"US Housing Market Transition: Inventory Surge, Cautious Buyers and Sellers"

The US housing industry in the past 48 hours reflects a market in transition, characterized by increased inventory, modest price growth, and both buyers and sellers exercising caution. Latest data shows housing inventory has surged nearly 25 percent from this time last year, marking a post-pandemic high, yet overall sales remain stagnant due to persistent high mortgage rates and elevated prices. The National Association of Realtors reported a 2 percent rise in existing home sales from June to July, with the median price edging up to 422,400 dollars—just 0.2 percent above last year—making this the 25th consecutive month of slight year-over-year price gains.

However, market activity remains uneven. Sellers who do not feel price pressure are increasingly pulling listings rather than reducing prices; for every 100 homes listed in June, 21 were delisted, up sharply from 13 last year. In Miami, the trend is especially pronounced, where 59 homes were delisted for every 100 new listings last month, and fewer than 18 percent saw a price reduction. Sellers often prefer to wait, expecting that sustained high valuations may eventually justify their asking price.

Builders are scaling back new construction due to rising financing costs, softer buyer demand, and increased material costs from tariffs. Larger homebuilders and industry leaders are reacting by pausing or delaying projects to avoid excess inventory as the market cools. Consumer behavior shows buyers remain cautious; affordability is slowly improving as wage growth now outpaces home price increases, and buyers in some regions are getting slightly more options. Nonetheless, many prospective homebuyers continue to hold back, deterred by mortgage rates that remain stubbornly high, averaging around 6.5 percent for a 30-year fixed mortgage.

Experts anticipate that a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September could spur activity, but most forecasts for 2025 predict only modest national price increases of 1.5 to 2 percent, a significant slowdown from the rapid gains of recent years. Compared to prior months, supply is up, activity is stable or down, and sellers are more strategic, waiting for either lower rates or stronger offers before committing. Overall, the industry is at an inflection point as it awaits clearer signals on rates, inflation, and buyer confidence.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The US housing industry in the past forty eight hours
reflects a market in transition characterized by increased inventory, modest
price growth, and both buyers and sellers exercising caution. Latest
data shows housing inventory has surged nearly twenty five percent
from this time last year, marking a post pandemic high,
Yet overall sales remain stagnant due to persistent high mortgage

(00:22):
rates and elevated prices. The National Association of Realtors reported
a two percent rise in existing home sales from June
to July, with the median price edging up to four
hundred twenty two thousand, four hundred dollars, just zero point
two percent above last year, making this the twenty fifth
consecutive month of slight year over year price gains. However,

(00:45):
market activity remains uneven. Sellers who do not feel price
pressure are increasingly pulling listings rather than reducing prices. For
every one hundred homes listed in June twenty one were delisted,
up sharply from thirteen last year. In Miami, the trend

(01:06):
is especially pronounced, where fifty nine homes were delisted for
every one hundred new listings last month, and fewer than
eighteen percent saw press reduction. Sellers often prefer to weight,
expecting that sustained high valuations may be unusually significant proportions
of the same season break. Builders are scaling back new

(01:26):
construction due to rising financing costs, softer buyer demand, and
increased material costs from tariffs. Larger home builders and industry
leaders are reacting by pausing or delaying projects to avoid
excess inventory. As the market cools, consumer behavior shows buyers
remain cautious. Affordability is slowly improving as wage growth now

(01:49):
outpaces home price increases, and buyers in some regions are
getting slightly more options. Nonetheless, many prospective home buyers continue
to hold back to de turred by mortgage rates that
remain stubbornly high, averaging around six point five percent for
thirty year fixed mortgage expertanse anticipate that a potential federal

(02:11):
reserve rate cut in September could spur activity, but most
forecasts for twenty twenty five predict only modest national price
increases of one point five to two percent, a significant
slow down from the rapid gains of recent years. Compared
to prior months, supply is up, activity is stabler down

(02:31):
and sellers are more strategic, waiting for either lower weights
or stronger offers before committing. Overall, the industry is at
an inflection point as it awaits clearer signals on rates,
inflation and buyer confidence.