Fed Odds Jump to 89 Percent: Rate Cut Christmas?

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now onto the FED odds. The odds are changing like
the stock market every day. It's getting pretty exciting and
pretty concerning simultaneously. And since we're talking about holidays and
we're talking about getting together with family members, we were
talking about the amount of spending on Black Friday, we
were talking about so many things. Let's talk about what
will the FED put under the Christmas tree on December tenth?

(00:22):
Right here? Will be at a quarter point or a
half a point. Well, we went to our friends at Calsheen.
We took a look at at the chart what they have,
and look what a ride we've been on. We are
sitting right now December first, where it looks like there
is an eighty nine percent chance we're going to get
a quarter point cut right here under the Christmas tree.
Or maybe it's a little early for Christmas, but it'll

(00:45):
be right there and we're happy. But look what we've
just gone through, not even a month ago. Here's November one.
We were getting into November. About November tenth, twelfth, all
the sudden things change. Look at this madness listening to
comments by the Fed, by Jerome Powell or other people
interpreting what Jerome Powell was saying, and we were not happy.

(01:07):
We were down here at about thirty percent. Right there,
it was looking like there would only be a thirty
percent chance of a twenty five basis point cut. We
need these cuts for mortgages and a lot of other things,
and interest on the national debt to go down. So
since that time we've seen a very steady bounce. So

(01:29):
it was really interesting. One week we went down, later
the week we went back up, and we've been going
all the way up to today. And so the Calshi
prediction market is saying eighty nine percent chance on a
cut based on seventeen point seven million dollars that has
been put up by the Calshie audience thinking that there

(01:50):
will be a twenty five basis cut in the FED
rate on December tenth. So there it is under the
Christmas Street. We're going to be unwrapping that present right there.
That will help the mortgage market a little bit, that
will help interest on the federal debt a little bit,
and hopefully it gives the economy time to continue to
recover as we try to move into the phase that

(02:10):
we're making jobs and building them to offset job cuts
and to generate energy in the economy. One more thing
tis the season to be planning Christmas and New Year's
with family, but more importantly to plan next year for
your business. If you're a CEO or someone that works
for a CEO, or maybe you are a founder of
a business, planning is key and it never is more

(02:33):
important than the fourth quarter where you sit back and
look at what went right what didn't this year and
pick a methodology to plan for next year because those
who plan have a much higher percentage of making in
and bet David Consulting is here to help. Every year
we conduct the Business Planning Workshop, a wonderful all day
workshop conducted by Patrick bet David in December. That's the

(02:56):
time to plan, so that's the time that we're putting
it together for you. There's a link down below where
you can find about all the things you're going to learn,
and at the event you'll get your hands on an
incredible workbook to guide you through the process. We hope
to see you at the Business Planning Workshop.