Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
And so were you spending on Black Friday or were
you recovering from Thanksgiving or maybe doing a little of
both and just sitting in front of the computer taking
advantage of online AI driven selection and cyber deals that
you didn't have to wait for Cyber Monday to get.
Take a look at this three x from twenty fifteen
to twenty twenty five, So in ten years, it's amazing
(00:22):
we went three x and ten years. The total from
over three billion dollars to over eleven billion dollars in
Black Friday online sales over that period, which means you
hear about malls closing, stores closing, it's true, but it
doesn't mean that American is not spending its hard earned
(00:44):
dollars on gifts over Black Friday. It's very very real.
Now who's getting the benefit. Let's go take a look
at holiday spending in general now that we can see
what where Black Friday is going. So it's probably going
to be a pretty good retail fourth quarter, amazingly. So
the concern is it's going to be more in American
credit cards and more on BNPL which is by now
(01:04):
pay later, also known as buy now, poor later, because
the interest rates are high. So if you miss those
payments on BNPL, it's very, very bad. And there have
been historically high delinquency rates in each of the last
two first quarters. As BNPL people are waiting for American
shoppers to make payments and a lot of them are late.
(01:25):
So if this is driven by some BNPL and then
we're late in January for payments, that's bad for the economy.
It means a good holiday leads to a tight first
quarter as spending goes down and delinquencies are up, and
that's bad. But let's go to what's good when it
comes to holidays. Who's on the Naudier nice list. I'll
(01:46):
tell you who's on the nice list. Mom, Mother's Day.
Take a look at Mother's Day was up in twenty
twenty five. Father's Day is behind. They spend actually twenty
percent more on Mom than Dad. That's probably the right
way to do its u're spending. Believe it or not.
There's still is a lot of easter spending, also known
as spring break spending, as people are out looking for
deals as the summer is approaching. Valentine's Day, we know
(02:09):
what that's all about. That's pretty amazing. Take a look
at Valentine Day is as big as Easter and just
a little bit beyond Dad. It's one single day and
it's disproportionately represented by restaurant spending. Then you have Halloween Halloween,
where we spend half as much his Mother's Day is
spent on Halloween. It's pretty amazing when you think of
(02:32):
that's candies, costumes, and parties and event compared to the
gifts that are bought a retail for Mom. I guess
that's the way it goes. And then we get to
the winter holidays Christmas, Hanukkah, and Festivus for the rest
of us, for those of you who know what I'm
talking about, where a billion dollars will be spent, and
that doesn't include New Year's because this is the cutoff
here on the data is December thirty first, and it's
(02:53):
amazing what gets spent over the winters. That's fourth quarter,
and that's what's driving And so you can see Black
Friday driving in because November one, December thirty first, Black
Friday is right about there. It's halfway through the spend
and that is the story of Black Friday. Hopefully this
is sensible spending and credit card balances aren't through the roof,
and BNPL isn't going to end up and be in
(03:15):
a deficit situation where payments are late, which hurts consumers
and also hurts the economy. Hopefully everybody bought nice gifts
for people they love and they were sensible in doing so.
One more thing tims the season to be planning Christmas
and New Year's with family, but more importantly to plan
next year for your business. If you're a CEO or
someone that works for a CEO, or maybe you are
(03:36):
a founder of a business, planning is key and it
never is more important than the fourth quarter where you
sit back and look at what went right, what didn't
this year, and pick a methodology to plan for next
year because those who plan have a much higher percentage
of making in and that David Consulting is here to help.
Every year we conduct the Business Planning Workshop, a wonderful
(03:59):
all day works up conducted by Patrick bet David in December.
That's the time to plan, so that's the time that
we're putting it together for you. There's a link down
below where you can find about all the things you're
going to learn and at the event you'll get your
hands on an incredible workbook to guide you through the process.
We hope to see you at the Business Planning Workshop
And so were you spending on Black Friday or were
you recovering from Thanksgiving or maybe doing a little of
both and just sitting in front of the computer taking
advantage of online AI driven selection and cyber deals that
you didn't have to wait for Cyber Monday to get.
Take a look at this three x from twenty fifteen
to twenty twenty five, So in ten years, it's amazing
(00:22):
we went three x and ten years. The total from
over three billion dollars to over eleven billion dollars in
Black Friday online sales over that period, which means you
hear about malls closing, stores closing, it's true, but it
doesn't mean that American is not spending its hard earned
(00:44):
dollars on gifts over Black Friday. It's very very real.
Now who's getting the benefit. Let's go take a look
at holiday spending in general now that we can see
what where Black Friday is going. So it's probably going
to be a pretty good retail fourth quarter, amazingly. So
the concern is it's going to be more in American
credit cards and more on BNPL which is by now
(01:04):
pay later, also known as buy now, poor later, because
the interest rates are high. So if you miss those
payments on BNPL, it's very, very bad. And there have
been historically high delinquency rates in each of the last
two first quarters. As BNPL people are waiting for American
shoppers to make payments and a lot of them are late.
(01:25):
So if this is driven by some BNPL and then
we're late in January for payments, that's bad for the economy.
It means a good holiday leads to a tight first
quarter as spending goes down and delinquencies are up, and
that's bad. But let's go to what's good when it
comes to holidays. Who's on the Naudier nice list. I'll
(01:46):
tell you who's on the nice list. Mom, Mother's Day.
Take a look at Mother's Day was up in twenty
twenty five. Father's Day is behind. They spend actually twenty
percent more on Mom than Dad. That's probably the right
way to do its u're spending. Believe it or not.
There's still is a lot of easter spending, also known
as spring break spending, as people are out looking for
deals as the summer is approaching. Valentine's Day, we know
(02:09):
what that's all about. That's pretty amazing. Take a look
at Valentine Day is as big as Easter and just
a little bit beyond Dad. It's one single day and
it's disproportionately represented by restaurant spending. Then you have Halloween Halloween,
where we spend half as much his Mother's Day is
spent on Halloween. It's pretty amazing when you think of
(02:32):
that's candies, costumes, and parties and event compared to the
gifts that are bought a retail for Mom. I guess
that's the way it goes. And then we get to
the winter holidays Christmas, Hanukkah, and Festivus for the rest
of us, for those of you who know what I'm
talking about, where a billion dollars will be spent, and
that doesn't include New Year's because this is the cutoff
here on the data is December thirty first, and it's
(02:53):
amazing what gets spent over the winters. That's fourth quarter,
and that's what's driving And so you can see Black
Friday driving in because November one, December thirty first, Black
Friday is right about there. It's halfway through the spend
and that is the story of Black Friday. Hopefully this
is sensible spending and credit card balances aren't through the roof,
and BNPL isn't going to end up and be in
(03:15):
a deficit situation where payments are late, which hurts consumers
and also hurts the economy. Hopefully everybody bought nice gifts
for people they love and they were sensible in doing so.
One more thing tims the season to be planning Christmas
and New Year's with family, but more importantly to plan
next year for your business. If you're a CEO or
someone that works for a CEO, or maybe you are
(03:36):
a founder of a business, planning is key and it
never is more important than the fourth quarter where you
sit back and look at what went right, what didn't
this year, and pick a methodology to plan for next
year because those who plan have a much higher percentage
of making in and that David Consulting is here to help.
Every year we conduct the Business Planning Workshop, a wonderful
(03:59):
all day works up conducted by Patrick bet David in December.
That's the time to plan, so that's the time that
we're putting it together for you. There's a link down
below where you can find about all the things you're
going to learn and at the event you'll get your
hands on an incredible workbook to guide you through the process.
We hope to see you at the Business Planning Workshop
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