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Episode Transcript
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(00:01):
Howdy and welcome to the Three TrueOutcomes podcast, presented by Baseball Perspectus.
I'm your host, Ian left Gwitz, and I am joined as always from
suburban Michigan. It's Ben Murphy.Ben, how are you doing? I'm
pretty well, Ian, little bitsleepy, but good. Otherwise that's exciting
fatherhood, happy energy for the morningcommute, where if you're looking to me

(00:24):
for inspiration, you'll be consistently disappointed. I guess that's true in general.
Never mind model our podcast, joiningus as always our nation's capital. It's
Jared Wise. Jared, how areyou doing? I've been better, but
I'm happy to be here with youguys. Thank you. Oh that's a
better answer. That's what I shouldhave said. Steal it it's mine.

(00:47):
I'm not stealing, and I'm givingyou credit that it's okay, all right.
On this week's episode, we willbe a portioning credit. We will
go through the al season preview asonly we can, you know, slightly
worse than other season previews. Wewill talk about some standing, we will

(01:10):
make possibly some prop beats. Idon't know. We'll see, we'll see
how frisky we're feeling, give somewars, and then get out of here,
but first I turn it over tothe mail back Captain. I think
this might be our best question ofall time. How's it going? Well?
We have a question, so it'sgoing better than last week. This

(01:30):
question comes from Eric, who writesa fun question, three true outcomes,
home run, walk, and strikeya, Ben, Ian, and Jared.
Which one of you is the homerun, which one is the walk?
And which one is the strike?Yap? So we answered this one.
Yeah. We wrote in our answersseparately to Eric, who tabulated the

(01:53):
results and spit them back to us. I'll read them unless you guys have
any thing you want to preface itwith. No, I'm really hoping.
Should we go around in each giveour answers briefly? I think you should
just read Eric's response because I thinkhe summarizes the answers and then Great also
does his thing after that. Great? Sure? Okay? Um? So

(02:16):
there were two votes for Ian forHomer, two votes for Ben for Homer,
three votes for Me for strike out, one for Ian for walk,
and one for Ben for walk.There are three of us. I have
some questions because it sounds like therewere a lot of books I'm reading.
Read this for me? I don'tknow what happened here. So Eric says

(02:38):
that Ben's firstinct instinct was Ian hisHomer, Ben's walk in Jared strike up,
but thought the other two would gowith Ben Homer, Ian walk and
Jared strike out, and that washis final answer. But Jared and Ian
both went with Ian Homer, Benwalk, and Jared strike it. So
Eric drew some conclusions from these results, and they were uh, kind of

(02:59):
scared, Yeah accurate, they were, Yeah, so well, here we
go. Eric concluded that Ben andhe and both have ego issues, but
Ben is more willing to sublimate forthe better of the group and trying to
match his vote to the others,or that's what he tells himself and uses
to convince himself to vote himself asa Homer quote, Oh the others will

(03:19):
vote me a home run. I'lldo so too to go along. Ian
is the voice of the tto,and with that comes the ego thinking he's
the most important of the three.This is common when it comes to talent,
and Eric had that in quotes,I don't he is both unwilling and
unable to sublimate himself, even toattempt to put anyone above himself out of
a weak attempt at false modesty wouldcause the entire matrix to come crashing down.

(03:44):
And Jared, that's me has startdeep seated emotional, spiritual, and
confidence issues. He most likely spendhis youth torturing small animals and planning other
devious acts. He seems self effacing, but the Auschucks routine and soft voice
hides something much much more sinister.Aaron not speculate what. Judging by Ben
and Ben's and Ian votes, theyagree yeah, and then he makes a

(04:10):
joke about one of our leagues thatwe're in together, right, Yeah,
I'd figured we didn't need to godead and so but yes, I mean
that's part of the thing that iscombined these three personalities into a single unit,
and you get the kind of teamthat would allow someone to overpay for
Matt Chapman and still with themselves inthe mirror each day and the interests of
my own safety. These were notmy conclusions, but those of John Maine,

(04:31):
So thanks John appreciated. Yeah,I mean I think when you get
down to it, it's like it'sit's painfully obvious, right, because Ian's
easily the home run, because he'sthe best of us. I'm lazy and

(04:51):
you're trying hard and missing. It'slike, so I thought about this,
Eric, Why is that Ian's twisthere is that he was actually coming in
from the pitcher's perspective, not thehinder's perspective. Yeah, Eric is a
red span so like I believe so, like maybe he thinks like home runs
are like special just because that's allthey could hit um. And you know,

(05:13):
like there's a part like walks arejust as important. Walks set up
the offense. O BP is life. We all know walks clogged the bases
in And the only reason that Iwould say strike auser not important is uh,
Like, it's not Terry's inherent worthlessness, it's it's this is nihilism.
It's because it's an Orioles fan.We all know this. Strikeouts aren't bad,

(05:36):
They're part of the ecosyst they justdon't matter. Yeah, this is
easily the best question we've ever gone. Is a pretty good question. Yeah.
I was like I was trying tothink, like, why are all
of my heroes like tonight for MaryTyler Moore, I guess it works.

(06:00):
That's a good question. Would marryTyler more character? Would you be you
are. I mean, it's prettyobvious. It's so obvious. Yeah,
I'm afraid I don't know anything aboutMary Tyler more so does that big Bed
lu Grant? Yeah, I wasthinking somewhere between that and Sue No,

(06:21):
you're right, yeah, no,And I bet this is funnier if you
know what the hell you guys aretalking about. Sure thing. I feel
like we finally nailed our demographic culturereferences, by the way, So can

(06:41):
we talk about how Bed tried tolike Gabe theory this thing? Oh?
Yeah, what what does what doesthat mean? I feel like that means
something. Dude. If there's anythingI'm good at, it's overthinking shit coming
up with the same answer. Iwouldn't if I hadn't spent so long thinking
about it, but thinking for awhile. Like when you were doing tests

(07:02):
in high school or something stantarday stuff, would you come up with an answer
and then like spend twenty minutes thinkingabout why that might be wrong and put
the wrong into the later on?Um. I think when I came to
standardized tests, I was pretty goodat trusting my first instinct because I have
been like drilled into me. Ithink if not for that, then yes,
that's exactly what I would have donethere. I remember the drilling that

(07:24):
into me too. I don't Idon't know why, because it's true.
Wait, were they drilling into youthe need to be more decisive? Was
this like classroom exercise? They likepull you aside. You don't have a
special Jed. You're never gonna passif you don't put down any answers for

(07:47):
any of the questions. Anyway,it's going to be really exciting as we
move into the rest of his podcastto come up with decisions that we stick
to and put her names too forthe rest of the year. I mean,
yeah, that's why you're the homerun and Jared's the strikeout. It's

(08:07):
like, you're gonna come up withthe answers and we're just gonna ride coat
tails. Just like math Olympia.It's all over again. All right,
Um you did math OLYMPIAD, Idid. I did. I was a

(08:28):
very good mass tad and up untilabout eighth grade and I still have like
an incredible knowledge of like up toninth grade math, which serves me really
well on the SA TSU and evenlike the grys like everyone, um the
college board thinks I am much smarterthan I am. Yeah, I don't

(08:52):
anyway, but nobody remembers that math, right, It's like, no,
no, but you are not hereabout my middle school math for hours.
I don't know quite while you're here. But it's possibly to talk about the
American League and baseball, so weshould probably pimp it into that before we

(09:15):
spend two hours reminiscing. I'm justtrying to avoid this for as long as
possible. I know why, let'sprobe into this since we are introspective.
So we we talked about the NationalLeague last week. For those who are
listening, and if you haven't heardit, go back. It is maybe

(09:37):
a thrilling discussion. Maybe it's adiscussion. Who knows. You can listen
to our thoughts then, But we'regoing to talk about the more important league
this week, and so we're goingto vote a little bit more time to
it. And I guess, doyou guys have any top line feelings about
the American League this year? How? How are you feeling that? In

(10:00):
general? I'd be okay if therewasn't an American League the same. My
sense is that the American League,for all its superiority, is going to
be much less exciting to watch.You know, Like in the National League,
the thing that jumped out to mewas anything could happen basically, you

(10:20):
know, obviously not exactly anything.But in the American League, it seems
like it's basically like Yankees and RedSocks, Indians and Astros and you know,
somebody else will probably make the playoffs, but it doesn't matter because they're
not going to be as good asthose teams. Yeah, I mean,
I definitely think it's the most likelyscenario, and as anyone from DC kind

(10:45):
of understands, that's not always theway things play out. In reality.
I feel like probably one of thosefour teams will struggle more than we expected,
and you know, there may becloser races than we expected, but
certainly in April it doesn't feel thatway. Yeah, I agree. I
mean, yeah, my head says, yeah, that's exactly it's going to
happen. But it always it feelslike that it never plays out exactly what

(11:07):
we expect. It's hard for meto see what's going to play it differently,
but I think something will do.You, I know, putting you
on spot a little bit, doyou have a team in mind that if
you said Okay, this team islikely to be fifth place or maybe the
most maybe the surprise. Not really, I mean no, I it just

(11:37):
no. I mean I could justgive a team to give a team,
but I don't have any backing forthat. I guess if you've forced me
to pick one in each division,probably Raise, Twins and Angels. Yeah.
I didn't want to jinx the raise, but Raise I mean yeah,

(12:01):
I mean I think they're to mepretty clearly the fifth best team. Um,
maybe even the fourth best team,but they in a troublesome division.
Yeah, I mean, I'd becurious that the Rays are playing in the
Central with their projections would look likeI would. Yeah, I would not
pick Cleveland to win the Sentinel Bay. Yeah, I think they're better than

(12:22):
Cleveland. Um, which is youknow, it is fascinating as as an
ostensible White Sox fan. It isreally uh. I mean, I guess
it's heartening to be able to seelight at the end of the tunnel,
even though your rebuild is not goingwell, to be able to be like,
oh, maybe we can win anyway. I you know, I'm sure

(12:43):
you know what that feels like.But the I'm not this is the world's
worst drinking game. Everyone is justgoing to drive off the road. But
you know, I it's also justlike uninspiring. I do think a lot
of the like malaise of you knowwhy, why it just baseball feels so

(13:09):
stagnant right now is due to theAmerican League and just the teams being so
stratiated that and the team's chasing kindof being the more impoverished teams theoretically at
least, so they just there's justlike this lack of effort on everybody's part.

(13:31):
And I think we've seen a lotof tali move into the National League.
You know, last year was thefirst time the National League won Interleague
since Interleague existed something like that.Yeah, it's been a while, and
you know, I feel like evenmore so this year. All Right,
So let me as I can sortof kind of tie this to score sheet
I guess a little bit. Butthinking about the central in Cleveland, if

(13:54):
you if you were in a scoresheetdivision something like that, would you how
much would you look at a teamlike Cleveland and see they're they're on the
downward trajectory and maybe susceptible this year? How much would that change your plans?
Would you still just plan for yourteam to be good whenever your team
is good, or would you say, hey, you know what, like

(14:15):
maybe my team's a year away fromcompeting really, but I can kind of
go on in this year and makea run out of it. It's interesting.
It depends on your goal, right, And I think this is something
that Ben could talk about, SoI'll head it over in a second.
But you know, I think wetend to be actually more like these steady

(14:37):
teams that don't really put our chipsin in any given year. And you
know, I think what it comesdown to is what your goal is that
is it winning the division or isit building a championship contender? And so
I mean I think it were wethe Twins or the White Socks, it
would be cool to knock off Clevelandand get to the playoffs, but I

(15:00):
don't think that gives us a teamthat would have a prayer of competing and
to win or make the World Series. I think there's a little bit more
randomness in the actual Major League playoffsthan in the scoreshe playoffs because of the
way some of the September stuff haswaited in scoresheet. So I think there's
probably a little bit more justification inreal life to saying like, let's just

(15:24):
get into the lottery and then youknow, see how far we can go.
I do agree with you that generallywe espouse this all or nothing,
like full rebuild, go for thechampionship because flags fly forever sort of strategy,
and then we don't really do thatvery well at least haven't, you

(15:48):
know, like you know, likewe haven't I think see some of the
opportunities that were available to us toreally fully rebuild. And it's a typical
story. But I think it's like, you know, we don't really want
to admit to ourselves that m EvanLongoria is not going to be part of
a championship corp again. Or um, you know, Felix Fernandez is not

(16:14):
a keeper and so you you know, you hold on to him for a
year too long and then his valuesbasically expire to you and you know,
so yeah, or that conversely thatour team is like one player away,
we should cash in Aloy him thenas or Kyle Tucker for a player who
could win us a league this year, like Clueber, is that what you're

(16:36):
getting it? Yeah? Possibly,although I mean maybe not Cluber specifically,
but somebody like Cluber. Yeah,just as a like I think we we
tend to behave the way a lotof the general managers in the AO do,
and it is distressing to me whenI see other teams do it.
So you know, maybe, asEric suggested, we should be a little

(17:00):
bit more reflective. That's boy.Yeah all right, UM, speaking of
boring, UM, I do wantto talk about each team briefly and do
something something like I did in theNL last week, where focus on let's
say, one interesting player. Sojust to define the terms, I it's

(17:22):
not like quite a breakout player,I think, but it is the player
who I am watching the most inthe early season. They are players who
have tended to end up on ourteams for one reason or another. Um,
and possibly like players who I havea good feeling about. But maybe
if they fail, we will nevertalk about them again and they will go
in the official Greg Bird memory hole. Oh you know, okay, not

(17:51):
not to Greg Bird, who isa great joke. UM nearly drafted him
again by the end of this season. Really good and swing training. I
like right now, I am justlike on the top of that roller coaster
once again, like just going Idon't know what's coming up next, and
like we we know it's coming upnext. It is straight down hill.
It is a shot downward. Butlike you know, maybe if he you

(18:17):
know, um, like they movedquite over. Maybe they bench Brett Gardner.
I don't know, like the godget some plate appearances with Greg Byrd
here, you don't Yankees are great? Yeah, but all right, so
I want to go west to Eastfor some reason and best team to worst
team for some reason. Um,so we'll start the where uh Houston Astros.

(18:42):
Uh, you know, I don'tfeel like the heastn Astros have a
lot of like potential breakout players necessarilya player who I've liked. He has
an end up on any of ourteams, but you wanted them pretty badly.
Brad Peacock up moved back into therotation. And the Astros have a
billion pitchers, and I feel likeall of their starting pitchers are somewhat valued

(19:02):
in score sheet, including their rookies, other than other than the ass obviously,
just because I think the Astros areone of the teams like the Dodgers
that may just you know, Galaxyminded themselves beyond the concerts. A starting
pitcher and just they're going to haveeveryone through three innings from now on.
So I don't know that Brad Peacockwill hold his job even if he is

(19:23):
a good starter, but I dolike him as a number three, number
two starter. I'm also interested inwhat Carlos Krea does. He's injured again.
You know, I'm little concerned,but I would like to see him
break out of it. Los AngelesAngels. So I have a question about
Krea. Yeah, are you reallythinking breakoun? Are you just thinking return

(19:44):
to form? Yeah? I returnedto form. I would I would say
I'm curious as to what his nextfive hundred plate appearances would be like,
if that's the best way I candefine the exercise. You know, I
think had he not been injured,I think this would have been a year
where we could have seen a jump. Now I'm starting to get a little
too very worried, but you know, I'm still curious, Like I want

(20:10):
to see him payoff obviously what hecould be Los Angeles Angels and Anaheim.
Again, it's not a team withlike a ton of transition or a ton
of breakout potential, a player whowe're just going to ride or die with
forever is Tyler Skaggs, who,if you recall from last year, had
a two and a half a year. For the first three months it looked

(20:32):
like he was finally cashing in oneverything. Got hurt immediately like just I
don't know, spit the bit andlike bomb. The second half of the
season ended up with the same yarrahe always does. I am in once
again. I do think there isa version of him that is like a
number two starter at one point,and we may see that season, but

(20:53):
he will probably always be hurt ina fourth starter, and maybe if he
has another season like that, Iwill finally come to a set that the
Oakland Athletics. I think it's apopular breakout pick, but we have really
loved and put a planted a flagin taking Ramon Loriano again, who has

(21:14):
been terrific throughout his career with theexception of one terrible season in the minors
in Houston. You know, notthat you can exercise that necessarily, but
if you, if you do,take it out of his career, the
rest of his career makes sense.I think obviously even without breaking out,

(21:34):
he's probably a two to three winplayer, mostly on the defensive side.
But I think Thunderbirds our go.If that's not exciting to you. Chad
Pinder is a player who we havebeen targeting in a lot of leagues as
well. You drafted him in themock draft, just pure stack cast nonsense.
He just hits the ball very hard, and there's something intriguing about him.

(21:57):
There. Seattle is another team withoutlike a ton of breakout potential.
I guess I'm interested in You saya Cucci, but I don't know.
I don't really think of him aslike a breakout player. I think he's
fine. I watched him again obviouslythis week. He seemed fine. I
don't know. Maybe he's better thanbehind, but I haven't seen it yet.

(22:21):
I'm curious to see if we giveDomingo Santana one more starting job,
if he is going to just belike the adequate, strong offense, poor
defense, corner outfielder that I hadalways expected. You know, he got
shuttled around a little bit in Milwaukee, which ran out of room in patience

(22:41):
with him. But you know,I do think as a last chance,
I think he's ended up in agood place Texas. There are certainly some
interesting players on the offensive side.You know, it would be. I'm
curious if freaked at a door cando it again, Curious if Joey Gallo

(23:03):
could take a step. But Ithink that's those players are pretty obvious just
to focus on their like rehab casesand veteran misfit toys that they called their
rotation. For a second, MikeMiner hasn't one like all of our teams
for some reason. I don't particularlylike him, but you know, he
had a pretty good comeback year inKansas City. I think there's a little

(23:23):
more there. He's definitely not gonnabe pressed for innings, like if he
is ambulatory, he's gonna throw onehundred and fifty innings, you know.
I think there's a lot to besaid for that. I'd also like to
call attention to Drew Smiley. Idon't know, you know, obviously he's
missed like two seasons in the rownow, which is pretty dismal. But

(23:47):
I think the Drew Smiley before hegot hurt was on the version of breakout.
I don't know if any of thatis left in there, but I'm
and from what I saw the springtraining numbers, I didn't really see that
in there, but I'm enough tobe curious, which I guess is Texas
entire pitching strategy sig signing the projectsIn twenty eleven, see what happens u

(24:15):
in the Ale Central Cleveland again nota team with like a ton of surprises.
No team has really changed its rosterat all, which is a sign
for the Ale. There's like alot of stagnancy up and down the roster.
Shane Bieber is a player who wethink could probably take another step forward.

(24:37):
Um, I like how you saywe either that's clever. Yeah,
I picked him up in a roadof league. I'm in all in on
Shane Bieber. You're a believer.Yeah, we believe, we believe.
We don't joke about Jane Bieber.Like that's right right now, too obvious
and beneath us. Sure, butyeah, you know, I think there's

(25:08):
always been hope that this kind ofplayer, uh, this kind of this
type of player, like the controlfreak um gave a bunch of bunch of
home runs but hopefully all solo homeruns. That's always been kind of a
favorite version of our favorite player ofours. Um. But you know,

(25:29):
I think the thing that distinguishes Beavera little bit is that he actually has
some velocity to back it up.So it's not just like Josh Towers,
Um like lookout situation I have,it's Joshed twisty. I still think the
breakout is in there somewhere. He'sabout forty. It could happen. Um,
the Minnesota Twins obviously Bayern Buxton,Like you know, we don't have

(25:56):
him in any teams. We likeaggressively got rid of him. But aren't
you interested to see them next fivehundred bats of Byron Buckston's career. Yes,
I feel like that will tell usa lot. Um. Also,
I feel like I haven't heard enoughabout Michael Pineda coming back. Um.
You know, I don't know ifeveryone just got tired of him, but
I think there's a version of MichaelPinada that could be a very very good

(26:18):
picture. I you know, hehad Tommy John surgery, which feels relatively
standard. I haven't heard anything bad. Um, I'm curious. I like,
I think the baseline is a midrotation starter. I think there's still
upside. Maybe he's just you know, boring at this point, but I
am I would like to see ifMinnesota can get anything out of him.

(26:41):
Um. I have a theory thatWilliams Studio has been overdrafted in every fantasy
league. Yes, yes, that'sthat's true. I've been watching the Twins
a bunch lists last week. He'sfun. I get it, I get
it. His helmet flies off allthe time. Yeah, I do want
to pick him as a breakout pickbecause he is obviously the internet's favorite child.

(27:03):
Sure right, you know if youare listening to this already, But
yeah, at least for next year. Like I, it's hard for me
to imagine how he'll get enough atbest to succeed, although obviously he does.
He's going to be a top fivecatcher. Yeah, so yeah,
I guess it's a breakout. TheWhite Sox m everything is sad elo him

(27:30):
as Yes, Um, you know, it's not like a surprising breakout,
but I am very curious to seeif Elohim and as Ken deliver on his
promise. I think we are relativelyhigh on him at this point, even
among other people. I think scoresheetis a reasonably good format for him,
although he as a right handed outfielderwithout a lot of defense like kind of

(27:56):
limits is overall upside. But um, you know, with as a player
in a good ball park without alot of defense. I think score she'd
also catch us downside a little bit. And I don't know, like Lucas
Giolito is throwing harder in spring training, and I don't know what to do
with that. I'm just gonna noteit. I've never seen him pitch well,

(28:25):
so that would be nice. Iguess it's interesting, like I've been
hearing all spring training about Martine Perezbreakout. For instance, he's throwing a
few miles per hour harder if hemissed it as well. And then I
just watched him and it's like fourwalks, four strikeouts, a bunch of
runs. I know that's Martine Paris. I don't mean this to imply anything,

(28:51):
but do we have a sense forhow players that are sort of the
mid career, especially pitchers, Iguess, are able to improve such a
rock component of performance like velocity um. Well, with Paris, what they
were saying was a lot of itwas hip rotation um that they felt like
he was a little too staff andthey were able to diagnose it because they

(29:15):
brought like, you know, likevideo equipment for the first time. And
right we're in a position where it'slike every change could be real because that's
what twenty eighteens in baseball, It'slike, yeah, we you know,
if someone's like some like discount hittingtrue coach like pulled up like a truck

(29:40):
and in that truck was like videoof how a player was doing badly and
then there was like a radio activeserum and he got bit by a spider.
I don't know, like every storyabout a player's um break out potential,
I'm like, yeah, I guess, I guess that's true. Now
Max Munsey's good, so anything couldhappen. Uh. So I don't know.

(30:03):
Uh, it's a strange time tobe a fan. UM. You
know, I think everyone is justkind of relying on uh, you know,
maybe technology will save us. UMin Detroit, Uh, you know,
that's a that's a rough team.M there's not a lot of excitements,
but I'm there in the Greater Michiganarea. UM, I am interested

(30:30):
to see if Jamber Candelaria can gethis hitting. Uh. I don't want
to say back. You know,he I always liked his bat in the
miners um, but he's always alittle older his levels. This could just
be who he is. I thinkthere's maybe potential for a breakout and there's
not a lot else that's super excitingthere. So I will be watching him

(30:52):
when I watch the Tigers, whichwill be extremely extremely infrequently. Casey actually
has a bunch of interesting players,none of which are the fast guys.
Really, that's I don't know,have you been hearing about like, well,
you know Casey's They're not gonna beany good, but at least they'll
be fun. Yeah, it's likeit is. I don't know, do

(31:17):
I watch the game differently? Islike two eighty on base outfielders who like
dance off first base a lot?Is that fun? Or like, were
we missing that from the game?I don't know, Like a lot of
steels can be fun. I guessI've never found like the running game that
it's not my favorite part of baseballfor sure, and like throws over to

(31:40):
first start like my single least favoritepart of baseball. Yeah that's fair.
Um, well that's because you're thehome run you don't care about. I'm
based off it's just tea. Yeah, that's that's fair. Uh And whereas
you're you play the game the rightway? Okay, absolutely, But the

(32:05):
one fast guy who I guess I'minterested in, um, you know,
I was not a believer or notold vertime honesty. I'm still probably more
on the skeptical side, but Ithink given the darth of exciting options to
pick from, I think he's obviouslythe player who will dictate the future of
Kansas City the most in the nextyou know, over the next season,

(32:30):
like if he becomes a star,which I guess it is possible, right
if the power comes around. Yeah, Like, even without plate discipline,
you can see a version of himthat's very exciting in the way that Hobby
er bay As was last year.And you know, maybe that's something to
build around or get excited by anddoesn't take much. I mean, we'll

(32:53):
get to a team that doesn't haveit in a second, but um,
before that. Moving to the East, so the New York Yankees are there,
The New York Yankees are gonna befun as heck, no, we
should just accept that. I don'tfeel like they have a ton of breakout
players. They just have a lotof players who are like really good and

(33:14):
exciting and fun and hit the ballextremely far. And the world was a
better place when the Yankees were mediocre, yeah and old, right, and
now they're just like young and allthe players are fun. It happened so
fast, Like I feel like,maybe it's just because I wasn't paying attention,
but I feel like we like smashcut from the old mediocre and Yankees

(33:38):
to the young, the fun Yankees. I'm like, I guess, I
guess these guys are fun to watch. Like yeah, it felt like for
a decade it was like the endof Mark to SHARE's career, just like
steadily schooling out before us. Andthen all of a sudden, it's like,
oh, everyone's twenty three and theyhit the ball like a mile and
a half. I okay, great, So I look forward to getting wanted

(34:02):
by Yankee Stadium security for half anhour, um several times this year because
you know, make the track upto Yankee Stadium where customer service is an
option. Just they do have likethe least the worst customer service in baseball.

(34:23):
Some somebody needs to say it.It's just like a bad experience to
go to Yankee Stadium. Um,But you know, I guess at least
the team will be exciting when you'relistening to Cotton I Joe for the eight
hundredth time, like update your okaynext next week? Stocking the Yankee Stadium
experience. I have notes when Igo to a game nexst I will I

(34:49):
will take note if they have actuallychanged anything. Um. But as for
players breakout players, UM, Iwant to go a little off track.
I mean, obviously, like labortours will be fun and Eric Judge will
be fun, It'll be interesting.Ce Floyd will come back and you know,
Abe, we'll hear something out ofGreg bird who but uh, you

(35:10):
know, CC Sabathia's condition and someof the injuries will lead to a couple
of rotation spots. Johnson Lowizaca isgetting a lot of play in the early
going. I think he's an interestingbreakout. I did want to flag Domingo
Harman. Maybe there's nothing there,but you know there, I could also

(35:31):
see him breaking out a little bitand it would kind of be the old
standard way of like getting your controltogether a little bit. But I've always
liked him. I feel like hehas some, um like the bare bones
of a player who could be moreinteresting. And if not, you know,
he'll be the eight thousandth flamethrower inthe bullpen. So run me through

(35:55):
a scenario where the ink he hasbeen fewer than ninety five games. It's
really really a challenge. Um,I think I think you could see a
way. I think you are predictingbreak or breakouts or steadiness for a lot
of players and who are you know, obviously on a step. But let's

(36:15):
say glabor tours crashes you know,um if I mean injuries could derail anybody's
season. Yeah, sure, butI mean you have to be a lot
like looking over the rest all right, I mean they don't even need glabor
tours. Yeah, they have detalike they right, they have actual like

(36:37):
starts on the Yankees. Now,oh my gosh, there's there's your twenty
nineteen AO previous on the Yankees.Like a utility rule. Yeah, they're
like, maybe we'll squeeze him intofirst base occasionally. Like you just it's

(36:58):
like it's like you go to Costcoand you have a Costco card after not
having one for a while, andthen you're like, why do we have
thirty six cancer tuna. I meanthat's the thing. Like, if they
sustained two major injuries to the hittersand two major injuries to start of pitchers,
I think they're still fine. Yeah, yeah, but they might not
win ninety five. I think theystill would It's really true, Like they

(37:22):
you know, they are down acouple of starters, and I'm like,
they could probably lose all their startersand just throw bullpen games and be fine.
That's the kind of scoresy team Iwant to have. Honestly, Like,
you guys already know this. Youguys already know this because I've been
talking about this since we were inWasserman together back in the day. It
was just like that was back whenand I tried to build that team.

(37:45):
That was back before we were runningteams together. But it's just so much
more fun that way. It's likethere's a certain excitement, so like,
can I win this like fourteen tothirteen baseball game? We'll get there.
They are running your dream Scoreshee team. Though it is it is sad.

(38:07):
It's just sad all around good Yankeesfun. Everything is bad. Um moving
on to everything being bad Boston RedSox again, Like, I don't think
they need breakout players. Um,I feel like I'm higher in Raphael Devers

(38:28):
than consensus. He's like he waslike twenty one last year, right,
everyone realizes that. And I guessyou saw like the downside to him.
You know, maybe he's not gonnaget on base enough. You know,
if he doesn't play defense well enough, he's gonna get moved over to first
or to another team. And likethere's definitely there's definitely a path where he
like crashes out of baseball. Butum, you know, I think he

(38:49):
can also really just hit the snotout of the ball and maybe there's a
version of him that is a starand maybe it starts this year. Um.
He also entered up with Jackie Bradleyjun year number teams. Um.
I again, maybe I do feellike there's one season where Jackie Bradley junior
and he's older than he's like twentynine now right or thirty. Um,

(39:10):
but I do feel like there's oneseason where he's just gonna put together every
trait that he is flashed and thenstill trying to defend from. No,
he's he's gone higher than that sincethen. We drafted him in the sixth
round like six years ago, andwe were proven right over time. I

(39:32):
think we were the ones that draftedhim earlier a few of those times.
But um, yeah, no,I think he's shown every like there might
be a Jacoby Ells for a twentyeleven, maybe not to that degree,
but like he has a lot ofdifferent tools and you can see them all
come together. Um, Tampa theSan Diego of the South. San Diego

(39:57):
is also of the South Southeast Alethen San Diego the AO landed on it.
Everyone's interesting. They have a lotof fun. Like the Yankees could
get could have like two injuries andstill win ninety five games. Tampa could
suffer like seven injuries and still haveessentially the same eighty four win team.

(40:19):
It's like a different talent. Idon't know if it's exciting. It's like
a strange party track. We leavethe universe and to win players. But
um, you know, obviously they'velike amortized their team, and you know
they have like nine or ten playersthat could be like interesting breakouts. I

(40:45):
would highlight of them. I thinkthe one I'm most interested in right at
first is Brandon Law of the recentextension. You know, is just if
you PLoP them at second or PLoPat first, is there a twenty five
home run bat in there early on? But you know, could be a

(41:05):
billion player, could be Tyler Glassnow, could be Awesome Meadows, maybe
Tommy Fantasy MVP candidate. We'll getto that, you know, is it
Kevin Kermeyer coming back just every everylike everyone could be good and maybe everyone
will just be a two win player. So I have a question about this
because I think it's like one ofthe oldest tenants of like analytics in terms

(41:29):
of team building, that stars andscrubs is easier to upgrade than like,
you know, a plethora of mediocreplayers mediocrity. And the Rays are obviously
a smart group of folks, especiallyin the front office. What do you
think is there like pitch around thisapproach, Like what is the strategy like

(41:52):
when they are like drawing up thegame plan, you know, how do
you think they're thinking about, liketheir route to success, given you know,
a roster of like you said,two win players. I mean,
it's interesting. I guess they havetried to seek out players with higher variants.

(42:13):
It's I think why they traded forfam It's why they traded for Austin
Meadows and you know Tyler Glass.Now, so maybe that's part of it.
Like the other thing is they didn'tcome from like, well, we
don't want any stars. I thinkthey have turned a bunch of potential zero

(42:37):
win players into two win players throughplayer development and so in that sense.
You know, maybe they will beable to trade four for one and get
a star that way. Yeah,I mean I think money is part of
it, right, they that's justhow they had a constructive team that I
think. You know, I thinkit's not illogical to have a scenario where,

(42:58):
you know, having no holes.That is pretty important too, to
have nobody with negative or zero wargoing on, and then you I'm just
disappointed that Toronto is coming up nextbecause like the perfect seguay, but okay,
and then maybe look into a seasonor one or two you guys has
a fluky or breakout year, youknow, Yeah, that makes sense.

(43:22):
Yeah, it's interesting, And likeI think the most likely scenario is they
missed the playoffs by ten games.Yeah, but I can see them pushing
Austin. It's harder for me tosee them pushing the Yankees, right,
you just have right, I thinkit's what you were saying, You just
have to get into the playoffs somehowI figure out what's doing from there.

(43:46):
Yeah, and it's an exciting challenge. So yeah, I think there'll be
one of the teams I will bewatching the most in the early going until
I understand better what they are Torontois also like sneaky, a little more
fun than you would expect. Obviously, they will get a lot more fun

(44:07):
in three weeks where Vladimir Carr Juniorbecomes a major leaguer magically has developed enough
to be major league college burer afterthe Super two deadline. I just think,
like when he had the oblique injuryin spring training, there must have

(44:28):
been someone who did, like thelike Jerry McGuire elbow yes to themselves and
we were like no, I mean, he was perfect the whole time.
We just thought the injury and all. But you know, they're about to
get very fun on the roster rightnow. I don't think they are like

(44:50):
a ton of, like again,exciting breakout players. We talked about this
Dre in the Mock Draft podcast.I think Danny Jansen, it will has
the starting job. Um. Idon't know that he's a breakout player so
much as a good player who willhave a starting job for the first time.
Um. But I am curious tosee if there is even more in

(45:10):
there then um we might think.And I feel like even the downside,
like catcher is such a nightmare,Like if he's just a typical starting catcher,
Yeah, that's fine too. Umso there's one team left that was
like a great um rap around.I think we did a good job.
That's how heartbreaking appreciate it. Wecovered all the useful teams. Yeah,

(45:37):
so I don't know how to approachthis season preview. UM. Last week
on fangrafts dot com, Uh,they uh, they did a season preview
of their own where instead of goingby team, they went by position and
ranked all the teams placed in thedepth charts. Um. I had trouble

(46:02):
finding the Baltimore Orioles in these rankings. Is maybe you need a new prescription?
Yeah, just because you know,you like reading article in the long
article and it's sometimes hard to scrollall the way to about it and I
probably just missed them somewhere in themiddle. Yes, but um boy,
would you line it up? Whatwas there was like one position where they

(46:27):
were twenty six? Right? Wasthat left field? Yes? Maybe where
they were wearing twenty six And thatwas like the high water. It was
like they should have held a paradethat day. They're consistent. That's what
you want in a team, right, Consistency More thirties than the end of

(46:50):
draft copy in a newspaper article.Oh boy, it was just uh is
a oh my god. I waslooking at that and going, I don't
know if I can watch this teamonce a month, So you're having to

(47:12):
do it once a day. Yeah, so you're gonna watch the team every
day? Yeah, just turn onthe team and go, I wonder what
these players are up to. Yeah, it's exciting, it's gonna be fun.
So, Jared, I'm gonna turnover to you, which player are
you most excited by to watch anopening day? How do you limit it

(47:37):
to just one opening day? Imean obviously opening day starter and yourew Cashner's
gonna be exciting, um, butnot there you want him to be.
Probably, I'm fascinated about what happenswith Chris Davis. Yeah, what's I

(47:57):
mean, what's his strike at rateat which they could bait on him,
like sixty percent? There's got tobe a number where they're like, no,
you're calling it, but I don'tknow what that number is. Just
to see him approach infinite strikeouts likeyeah, like the Alan Shepherd, just
pour off it, just like right, breaking like breaking the space bear,

(48:22):
just like, okay, this isexciting you slt me on that. But
no, I mean it's stop.Like I don't want to say you see
something like Richie Martin, which Iguess, but on any other team,
he's like a backup utility guy.I don't any other team, I'm sorry
to say backup utility guy is extremelygenerous. You gotta give me something here,

(48:47):
you I don't know. I mean, it's it's almost it's almost impressive.
How uninspiring to a t Yeah.Um, Like, it's not just
that they're bad, it's that there'slike no hope anywhere. Um, Like
I could see a scenario like Iwas starting to think, what is the

(49:08):
most optimistic scenario for the Orioles.It's like, okay, well we know
all these players never like never gotany professional minor league development, right,
so maybe they'll learn that, Likemaybe that's good for the pictures. Maybe
there's a way that Dylan Bundy breaksout and they show him like, oh,

(49:28):
you've been pitching wrong, Like,oh so I have. I think
he just gets traded, right,that's just like it. Oh yeah,
if he's any good at all,he's gonna get traded. The media.
Um, I put in Austin Hayesas name there. He's not even on

(49:49):
the opening date your roster anyw rM. I don't know. He was
so bad last year. I guesshe could be. Okay, it's it's
a nightmare. It is just theyare like I've been making a lot of
oriole jokes um over the years,and then you just sit down with a

(50:09):
team and you're like, oh,this is so much worse, and I
imagine this is horrible team. SoI heard this question somewhere else off here
I'm stealing from. But who's theit was All Star that's here? Or
are they going to change the rulesput on the like uh, who would

(50:34):
you put on like the Meebia guide? Um? Yeah, yeah, um,
you know the All Star is goingto be I assume Michael Gibbons,
right, sure, because it's likethey went and down pick the terrible closer
rule. Sure. I mean,but he's gonna have like two saves because

(50:57):
there wasn't gonna win any games bythe All Star break. So yeah,
I think he will also potentially begenuinely the best player on the team in
terms of war as a wand anencloser mitigate the amount of damage he can.
Yeah, so okay, how manywins are you predicting for the Orioles

(51:21):
this year. We haven't really Idon't want to put you on spot here,
but Jared doesn't really do that.Yeah, he just expects them to
win. Yeah. I'm trying tolike, at what point you would take
the over, like sixty right,The Pakoda has him at fifty eight Hard

(51:45):
on dround fifty eight right, Yeah. Man Graphs has him at sixty two.
CBS Sports has him at fifty sixunder under under it's just it's hard.
Champ has him at sixty three.I don't I don't know. It's

(52:09):
so part of me says that they'regoing to be sneaky good this year because
I have to say that. I'myou know, I don't know how it's
gonna be. I've seen everybody doesn'thave to say that. You don't you
don't like to say that. Imean, well, what the reason gonna
happen is They're they're gonna avoid gettingthe number one draft pick next year.
Somehow that's gonna happen. So ifthat means they have to win sixty three

(52:30):
games, fine, so be it. That's what's gonna happen. But it's
hard to like, look at godown to the individual player. Leven build
some sort of modere like looking atthe individual player. How is this team
going to win sixty games? Youcan't. I don't see how you can
do that. Oh my god,I watched Josh Rogers in spring training.
Yep. Oh, like it's notlike there's hope coming from the minors.

(52:53):
Yeah, it's not like they've beenlike sitting on better players helping. These
are just like it's bad in them. The os opening day rotation, it's
injucasher in game one, Game twois a bullpen game, and three,
four and five our question marks.Really yeah, that's amazing. Oh that's

(53:19):
that's that's not great. Yeah,okay, so look forward to that being
a running theme of this podcast forthe season. Um, all right,
so that's that's all. I feellike, in the interest of time,
maybe we should just do some awardsand maybe just if we want to,
um, come up with our playoffteams and award winners for the season.

(53:49):
So, uh, we didn't doplayoff teams in the anal, but um
where it's actually tricky, right,where it's actually interesting. So maybe maybe
we'll warm up at the ale becauseI think we have four plants. Like
okay, So my thought on theseseason preview things. By the way,

(54:13):
um is that they're all done incorrectlybecause it's done like which team do you
predict to win the division? Whichis a dumb question. The question should
be like what are the odds ofeach team winning the division? At least
in a like the saber metric typelocation that said, I don't really have
the time or interest to do that, so we're going to do it the
easy way. Great, but um, there are definitely places that have um

(54:42):
projected that sort of information. Yeah. I think it's I think it's more
fun because it's like that's when it'slike, oh, twenty seven out of
twenty seven people pick the Astros towin the division, but look at the
Angels. I guess nobody knows anything. It's like okay, yeah, but
like you should pick the Astros.Yeah. Like it's not saying that the

(55:02):
Astrois were like a deadlock because twentyseven out of twenty seven people picked them
the first place. It's just likethey're obviously the best team. Yeah.
Yeah. Um, so I feellike you lose sort of gradation. I
feel like you lose like which teamsyou think are likely to break out or
interesting. It's tough to plant aflag and still seem like a sane person.

(55:23):
But that said, we're gonna doit the easy way. So,
um So in the Al we havethe Yankees in the East. I'm gonna
say, yeps, would you needto make say, having the Orioles winning
the East would be while? Butwhat are you on a sports website?
No, I'm just curious, likeif you had, like, at what

(55:45):
point has become off the board?Is there any number? Really? Like,
you know, this is probably worthit from a mathematical perspective to spend
like one dollar and I think higherthan that. Right, No, that's
a waste of a dollar, rightIf I, like Joe Gum for that,
would put a dollar on Actually,if they were really ten thousand to
one, I would probably put likeone hundred dollars down just because that would

(56:06):
be so unfathomable. I feel prettyconfident their ten thousand to one now.
But yeah, but it's hard toimagine there being a number. Um But
yeah, So the Yankees in theAl East, I think we see them

(56:28):
as pretty substantially better in the RedSox Cleveland and Central although you know,
I feel like I like Minnesota tocome closer to challenging them. Yeah,
I think it'll be at least tengames. Think the interesting I would,
Yeah, I would take the under, but like again, like I had

(56:49):
to pick Cleveland, I think tengames is the closest that I can see
any of the various online projections havingthe Twins. I feel like they have
more faith in Corey Cluber than Ido. And I never like teams that
are built so much through pitching asCleveland is, because I feel like projection
systems, you know, they rollthe dice on injury, but not in

(57:14):
like exactly a way that you cando it in real life. Um so
you know, part of me thanksthat Minnesota has a better shot, but
yeah, it's not great. Remindme who the Twins pitchers are. They're
all superstars. Yeah, we wentover that. Yeah, Martin Perez he

(57:34):
picked up from the Velocity. Nobodyinjury prone or anybody that's been in there
are coming back from Tommy Joan oranything like that. It's a bunch of
pitching machines who are sentient. Yeah, really talented. So I get get
news on Bovard Orioles are plus thirtythousand to win the American League est.

(57:55):
Wow, that's gotta be worth atleast dollar. That's a new car for
a dollar, Come on, Iwould I would put it in a mutual
fund. I feel like that getsto be closer to the car. All

(58:16):
right, well, I look forwardto you losing your dollar. In the
West. We have Houston, um, Boston as one of the wild cards.
So as the other wild card,will we say the Tampa ray Base
Yeah, Twins, That's not whatI said. Yeah, I think the

(58:37):
Twins will be the other team closestto the race when the race when the
second wild card, But I don'tthink the Twins will be that close to
the Indians. Yeah. I likethe Twins better as a contender for the
division in an eighty nine win kindof scenario then, although I guess that
would have nine wins would probably getthem ahead of the race. Yeah,

(59:00):
yeah, so maybe eighty five eightysix. Um, you know, and
I don't want to discount the Angelsand they don't want to discount the A's.
I think they are both fairly interesting. Um. I have a stupid
question. We talked about the Angelstwice already, but um, it's since

(59:22):
the Trout extension, right, wedidn't did you have about that. Last
week, we did not talk aboutthe by Trout extension. It will be
an Angel extension, I think so. I think they decided it's crazy,
right, not somebody. All right, he's totally worth it, right,
isn't he totally worth it? Yeah, he's worth more. I tried explaining

(59:45):
that to the co worker. Didnot go, well, yeah, I
don't Okay, all right, that'swhy we didn't talk about it, because
it's boring. He's worth it,he's amazing. I'll hear a trout.
Were they like he's paid too much? Yes, okay, that's why you
just stopped talking about baseball with thatperson. I mean, they're not they're

(01:00:06):
not a dumb person necessarily. It'sjust you can't just like five minutes to
somebody. Well, I don't know. There's like some things where you're just
like, if you can't see this, then it's not gonna be interesting talking
to you about other things, becauseI have no confidence that you'll get anything
else. I mean, I canappreciate how it's hard to fathom that one

(01:00:30):
baseball player is worth over four hundredmillion dollars. I can appreciate. Okay,
do you just like go to BaseballReference and show that Chris Davis's contract
and then say like four times thisyou could have him or four of these,

(01:01:00):
just like, don't make me googleMark Trumbo. It's just sorry for
that tangent. I guess we'll comeback to that in a second anyway,
right, all right, So inthe National League, just to start from
the easy position, I guess theDodgers in the West. Ye, yeah,

(01:01:22):
okay, that's it for the easypositions. Uh, in the Central
who you got Cardinals? Oh no, I had the Cardinals too. Oh
no, Well, I don't know. This is the problem with the Cardinals
is I don't like their pitching asmuch as I think the projections stuff like

(01:01:43):
they're pitching. I know, goingto college in Chicago leaves you guys hating
Cubs fins, But I feel likeCardinals fans don't not really any better.
No, no, you don't.You don't complain about Cardinals fans nearly as
often as you complain about Cubs fins. And I take umbradge with that.
Oh, I think that is acorrect decision. Well, like I said,

(01:02:04):
I think it's because you went tocollege in Chicago. Yeah, I
be more Cubs fan than Cardinals fansthat is fair. It's like exposure bias
or whatever. Yeah. Um,I might actually say the Cubs, don't
don't let them pressure into this.Yeah, it's not even that I think
the Cubs will win the division.I do think you like, those two

(01:02:24):
wild card spots are just gonna beamazingly fun to watch. Um. Yeah,
yeah, we would hope. Yeah. Um, I think certainly all
five teams have at least some shot. It's hard for me to construct this
way where the Pirates win, butabout all five teams in ESSENTI will have

(01:02:45):
a chance of this. Yeah,yeah, yeah, okay, I agree
with thing. Um. I dothink it's fairly unlikely that it's the Reds.
Also, I know you mentioned thePirates. I also but yeah,
it seems like the Reds have perceiveda strategy of like signing famous people,

(01:03:07):
which is not like ideal, butit's also very Reds of them. Yeah,
but you know, I it's notout of the question. I think
they have a lot of talented hangingaround the upper miners. Yeah, it's
possible, but very rightly. Um, right, I do think it comes
down to three teams. M Iwould probably say the Cardinals. Given April,

(01:03:30):
I might just change my answer tothe Cubs given the vagaries of pitching.
I don't see how you could.I think the Brewers are easily in
the mix as well. I don'tsee how you could change your division pick
based on spring training. Oh,the vagaries of pitching, not spring training.
I thought you said based on April. Oh, based on the team

(01:03:52):
that they are rolling into, Likeif if you told me one hundred and
sixty two games of these people.Okay, I used our composition today basically,
Yeah, okay, I think theCubs probably have more resources to spend,
and although like they don't have,the Cubs don't have a ton of

(01:04:13):
depth. But I feel like theCardinals have even less depth in the rotation
and they don't quite realize it,which may point towards Milwaukee, who actually
do have rotation depth. Yeah.When I was having and hanging about the
Cardinals, I was actually thinking aboutthe Brewers, not the Cubs. Um.
All right, so we may wemay all have to go our own

(01:04:35):
way on this. How much moreexciting would baseball be if the Rays were
in this division? That would begreat? Yeah, all right, you
should have like a good team's divisionand everyone else division relegation. That's fair.
Yeah, you can see, likethe Marlins playing against the Orioles thirty

(01:04:58):
five times a year or whatever.Sounds great. It's like, sorry,
this game has been called due tozero to zero and the ninth I like,
nobody's done anything that constitutes a baseballskill, Jared, is that your
idea of heaven or hell? Yes? I like, instead of experimenting the

(01:05:25):
Atlantic League, they should just letthe O's and Marlins play each other like
an entire bud. Just do whateverrules they want. Calvin Ballitt, Yes,
I would probably watch that, oryou do, like, uh,
you know, they have to playa hundred games in a row and after
every game, the winner gets tomake a new rule. Oh that sounds

(01:05:48):
good. All right, Sorry,let's predict that. At least I keep
taking us on terrible tangents. Um, I don't really have a good answer
to who will win the A.At least I do not feel good about
any pick. I will you meanthe NL East, right? I think,
yeah, at least I feel relativelyconfident. Um, And at least

(01:06:13):
I don't know off the top ofmy head. I would probably say Nationals.
Again, I'm saying Nats, andI just said, because I appreciate
Hu risk, but I think that'sit's tough to say which team in the
division has the most hubrists, thoughI feel like I feel like I guess

(01:06:38):
just to bekn Tray and I'll pickthe Phillies. I don't really think they'll
win. Actually, I think it'sthe Nationals, but I mean, I
don't think it's any more than liketwenty five, twenty four, twenty two,
eighteen. So I don't feel stronglyabout the Nationals pack. You can
convince me it's the Phillies. Ifeel like the Phillies do have of strow

(01:07:00):
top end talent. They probably havea deeper rotation. Um. I don't
like with my issue with the Philliesis I probably don't think that like Jean
Sigura is quite as great like someof their upgrades. I do think real
Media is great, but I thinkhe'll fall back a little bit. Um.

(01:07:21):
The Phillies to me, have afew more holes than the Nats do
at the outset. But um,do you think there's a chance that the
Braves win that division? Oh?Yeah, what chance? Yeah? And
the Mets also could Yeah, theMarlins definitely could not. Or you know,

(01:07:42):
yeah, I like the Marlins betterthan consensus. I don't think they're
dismal, but um, you'd pickthem against the Os in the one hundred
game series. Oh yeah, youcan at least pretend to think about it.
Then no Marlins would win as Marlinswould win like any time to ninety
against the Oriels. There, Ithink they're a much better team. They

(01:08:05):
have no offense, but they havelike four to five interesting starting pitchers.
Oris TBD sorry game two we justno, no, no, no,
the bullpen game is game to TBDis game Sorry sorry I thought this,
um no at Atlanta, Like,I don't think it's hard to see like

(01:08:28):
three to four breakouts from their stablestarting pitchers. I just wonder whether they'll
be able to find cycle through theright pictures and enough time to not like
drop a bunch of games in Apriland May. Um, but you know,
it doesn't take much to think thatlike Ozzie Albies could break out or
round County. It could get evenbetter. Josh Donaldson could be a six

(01:08:51):
win, seven win player. Like, I don't think any of that's like
unfathomable. And if that happens,then all of a sudden they're winning division.
You know, I just don't thinkit's the most likely picks, which
is why I would say percentages aremore interesting then top line stats, right,
um and the math. You know. I am probably less into the

(01:09:15):
mats than the projections, but Ithink they have an easy path to wedding
division as well, so totally conceivable. Um so yeah, I don't.
I don't know. Um, Ido think probably I would have whichever whichever
one I end up hemming and haulingwith, between the Nats and Phillies,

(01:09:35):
I would have one of them asthe wild card or the number one wild
card for me, and number twocould be the other one out of the
East instead of the Central. Yeah, it doesn't it doesn't have to be
the Cardinals. Sorry, I'll saycovers for the second while. Yeah,

(01:09:58):
so Jared, you've got Phillies,Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs and yeah.
Yeah, um, I don't wantto say exactly the same, but probably
I would say that in a differentorder. Um I might. I might
say Atlanta with the second world card, just to vary it if we had

(01:10:21):
to. But like if I werecoming back from the future and I told
you it was like Mets, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Yeah, sure
would you believe me enough to likego bet your life savings on it.
Sure, if you told me theRockies were champion, like, I could
see. I don't really like whatthe Rockies have done, but I could

(01:10:42):
see it. He told me thePadres had the best record in the NL.
I think there's a really clear pathto that happening. Yes, less
likely than the others, but yeah, sure, all right, So UM

(01:11:03):
awards quick. Yeah, so alMVP. Before before it started, we
uh put together a little short list, so Mike Trout, Yeah, so
having a combination of like stories andplayers, I feel like I feel like

(01:11:24):
storyline has become less and less importantto voting goodness with more and more nerds
taking over. Um, but youknow there's still elements of that. So
certainly, Mike Trout, Mickey Bett'son the list. Um, I think
I put Xander Bogart's on the list. I could see his age twenty seven

(01:11:44):
season being very interesting. Um.If the Red Sox do pass the Yankees,
something has death changed in order forthat to happen. If the Yankees
win, um, I feel likeAaron Judge might just win and be based
on hitting sixty home runs and beinga very physically buzz expensive. Um.

(01:12:06):
If the Astros win one hundred orone hundred two, Um, I don't
know that it could be any ofa bunch of players. I put Alex
Bregman maybe as the most likely tobe the star of that. I feel
like he is on the verge ofbeing very well known. Um. I
feel like he wants to be afamous person. Yeah, a personality.

(01:12:27):
I was gonna say, he's definitelymore interested in putting himself out there.
I feel like, yeah, andI feel like sometimes that pays off in
narrative and MVP votes in particular.Um, which is fine. I'm you
know, I am big supporter ofhis position. Something so great he wants
to be a famous person ideal.I was thinking, what if, like

(01:12:48):
if the Rays surprise, UM,I can't guess. Yeah, well is
it like like it could be BlakeSnell. But I did put Tommy fam
I think there's a potential version ofhim that has the same season he had
two years ago, and that's thelevel season. Yeah. Well, like

(01:13:11):
if the if the Rays win ninetygames, how do they do it?
I mean, this is the questionI was asking earlier Rays, Like it's
got to be somebody breaking out.So whoever that is, that's the answer.
Yeah, and I like it couldbe any of a bunch of people.
You know, that I had himtheoretically is most likely. I don't
think I would put him on atop three list, but just to mention

(01:13:32):
it, um, so probably wewill be bored against. Say, Mike
Trout will be the most valuable playerin the American League. Okay, cool,
say young? I have a fewnames. Uh, I think Chris
Sale is on the list. Um, he's never won a say Young,

(01:13:53):
that seems ridiculous. Um, JustinVerlander and Garrett Cole, the Astros,
a bunch of Cleveland Indians. Iam soften quite cleber this year, but
Trevor Bauer for sure. But Icould see I could see any of the
five starters to me right sneaking intothis. Um. You know, I

(01:14:18):
think the I think the shot thatall five are good is pretty low,
which is why I'm a little downon Cleveland. But you could also see
certainly one of them being a cyYoung caliber player. Um, if the
Yankees are good, maybe James Paxtongets a bunch of wins and is also
a good pitcher, um, thushitting all quadrants and uh, you know,

(01:14:44):
Blake Smell did win last year.I don't. I think it's super
likely he'll go again. But Isee those as the most likely candidates.
Do you have a favorite from that? M I hate them all, but
I go with Chris Hale, reallygo with Gary Cole. I'm gonna go
with Garrett Coll as well. OhI don't. I'm trying to be a

(01:15:05):
contrarian in Yeah. Yeah, Ithink he's a really good picture and I
can see it happening. Um,I'm hoping. I'm hoping that Garrett coll
and Terror Bauer finished one too andcontinued there heated rivalry from UCLA where they
were teammates in college and yet don'ttalk to each other because one of them

(01:15:28):
is a weird though. Figure.I know it's not gonna say who um
Rookie of the Year, Um,I put a few names on. I
think Lad Greyer Junior has a shot. I mean he's not a major league
player right now, but you know, I think by the maybe someday,
Yeah, I think someday he'll figureout how to play at the major league

(01:15:53):
level. Eloy Jimenez um and thencoming up, um, you know,
for Whitley, I think has youcould end up taking Brad Peacock's job we
talked about, but um, we'reColin McHugh. Um. I think he's
very close. Having watched him thespring training, I think Casey's Lazaro had
an amazing spring training, for whateverthat's worth. And then I hurt right

(01:16:15):
at the end of it. Somaybe that's the end of his rookie hops.
Um, And I said Danny Jantsenjust because he has a job in
April, which is always a goodway to compile stats as rookie. Um,
any thoughts here, I mean it'sgonna beg Yeah, I think so.

(01:16:36):
I think he's gonna be too excitingto ignore, even though he'll come
up a little bit later and haveless counting accumulation types of factors, He'll
he'll wow voters. Okay, Um, sure, I think he'll have the
story. I will say, ohahead then as who I think is maybe

(01:16:59):
a little bit more ready, andalso it's going to have the extra gone.
But yeah, I mean I thinkLutgar Dunior is pretty good. So
it's not like a shine. Yeah, there are I mean many scenarios where
it's not him, but you haveto say, oh I did not so
I do not care for your rules, but nonetheless, uh n L MVP,

(01:17:20):
I think n L MVP could bea very long list, just because
again it's a narrative based award stillto some level, and there are a
lot of teams that you could seewith the narrative. Um, is n
L m VP the most interesting awardrace? Do you think? Or like?
Will it turn out to be themost interesting award race? UM?
One of them? I think CyYoung is also going to be fascinating in

(01:17:43):
that league. UM. But youknow, part of it is that I
think, you know, if MikeTrout was in the NL, it would
not be an interesting race, right, And if Bookie Betts was in the
NL, would not be an interestingrace. And I feel like Spreigman would
be the fair like I think thefavorites are still in the ALE, but
there are a lot of players whoI have at a roughly similar level.

(01:18:09):
I think when talking about the alfHe race, he have to talk about
Brace Harper and Manny Machado. Youknow, the classic moved to a new
team the narrative, so they arecertainly on the list. Paul Goldschmidt,
who is moving to a new team. If the Cardinals are successful. Um,
he will probably be the biggest nameas to why. Um, you

(01:18:30):
know, even if he's maybe slippeda little bit from his peak, if
he recovers at all, too,maybe that's a comeback narrative. Um.
If Chris Bryant comes back even towhat he was last year, I think,
you know, he would be thebest player on the Cubs. Uh.

(01:18:57):
You know, I think with probablyyou could back some regression from having
bias, and maybe Anthonys so aswell. So I do think it would
be Bryant's team for another year.The Gnats are interesting, I you know,
I think Anthony Randown has been historicallyunderrated, but maybe it's his team

(01:19:18):
now. I could also see himjust getting passed by one Soto who has
an amazing year and just wins theMVPH twenty years old or whatever he is,
And then you know the Brewers.It's hard for me to imagine Christian
yell Is winning a second award becauseI don't I don't think of him as
like a typical MVP caliber player,but there's no one who really stands out

(01:19:42):
as like headed shoulders above these players, so he would certainly be the best
player and potentially the best team.Do any names from that standout as a
player who will go if they reallydon't? Yeah, okay, yeah,

(01:20:03):
I don't know. I want toCanna take the field. Uh no,
no, you literally a question.Ah, it was worth a shot.
So good at making decisions this seam. Um, I'll say Windown. Okay,

(01:20:28):
I will say one soda ooh allteammates last year. Yes, uh
see, I know stuff about baseballfor I think for much the same reason.
Right, if Washington is going towin the division, I think that
will be very surprising to a lotof people. Yeah, they may look

(01:20:49):
to the best player. Um tothat end, Actually you may find them
here. And I'll say young race. I put a bunch of names on
this list, but um, tocut it down a little bit. Like
Jacob Degram certainly won last year,I could win it again. Max Scherzer,
Um, you know, I thinkcertainly a favorite in this Aaron Nola

(01:21:13):
came in third last year. Um, everyone loves hair Bond Marquez is their
Sleepers a young pickum. And thenI have a bunch of what I would
consider second to your name. SoNoah Synder Guard, Chris Archer, I
put Walker Bueller Steven Strasburg. Ithank you forgot somebody, Jack Flaherty,

(01:21:39):
No, uh, Ian, Who'sthe best picture alive? It's a great
question, Max Richard. I knowhe's starting this season. I know he's
starting the season at the DAL,But I'm gonna go with Clayton Krisha.
Yeah, as a scion winner.Yeah, his team's gonna run away with

(01:22:00):
that division. And if he's evenremotely healthy after he comes back, I
think you know, he also benefitsfrom lord expectations. Yeah yeah, uh
yeah, And he was a prettydarn good picture last year. Healthy.
Um he's always been. Yeah.I I have trouble seeing that as a

(01:22:24):
possibility to be perfectly candidum perfect.But um, you know again, I
think this is a race where thereI had to cut it off somewhere.
But I even had names behind this, Um, none of them were Clayton
Kersha. Nons are in the airwith my palms upward in dismay and surprise,

(01:22:53):
Yeah, James the tie on.I think, do you really think
that Clayton Kersha is not the bestpicture alive? Yes? I think he
was for for a long time.Is it just health? Um? I
think it's health and ability. Ithink his fastball has degraded, and um,

(01:23:14):
you know, I think that's atremendously hard thing to get back,
and it's caused less separation between hisfastball, and it's causes carball to deteriorate
a little bit too. So youthink the dipping velocity is not tied exclusively
to his injury, yes, mor it's to an injury that came.
What would you say as the overunder on his fastball velocity at the end

(01:23:35):
of twenty nineteen? Over under wouldI guess I would probably say a little
under what he was at this year, which is I was thinking, was
that ninety or so pos has forhis fast ball velocity in twenty eighteen.

(01:23:58):
Okay, Um, before that hewas at ninety three point one, ninety
three point seven, ninety four pointthree, ninety three point six, etc.
Ninety threes, high ninety threes,though ninety four is the rest of
his career. Yeah, Um,I guess that's where I would set the
over under. I think I knowwhere you would go with that. I

(01:24:19):
mean, I just think it's it'smore fun to bet over on that,
So I would do that no matterwhat. Yeah, I mean, I
would dearly love you Jared, areyou interested in the under on ninety one
point four? He gradually take theunder? All right, so I'll put

(01:24:42):
a dollar on that. Sure,all right. I don't like being against
Clayton her show, but yeah wemade it through with one prop. Yeah.
And do you want to set aminimum number of pitches for the bet
to count? Yeah? I meanI don't, but sure, let's see,

(01:25:04):
I'm trying to see what the numberof pitches is here? Well,
ben Zing that ian is Clayton Kershawthe best picture on the Dodgers five hundred
pitches? Yeah? For for me? Yeah? Um? I mean is
there a world who which he couldbe the best picture in the Doctor?
Sure? I mean was there?But yeah? Would I pick it now?

(01:25:24):
Yeah? You're gonna pick Peeler?Yeah? John? Are you good
with the minimum five hundred pitches?Sure? Okay? Play four miles?
Yeah? Uh so his average fastballvelocity in September last year it was ninety

(01:25:44):
point six, So yeah, thisone okay? All right? Um that
said, so for Sion, um, I don't have a really good favorite.
Um I part of me one tosay Steve was Strasburg just because it's
uh, it's fun. Yeah,it's fun, isn't it. I do

(01:26:08):
feel like there's one year where itwill happen. Um, I could see
it being Chris Archer or Jameson tieOn, which makes me think that's the
path to parish contention. Yeah,I guess I will go slightly off the

(01:26:29):
board and say no underguard. HCan I take the field here? Let's
see how you can call it goingoff the board. When you created the
board, maybe you just made abetter board. Also, he was on
the board. I said, offthe board of a board that I created

(01:26:51):
that he was just to follow thethought of wow, awesome. But I
don't think. I don't think he'sthe favorite, but I think, um,
there's I could see a scenario.Is dallas Kiko still unsigned? Dallas
ki is still unsigned. What ifhe signs with like one of these central

(01:27:14):
teams, like the Brewers or something, and just like it goes bananas.
It would be hard to imagine himgoing bananas, but I could see that
happening very clearly. Wait, it'shard to imagine him pining banas wen.
I could see the first half ofit. Signing with anal central team.
Oh yeah, yeah, Okay,I think it would be a good fit.

(01:27:35):
On Saint Louis. I think itwould be a good fit on Milwaukee.
Yeah, I think it would bea decent fit on the Reds,
who have been trying to sign himfor a few months. I also think
he's a number four starter at thispoint. So but you know, those
teams could use it. Hum andn I'll work just quickly. So uh.

(01:28:00):
I have Fernando Tatis, who wasannounced today or yesterday when you listen
to this, will be starting theseason in the major leagues. So AJ
Prewler not afraid to throw those bones. Chris Paddock who will be starting season
in major leagues, get get themextensions. J. Prowler, H.

(01:28:21):
Francisco Mihia. Are we gonna gowith an all padre rookie one two three?
UM? I think Pete Alonzo doesa lot of things that voters like
Nickson Zel got hurt, but hecould be up very early. UM.
And then a bunch of um Atlantapitchers M. Kyle Wright is going to

(01:28:48):
be in the rotation to start theyear. I really like Bryce Wilson who's
going to be in the rotation tostart the year. UM. So that's
a lot of a lot of possibilities. I don't know if anyone has any
thoughts on this. I do likea Padre to win. I'm not sure

(01:29:08):
who my favorite is going to be. I don't think it's Fernando Tattoos,
who I don't think is immediately goingto break out, although certainly in spring
training he has looked great and wouldput that to put that's to shame.
I probably would say Chris Paddock evenhealth. Just all in it on Chris

(01:29:29):
Paddick. Yeah, well yeah,at least for an IL Workie of the
year. I do think he couldbe at the margins of the cy Young
conversation. And he has a jobin April, so yes, I all
in. Okay, I look forwardto those all being wrong. That's the

(01:29:49):
whole point, right, Yeah,when we're celebrating the OILS championship the end
of the year, we'll just deletethis podcast casually. All right, until
then, let's wrap this up.I guess, quickly, the best things
you saw this week? N Iguess I'll start with you, all right.

(01:30:11):
I went to Austin this weekend fora tournament. It was fun.
We played moderately well but not amazingly. But the best thing that I saw
was the brisket from Franklin's. BeforeI put it in my mouth. There
was like six pounds of slice brisketthat I bought, and then I also
bought vacuum sealed brisket to bring homesix pounds each, one for me and

(01:30:36):
each of YouTube. So I carriedsomething like twenty pounds of brisket into the
airport in a giant cooler. Ihad to check the cooler and I got
a cute little note from TSA sayingthey had to inspect my bag. I
don't understand why there were two icepacks, twenty pounds of brisket and two
bottles of barbecue sauce in there,but normal for a checked bag. Thank

(01:31:00):
you very much. Yeah, thebrisket is delicious and amazing. Franklins is
awesome. Go there if you're everin Austin. Yeah. Yeah, I
think I feel like there are twokinds of people in well, three kinds
of people, vegetarians, people whohave not been here, and people who
would carry twenty pounds pounds of meat. You know, I did get a

(01:31:23):
bruise on my shoulder from carrying thebag because I'd like carried it on the
same spot and it was so justimagining a weight room. But so so,
the best thing I saw this weekwas the best thing I think a

(01:31:44):
lot of people saw this week.I watched the Seattle Oakland game two,
because who cares about the start ofthe season. It was all that game
too. So I watched each year'sfinal game, which was moving in all
the right ways. We talked alittle each here last week. I don't
want to labor the point, butcertainly amportant player, and you know,

(01:32:04):
certain like it. Just watching him, it was made it like it took
me back to the first time Isaw him, which may have been the
first baseball game that Heard and Isaw together. I was trying to figure
out if that's true. But becauseI know exactly where I was, I
was in I was in a roomin our dorm and in the blue room

(01:32:25):
in the corner. I remember watchingthe game. I remember the throw um
that was the first time. Yeahyeah, yeah, oh um. So
just seeing that and seeing all oflove for him, you know, obviously
a lot of you experienced that aswell. So um, you know,
I don't think I'm breaking new ground. A couple notes from the game,

(01:32:49):
just because I had other other thaneats hero um number one um I thought,
I thought it was a good podcast. I thought Dave Fleming was and
Eduar Prez it gave way to theoccasion. I think Dave Fleming probably hit
the narrative a little hard after aninning or so, but it was also

(01:33:12):
breaking news for him and I realizedhe had to get a lot of people
on board with each off inning,so he kind of had to restate the
obvious a lot. My favorite,my favorite line for that was when they
Tim Beckham was up and he uh. They were talking about Tim Beckham and
how good a Japan series he washaving, I guess in the preseason games,

(01:33:34):
and in the first two games ofseason, he hits a single up
the middle and Dave Fleming says,it looks like he doesn't want to leave
Tokyo. And I was thinking,like, Matt, when you're talking about
like Tim Beckham's career, like that'sa really like that's plausible. That's a
little too close to home, isn'tit. I don't think he could say

(01:33:57):
that for Tim Beckham because Peop doesn'twant to leave Tokyo. We can make
that happen pretty quickly, within liketwelve minutes. Um. But the other
the other thing was that in thethird inning, Ken Griffy Junior came a
broadcasted inning um and he was justso engaging, and it's like, oh,

(01:34:23):
yeah, that is why baseball wasgreat in the nineties was because their
best player was like charismatic as hell, easygoing, um like funny U Ryan
Healey hit a home run or theywere saying like, how did how could
you tell you know if you hita home run, and it's like,
um, could you just tell fromthe sound of the bad And he was

(01:34:45):
like, uh no, I justI just waited to see if the hitter
moved, if they stayed in thebox. I knew it was a home
run, and I didn't bother gettingin And Ryan healely hit a home run
in the game and they were like, would you have that ball? He's
like, no, did you seea move? Like yeah, it sounds

(01:35:06):
like I need to go watch thisbroadcast. Yeah. I don't think,
you know, I don't think hisopinions are like particularly sabre metric or anything.
But it was just like just likeright exactly. It was just like
such a delight to hear him backin the game, and I kind of
wish he was more of a presence. I kind of wish more people were
like him and like each hero andwhat a good game if you want to

(01:35:30):
know more about the game. Ialso want to recommend one article by VP
alum new Fangrafs writer Rachel McDaniel onthe meaning of Each Hero. It's currently
on Fangraphs. I think she isthe best writer in baseball right now.
I think she's one of the bestwriters right now. And we are just
lucky too that she is working inbaseball. Highly recommend that article if you

(01:35:53):
have not read it, but Iassume most of you, coming from VP
world are aware of her work.Um. So with that, Jared,
how was your week? It wasa crappy week, not my favorite week
if I'm being honest, Um,but I'm going to go back to the
meats for my best then, um, Ben, play along, don't worn
this if you know the answer here, Ben, what is a sloppy Joe?

(01:36:18):
Sloppy Joe? What are you whatare you picturing? Sloppy Joe is
ground beef cooked in a sauce thatkeeps it from coalescing like a burger would,
but then served on a button likea burger would be served, so
that it falls all over the placewhen you eat it wrong. Ian,

(01:36:39):
would you have agreed with what Bensays a sloppy joe is pretty muchly to
the letter. Yes, yeah,so that's not a sloppy joe. Well,
okay, so that is a sloppyjoe. But if you're in northern
New Jersey, that's not what asloppy joe is. Sloppy joe is a
double decker sandwich on rye bread withusually something on the order three kinds of
deli meats, cole slaw, andRussian dressing. That is a sloppy joe.

(01:37:03):
And I was up in New Jerseythis past weekend and one of the
few good parts of it was eatinga sloppy joe. And I remember the
first time that my grandma tried toconvince me that, you know, this
is what a sloppy joe's is.Like, no, Grandma, like,
I know what a sloppy joe is. It's like hammerger meat and a sauce
sort of thing. It's like,no, this is sloppy jo's what we
call it. And that's what theycall it in um in New Jersey,

(01:37:26):
which is weird, but it's alsosuper delicious. Because Deli is good in
New Jersey in a way that it'snot anywhere else. But my favorite thing
that I saw this week is umI was researching Sloppy Joe's just before this,
and I went to the Wikipeda pagefor Sloppy Joe and then in pren
of the season New Jersey and onthe because it's got its own thing,

(01:37:47):
and the fourth the fourth paragraph onthe page talks about Jewish delis that featured
the Sloppy Joe in the fifties,and one of them is Carpons Deli and
Passaic, which is the restaurant thatmy family used to down on my grandma
side. So it was a pleasantsurprise seeing that up on Wikipedia. Oh,

(01:38:13):
congratulations on making Wikipedia. Um,I hope this podcast is added as
at one day it does say citationneeded on Wikipedia, and I think I
just cited it. So it's incredible. All I like that. What is

(01:38:33):
it like seventeen percent of biographies arewomen, but Sloppy show parentheses New Jersey
paragraphs. Great, well, there'sactually five paragraphs Carpons all right, so
everywhere everyone look at that. Um, okay, anything else from y'all?
All right? Um? Another anothergreat podcast. We'll be back soon.

(01:38:55):
Please send us your questions at scoreSheet at Baseball perspectives dot com. Love
to hear from you if you've madeit this far. Again, God bless
you were doing the Lord's work.But it's so many day baseball starting.
Yeah, and we'll be back nextweek with some baseball news. That's something
looked forward to. I hope youall enjoy opening Day. Until then,

(01:39:16):
on behalf of Ben Murphy and JaredwisI mean Leftwitz. Thanks again and have
a great day.

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