Bills Week 5 Preview: Another Divisional Test vs. An Improved Patriots Team | UR - Under Review

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Citizens of Earth, lend me your ears.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
Another week has passed us by, and another Buffalo Bill's
win has come along with it, a win that I
finally got to see in person. Yes, friends, it took
six tries, but I finally was able to watch the
Buffalo Bills win in person. After five agonizingly painful defeats,
I stand victorious. It's just as much a win for

(00:31):
me as it is for all of you. But that
win has happened, and we are going to briefly recap that,
but more so talk about this upcoming Sunday's very intense,
very exciting and really potentially very impactful.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
Divisional matchup with the New England Patriots.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
Will go over offense, defense, and special teams and point
out the biggest stats and matchups that we are looking
out for in this upcoming game. I'm excited. My guest
tonight is excited. I hope you are all excited, and
I want to thank each and every single one of
you for tuning in to this week's episode of Under Review.
And without further ado, I will stop talking and I'll

(01:08):
let that intro play. Let's go previous play, We'll go
Under Review, and a happy Friday, evening to each and

(01:43):
every single one of you, and thank you so much
again for tuning in to this week's episode of Under Review.
Whether you are watching live on YouTube, Facebook, Exports, Twitch, Twitch,
the other one. Sorry almost at Twitter for some reason,
probably because it used to be Twitter, Whether are you
watching us live or whether you are listening to us
on your audio platforms, I appreciate the heck out of you.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Again.

Speaker 2 (02:07):
The show has not been going live very often lately,
but this was an exception. Decide to do Friday this
week may or may not have everything to do with
both work schedule and maybe some playoff games, but that's
besides the point. We won't talk about baseball right now,
Go Yankees. We're going to talk about football, and we're
going to talk about the Buffalo Bills. Yes, friends, another

(02:27):
victory for the team this past Sundays. They took down
the Saints to the tune of thirty one to nineteen,
one of your trademark Buffalo Bills ugly wins where they
still win by double digits, Yet it didn't feel as
comfortable as it may have looked on the scoreboard. One
of those games where if you were not watching and
you were an out of town fan and happen to
see the score, you'd be like, oh, they're cruising. But meanwhile,

(02:50):
all of us were probably pulling our hair out at
several points in that game. Well, they still got the win.
They finished September perfectly, and we move on to another
big game against the New England Page. And when I
say we, I never just mean me, folks. I always
have a guest on the show, and really by always,
I mean like ninety five percent of the time. And
you see the hat I'm wearing, Well, I got this

(03:10):
at the Bill's Store. I could not be at the
Bill's Store if it wasn't for my guest tonight, who
was generously able to provide me well provide I reached
out to him about it tickets for this past Sunday's game.
He is the reason that I was able to see
my first ever Bill's win in person. And that man
is the one and only mister Adam Penzo. Adam, you
have not been on the show in a while. We've

(03:31):
tried to make it work. We finally got it tonight,
and I appreciate the heck out of you for lending
me your time on a Friday night. Thank you again
for everything. How are you doing tonight, my friend? How's everything?

Speaker 3 (03:42):
I'm great, I'm great. Thanks for having me, Joe. I'm
glad that you had a good time. I was really
happy to you know, it's this is my first season
with with season tickets. My my wife and I have
been on the wait list for you know, a long time.
And uh, and I was. I was surprised even that
we were that we got the call or the email
for this season. And and so, you know, anytime that
it can help out somebody that we know get to

(04:04):
the game, that's what we like to do. And it's
even more special that you get to finally how many
years had had it been like, you know, five games,
but how many years?

Speaker 1 (04:13):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (04:13):
So, I mean this is a loaded question. I am
not from Buffalo, as I've said on Twitter. I grew
up in Poughkeepsie, so I with six hours away from Buffalo.
But I became a Bills fan later in life when
I first started going to games. My very first game
ever was in twenty fifteen Bill's Giants with my father,
who was a Giants fan.

Speaker 1 (04:33):
I come from a family of Giants fans. Please do
not yell at me.

Speaker 2 (04:36):
I from that game I went to after that, the
Patriots game that same year in Jullette. A few years
had passed. I went to the Jets game and met life.
In twenty seventeen, A few years had passed. I went
to the Colts game in twenty twenty one. A year
had passed, and I went to the Jets game in
twenty twenty two. I had been to five games. They

(04:58):
lost every single one of the but the caveat to
each loss was something cool happened in every single one
that I at least hung my hat on a little bit.
In the case of the Giants game, it was like
Mario Williams suplexing. I think it was for Shan Jennings.
The Patriot game, I saw I wasn't far away from
where Brady was, so I saw him slam his helmet
and yell at his O line.

Speaker 1 (05:16):
That was fun. For the Colts game, it was a
score of Gami. The Jets game.

Speaker 2 (05:21):
Besides the point, I'm coping so hard and I'm getting
off track. So this was the sixth try and that
first half at him, I'm not going to lie to you.
I was like, there is no fricking way they're going
to do this. Again while I'm here, they can't. It's impossible.
I want to thank Cole Bishop for making that pick
because once I saw that, I was like, I think
we might have this in the bag, but I'm not sure.

(05:42):
I dude, it took a long time to get here.
It took a long time to get to this conversation.
I am so grateful for you, and I'm grateful for
the Bills for finally not letting me down in a
game in person.

Speaker 1 (05:53):
So yes, that is the backstory.

Speaker 3 (05:55):
I feel like every game you listed off, I felt
like I got just got hit with an addition brick
in the face, Like especially that indie game, like oh
my god, You're like, okay, maybe this will finally be
the time I see went in and said you get
one of the worst performances in the Sean McDermott era
of the Buffalo Bills.

Speaker 1 (06:12):
Parson wentz oh man, dude.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
And the thing about it was like, going into that game,
I was so hopeful because they just came off that
big win against the Jets, and I was like, okay, cool,
like this.

Speaker 1 (06:23):
Team's cruising now.

Speaker 2 (06:24):
The passing offense looked great, and just Jonathan Taylor two
hundred yards like again, the only highlight of that game
was it was a score of Gomi, so I could
say I was at a score of Gommi game, which
is probably like really difficult to pull off. But again,
it was a birthday gift. I'm still thankful to my
wonderful girlfriend.

Speaker 1 (06:40):
For getting me that gift. The game was less than
I do and it was also raining.

Speaker 2 (06:44):
And the final thing I'll say about this, Adam was
I actually posted about this and Reddit like a couple
of years ago saying, hey, guys, this was after the
Jets loss. I'm own five, I don't know what to
do anymore. And someone who this was maybe they're watching
this show. But the reply was simply, I think you
should see a priest and I was like, you know what,
maybe I need to so shout out to all of you,

(07:06):
but again, thank you.

Speaker 1 (07:07):
That was awesome to see in person.

Speaker 2 (07:09):
Before we get onto this Patriots matchup, just your final
thoughts putting the bow on the Saints matchup. Obviously we
got to move on. It's an NFC game, This one
weighs a lot more. But I mean, what were really
just your big takeaways from that game in general, as
far as team performance or anything that you took note
of both good or bad.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
Well, it was.

Speaker 3 (07:25):
It was a nice win, you know. I mean I
hate to pair it the same things that you hear
from the team on the field, but I believe in it,
you know, and that is that any win in the
NFL is a good win.

Speaker 1 (07:35):
You know.

Speaker 3 (07:35):
Sometimes I feel like we've taken for granted just how
difficult it really is to win in this league and
how many little things you need to do well in
order to you know, win. At the rate that the
Bills have won. How many games in a row have
they won at home now at this point, right, I mean,
are they is it eighteen regular season games or you know,
I mean that's incredible. And and you know, expectations get

(07:59):
set by the media, they get set by spreads, you know,
because everyone's trying to quantify how good a team is.
And honestly, you know, if the Bills and Saints played
that game, you know, ten times, I bet the Bills
cover probably in five or more of them. You know,
there were some extenuating circumstances and and you know, the
first few games of the season, really the first half

(08:20):
of the season, every team is still trying to figure
out who they are what they do well. They're trying
to understand their new players and leverage their strengths. And
you know, before I it was on my on the
way on my drive over here to my office where
I'm coming to you live from, I was thinking kind
of about some of the things that I wanted to
talk about tonight, including this, you know, the concern, you know,

(08:41):
because everyone's wanting the Bills to look like the Super
Bowl favorite every game in game out right now immediately,
you know, week four, week five into the season, and
you know what I thought about was the and I
retweeted this or I put a tweet out before the show,
the AJ Clin breakout game. Do you remember that this
again the Seahawks in twenty twenty. Yes, AJ Clein had

(09:04):
been dogged by Bill's mafia a week after week after week,
and you know, really fans didn't like see him on
the field. He was getting beaten coverage. It was really
you know, it was not working out well, and and
you know, fans were picking up on it. And then
all of a sudden, they have this Week nine game
against the Seattle Seahawks and AJ Klein goes off and

(09:27):
he is running through the line of scrimmage. You know,
TFLs all just all over the place, and you know, realistically,
like there's nothing really changed that much with aj Klein
from week one to week nine in terms of his
personal performance. What it was was the Bills learning how
to deploy the player from within their scheme that made

(09:48):
him an effective player. And you know, oftentimes this is
going to be the case. You know, this is going
to be the first nine weeks. And what makes us
even more interesting is the fact that you know, some
of the main guys that they were counting on, you know,
being available week one, two of them are out in
suspension that we're going to get back. We've got Maxwell Harriston,
who's you know, still on the IR so you know
they're going to be not only are we still trying

(10:09):
to figure out what we have, but there's gonna be
reinforcements that they still have to ingratiate into this roster.
So you know, as a whole, I was happy with
the win. I was happy with a lot of things
about the performance. And the only other thing I will say,
other than kind of giving them a pass for it
being early in the season, is that the Saints defense,
they are one of the better teams in terms of

(10:30):
have a great on defense and havoc score. It's one
of the metrics that I put together kind of track
how much chaos the defense creates. And believe it or not,
the Saints are you know, I think it was seventh overall.
Seventh or eighth overall. They're up there, so they pose,
you know, all sorts of challenges on the defensive side
of the ball, so you know, if the offense didn't

(10:51):
feel great at times, it's a combination of things. We're
still figuring it out. And you know, that was a
good team.

Speaker 2 (10:59):
Yeah, I completely agree on really anything coming to the
Saints as far as.

Speaker 1 (11:05):
Being a competitive team. And when you watched their games
leading into this pass matchup, you never saw a team
that was this god awful atrocity on the field, like
as advertised with their record. What you saw was a
team that remained competitive in every single game they played against.
I would argue two stingy opponents, you.

Speaker 2 (11:23):
Know, not top flight, but guys that I think were
kind of on their level, and they played one score
tight games and just couldn't close. And then you get
to the Seattle game, and the Seattle game is just
again very quick special teams miscues that led to the
game getting out of hand before they ever really could
take their breath. And I think that says a lot
because when they came into this Buffalo game, when you
come off a loss like that, you kind of hear

(11:44):
the oacliche they're motivated, But they really were, and that
was a team playing with the tear on fire for
most of that game. I mean the first half that
Saints team didn't look like they were zero to three.
They looked like a real viable competitor. They were a
team that the special teams even tightened things up for
pretty much most of the game up until the end.
The defense was flying and causing some havoc. They were
mixing coverages, the pass rush was hitting Home RVD and torrents.

(12:07):
They isolated them a bit, so they tried to create
some disruption on that side and it really did work
for some time, and it was it was what you
kind of expected from a team that again, when you're
on in three and you have nothing to lose, you're dangerous.
And that's why, you know, I kind of titled the
episode last week that because I figured that's what the
mashup would look like and so be it. They do,
But I still think that to walk away from this

(12:29):
with again maybe just like this idea that there's so
much to clean up while you still won the game
by ten point or eleven points, that says a lot
about the team. And I think what we have to
get used to is the idea that not every win,
because I know that plenty of people do understand this,
but I feel like it still gets lost in the
conversation because in game reactions are very you know, emotionally driven.

(12:51):
It's taking logic out the window and it's just putting
in like how you're feeling right then and there. We
have to remember that getting the win is the only
thing that matters. But also these are like three point
wins or it didn't come down to a walk off
field goal, Like, they're still decisively winning these games. And
even if maybe they give up some extra yardage towards
the end of the game, maybe their defense doesn't look
as stout as it should, which is a valid concern.

(13:12):
I'm not denying that plenty of good talented teams, Championship
teams win games this way too. I was thinking about
it today, Adam, But like I thought about the last
time that we saw Brady in Buffalo, and.

Speaker 1 (13:25):
I believe it was twenty nineteen.

Speaker 2 (13:28):
That game was a one score game that came down
to the fourth quarter where the Bills offense just couldn't
get anything going and they came off the field. That
was a team that again that year, they didn't win
a Super Bowl, but they were a contending team because
they always were. It was the Patriots, and it just
made me realize, like in so many instances, these teams
just find ways to get it done, and ultimately, whatever

(13:49):
the spread is, whatever the point margin is at the
end of the game, it doesn't matter. They still win it.
And I think what we're seeing right now is a
Bills team that doesn't need to pull out all the
stops in every single game. They win in very unsexy ways,
to just put it bluntly, and it's led to a
four and oh month. And I feel like you walk
into this year after last season, and you know, if

(14:10):
you didn't tell me how they did it, you just said, hey,
this is their roster and this is their record. After September,
you'd sign up for it every single time. And I
understand a lot of the discourse stems from, well, I'm
thinking about the playoffs, and I'm thinking about Kansas City,
and I'm thinking about what it looks like then. But
this team's not going to be the same team in
that month because it doesn't work that way. These teams
are constantly piecing it together each week and going back

(14:32):
to the tape, and things like gap integrity improve over
the year, things like again assignments and being able to
not react in the wrong ways to certain run concepts
that can improve over a year. And of course you
brought it up reinforcements that can also improve during the year,
and it will because they're going to get bodies back
starting this Sunday, where potentially Matt Mlano returns, Spencer Brown's

(14:54):
back in the.

Speaker 1 (14:54):
Lineup, maybe at Oliver will see and down the road.

Speaker 2 (14:57):
Michael Hoyt, Larry Ogunjobi Hairstin, Like, we got to remember
that this defense is a bit of a shell of
itself right now.

Speaker 1 (15:05):
Not fully.

Speaker 2 (15:05):
There's still talent there. I'm not trying to discredit the
talented players, but there's more coming here. And I think
once you get those key pieces that they were hanging
their hats on, you are going to see improvement in
several metrics, and I think that can start this Sunday
again if you see guy like Milano and Brown come
back into the fold for both sides of the ball.

Speaker 1 (15:23):
So I love those.

Speaker 2 (15:24):
Points, Adam, anything else you want to add before we
move on to the beginning part of this matchup preview?

Speaker 3 (15:29):
No, I think we you know, I think we primarily
covered it. Let's dive into the pats for sure, real fast.

Speaker 2 (15:36):
David Seaman, thank you so much for joining us on Facebook,
and I see do you think Ed Oliver will be
back this Sunday as well as Matt Milano. I think
Milano will be again practice he's just lort healthy. I
think Ed they might wait another week. That's just my guest,
given that Ed based off some of the accounts I follow,
who are much more equipped for this type of conversation
than I am. As far as evaluation, they have kind

(15:56):
of noticed a bit of a gimpiness at Ed step.
It's improved, but maybe waiting one more week is more
ideal to get a fully effective version of him. But
it wouldn't shock me if he does play and it's
just on a snap count and they just go with
guys like Dean Walker maybe TJ if he's healthy, and
Jordan Phillips, and maybe they'll bring back Zion log. I
don't know what their plan is, but I think if
they waited another week for ED, it wouldn't shock me

(16:18):
and I.

Speaker 1 (16:19):
Would kind of be all for it.

Speaker 2 (16:20):
But going to this Patriots matchup, Adam so I just
crunched the numbers a bit and I'm just comparing there
are their defense to our offense. So right now the
Buffalo Bills, after this first month, they're sitting first and
EPA for play point one eight, fifth and passing EPA
per play, and first in rushing EPA per play.

Speaker 1 (16:35):
This is all for next gen stats. The Pats defense is.

Speaker 2 (16:39):
Currently twenty second in EPA per play, but here's the
caveat twenty sixth in passing EPA with a plus point
one zero, but they're fourth in rushing EPA oh out
and negative point one eight.

Speaker 1 (16:48):
So they are a stingy rushing defense.

Speaker 2 (16:51):
And what we've seen from their injury reports this week
is guys like Milton Williams and calebon Chasen just kind
of appearing and it seemed like they're Proagno, this was
going to be that they might miss this week, but
Milton Williams comes back to a limited capacity, and now
what we're seeing is maybe the potential for their interior
line to be healthy, and I think that would post challenges.
I'm very interested to hear Adam what you have to

(17:12):
say about this matchup.

Speaker 1 (17:13):
I mean, what are you looking out for?

Speaker 2 (17:15):
What are the biggest things that you say fan should
keep their eye on that might be really the biggest
difference in how the Bills can execute both on the
ground and in the air against the Patriots.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (17:25):
Well, let's let's talk big picture first, right, So when
I look at the Patriots right now in their current form,
they remind me a lot of the Bills from twenty nineteen.
You know, let's you know, let's just start with Drake May.
He looks like he's gonna be good man, everything that
I've seen on him. You know, everyone's talking about his
numbers this year, but even last year, a lot of

(17:46):
the analytics that you'd read on May, you know, painted
a very positive picture, and that was behind pretty poorer
offensive line and you know, not a lot of options
in the you know, in terms of past targets, reliable
past targets, and you know, they're they're they're in that
process of rebuilding this team in a way that they can,

(18:08):
of course become more formidable. And the thing about the
Patriots as they're built right now is that they're they're
not you know, I mean, no team's perfect, right, but
they're they're built to only win in very specific ways.
And that's very common when you see teams at this
stage of a rebuild where they focus on, you know,

(18:31):
building to certain strengths, especially as part of quarterback development.
We saw this with the Bills with Josh Allen. The
priority when he was a younger player, you know, on
his rookie deal, was building out the wide receiver corps,
getting him some reasonable protection. That offensive line in twenty
twenty was you know, one of the best lines they
had during you know, his his tenure with the Bills

(18:53):
so far, you know, getting him a wide range of
receivers to help bring him along. And yeah, I feel
like the Pats have sort of followed that playbook a
little bit obviously. I Mean, they right down to the
idea of bringing in Stefan Diggs, you know, like the
Bills did, a guy who you know, maybe isn't a
true wide receiver one type guy anymore, but he can

(19:16):
still do all the little things that you need him
to to get open in tight spaces and whatnot, and
and make it a little bit easier on a younger
quarterback still developing to you know, to make the throws
that he needs to throw. So, you know, conceptually, there
is only a few paths to the Patriots beating the

(19:36):
Bills in this game. But what makes it interesting is
the fact that, as you just said, it is strength
on strength. The Bills are primarily built first and foremost,
as we know, to run the football, and the Patriots
defense has been good at stopping the run. Conversely, the
Patriots offense has not been good at running the football.
Bill's defense not so good at stopping the run, at

(19:59):
least through the start. But the Bill's defense has been
good against the pass, and the Patriots look very very good,
you know, throwing the ball. So it's going to be
a strength on strength battle to start the game. The
you know, the difference is really going to be if
the Bills con flex you know, their ability and keep
the run going, or even if the Patriots get up

(20:21):
early on the Bills. I don't think they're going to
have a lot of success bleeding clock by you know,
hitting the ball across the ground, which will give the
Bills opportunities to come back in the game if they
don't have you know, the start that they need.

Speaker 1 (20:34):
So yeah, you.

Speaker 3 (20:35):
Know, only a few paths really to the Patriots winning
this game, but they're there.

Speaker 2 (20:40):
I I feel like I do this every year on
the show, Adam, where I kind of say, don't sleep
on the Patriots, but I feel like this year is
the one where it really range true for my time
at Cover one because I agree with you on really
everything you said. But the biggest thing I want to
highlight before we get back into the matchup conversation.

Speaker 1 (20:59):
More specifically, it's just Drake May. Yeah. I felt very
strongly that I wanted him.

Speaker 2 (21:05):
To never be in New England and I was really
hoping that they would dwart their chances because I figured
this was going to be the trajectory. I loved him
as a prospect, and here he is, and he's doing
incredibly well for them, and it isn't just like kind
of that frantic what you'd expect a year two player
to do where it's like, yeah, there's some flashes, but
they're still really inconsistent and they're still not really taking
advantage of things now. Like Drake May, from an EPA standpoint,

(21:28):
is one of the highest rate of quarterbacks in the NFL.
His third down numbers are the best in the NFL,
and he's doing this in spite of you know, I
would argue a receiving cord that, while it's talented, isn't
top five in the NFL, and offensive line, while it
has some pieces, isn't top five in the NFL. A
running game that has yet to truly establish itself despite
drafting a very talented rookie and having an established veteran.

(21:51):
This is Drake May and Josh McDaniels, who deserves a
lot of credit too, because he's been very very good
at getting the most out of his quarterbacks as an OC,
especially young ones. This is them playing at a high
level and executing at a high level. And I understand
the schedule has been a bit weak for them, but
this is still a really talented passing offense because of

(22:12):
a very talented quarterback playing well above his means in
year two. And I think this is just the start
of a very successful and extremely annoying career for Buffalo Bills. Fans,
but listen, competition's fun. I know we want a cruise
to victory every year, but it's good for the game
and I could support that. And there's nothing to not
like about Drake May as a person, And I could

(22:33):
say that he's an extremely talented quarterback and we'll have
our hands full because again, I think he's seeing the
field really well. I understand that when there's pressure, his
pressure to sack rate isn't great. I believe he's leading
the league right now in thirteen sacks taken, but clean
pockets for Drake May. The processing is there, the layer
throws are there. He's been mostly accurate a couple high throws,
but he's still putting the ball where it needs to go.

(22:55):
And Josh McDaniels is doing a great job of setting
him up for success, similar to kind of what I
talked about last week with Kellen Moore in spensive ratt
where this year McDaniel is doing a great job of
giving him really good first reads to take advantage of.

Speaker 1 (23:07):
But don't get it twisted.

Speaker 2 (23:09):
Even if Drake May's numbers aren't there yet for being
top flight in the NFL, of getting through his progressions,
he can and he has the throwing ability to really
hurt you all over the field. So this is just
an offense that I think right now hasn't played their
best ball. But you're seeing against some of the viability
in their passing attack. But when we talk about this
Bill's offense relative to the Patriots defense and really just

(23:30):
how the Bills can attack it, I agree with you, Adam.
I mean, it's a test, it's a defense that's been stingy,
but I do think they're passing defense is where you.

Speaker 1 (23:37):
Can exploit them.

Speaker 2 (23:38):
But what I will say is I feel like this
Buffalo Bill's rushing offense is good enough to take the
ball down on anybody like they just are, and they've
proven it time and time again. I mean last year
in the playoffs. I've cited this before. Even in the
Kansas City game with a really good front, they were
still able to move the ball on the ground. I
think that this Patriots team has done a real nice

(24:00):
jobs so far in mitigating rushing attacks. I think gamescript
has had something to do with it, and I do
think some teams have been able to get their punches off,
like the Miami Dolphins, who did have a few explosive
runs in their game. I think that this is probably
their biggest test on the ground for a rushing offense,
and I think the Bills are still going to have
success mainly if they could try to keep I would say.

Speaker 1 (24:18):
Their rushes towards the edges. They're going to run all over.
Don't get me wrong.

Speaker 2 (24:21):
It's not like they're going to avoid the interior in general,
but I do think that they've had some trouble fully
containing runs to the perimeter, and I think, especially if
Jason is gone, you probably try to exploit that matchup
by going outside of your tackles a bit more often.
And I think James Cook is just explosive enough to
always be a threat in that regard.

Speaker 1 (24:38):
So that's where I'd like to see them attack.

Speaker 2 (24:40):
But again, if it has to be through the air,
I feel very comfortable with this. Again, it's no disrespect
to some of the members of the secondary, and believe me,
there are talented pieces in the secondary.

Speaker 1 (24:50):
Christian Gonzales is the same thing, an unbelievable talent.

Speaker 2 (24:55):
I'm not talking like a guy that you'll say is
like in the top fifteen, Like this is top five quarter.
He just has to stay healthy. But if he does,
We're seeing one of the best corners in the game.
He's ramping up, and I think that is exploitable. But
each week is another week where he gets more play
under his belt and gets better and better. And I
find that even with their passing metrics right now, he's
the type of corner you want to avoid throwing too,

(25:16):
because he is just so good in man coverage and
just plays people so well. No matter the type of
receiver you are, he can hang with you. He's manned
up Tyreek Hill on go routes like that. That's how
good this kid is. And I think he's a pain
point for this Bills offense. So I think what they
really have to do is try to exploit the safeties.
I think motion misdirection and trying to get people to
tackle from depth and exploiting yak opportunities with some safeties

(25:38):
who might not be as composed when it comes from
taking proper angles or maybe being able to read the
open field well or make an open field tackle. I
think that's where you can have some success. It still
kind of makes me wonder why they got rid of
Jabrill Peppers considering the current state of their safety room.
But again, it's a defense that has a lot of talent.
I think the Bills are going to go up tempo.

(25:59):
I think the Bills are going to try and get
the ball out quickly. I think they're going to try
and mitigate this passing attack, especially considering or pass rush.
I should say especially considering who sits there on that
interior defensive line, because again, Christian Barmore is an exceptional
interior defensive lineman. He's healthy this year. Milton, Frick and Williams.
I mean Aaron sighted the stat in our chat as

(26:19):
we were messing with Greg where he mentioned that him
and Chason are accounting for just about forty percent of
their total pressures. I love Milton Williams as a player.
I wanted him on the Bills. He's on the Patriots,
and I think that their interior pressure is unrelenting. And again,
while they have faced worse offensive lines, that does not
mean I am going to discount what they have done.
I respect the hell out of what they were able

(26:40):
to provide. I think they're going to give them fits.
It is very imperative that the ball gets out of
Josh Allen's hands quickly unless you can dress up some
play action again, get him to hold the ball, get
a deeper drop, deeper pocket, and see the field a
little more cleanly, because I think extended plays are where
they can win too. But yeah, I mean, I'm really
pumped to watch this. You know, the whole unstoppable force
meets and moveable object argument. When you talk about a

(27:02):
really good rushing attack versus a really good rushing.

Speaker 1 (27:04):
Defense, who wins.

Speaker 2 (27:06):
But I do think the Bills are going to get
the better of them when you talk about the context
of the whole game, because I just don't think considering
the style of football they play at them, I feel
like it's just wear and tear, ground and pound trying
to tire you out. And I just don't think there
is a defensive line that has enough bodies to withstand that,
especially if they have to stay on the field, and
especially if these aren't more athletic guys that are typically

(27:26):
upfield guys, but rather your conventional run stuff or big
bodies that might lose Stamino a little more quick a
little quickly. So any other thoughts, anything you want to
bring up while we are on this topic.

Speaker 3 (27:36):
Well, you know you mentioned Christian barrmore. One of the
things that I looked at was the TT pass rush
pass rush effective his start. And usually when I look,
when I like to, you know, kind of scout how
well the defensive line is registering pressure. I like to
filter out the blitz blitzes. You know a lot of
times I feel like that's a forgotten aspect of you know,
looking at looking at pressures, and you know, I want

(27:57):
to see how a team is performing in a standard rush.
And Christian Barmore is seventeenth according to Next Gen Stats
in pressure rate at sixteen point seven percent. That will
make him the third best pass rusher at least, you know,
the pass rusher with the third highest pressure rate that
the Bills have faced the season. You know, Matta Bouquet

(28:17):
is eleventh, and Will McDonald's actually fifteenth, so you know
there's you know, behind him, Kean White the defensive end
twenty seventh. You know, so they seem to even though
they you know, are not looking so hot against the pass,
they seem to be having some success at least in
getting some pressure on the quarterback. So, you know, talking

(28:39):
about the quick game like you did, Yeah, I definitely
think that'll be a big part of it, which you know,
I look forward after the game, hearing all about why
the Bills didn't you know, push the ball downfield again.

Speaker 1 (28:50):
But the last game, by the way, as you go
right exactly.

Speaker 3 (28:54):
But but you know, you know, when you're when you're
facing teams that have, you know, certain strengths, you're you're
trying to develop a game plan around neutralizing them. And
you know that's that's one of the ways that that
you can do that, you know, on the flip side,
while I had the stat open, by the way, Joey
Bosa eighth and pressure rate through next Gen Stats twenty

(29:17):
percent point in every five snaps that he plays without
the blitz, he's registering a pressure and his get off
is one of the quickest in the league as well.
His you know the way next Gen Stats measures at
zero point eight eight seconds. So uh, you know, I
mean he is I know that, you know, he's leaving
some to be desired in the you know, in the

(29:39):
ground game and on the run and you know, wrapping
up quarterbacks the right way and kind of picking, you know,
choosing where he's kind of positioning himself. But man, from
a pure pass rush standpoint, I feel like, especially when
at Oliver gets back you know, fans are really going
to warm up to what this guy is doing on
the field to compress the pocket.

Speaker 2 (30:00):
Yeah, I've been a big fan of Joey Bo's with
a pass rusher. Obviously, there's still work to be done
as a run defender, which it's kind of disheartening so
far in that regard, only because he has been a
good run defender at his time in LA when he's healthy.
I don't know if it's just different calls or different
tendencies with this defense, or if it's really just shaking
off the rust and maybe during the year he'll get better,
which is kind of what I suspect what happened as

(30:22):
Lossie stays healthy knock on Wood. But yeah, this Patriots
pass rush is no joke man, and Chase On might
not be good to go for Sunday. Maybe Milton Williams
isn't good to go for Sunday. Obviously we can only
hope that because that would make things a little bit
easier un less to deal with. But assuming they're both
good to go, I mean, this is a Patriots team
that isn't blitzing off and they're eighteenth in the league
right now at a twenty four point six percent blitz percentage.

(30:44):
So I mean it's not like they're constantly sending the hounds,
but they have the bodies to win before and the
bodies to send extra pressure and really put you in hell.

Speaker 1 (30:52):
I know that they could show a bunch of different
looks too.

Speaker 2 (30:54):
And try to get you off your guard, you know,
simulated pressures to try and kind of disguise it a bit,
send some wine backers through the gaps and create hell.
So this is a test for this Bills offensive line,
but one that I feel like, you know, if I
had to say I was if I was comfortable with
them being able to handle the D line, I think
they could obviously. I just think we have a really
stout offensive line, and it makes me feel a lot

(31:15):
better about most of these matchups we face, because listen,
every defensive line at some point in a game is
going to have its wins. The Saints had him this
past Sunday. That's just the nature of the game. But
if you get me Spencer Brown back healthy to go
back with Cibo, I just feel like, again, apart from
the ground of pound element, which I do think the
Bills will be able to pull off, I just trust
them enough in passpro to keep Josh Queen to get

(31:36):
the ball out of his hands and maybe like two
and a half seconds, which I think is more than
enough time for him to find somebody. And then it's
really going to put some stress on the second level
coverage to be able to handle guys like Shakir Palmer
or Dalton Kinkaid, who I think is going to have
a big game. I think that's probably one of my
biggest matchups to watch out for. You bring up Joey
Bosa and I want to bring this up too. We'll

(31:57):
probably see him against Will Campbell a lot in this game.
Will Campbell has been playing exceptionally to start his career.
I mean, top five pick. He kind of hoped he would.
People were worried about his arms. I think we got
a little too obsessed with his arms. The kid is
playing great ball, he's pass protecting really well. He's doing
his best in the run game. Again, that'll develop over time.
That's a big matchup because if Joey Bosa, an experienced

(32:20):
pass rusher, can't really get anything going against a rookie tackle,
I mean, that's not really good for the confidence, but
also that's a big pain point when you talk about
being able to affect Drake May in the pocket, because
all of a sudden, your best pass rusher is completely
neutralized on the left side.

Speaker 1 (32:36):
If Greg Russau, who is.

Speaker 2 (32:37):
Playing a little bit banged up according to many people,
can't really get anything going either.

Speaker 1 (32:42):
You're asking your interior to get a lot done.

Speaker 2 (32:44):
And if Ed Oliver is not playing, then it's like,
all right, Dion Walker, Daiquon Jones, what have you got
for us? But again, I think I think the Pats
aren't going to really hold the ball much. I think
a lot of their long ball holes will probably come
from play action and probably trying to stress the field
vertically when they can to one of their tight ends.
One of the highest one first teams of the league perspective,
I mean, that's going to be a very big matchup

(33:04):
for me. If Joey Bosa can get his wins on
that side and be consistent create disruption, I do think
that's going to put the Patriots in a bit of
a bind, because again, the rest of their offensive line
isn't fully geled yet. I don't want to call it bad.
It's definitely better than last year. But Joey Boza being
able to win that matchup would just put infinitely more
stress on them, and I think it would ruin a
lot of anything they really want to do when it

(33:25):
comes to long form concepts down the field. I want
to pull this up because I just brought up the
tight end usage for them though, so the Patriots right now.
I mean, I think a big thing for them really
stems from how they're using their ten ends. Actually, Adam,
I'm getting to ahead of myself because I want to
talk about defense in a second, anything else you have
on this Bills offense versus Patriots defense before we move on.

(33:45):
I do this all the time. I get too carried away.

Speaker 3 (33:48):
No, I think you know. The only thing I'd say.
You know, you mentioned that the Patriots only have about
a twenty percent you know, blitz rate. But this would
be a hell of a good week for them to
break tendency, you know, especially if for some reason Spencer
Brown can't go and he's not ready. Uh you know,
you saw the Saints put out there. Uh you know
exactly what you can do to try to get some
pressure on that right side of the line when when

(34:09):
Spencer Brown is not in there, and uh, you know,
with the type of guys that they have with you know,
with Hoop, the guys that might be missing. Uh, it
sure would be a good week to to try to
bring some pressure, especially uh if they can kind of
focus them as uh run blitzes with you know how
high or how often the Bills run on those early downs. Uh,

(34:30):
that could end up you know, working as past pressures
if they do decide to h to drop back. So
you know, that's one thing I'd be looking out for.
I have a feeling that the blitz rate it's going
to be you know, higher than normal for for for
New England, at least early on.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
Yeah, and the Bills are only two spots up on
H on the Patriots as we pivot over to defense
full time now because I kind of already spoiled some
of my defensive talk again, I write these topics down
where I'm like, we're gonna start with offense, that go
defense and it just goes all over.

Speaker 1 (34:56):
So that's my dad.

Speaker 3 (34:57):
But we just roll away. We're free, We're free flowing man.
It's oh good.

Speaker 1 (35:00):
I love it, just like water man be water.

Speaker 2 (35:02):
But you know, talking about blitz rates, that those are
only two spots ahead at sixteenth in the league. But
these two teams sit right next to each other in
terms of total quarterback pressure percentage.

Speaker 1 (35:11):
Bills are twelfth in the league.

Speaker 2 (35:12):
At thirty six point one and the Patriots all boil
them at thirty five point five.

Speaker 1 (35:17):
Not a stark difference. They're not sending as much pressure.

Speaker 2 (35:20):
They really try to mix in extra bodies with again
simulated pressures, creeper pressures, try to keep you guessing. I
would really like to see them ramp up their blitz
percentage and just put stress on May. The only concern
I have is, and this is kind of my biggest
concern for the defense in general in this game, May's legs.
I mean, I think if you could keep May in

(35:40):
the pocket, He's still going to get his wins.

Speaker 1 (35:42):
He's still going to get decisive throws.

Speaker 2 (35:44):
We'll talk about the tight ends in a second, but
May's legs have been able to sustain and when you
talk about a success on third down, there is a
part of it that comes from his athleticism to get
out of the pocket. They've struggled in this regard. They
struggled with it last week against Spencer Rattler. I do
wonder if they try to dedicate a spy to May
again if they try to make it Bernard, if it's Milana,
whoever it may have to be, to just keep him

(36:06):
contained in the pocket because they've been able to again
get into these third and long situations to be able
to hold teams into that spot, but then they get
punched in the mouth on a third and long and
a part of it last week came from Spencer Ratler
being able to run break containing just get into the
open field for an explosive run. That can't happen this
week because that's just simply not a world you can

(36:27):
live in. You have to be able to start, you know,
stifle all momentum for this team, especially one that seems
to not be able to get it going consistently on
the ground. You have to take away the other component,
which is Drake May's rushing ability, which has been what
they've leaned on to kind of galvanize their rushing attack
at points this year. So I mean that to me
is a huge matchup, and I think that's going to
stem from sending pressure, putting them in third and very

(36:49):
long situations.

Speaker 1 (36:50):
You know, the.

Speaker 2 (36:50):
Ability to get those havoc plays on early downs and
put him in a really big, stressful situation, but also
dedicating someone to him not missing the tackle and being
able to take him down in the open field. That's
just that's everything, man, Because we've gotten to watch Josh
Allen do it for so long and we're so used
to it. That drives defensive coordinators crazy. We're spoiled. But
the Patriots have a guy that can do this. Now,

(37:11):
this isn't a statue in the pocket. This kid is athletic.

Speaker 1 (37:14):
He can move. They have to be able to contain
them if they can't.

Speaker 2 (37:18):
Expect a big day on the ground for May and
maybe even their rushing attack with annoyingly sustained drives that
are going to lead to points. Because if you can't
get him to if you can't stop that, it's going
to be a long day for you on the ground.

Speaker 1 (37:28):
But a turn it back to you, what do you got?

Speaker 3 (37:30):
Yeah, And it's not gonna be just scrambles, you know,
there's gonna be with the amount of play action that
they mix in there, there's gonna be I'm sure bootlegs.
You know, there'll be all kinds of different annoying ways
that they're going to try to, you know, get him
you know, use it utilizes legs as a weapon as
part of that game. And and you know, the good
news is that the Bills know it's a problem. You know,
every time that they've had something that they've struggled on

(37:52):
over the last you know whatever in the Sean Dermot
air era. When you get through the earlier games of
the season, you see them working on it. You see
them working on it. Uh. You know, for example with
the young players, gap integrity, right, something that's come up
quite a bit as of late. And what do we
see in video from the practice field this week? Did
you did you see my Michael Scott meme they shared
with with the t J Sanders Uh, one of the

(38:15):
he was out there, he was out there anyways, they
were working on gap integrity, and you know TJ was
just practicing keeping his leverage onto the you know, the
left side, onto his gap, and the coaches are just
screaming gap integrity at him, you know, and just trying
to get him to remember, like, hey, this is something
to constantly be you know, be thinking about this, Be
cognizant of this. Remember this is where you need to
be when uh, you know, do year one of eleventh

(38:37):
when you're out there on the field and uh, and
so you know, going into a game against a QB
with some strengths that has been a weakness for them
so far, it's a hell of an opportunity. You know,
it's a it's a spot to see, Okay, have the
things that we've been working on, uh, you know, uh
been helping us improve and uh, you know, Drake May

(38:59):
will be a good test for that on the you know,
the other thing it'll be challenging about it, though, is
that you know, through their play action game, we've talked
about those tight ends, Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry right.
Their tight end target rate is the third highest in
the league. On first down, Drake May throws to his
tight ends thirty six point four percent of his past
attempt so more than a third on first down he's

(39:21):
thrown to the tight end. And you know Bills are
not that far behind that. Josh Allen seventh air. But
you know that the other thing that's scary about that is, uh,
the Patriots there their yards per attempt when they're throwing
to their tight ends nine point five. They are getting
They're getting the ball down the field, They're getting the

(39:43):
ball down the field when they're throwing to their tight ends.
They've also got three touchdowns. The Bills have four Bills
yards per the Bills yards per attempt when they're throwing
to the tight ends nine point one.

Speaker 1 (39:53):
You know.

Speaker 3 (39:54):
So you know, Patriots are very very good at, you know,
getting the ball to Henry and especially on early downs
out of play action, and you know that's going to
be a thing to be concerned about and the thing
to watch. Combined with May's legs, that's one of the
reasons that he's been so dangerous this year.

Speaker 1 (40:11):
Yeah, they their tight ends have been a menace.

Speaker 2 (40:14):
Hunter Henry has been a very consistent player for New
England while he's been there, but this year it seems
like it's the coming out party for him again now
that you have Drake May taking that developing leap in
year two, if you want to call it that, Hunter
Henry has definitely reaped the benefits and has been a
steady presence for them. I will say this too, I've
looked it up earlier, just going off personnel rates, their
twelve P rate, they are sixth in it total and

(40:36):
they're eleventh and total EPA generated in twelve personnel so
that's not a slouching offense. That's not an offense that struggles.
That is an offense that's going to have two tight
ends on the field often and will be a test
for the linebacking corps. And it's very big to have
Matt Milano back in this game for that exact reason,
because I think Matt Milano has typically been able to
have success when it comes to just second level coverage

(40:57):
against tight ends. I think, again, while I respect Dalston
Hooper and I respect Hunter Henry, I do think Matt Milano,
as long as he is healthy, is capable of covering,
and he's going to have to.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
He's going to be tested in that regard.

Speaker 2 (41:08):
But really, the play action rate and the ability to
ball fake and being able to get those tight ends
in space, that's been the Patriots bread and butter in
addition to other things, and you have to be ready
for it, because again, I think that's really what they
rely on at times to just galvanize their offense and
get going. And when you talk about pieces that we
haven't even talked about yet, like Stefan Diggs or Kayshaan

(41:29):
Boody or Kyle Williams or even Trevion Henderson as a
pass catcher. Selling your soul to defend the tight end
and then letting these guys run wild is not going
to cut it.

Speaker 1 (41:37):
It has to be sound.

Speaker 2 (41:38):
But I do think being able to take away the
tight ends in an effective way that doesn't involve totally
altering your game plan for them and reducing their effectiveness
will allow.

Speaker 1 (41:47):
You to contain the receiving cores a little bit. And
it's going to be a challenge for them.

Speaker 2 (41:51):
I mean, I have been really impressed with May and
the way he's targeted them and the accuracy he's thrown.

Speaker 3 (41:56):
Yeah, it's funny that you mentioned that because one of
the things, you know, I've been trying to do some
deeper research with with Eric on kind of like a
quarter season review, comparing the Bills tendencies and some of
the data to from the season to you know, what
their year as a whole looked like last year. And
you know, the talk about the run game, one of
the things that is really standing out is the amount

(42:17):
of first downs per rush, the amount of you know,
now that I have some access to some of the
deeper next gen stats, thankfully, I can look at things
like the average time to tackle from snap on a
rush play, Bills are fifth worst in the NFL four
point six seconds from the start of the rush to
completing the tackle, and but they're the ninth fastest when

(42:37):
defending the pass. They have the fourth shortest average yards
gained per tackle on pass plays, but they are the
worst team in the league and yards gained per rush
at four point four. So it seems like almost like
the data is kind of screaming the Bills are intentionally saying,

(43:00):
I don't care if you want to run. And I
know that we've seen this a little bit in the past,
the Bills kind of being more of a I care
more about stopping the pass than the run. But it
seems to be even more heavily focused that way this
season compared to what we've seen in the past, which
in some ways is pretty curious because you know, some
of their personnel decisions don't necessarily suggest that's the case.

(43:23):
They've been running significantly higher rate of three tight end
sets on defense, right They've been trying to find ways
to adjust a little bit more to this kind of
you know, transition phase of the NFL where the rushing
attack is being utilized more, but it's almost like they're saying,
you go ahead, because I don't think you're going to
be able to rush better than us over the course

(43:44):
of a half, three quarters, and eventually we are going
to pull away. But what you're not going to do,
because we are built more to beat you on the ground,
what you're not going to do is throw the ball
over us. And so when we're talking about covering these
tight ends and taking away the strength of the Patriots,
which is throwing the ball, because let's be honest, the

(44:04):
use of twelve personnel for New England is entirely mostly
for the pass game, right, Like Austin Hooper and Hunter Henry,
you know, I mean, they're not terrible, but they're not
guys that you think about as prolific blocking tight ends, right,
And so you know, it's all about the pass game.
And if the Bills sit back and defend that and

(44:25):
again go into a game trying to all you need
when you're stopping the rush is to win one series
where that happens up and down the field is a
little bit less important. So I think there's a little
bit of merit to at least the way they're playing
early on, especially without a fully formed offense and a
fully formed defense. We'll just have to see how well
it goes and if they continue to kind of lean

(44:47):
into that identity defensively on Sunday.

Speaker 2 (44:50):
Yeah, and also containing the explosives I think is a
big thing they have to emphasize in this game, because
I love that point that was so well said, really
really insightful, and I mean for them, I think the
biggest issue had been, well, they are, you know, mitigating
the passing attack a bit. They are still giving up
heavy yards and explosives. But if they can just generate
those negative plays more often, I think they're going to

(45:11):
be in a better spot when it talks about when
you talk about defending Drake May and this entire offense.

Speaker 1 (45:17):
Again, the twelve personnel component scares me.

Speaker 2 (45:19):
The receiving court scares me a little bit if that
twelve p component is successful.

Speaker 1 (45:24):
In this game.

Speaker 2 (45:25):
But yeah, it's been very odd to watch teams kind
of run the ball at will against them and then
you look at the final scores and you're like, huh,
but this felt way worse than it actually ended up
being kind of what they live in because I think
they just feel that confident and also again Eric has
talked about this a lot, not showing their hands schematically
on both sides of the ball, playing something if you
want to call it vanilla, but really it's just spamming

(45:46):
reliable concepts they know we're gonna work, and then pulling
out the bag if they need it. I feel like
on defense, you know, there was some really interesting things
that I saw them throw at the Saints, but only
here and there. They played a lot of single high
in that game. They played a lot of basic and coverage.
They didn't really send a lot of extra bodies, and
they were just like, go ahead, throw the ball. Because
I saw this comment earlier from Swin and he wasn't

(46:07):
wrong here where he said Spencer Rety moved the ball
at ease against the Bills. They were moving the ball.
It just well, they weren't finishing. And that's kind of
what Sean McDermott wants to do. And it's kind of
why I say this defense is infuriating to watch because again,
you talk about the third down conversions, you talk about
the sustained drives, but ultimately they make the plays they
need to make when they need to make them, Like

(46:27):
it's a turnover at a timely event where it's almost
like they sit up in their gamer chair and they
just all of a sudden make a play. And I
think what that really stems from is, again, we just
don't think you're going to be able to sustain drives
like this the entire game, and we're waiting for you.

Speaker 1 (46:41):
To make a mistake.

Speaker 2 (46:42):
The only concern I have, and I feel like this
might be shared and I feel like we might see
a little bit more creativity on defense, is that this
is not the same team as the Saints, and that
you might actually have to throw a little bit more
of your kitchen sink at them schematically.

Speaker 1 (46:55):
That's kind of what I'm interested to say.

Speaker 3 (46:57):
Yeah, and it's a divisional game. I mean, the questions
all week that the players were getting from the media
was about, you know, why the Bills take divisional games
so seriously and how that tone is set, and you know,
I think it was I don't know if it was.
I'm pretty sure it was Dean Dawkins who mentioned that
the tone is set from the you know, right immediately
when the last season ends. You know, they don't wait

(47:18):
until training camp to talk about division games. They're talking
about him in OTAs you know, they're talking about him
in mini camp. They're talking about division games all the time.
And if we're being honest, which game out of the
four they've played so far do we feel like the
Bills have kind of unveiled more of their exotic stuff.
He was against the Jets, right, Yeah, you know, so
I feel like these are the games that they save

(47:41):
that little bit extra. You know, the division games there's
you know, that your opponents know you better. That's also
when you got to kind of buck from tendencies a
little bit. And the rest of the games, those are
your opportunities to set them and you know, depending on
how you know, depending on how skilled your staff is.
You know, some NFL teams really do take advantage of

(48:01):
the opportunity to you know, be a little bit more
vanilla and the games that they're able to and you know,
and then you know, be a little bit more exotic
and the games that are you know, more important, because
let's be honest, division they're all. Every game is important,
but divisional games are the most important. You know, that's
that's your easiest ticket into the playoffs, winning your division,
and that that's the focus. That's at least the starting point,

(48:26):
you know, before you get later into the season.

Speaker 1 (48:28):
And the one thing that you often hear teams when
they match up with the Bills talk about, and what
they talked about this week and their pressers in New
England was really how well the Bills are?

Speaker 2 (48:37):
How well the Bills are I cannot get a clean
sentence out tonight, folks, but how how good the Bills
aren't disguising their coverages and mixing up their safeties and
their dbs. And when you have a team that already
knows you're doing that, you got to get a little
bit more creative too, because they're probably sitting on the
idea that okay, here's the one high and now they're
going to put their other safety deep and it's going
to be two halves and the corners are going to
be a man, and it's like, let's try to throw

(48:58):
some really exotics things out there. There's one thing I
saw this past week that I don't know how many
times I did it because my eyes were all over
the field, but I did notice it where they had
Trey White as the single high, which was like, oh, okay,
so we can get weird if we want to, but
we're just not doing it as much as we and
that was kind of like the comforting feeling of watching
them play the Saints, which makes me feel better about

(49:19):
this matchup in that regard. Is like you could very
much tell they were limiting themselves on what they were
showing and just trying to execute with some very basic things.
Not all the time, but like for most of the game.
But then you see Trey White as a single high
safety and I'm like, oh God, like, what are they
planning for next week? And there was also moments where,
like after halftime, I see them in a cover three
and I'm like, we weren't doing this at all during

(49:40):
the first half. Now all of a sudden, we pivoted
to having three dbs deep and they didn't read it
correctly and they got them right off the field on
a three and out. So I just sit here kind
of like I don't underestimate any team, and I don't
think it's ever as easy as just like we're holding back,
But I do think they keep things in the bag
like a break glass in case of emergency. We got
to put this out there because we have been shown
it all game and we think this is going to

(50:01):
give us some momentum, and I think in the case
of this New England game, for their secondary, getting as
creative as you can and showing them things that you
haven't shown anyone yet or at the very least shown
very little of is the biggest key to keeping that
ball in May's hands and trying to let your pressure
hit home. If they decide to hold the ball and
the Bills can do it like this passing defense, it
has very high metrics. I know a lot of that

(50:22):
can be determined from how teams are running the ball
on them, more limited passing opportunity, and the Bills getting
off the field. But they are a good passing defense
like that they are right now. I think that the
short plays can they can improve, They can improve how
they fly to the ball, but I think coverage wise
they do a really nice job. It just has to
come together and I think in this game, with more
exotic books, they can get that.

Speaker 1 (50:43):
And I hope to see it because this is the game.

Speaker 2 (50:46):
You have to do it in an divisional game against
the Patriots team that listen, they're two and two or
four and zero. I know people treat it like it's
Miles Apart. That is not Miles apart at all. We're
early on in the year. It's a two game, like
you want to pad this down and have as much
cushion as possible against any divisional opponent, especially one like
the Patriots that I think is only going to get
better as the year goes on. I'm really excited for it.

(51:07):
It's definitely one of the most anticipated matchups for me
on the schedule, just given how they've performed. If they
were zero to four, i'd probably still feel in this way,
but a little less. But this is a team that's feisty.
They have a lot to prove, and I just want
to pull up their stats at them too, because I
didn't even do that yet.

Speaker 1 (51:21):
But we're talking Pats offense in general. This year.

Speaker 2 (51:24):
We got them at ninth and EPA per play total
their fourth and passing EPA, but twenty ninth in rushing EPA.
So we talked about the tight ends, twelve personnel, how
they're going to throw the ball again. I think it'll
be a nice hybrid of play action for the deeper drops,
deeper drives, deeper route concepts, and then just a lot
of quick hitters to guys like Stefan Diggs out of
the slot, maybe boute out of the on the boundary

(51:46):
and then their tight ends. But this rushing offense, outside
of Drake May's legs, has not come through for them
the way they had hoped. And I think a part
of it again is their offensive line still meshing together
and hasn't been stable enough to prevent from being disrupted.
But also again just like weird moments and miscues from
their rushing offense, like fumbles and bad vision, like even

(52:09):
Trevion Henderson struggling as a passwalker, which was like what
he was known for coming out of college, Like little
factors that have just kind of kept them from really
realizing their potential. What's your look on their rushing attack?
I mean specifically, what are you watching out for?

Speaker 3 (52:23):
Well, I mean, uh yeah, it's it's been pretty bad
so far. I you know, there are a sub thirty
percent success rate in rushing I think it was like
twenty nine percent in change And for those who don't know,
success rate measures how often a play results in a
positive EPA. Now you know on first and second down.

(52:43):
On first down you got to gain eight yards for
you know, for a play to be considered a success.
But once you get in the second and third. You know,
depending on how many yards you have to go, that
gets much much shorter, you know, And so to only
be at you know, twenty nine percent success rate on
the rush minus point three one three epa per attempt.

(53:04):
So they are you know, literally every three times they
rush the ball. Uh, they essentially are taking a point
off the board, you know, which is which is pretty huge. Uh.
So you know, what I'm going to be looking out for,
honestly is the same things that we talked about, which
is ken the Bills continue to play the style defense
that they want to play, prioritizing defending the pass and

(53:29):
have a higher rate of success at you know, stopping
these runs sooner, not letting them develop downfield, not letting
them develop into missed tackles, not letting them you know,
run through the center of the line of scrimmage with
a lot of speed to make it more difficult on
your linebackers and and defensive backs to complete those tackles.
Because uh, you know, if they can do that, they're
really really going to be in a in a in

(53:51):
a good spot, especially if the offense is able to
move the ball and the in the early going.

Speaker 2 (53:56):
Yeah, and looking at their last game too, because I
was very interested when I all the lopside at score.

Speaker 1 (54:02):
A lot of it had to do with game script.

Speaker 2 (54:03):
So I'm not trying to knock on them because I
understand there was probably no real reason to have a
high volume game. But even then, leading rusher was Romandre
Stevenson at thirty eight yards on nine carries. They had
Trevion Henderson at seven carries thirty two yards. And what
I wonder is how much does that dynamic change in
this game, if at all, Are they still going with

(54:23):
this fifty to fifty backfield split, because I gotta be honest,
I think the biggest thing hampering them is that split
and lack of commitment to a true identity with a rusher.
I know Romandre Stevenson has been there for years, but
I feel like each season we've kind of seen what
his ceiling is as a ballcarrier, which is a good
running back, but not this upper echelon, elite guy and

(54:44):
a guy that has trouble security in the football, Trevion Henderson.

Speaker 1 (54:48):
They take him in the second round. He's a rookie,
he's still figuring it out.

Speaker 2 (54:51):
But to me, for someone to get take it so
high and not get the brunt of the snap share
is kind of interesting to me. Maybe that increases this
week in a divisional game where they've seen an even
amount of split in games pass because they want to
kind of quote unquote unleash him against Buffalo and that
changes to become something more like seventy percent of the
total snaps and they're giving him seventy percent of the

(55:13):
total carrieres like, this is a really talented player. I
feel like they're almost hampering themselves by not really giving
him the rock a bit more. And that has to
be earned, I understand. But the explosive nature of this
player is there. I believe in it. I know it
can come from him. So I just wonder if that's
kind of a sneaky storyline. Is more Trevion Henderson for

(55:34):
the Patriots this upcoming week and it being effective because
maybe the game plan wasn't really set out to really
prevent him and not really sure if his tendencies.

Speaker 3 (55:43):
Yet well, you know, I mean, the thing about Vrabel
is that he's been a thorn in the Bill's side
for you know, a long time. He he put up
some very tough games against the Buffalo Bills as the
coach of the Tennessee Titans, and I have got a
lot of respect for the way that he runs a
franchise and so if if, if he feels that that's
going to be the ticket to being more successful on

(56:05):
the ground. Uh, you know, I'm sure that that's what
they're gonna what they're gonna lean on. And Stevenson, you know,
like you said, you know, he's getting a little bit
up there, a little bit more in age. He's always
had some ball security issues. You know, I suppose game
script might have a little bit something to do with
it as well in terms of which direction that they're
going to go, because you know, if they got to
drop back and pass more, if he's still struggling uh

(56:27):
uh you know with pass blocking. Uh you know, then
you know, it might be make more sense to have
kind of a little bit more of a savvy vet
out in the field, especially if the offensive line as
a whole is struggling to to you know, to begin with.
But you know, everything I've seen in terms of comments
that I've seen from uh, you know, some of the
media that covered the New England Patriots, it's being talked

(56:47):
about the run game is what's being talked about, you know,
and they have been saying the media, you know that yeah,
they they know what Buffalo has not been able to do,
which has been, you know, stop the run. And it
seems like they know that their ticket to being successful
this week is going to be making sure that they
have an ability to do so. And I don't know

(57:09):
if that signals more of, you know, just to focus
on fixing a weakness that you know, they need to
develop as their season goes along, or if it's a
little bit of an admission that you know, on film,
teams are seeing a team, you know, our opponents are
seeing the Bills as a team who once again is
prioritizing stopping the pass and saying, yeah, try to run

(57:31):
on us, you know, because we're going to do it
to you. And they know that they're going to have
to be successful if they want to stay in the game.

Speaker 2 (57:38):
And furthermore, it'll speak a lot of volumes of a
Patriots rushing attack if they can't really generate much on
the ground consistently, if the Bills are selling out in
pass defense either. So that'll be interesting to watch because
if the Bills clean up the gap integrity issues some
of the tackling woes. It can't I'll be fixed overnight,
and I'm not expecting that, but even just a marginal
improvement from where they were last week, I think that

(58:01):
could be a difference maker in this game, because again
we're seeing a Patriots offense that has been able to
have success without the relief of a stable rushing attack,
but again against worse competition. I feel like the Buffalo
Bills have an opportunity to just again fortify the rush
defense without compromising how they sell out and coverage, and
all of a sudden, you might end up in a
much more advantageous position on the field where you're in

(58:22):
third and loll more consistently. There really isn't any threat
of someone out of the backfield, whether it's a screen
or a tunnel screen or something into the swing game
or anything like that, And I think that's where they
want to be.

Speaker 1 (58:34):
That's the world they want to live in.

Speaker 2 (58:36):
They want to put stress on them any way they
can and just get them into true passing situations, which
I think this Bills team can have success against them,
and we will just have to see. I'm really excited
to watch it. I think that is a very big
part of this matchup is really ground game. Is the
Patriots rushing offense just not clicking yet and they start
this week and the Bills rushing defense has a lot
of concerns Or is it the flip side? Does the

(58:57):
Bills rushing defense clean these components up all of a
sudden because they maintain their integrity and they're not getting
pushed around. It puts a lot more strain on this
Pats offense in terms of their game plan and what
they were prepared to do versus now what they have
to do, And does that in turn reflect poorly on
the Patriots passing offenses? That put them in more of
a situation where they have to air the ball out
more and some of those metrics come down because they

(59:20):
have to air it out more and they get exploited.
Or are they really just that freaking good? Which I
think this is probably more of the truth. Are they
really just that good and they can get the ball
through the air if they need to. Again, I will
not sleep on Drake May, I will not sleep on
this team in general. But it is a matchup I'm
interested to watch out for, and I think Bills fan
should keep an eye on it too, Adam anything else
on defense before we get to the final topic of

(59:41):
tonight's show.

Speaker 1 (59:43):
No, let's do it. Let's get on. Let's right on
the last segment here. Yeah, I'm looking at my notes.
I'm like, oh wow, we actually talked about everything. Go us.

Speaker 2 (59:50):
So special teams has not been that special for the
Buffalo Bills. It's been kind of underwhelming in terms of Dboway,
they're sitting at twenty fourth and last week they were
sitting at twenty fourth. Now, this is interesting about the Patriots,
and it's just such an early early season thing. Patriots
DVOA on special teams last week was in the twenties.
I believe it was as low as twenty sixth. This

(01:00:11):
week their tenth, So they had a very big improvement,
and again one week Carolina Panthers team very much struggling.
It can inflate the metrics a bit, but there's something
to be said for the fact that the Bills also
went up against a not even just bottom tier like
the worst special teams even in the league by DVOA
last week and didn't improve at all. And if you

(01:00:32):
watched their performance, I mean, kick coverage hasn't been great.
The returns have been buying here and there, but they
just really haven't had crazy amounts of success in their
special teams yet. And I think a part of that
has to do with again new coach strategy, still learning
how to adjust to the new kickoff rules, a lot

(01:00:52):
of different layers to this that I think might lead
to some less than desirable results.

Speaker 1 (01:00:57):
But twenty fourth is still not good.

Speaker 2 (01:01:00):
Needs to be better, and it needs to be better
this week because I'll tell you one thing, Mike Rabol,
teams they played with their hair on fire in all
three phases, including special teams. You need to improve in
this regard this game, and I think it has to
start with their kicking coverage. So what do you think
about that, Adam?

Speaker 3 (01:01:13):
Yeah, I mean, you know, the thing about special teams
is that it becomes extremely important obviously when you know
you're playing white competition. You know, when you're playing teams
that are better than you. You know, the one thing
that's a beautiful thing about having Josh Allen and and
you know the roster that this team has is that

(01:01:33):
you know, you have the ability to have a little
bit more of grace while you're trying to deal with
all the growing pains that come with, like you said,
having a new Special teams coach and Chris Taber, you know,
having so many players in and out of the lineup
really trying to figure out their identity there, and and
and then also turnover players. You know, there were some

(01:01:55):
key players obviously who played big roles on special teams
last year who are no longer here one of them
that we're going to see next week or I'm sorry
this week this Sunday and in mac collins right and
and so you know what, to me, the most important
thing is, uh, you know, the thing some of the
positives I've seen is that they've been able to stay
resilient in at least you know, the plays that are

(01:02:18):
most important about putting points on the board, which is
the you know, the field goal kicking. Uh. You know,
even with the turnover of you know, punters changing holders. Uh,
you know, that side of things has been extremely consistent,
you know, even with the turnover that they've had there.
So I'm always nervous when a team is the thing

(01:02:41):
that scares me the most about Special teams is, uh,
do the teams that recognize the issues that you're having
there find ways to take advantage. How many block kicks
have we seen in the league this year? There've been
there have been a ton, right, I don't know if
we've seen any fake fake punts yet and league this year,
I can't recall. Have you seen any yet?

Speaker 1 (01:03:03):
I don't think so. I don't think so. These are
the things that wasn't memorable if they did, yeah, right, exactly.

Speaker 3 (01:03:11):
These are the things that I These are the things
I worry about when when a team is playing at
you know, a team that you know really doesn't have
anything to lose and everything to gain. These are the
things that I'd be looking out for because when a
team is kind of reeling a little bit on special
teams and trying to figure out their identity, that's when
someone comes in with a you know, with a hammer
and wax you over the head with with with a

(01:03:31):
play like that. You know, so you know, to me,
with how many players they have out, with how much
development there is, new coach and everything else, it's just
don't let it beat you, you know, on Sunday, don't
let it be the reason that you lose. And and
like I said, to reiterate, the positive thing and all
this is that they're making their kicks when they need
to make them, and as long as they continue to

(01:03:52):
do that and don't let any big plays kind of
kill them, you know they can keep working at it.

Speaker 1 (01:03:57):
Yeah, the field goal component has been great.

Speaker 2 (01:03:59):
Matt Brater has been everything you've asked of him in
the situation he's in, and I feel really good about him.

Speaker 1 (01:04:04):
In these moments.

Speaker 2 (01:04:05):
I mean, one shank kick against Miami, but apart from that,
he's been spotless. So I'm very thankful for that performance.
But I just think it needs to improve all the
more after last week because I think a big part
of not even just the Saints, but what teams can
do to this Bill's defense. If you're talking about concern
over how they're sustaining drives and how they're moving the ball,
the starting field position has to get better. That's really

(01:04:26):
where it comes from on both sides. And when I
say that, I mean our kick coverage has to stop.
Winning teams essentially get a touchback on their returns, and
our units when it comes to return and can't end
up in situations where they're starting from the ten or
even the fifteen. I think a big part of what
helped the Saints last week gain momentum on defense was
in part penalties from the Bill side, which you could

(01:04:46):
argue somewhere some had merit, some didn't, but those are
way more consequential when you're on your own side of
the field. Pin back deep, and I think the Bill
saw that, and it's what led to a lot of
stall drives on offense because they were playing from so deep,
had a ten or five yard penalty push them back more,
and there really wasn't much you can do on offense
to overcome that deficit without Josh Allen trying to make

(01:05:08):
a play, which he did attempt and subsequently turned the
ball over. Granted it was a really nice play from Sanker.
I think that that's where you need to win this
week is winning the field position game, because I think
if you want to talk about the things we just
did about the Bills defense, approaching this Patriots offense, as
far as Mitch Wishnowski, who's coming in for the first
time and punting in Buffalo for the first time, you

(01:05:29):
have to be able to pin these guys deep because
I think what you'll wind up doing is further eliminating
and already struggling rushing attack from ever having the opportunity
to prove itself, but putting again more strain on Drake
made to make a mistake. Have to execute perfectly when
you're pinning that far deep on your field. You're talking
about now everything has to be spotless, not even just
because we have to sustain the drive and there's way

(01:05:49):
more field to cover, but because an errant pass is
far more consequential starting from your own fifteen than it
is on the opposite side. Obviously, you don't want to
turn the ball over in general, but if I throw
an interception from my own ten, you're starting in field
goal range, you're starting borderline goal lines. So I mean
that matters a ton, and I think the Bills just
have to improve in this regard, especially against the Patriots

(01:06:09):
team that again they're coming into Buffalo with full eyes
on trying to take you down. I know people these
two teams might be at different stages in their respective
franchisees tenures, but this is a team that has all
the confidence in the world that they can come in
and take you down from your crown.

Speaker 1 (01:06:24):
Special teams has to tighten up.

Speaker 2 (01:06:26):
The tackling has to be better, The punt coverage has
to be better, the returns have to be better. They
have to start in better field position because a big
part of it too is for the bill side on offense,
sustaining drives. You get a lot better opportunity to do
it when you're starting in better field position as well,
and to run the ball, and to be a threat
when you're running, and to not have defenses sell out
as easily because they're not pinned back at the goal line.

(01:06:47):
Starting from your thirty five and being able to utilize
James Cook from there and open up your playbook a
bit more and prevent them from doing theirs all the
same and your opposite side of your special teams, that
matters so much and they have to be better at it.
So I mean, watching that Saints game, it was really disappointing.
I thought they would have a much better game.

Speaker 1 (01:07:05):
They didn't.

Speaker 2 (01:07:05):
They didn't improve at all. This has to be the
week to do it, because a divisional game, special teams
matter is a ton Don't let them get any momentum.
This is how you could start it. That's really all
I have to say about it. Anything else you want
to add at them before we sign off?

Speaker 3 (01:07:19):
No, that's you know, that makes a lot of sense.
I mean the The only other thing I'd say is that,
you know, just kind of in looking at the average
starting field position, you know, if you look league wide
since the year two thousand, the twenty twenty five season
has the seventh highest average starting field position on average,
which is right around thirty one and change thirty one

(01:07:41):
yard line. You know, the Bills this season so far
averaging twenty nine point four. You know, so that's why
at least you know, for me, and I've heard Aaron
say this before too, to me special teams, it's always
about avoiding the big play, make the kicks, avoid the
big players that are detrimental to you. And when you

(01:08:03):
got Josh Allen back there, if you're starting field position
on averages two yards shy of you know where everyone
else is starting, you know, I think you're gonna be
all right.

Speaker 2 (01:08:11):
Yeah, it's not an end all, be all by any stretch.
They could still overcome. They did overcome it, you know
what I mean. They played in this game that they
just want I'm talking about eleven point win. But like
if we're talking about a team where you want it
to be buttoned up in a big matchup, this is
just an area of improvement. I see them really needing
to take the lead on and I hope they can
in this game. But again, two yards, Josh Allen can

(01:08:32):
make it happen. I don't have any doubt about that.
But there's a lot of pressure on them to do
it in that spot, and I would prefer I like
easy ball. I like watching them have fun. I like
watching them feel at peace with themselves when they run
these really fun physical concepts. So I just want to
close it off, Adam with just one final question for you,
and that's offense, defense, special teams, whatever you want to
prioritize your biggest matchups players units.

Speaker 1 (01:08:54):
I mean, what are you watching out for as we
head into Sunday?

Speaker 3 (01:08:58):
How many watching the bill SDBS? You know, I'm gonna
be I'm gonna be watching the I'm gonna be watching
the DBS versus Drake May. You know, I just think
the way that he's been throwing the ball, watching his
vision in particular, you know, some of the plays that
I've been seeing the all twenty two guys share about
the things that May is seeing on the field and
the throws that he's delivering to places that most quarterbacks,

(01:09:20):
you know, really even some that are technically not open,
but he's got the vision and the arm talent to
sling it into areas that you know most guys wouldn't
dare go. You know, that's what I'm gonna be paying
attention to. I always really love I mean, obviously, the
most fun games are when you're watching the best signal
callers back there doing their thing. And I think this

(01:09:42):
game is really going to be the start of a
long run of very enjoyable games between Drake May and
Josh Allen, and you know, I just hope our defensive
backs are up to the task. So that's what I'm mena,
That's what I'm gonna be watching.

Speaker 2 (01:09:55):
Yeah, definitely worth watching, and I agree it's a tough
challenge for them against them ascending quarterback that has made
high level throws very early on in his career. We're
in for years of pain in the ass matchups, folks, Like,
that's just what this is. Like, It's he's great. I
never disliked the player. I never disliked him. I just
hate where he is. That's kind of what it is

(01:10:15):
for me. And you're putting your dbs in a lot
of stress too, because I mean, you talked about some
of the injuries. For Dorian Strong is another player that
they've always ruled out, So you're likely seeing maybe one
of JaMarcus Ingram or Dane Jackson take the mantle here.
You know, Trey White hasn't been bad at all. I
think he's been fine, but you're still testing him.

Speaker 1 (01:10:33):
Vertically. You're talking about Christian Benford, who's on something.

Speaker 2 (01:10:36):
Of a down year, although I would argue it's kind
of a product of the rest of the secondary and
again putting him in a bit more conflict if he
doesn't have safety help over the top or the safety
help can't get there on time.

Speaker 1 (01:10:46):
I think that's been getting better each week though.

Speaker 2 (01:10:48):
I think they're becoming more stabilized than the secondary, especially
with how each week it seems Cole Bishop is improving
and kind of playing more soundly, and I think that
can get better there in pass coverage. So that is
a very interesting matchup. And I guess for me, when
I talk offense, it's really whatever receiver. You know, Christian
Gonzales is in shadowing because again the Carlton Davis is

(01:11:10):
another equally as impressive dB. He's still very talented. He's
still going to be a very difficult matchup in manner zone.
So I want to see if they can exploit either
one of those corners. If Gonzales isn't one hundred percent healthy,
can they exploit him. It's going to be a tough test.

Speaker 1 (01:11:24):
It is.

Speaker 2 (01:11:25):
Second, their corners are not the problem. I think it's
really their safeties that kind of hamper them down. So
how can you exploit that if it can't be the cornerback?
So are you talking about Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kinkaid
out of thirteen personnel where you match him up as
a bit of a receiver across the field and just
try to get him in space. That's really what I'll
be watching out for on offense and then defense. I
mentioned it before, it's Joey Bosa against Will Campbell. That's

(01:11:47):
probably my biggest matchup, just because I think the net
positive of Joey Bosa having success in that matchup if
he is matched up with Will Campbell often in this game,
which I suspect he would be, That to me is
going to be huge because again, I just think that
creates a chain effect for the rest of the Patriots offense.
If you cannot feel comfortable behind your left side for

(01:12:07):
a ready quarterback. Joey Bosa's creating pressure. It puts pressure
on you to now have to kind of drive yourself
out or maybe force yourself to rush your throw and
make a play a little bit faster. There really is
a lot here that I think can the Bills could
take advantage of if they have this matchup in hand,
and if they don't, how do you win in other
ways that will be tested immediately.

Speaker 1 (01:12:26):
Is it Dion Walker? Are you going to put him
in more pass rush situations?

Speaker 2 (01:12:30):
Are they going to end up in those pass rush
situations because of this rushing attack and ken it sustained?
Is Daikwon Jones going to have a big game because
he seemed to have improved himself this year.

Speaker 1 (01:12:38):
Is Greg We're so going to emerge.

Speaker 2 (01:12:39):
I think you have more questions and answers if Joey
Bosa's matchup doesn't go well, and I think if they
end up in more pass rush situations. He's got to
win against a very talented rookie tackle who will be
in the sleep for a long time. But Adam, I'm excited.
It's going to be a hell of a game. People
might be sleeping on him. But I'm not eight and
a half feels fair. I think it should be something
a bit more shallow. But I'm hoping for a Bills

(01:13:01):
win and I think they can do it. You know,
I still think it's a Patriot team that's early on
in its development curve. I think they're gonna get their
punches on the Bills, but I think this Sunday, the
hostile environment will lead them to miscues. I think the
fumbling issue will rear its ugly head because the Bills
generate these turnovers. Ye, and I think they'll take advantage
of that. I think it should be a game they win,

(01:13:23):
but I anything can happen, and I'm excited to watch it.

Speaker 3 (01:13:26):
Yeah, I'm looking forward to it. I'll give you one
more parting stat before we leave.

Speaker 1 (01:13:29):
How's that sound.

Speaker 2 (01:13:30):
I love it when as many target stats as you
want to give me, Adam.

Speaker 3 (01:13:34):
When the Bills target wide receivers particular, they're ranked seventh
in the league and yards per attempt the Patriots twenty first.
I thought that was surprising with how good Drake May's
numbers are. To me, that signals that if they're not
thrown to the tight ends, it's a lot underneath. You know,
it's it's it's it's not much downfield, it's you know,

(01:13:57):
but he's been successful at it. So it's going to
be about coming downhill quick, locking them up. And you know,
I think at the end of the day, like you said,
you know, eight eight and a half points, I think
they I think they covered in this game on Sunday,
but late, you know, they cover late, and the game
feels closer than maybe the final scorer shows a little

(01:14:20):
bit like the Saints game.

Speaker 1 (01:14:21):
Yeah. Maybe, so I fully suspect that I would bet under.

Speaker 2 (01:14:25):
I just bet under because I'm a paranoid fan, but
also because I just think this is going to be
a divisional game. Divisional games are never lopsided. Well retrack
that they can be lopsided. But for the Bills, I
think they're going to play him tight. I think it'll
be a very competitive matchup. I actually just looked up
step On Diggs specifically his snap counts and also where
they're aligning him, and it's very similar. I mean, he's
got eighty so far out wide and sixty one in

(01:14:47):
the slot. But I think his out wide snaps, as
he gets healthier, will become a bit more threatening downfield.
But even if they're not having him as a healthy
decoy is problematic. We've seen it in Buffalo and how
they've employed him. I think a big thing for them
is again sustaining drives and their third down conversions that
if their rushing attack isn't going they wind up in
so often that they need.

Speaker 1 (01:15:07):
Those receivers to get open in quick space.

Speaker 2 (01:15:09):
Maybe it's a third and five, a third and six,
like guys like Digs being able to be the decoy
vert threat, so you can have a guy like Pop
Douglas or maybe Booty be one of those slot receivers
that can get you a first down. I think that's
probably why you're seeing that metric a bit. But I
feel like this Patriots team does have the capacity to
go downfield because I think Booty has emerged this year

(01:15:30):
as a very viable deep threat.

Speaker 1 (01:15:31):
We know what Digs can be when he's healthy.

Speaker 2 (01:15:34):
I just wonder if that's their game plan or if
they decide not to test it, because the Bills might
be running a bit more again Cover three or maybe
Cover three buzz or something along those lines where they
try to just decoy it and bait them into making mistakes,
so they're really just going to try and keep it
short sweet above the sticks two quock sustained drives and
see if they can win that way. So I'm excited
as a hell of a stat at them. You brought

(01:15:55):
a ton of stats and you brought the juice tonight. Man,
it was awesome talking to you on here again. You're
an awesome person. I appreciate the heck out of you
for again the tickets, but also just being a really
welcoming and fun insightful presence in our space and Cover
one and in the bill space. And I want you,
with the time you have here before we sign off,
to tell the good people what you got going on,
where they can find you and anything else you'd like

(01:16:17):
to share.

Speaker 3 (01:16:18):
Yeah, guys, so you can find me on Twitter. That's
kind of where I, you know, think out loud as
the way I describe it. When I'm digging up stats.
If I find something interesting, I'm just going to put
it out there. My handle's at Adam Pencil p E. N.
S el So I spelled my last name, so you
can find me there. Otherwise, I'm in the Cover one
discord every now and then, sharing things excited about the
Sabers because I love chasing my tail. We'll see how

(01:16:40):
that goes this year. But we got a great channel
of Sabers fans in there as well, so you know,
you know, give me a follow, say hello. If you
ever have questions about anything, you want me to dig
something up for you, you know, shoot me a tweet,
send me a message, you know, let's talk Bill's Football's.

Speaker 2 (01:16:58):
Last name is Pencil because he's so sharp man, and
you could see it here on our show tonight. This
man brings the juice, brings the stats, and again, well
worth your time. I've learned a lot from following Adam.
The data is always on point. And I don't just
say that because he's in cover one. He's providing every
metric you can find, good or bad, to really reflect
how this Bills team is performing in all phases. So
if you're someone who's trying to learn more, trying to

(01:17:20):
find more data points to cite when you're arguing with
other fans, or just to know about how the team
is doing, Adam is the guy to follow. He will
give you plenty of information. It's well worth your time
and Adam, again, thank you so much, really appreciate it
to all of you that are in the chat tonight
before you sign off, I need you to do me
just a couple of favors. It's like this video on YouTube.
If you're watching on YouTube, share it with your Bills

(01:17:42):
fan friends. Because it doesn't just help me, It doesn't
just help Adam. It helps our whole network. It helps
us all grow to get into the algorithm of more
Bills fans that will like mind it, such as yourself
and want to find more content. So do that and
help us out. Subscribe to the channel. We are over
one hundred k strong and growing. We've been putting out
content on every show from the Air Raid Hour on Mondays,

(01:18:04):
Disguised Coverage with Anthony on Tuesday, the Film Room, which
I'm producing on Wednesday, Greg and Aaron going live on
the C one Buff podcast on Wednesday evenings, sometimes Thursdays,
sometimes Tuesdays. Oftentimes if it's not on a Wednesday, you
can suspect Greg will be in a suit in a
hotel in some random part of the country, but they
are bringing the juice.

Speaker 1 (01:18:21):
When they go live.

Speaker 2 (01:18:23):
It is a really good time to be a member
of Cover one as well. If you are interested, check
the description of this video, you can find the one
pass sign up link and for just sixty gold the
balloons a year, you will have access to everything that
we provide, including our premium discord that has a ton
of channels for you to check out and engage with
our content creators, but also some access to some cool
things such as our T shirt that we have partnered

(01:18:45):
with twenty six shirts to create. It's well worth your time,
so if you've been on the fence about it, this
is your sign to go do it.

Speaker 1 (01:18:51):
Sign up.

Speaker 2 (01:18:52):
My name is Joe de Rosa and you can find
me on Twitter x at show underscore to Rosa. While
I'm not bringing as much data as Adam, I bring
the memes and the vibe and I'm just someone who
just kind of really posts whatever. I don't really have
much of an identity on there, but if you see
I'm a chop holding a rock, that's me, So go
check me out on Twitter or not totally fine too.

Speaker 1 (01:19:14):
Again, thank you guys so much.

Speaker 2 (01:19:15):
We'll be back next week with another episode, hopefully another
victory recap, but for tonight, enjoy the rest of your Friday.

Speaker 1 (01:19:22):
Be responsible this weekend. Don't do anything dumb. It's fall.
Why would you be stupid during fall? Just because it
is fall doesn't mean you should fall in life. I
don't know.

Speaker 2 (01:19:31):
I'm short circuiting, so I'm just gonna hit the end
stream button and tell you all good night. See as
soon and as always, go Bills, take care, everybody, Go Bills,

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Bills Week 5 Preview: Another Divisional Test vs. An Improved Patriots Team | UR

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Bills Week 5 Preview: Another Divisional Test vs. An Improved Patriots Team | UR