want to see the receivers
for Utah get open. I want to see them. Meriweather
had the one catch in the game that was a
deep and that was good. He also drew a really
good PI. But there were moments in that game where
(09:07):
for the you, Stan Pierre was sitting in the pocket
for eight seconds and he's looking downfield and there's nothing right.
So I think, I think I want to see the
receivers for Utah actually contribute heavily to this game. This
is a good time to do it, not just not
just for stats, but to get comfortable, like get comfortable
(09:27):
on the field, get comfortable with each other, just an
opportunity to play against the defense that isn't their own
in practice, if that makes sense at all.
Speaker 5 (09:36):
So, yeah, you need that.
Speaker 9 (09:37):
Dimension, particularly the receivers who are listed in the depth
chart and roster as receivers.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Right, played great, right, so great, but he can't.
Speaker 6 (09:47):
They did a good job of limit you have stats.
Speaker 9 (09:49):
He played forty five snaps, about twenty on offense, twenty
on defense. But he can't be the only offensive receiving
weapon that that can't can you for the entire season
because Utah's going to need him to play nickelback and
eventually they're going to need him to play a full
game at nickelback when Utah is playing somebody who passes
(10:12):
the ball a lot like Texas Tech, who Utah is
going to see in Salt Lake, and that's going to
be a huge game. He's not going to be available
to play twenty five snaps on offense, and so I'd
like to really see the Utah wide receivers who are
listed at wide receiver, get open, get comfortable, get on
the same page as their quarterback, and make them plays.
Speaker 6 (10:33):
Particularly against what should be a very overmatch FTS team.
Speaker 9 (10:37):
They're not a good They looked good last week against
San Diego, but they're not a good FCS team. This
isn't you know, They're not going to be competing for
an FCS national championship, and it's an FCS team anyway,
So it would be a good chance for the wide
receivers to start to feel like they know what they're
doing and they're able to get some confidence.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
I don't see I don't see cal Paly's defense playing
much press coverage or man coverage this game. I think
a lot of it's going to be zone.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
So yeah, just still just drop it to cover.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Packages exactly basically a prevent defense.
Speaker 8 (11:13):
And there's there's no reason why the youth players should
not be able to.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
Just blow the top off the defense.
Speaker 8 (11:21):
That's something historically they have essentially never been able to do.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Really, not in my memory have I.
Speaker 8 (11:28):
Ever felt like that was that was something that was
really an arrow at their quiver. Even when the offenses
were really good, and even when we've seen wide receivers
who would go on to have successful enough NFL.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Careers to suggest that they could have been real playmakers,
it's just never happened. And I would I would love
to see it.
Speaker 8 (11:49):
If I could wave a magic wand and add one
thing to the use, it would be that kind of playmaking.
So I'm not sort of a ton of hope. And
if we're going to see it, we'll see it this
weekend against this.
Speaker 3 (12:04):
For sure, for sure.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
All Right, guys, well, I think everybody else have anything
they want to say.
Speaker 5 (12:10):
I just want to, you know, since this is statistically speaking.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
I want to add a quick stat and that is
that the receivers had four catches for fifty eight yards
in this game. And there's probably not many games in
which a team wins by thirty three points where your
receivers only contribute that much unless you're, you know, one
of the military schools.
Speaker 5 (12:34):
So I think you hit that on the head. Ivan.
Speaker 4 (12:37):
They have got to add that dimension. They've got to
get that fixed, because it won't be sustainable. It makes
it too easy for defenses to clog up the middle
of the field and that that could come to bite
them later on in the season.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
Exactly.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Okay, awesome, Well everybody, thank you so much for watching.
That's our coverage, that's what we think is going to
happen on Saturday. Let us know in the comments what
you think is gonna happen. I'd be astut to see
if anybody thinks cal Poly pulls this off, honestly, but
make sure you like and subscribe, and again, thank you
so much for watching. Statistically speaking, a Ute Nation podcast.
Speaker 6 (13:15):
We'll see you later.
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com