The Founders Show #485

You are invited , and so join us for a CUP of TEA, Hot and Spicy, to Listen to and/or Talk on The Founders' Show, a Politically Incorrect Christian Talk Show, with your host, the Spingiree Baba of New Orleans, Chaplain Hy McEnery and Christopher Tidmore.

Episode Transcript

(00:02):
Battles and politicians addressed the digit datasand magicians trus you see the money,
then you don't. There's nothing tofeel the holes while then feel in their
pockets, bide holes, the piliticiansbouncing down the road. Every bodysuition to

(00:24):
no more corruption and dysfunction. It'sgoing to take Divide Deven Show putting kicks
off September thirtieth, ladies and gentlemen, and goes through this entire week.
And what will that mean for theleading candidates for governor? Is their chance
for Sean Wilson to be kicked outby Hunter Lundy or Steve wagons Back they

(00:45):
did well in the debates, willit mean anything? Also in the down
ticket races? What is exactly goingon Attorney General's race? Are we going
to see some stealth candidates like MartyMalley come out over the Solicitor general who's
been the favorite in the race.What's gonna happen in the Secretary of States
race? What's happening in the downticket races? We are literally getting the
Guru to join us, John Cuvionof famed polster background, He's gonna be

(01:07):
joining us here on the Founder Show. Cuvion. My goodness, Christopher,
that's gonna be exciting, and Godbless all author you and now listening to
the founders. So the voice ofthe founding fathers, your founding fathers,
coming to you deep within the bowelsof those mystic and cryptic alligator swamps of
the Big Easy, that old CrescentCity, New Orleans, Louisiana. And

(01:32):
Hi, up on top of thatold liberty cypress tree covered in Spanish moss
way out on the Eagles Branch,is none other then you's been Gary Baba
of the Republic Chaplain Hi mcgenry withChristopher didmore You roving a reporter, resident
radical moderate and associate editor of theLouisiana Weekly at Louisiana Weekly dot net,
where if you go to it you'llsee our endorsements for the various races.

(01:53):
Might give you a little bit ofan indication, of course, we besides
the governor's race, we got alot of down ticket races. We've got
constitutional amendments on the ballot, someinteresting ideas, propositions in Orleans and other
parishes, parish president races going on. All of this is going on,
but frankly, high there has beenmore going on in this governor's race with

(02:13):
less enthusiasm than I've ever seen inany particular election. The level of voter
apathy is just overwhelming people, andpartially I think because people think, well,
Jeff Lanry is gonna win, sowhat's the point. But you get
all these competitive down ticket races.That's kind of stupid, you know.
You know. It also may bethe fact that people are just worn out

(02:35):
with all the election election you knowactivity going on, all the advertisements,
all the negative advertising. Uh,It's it's exhausting, I think, and
people are just saying, who cares, whoever gets in, there's going to
be a bum anyway. We worryabout it. I agree, which is
the same, But I agree withyou in the sense that not the bum
part, though, I'm sure alot of people think that, yeah,

(02:57):
that's what I'm talking about, Butgeneral public, I think it's the federal
I think it's federal exhaustion that regardlessof where you fall for Trump, Biden
or anything in between, people arelike, we never actually get a break
from elections, right, I mean, we've had a presidential race going on
since January sixth to basically since thelast race ended. For better or for
work. Never get away from you, never get away from it. You

(03:17):
never have Can we actually govern?And the fact is we don't. It's
like our government, our politicians ratherthan government. They run for the next
election. That's our work now.So we're gonna get a little bit of
an expert view in all of thiswith our friend John Cuvion. John Cuvion
is the president and proprietor of JamesAnalytics and is one of the foremost pollsters,

(03:40):
not only in Louisiana, but inthe United States. He polls elections
and races and issues all over thecountry. And John, welcome yet again,
Welcome back to the program with mckenryand Tidmore and John. One quick
question before we get going. Oneof my favorite dishes is redfish, cuvion,
do you make? Are you achef yourself? Do you you make

(04:02):
redfish? Gooviion. I can't sayI've made any couthy on dishes. We'll
tell me you think that will haveanything to do with this coming election.
Red hot sauce, a little redhots agent hot sauce. I don't know
where high gets of stuff, butthat one's actually weirdly entertaining. John.
I used to make this in ourduck hut can Boone's farm, many many
years ago. What this has todo with the governor's race except the fact

(04:24):
that everything seems like it's in astew right now. I have no idea
though. Actually that is kind ofa good analogy about the governor's race,
because I would say, compared toother governors races, and my memory goes
all the way back to nineteen eightythree, this is definitely one of the
lowest wattage governor's races I could reallythink of, where there's not been any

(04:45):
like sudden or sharp movements or youknow, killer apps, or you know,
hidden accusations or things like that.It's been relatively low key. To
be honest with you, I mean, he's not good for Louisiana politics.
We're not used to this. Youknow, will never go vote again.
We want Buddy Romer. I makesome people angry moments week. The politicians
all need to cook up big dishesof redfish cuvion servant of the population.

(05:08):
Get them all fired up, andwe'll have an exciting thought. And I
gotta say the side effect of thathas been John Kuban, even though we
have probably more competitive statewide elections thanI've seen in many, many years.
We have a lot of down toget, a lot of parish elections,
very hot elections in multiple parishes.The level of voter apathy almost this year,
at least, the lack of enthusiasmis so palatable that you wonder about

(05:31):
people voting, you know, andyou know, to use the nineteen eighty
three analogy again, because that's probablygonna be a high water mark in terms
of elections. I remember how innineteen eighty three, this is the course
the Edwards Trene match, a rematchthat I was talking about. I remember
how that election was going on fora year before election day. I mean,
you had signs of people were campaigning. It was one of those like

(05:55):
NonStop shows. This one has startedlate, and it seemed like from talking
to fellow consultants, there was abit of groupthink in terms of nobody wanted
to spend any money before Labor Day, and even then, I've not started
seeing ads for the other statewide candidatesuntil about a week or two ago,
and so I'm thinking, Okay,you have this compressed time period, and

(06:18):
by the way, we have mailin balloting and early voting going on,
so a very insignificant amount of timefor voters to make up their minds,
and when that happens, you havethe risk of random events occurring. And
so that's been kind of my impressionthis year is it just doesn't seem he

(06:39):
wanted to get started. And youknow, I'm still seeing fairly high undecided
percentages in down ballot races and orlegislative races where I'm doing polling, and
I'm thinking, Okay, either you'regoing to have a lot of any meani
miney mo voting going on, oryou're going to have people not turning out.
Now the second part of my statement, I will have a better feel

(07:00):
for once we start early voting,because I've been gauging early voting turnout going
all the way back to two thousandand eight. And once you see the
first first person the first day's earlyvoting, you could get an idea of
what the ultimate early vote will beand you can make some reasonable assumptions about
voter turnout. As much as itdrives people crazy to do so, I

(07:23):
do find that first day does setthe tone. And we'll talk about,
of course, the first day turnoutsin the next couple of days next show,
but I gotta tell you when itcomes in. John Kuby and of
JMC Analytics, I've been astonished thefirst point you made about politicians waiting and
sort of keeping their powder drive,with the exception of Richard Nelson, who
spent a lot of money to getone percent of the vote and drop out

(07:45):
of the rice, I've had.We had the justification. So Hunter Lundy
came on the program about two threeweeks ago, and he's on here and
he said, and I'm talking aboutseeing your polls, seeing Ron vouchs and
others, his appeals that he's tryingto make independence. But I said,
you haven't really spent any money untilthis past week. And he said,
we've been pursuing the moneyball perspective onpolitics, very targeted talk radio ads,

(08:11):
religious community ads, so on andso forth, figuring that no one was
going to pay attention anyway until thelast month. And it's either a genius
strategy or it's totally insane. Ican't figure out which one it is.
Well, I will speak of itin this way. I'm a polite individual.
I know that they're talking and Iheard stories about all this advertising going

(08:33):
on with religious fundamentals, community andso forth. But number one, I
did not see a reflection of thatin the poll numbers where he was stuck
brillly until a few weeks ago,down it like two or three or so
percent. And number two there's thestructural problem of I kind of get the
impression that he's running a campaign thatmight have been characteristic of say Buddy Leech

(08:58):
in two thousand three, or evenEarl Long in nineteen fifty nine. But
the challenge with what he's trying todo is this, with his being an
independent. Once the magnetic polls ofpartisanship take over, and they always do,
the question that becomes where's his base? And you'll notice in that last
debate, the one where all sevenof them showed up, he was specifically

(09:20):
attacking Sean Wilson, and when hedid, some thinking, Okay, he's
trying to be a democrat now.And by the way, if you listen
to the content of his ads,once you get past the the banjoey music,
he's making clearly a democratic ploy amidstall the random promises and so forth
that he's making. So my thoughtis he's trying to make a play for

(09:41):
Sean Wilson's votes. I've seen himrise in the polls, but what I
question is number one, the velocityof that rise, and number two,
I'm of the opinion and we couldhave a case study on this after the
primary, but I'm of the opinionthat probably he should have started spending heavily
a month before he did, becausewhat you gotta remember is number one,

(10:01):
it takes time to your message tosink in. And number two, once
he started doing his commercials, mailand ballots, who are already going out
and then of course are we votingstarting in a couple of days, And
I'm thinking, well, you reallyneeded more time for your commercials to sink
in. And it's one of thoseideas. I mean, he's self funding

(10:22):
his race, so he could havedone it earlier. It's not and I
calculated that he loaned thus far,he's loaned himself three point three million dollars.
It's and I mean he made alot of money and tobacco in other
cases, but that's still for somebodyone hundred leney a lot of money.
Yeah, the question the question I'vebeen wondering though. John Couvian Polster of
JAMEC Analytics joining mckenry and did morehere on the Founder Show. Is that

(10:46):
whole strategy was based on the ideathat you could you could do kind of
a John Bell Edwards coalition. Youcould get some social conservative votes because you
know his pro life is the progun, but at the same time appeal
to Democrats that would go that weresoft on Sean Wilson. And I saw
something happen in the first WWL debatewhen the issue of the referendum, which

(11:07):
would really mean a constitutional amendment onexceptions for rape incests and danger of life
with the mother that may hurt SeanWilson catastrophically in a runoff where pro life
state. But Yeah, the funnything is, strangely his Democratic vote got
stronger, it almost seemed in thepolls I've seen. Now you're the guru,
you tell me if I've been ifI'm reading this totally off, not

(11:28):
by a lot, but like threeor four points. He got a bump
out of it. Who's Sean?Yeah, yeah, no, you don't
think so, okay, no,And I'll tell you. I'll tell you
what I've been seeing. So firstI'll address the John Bell Edwards analogy.
Then I'll get to Sean Wilson.So the cruise difference with what John Belle
Edwards did is you have to rememberback at twenty fifteen, the Democrats had

(11:50):
been shut out of power for eightyears and they very much wanted to return
to the governor's mansion. And JohnBelle Edwards, despite initial trepidation from the
likes of the mary Landrews and theKaren Carter Peterson's, he did become an
acceptable candidate for the Democrats because theywanted to win. And when he started
doing his ads, where he wasdoing Republican is steaming between that and antipathy

(12:13):
Democrats had about David Vitter. Hetook off like a rocket and I saw
it in my polling where he quicklyreached forty percent before the primary, which
of course is what he got nowshifting gears and also Democrat while Hunter Lundy
is not now going to the secondpoint. So with regards to Sean Wilson
and poll performance, etc. Etc. So I've had the benefit now of

(12:39):
looking at multiple polls, sometimes inthe same area across the state, and
the thing that strikes me immediately ishow he's not connecting with black voters.
Now am I expect it now,and more specifically, what I'm seeing in
poll after poll after poll was hisnumber and I go immediately to the black
cross tab is like in the fortiesand fifties and in Orleans Parish it was

(13:01):
like fifty six. Now what thismeans in plain English? Since I never
like throwing around numbers without proper context, That's why that's why we have you
on the air, John, becauseyou actually say what you're reading from it.
You want to you want to actuallykeep your listeners and not let them
get lost in all the walkery.But no, seriously, though, so
the thing that catches my attention iswhen I see his getting, you know,

(13:24):
consistently in the forties and fifties withthe black vote in parish after parish
after parish, and more importantly,that number is not moving. That is
shades of David Vitter twenty fifteen allover again. And that you have a
solid constituency that probably will get youto the runoff by default or inertia.

(13:46):
But a lack of growth is nota good thing because you have to remember
the moment the primary is over andhe goes into the runoff, the first
thing he's got to do is convinceddonors that he's a viable candidate. And
if you limp into the runoff ofsay twenty five a thirty percent of the
vote, while Hunter Lundie pulls anotherlike seven to ten, well that's hardly
show of strength. Whereas John BellEdwards he had forty percent, David Vider

(14:07):
had twenty three. So under thatscenario, it was very easy to say,
oh, look, this guy's acontender. I'm going to give him
all kinds of money that run off. So, like I said, the
fact that I'm so getting back tothe black percentage I'm seeing for Sean,
the way I interpret that is thiswhen I see these forties and fifties and
it's not growing. In other words, it should be in the seventies by
now. Ye that indicates not necessarilythat I think that Sean will get fifty

(14:31):
percent of the Black vote the primary. But what it does indicate to me
is a depressed level of enthusiasm.Yeah, and this is what I'm and
this is about turnout dynamics, thething everybody seems to forget about. John
Bell Edwards certainly the first time,it's definitely the second time in his runoff
election against Eddie respone he had overwhelminglyAfrican American turnout, and right at the

(14:54):
weekly I'm seeing the same thing.It's sort of an attitude of yeah,
John Wilson's because Sean Wilson is extremelybrilliant, he's very smart, he's incredibly
articulate. But a lot of peopleare like, you know, Landry's going
to win this thing, so whydo we care? You know, It's
it's kind of it's it's there's afatalism that's been going on a little bit.
And there's a second part to whatyou just enunciated is there is the

(15:20):
talk I hear, and this isyou know, talking to political observers,
lobbyists, insiders, and so forth, where they'll say the part about,
you know, I think Landry's goingto win. But the second part of
that statement that I'm starting to hearis actually broaching the subject that Landry could
win in the first primer, Now, when you take that kind of quantum

(15:41):
leap, imagine you're a donor andyou're starting to hear that group think going
on, well do you necessarily wantto open up your wallet wide For Sean
Wilson, that becomes the big question. And the other thing too, when
you're talking about, you know,the fatalism that you know you're talking about
regarding Landry. The second part ofthe statements, which you did not say,

(16:03):
but I will of course say,is it's not like the world is
going to end if Jeff Landry getselected in their minds. And a perfect
example of that mindset is if youwere to look at the finance reports and
I'm seeing multiple hundreds of thousands comingfrom say Gordon McKernan or Talbot Carmoush or

(16:23):
Dan Robbin. It's amazing the triallawyers that the groups that would typically support
a Democrat have been writing checks forJeff Landry and correct and there's no fear.
Yeah, yeah. And so there'sa couple of things going on here.
So and I'm gonna this is gonnainvolve Jeff Landry, Sean Wilson,
and Stephen Waggis Pack. So I'mgiving you a three fur with this one.
So the first thing is, unliketwenty fifteen, I don't think that

(16:48):
Jeff Landry has thought of as abogeyman by these political insiders and you know,
donors and so forth. The secondis when you're talking about giving money
these the troll lawyers or pragmatic individuals. To them, the comparison is not
Jeff Landry versus Sean Wilson, butJeff Landry versus Stephen Waggis pack. And
that's an interesting scenario because who's probablydone the best in the debates to solidify

(17:15):
some of the anti Jeff Landry support. That's Steve wagons Back. He's had
some of the best performances. Butit's wagons Back. I'll tell you something
I've been hearing off the record,and so I'm only sharing it with you
in our thirty thousand other people listeningon this. John Coovey on I m
Henry. But the fact of thematter is there are a lot of people

(17:36):
on the wagons backside and a lotof people on the Wilson's side who like
each other a lot more than theylike Jeff Landry. I've heard people saying
if there's a runoff, is whatwill wagons Back do? Will he pull
a Jay Darden and endorse Sean Wilson? How will that play? And it's
and I pose the question to highoff air, and I said, well,

(17:57):
what do you think is going tohappen if that happens? And he
says well, I don't think it'sgonna affect Jef Landry. It's I don't
think Sean Wilson get the vote.And I'm curious about wagons Back and all
of this because he's been rising inthe polls, just not quick enough,
fast enough and with enough support.I just don't know. I've been seeing
him in Schroeder both at About andreally Lundy for that matter, about five

(18:18):
percent, which it's almost like youhave five five five Wilson I would say,
is on the twenty five to thirtymark. Jeff is probably the forty
to low forties. But with regardsto the Waggis Pack vote, the way
I look at is, well,number one, he's not going to be
the only Republican. Also Ran,you're also gonna have the Schroder vote,
and you're going to have the Hewettvote. The other thing is what the

(18:42):
you know, most vocal people andTeam Waggis pac think versus the average rank
and file Republican or really wagons Packsupporter thinks are not necessarily going to be
the same. Because when I thinkof someone who's a Waggis Pack supporter,
I could think of some parts ofSouth Baton Rouge that are more affluent neighborhoods,

(19:03):
perhaps Old Mettery, maybe some ofthe precincts closer to the lake or
uptown. But I'm not thinking saylike Kenner or Harry Hann or Slydale or
places like that. This is Thisis not working class or working middle class
whites. This is upper middle classprofessionals, essentially correct. This is the

(19:25):
day Stream coalition, not the MikeFoster coalition. Absolutely. And by the
way, what's happening with regards topolitical party alignments nationally, a replication of
that is occurring here in Louisiana.In other words, the old base that
Republicans had in Mettery in Mandeville hasnow shifted more to Marksville and Manny.
Really, it's it's and it's andlook, and I think that plays off

(19:48):
the fact that John Bell Edwards wonJefferson Parish, and I mean not only
when the West Bank. He camewithin one hundred votes of winning the East
Bank in the last election and Jeffersonpetically if you include the early votes,
so I would make the argument thatJohn Bill carried the East Bank of East
jeff Really, for those who arejoining us, John Coovey on Polster,
head of a and JMC Analytics isjoining him. M Henry and Chritopher Tidmore

(20:11):
on The Founders Show, And we'vebeen looking at the Governor's race, but
we want to we want to goa little bit further after the break,
John with you and talk at sortof fifty thousand foot view of what's going
on the other races, but beforewe leave the Governor's race. Essentially,
while anything can happen, we're kindof at the last minute for any of
these guys to make a surge.I remember before before well before qualifying,

(20:34):
back at the beginning of the year, Billy Unguesser and I were having lunch
and you know, he was goingthrough the whole thing and running or not,
and he basically said, I'm notgoing to run. That's so is
He just was making the decision thatday and he said, because one person
can search against Jeff Landry, fivecan't. And at the time I said,
well, who knows people hate JeffLandry. He was right this He

(20:56):
making the decision to run for lieutenantgovernor again was probably not a bad decision
for him in all of this.So ultimately we're looking at I don't do
you see the polls though, whereJeff Landry could win it in the first
because I don't see that he's thathigh up in the forties. But maybe
I'm wrong. I'm curious you've beenpolling. Oh, here's the way I

(21:18):
look at it. It's not Idon't yet see the type of nu numbers
that would suggest a fifty plus percentfirst primary showing. In other words,
for me to make that kind ofconclusion, I would need to see repetitive
examples of him in the fifties andsixties outside of a Kadiana that I'm not
seeing. But the reason I don'tentirely dismiss it is out of hand is

(21:42):
there's a couple other things going on. Number One, Virtually every poll I've
done has showing Jeff getting about eightto ten percent of the Black vote,
and about twenty percent if that's aKadiana. And number two, if you
have low Democratic turnout, that's probablyworth a couple more points. Number Three,
the bandwagon effects, So I'm showingthe undecided it's just about everywhere.

(22:04):
Our poll back in the spring wasaround thirty. Now it's consistently around twenty.
So as you see, there's notbeen any grand movements here, but
within that twenty percent, you're goingto have some Republicans, some conservative independence,
some any political types. They starthearing Jeff Jeff Landr, Jeff Landry,
Jeff Landry, Jeff Landry. Thatkind of bandwagon or group thinking does

(22:29):
influence how some people can and willvote, and that, of course is
worth a few points as well well. And I've seen that effect. I
saw it in two thousand and fourwhere you had David Vitter. Obviously they
were you had multiple Democrats and oneRepublican to note at that time, but
it was basically, of course,well David Vitter's not making the runoff,
he's not gonna win in the firsthe's there's gonna be a run off with

(22:51):
David Vitter. And one of theseguys at the time, John Kennedy was
a Democrat. You had Author Morrell, and of course Chris John was leading
Democrat, and everybody was so heyfocused on the runoff. And I talked
to Chris John's campaign manager in therun off, we good news run off
this and they all woke up onprimary night to see David Venner having fifty
percent of the vote, and itwas one of those It's a similar thing
I think happened in two thousand andseven with Bobby Jendaal, where you basically

(23:14):
had this question of Okay, youknow how we're going to take him down
to the runoff, But the biggerpicture was Jendaal was steadily gaining strength throughout
the primary. And yeah, Ithink you have to remember the big picture
is that twenty percent has to gosomewhere. So obviously Sean will get some
benefit, Steve wax Pack will getsome benefits Hunter Lundy, et cetera,
et cetera. But that also meansthere's gonna be some benefit that goes to

(23:37):
Jeff. And you do have peopleout there who their whole vote is they
don't want to be uncool and voteat variance with what the crowd thinks,
and group think plays the thing.But I want to see how this group
think affects the down ticket races.John Cuban, we gotta take a quick
commercial break. Can you hold withus and we're come back. I have
a very important question that gives usa perhaps a deeper and better understanding of

(23:59):
the whole concept of holes. AndI know you're the guy who can give
us the answer. John, Sure, that's a no. Pressure question.
I'm sure all right. We'll beback folks with the Founder show right for
these important messages. Stay tuned moreto come with John Couvian. What's happening
on all of these other competitive racesthat nobody's really paying attention to, but
they are very, very exciting races. Hold on, we'll back right after
this Entner nine one one. What'syour emergency? It was midday on April

(24:23):
tenth when a handyman was gunned downin cold blood. I'm Kenner Police Chief
Keith Connley. When we arrived atthat tragic scene, there were no witnesses,
but within a matter of two hours, Kenner Police identified the suspects and
detained them for questioning. As amazingas it sounds, a parish councilman helped
us catch those criminals. On thatday. The councilman, Dominic and Postato

(24:45):
funded a sophisticated network of state ofthe art crime cameras. Those cameras identified
the vehicle and led us write tothe murderers. It was councilman in Postato's
passion for a peaceful community that uncoveredtwo murderers and ended what was about to
become a random crimes play. Whenthat vehicle was stopped, detectives found a

(25:06):
full case of non millimeter ammunition.I can honestly say that Dominic say laz
that day, turning ideas into actions. Let's keep Councilman Dominic Impostato paid for
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(25:30):
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(25:52):
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here on the Founder's Show. MikeBayham is the Conservative choice for House District
one oh three Mike Bayham is astrong Republican who will fight to cut spending
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(26:14):
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Book Conservative Vote Mike Bayham for HouseDistrict one oh three, paid for by
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(26:40):
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(27:03):
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(27:26):
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For further information and to purchase tickets, please visit our website at www
dot New Orleans Opera Ball twenty twentythree dot org. And welcome back to
the Founders Show here in w rand O and WSLA. Remember you can

(28:11):
always hear this program every Sunday fromeight to nine a m. On w
r O ninety nine five FM,every Monday, Wednesday and Friday Friday,
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(28:33):
do it the old fashioned way andjust simply go to our website, The
Founders Show dot com. We're talkingpoles, ladies and gentlemen with poster John
Kubyan of JNC on Atletics. Asalways, I'm Christopher Tidmore and Choplinhei Mgenry
and John. I have some interestingquestions because we have a very good audience,
a large audience, and a veryinterested audience, and these topics we

(28:56):
bring up, we've getten tremendous feedback. We got to do our own poll
about our own show. But youknow a lot of people are questioning polls.
They don't quite understand them or howthey work. They're not even sure
you can trust them. So Ihave two questions for you. Please explain
to me how polls are done.Like what demographics do you go to?
You I'm sure you go to differentdemographics, different age groups, et cetera,

(29:18):
et cetera, different political parties,et cetera. And explain that part
of it, and then explain howaccurate. Do you really think polls are?
Are they accurate ten percent of thetime and ninety percent of the time?
And tell you are the pro You'vebeen doing this all your life.
We couldn't get a better education onpolling than from a guy like you.
And incidentally, I was trained todo polling from my last two or duty

(29:40):
as a counter insurgency advisor to beable to go out into the you know,
Afghan population and try to get afeel for what they're really thinking and
what they really want. So Ihad my own background in polling. But
I'm not the pro you are.So how do polls works? Because a
lot of people really don't know rightwell, say that its most important to
appreciate about pulling And this is mycontroversial take, but such as life,

(30:06):
a poll is not a prediction ofthe future. A poll is a statement
of what the current snapshot of what'sgoing on now today. So in other
words, things can and do change. But the idea is you're basically taking
the temperature over a period of time, and if you do it well enough

(30:27):
and or close enough to an election, theoretically what the poll says is what
the election results should say. Sothat's to me, I guess the you
know my thought about the accuracy thepolls. Now, every pollster has his
or her own standards as to howto do it. I always take the
attitude of rather than get excited overa single poll, what interests me more

(30:48):
is number one, what the pollingconsensus is. So, in other words,
you'll have Ron Fochet doing some polling, You'll have the TV stations doing
their polling, You'll have people likeoutside groups releasing their polling, and so
on and so forth. And whenyou start seeing kind of several numbers,
you can kind of get an ideaof what the consensus is. In other

(31:10):
words, nobody saying Jeff Landry isgetting ten percent of the vote. To
give you an extreme example. Theother thing that I'm interested in with polling
is not necessarily in addition, ofcourse, to the kind of the average,
the consensus the trend. In otherwords, if you start seeing movement
towards one candidate, and there's aconsensus amongst polsters that candidates movement, well

(31:36):
that's a story. Now in theideal world, if you have the same
polster conducting multiple polls, and thosemultiple polls are all released to the public,
that's the clearest indication of a trend. But in general, though,
any kind of movement towards a candidate, it's going to be picked up by
the posters. So in other words, whatever Jeff Landry and or Sean Wilson

(31:57):
their poll standing was in the spring, you compare that against what's going on
today, you get an idea ofwhat the movement is. So, I
mean, that's my thought about accuracyis it is not meant to be a
prediction of the future. It's meantto be a statement of what the temperature
is today. Now the second partof your question, which is how a
poll works. So we have differentphilosophies within the polling community. My belief

(32:20):
is the voter file is the basisfor conducting polls, and more specifically those
in the voter file who have demonstratedthat they plan to vote. Yeah,
and I'll give you a perfect examplesomething which I abhor. You get those
screening questions how likely you to votein whatever whatever election? Very few people
ever admit to a poster that they'renot going to vote. Commonly, I'll

(32:45):
see you like anywhere from one tofive percent. But you and I know
that you don't have ninety five toninety nine percent turnout, So I think
of that as a BS question tobe frank with you, Now, what
I do use, however, Imeant in the person's voting history, more
specifically the last date he or shevoted, and you do have some junk

(33:07):
on the voter file. So basicallyfor me to think of you as a
legitimate voter, that's worth getting apoll call. I'm interested in the BC
and the ad that I use isthe previous presidential election, which in this
case would be twenty twenty. Soif you've voted at least once since November
of twenty twenty, I think ofyou as a legitimate potential voter. And

(33:28):
then, of course, in someparishes that are fast growing, like say
Saint Tammany, where you have aninflux of new voters, well you have
to pull new voters. That's justbecause they're new to the parish and they
may or may not want to vote. But until they've proven by the twenty
twenty four presidential election that they aren'tvoting, I give them the benefit of
the doubts. So what I'm talkingabout is a likely voter model, So

(33:51):
it's something more restrictive than just registeredvoters or god forbid in the old days
news organizations which just randomly dial somebodyand they'd actually asked the question, are
you a registered voter in the stateof Iowa? And I'm thinking, oh,
that's an effective screening tool, especiallyfor our caucus. We have to
stand there all night. Oh exactly. And that's but that, to me

(34:12):
is the important part of the philosophyis selecting who it is you're potentially going
to call, and then making surethat that sample was representative of the population.
So for those of us who tookstatistics classes, we're talking about little
in versus big in. Yeah andso, and this gets into you know,
a racial demographics. I think tohave graphic background, so on and
so forth, and I do wantto use all of that because I actually

(34:37):
think this is going to be andI could be totally wrong. We'll know
the stats at the end of earlyvoting. But I truly believe that this
is going to be a super chronicsdecided election. And what intrigues me about
that is you rarely have our electionsuper chronics, the ones that come out
when you have a millage election,nothing else on the ballot, and you

(34:57):
rarely have a super chronic election thatis going to decide, and a very
open attorney General's race, a veryopen Secretary of State's race, a very
legislative races from one hundred and fifthin where Mike Bayham and the others are
running in Saint Bernard, to theninety first where Mandy Landry's running for our
life uptown, to all the otherdifferent races, the at large races in

(35:19):
Jefferson Parish, which was that isa different demographic of voters better informed and
some ways more easily track, butalso people who are very idiosyncratic. And
so give us the fifty thousand footview of what's going on in all the
other other Right before you left us, as you were explaining polling, little
in and big in, and Ithink most people won't know what that means.

(35:40):
Can you get define that for us? Please? Yeah? The big
in is the popula is the populationstatistics. Little in is the sample statistics,
or like the count, the countthe population count versus the sample count.
Okay, thank you. So thefifty thousand view view. Because there's
some races. People are asking me, what's going to happen the ages race,
And I said, well, I'veseen Marty Malley making some runs.

(36:01):
We've seen Liz doing some stuff.I actually have no idea what the weather
runoff is going to look like,and I can't say most in my history
twenty seven years as a journalist,I can usually tell you, well,
he's definitely in the runoff. Ican't tell you in several races who's who
and what's what sure, and Ican address that conceptually to make life simpler
for you. One of the thingsyou have to realize is as much as

(36:24):
people like to think that party labelsdon't matter, they do, which,
of course is part of the discussioni'd had for you before regarding Hunter Lundy,
where a question that's worth posing isif he had actually explicitly run as
a Democrat as opposed to an independent, could that have gotten him more Democratic
votes? But anyway, that's that'sone of those theoretic, theoretical questions for

(36:45):
October fifteenth. Now getting back tothe fifty thousand foot levels. So the
thing you have to appreciate when you'retalking about, you know, handicapping runoff
configurations is this, typically you havea forty percent every five to forty percent
Democratic voter based in Louisiana. Andyou know, typically if you have a
bunch of Republicans running, they inthe aggregate will get about sixty percent.

(37:09):
So the question of who's going tomake the runoff is very much dependent on
what portion of that forty you grabif you're a Democrat versus what portion of
the sixty you grab if you're aRepublican. So if we apply that to
the governor's race and quickly segue tothe down ballots for the governor's race,

(37:30):
Sean Wilson pretty much does not havecompetition within the Democratic world for that forty
percent, although Hunter Lundy is eatingaway at that because of his saturation advertising.
So, you know, the firstand foremost question in my mind the
governor's race says, Okay, isit going to be you know, thirty
ten Wilson Lundy? Is it goingto be twenty five fifteen? Those kinds

(37:52):
of combinations of forty percent are howyou gain if someone's going to make the
runoff. And then on the republicbecause the side you basically have, Okay,
what portion of that sixty percent isJeff Landry going to get? And
how much of it fragments off toSchroeder to Waggis Pack to Sharon Hewitt to
Hunter LUNDI. Now taking that concepton applying it to the down brown races,

(38:15):
I'll give you an easy one,the Treasures race. You have one
Democrat running against two Republicans, butone Democrats you can pencil him in for
the ronalf automatically, and it's beenamazing because Granger's basically not campaigned, but
the d behind his same on Twitter. Yeah, but he's no money,
no commercials, but you're he's guaranteedto get a run off. But on
the Republican side, you've got formerCongressman Doctor Fleming, and you have Scott

(38:37):
McKnight, who frankly has had oneof the most impressive grassroots against an established
politician. I mean, he's astate rap, but that i've seen,
I can't tell you who's who andwhat's what in that race, and what
do y'all think about Fleming. Sohere's the interesting thing there. When we're
talking about how we would handicap ahypothetical runoff for Treasure, the question then

(38:58):
becomes, Okay, we're essentially talkingabout a Republican primary, and the concept
here is are there more Republicans inMettery in Mandeville versus Republican voters in Manny
and Marksville, because one area isprobably going to be more likely to support
McKnight, the other more likely tosupport doctor Fleming, who's doing more of

(39:22):
a grassroots is kind of campaign.So what do you how do you think
that's going to work out? Right? Well, I mean I would I'm
just giving the overall concepts. Idon't think he wants to make that prediction.
I wouldn't want to, okay,but but I'll tell you that where
it gets interesting, and this isthis is one of those you know,
what's what's that twelve side of thedodecahedron kind of you know, okay,

(39:46):
the Secretary of State and the attorneygenerals. Racist get wonderfully complex for the
reason being you have multiple Democrats runningand multiple Republicans. So when you're trying
to think of one Democrat getting enoughto get into the run, the question
then becomes and Democrats are really goodat getting a unified vote out in the

(40:07):
primary to where one of their owncould make the runoff. So taking that
concept into the hypothetical here, ifyou are a Democrat and you're looking at
the cheek versus terribone. In theturn General's race, I would think Democrats
would be more likely to go withCheek because number one, she's numerically first
on the ballot, and number two, being an attorney, theoretically she should

(40:29):
have more access to funds. So, in other words, you would have
a disproportioned amount of Democrats theoretically goingto Cheek for those two reasons, which
would catapult Turn to the runoff.And the same kind of logic would happen
in the Secretary of States race,except what's complicated there. So author Morele
jumped in late. But I wouldmake the argument that with his having been

(40:49):
a public official in Orleans Parish fora long time, he's been basically seen
by thirty five percent of the state, which of course is the New Orleans
media market. A clerk of courtwho also and statewide for the US Senate
and all this, whose son sitson the council as an elected official,
former legislator, and he did ajob involving elections, so that they kiss.

(41:10):
I would it's Collins green Up wasat the top. You'd think that
alphabet alphabetical advantage would have it,But there's a lot that one advantage yes,
a lot of people. By theway, that did manifest itself if
you go back to I think itwas twenty eighteen when she was running against
Renee font noo free And I thinkthat was so funny was all these political
observers was saying, oh, wellfont no Freeze got the resume and she's

(41:31):
the insider in this that and airthing. And I'm thinking, well,
but she's not first alphabetically on theballot, number one and number two.
Font no free only had something likefifty thousand dollars cash on hand, and
I'm thinking that's barely enough for staterep race, much less a statewide race.
And they were saying, well,she's the first assistant. Nobody knew
who the first assistant was. Theybarely state was. On that note,

(41:53):
John couveyan of JMC Analytics, it'salways a privilege to have you on the
air. Thank you for our views. We still are confused, so we're
looking forward to handicap having you backand handicapping this after the primary and after
the runoff to find out where itwas. I have a comment. I
like your thoughts on this, andthat is I'm beginning to see this as

(42:14):
like a barroom brawl on top ofTula Street on a Saturday night, with
every kind of character you can thinkof, swinging punches and whatever. At
the end of the thing, everybodyhas a big drunken party and sing along.
Is that what Louisiana politics is gettingto be or has been for many
years? Nobody sinks. Well,you know, the interesting thing about Louisiana

(42:36):
politics now is with its steady shiftto the right. And by the way,
given the trends I'm singing voter registration, I think in three to five
years you're going to have a Republicanvoter registration plurality. But getting back to
the main concept here, what Ithink is going to be more prevalent is
going to be more vicious factional fightingwithin the Republican quote unquote primary in the

(42:59):
state wide, in legislative racists.Well, John, listen again, thank
you so very much. We've weren'tout of town, but we gotta get
you back because you're fascinating. Thankyou, John, Always a privilege,
and we'll see back after these atthe patriotic moment. Right after these important
messages, Stay tuned. More ofthe founders show in w r O and
WS label well, folks, thisis Chaplanhei Mhenry and I'm here to tell

(43:20):
you about our ministry, LAMB Ministries. We are an intercity ministry with an
inter city focus and Formula four intercityfolks, please cheest us, check us
out, go to our website lambnoola dot com. That's LAMB n o
la dot com, or just callme Chaplinhei Mhenry at area code five zero

(43:40):
four seven two three nine three sixnine, folks. Is very challenging ministry.
We work with very tough situations.We need all the help we can
get. We need volunteers, financialsupport, and prayer warriors. If you
are interested, please contact us.We promise you it will be an exciting

(44:00):
experience. It will be a veryfulfilling and meaningful experience. We've had close
to five thousand kids come to Christ. We've had hundreds of them go on
to live very good, faithful,godly, productive lives that go on to
be great citizens in this country,get married, raised, kids, get
a jobs that get you know,stay, keep themselves free from bad things,

(44:23):
keep themselves out of jail, andget great educations and great careers.
This ministry works, folks, soplease check us out again we need all
the help we can get again.You can contact us. You can find
out all about us at our website, lamb nola dot com. That's lamb
nla dot com. And thank youso very very much. Folks were back,

(44:52):
and it's not time for us togo into our chaplain by by patriotic
moment. We just took a briefmoment to remind you of the biblical foundations
of our country, our Judeo Christianjurisprudence. And today we want to talk
about Henry Wadsworth Longfellow. Now thisis a little history lesson to help you
understand our real background in this countryand the real foundations of America, and

(45:12):
from every angle, from every timein history, even going back to the
very earliest way before even the settlerscame, the original settlers. So listen
to what Henry Wadsworth Longfellow said.Listen to my children, and you shall
hear of the midnight ride of PaulRevere. Hang a lantern aloft in the
belfry arch one of by land intoit by sea. These lines are come

(45:36):
from Paul Revere's ride by Henry WadsworthLongfellow born February twenty seventh eighteen o seven.
He was an American poet Harvard professorwho wrote such American classics as The
Song of Hiawatha, The Courtship ofMiles Standish, A great poet by the
way, and evangel and one ofmy favorites because about Louisiana, New Orleans,

(45:57):
South Louisiana, in which he pinneda man and it's unjust, but
God is just, and finally justicetriumphs close quotes. This, of course,
was in reference to the Cajuns,our beloved Cajuns here I'm half Cajun
myself, and their great sufferings intheir cruel dyspoia from Nova Scotia, Canada,
forced upon them by the bloody British, who, in an attempt at

(46:19):
tempted genocide, murdered one third ofthem in the mid eighteenth century. As
to sit around in seventeen fifties anda Psalm of Life by Longfellow, he
wrote, life is real, lifeis earnest, and the grave is not
its gold. Dost thou art todust? Thou returnest was not spoken of
the soul in the world's broad fieldof battle, and the bivouac of life

(46:44):
be not like dumb driven cattle,be a hero to the strife. Trust
no future, however pleasant. Letthe dead past bury its dead, act
act in the living, present,heart within, in God or head.
Lives of great men all remind uswe can make our lives sublime. That

(47:04):
means noble and departing, leave behindus footprints on the sands of time.
Footprints that perhaps another sailing oor's lifesolemn main a foreloan and shipwrecked brother,
seeing she'll take heart again. Now, folks, do you really believe that
this man wanted to keep God outof our lives? Keep God our government?

(47:25):
Remember, Longfellow had a huge influenceand impact on all of America and
our founding fathers, in fact,all around the world. The man is
absolutely one of the greatest, mostamazing poets of all times. Well,
folks, what about you? Doyou have a sense of how important God
needs to be? Not in America, and that's very important, but in

(47:45):
your life. You see, youcould be the greatest patriotic American of all
times. But if you died andwent to hell, what good would it
do? Your folks? It woulddo you absolutely no good. So now
I'm just gonna take a brief momentto show you how you can know that.
You know that, you know you'regoing to heaven when you die.
You're saved from a burning hell.You have God's love, and so it

(48:07):
is not a time for us togo in our chaplain by gospel moment.
You know, the Bible says,for we have been saved by grace through
faith. And even that is notof ourselves. It is a gift of
God, not of works. Lestany man should boast. Folks, God
wants you in heaven with him forever. He knew that you would never be

(48:28):
smart enough, good enough, religiousenough, righteous enough, rich enough,
famous enough, or cool enough,whatever you think is. He knew you
could never measure up to His righteousness. You could never earn heaven. So
He decided to do it for you. So let's look at that verse.
If we have been saved by gracethrough faith, Okay, Grace is the
gift of heaven, the gift ofGod's love, the gift of mercy,

(48:51):
the gift of forgiveness, the giftof understanding and revelation, the gift of
heaven, the gift of a salvationfrom a burning hell, the gift of
total payment for all your sins.That's what grace is. The word plain
and simply means grace cut easma,it's a Greek word. So we've been
say by grace through faith. Theway you take this free gift is you
believe it's for you. That's calledfaith, with the faith of a little

(49:14):
child, where you believe with allyour heart because you're not trusting anything else.
You're not trusting how good you are, how great you are, your
religion, this, that, orwhatever else, all the things you could.
You're not trusted in turning from yoursins, on cleaning up your life
or anything else, because you knowthat won't work. When you come to
that point, the Bible says,you have just repented. When you realize
that you are hopeless and helpless withoutGod, you have just repented, and

(49:36):
that's required for the free gift ofeverlasting life. So we've been say by
grace through faith. And even thatis not of ourselves, folks. Faith
didn't even come from us. Godgives it to it, and the Bible
says he gives it to everybody.The Biblica says the word of faith has
gone to the whole world, toeverybody. It says the grace of God,
which bringing salvation, has appeared untoall men. So you see,

(49:58):
everybody gets grace, everybody gets faith. We've been saved by grace through faith.
And even that is not ourselves.It is a gift of God,
not of works. See, allyour good works aren't going to do you
any good, So forget it,not of works, lest any man should
boast. Folks, if you've neverdone this before, do it now.
Take the time right now to believethat Jesus really did die for all of
your sins, all of them,from the day you're born to the day

(50:21):
you die. Your tiny is toyour greatest sins. They all went in
the cross. The Boddle says,his blood washed them all away, and
then he rose in the dead towin for you his precious free gift of
resurrection, everlasting life. And thatis a gospel that Jesus died for all.
Gospel means good news, that Jesusdied for all your sins, was
buried and rose in the day.If you've never believed this before, with
a faithful little child, with allof your heart, do it now.

(50:44):
Don't wait till it's too late.And like the scripture says, now today
is a day of salvation. Well, folks, says another thing we need
to talk about, because we're gettingclothes, and I'm talking about Jesus's second
coming. He is coming back reallysoon, folks. And so now we
will go into our open by bywatchman on the wall, where we are
faithful watchers. We're looking for hiscoming. We may, if we're faithful,

(51:07):
we will win that precious crown inheaven of the loving of the appearing
of his coming. Let me tellyou about how close this, says,
folks. There are many signs,are over two hundred prophecies. They've all
they're all happening right now, geesaid. We see other things happening coincidentally,
all at the same time. ThenI'm even at the door. That

(51:28):
means he's coming back any minute,any day. He's coming back soon,
folks. This is a sign thatI keep noticing. The Scripture says,
for one of the signs is thatbecause iniquity shall abound, meaning in the
end times, the love of manyshow wax cold, and folks, I'm
seeing that in our world today.I'm seeing people being so wicked and so
mean and so hateful. It's hardeningpeople. People becoming hardened. Whether it's

(51:52):
just like they're they're brutal and ruthless. I mean, look at all the
sex perversion, all the child trafficking, all the wars, and all the
evil going on in the world today. It's hardening peace. It's making people
hard I see it in my everydaylife. I see it as I walk
through the streets. I see this. I do the work of this ministry.
I see it all over the place. Folks, I'm seeing people hardened
like I've never seen it before.And I really think it's a real sign

(52:15):
God is giving us to wake usup. But don't get discouraged, don't
give up, because we've got safety. We got a safe place, and
we got the love of our soulswaiting for us. Folks. You know,
when Jesus comes back, he's goingto bring peace on earth and good
will to all men. This isgonna end, folks. It's not going
to be forever, and he's comingback soon. But until then, we

(52:36):
must endure. And we got totake the bitter with the sweet. It's
got to get worse before and getbetter. So you better get your bunker.
And I'm gonna tell you the bestbunker you can ever find the name
of that bunker, the name ofthat cave, the name of that Lord
Jesus Christ, manufactured by the HeavenlyManufacturing Company. It's waiting there for you
any minute, anytime you want it. Jesus is there. Go to him.
Get his peace, the peace ofGod which bets at all understanding.

(52:59):
Get it's safety. He will keepyou safe and secure. The line of
the tribe of Judah is his name, and he's more mighty and powerful.
If you've never done that before,folks, do it now claim your bunker.
The Lord Jesus Christ believed that hedid die for all your sins,
was buried and rose in the dead. And it is now time for us
to go. We hate to go, but we got to go and say
as we go, thank you sovery much for being with us. As

(53:20):
we're not closed with the mind.Saint Martin singing a creole goodbye and God
bless all. I'm there, thecalling qul goodbye. Please think we're just
twted our time. All three sibylSi love me. There's time for dreo. Goodbye.