June 13, 2019 • 61 mins
On this episode, TTO is joined by Tom Cunningham to discuss his preferred methods for building teams (hint: prospects!) and gives a ton of great tips for listeners about what to look for as they endeavor to build a champion squad. We touch on the latest MLB draftees (actually talking about the players this time!) and how they compare to prospects already playing pro ball. We wrap, of course, with some stories about the best things we saw this week.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Howdy, Welcome to the Three twoOutcomes podcasts, presented by Baseball Perspectives.
I'm your host, Ian Lefkowitz,and I am joined as always by Ben
Murphy and Jared Wise, who needno introduction despite the fact that I've given
them one for about one hundred episodesin a row. But we are pleased
as punched to have a special guestwith us joining us this week. Tom
(00:23):
Cunningham pros mcmavin. Is it fairto say, I don't know, but
I'm a longtime listener, first firsttime caller, so we have no callers.
Yeah, but we are delighted tohave you on. We met you
(00:43):
throughout a number of leagues and probablymost notably I think in the mock draft
that we are participated in each offseason. So I guess the first off
putting question I like to ask allof our guests are, uh is who
are you and why are you here? Well? So, UM, I
(01:07):
like playing score sheet. UM.I actually started in a league that UM
that I think both Ben and Jaredwere in. UM it was it was
a league I think Keith Woolner hasstarted or something, and I got into
it through UM. I got itinto it through people at work, and
(01:29):
it had a very weird keeper systemwhere, um where it was based off
of years of service. So Ijust started That's how I started getting prospects,
is that it was the keeper systemwas all based off of years of
service. So if you if youyou know, started a pipeline of prospects,
(01:49):
and you could keep more players andyou could have you know, better
or better young players than everyone elsein the league. What was that league
called, tom I think it waslike oh o o l out of our
league or something. Yeah, yeah, oh my gosh, I remember that.
I remember that if only because oflike every experience I've ever had with
(02:10):
Keith Wilner was memorable. But Ithink it's important clarify that wasn't a score
sheet league, right, It waslike um points league that had like a
complicated points formula, I think,Yeah, but I had like a complicated
keeper structure, which sort of,like you were saying, laid the foundation
for that. Yeah. And itwas the only draft that's longer than Murphy
that you know. It was likea twelve hour draft. But uh yeah,
(02:37):
but I started with that, andthen then I started to get into
score sheet I think around the sametime that you guys did and m and
I started drafting prospects, and Istarted drafting them earlier than everyone else in
my leagues. Um and uh yeah, and that's just how I've been building
my teams. So, I mean, I find it's easy if you get
(03:00):
prospects, um, they don't theydon't cross over a lot. Um.
You know, you get their primeyears. Um, you can keep the
ones that you want. You canusually they usually retain some trade value so
you can trade off the ones thatyou don't want. Um. So I
kind of find it's a great strategyto build from. Yeah. And just
(03:23):
to unpack that a little bit,I would say every year, uh,
well, we get questions from listeners, and certainly in the mock draft,
we kind of get this question prettyconsistently, like, um, how many
prospects are too many? And areyou drafting prospects too early? And I
think you are the perfect person toanswer this question. So so I guess
(03:46):
you're tolerance, Like people's tolerance isgoing to be different. But I've in
in it. I've kept about tenprospects, um in my standard score sheet
leaks where um, where you know, they start at thirty five and they
go down to thirty you know,thirty four each prospect, so, um,
you know, I usually try tokeep it around ten because like I
(04:10):
can usually have four of them,you know, coming in to the you
know, coming in in that year, and then maybe three of them the
next year, and then three beingkind of um, you know, lottery
ticket type lower miners, miners guys, but that would be high upside.
Yeah. Yeah, so and like, you know, I guess we've seen
(04:35):
each other's teams for now, andlike my sense from the outside is that
your teams win like thirty games ayear, except when they're winning one hundred
ten games a year. Is thata stair assessment? Yeah, well,
so I started, Yeah, Istarted in a league that you guys are
in, and um, it wasit was like I didn't have the benefit
(04:59):
of of one of the drafts cominginto the league, you know, one
of the just dispersal drafts. Um, and I got. I got.
The team makeup was like absolutely theopposite of what I would have done.
You know. It was really goodpitchers, but really old hitters, and
and and like Adam Jones was likethe best player, you know, best
(05:20):
hitting player on the team. Ithink I can't imagine what it's like to
follow team. Yeah, so let'sbe awful. Yeah so I tore the
whole thing down and and I thinkprobably in the second part of this year
it'll start to get get a lotbetter. But uh but I don't have
a bullpen, so it's not goingto get a lot better till next year.
(05:43):
But uh yeah, yeah, itpretty much works out that way.
I don't like being in the middle. I find that, like eighty games,
winning eighty games a year is kindof the wrong place to be.
Um, I don't know. Yeah, And like I mean, you know,
I think that's the standard question weget, is like should we go
(06:04):
for it or should we bail?And I think what you're saying is like
if you're especially if you're in aleague where you know it's not the dominant
strategy, like you kind of giveyourself permission to rebuild, even if you
have a good team. Yeah,I I you know, it's some some
(06:27):
leagues have, you know. Ithink it's you have to feel out the
league too, Like, you know, the league that we're in has like
a higher tolerance for rebuilders than youknow, a lot of leagues might.
But um, yeah, I don'tI kind of kind of don't think.
Yeah, I definitely think you shouldchoose a lane either you know, rebuild,
(06:48):
you know, and and and getout of that year, or you
know you're competing hard. Tom,you're talking about Dwayne Murphy, right,
Bil Dwayne Murphy. Oh I justtalk on NorCal but yeah, yeah,
yeah, sorry, I just wantedto clarify. Yeah, go ahead,
because because Murphy is um so differentthan nor Cal and other standard leagues.
(07:13):
But yeah, cool, that's whathappens when you're in like seven leagues.
You don't remember all the leagues thatyou're in with everybody, because if I
had, I'd been like, areyou talking about or or? But okay,
I just know Murphy's the one.No, I just know that Murphy's
the one where you own Dragson profile. That's why that's the one. That's
(07:40):
so this was the word. Wewe wanted to keep two middle infielders and
a catcher, and um my coowner and I we decided, oh yeah,
we're gonna go for We're gonna see, you know, we'll find a
young you know, a young middleinfield and a young catcher. And we
chose Danny Jansen, Um curious anduh and Jerks and pro far and it's
(08:05):
this has been a bad decision,so that is ah, yeah, I
mean I liked all of those.Well I liked two of those, and
that has come up snake guys forsure. Yeah. Um yeah. So
you may have heard been on thisvery podcast once or twice proclaiming his favorite
(08:28):
baseball opinion. Um, Jerks andProfile is bad at baseball, which is
looking unfortunately a little likely at thispoint. So unfortunately let me have a
win. I mean, unfortunate forhis family and whatever. Okay, yes,
but great for you. I meanyou deserve it. My mind record
(08:56):
on predicting player performance is worse thanJerks and Profile is batting average. I'll
see myself out. Um, buttop So yeah, I mean Jerkson Profile
aside. And you know there issomething to this right where I think you
are, let's say, not necessarilyclaiming that, um, the prospect strategy
(09:20):
is the only one or that prospectsnever bust. Right. Well, yeah,
no, there's there's totally you know, there's a there's a ton of
ways you could go. But um, I just you know, for me
this I see this as a goodstrategy that I can employ. So yeah,
um, like something that I thinkI have said in the past is
(09:41):
um to quote myself. Uh No, that I think when people talk about
how risky prospects are, sometimes theyfail to evaluate how risky baseball players are.
Yeah, and so that a lotof the concern about like having this
prospect laden strategy. You know,you can also drive to Jose Ramirez in
(10:05):
the first round and right all ofa sudden your mid career superstar is U
preferesque. Yeah. Um, sorelated to that, um, another phrase
you hear a lot about, especiallyamateur or people who are interested in prospects
(10:26):
but may not have a scouting background, is not to scout the stat line.
Um. I don't love the phrasedon't scout the scout stat line.
How do you feel about not scoutingthe style? I like to stout scout
the statine. But like, Ithink there's certain things that you should look
at. Like I think, youknow the three things that I like to
(10:50):
look at our you know, age, um power. Um, Well,
I guess there's four things age power, um, walk rate, and k
rate. So I mean those arethe you know, whenever I look at
a prospect, those are the fourthings you know that I'm pretty much looking
at. You know exclusively. Um, but I actually came up with I
(11:11):
came up with a program that goesthrough and kind of ranks them for me.
Um, there's there's a there's acouple of good ones out there.
There's one on Roster Resource that doesa pretty good job of, um kind
of ranking players you know, onan age basis, but also you know
from you know performance, They havelike a power rankings thing. Um.
(11:35):
But uh, but yeah, Icame up with with with something, you
know, because I couldn't find anythingout there at the time. UM,
So I just did one for myself. And and that's kind of what I
what I go off of. UM. One of the things that like in
score Sheet, we have these supplementaldrafts, and usually the first two or
(11:58):
three you get before you know,a mid season update for prospects is out,
so you kind of have to gooff of chats and you know,
the you know, the stat line. UM. So so like having having
something you know, like going offthe stats and like you know, trying
to figure out for yourself what,uh you know, who's going to be
(12:20):
in that that update. You knowthat I feel I feel like that's helpful
because then you can kind of kindof beat the rush. So right,
if you see that Tyler Freeman isbreaking out in May, right, then
all of a sudden, or WanderFranco, who you were on I think
from birth as far as I recall, I think you guys. You guys
(12:41):
drafted Wander Javier and and and Igot really panicked because I knew I wanted
Wander Franco. And when I sawWander, I was I was really I
got. I got all freaked outuntil I saw the Javier, and I
said, I gotta get gotta getFranco in the next picks. Uh,
(13:03):
well, you know it's that sixtyfeet from stardom right there for us.
Um So, Yeah, Like whenI think of you and some of our
like fellow travelers in the prospect world, I feel like there are a certain
there's a certain breed of prospect thatUM is maybe rated higher on prospect boards
(13:30):
then uh then tend to be ratedin our drafts and our rankings. And
a certain type of player who israted UM much higher in our drafts.
Uh. Related to that, UM, tell me about all hundred kerk so
so um so Ahndre Kirk he's in. I think he's in. UM advanced
(13:52):
a ball now yeah, and he'she's so so I think he's like he
might be like a two hundred andthirty pound five foot eight catcher, but
the guy never strikes out. Helike he he he hits for power,
he has a great walk rate andhe never strikes out. So it's kind
(14:13):
of a guess on you know,whether he stays as a catcher. But
but I feel like there's no goodscouting report out out there yet on him.
Um, I think fan grafts theycomped him to like Chris Farley or
something. But uh, but likeI went on his I went to I
went to search for him on Instagramto see like what a picture of him
(14:35):
look like, and he does notlook like Chris Farley, you know he
he he looks like a baseball playernow so uh yeah, yeah, he
got moved up to Dunedin before Icould watch him, and the Florida State
League is like a black hole onm I LB TV. But yeah,
I cannot wait until he escapes.Um. But yeah, like I feel
(14:58):
like two hundred and thirty pound eightball catcher who never strikes out as like
uh catnip, and then there areplayers like um, not to pick on
anyone, but like I have likeBubba Thompson in mind as like, um,
you know these like tools goofy outfielders. Yeah, they just don't have
really performance behind it yet, rightyeah. Um and I feel like those
(15:24):
players tend to drop precipitously. Notthat they never break out either, but
UM, my sense is that youfeel like that is a profile that kind
of gets overrated, would that beright? I yeah, I don't know
Bubba Thompson in particular, but likeI'm I'm I'm looking more at like the
(15:46):
the youngest player at the level,you know, because that's usually the one
that you know, you know,has the has the upside to become a
star. Um and and that's usuallyall so the player that's not getting get
you know, not getting recognized fullyuntil until they hit you know, double
A or triple A right like,um, you know, I feel like
(16:11):
the patron saints of this were likeMookie Bets and before that, Dustin Pedraya
or not even like Juan Soto oryou know, yeah, or or like
Ronald Ucuna like when he was hewas in I think he was nineteen in
Triple A and you know, everyonea lot of people like. I feel
(16:32):
like I feel like most of thepeople drafting knew that this guy was gonna
be like one of the you know, like top ten in the next year,
but none of the analysts would kindof bite on that, you know,
until you know, until the nextthe next winner. So right,
And with Wonder Franco, for instance, I think, uh, they're a
little more eager to jump on thetrain. But I feel like people are
(16:53):
still sleeping in Wonder Franco that hehas the lowest k rate of any prospect
in above a ball except for NiMagical. According to who is Nick Magical
is like three you know, standarddeviations off. But um no, and
Froco is actually hitting for power,right he's in five six Yeah, so
(17:18):
um yeah. I feel like thatis like your ideal player in some level,
right yeah yeah, someone with agood good walk rate, like no
k rate um and can hit forpower. I feel like that's and is
the youngest player at the league.I feel like that's like a that's a
really good case for someone who's goingto be a star. So all right,
(17:40):
well we're gonna have to uh notto our Kings League team for a
very long time. A good noteto us. Um so um related to
that, Just to be a littlemore specific, I suppose, um,
you know, are there players whoyou have been adding to your teams so
(18:02):
far this year? Um, anyonewho has been jumping out to you that
you feel you've gotten on all yourteams and therefore you don't need to burn
them or you could burn them tothe public. Kirk is the guy that
I've got, I've got on mostof my teams now. But uh,
but I mean I feel like DylanCarlston on in the NL is the one
that you know, that's the guythat's kind of jumping out, you know.
(18:26):
Yeah, and yeah, um,I feel like almost in the last
two to three weeks he has startedpicking up some big prospect heat. Yeah,
and so like Helio Ramos and Nanl too, like he's I think
he's you know, and all theseguys are pretty much young for a level,
(18:48):
you know, and and hitting um, Brennan Davis, he's he's really
low. But uh, I thinkhe's probably out there and like, you
know, almost to all those scoresheetleagues right now. Yeah. Yeah,
I fess he has been even undermy radar because he is a cup and
therefore er but um, yeah,so I guess you are often looking in
(19:17):
like a ball and even rookie leagueand yeah, yeah, well because because
I'm looking for the guys that arekind of like, you know, the
the outliers, and once they getto A plus or double A, you
know, those guys are probably draftedalready. So yeah, um, so
(19:37):
one thing I noticed is that youhaven't mentioned pictures a ton. Yeah.
I hardly ever draft pitchers, wellpitching prospects that is. I mean,
I I'm just kind of playing thepercentages there. Um. You know,
I feel like you can the hitters. You know, you're gonna get some
(20:00):
value out of there out of them, But pictures, it's like, you
know, you don't know what you'regonna get. So yeah, that are
so. You know, obviously yourteam has pictures on it as much as
around. Ben Murphy might hate thestrategy of ever having a picture we can
(20:23):
win games eighteen sixteen. Um,but I feel like you're mischaracterizing my strategy.
It's not that it's not that Idon't want to have pictures, It's
just that I don't want to draftpictures before I've drafted all the hitters.
I agree with that, Yeah,so I guess, right, when do
(20:45):
you agree with that? Is that? Um, where do you find your
pictures? Um? So I forpitching, I kind of go for um.
You know, you're looking for alow walk, high k rate kind
of guys. You know maybe maybelike twenty five, twenty six. I
(21:06):
you know, the twenty two twentythree year old pitchers. You know they're
not past that injury nexus yet.So you know, if if you can
find someone that's got like three hundredinnings already, then that's that's a great
Like like Matt Boyd this year wasI kind of felt like he was a
good bet. But uh, butyeah, I feel like also if if
(21:30):
you can get a staff together thatlike is going to put up, you
don't have to have all aces toget into the playoffs. You can find
put together a staff that's like betweenthree to five and like four to two
just for the starters. You know, you can kind of I don't know
if it's the lem a plan ofscore sheet, but like if you have
a really good offense, then youcan you can get into the playoffs on
(21:52):
on offense and you know, shorthooks. So Tom, I appreciate that now
as a result of you invocating thisperspective, and we'll give my arguments a
little bit more credibility. We alwaysdid. Uh huh yeah, Um no,
I mean our strategy has usually justdraft all the catchers, which we're
(22:17):
I think we're coming off a draftwhere Tom executed that to the letter.
Um. It feels like there's alot of good prospect catchers that are just
you know, popping up like Kirkand this, uh, Sam Huff and
uh and uh and and Ruchman.So yeah, so right, so you
(22:38):
drafted Adlie Rushman because you had thenumber one pick. Another, I mean
another thing that you know is anansolary benefit of this of your strategy is
that you are very likely to getnumber one picks a lot when you were
ducating. Yeah, and having thenumber one pick when you're not competing is
(22:59):
just vastly better than having the numberthree pick when you're not I almost I
almost feel like having the supplemental onepicks is better than having the you know,
the fourteen one. Yeah, Idon't know. Um, I mean
at least this year it was.Yeah, I agree in our Kings League
where we tanked last year, Um, we got Joey Bart and um uh
(23:25):
wander Fronco in July and August,and this year we're gonna get Adelie Rushman.
Sorry, Joey Bart and uh,you know, stay tuned for I'm
not ready to Bart my August numberone pick, but I have somebody in
mind already. Um. And yeah, I mean I think being able to
get the drop on those kinds ofplayers are really what the engine, like
(23:48):
you said, that generates championships downthe line. Yeah. Um, So
yeah, I guess, um,maybe maybe this is a good time to
pivot to the draft a little bit, because, as we've been saying,
you've been uh we were talking aboutoffline that you were watching the draft and
(24:11):
you managed to make it one playerdeep into the draft time around, Um,
which, so, yeah, isthis a one player draft? I
guess would be an interesting place tostart. I don't know what you guys
think, but I think I kindof think, you know, this draft
was like I think there's you know, for for scoresheet supplementals. I think
(24:36):
there's like maybe six or seven guysthat that would should be drafted. Um,
but past that, I don't know, Like I don't I don't see
any I didn't see any pictures thatI would draft on my teams, um,
coming out of the draft this year. But uh, but adle Adlee
and Vaughan and Wit and um andmaybe the center fielder the Corbyn Carroll was
(25:03):
his name, yeah, from theDiamondbacks. Yeah, and and then um
then the guy that Tigers took too, Riley Green. Yeah. Yeah,
those are those are the guys thatyou know, I kind of thought it
might be interesting for score sheet teams, right. So it's so it's interesting
that you say that because you know, I've seen the less and less in
(25:26):
our leagues. But I still feellike you go to public leagues, especially
public continuing leagues, and you seethis where there are owners who will just
take like the next name down thedrafted players list in order, right,
And I feel like a lot ofespecially like the back half of the first
round, gets severely overdrafted year afteryear. Yeah. Um, I mean,
(25:48):
unless you like, maybe someone's seensomething. I don't watch anything.
I don't watch any any college baseball. Um. I watch some minor league
baseball. Um. But um,but I feel like, you know,
in the supplementals, if you cankind of if you can kind of grab
onto guys and you know a plusor a that are moving up, and
(26:12):
you know, those are the guysmaybe in the supplementals that you want to
you want to look at, youknow, because you're also getting a you
know, a closer ETA as well. Right, sometimes it's like the perfect
time to take a prospect, rightwho is already in a system, I
mean, not like a drafted player. And then just um, you know,
(26:33):
because with July you've gotten half thedate already and maybe some UH boards
are refreshing their first round. Onething that I've found, um, you
know, useful just as a likeanchoring exercise. UH. You know,
Fangrass has updated its board this year, and it has done something that I've
(26:53):
wanted to see for a very longtime, which is kind of rank amateurs
and UH drafted prospects side or affiliatedprospects side by side, so that you
know, you can say, like, wait a second, this is a
forty five player and there are fiftieson the board who haven't been drafted in
(27:15):
our league? Like what am Idoing here? Right? Like? The
great the great thing about that islike you can kind of guess where where
Rushman fits in, you know,based on they gave him. Did they
give him a sixty? I thoughtit was a fifty five high, but
I apologize to them if it's nottrue. Yeah, because you know,
(27:37):
it seems like he's kind of likebeing slotted into their top ten like right
away, which you know that itmakes it so much easier to value him
if you know that, you know, you know, pre draft, and
you can kind of if you're ina league where you could get that pick,
you know that you can kind ofguess what you would what you would
(27:59):
give, you know, and thatwould be a lot, you know.
So yeah, and I mean,Jared, I guess you can talk about
the Orioles development process and how rocksolid that has been to date. You
guys are getting very close to Jink'sterritories. I'm glad he pulled it back.
Av Lee Rushman, best oriole Everor best player ever. Yes,
(28:26):
yeah, so you know, Ithink you've talked a little bit about you
know, I think pictures that youwouldn't draft any from this year, you
know. I like, for me, I've kind of like Alcmanoa just because
I can imagine a world where heis a number one starter, but only
(28:47):
in certain leagues, I think,right, you know, and somebody like
Nicolo dlo I would say appeals tome less even though he's a more complete
prospect. Let's say, um,just because you know, I think like
you, I think we look forupside and volatility is kind of a plus
(29:07):
for us some degree. Um,are there any other uh players later in
the draft. So I guess youmentioned Corbyn Carroll as a player drafted later
who kind of did make your board. Yeah, I don't know much like
I'm just going off of rankings basicallybasically, Um, but like from from
(29:30):
the profiles I read, it soundedlike that's kind of like a profile that
would would work in scoresheet, Likea center fielder you know, who can
hit low strikeouts, you know,gets on base, um, good speed,
you know that. That seems likethat's something that could work in scoresheet.
Um, sorry, I agree,it felt like about yeah, um
(29:55):
yeah, yeah, Vaughn Is Ican't really figure out Fawn. Um I
would take him second and an AlI think, um, you know,
just based off you know, kindof gambling that like the bat, would
you know really really play Um?You know yeah, because with I think
(30:18):
you're waiting, you're waiting probably ayear or two more, and you know,
you don't know what you're going toget, you know, in terms
of batting average. You know,you're gonna get some power. And it
sounds like he's gonna stick at shortstop. But you know, maybe in
that time you could find another likethat's you could probably find that profile,
I think, you know, somewherein the minors. But right, you
(30:40):
know, especially with I feel likeLatin American short stops are kind of your
specialty. Uh. And you know, I think a lot of them have
profiles that appeal to you and areprobably much less coveted. Yeah, I
think they're under rank because I feellike, you know, someone coming out
(31:03):
of Latin America, you know,they get some DSL stats, but you
know, I don't think anyone reallyknows how to translate that into into like
miners or or or or what thatwould look like in the majors. So
you're kind of going off of maybeone or two analysts that maybe have seen
them, right. Yeah. Andand also the bonus, which is kind
(31:30):
of like, right, yeah,it's a very strange way of like evaluating
a player based on how much moneyit took to get him on board.
But you know, and and andeven that's kind of like, you know,
like Adrian Ron, don't you know, I think he was paid a
lot, you know, in abonus, but he hasn't done anything,
and um, yeah, we surehad him on a team. But Andrew
(31:56):
Vron is really interesting to me becauseyou know, they're is this like dichotomy
between real life value and scoresheet value, which is probably different than real life
value and fantasy value, which canbe like extremely skewed, but you know,
in scoresheet, I feel like nonelite right right, First baseman is
just not a profile that I lovehaving on our team. And you know,
(32:22):
if that is at all a downsideof Andrew Vaughn, then that's almost
I don't want to say unplayable,but like I kind of feel like,
you know, we're the last coupleof years. So first baseman who can
hit is actually like an under underappreciated asset. Like hum, I guess
(32:45):
there was the year where everyone hitand then that, but like I mean,
coming into this year, there wasa list where like Evan White was
above your Don Alvarez, and likeI just that was one that kind of
I couldn't understand, Like I don'tunderstand, like like you're Don Alvarez coming
through the miners, he was probablyone of the best fifth five or six
(33:07):
hitters, you know in the miners, you know, coming into this year,
and you know Evan White's, youknow, his profile was like he's
a really good fielder at first base, right, and we don't know if
he'll hit. So I kind offeel like the first baseman that can hit
and is going to hit a lotis something that gets undervalued by those lists.
(33:30):
So so your feeling is that,like the difference between a first base
prospect and Andrew Von might be enoughto make him the second best prospect on
the board. Yeah, I think, like, yeah, I could the
way that Andrew Von if he ifhe does turn out, the way that
he's going to hit is going tobe. It seems like it's gonna be
(33:51):
a lot of walks, not alot of strikeouts, and a lot of
power. Yeah, and that's gonnawork great in score sheet. So it
reminds me of like the way Imissed personally on like Chris Bryant because I
thought, like, you know,okay, good college hitter, and I
think the position was kind of aquestion at that point, right, like
(34:12):
maybe he's a little overrated, butgood college hitter and like amazing college hitter
is a pretty past gap. Yeah. Um, and so I'm curious about
you know, so I feel likethe draft is also you mentioned Bobby with
there CJ Abrahms M. Certainly therewere a number of other high school shortstops.
(34:37):
Uh that this seems to be afont of like high school shortstops.
Um do you do you kind ofwait and see on those guys? Yeah?
I any like outside of that,like top five, I feel like
you can wait and see, um, you know, and you can get
a little better feel of what you'rewhat you're getting. You know, if
(34:59):
you kind wait until the last draft, you know, to pick those guys
up, because you'll get you canget some rookie league stats. Maybe even
like if someone gets placed in youknow, low a ball, you can
get some stats there. Um.But it kind of gives you a feel
of you know, where they areand maybe maybe even their ETA because like
(35:20):
if the if if they get upto low a ball, you know that
they're they're moving a little bit fasterthan normal, right, And I guess
that's where you can see a player, you know again, like let's say
Tyler Freeman who is starting to likehit the ball at a level that above
(35:44):
his draft status, let's say,right at a young age. And you
know, so I think you mightbe earlier on some of the second rounders.
Yeah, I used, Yeah,I kind of would wait until when
I I have that sheet that ranksplayers based on minor league minor league results.
(36:07):
So that's kind of what I'm goingoff of for the last last draft.
You know, who pops out andby then it's usually like who is
whoever in the rookie league or inan you know, short season ball is
really hitting, you know, aheadof their age, right, I'm imagining
um like Jaron Duran, who actuallyI think he's not hitting particularly basically ahead
(36:31):
of his age, but like thesekind of pop up guys who are coming
out of the draft and like yousee some scales right away. Yeah,
well Jared Duran, I I didn'treally know what to think until today,
when I think Baseball America put outan updated top one hundred and they had
him as like a seventy hit,a sixty power and a seventy run like
(36:53):
it just like insane stats, youknow, insane scouting grades. So yeah,
I was kind of someone drafted,uh Jared Duran to have me in
the draft that we just did.Yes, yeah, I was. I
was not happy about that one.Yeah, but like, okay, so
if you put a couple seventies likethat'll play. Yeah, and even the
(37:16):
like, you know, the seventyfield is a really good sign for score
Sheet as well, right, evenif in center. I feel like center
field in particular takes a little whileto adjust to the majors just because of
some of the vicissitudes of the wayscore Sheet measures defense. I don't know,
I'm not even sure that he willget to Like that's a that's a
(37:39):
hard outfield to get to center fieldin you know. Yeah, well that's
a hard outfield not to end upon the Royals to be true. Yeah,
but yeah, I definitely see whatyou mean. Like, if he
does play, it'll probably be asa fourth outfield or moving around spotting in
and those kind of players end upwith two point one two two point one
(38:01):
three defense no matter how good theyare. Yeah, And so I mean
that's the thing with center field prospectsis that you're not going to get the
high center field rating right away.So like like Christian Pace, you know,
you know, he's going to geta great center field rating eventually,
so right, I think that's asituation where you just kind of have to
(38:23):
sit and wait a little bit forthe for the rating to come right where
you eat it for a year andthen then you get like a two point
twenty or something like that that youknow is going to blow everyone away.
So right, unless they keep likea Kuonians like you know, sometimes they
it takes a couple of years toboth the center field or to center field
(38:46):
based on political reasons too, Soyou know, I feel like sometimes that
is a little tricky with the prospect. But yeah, like like you said,
if it's if the fielding is there, it'll play at a certain point,
right. Um So, I havemonopolized time. Any any questions from
(39:08):
our team based on what you heardeveryone, Uh, nothing to do with
any sort of real life example thatI can think of, But how do
you stay engaged with one of yourteams that it's in the taking phase and
they're on pace for forty wins orsomething? Heady stay engaged or that great
(39:31):
question? Special team? Um So, I mean, the only way you're
going to get better is through thesupplementals. So you know, usually I
pay more attention to the supplementals inthat league than any other league, you
know, if I'm if I'm rebuilding, those are the those are the ones
I'm kind of focused, you know, more on, you know, who
(39:52):
am I going to get in thesupplemental where they where are they going to
fit it in? And you know, am I going to be able to
keep these players? You know nextyear? So I actually, you know,
for nor Cal, I think Ispent a lot more time trying to
figure out, you know what I'mwhat I'm going to do there than than
any of my other leagues. Yeah, and just to feel this one as
(40:15):
well, Like I have to say, like we have we're in five leagues
this year, and the one teamof ours that is uh, I wouldn't
say tanking. Obviously the players areperforming their harness about their generals commitment to
winning. Uh, tanking, You'resuch a loaded word. Um, but
that team is the one that Icheck immediately too. Like so much of
(40:39):
it is, like like you said, just kind of the anticipation of you
know, okay, we have eightreally volatile potential top end prospects, like
do we keep all of them?You know, how are they going to
do? Isn't that also because youwant to figure out whether you can give
me grief about having the team wingames that we don't want them to win.
(41:00):
Is that just Jared? Because Iknow that's what Jared does. I
don't even have to check the emailfor that King's team. Jared just gives
it away to me. Yeah.Well, and guilty has charged. I
mean, it's funny. I thinkit's do you do you guys find that,
Like you go into the to thescore sheet for that team and like,
how did this team win a game? You know? Yeah? Yeah,
(41:23):
I mean and there's been games thatpicture Triple A one that we were
like this, yeah, there's allkinds of absurdies. That team hasn't won
very many games, and they wereall interesting. Yeah, and then all
of a sudden, like there aremoments where like, uh, for one
of our teams, like we drafteda starting pitcher, and then all of
(41:44):
a sudden, like the team startedwinning games. Because once every five days,
it's like, oh, yeah,because we have a starting pitcher that
helps um, But no, Ifeel like uh, like like you,
I would say, um, beingable to hit on the supplementals is just
a real a real joy, LikeI felt like a you know, the
(42:09):
first supplemental we had. Our firstpick was Trent Thornton, which was good
at the time, and with thelast pick, forty eight pick of the
first round, I took Nikki Lopez, which was like a Tom Cunningham sort
special. Um doesn't have enough power. Wasn't great, but you know,
is playing right at the major leaguelevel may have trade value if a team
(42:34):
has nobody in the short stop.Um. So you know, I think
being able to, like I guess, position your team for the future and
perhaps trade away players who are onlysomewhat valuable is part of the fun.
I suppose YEA, So no,go ahead. I was gonna say that's
(42:57):
sayways nicely with the question that Iwanted to ask Tom, is you know,
we've talked a lot about, youknow, if you decide that you're
going to rebuild, how do youapproach that for this season? But I'd
be curious to hear you talk alittle bit about how that process evolves into
actually contending at some point. Youknow, Ian made a joke earlier that
your teams are sort of either winningthirty games or winning one hundred and ten
(43:20):
games, And we've mostly talked about, you know, which prospects you're looking
for and all that kind of stuff, And I think that's helpful to people.
But I think the trick that thedifferentiator really between the people that party
that strategy and actual contenders is beingable to make that transition and figuring out
the right or at least all ofthe possible feasible ways to do that.
(43:45):
So I'd be here. It curiousto hear you talk about that a little
bit. So I feel like managingthe ETAs on the prospects, you know,
you got it, that's something youreally actably have to do. Like
one of the trades I made thisthis this soft season, Like I traded
Bobichette for Raphael divers Um and thatwas like purposefully to get another bat so
(44:07):
that in twenty twenty I would havesomeone with a lot of you know,
with with experience and who might havemade the jump in twenty nineteen, um,
rather than Bobishett who like maybe youknow he's gonna debut sometime this year,
but you know, I don't know, you know whether he'll be held
down again next year, you know, before the deadline. So um,
(44:32):
I feel I feel like you gottakind of you want everyone to arrive at
kind of around the same time.So so if you have some players you
know that are kind of lagging behind, you might want to maybe think about
trading them for for an asset that'sgonna help you, you know now,
um yeah, and like relays that, like when do you say, Okay,
(44:57):
maybe it's time to cut bait onthis player who is still young for
level, but you know the performancemight not be there yet. I guess
during the protection phase is kind ofwhen you have to feel that out.
Um yeah. And and by thetime that, you know, by the
time protection rolls around, you kindof have a better idea of, um,
(45:21):
you know where the prospect right prospectranks because you've seen all the top
one hundreds. You know, usuallywe have the you know for the mock
draft, we we haven't seen thetop hundreds. You know, we're kind
of guessing there. But um butby the time protection rolls around, you
know, um where the prospect ranks, and you kind of also know sometimes
(45:42):
you know where they're gonna be slottedin the minor league system. So um,
you know, you would know thatthey're going to double A or maybe
triple A. You know, basedon sprint training results. You know,
you could probably guess that. Umso I kind of think cutting bait is
you know, is around the protectionphase, and that that's when I would
try to kind of sell someone,you know, I would try to sell
(46:05):
my you know, the extras aroundthen yeah, yeah, and then try
and I like try not to keepanybody who you could draft with that same
pick that you get up to,yes, which is always tricky because you
know, I feel like if you'reof this bent, which I certainly am,
(46:29):
you know there is sometimes you followup with the prospect or you've been
nursing Sin's eighteen, right, andyou also on the converse of that,
like make sure you protect the guythat you you know, and don't spend
a higher pick than you know youwould have if you like, if you're
in a standard score sheet league andyou can protect a guy at twenty six,
don't you know, don't let himgo and then you know two weeks
(46:52):
later, Um, you know,the depth charts change and you know he's
he's you know, moving up,you know, and you have to draft
him with a twenty two. That'snot that's not a movie you want to
make either, A right. Ihave done that, and I feel too
horrified whatever that happens. Yeah,like oops, um or any other any
(47:15):
other questions I do you want tothat was the main one I want to
ask. Thanks Tom, I thinkthat's helpful. Um yeah, yeah,
darn anything from you. No,okay, I'm good, thank you all
right. UM So we don't ordinarilyask this of guests, but since you
(47:35):
are an act actual listener, whichagain God bless, I'm surprised thatst thing
I saw this week best thing Isaw this week? Yes, I have
one. Okay, so, ummy son and I we uh my nine
year old um his cub scout packum slept over in the outfield of McCoy
Stadium this this uh, this Saturdaynight. Um So it just happened that
(48:00):
Williams Sasadio got sent down to theminers on Friday. Um so I got
to see williams Astadio um um onSaturday night, and and everything off of
his bat was a rocket. He. I don't know why he's in the
miners right now. So maybe becauseeverybody on the Twins is slugging six fifty.
(48:23):
Yeah, but that's amazing. Uh. McCoy Stadium one of the few
not a ton of minor egues namesthat we haven't been to at this point,
and obviously it is going away atthe end of this year. I
think, yeah, that's another reasonthat we wanted to do the sleep over
this year because it's they're moving.So yeah, and we've been to Wester
(48:46):
and I'll sleep in the docket.Take my chance, is there? Sorry
Wester h but no, that soundsamazing and I hope, I hope Williams
Sado was everything you hoped for physically, visually and more. He actually,
(49:07):
um they do. Do you rememberwhen when Randall Simon punched the I think
it was like a president that wasrunning around the track. I believe it
would be one of the racing sausages. Yes, so they had they had
racing eyeballs that was like sponsored bylike some local optometrist. So there was
(49:28):
like a green eyeball, like agreen eyeball, blue eyeball, and a
brown eyeball that were running around thetrack and it was a race and Williams
Astadio came out and punched one ofthe one of the eyeballs. All right.
With that story, we become thenumber one Williams Asadio podcast on the
(49:50):
Internet. That is amazing. Ijust looked up raising eyeballs. Holy count
this is frightening. I have athousand questions right now. Um oh my
god. Uh yeah, no,this is what my nightmare looks like every
night. It's really really disconcerting andgood on. Williams asked, I guess
(50:17):
did he connect. I don't thinkhe did, like a full Randall simon
to the eyeball, but like hedid like the eyeball that he got into
it with definitely lost. Do youthink it is because a giant ball was
coming at him and he couldn't notswing. So so the one other thing
I want to like. I wastelling my son that, like, here's
(50:40):
this guy. This we want toI want to see this guy. Williams
asked the deal because this guy heswings at everything and he never strikes out
and he never walks. So I'min the middle of telling him this and
Williams asked, A deal takes twopitches and at his way, Dad,
(51:01):
You're you're raw the moment your sonlarns about the fallibility of adults. All
right, Uh from the home crowd. Any best things you saw this week?
Man? Yeah? Do you wantme to go next? Sorry?
Yeah, am I the home crowd. I don't even Yeah. So the
(51:27):
Women's World Cup started recently, andum, I know Jared's the residents soccer
buff, but I guess I'm thelocal women's sports advocate or whatever I know.
Um So, there was an interestinggame where the US team scored a
bunch of goals against Thailand. Ibelieve it was uh and was face some
(51:50):
yeah, face face some criticism forthe way that they handled the decision to
score those goals, I guess,and also the way that they celebrated when
they scored those goals. And soI guess I'm just sort of here to
make sure that people that like sports, are especially soccer fans, are tuning
into the Women's World Cup, andalso I guess to advocate for letting them
(52:15):
play and making sure that you sortof check your assumptions about how you evaluate,
you know, celebrations in general,but obviously across different types of people
in terms of their gender or raceor anything like that. And there's one
thing that I read that really resonatedwith me about I think as Alex Morgan
said that, you know, Ithink a lot of the criticism that they
(52:37):
got was that it was a littlebit rude or you know, disrespectful to
run the score up, And shewas saying basically like it would have been
rude to let up on them andnot play the best that they could.
That would have been like, youknow, underestimating or sort of disrespecting the
opponent in a more fundamental way.And I think, at least in terms
of like the athletic endeavors that Iengage anymore, I think that's exactly how
(53:01):
I feel too, And so itwas I think compelling to see Alex Morgan
present that perspective, and I thinkthat's something that carries over into baseball,
obviously with all the unwritten rules hogwash. Probably number two of my best things
would have been the recent Stanley Cupfinal win for the Not Boston team,
(53:23):
But number three would have been theMax Muncy line about Madison Bumgardner going to
get the ball out of the bay. And and I think, like you
know, that Max Muncy masson Bumgarnerthing is a good example of something that
a lot of people have said,where, you know, the picture shouldn't
be getting quite so upset about hittersbeing excited that they hit a home run.
(53:45):
First of all, because the pictureyou know, suffering the you know,
having given up the home run inthe first place. But it's also
a sign of respect from the hitterthat they'd be excited that they hit the
home run off of the guy,So you know, take it as sort
of a compliment that it's worth gettingexcited that he hit a home run off
of you, and you know,do your best to win next time.
(54:06):
Um. You know, I thinkit's like the baseball carry over there,
tinn it back a little bit.Um, yeah, right, I did.
I did appreciate mastert Bumgarner though,taking a stand for like crotchety everywhere.
This is who I am. Letme play by like whining about kids
(54:31):
today. Um yeah, I thinkthe women's team makes sports more fun and
Max Munsey makes baseball more fun.So pro fun Yeah, yeah fun.
Um, Jared, I suspect wemay have a similar best thing we saw
this week, So do you wantto go first? Um? Yeah,
(54:57):
because I don't have much of astory, so maybe you have a story
from it. So the best thingI saw this week was you and also
Austin, Texas, where we weretogether. So the two of us went
to a television festival, which isa thing that cannot be explained. No
matter how hard we try, Ihave failed many times. So I'll just
(55:21):
say it is a festival in Austinwhere a bunch of television is screened.
There are a number of panels.I thought it was really interesting and entertaining.
I would recommend it to anyone whodoes not feel weird and out by
that. And I don't know ifyou have a good story, so I'll
let you end because I don't havea story. I will say the highlight
(55:44):
or the premier show of the festivalwas Veronica Mars, which is a show
that is returning to Hulu, andas mentioned a couple times, it is
something that is it was tremendously importantand formative to me in terms of the
way it made me feel culturally.Um, I think the way in which
(56:04):
it kind of also, I wouldsay opened up space for uh, the
way female ly characters, the waywomen can behave on television, and um,
it was a line that you sharedin from the interview. Oh I
don't yeah that. Um, youknow. The the PG version, which
(56:31):
is the one I will I willuse, is that she didn't have superpowers
the way like Buffy did. Thatshe couldn't um, you know, kill
vampires or she wasn't like a spyand her superpower was that she could have
the confidence to tell men to flipoff. So yeah, I think that
(56:57):
was a real Uh. It wasa real wonder and it was great to
see a bunch of people who wereinspired by that kind of behavior and who
like a good mystery story once ina while. So I was delied by
that. Jared, do you haveany takeaways? I? Yeah, I
have a story. I don't knowif you're gonna like it, though,
so are you sure you can?I would like to add the podcast here.
(57:21):
Um, but first I'll say ifif Williams asked to punch an eyeball,
he probably just cured of a stigmatism. Um. In response to Ben,
Uh, you guys will not besurprised to learn that I am not
winning in my Women's World cup poolat work. And Ben, if you
I'm sure you have already, butif you haven't read about it, like
the labor issue stuff surrounding the women'steam and what they're doing, it's kind
(57:44):
of fascinating, so you should beatup on that. Um. But specifically
yeah, okay, and like whatthey did to get their like licensing rights
back and what they're doing with isit's cool. Yeah, I'll check it
out. Um. So the bestthing that I saw in texts well,
(58:05):
along with the panels that we wentto a lot of there are a lot
of funny people. Those are probablyactually the best thing, but um was
the destruction of one of Ian's closestfriendships over this podcast. What and so
getting me in stopped me at anytime? If you're comfortable with this,
I mean I wasn't before the storystarted. I just let it ride.
(58:29):
Well I think, I mean,there's no details now, so we can
we can stop, but we weUM. We went to Austin with one
of Ian's friends, Um, whoin her mind was a close friend of
Ian. UM, and we werewaiting in line before one of the panels
(58:50):
UM and she remarked on the factthat it seemed like everyone at this festival
had their own podcast except for thethree of us US, at which point
she turned to me because I justmet her a few days ago, and
she's like, well, well,Jared, you do you don't have a
podcast to you? And so Iwas like, well, maybe maybe you
talk with you about this. That'sgreat, and so yeah, I watched
(59:19):
what it seemed to be a deepand meaningful friendship and plode right in front
of me. And yes, thehorrid shame of others is harnessed myself,
which is not very far, youknow it is. I kind of like
a church and state relationship with this, you know, I like having a
baseball world in a real world.And the more they cross over, the
(59:44):
uh, you know, it wasstrange. I don't want to talk about
my real life on here. Soeither you're saying it's your fault that your
friends don't know you have a podcastbecause you don't tell them. Yeah,
yeah, that would be the bigtakeaway. And as already fortified, So
(01:00:05):
do you think she's listening to thisepisode and Jared telling this story right now?
I hope no way. She madeit an hour into the podcast?
Do I have to tell my familynow? All right, Well, we'll
talk about this later. Until then, Tom, I want to thank you
for especially staying for this part,which God knows why. I know who
(01:00:25):
your next guest has to be.Now, okay, that's a fair button.
I appreciate that. Um. Thething is that would probably end up
being an all musical podcast, andI have learned we can't do this well
(01:00:46):
yeah, um but Tom, thankyou so much. It was a delight
having you. Hopefully our listeners foundthe same. Um, and I guess
the best way to follow you isto follow your decision making and then the
mock draft in the off season.Is that fair? Sounds good? Yeah?
(01:01:07):
Okay, so I'll be happy andI'm behalfy Ben Murphy and Jared Wise,
I'm in Leftwitz. Thanks again andhave a great day.
Howdy, Welcome to the Three twoOutcomes podcasts, presented by Baseball Perspectives.
I'm your host, Ian Lefkowitz,and I am joined as always by Ben
Murphy and Jared Wise, who needno introduction despite the fact that I've given
them one for about one hundred episodesin a row. But we are pleased
as punched to have a special guestwith us joining us this week. Tom
(00:23):
Cunningham pros mcmavin. Is it fairto say, I don't know, but
I'm a longtime listener, first firsttime caller, so we have no callers.
Yeah, but we are delighted tohave you on. We met you
(00:43):
throughout a number of leagues and probablymost notably I think in the mock draft
that we are participated in each offseason. So I guess the first off
putting question I like to ask allof our guests are, uh is who
are you and why are you here? Well? So, UM, I
(01:07):
like playing score sheet. UM.I actually started in a league that UM
that I think both Ben and Jaredwere in. UM it was it was
a league I think Keith Woolner hasstarted or something, and I got into
it through UM. I got itinto it through people at work, and
(01:29):
it had a very weird keeper systemwhere, um where it was based off
of years of service. So Ijust started That's how I started getting prospects,
is that it was the keeper systemwas all based off of years of
service. So if you if youyou know, started a pipeline of prospects,
(01:49):
and you could keep more players andyou could have you know, better
or better young players than everyone elsein the league. What was that league
called, tom I think it waslike oh o o l out of our
league or something. Yeah, yeah, oh my gosh, I remember that.
I remember that if only because oflike every experience I've ever had with
(02:10):
Keith Wilner was memorable. But Ithink it's important clarify that wasn't a score
sheet league, right, It waslike um points league that had like a
complicated points formula, I think,Yeah, but I had like a complicated
keeper structure, which sort of,like you were saying, laid the foundation
for that. Yeah. And itwas the only draft that's longer than Murphy
that you know. It was likea twelve hour draft. But uh yeah,
(02:37):
but I started with that, andthen then I started to get into
score sheet I think around the sametime that you guys did and m and
I started drafting prospects, and Istarted drafting them earlier than everyone else in
my leagues. Um and uh yeah, and that's just how I've been building
my teams. So, I mean, I find it's easy if you get
(03:00):
prospects, um, they don't theydon't cross over a lot. Um.
You know, you get their primeyears. Um, you can keep the
ones that you want. You canusually they usually retain some trade value so
you can trade off the ones thatyou don't want. Um. So I
kind of find it's a great strategyto build from. Yeah. And just
(03:23):
to unpack that a little bit,I would say every year, uh,
well, we get questions from listeners, and certainly in the mock draft,
we kind of get this question prettyconsistently, like, um, how many
prospects are too many? And areyou drafting prospects too early? And I
think you are the perfect person toanswer this question. So so I guess
(03:46):
you're tolerance, Like people's tolerance isgoing to be different. But I've in
in it. I've kept about tenprospects, um in my standard score sheet
leaks where um, where you know, they start at thirty five and they
go down to thirty you know,thirty four each prospect, so, um,
you know, I usually try tokeep it around ten because like I
(04:10):
can usually have four of them,you know, coming in to the you
know, coming in in that year, and then maybe three of them the
next year, and then three beingkind of um, you know, lottery
ticket type lower miners, miners guys, but that would be high upside.
Yeah. Yeah, so and like, you know, I guess we've seen
(04:35):
each other's teams for now, andlike my sense from the outside is that
your teams win like thirty games ayear, except when they're winning one hundred
ten games a year. Is thata stair assessment? Yeah, well,
so I started, Yeah, Istarted in a league that you guys are
in, and um, it wasit was like I didn't have the benefit
(04:59):
of of one of the drafts cominginto the league, you know, one
of the just dispersal drafts. Um, and I got. I got.
The team makeup was like absolutely theopposite of what I would have done.
You know. It was really goodpitchers, but really old hitters, and
and and like Adam Jones was likethe best player, you know, best
(05:20):
hitting player on the team. Ithink I can't imagine what it's like to
follow team. Yeah, so let'sbe awful. Yeah so I tore the
whole thing down and and I thinkprobably in the second part of this year
it'll start to get get a lotbetter. But uh but I don't have
a bullpen, so it's not goingto get a lot better till next year.
(05:43):
But uh yeah, yeah, itpretty much works out that way.
I don't like being in the middle. I find that, like eighty games,
winning eighty games a year is kindof the wrong place to be.
Um, I don't know. Yeah, And like I mean, you know,
I think that's the standard question weget, is like should we go
(06:04):
for it or should we bail?And I think what you're saying is like
if you're especially if you're in aleague where you know it's not the dominant
strategy, like you kind of giveyourself permission to rebuild, even if you
have a good team. Yeah,I I you know, it's some some
(06:27):
leagues have, you know. Ithink it's you have to feel out the
league too, Like, you know, the league that we're in has like
a higher tolerance for rebuilders than youknow, a lot of leagues might.
But um, yeah, I don'tI kind of kind of don't think.
Yeah, I definitely think you shouldchoose a lane either you know, rebuild,
(06:48):
you know, and and and getout of that year, or you
know you're competing hard. Tom,you're talking about Dwayne Murphy, right,
Bil Dwayne Murphy. Oh I justtalk on NorCal but yeah, yeah,
yeah, sorry, I just wantedto clarify. Yeah, go ahead,
because because Murphy is um so differentthan nor Cal and other standard leagues.
(07:13):
But yeah, cool, that's whathappens when you're in like seven leagues.
You don't remember all the leagues thatyou're in with everybody, because if I
had, I'd been like, areyou talking about or or? But okay,
I just know Murphy's the one.No, I just know that Murphy's
the one where you own Dragson profile. That's why that's the one. That's
(07:40):
so this was the word. Wewe wanted to keep two middle infielders and
a catcher, and um my coowner and I we decided, oh yeah,
we're gonna go for We're gonna see, you know, we'll find a
young you know, a young middleinfield and a young catcher. And we
chose Danny Jansen, Um curious anduh and Jerks and pro far and it's
(08:05):
this has been a bad decision,so that is ah, yeah, I
mean I liked all of those.Well I liked two of those, and
that has come up snake guys forsure. Yeah. Um yeah. So
you may have heard been on thisvery podcast once or twice proclaiming his favorite
(08:28):
baseball opinion. Um, Jerks andProfile is bad at baseball, which is
looking unfortunately a little likely at thispoint. So unfortunately let me have a
win. I mean, unfortunate forhis family and whatever. Okay, yes,
but great for you. I meanyou deserve it. My mind record
(08:56):
on predicting player performance is worse thanJerks and Profile is batting average. I'll
see myself out. Um, buttop So yeah, I mean Jerkson Profile
aside. And you know there issomething to this right where I think you
are, let's say, not necessarilyclaiming that, um, the prospect strategy
(09:20):
is the only one or that prospectsnever bust. Right. Well, yeah,
no, there's there's totally you know, there's a there's a ton of
ways you could go. But um, I just you know, for me
this I see this as a goodstrategy that I can employ. So yeah,
um, like something that I thinkI have said in the past is
(09:41):
um to quote myself. Uh No, that I think when people talk about
how risky prospects are, sometimes theyfail to evaluate how risky baseball players are.
Yeah, and so that a lotof the concern about like having this
prospect laden strategy. You know,you can also drive to Jose Ramirez in
(10:05):
the first round and right all ofa sudden your mid career superstar is U
preferesque. Yeah. Um, sorelated to that, um, another phrase
you hear a lot about, especiallyamateur or people who are interested in prospects
(10:26):
but may not have a scouting background, is not to scout the stat line.
Um. I don't love the phrasedon't scout the scout stat line.
How do you feel about not scoutingthe style? I like to stout scout
the statine. But like, Ithink there's certain things that you should look
at. Like I think, youknow the three things that I like to
(10:50):
look at our you know, age, um power. Um, Well,
I guess there's four things age power, um, walk rate, and k
rate. So I mean those arethe you know, whenever I look at
a prospect, those are the fourthings you know that I'm pretty much looking
at. You know exclusively. Um, but I actually came up with I
(11:11):
came up with a program that goesthrough and kind of ranks them for me.
Um, there's there's a there's acouple of good ones out there.
There's one on Roster Resource that doesa pretty good job of, um kind
of ranking players you know, onan age basis, but also you know
from you know performance, They havelike a power rankings thing. Um.
(11:35):
But uh, but yeah, Icame up with with with something, you
know, because I couldn't find anythingout there at the time. UM,
So I just did one for myself. And and that's kind of what I
what I go off of. UM. One of the things that like in
score Sheet, we have these supplementaldrafts, and usually the first two or
(11:58):
three you get before you know,a mid season update for prospects is out,
so you kind of have to gooff of chats and you know,
the you know, the stat line. UM. So so like having having
something you know, like going offthe stats and like you know, trying
to figure out for yourself what,uh you know, who's going to be
(12:20):
in that that update. You knowthat I feel I feel like that's helpful
because then you can kind of kindof beat the rush. So right,
if you see that Tyler Freeman isbreaking out in May, right, then
all of a sudden, or WanderFranco, who you were on I think
from birth as far as I recall, I think you guys. You guys
(12:41):
drafted Wander Javier and and and Igot really panicked because I knew I wanted
Wander Franco. And when I sawWander, I was I was really I
got. I got all freaked outuntil I saw the Javier, and I
said, I gotta get gotta getFranco in the next picks. Uh,
(13:03):
well, you know it's that sixtyfeet from stardom right there for us.
Um So, Yeah, Like whenI think of you and some of our
like fellow travelers in the prospect world, I feel like there are a certain
there's a certain breed of prospect thatUM is maybe rated higher on prospect boards
(13:30):
then uh then tend to be ratedin our drafts and our rankings. And
a certain type of player who israted UM much higher in our drafts.
Uh. Related to that, UM, tell me about all hundred kerk so
so um so Ahndre Kirk he's in. I think he's in. UM advanced
(13:52):
a ball now yeah, and he'she's so so I think he's like he
might be like a two hundred andthirty pound five foot eight catcher, but
the guy never strikes out. Helike he he he hits for power,
he has a great walk rate andhe never strikes out. So it's kind
(14:13):
of a guess on you know,whether he stays as a catcher. But
but I feel like there's no goodscouting report out out there yet on him.
Um, I think fan grafts theycomped him to like Chris Farley or
something. But uh, but likeI went on his I went to I
went to search for him on Instagramto see like what a picture of him
(14:35):
look like, and he does notlook like Chris Farley, you know he
he he looks like a baseball playernow so uh yeah, yeah, he
got moved up to Dunedin before Icould watch him, and the Florida State
League is like a black hole onm I LB TV. But yeah,
I cannot wait until he escapes.Um. But yeah, like I feel
(14:58):
like two hundred and thirty pound eightball catcher who never strikes out as like
uh catnip, and then there areplayers like um, not to pick on
anyone, but like I have likeBubba Thompson in mind as like, um,
you know these like tools goofy outfielders. Yeah, they just don't have
really performance behind it yet, rightyeah. Um and I feel like those
(15:24):
players tend to drop precipitously. Notthat they never break out either, but
UM, my sense is that youfeel like that is a profile that kind
of gets overrated, would that beright? I yeah, I don't know
Bubba Thompson in particular, but likeI'm I'm I'm looking more at like the
(15:46):
the youngest player at the level,you know, because that's usually the one
that you know, you know,has the has the upside to become a
star. Um and and that's usuallyall so the player that's not getting get
you know, not getting recognized fullyuntil until they hit you know, double
A or triple A right like,um, you know, I feel like
(16:11):
the patron saints of this were likeMookie Bets and before that, Dustin Pedraya
or not even like Juan Soto oryou know, yeah, or or like
Ronald Ucuna like when he was hewas in I think he was nineteen in
Triple A and you know, everyonea lot of people like. I feel
(16:32):
like I feel like most of thepeople drafting knew that this guy was gonna
be like one of the you know, like top ten in the next year,
but none of the analysts would kindof bite on that, you know,
until you know, until the nextthe next winner. So right,
And with Wonder Franco, for instance, I think, uh, they're a
little more eager to jump on thetrain. But I feel like people are
(16:53):
still sleeping in Wonder Franco that hehas the lowest k rate of any prospect
in above a ball except for NiMagical. According to who is Nick Magical
is like three you know, standarddeviations off. But um no, and
Froco is actually hitting for power,right he's in five six Yeah, so
(17:18):
um yeah. I feel like thatis like your ideal player in some level,
right yeah yeah, someone with agood good walk rate, like no
k rate um and can hit forpower. I feel like that's and is
the youngest player at the league.I feel like that's like a that's a
really good case for someone who's goingto be a star. So all right,
(17:40):
well we're gonna have to uh notto our Kings League team for a
very long time. A good noteto us. Um so um related to
that, Just to be a littlemore specific, I suppose, um,
you know, are there players whoyou have been adding to your teams so
(18:02):
far this year? Um, anyonewho has been jumping out to you that
you feel you've gotten on all yourteams and therefore you don't need to burn
them or you could burn them tothe public. Kirk is the guy that
I've got, I've got on mostof my teams now. But uh,
but I mean I feel like DylanCarlston on in the NL is the one
that you know, that's the guythat's kind of jumping out, you know.
(18:26):
Yeah, and yeah, um,I feel like almost in the last
two to three weeks he has startedpicking up some big prospect heat. Yeah,
and so like Helio Ramos and Nanl too, like he's I think
he's you know, and all theseguys are pretty much young for a level,
(18:48):
you know, and and hitting um, Brennan Davis, he's he's really
low. But uh, I thinkhe's probably out there and like, you
know, almost to all those scoresheetleagues right now. Yeah. Yeah,
I fess he has been even undermy radar because he is a cup and
therefore er but um, yeah,so I guess you are often looking in
(19:17):
like a ball and even rookie leagueand yeah, yeah, well because because
I'm looking for the guys that arekind of like, you know, the
the outliers, and once they getto A plus or double A, you
know, those guys are probably draftedalready. So yeah, um, so
(19:37):
one thing I noticed is that youhaven't mentioned pictures a ton. Yeah.
I hardly ever draft pitchers, wellpitching prospects that is. I mean,
I I'm just kind of playing thepercentages there. Um. You know,
I feel like you can the hitters. You know, you're gonna get some
(20:00):
value out of there out of them, But pictures, it's like, you
know, you don't know what you'regonna get. So yeah, that are
so. You know, obviously yourteam has pictures on it as much as
around. Ben Murphy might hate thestrategy of ever having a picture we can
(20:23):
win games eighteen sixteen. Um,but I feel like you're mischaracterizing my strategy.
It's not that it's not that Idon't want to have pictures, It's
just that I don't want to draftpictures before I've drafted all the hitters.
I agree with that, Yeah,so I guess, right, when do
(20:45):
you agree with that? Is that? Um, where do you find your
pictures? Um? So I forpitching, I kind of go for um.
You know, you're looking for alow walk, high k rate kind
of guys. You know maybe maybelike twenty five, twenty six. I
(21:06):
you know, the twenty two twentythree year old pitchers. You know they're
not past that injury nexus yet.So you know, if if you can
find someone that's got like three hundredinnings already, then that's that's a great
Like like Matt Boyd this year wasI kind of felt like he was a
good bet. But uh, butyeah, I feel like also if if
(21:30):
you can get a staff together thatlike is going to put up, you
don't have to have all aces toget into the playoffs. You can find
put together a staff that's like betweenthree to five and like four to two
just for the starters. You know, you can kind of I don't know
if it's the lem a plan ofscore sheet, but like if you have
a really good offense, then youcan you can get into the playoffs on
(21:52):
on offense and you know, shorthooks. So Tom, I appreciate that now
as a result of you invocating thisperspective, and we'll give my arguments a
little bit more credibility. We alwaysdid. Uh huh yeah, Um no,
I mean our strategy has usually justdraft all the catchers, which we're
(22:17):
I think we're coming off a draftwhere Tom executed that to the letter.
Um. It feels like there's alot of good prospect catchers that are just
you know, popping up like Kirkand this, uh, Sam Huff and
uh and uh and and Ruchman.So yeah, so right, so you
(22:38):
drafted Adlie Rushman because you had thenumber one pick. Another, I mean
another thing that you know is anansolary benefit of this of your strategy is
that you are very likely to getnumber one picks a lot when you were
ducating. Yeah, and having thenumber one pick when you're not competing is
(22:59):
just vastly better than having the numberthree pick when you're not I almost I
almost feel like having the supplemental onepicks is better than having the you know,
the fourteen one. Yeah, Idon't know. Um, I mean
at least this year it was.Yeah, I agree in our Kings League
where we tanked last year, Um, we got Joey Bart and um uh
(23:25):
wander Fronco in July and August,and this year we're gonna get Adelie Rushman.
Sorry, Joey Bart and uh,you know, stay tuned for I'm
not ready to Bart my August numberone pick, but I have somebody in
mind already. Um. And yeah, I mean I think being able to
get the drop on those kinds ofplayers are really what the engine, like
(23:48):
you said, that generates championships downthe line. Yeah. Um, So
yeah, I guess, um,maybe maybe this is a good time to
pivot to the draft a little bit, because, as we've been saying,
you've been uh we were talking aboutoffline that you were watching the draft and
(24:11):
you managed to make it one playerdeep into the draft time around, Um,
which, so, yeah, isthis a one player draft? I
guess would be an interesting place tostart. I don't know what you guys
think, but I think I kindof think, you know, this draft
was like I think there's you know, for for scoresheet supplementals. I think
(24:36):
there's like maybe six or seven guysthat that would should be drafted. Um,
but past that, I don't know, Like I don't I don't see
any I didn't see any pictures thatI would draft on my teams, um,
coming out of the draft this year. But uh, but adle Adlee
and Vaughan and Wit and um andmaybe the center fielder the Corbyn Carroll was
(25:03):
his name, yeah, from theDiamondbacks. Yeah, and and then um
then the guy that Tigers took too, Riley Green. Yeah. Yeah,
those are those are the guys thatyou know, I kind of thought it
might be interesting for score sheet teams, right. So it's so it's interesting
that you say that because you know, I've seen the less and less in
(25:26):
our leagues. But I still feellike you go to public leagues, especially
public continuing leagues, and you seethis where there are owners who will just
take like the next name down thedrafted players list in order, right,
And I feel like a lot ofespecially like the back half of the first
round, gets severely overdrafted year afteryear. Yeah. Um, I mean,
(25:48):
unless you like, maybe someone's seensomething. I don't watch anything.
I don't watch any any college baseball. Um. I watch some minor league
baseball. Um. But um,but I feel like, you know,
in the supplementals, if you cankind of if you can kind of grab
onto guys and you know a plusor a that are moving up, and
(26:12):
you know, those are the guysmaybe in the supplementals that you want to
you want to look at, youknow, because you're also getting a you
know, a closer ETA as well. Right, sometimes it's like the perfect
time to take a prospect, rightwho is already in a system, I
mean, not like a drafted player. And then just um, you know,
(26:33):
because with July you've gotten half thedate already and maybe some UH boards
are refreshing their first round. Onething that I've found, um, you
know, useful just as a likeanchoring exercise. UH. You know,
Fangrass has updated its board this year, and it has done something that I've
(26:53):
wanted to see for a very longtime, which is kind of rank amateurs
and UH drafted prospects side or affiliatedprospects side by side, so that you
know, you can say, like, wait a second, this is a
forty five player and there are fiftieson the board who haven't been drafted in
(27:15):
our league? Like what am Idoing here? Right? Like? The
great the great thing about that islike you can kind of guess where where
Rushman fits in, you know,based on they gave him. Did they
give him a sixty? I thoughtit was a fifty five high, but
I apologize to them if it's nottrue. Yeah, because you know,
(27:37):
it seems like he's kind of likebeing slotted into their top ten like right
away, which you know that itmakes it so much easier to value him
if you know that, you know, you know, pre draft, and
you can kind of if you're ina league where you could get that pick,
you know that you can kind ofguess what you would what you would
(27:59):
give, you know, and thatwould be a lot, you know.
So yeah, and I mean,Jared, I guess you can talk about
the Orioles development process and how rocksolid that has been to date. You
guys are getting very close to Jink'sterritories. I'm glad he pulled it back.
Av Lee Rushman, best oriole Everor best player ever. Yes,
(28:26):
yeah, so you know, Ithink you've talked a little bit about you
know, I think pictures that youwouldn't draft any from this year, you
know. I like, for me, I've kind of like Alcmanoa just because
I can imagine a world where heis a number one starter, but only
(28:47):
in certain leagues, I think,right, you know, and somebody like
Nicolo dlo I would say appeals tome less even though he's a more complete
prospect. Let's say, um,just because you know, I think like
you, I think we look forupside and volatility is kind of a plus
(29:07):
for us some degree. Um,are there any other uh players later in
the draft. So I guess youmentioned Corbyn Carroll as a player drafted later
who kind of did make your board. Yeah, I don't know much like
I'm just going off of rankings basicallybasically, Um, but like from from
(29:30):
the profiles I read, it soundedlike that's kind of like a profile that
would would work in scoresheet, Likea center fielder you know, who can
hit low strikeouts, you know,gets on base, um, good speed,
you know that. That seems likethat's something that could work in scoresheet.
Um, sorry, I agree,it felt like about yeah, um
(29:55):
yeah, yeah, Vaughn Is Ican't really figure out Fawn. Um I
would take him second and an AlI think, um, you know,
just based off you know, kindof gambling that like the bat, would
you know really really play Um?You know yeah, because with I think
(30:18):
you're waiting, you're waiting probably ayear or two more, and you know,
you don't know what you're going toget, you know, in terms
of batting average. You know,you're gonna get some power. And it
sounds like he's gonna stick at shortstop. But you know, maybe in
that time you could find another likethat's you could probably find that profile,
I think, you know, somewherein the minors. But right, you
(30:40):
know, especially with I feel likeLatin American short stops are kind of your
specialty. Uh. And you know, I think a lot of them have
profiles that appeal to you and areprobably much less coveted. Yeah, I
think they're under rank because I feellike, you know, someone coming out
(31:03):
of Latin America, you know,they get some DSL stats, but you
know, I don't think anyone reallyknows how to translate that into into like
miners or or or or what thatwould look like in the majors. So
you're kind of going off of maybeone or two analysts that maybe have seen
them, right. Yeah. Andand also the bonus, which is kind
(31:30):
of like, right, yeah,it's a very strange way of like evaluating
a player based on how much moneyit took to get him on board.
But you know, and and andeven that's kind of like, you know,
like Adrian Ron, don't you know, I think he was paid a
lot, you know, in abonus, but he hasn't done anything,
and um, yeah, we surehad him on a team. But Andrew
(31:56):
Vron is really interesting to me becauseyou know, they're is this like dichotomy
between real life value and scoresheet value, which is probably different than real life
value and fantasy value, which canbe like extremely skewed, but you know,
in scoresheet, I feel like nonelite right right, First baseman is
just not a profile that I lovehaving on our team. And you know,
(32:22):
if that is at all a downsideof Andrew Vaughn, then that's almost
I don't want to say unplayable,but like I kind of feel like,
you know, we're the last coupleof years. So first baseman who can
hit is actually like an under underappreciated asset. Like hum, I guess
(32:45):
there was the year where everyone hitand then that, but like I mean,
coming into this year, there wasa list where like Evan White was
above your Don Alvarez, and likeI just that was one that kind of
I couldn't understand, Like I don'tunderstand, like like you're Don Alvarez coming
through the miners, he was probablyone of the best fifth five or six
(33:07):
hitters, you know in the miners, you know, coming into this year,
and you know Evan White's, youknow, his profile was like he's
a really good fielder at first base, right, and we don't know if
he'll hit. So I kind offeel like the first baseman that can hit
and is going to hit a lotis something that gets undervalued by those lists.
(33:30):
So so your feeling is that,like the difference between a first base
prospect and Andrew Von might be enoughto make him the second best prospect on
the board. Yeah, I think, like, yeah, I could the
way that Andrew Von if he ifhe does turn out, the way that
he's going to hit is going tobe. It seems like it's gonna be
(33:51):
a lot of walks, not alot of strikeouts, and a lot of
power. Yeah, and that's gonnawork great in score sheet. So it
reminds me of like the way Imissed personally on like Chris Bryant because I
thought, like, you know,okay, good college hitter, and I
think the position was kind of aquestion at that point, right, like
(34:12):
maybe he's a little overrated, butgood college hitter and like amazing college hitter
is a pretty past gap. Yeah. Um, and so I'm curious about
you know, so I feel likethe draft is also you mentioned Bobby with
there CJ Abrahms M. Certainly therewere a number of other high school shortstops.
(34:37):
Uh that this seems to be afont of like high school shortstops.
Um do you do you kind ofwait and see on those guys? Yeah?
I any like outside of that,like top five, I feel like
you can wait and see, um, you know, and you can get
a little better feel of what you'rewhat you're getting. You know, if
(34:59):
you kind wait until the last draft, you know, to pick those guys
up, because you'll get you canget some rookie league stats. Maybe even
like if someone gets placed in youknow, low a ball, you can
get some stats there. Um.But it kind of gives you a feel
of you know, where they areand maybe maybe even their ETA because like
(35:20):
if the if if they get upto low a ball, you know that
they're they're moving a little bit fasterthan normal, right, And I guess
that's where you can see a player, you know again, like let's say
Tyler Freeman who is starting to likehit the ball at a level that above
(35:44):
his draft status, let's say,right at a young age. And you
know, so I think you mightbe earlier on some of the second rounders.
Yeah, I used, Yeah,I kind of would wait until when
I I have that sheet that ranksplayers based on minor league minor league results.
(36:07):
So that's kind of what I'm goingoff of for the last last draft.
You know, who pops out andby then it's usually like who is
whoever in the rookie league or inan you know, short season ball is
really hitting, you know, aheadof their age, right, I'm imagining
um like Jaron Duran, who actuallyI think he's not hitting particularly basically ahead
(36:31):
of his age, but like thesekind of pop up guys who are coming
out of the draft and like yousee some scales right away. Yeah,
well Jared Duran, I I didn'treally know what to think until today,
when I think Baseball America put outan updated top one hundred and they had
him as like a seventy hit,a sixty power and a seventy run like
(36:53):
it just like insane stats, youknow, insane scouting grades. So yeah,
I was kind of someone drafted,uh Jared Duran to have me in
the draft that we just did.Yes, yeah, I was. I
was not happy about that one.Yeah, but like, okay, so
if you put a couple seventies likethat'll play. Yeah, and even the
(37:16):
like, you know, the seventyfield is a really good sign for score
Sheet as well, right, evenif in center. I feel like center
field in particular takes a little whileto adjust to the majors just because of
some of the vicissitudes of the wayscore Sheet measures defense. I don't know,
I'm not even sure that he willget to Like that's a that's a
(37:39):
hard outfield to get to center fieldin you know. Yeah, well that's
a hard outfield not to end upon the Royals to be true. Yeah,
but yeah, I definitely see whatyou mean. Like, if he
does play, it'll probably be asa fourth outfield or moving around spotting in
and those kind of players end upwith two point one two two point one
(38:01):
three defense no matter how good theyare. Yeah, And so I mean
that's the thing with center field prospectsis that you're not going to get the
high center field rating right away.So like like Christian Pace, you know,
you know, he's going to geta great center field rating eventually,
so right, I think that's asituation where you just kind of have to
(38:23):
sit and wait a little bit forthe for the rating to come right where
you eat it for a year andthen then you get like a two point
twenty or something like that that youknow is going to blow everyone away.
So right, unless they keep likea Kuonians like you know, sometimes they
it takes a couple of years toboth the center field or to center field
(38:46):
based on political reasons too, Soyou know, I feel like sometimes that
is a little tricky with the prospect. But yeah, like like you said,
if it's if the fielding is there, it'll play at a certain point,
right. Um So, I havemonopolized time. Any any questions from
(39:08):
our team based on what you heardeveryone, Uh, nothing to do with
any sort of real life example thatI can think of, But how do
you stay engaged with one of yourteams that it's in the taking phase and
they're on pace for forty wins orsomething? Heady stay engaged or that great
(39:31):
question? Special team? Um So, I mean, the only way you're
going to get better is through thesupplementals. So you know, usually I
pay more attention to the supplementals inthat league than any other league, you
know, if I'm if I'm rebuilding, those are the those are the ones
I'm kind of focused, you know, more on, you know, who
(39:52):
am I going to get in thesupplemental where they where are they going to
fit it in? And you know, am I going to be able to
keep these players? You know nextyear? So I actually, you know,
for nor Cal, I think Ispent a lot more time trying to
figure out, you know what I'mwhat I'm going to do there than than
any of my other leagues. Yeah, and just to feel this one as
(40:15):
well, Like I have to say, like we have we're in five leagues
this year, and the one teamof ours that is uh, I wouldn't
say tanking. Obviously the players areperforming their harness about their generals commitment to
winning. Uh, tanking, You'resuch a loaded word. Um, but
that team is the one that Icheck immediately too. Like so much of
(40:39):
it is, like like you said, just kind of the anticipation of you
know, okay, we have eightreally volatile potential top end prospects, like
do we keep all of them?You know, how are they going to
do? Isn't that also because youwant to figure out whether you can give
me grief about having the team wingames that we don't want them to win.
(41:00):
Is that just Jared? Because Iknow that's what Jared does. I
don't even have to check the emailfor that King's team. Jared just gives
it away to me. Yeah.Well, and guilty has charged. I
mean, it's funny. I thinkit's do you do you guys find that,
Like you go into the to thescore sheet for that team and like,
how did this team win a game? You know? Yeah? Yeah,
(41:23):
I mean and there's been games thatpicture Triple A one that we were
like this, yeah, there's allkinds of absurdies. That team hasn't won
very many games, and they wereall interesting. Yeah, and then all
of a sudden, like there aremoments where like, uh, for one
of our teams, like we drafteda starting pitcher, and then all of
(41:44):
a sudden, like the team startedwinning games. Because once every five days,
it's like, oh, yeah,because we have a starting pitcher that
helps um, But no, Ifeel like uh, like like you,
I would say, um, beingable to hit on the supplementals is just
a real a real joy, LikeI felt like a you know, the
(42:09):
first supplemental we had. Our firstpick was Trent Thornton, which was good
at the time, and with thelast pick, forty eight pick of the
first round, I took Nikki Lopez, which was like a Tom Cunningham sort
special. Um doesn't have enough power. Wasn't great, but you know,
is playing right at the major leaguelevel may have trade value if a team
(42:34):
has nobody in the short stop.Um. So you know, I think
being able to, like I guess, position your team for the future and
perhaps trade away players who are onlysomewhat valuable is part of the fun.
I suppose YEA, So no,go ahead. I was gonna say that's
(42:57):
sayways nicely with the question that Iwanted to ask Tom, is you know,
we've talked a lot about, youknow, if you decide that you're
going to rebuild, how do youapproach that for this season? But I'd
be curious to hear you talk alittle bit about how that process evolves into
actually contending at some point. Youknow, Ian made a joke earlier that
your teams are sort of either winningthirty games or winning one hundred and ten
(43:20):
games, And we've mostly talked about, you know, which prospects you're looking
for and all that kind of stuff, And I think that's helpful to people.
But I think the trick that thedifferentiator really between the people that party
that strategy and actual contenders is beingable to make that transition and figuring out
the right or at least all ofthe possible feasible ways to do that.
(43:45):
So I'd be here. It curiousto hear you talk about that a little
bit. So I feel like managingthe ETAs on the prospects, you know,
you got it, that's something youreally actably have to do. Like
one of the trades I made thisthis this soft season, Like I traded
Bobichette for Raphael divers Um and thatwas like purposefully to get another bat so
(44:07):
that in twenty twenty I would havesomeone with a lot of you know,
with with experience and who might havemade the jump in twenty nineteen, um,
rather than Bobishett who like maybe youknow he's gonna debut sometime this year,
but you know, I don't know, you know whether he'll be held
down again next year, you know, before the deadline. So um,
(44:32):
I feel I feel like you gottakind of you want everyone to arrive at
kind of around the same time.So so if you have some players you
know that are kind of lagging behind, you might want to maybe think about
trading them for for an asset that'sgonna help you, you know now,
um yeah, and like relays that, like when do you say, Okay,
(44:57):
maybe it's time to cut bait onthis player who is still young for
level, but you know the performancemight not be there yet. I guess
during the protection phase is kind ofwhen you have to feel that out.
Um yeah. And and by thetime that, you know, by the
time protection rolls around, you kindof have a better idea of, um,
(45:21):
you know where the prospect right prospectranks because you've seen all the top
one hundreds. You know, usuallywe have the you know for the mock
draft, we we haven't seen thetop hundreds. You know, we're kind
of guessing there. But um butby the time protection rolls around, you
know, um where the prospect ranks, and you kind of also know sometimes
(45:42):
you know where they're gonna be slottedin the minor league system. So um,
you know, you would know thatthey're going to double A or maybe
triple A. You know, basedon sprint training results. You know,
you could probably guess that. Umso I kind of think cutting bait is
you know, is around the protectionphase, and that that's when I would
try to kind of sell someone,you know, I would try to sell
(46:05):
my you know, the extras aroundthen yeah, yeah, and then try
and I like try not to keepanybody who you could draft with that same
pick that you get up to,yes, which is always tricky because you
know, I feel like if you'reof this bent, which I certainly am,
(46:29):
you know there is sometimes you followup with the prospect or you've been
nursing Sin's eighteen, right, andyou also on the converse of that,
like make sure you protect the guythat you you know, and don't spend
a higher pick than you know youwould have if you like, if you're
in a standard score sheet league andyou can protect a guy at twenty six,
don't you know, don't let himgo and then you know two weeks
(46:52):
later, Um, you know,the depth charts change and you know he's
he's you know, moving up,you know, and you have to draft
him with a twenty two. That'snot that's not a movie you want to
make either, A right. Ihave done that, and I feel too
horrified whatever that happens. Yeah,like oops, um or any other any
(47:15):
other questions I do you want tothat was the main one I want to
ask. Thanks Tom, I thinkthat's helpful. Um yeah, yeah,
darn anything from you. No,okay, I'm good, thank you all
right. UM So we don't ordinarilyask this of guests, but since you
(47:35):
are an act actual listener, whichagain God bless, I'm surprised thatst thing
I saw this week best thing Isaw this week? Yes, I have
one. Okay, so, ummy son and I we uh my nine
year old um his cub scout packum slept over in the outfield of McCoy
Stadium this this uh, this Saturdaynight. Um So it just happened that
(48:00):
Williams Sasadio got sent down to theminers on Friday. Um so I got
to see williams Astadio um um onSaturday night, and and everything off of
his bat was a rocket. He. I don't know why he's in the
miners right now. So maybe becauseeverybody on the Twins is slugging six fifty.
(48:23):
Yeah, but that's amazing. Uh. McCoy Stadium one of the few
not a ton of minor egues namesthat we haven't been to at this point,
and obviously it is going away atthe end of this year. I
think, yeah, that's another reasonthat we wanted to do the sleep over
this year because it's they're moving.So yeah, and we've been to Wester
(48:46):
and I'll sleep in the docket.Take my chance, is there? Sorry
Wester h but no, that soundsamazing and I hope, I hope Williams
Sado was everything you hoped for physically, visually and more. He actually,
(49:07):
um they do. Do you rememberwhen when Randall Simon punched the I think
it was like a president that wasrunning around the track. I believe it
would be one of the racing sausages. Yes, so they had they had
racing eyeballs that was like sponsored bylike some local optometrist. So there was
(49:28):
like a green eyeball, like agreen eyeball, blue eyeball, and a
brown eyeball that were running around thetrack and it was a race and Williams
Astadio came out and punched one ofthe one of the eyeballs. All right.
With that story, we become thenumber one Williams Asadio podcast on the
(49:50):
Internet. That is amazing. Ijust looked up raising eyeballs. Holy count
this is frightening. I have athousand questions right now. Um oh my
god. Uh yeah, no,this is what my nightmare looks like every
night. It's really really disconcerting andgood on. Williams asked, I guess
(50:17):
did he connect. I don't thinkhe did, like a full Randall simon
to the eyeball, but like hedid like the eyeball that he got into
it with definitely lost. Do youthink it is because a giant ball was
coming at him and he couldn't notswing. So so the one other thing
I want to like. I wastelling my son that, like, here's
(50:40):
this guy. This we want toI want to see this guy. Williams
asked the deal because this guy heswings at everything and he never strikes out
and he never walks. So I'min the middle of telling him this and
Williams asked, A deal takes twopitches and at his way, Dad,
(51:01):
You're you're raw the moment your sonlarns about the fallibility of adults. All
right, Uh from the home crowd. Any best things you saw this week?
Man? Yeah? Do you wantme to go next? Sorry?
Yeah, am I the home crowd. I don't even Yeah. So the
(51:27):
Women's World Cup started recently, andum, I know Jared's the residents soccer
buff, but I guess I'm thelocal women's sports advocate or whatever I know.
Um So, there was an interestinggame where the US team scored a
bunch of goals against Thailand. Ibelieve it was uh and was face some
(51:50):
yeah, face face some criticism forthe way that they handled the decision to
score those goals, I guess,and also the way that they celebrated when
they scored those goals. And soI guess I'm just sort of here to
make sure that people that like sports, are especially soccer fans, are tuning
into the Women's World Cup, andalso I guess to advocate for letting them
(52:15):
play and making sure that you sortof check your assumptions about how you evaluate,
you know, celebrations in general,but obviously across different types of people
in terms of their gender or raceor anything like that. And there's one
thing that I read that really resonatedwith me about I think as Alex Morgan
said that, you know, Ithink a lot of the criticism that they
(52:37):
got was that it was a littlebit rude or you know, disrespectful to
run the score up, And shewas saying basically like it would have been
rude to let up on them andnot play the best that they could.
That would have been like, youknow, underestimating or sort of disrespecting the
opponent in a more fundamental way.And I think, at least in terms
of like the athletic endeavors that Iengage anymore, I think that's exactly how
(53:01):
I feel too, And so itwas I think compelling to see Alex Morgan
present that perspective, and I thinkthat's something that carries over into baseball,
obviously with all the unwritten rules hogwash. Probably number two of my best things
would have been the recent Stanley Cupfinal win for the Not Boston team,
(53:23):
But number three would have been theMax Muncy line about Madison Bumgardner going to
get the ball out of the bay. And and I think, like you
know, that Max Muncy masson Bumgarnerthing is a good example of something that
a lot of people have said,where, you know, the picture shouldn't
be getting quite so upset about hittersbeing excited that they hit a home run.
(53:45):
First of all, because the pictureyou know, suffering the you know,
having given up the home run inthe first place. But it's also
a sign of respect from the hitterthat they'd be excited that they hit the
home run off of the guy,So you know, take it as sort
of a compliment that it's worth gettingexcited that he hit a home run off
of you, and you know,do your best to win next time.
(54:06):
Um. You know, I thinkit's like the baseball carry over there,
tinn it back a little bit.Um, yeah, right, I did.
I did appreciate mastert Bumgarner though,taking a stand for like crotchety everywhere.
This is who I am. Letme play by like whining about kids
(54:31):
today. Um yeah, I thinkthe women's team makes sports more fun and
Max Munsey makes baseball more fun.So pro fun Yeah, yeah fun.
Um, Jared, I suspect wemay have a similar best thing we saw
this week, So do you wantto go first? Um? Yeah,
(54:57):
because I don't have much of astory, so maybe you have a story
from it. So the best thingI saw this week was you and also
Austin, Texas, where we weretogether. So the two of us went
to a television festival, which isa thing that cannot be explained. No
matter how hard we try, Ihave failed many times. So I'll just
(55:21):
say it is a festival in Austinwhere a bunch of television is screened.
There are a number of panels.I thought it was really interesting and entertaining.
I would recommend it to anyone whodoes not feel weird and out by
that. And I don't know ifyou have a good story, so I'll
let you end because I don't havea story. I will say the highlight
(55:44):
or the premier show of the festivalwas Veronica Mars, which is a show
that is returning to Hulu, andas mentioned a couple times, it is
something that is it was tremendously importantand formative to me in terms of the
way it made me feel culturally.Um, I think the way in which
(56:04):
it kind of also, I wouldsay opened up space for uh, the
way female ly characters, the waywomen can behave on television, and um,
it was a line that you sharedin from the interview. Oh I
don't yeah that. Um, youknow. The the PG version, which
(56:31):
is the one I will I willuse, is that she didn't have superpowers
the way like Buffy did. Thatshe couldn't um, you know, kill
vampires or she wasn't like a spyand her superpower was that she could have
the confidence to tell men to flipoff. So yeah, I think that
(56:57):
was a real Uh. It wasa real wonder and it was great to
see a bunch of people who wereinspired by that kind of behavior and who
like a good mystery story once ina while. So I was delied by
that. Jared, do you haveany takeaways? I? Yeah, I
have a story. I don't knowif you're gonna like it, though,
so are you sure you can?I would like to add the podcast here.
(57:21):
Um, but first I'll say ifif Williams asked to punch an eyeball,
he probably just cured of a stigmatism. Um. In response to Ben,
Uh, you guys will not besurprised to learn that I am not
winning in my Women's World cup poolat work. And Ben, if you
I'm sure you have already, butif you haven't read about it, like
the labor issue stuff surrounding the women'steam and what they're doing, it's kind
(57:44):
of fascinating, so you should beatup on that. Um. But specifically
yeah, okay, and like whatthey did to get their like licensing rights
back and what they're doing with isit's cool. Yeah, I'll check it
out. Um. So the bestthing that I saw in texts well,
(58:05):
along with the panels that we wentto a lot of there are a lot
of funny people. Those are probablyactually the best thing, but um was
the destruction of one of Ian's closestfriendships over this podcast. What and so
getting me in stopped me at anytime? If you're comfortable with this,
I mean I wasn't before the storystarted. I just let it ride.
(58:29):
Well I think, I mean,there's no details now, so we can
we can stop, but we weUM. We went to Austin with one
of Ian's friends, Um, whoin her mind was a close friend of
Ian. UM, and we werewaiting in line before one of the panels
(58:50):
UM and she remarked on the factthat it seemed like everyone at this festival
had their own podcast except for thethree of us US, at which point
she turned to me because I justmet her a few days ago, and
she's like, well, well,Jared, you do you don't have a
podcast to you? And so Iwas like, well, maybe maybe you
talk with you about this. That'sgreat, and so yeah, I watched
(59:19):
what it seemed to be a deepand meaningful friendship and plode right in front
of me. And yes, thehorrid shame of others is harnessed myself,
which is not very far, youknow it is. I kind of like
a church and state relationship with this, you know, I like having a
baseball world in a real world.And the more they cross over, the
(59:44):
uh, you know, it wasstrange. I don't want to talk about
my real life on here. Soeither you're saying it's your fault that your
friends don't know you have a podcastbecause you don't tell them. Yeah,
yeah, that would be the bigtakeaway. And as already fortified, So
(01:00:05):
do you think she's listening to thisepisode and Jared telling this story right now?
I hope no way. She madeit an hour into the podcast?
Do I have to tell my familynow? All right, Well, we'll
talk about this later. Until then, Tom, I want to thank you
for especially staying for this part,which God knows why. I know who
(01:00:25):
your next guest has to be.Now, okay, that's a fair button.
I appreciate that. Um. Thething is that would probably end up
being an all musical podcast, andI have learned we can't do this well
(01:00:46):
yeah, um but Tom, thankyou so much. It was a delight
having you. Hopefully our listeners foundthe same. Um, and I guess
the best way to follow you isto follow your decision making and then the
mock draft in the off season.Is that fair? Sounds good? Yeah?
(01:01:07):
Okay, so I'll be happy andI'm behalfy Ben Murphy and Jared Wise,
I'm in Leftwitz. Thanks again andhave a great day.
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