Bills vs. Falcons: Evaluating the Biggest Matchups on MNF! | UR - Under Review

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Hello Bills fans. It's unfortunate that we have to meet
on these terms, as unfortunately we all know, the team
suffered its first loss of the season this past Sunday
night at the hands of the New England Patriots, a
team you never want to lose to, never want to
lose a division matchup, but unfortunately we got to walk
away with a sad note, and hopefully we head into
Monday night on a much much more positive note as

(00:31):
the Buffalo Bills head back to Atlanta for the first
time since twenty seventeen to take on the Falcons in
a retro Jersey matchup that I have been very excited
to see since it was announced on the schedule and
since really the summertime when I got more information about
what the Falcons were going to look like, what the
Bills were going to look like, and how this matchup
could potentially pan out. On a rare solo episode of

(00:54):
Under Review, I will be going over all of the
keynotes and matchups that I think are going to make
a difference in this upcoming game. Things to watch out for,
both good and bad for the Buffalo Bills against an
ascending young Falcons team that I think has plenty of
talent and I am really excited to talk about I
appreciate each and every single one of you for joining
me on this week's episode of Under Review. You are

(01:16):
too kind to bear with me as I write it alone.
As you can see by my tagline writing JOEO, and
I have to preface I actually just recorded twenty minutes.
Then my router died, so we're starting this from the
beginning again. So if I look angry, it's because the
router back there made me angry. So hey, we're gonna
still have a good time anyways, and I appreciate each
and everyone a Yeah, Now, without further ado, let's roll

(01:37):
that intro. Let's get to it previous play, we'll go
under Review once again. Everybody, thank you so much for

(02:10):
tuning into this week's episode of Under Review, and whether
you are watching this episode on YouTube, whether you are
listening on our audio platforms, you are greatly appreciated. And again,
I'm really excited to talk about this Falcons matchup. But
before we move forward, we gotta stick you know, you
know it makes me so angry to talk about it

(02:31):
that I'm stuttering, but we got to talk about this
patch Sunday Nights match up against the New England Patriots.
It was not a pleasant evening for Bill's fans. And
it's disappointing because the jerseys, the white jerseys, the white out,
everything that was going into this game was a really
cool vibe and it felt like the fans totally bought
into it. And seeing the sky shouts of the crowd

(02:53):
gecked out in white jerseys and white shirts, it was
really cool. And I thought that it was going to
be a really fun game regardless. I thought it'd be
a game regardless, but it just sucks that it ended
up being that way. But with the Bills making a
myriad of errors and having these miscues both from the
penalty front, with all the holds and tiki tac calls

(03:13):
that you saw from tight shirt hockey lely, and also
from just them generally not executing and whether that was
from Josh Allen being a bit more skittish than they
typically is and feeling the pressure both from the game
itself and that Patriots nasty front and Joe Brady just
getting a little bit away from what makes them so good.
And not to say he's bad or anything like that,
but maybe overthinking it a bit. It was an ugly

(03:36):
game and it led to a team that underperformed far
more than they should have. You saw glimpses of hope
when it came to their offense with some ball movement
through the air on play action passes, the ascension of
Dalton Kincaid, who is phenomenal in this game. You saw hope,
but it wasn't enough to mount a comeback. They tie
the game, but they couldn't win the game. They lose
on a walk off field goal by the Patriots. While

(03:58):
walk offs a stretch, they still had a little bit
of time, but let's be real, it was basically over
and they're four and one and they need to course
correct and this is an opportunity for them to do so.
But I gotta say it will not be an easy game.
As the Buffalo Bills team goes up against the Atlanta Falcons.
This Falcons team is a lot of fun and they're
a young, hungry again a sending team that I think

(04:18):
has plenty of talent and plenty of tricks up their sleeve,
potentially on offensive defense that we are going to cover tonight.
Just to give a little bit of synopsis, I have again,
like I said before, been looking forward to this matchup
for some time. It is one that I just I
just really like the Falcons. Like I can't explain my
reasoning for it. I don't have any ties to you know,

(04:40):
Georgia that area as far as like fit. Well, actually
I have family that lives in Georgia now, but like
growing up, it wasn't that way, you know what I mean,
Like there weren't Falcons fans in my family. So I
think I just always really like the franchise. I think
I just like the logo, I like the uniforms, I
like some of the history, some of the players they've
had in the past, and I've never had any like
ill will towards them, so I've always been like hopeful

(05:01):
that they could be good one day. And when they
had that Mitt Ryan run back in twenty sixteen and
they went up against the Pats in the Super Bowl,
I was all over the Falcons at that time, but
of course didn't go well for them, and they followed
on some dark times in the past few years. And
this Falcons team, I think right now is in that
phase where they're hoping to just see progress, you know,

(05:22):
maybe a wild card in the NFC, maybe even the
NFC South, although it seems like Tampa is starting to
pull away a little bit there. We'll see this is
a Falcons team that I think is poised to make
noise in their own division, pois to make noise in
the conference, and within the next couple of years ideally
stick around as one of the main contenders in the NFC.
We'll have to see if they get there first, but

(05:42):
there are glimpses of it on this current roster and
the current metrics that I pulled up for this game.
So to just draw you a side by side comparison
of how the Falcons match up to the Bills per
next gen stats, We're gonna start with the Falcons offense
and we'll start with total EPA per play, in which
the Falcons tally in twenty second. They are twenty second
in EPA per play at sixteenth in rushing EPA per play. Now,

(06:03):
on the passing front, I think it really just boils
down to Michael Pennix needing to develop as a passer.
If you looked at some of his charts, it seems
like they're very careful what they're calling and funneling a
lot of things outside because maybe he is just not
seeing the middle of the field well enough yet. Although
he had a better game and had a bit more
of a spread out passing chart when he played Carolina,
this is a quarterback that I think just still needs

(06:25):
more time to really mature and to become more comfortable
with reading defenses in the next level. We got to
remember he started midway through last year. He did not
really get full snaps until Kirk Cousins got hurt and
he had to get thrust into the situation. And even
then I saw moments where I thought this kid was
going to be a stud. I am a huge Michael
Pennock junior fan, and I think he is just in

(06:45):
that development process right now and we're just waiting and
seeing for him to fully blossom. And if it's not
fully this year, I think next year there is a
really high likelihood of it. But that's what I've seen
from him. And then again, the rushing offense for the
Atlanta Falcons stemming at sixteenth in the league, I was
a little cut off guard, but then I remembered they're
dealing with some injuries on their offensive line. I think

(07:06):
that is kind of looming a little bit larger when
you talk about some of their runs maybe to the interior,
some of their blocking getting into the second level more consistently.
There are still some really nice pieces on this Falcons
offensive line that we can talk about tonight, but they
are dealing with a couple of key injuries that I
think are going to affect them all throughout the season.
And when you talk about what the Falcons like doing,
it are those outside zone runs with Jean Robinson, who

(07:29):
is as good as anyone else in the league at
just again creating distance, breaking tackles, and gaining acceleration in
those types of runs. So I still think that they
have had success. It just hasn't been consistent enough. And
I think the biggest problem is mainly, you know, forcing
it through the interior enough where they can be comfortable
with running on both sides. They kind of become a
little more one dimensional in the running game. But the
John Robinson is so good that they can make it

(07:51):
work and still be a threat, and they will be
a threat this upcoming matchup. So those are their offensive metrics.
When we talk about their defense, they're currently ninth EPA
per play if in passing defense and EPA per play,
which I love to see for them, not for the Bills,
but I love to see for the Falcons. But then
the rushing defense is a woefull twenty seventh in the

(08:11):
league and EPA per play, So they're definitely struggling to
defend the run right now. I think there was a
few reasons for that, but I would mainly chalk it
up to young pieces on the defensive line, guys that
aren't true fortified run defenders, edge setters, even guys that
are kind of the tweeters like Jalen Walker who had
that lineback edge versatility when he was playing at Georgia,
someone that was really good in both roles, but maybe

(08:33):
in the NFL level is still getting acclimated there. And then,
you know, kind of similar to the Bills, some of
that upfield nature that tends to get them exploited at
times and maybe teams tend to just get by them,
and that can happen, and with a lot of young
pieces on the line, that's to be expected. You got
to remember too, moving on from Grady Jarrett and kind
of rebuilding the interior of their line seems to be

(08:54):
looming a little bit larger for them as well. So
right now they are just simply not a stable run
defense similar to the Bills, I guess in some ways,
and it's looming large for them, and I think it's
something that we will talk about tonight as a potential
matchup to exploit. But how they stack up against the
Bills when we talk about Buffalo's offense post New England
game at a four and one tick, they are second
in total EPA per play, fifth and passing EPA per play,

(09:16):
second in rushing EPA per play. All the metrics are
still very much in their favor. Yes, it was a
bit of an off game, but they did have the
ability to move the ball at several points in that
game for a myriad of reasons. It took several shots
in the foot for them to really get away from
what they've been doing, which was an offense that was
averaging I believe thirty four points per game. It happens,
These off games happen. You know, it's not going to

(09:38):
be perfect every game. They were always bound to have
a game where they scored under thirty. They were always
bound to lose a game. It sucks that it happened
to the Pats, but it is what it is, and
ultimately it could be the best thing for you if
there was enough to learn from and build off of
for the next week. And I think that, you know,
even if they're facing a Falcons team coming off a
bye week, which does worry me a little bit, I
think it's motivated to get back on track right before

(10:01):
the bye week. So I'm looking forward to seeing the
Bills try to do some things differently on offense or
get back to just what made them tick, which again
is just the physical running game, leaning on James Cook
and building off of that, which I think they can do.
When we talk about their defense, they're currently overall in
fifteenth and EPA per play ninth and passing defense and
twenty second in rushing, so it hasn't really been that

(10:24):
much better for them, which is kind of unfortunate. Oh
and I apologize, I actually read the wrong one. I'm
looking at the wrong start. I have a very big
thing of Google notes next in me, so good for me,
I just messed that up. Let's talk about their defense actually,
this time sixteenth and EPA per play eleventh and passing
EPA and twenty first in rushing, So my apologies. Those
are the correct numbers. One flub happens, we move on

(10:48):
to the next. This is a defense still in transition.
They have their faults, and they've been pointed out times
over by people on this network, people in the Bill space.
Two varying degrees of panic. On one hand, you have people
that are kind of self aware of what it is,
and they know that their issues and they are seeing
some flashes of good and some flashes of bad. And
what I think these numbers tell me is this is

(11:09):
simply just an immensely inconsistent defense, which I think is
the right word for them. I don't think the bills
defense is bad. I think the Bill's defense simply hasn't
put it all together yet. You've heard again times over
the concept of marrying your pass rush and your coverage.
You've heard people in our network say it, You've heard
people all over say it. But it is a very
real thing that the Bills are dealing with right now.

(11:31):
As far as a pain point, it's more of a
divorce in past rushing coverage. They just can't seem to
get the two to operate at the same time. Where
when the pass rush hits home, so two does the
coverage and the quarterback has nowhere to go with the ball.
You know, times where coverage lets up, times where the
pass rush can't close, and it just seems like they
haven't all had it at once enough in a game.

(11:51):
And that's why you get these offscript Drake maythrows two,
is right, That's why you get these blown up runs
where ultimately a team hasn't really had to throw on
you because some of the linebackers or some of the
first level of the defense are getting pushed and everything's
dirty and there's just simply no wave of closing a runner.
It's difficult. And I think that that's really why I
would call it an inconsistent unit, because when they win,

(12:15):
it's apparent. I mean the pass rush in the Patriots game,
I would still argue you played a pretty good game.
Walked away with four sacks, generated a ton of pressure,
flush May out of the pocket, and in the times
where they were able to close on May, it was
because that marriage was there. I think that they are
still building on it. I think there are a few reasons.
It could be chemistry, it could be Bobby Babbage and
the death. As Anthony pointed out on his show, Something

(12:37):
I wanted to call out tonight the death of the
safeties and maybe the potential for them to not play
as deeper, maybe for them to move around a little
bit more. There are a few reasons that I think
that marriage hasn't happened, and I hope it fixes itself
during the year. We will have to see, but this
is an opportunity for them to do it with a
Falcons offense that has proven to not be playing at
its ceiling, and I think that's why you're seeing these

(12:57):
metrics for this Bill's defense right now. I want to
move into the specifics of this matchup. We're going to
start with the offense, and we're going to start with
what I think is the in my opinion, biggest matchup,
just because of the game he played last time against
the Pats and who's going up against on the back
end and coverage, and to me, it's Josh Allen versus

(13:19):
the Falcons secondary mainly who I want to point out
Jesse Bates, Xavier Watts at some of the other really
talented players. I know he's questionable right now, but if
Ajterrell is good to go, that is a very good corner.
I'm a huge fan of Billy Bowman. I think Billy
Bowman is a nickel defender slash box safety is an
awesome matchup piece for the Falcons. I think they are
going to use him early and often. He plays with

(13:40):
a lot of explosiveness, a lot of aggression. He closes
in on people with extreme speed, and he makes plays
on the ball in the intermediate parts of the field.
He is a threat. But to me, it's Jesse Bates.
It's these deep safeties, and it's the Falcons disguising of
their coverages. The Falcons diskui is almost as much as
anybody in the NFL. I think they might even disguise
the most in the NFL. And why would you not

(14:02):
when you have the athleticism in your back end of
your defense to be able to range and play from
death or drop back further, or you know you have
these cover three looks where one of your safety's buzzes
down and all of a sudden you're dealing with one
of these talented ranger defenders up close to the line
when you thought you had an intermediate route available to you.
They are going to be a pest for Josh Allen.

(14:23):
Why I note that I think it is the biggest
matchup to watch out for is because Josh Allen is
coming off again a game by his own standards, by
standards Bills fans, by a lot of people, you'd argue
it wasn't his best. He played under the pressure a
bit too much, made some uncharacteristic mistakes or just mistakes
that you've seen in the past that defied something of
an ugly game for Josh Allen, and we don't want

(14:45):
to see that repeat itself. And this is a defense
that is going to try and bait Josh Allen in
the mistakes again. Rotating their safeties at the last minute,
switching from a three to one or vice versa. Being
able to get Josh Allen to make the incorrect read
pre snap and throw into coverage is something that they
are going to try and bait him into a lot
in this game. And it's why I actually expect Alan

(15:06):
to turn the ball over again. Unfortunately, it's not even
so much a knock on him and his inability to process.
But I just think this Falcon secondary is talented enough
to get any quarterback really off their game, even if
it's just for a rep So I am watching out
for that one the most. I think fans should watch
out for it. I have to just laud again the

(15:26):
draft that the Falcons had and taking these safeties back
to back in Watts and Bowman Again. I loved both
of these players in the draft. I saw them as
valuable potential pieces for this bill secondary. I wanted Watts
as this primary safety next to Cole Bishop so badly,
and the Falcons are living my dream and you're seeing
it in action. He is an ascending, talented young player

(15:46):
who I think his best ball is ahead of him
and we haven't even seen what the best version of
him looks like in the NFL. And Jesse Bates is
the best safety in the league. You know. Last year
he was manning a defense that I think just underwhelmed.
They brought in Justin Simmons and there was a lot
of optimism that that would work, but Simmons wasn't the
same player, and you can see now just not the
same anymore. I don't think there's a lot of buzz

(16:07):
for him at the moment. And Jesse Bates still was
one of the best. And when you talk about coverage grades,
which I know people aren't a huge fan of, but
still one of the top graded guys, and just again
a really tremendously talented player that when he was in
Cincinnati gave everyone in his division, everyone in the conference,
including the Bills fits, and is still doing it in
the NFC, and we're going to be seeing him again,

(16:28):
and I think he poses a great threat in the
back end of the coverage for the Falcons against this
Bills offense. So it's going to be on Josh Allen
to just play calm, play poised, and not fall into
any of the traps the safeties are trying to set
for this team, and I think they're going to try
moving on to what I think is the next biggest
matchup for this offense, and it's this offensive line versus

(16:48):
this Falcons pass rush. And I want to cite some
of the pass rush metrics for this Atlanta Falcons defense.
They're first in blitz right, They're seventh in pressure percentage,
but they are twenty ninth in quarterback pressures, they're eighteenth
and sex. They bring heat and they bring pressure. They
haven't been perfect at getting home and I do think

(17:08):
there is something to be said for that being simultaneously
annoying for this Bill's front and maybe a potential mismatch
only because if this front is in a bit of
a slump right now because of the Patriots game, maybe
exploiting them being vulnerable to some physicality, mainly with their
guard play, I think this Falcon's pass rush can generate

(17:30):
some pressure and maybe again when we talk about that
marriage forced Josh and is speeding up a throw that
maybe goes errant, or maybe he reads something too quickly
and ultimately a safety jumps on the ball and we're
talking about a turnover. That's where I think the Falcons
could have success. But I also think this could be
something beneficial to Buffalo because again, seeing that the Falcons
are willing to bring pressure doesn't mean they're going to

(17:51):
hit home. And evidently by the stats, they're kind of
middle of the pack to below average of actually bringing
a quarterback down when they blitz. So I find that
I think it would be beneficial if they do bring
this extra pressure, only because we know Josh Allen can
handle blitzers quite well. This Bill's passing attack I think
does its best work in the ten to fifteen yard range,

(18:13):
and I think if they are sending an extra linebacker
or even someone like Billy Bowman, you know your slot
defender to come in and try to be a pass pressure.
Now all of a sudden, that vacated spot where they
might be hot from is something you could set up
for Dalton Kincaid, It's something you could set up for
Khuil Shakir, It's something you could set up for maybe
even a different tight end if you want to go
with a Dawson Knox and I think if that is

(18:34):
their plan on the Falcons defensive front, to just bring
pressure and bring heat, I think you can exploit that
a little bit and maybe get Josh Allen to get
some quick hitters, take advantage of the vacated space and
scare the Falcons off, or really just show that they
don't have a chance to beat you with all this
extra pressure. I do think that the ball is going
to come out of Josh Allen's hands quickly, just because
again the respect for the secondary, but also if the

(18:56):
Falcons are trying to heat him up, he's not really
going to have the luxury to be able to hold
onto the ball, or he might get fleshed out of
the pocket and try to go off script and make
a play. I expect a lot of that in this game.
As well, but it's why these are my big matchups.
And then going to number three and this one was interesting.
Now I pulled this from Summer Sports, but I wanted
to talk about Dalton Kinkaid versus his Falcons defense. Now,

(19:17):
a point you have seen from the film room, guys,
from people on this network is just how Dalton Kinkaid
has become essentially vital to this Bill's passing attack instructure.
And I agree. I think as someone who was very
concerned about him and said it on this show, I
think he is ascending. I think his role has really
been carved out by maybe one having Jackson Hawes on

(19:39):
this line and being able to help with some of
the blocking responsibility, where when you go into thirteen personnel
you still have Kinkaid able to go offline and be
able to be used as kind of a peer receiver.
But I think him staying healthy in his own personal
development as a player has been great and I think
it's really been a good thing to see for this
Bills offense that really needed him to come through. But Falcons,
at least as far as Rank Presumer Sports, we're six

(20:01):
and defending tight ends this year. As far as EPA
per play for the tight end position. So it's a
unit that does defend the position quite well. And this
is something that the Bills are I think, going to
rely on in the future. And I wonder if Dalton
Kincaid either exploits the matchup and still has success or
if they limit him, And if they limit Dalton and

(20:22):
k what does it look like for the rest of
this Bills offense. I mean, are we talking about all
of a sudden now one of their most reliable options
in man coverage is getting taken out and we now
have to worry about being able to get the ball
out at all. And they're sending pressure and they're rotating
in the back end. That part of it does concern
me a little bit, but I am very interested to

(20:43):
see how much this holds up because I do think
a big thing to remember with the Falcons metrics is
there's one less game of work. And I think that
Dalton Kate is just having a good enough year individually
where it's very tough to man him up with anybody.
You know, you put a dB on him. He's got
the size to be able to win those matchups just
with his body, even if he's not the best blocker,
even if there are times where he gets knocked off

(21:03):
of rout stems. I think this year he's playing with
a lot more power and a lot more confidence, to
a point where if you match him up with really
anyone that isn't just a pure tight end or racer
by trade, then I think he's going to have success.
And I think he will in this game. But it's
something I wanted to note, just considering how good the
Falcons are defending the position and how much the Bills
have seen to rely on Kakaid this year is a

(21:24):
bit of a spark plug for the passing game. I
think that this matchup is something to keep an eye on.
It's something that we will see coming to fruition one
way or the other and ultimately be a potential difference
maker because if Kincaid exploits this Falcons defense, you might
not have to worry as much about the pressure about
the back end coverage because he could be or someone
that goes to the sticks five to ten yards out

(21:44):
and eventually wears a team down to a point where
the explosive start generating. And if this team can protect
well enough for Josh Allen be the most valuable asset
in play action as well, which I think the Bills
are going to try and run this game if they
can prove that they can handle the Falcons pressure on
and earlier parts of the game. Moving on to the defense,
now this is obvious for the Bill's defense. I think

(22:05):
you all know where I'm going with this. I said
it before and I will continue to pair with this
the Bill's rushing defense versus Bejon Robinson. I don't think
anyone watching this game at home would argue that this
isn't the most important thing for the Bills defense in
this game. He's just an all world, elite blue chip

(22:26):
god teer, second coming. Whatever you want to call him,
he is that. He is an unbelievable talent and the
Falcons offense runs through him. And I know the rushing
metrics and the passing metrics for them, and Michael Pennox's
play individually hasn't been the best this year. They haven't
reached their ceiling. But you do not ever sleep on
Robinson at all. He is just good at everything as

(22:50):
a runner. And I don't say that just to gass
him up. I mean, contact balance is there. He's incredibly
hard to bring down, He sheds tackles extremely well. He
hits the open field with incredible accel, and he has
great field visions, so he is able to navigate the
lanes really well. When it comes to his own runs
or gap runs or just after he gets through the
second level. His cutting ability is unmatched. I mean he

(23:12):
literally cuts on a dime and he does it almost
looking like he's face shifting like in Dragon Ball Z.
He is an unbelievable talent, and he's also a very
talented receiving back. And take all those trades, but apply
it to a guy that they can now throw screens,
swing passes to checkdowns over the middle of the field.
He is the biggest matchup piece to watch out four
on this Bills defense. And this Bill's defense had its

(23:36):
best game defending the run against the Patriots. But the
Patriots were not a good rushing offense. They haven't been
all season. They've had a hard time creating lanes for
the runners. The runners turn the ball over. It has
not been a stable group. This is much more of
a test to meet despite what the numbers say, and
Bjon Robinson as a player, you never take lightly. I
expect a lot of stack boxes from the Bills. I

(23:58):
expect a lot of run blitzes. Expect him to try
and get by and penetrate the lanes so that those
outside runs can be mitigated. If they can't do that,
they are going to have a very hard time getting
this Falcons offense off the field, and ultimately, even if
it's not touchdowns, time of possession might suffer. They might
how in the field goals. It's a world you might
have to live in against this Falcons team with a

(24:18):
guy like Dejon Robinson. He is just that good. And
this Bill's defense has not proven for more than just
one game of sample size that they can be a
formidable rushing defense. It has been their achilles heel this year,
and it seems like this is a matchup that is
shaping up to be in the favor of the Falcons
rushing offense. When you talk about Jon Robinson and what
he could potentially do to a Bill's defense, that has

(24:39):
to prove itself, and it's going to be on guys
like Dion Walker and day Kwon Jones and maybe at
Oliver if he returns, which I think he will this week,
to step up and just create enough displacement up front
where they can get through, they can penetrate and ultimately
slow him down in the backfield. But the worst part
of Bejean Robinson is even if you do, he still
can make plays happen. You know, we're spoiled to watch
James Cook hit in the backfield and somehow be able

(25:01):
to create positives despite getting met. Think of that ability
and like multiply it by two and you get Bjon Robinson.
He is just an immensely talented running back. He is
so hard to bring down. He is the focal point.
So he is my biggest matchup in this game. I
cannot say enough good things about him. And one interesting
thing I wanted to note so there was a chart
that I saw on Twitter, and I am actually blanking

(25:23):
on the author of this chart's name, and I apologize.
I'll leave it in the comments after I record this
because I want to give shout out to what I
think is a very interesting body of work. But it's
essentially charting the rushing defenses based off gaps around the league,
and for the Buffalo Bills, I noticed that off this chart,
some of the areas where they struggle are in the
left Sea gap, the left ay gap, and the right

(25:44):
b gap particularly, So I don't know how much the
state of transmits around the league. I don't know how
much the Falcons know about where the weak spots are,
but I'm sure they watch enough tape to see that
there are some inexperienced members of this interior defensive line
as well as games pass without at Oliver. But even
at coming back maybe not being one hundred percent right away,

(26:04):
I do expect the Falcons to try and bring a
lot of runs on the interior now, even with the
injuries they're facing, which I think has hindered them a
little bit. I would just see Atlanta trying to challenge
them up front first and seeing if they can get
away with anything there, and if the Bills fortify and
hold it down, maybe it funnels them to being a
one dimensional outside running rushing attack and we'll just have

(26:26):
to see. But that's just something I wanted to note
here because I was very interested in that stat and
I'm wondering if Atlanta tries to hit those spots particularly,
and even if they don't, still a tall order. So
it's something that I think we just got to watch
out for. Again, it's the most predictable thing ever, But
it's Bjon Robinson. You cannot talk about the Falcons without
talking about him. You cannot talk about what they can
do on offense without talking about him. He's an unbelievable player.

(26:48):
I have to give flowers to good players. I know
it's a Bill show, but these guys got guys that
get paid to and he's just someone that is so
fun to watch weekend and week out. You haven't gotten
a chance to watch him. You gotta start. Dude is
the class of running backs in this league. He's awesome.
Moving on to by other points on defense, I want
to talk about the pressure now. The Bill's defensive line

(27:10):
so far has been relatively successful. Cited them at twelfth
and quarterback pressure percentage sixteenth and blitz percentage, but they're
currently ninth in the league in sacks, so they're not
entirely a pressure dependent team. You know, Sean McDermott defense,
when he took over, we saw a little bit more pressure,
but really they're are a team that wants to win
with their four man rush and just manipulate the pre

(27:30):
to post snap book. You know, they could send five,
maybe even six to the line, but then they can
only rush four and drop the others into coverage. And
then what they want to do is later that with okay,
we might have linebackers come up to the front, which
one of them is shooting the gap, which one of
them is dropping back. I think this is a wrinkle
that they're going to do even more once they get
guys like Michael Hoyt and Larry Ogan Jobi Back because
of Michael Hoyt's linebacker versatility and his ability to kind

(27:52):
of go all over the line and many many gaps
and really double up with a linebacker and create this
odd look where you really cannot tell who is coming
down to rush and who was going into coverage. I
think the Buffalo Bills just try to manipulate you and
guess to get you to guess wrong. And in the
case of Michael Pennox, who I talked about earlier, kind
of finding himself in this league a little bit and
hasn't really can't come into his own has had some flashes,

(28:15):
but it hasn't been consistent enough. I think this is
an area for the Bills defense to exploit. Is really
just challenging this Falcon's front, challenging Michael Pennox, showing him
some very exotic looks pre to post snap and then
just making him have to win against those looks, making
him have to stand tall against pressure. I feel that
this Bill's pass rush has struggled against you know, players

(28:37):
that can go off script. I do think Michael Pennix
has the ability to get out of the pocket and
create with his legs. I don't think he has the
same ability as some of the quarterbacks they've seen in
the past, and I do think they might have an
easier time containing him here. But really it boils down
to if they can create pressure with again mixing those
simulated pressures, those creeper pressures, and their actual true pressure.

(28:58):
In this game, I think think they will have success.
I think they will be able to mitigate this Falcons
passing attack and ultimately put themselves in a better position
when you get back on offense and you have the
opportunity to run the ball. One thing I want to
note real fast, I didn't mention on offense, but it
was pretty obvious Bill's rushing attack versus this Falcons defense. Again,
this Falcons defense is struggling as they are currently sitting

(29:19):
at twenty seventh and rushing epa per play I expect
a big game from James Cook. I expect them to
rely on their rushing attack heavy in this game to
kind of right the wrongs of last week and go
from a New England game where it felt like it
was a bit mismanaged to We're going to run this
ball down your throat. We're going to make you stop it,
and if you can't, then we're just going to build
off of that and keep ourselves away from getting into

(29:40):
trouble with your secondary and your pass rush, because ultimately
we've been able to push the ball down on you
over and over outside, inside, and here we are, and
it's a way to take control. So if you could
do that on offense, but then marry it with create
pressure on defense. Again, with some of the stats I cited,
with some of the inexperienced penix has, I think what
you could get as a recipe for success with the
Bills can take command of this game, and we will

(30:01):
have to see if it hits early on. The good
news again is the return of Ed Oliver potentially, and honestly,
even if not, I still think they can do it.
You know, I'm not expecting them to win every rep.
I'm expecting the Falcons to get their punches in the
running game with Bijon, but guys like Bosa Walker, Da
Kwon Jones, Greg Russo, who I think had his best
game of the season against the Patriots. I think they're

(30:23):
capable of creating enough pass rush juice on these true
passing downs that they will find themselves in to just
get pressure on Pennicks, force them to make mistakes, or
to just bring them down. Aj Apeneza has ascended into
one of the better pass rushers in the NFL in
terms of PRP. It's been really nice to see. I
don't think it's a fluke. I think he's just been
having a really nice year individually, and I expect another

(30:43):
good day from him too. So if the Bills could
take control with their rushing attack, I think in turn
their pass rush and putting pressure on Pennix to throw
the ball more is going to pull right into their hand,
and I think that is the opportunity for them to
really control this game. So look forward to that. And
then just one final note on the defense, and it's
obvious as well, but you got to mention the other
guys in the skill group. Now, Darnell Mooney might not play.

(31:06):
Jerry's a little bit out. I know he was day
to day. He didn't practice today. It was a chance
he practices tomorrow. We'll see, not one hundred percent sure
if he'll play, and not one hundred percent sure if
he'll be one hundred percent when he plays. But even
without him, gotta talk about guys like Kyle Pitts, and
of course you gotta talk about Drake London. Drake London
I would argue as a top ten receiver in the NFL.
I think he is a tremendous player. I think he

(31:28):
is one of those true physical guys that can win
at the catch point extremely well, but has some route
running prowess and create separation, especially across the field. A
really fun player to watch, with really good hands most
of the time, and a great red zone threat. For
the Falcons, they're gonna have their hands full and with
these corners, I mean again inconsistency and back end coverage.
They need to be alert. But in those man coverage situations,

(31:49):
if Pennix goes to Drake London, they gotta be better,
you know they got They gotta be consistent in covering
and staying attached at the hip and not letting these
plays this is a pass rush thing, not letting these
plays go off script where Drake London can break open
even in good coverage like Stefan Diggs was able to do.
It's got to be sounder, tighter coverage, and a guy
like Drake London can beat you if you give him time,

(32:10):
if you put up against someone that might have a
smaller frame, he is the guy that you have to
focus on taking out of this passing attack. And with
Kyle Pitts, Kyle Pitts might not be the most imposing
blocking tight end, but the receiving chops are still there
for him. It is another player that I think Tarren
Johnson and guys that are going to manage the intermediate
parts of the field, maybe Shaq Thompson, maybe it' Terrell Bernard.
They got to eliminate those intermediate routes that go to

(32:32):
Kyle Pitts and make him a one dimensional player. But again,
if you can do that, I think you're going to
have a lot of success in this game. I think
the path to a true controlling victory is both in
this Bill's rushing attack, but really in their passing defense.
Just eliminating those threats, and I think it's not an
outlandish thing to say that it's realistic. It's a good
Falcons team. It's a team that I think is poised

(32:54):
to take a leap, but I think right now, in
the midst of them still finding themselves and you know,
being off for the week, maybe shaking off some of
the rust in this game, you know, primetime game at home.
It's not a great advance. It's definitely not a great
situation to go into if you're Buffalo coming off a loss.
But I do think there's some exploiting factors that lend
themselves well to the Bills, including just the pressure on

(33:16):
Penis to kind of figure it out this year, and
again the inexperience he has, and how much that matters
when you're talking about trying to maintain offensive consistency, especially
if there is a defense in front of you that's
selling out to stop your rushing attack and you're ending
up in third and long more often than not, or
there's a blown up play where you're behind the sticks
so much that you have to over compensate with downfield passing.

(33:37):
I think this is going to be a really good
test for the Bills. Third down defense, which did improve
in the Patriots game as well, and I think you
walk away from this game as the Bill's defense with
some positives. Another twenty three point performance even kind of
reminiscent of what the Pats game was. I feel really
good about that. I think they would feel really good
about that. But what I really think happens here is

(33:58):
both rushing attacks are just going to try and tag
each other and you might get a more low scoring affair.
So I would expect it to not be a total
shootout as much as it seems like the weaknesses for
both of these defenses are in the same location and
it's just a matter of who can withstand who and
who can break first, and hopefully the Bills can withstand
whatever the Falcons are bringing at them. I'm looking forward

(34:18):
to it, and I just want to talk about one
more thing before I sign off for the evening special teams.
It got a little like NC bit tiny bit better
this past week from Buffalo, at least in kick coverage,
not in the return game. The return game was a
bit sloppy. There was a lot of discourse about Curtis
Samuel at the end of the game. I just don't

(34:39):
think the return game took that much of a leap
as much as I don't think it took a substantial
step back, but it did take a slight one. I
would expect Brandon Condrington to come back in this game
and to be their returner. I just think they need
the juice there. I think it's someone that, given the
way this offense wants to win, they need better field
position on their drives to start. They need someone that
is an actual threat as a return I think Codrington

(35:01):
is the best man for the job right now, and
I just want to see him. I want to see
them stop that revolving door of that role and just
stick with one guy and just let it let it ride,
you know. For punt return, I don't really have a
favorite right now. It's it's kind of one of those
situations where it's been very murky and inconsistent. So I
really just want to see the return unit get better.

(35:22):
But I think the kick coverage unit improved tremendously this
past week, and I think they can carry that momentum
against Atlanta, who is currently twenty seventh in overall DVOA.
So it's another matchup where you have a bill special
teams that well, it hasn't been great. It's going up
against the worst unit it needs to play like it
is marginally or hopefully much better than what the Falcons
DVOWAY or the Falcon Special teams on DVOA presents. And

(35:46):
that's just the only note I wanted to mention there.
And that's really everything I got for this matchup. Again,
solo episode for me, I don't got a guess, so
these can actually go by a little bit faster. And
it's weird to be alone again after doing a six
hour stream once and realizing I never want to be
by myself on camera for six hours ever again. But
you know, this week was a bit of an exception.

(36:07):
It was a crazy week and just things got away
from me. So I wanted to just put something together
that was more of a conventional preview. I'm not going
to be here next week. I will be away, so
I wanted to get something out before I am gone.
But really just to summarize everything here on this matchup.
This is not a Falcons team you should sleep on.
There's plenty of talent there, and despite the exploiting parts

(36:27):
that I think the Bills have on offensive defense, they're
a team that can give you problems and can give
them problems again. If the Bills do decide to throw
the ball a bit in this matchup, that Falcon secondary
is going to mix things around, rotating diskuis coverages. Accordingly,
they're gonna play a lot of Cover three. They're gonna
play a lot of two deep safeties, They're gonna play
a lot of man coverage. I think that this Bills

(36:49):
team is going to have their hands full if they
try a true dropback game. The good news is I
don't think they're going to. I think they're going to
try and run the ball. I think they know the
front they're up against is a bit inexperienced, able to
be pushed around. I think this offensive line is due
for a bounce back game in rush support. And I
think that James Cook is just individually become the second

(37:14):
most important player in this offense from a skill group perspective,
and I think that he actually no first in skill group,
second in general. Excuse men, And I think that you know,
as someone who doubted this ascension in the past, I'm
so happy to see it. And I think this is
a great opportunity for him to put up another hundred
yard game and really take advantage of a team that's
trying to find itself on the rushing defense side, and

(37:35):
for the Falcons from an offense standpoint, like, I can't
again say enough positive things about Jean Robinson, and I
expect him to get involved early and often it's on
the Bills to shut him down. But the good news
on that front is if they can, I think they
have a really good chance to take control of this
game and put this Falcons team in a bit of
a buying again just from Penix not really finding himself

(37:56):
fully and hopefully not this week, but anything can happen.
I think it's going to be an exciting game. I've
been looking forward to this for a long time. I
love the matchup combination. I'm a big fan of what
Atlanta's building down there, and I love NFC matchups with
teams you don't really get to see often playing in
a place you haven't seen them play in a long time.
It's cool, it's good, it's good ball, and it's something
I am very excited for. So on that note, friends,

(38:19):
that's all I got for you. Thank you for barring
with me on a solo episode of Under Review pre
recorded tonight, I'm very happy to report that, as of
thirty eight minutes and twenty five seconds into this record,
the Wi Fi did not short out on me. That's
pretty damn cool, and hopefully it doesn't short out in
the outro of this video. Because all I am going
to say now is as much as I appreciate you,

(38:40):
I would also love for you to check out the
description of this video and look for the one pass here.
The one pass is the lifeblood of our network. It
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(39:02):
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(39:23):
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(39:44):
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It's weird to not have anyone to bounce off of,

(40:06):
just the voice echoing off the walls. I think I
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(40:27):
your support. So we appreciate the heck out of you, guys.
I appreciate everyone for tuning into this week's episode of
Under Review. I hope you all enjoy Monday night's game.
I hope the Buffalo Bills walk away with their fifth
win of the season ahead of the bye, and we
have some good things to talk about in a couple
of weeks, but for tonight, I will say so long,
see you in a few weeks, and as always, friends,
go Bill's see us soon.

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