Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Fed holds rates steady for the fifth time this year,
but some officials think it's the wrong call. Okay, so
this is President Trump's best friend. For the last week.
They've been kicking it together, all right. They've been looking
at properties of spending three point one billion dollars on it.
Of course, patting each other in the back, you know.
(00:21):
Finally we saw a little bit of Powell's personality by
putting his tongue out when he did the did you
see when he did that? Or not very awkward, but
you saw the child side of him. He acted like
a twelve year old. It was interesting. First time ever,
here's Powell giving some good news to nobody.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
My colleagues and I remained squarely focused on actual colleagues,
just say you ate goals of maximum employment and stable
prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite heightened uncertainty,
the economy is still in a solid position. The unemployment
rate remains low, and the labor market is at or
near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal,
(01:01):
but has been running somewhat above or two percent longer
run objective in support of our goals, Today, the Feral
Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged,
the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation appear to
have risen, and we believe that the current stance of
monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a
(01:24):
timely way to potential economic developments.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
Okay, so listen, I'm not an economist by a long shot,
but he just said, we are kicking ass. Everything looks good,
but you never know, shit might hit the fans, So
to hell with all of you? Is that a right angle?
Do you know?
Speaker 1 (01:43):
A part of me is so happy he's not lowering
interest rates. Why do you know? Why? Why? Okay?
Speaker 3 (01:50):
But was that right for my assessment of what he
just said?
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Listen, he could have said this in five seconds, we
are not lowering slap in the back, and maybe you
could about it. Screw you Trump like something like that, right,
which is really what he wants. But you know, a
part of me hopes he holds out for the rest
of the year. Why. Let me tell you why, Because
to me, I would love for rates to not be
(02:14):
lowered till twenty twenty six. Why because I believe twenty
twenty six is going to be the greatest year of
our lifetime. Really, I'm telling you us two hundred and
fifty year birthday, Trump turns, eighty World Cups coming here,
and someone's going to have to keep lower on interest rates.
Market's going to go bam, oh wow. Money's going to
(02:36):
be made in every way.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
Dow record, every day, SMP record, Dow record, now, is
that record record, Bitcoin record, No, it's going to be
all of that whole. Powell, keep it going, buddy, Keep
doing what you're doing, because by twenty six, someone's going
to lower the rates, and when they do, it's going
to be boom like this the day the announcements made.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
When they lord rates, market's going to skyrocket. I just
hope it's not till twenty twenty six. And by the way,
to my real estate friends, don't come slashing my tires,
don't come protesting outside of our office. I'm telling you
right now. And no, I'm not buying a house right
now from you in case I don't call me. All
i'm telling you is I want the story, and I
think the story for twenty twenty six is going to
(03:21):
be awesome. Powell, keep it going, buddy. Please Tom your
thoughts on this end of Tommy, I'll come to you, well,
what was really funny.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
I was talking to somebody and watching it live yesterday
and I immediately tweeted out as soon as I heard
him say that. And I turned to the person that
was in my office and I said, did you hear that?
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Did you hear that? Click?
Speaker 5 (03:44):
What's that?
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Di minute?
Speaker 5 (03:45):
He said, rate stable, I heard a click?
Speaker 1 (03:47):
You know what it was?
Speaker 5 (03:48):
Trump hit capslock? I said, stand by, we're gonna get
We're gonna get tweets overnight. But what's interesting?
Speaker 1 (03:55):
Did he did he actually tweet about it? Or no?
Speaker 5 (03:58):
I have not seen I yeah?
Speaker 6 (04:00):
He truth Social this morning?
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Yeah, idiot?
Speaker 1 (04:04):
And more on?
Speaker 4 (04:07):
Was it in all caps?
Speaker 6 (04:09):
Stand by?
Speaker 3 (04:10):
Was it all caps?
Speaker 6 (04:11):
I don't caps in it?
Speaker 1 (04:13):
True?
Speaker 6 (04:13):
Social this morning?
Speaker 5 (04:15):
He is too late? Oh there there we go. So
I was prepping for podcasts. I didn't see that one
for seeing in the morning.
Speaker 6 (04:21):
Angry, too stupid and too political?
Speaker 4 (04:23):
All caps?
Speaker 1 (04:24):
So I was right.
Speaker 5 (04:26):
So what's what's very interesting is there were some people
out there that felt there should have been a cut now,
most notably folks at Schwab. Schwab published a paper yesterday
that said, look, the pace of consumer spending has slowed,
job openings have slowed, and we are seeing bulk layoffs.
Microsoft said that we have a reconstitution. Uh, we're reconstitutioning
(04:48):
our workforce.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
With AI.
Speaker 5 (04:51):
Nine thousand people were laid off. I believe it's three
weeks ago with Microsoft. So Schwab was saying, you know,
there's data out there that says that perhaps the economy
could use it right now. And what was interesting there
were two dissenters, one more prominent than the other. The
two dissenters said they disagreed that they thought a quarter
(05:13):
point now were on the FED Committee and it was
Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Now Michelle Bowman is more significant.
You know why, because Christopher Waller is known and has
been leaking and speaking to friends allegedly. And Christopher, I'm sorry,
I'm not trying to upset you, but your name's been
put in the hat by proxies and people around you.
(05:33):
You'd like to be the next chair of the FED.
And we all know why because you're serving us very
very well as part of the FED. You're a smart
person and you're like, hey, i'd like that next job.
That's completely normal. So people kind of discounted Waller. Well,
Waller's trying to do that to lean with Trump. Now,
who knows if that's the case or Waller just really
believes the economy could use a quarter point cut. Perhaps,
but Michelle Bowman to come out and say, hey, I
(05:56):
do think the economy is ready for a quarter point cut.
I thought that was very significant. And the CME FED
Watch tool, which I watch a lot, and I also
keep my eye on what's called the dot plot. And
for those of you scoring at home, these are just
tools for people are monitoring the FED, and I do
it and talk about it so you don't have to.
The FED watch tool says we have a sixty eight
(06:18):
percent chance now of a twenty five basis point cut
in September, and another sixty five percent chance of a
twenty five percent cut in December. And the dot plot
is going to be updated right now. I think it's
stuck on its may update. That's where it is. And
then yep, and now CME has got a couple different
(06:39):
audiences that it tracks, and there's an audience that Rob
just put up that thinks there's a sixty percent chance.
So that's what's going on now. People talk about mortgages
a lot. Affordability in housing is tied to the price
of that house because the price you pay dictates to
the property tax, and property taxes have gone way up
for consumers since twenty twenty one twenty two because the
price of the house went up. Then to ensure that
(07:02):
your homeowners insurance goes up because you're ensuring a more
valuable property. But people are forgetting so interest rates can
help unthaw the market, but you also have the Trump
budget needs these rates to come down for the interest
on the debt, which is in the Trump budget. Also,
Kelly Loffler has been doing a very good job at
(07:22):
SBA with her team. She needs interest rates to come
down because she's got money that she wants to loan out.
The small business now on more favorable rates with more
favorable programs for small business in America, and the Trump
administration is trying to get that out. So for everybody
that says, oh, bistock, you go on and on like this,
you've did. The home values are making it expensive. Home
(07:43):
values are part of affordability. I get it, Property taxes, insurance,
I get it. But the interest rates is sort of
the entry costs to get in there, and that will
help thought. But there's other things that are going on
there that are very important to the administration that they
want the.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
Rates to come down. What do you think about the story.
Speaker 6 (07:59):
Well, I understand why President Trump is frustrated, and I
think he let it be known, a total loser and
our country is paying the price. President Trump hates to
see America in any way lose or what he feels
is losing everything under his control. Is America winning right now? Economically,
they said the tariffs were gonna cause some kind of apocalypse.
(08:20):
That didn't happen. Real wages up, GDP up. Things are
looking good. They said when we started deporting illegal aliens
and we weren't going to have a workforce, and that
everything was going to collapse. No one was going to
pick the vegetables. Okay, that has yet to happen. Trump's
instincts have been correct. This is the last thing where
he's like, I got the big beautiful bill, I'm giving
no tax on tips, overtime social security.
Speaker 5 (08:41):
Now I need this.
Speaker 6 (08:42):
This is the final piece of the puzzle, and it
frustrates him, and I get it. I love your optimism
about twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7 (08:48):
By the way, I.
Speaker 6 (08:48):
Think that's great. We can hold on till then, I think.
But I understand Trump's frustration. And to your point, the
small businesses that are like things are looking good, we
want to expand, we want to hire more. We're so
excited right now. They are trumping at the bit to
get going, and President Trump wants to see that for them.
So it's frustrating for him. But I think it's a
(09:09):
game of chicken, and Powell doesn't want to be the
one who caves to Trump.
Speaker 5 (09:14):
Right and costing our country trillions of dollars. That's the
interest in the debt that's part of the Trump budget.
Speaker 7 (09:19):
Yeah, Adam, So there's so much conversation about Trump being
a dictator. Trump's an authoritarian and he's going to be
a king. He can't even control his own appointed FED chairman.
Let's not forget about that. For all the people out
there that think that Trump is just some authoritarian dictator,
he can't even convince the person that he put in
(09:41):
place as the FED chairman to lower rates, even after
calling him out, calling him a loser, calling him stupid,
calling him too late, saying that he's the worst person
for the job. This is why I love America, because
Jerome Powell will look at Trump and be like, yeah,
I don't really care what you have to say, buddy,
Actually respect that that do. I think that it's time
to lower interest rates possibly. You know, the Fed has
(10:04):
what two main jobs, to cool inflation, which is at
two point seven percent their target rate is two percent,
and to keep America working and make sure that the
unemployment basically stays where it is right now. Don't look now,
but America is doing pretty damn good. All the talk
in the spring about America going into recession, that conversations
(10:24):
over stock markets at basic all time high, Bitcoin at
all time high, GDP per capita, incredible, strong dollar consumer confidence,
the VIX is very low. The Fed fund rate right
now is what at four and a half percent, Prime
rates at seven and a half percent. The United States
economy is the envy of the world. And I think
Jerome Pal as much as Trump hates him, kind of
(10:45):
knows what he's doing. I just don't know if this
is personal political or if it's a straight economic But
we'll wait and see what happens in September.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Right, Yeah, I mean, look to me, even though Thomas
and there's two more to sixty five percent chance September
and bless you one more in December. I'm hoping it's
just one instead of two, and the president has to
realize he's going to be president for three and a
half more years. Okay, closer to three years now, sir,
(11:12):
I know, but it's still three years and five months.
But he's gonna be in there for nearly three and
a half more years. Midterms are not till when November. Okay,
so you imagine they do only one rate increase a
rate to cut in December, and then the market goes
off in the year of midterms record breaking. Guess what's
(11:35):
gonna happen with House? Guess what's gonna happen with flipping
some seats. I actually would like the momentum to not
happen till we get closer to midterms. Truly, I like
it to not happen till we get closer to because
nobody if you look at the market like hey my
four mon case of hey am I selling? Hey my bitcom? Dude,
I don't want to do anything. Let me keep from
I'm not gonna sad more Republican, but we're gonna say quie,
(11:55):
I'm gonna know that's what's gonna happen if the market's
doing good. So he's got time. You were asking about
the latest polo shirts that are coming up. Uh, it
took us a few months to get him there finally,
and I wore one of these. Everybody was asking, what
did you get these Vitama polo shirts? They're right there.
We got them in brown, black, white, gray, and another white.
There's a bunch of them on here for those because
(12:15):
it's hot. Yesterday, we flewing from Orlando. We're on a
flight flying back on this private jet and we're asking
the pilot, Hey, can you turn on the AC? I
can't turn on the AC. Mario makes the mistake of asking.
The guy says, I heard this is a this is
a mock. What did he ask him?
Speaker 3 (12:31):
He says, And the guy was like, yeah, one point five.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
I was actually got one point And the next thing
you know, we get on the Gender Discover Whom we
start doing all this stuff, showing off. I'm like, what
is this guy doing On the way back, we're flying low,
he says, I can't turn on the AC. I get
off the plane.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Were remember what I look?
Speaker 1 (12:49):
I get off the plane. My entire shirt is flipping,
you know, drenched and this is why Tommy just announced
she's moving to Florida because she loved here. But for
some of you guys that are in the heat, you
want to wear a Polo shirt and have the victim
and Giron, go place your order at VT merch dot com.
We did not order too many of these, but if
(13:10):
you want to get him, go to VT merch dot
com place your order. Support them. We were at Orlando
at the Gaylord event. Can now wait to see all
of you guys at the Wall conference. If you enjoy
this video, you want to watch more videos like this,
click here, and if you want to watch the entire podcast,
click here.