2/9/25: More detailed Discussion of the Winter Storm This Week

More thorough discussion regarding this week's winter storm to hit the Midwest including Chicago. In this episode we explain what the upper limit potential is in both qpf and snow to water ratio. We also touch upon the upcoming weekend storm. The imagery shows 8 day snow totals for Chicago according to European computer model Sunday evening 2/9. The 8 day period covers Monday 2/10 - Monday 2/17/25.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Good evening of this Sunday evening, February ninth. You're listening
to Weather with enthusiasm. This is your weather podcaster, Weather enthusiasts.
I'm Collefton. We're going to be discussing two major snowstorms
that are expected to develop this week across the Midwest
and track across the Midwest, three winter storms in all.

(00:24):
The first one, however, is a minor system, producing probably
less than an inch. It's the second two that have
access to Gulf moisture. We're just going to speak a
little bit more on the details, a little bit more
detailed than the previous episode. Storm system develops surround the
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma area twenty nine point six. It moves
east northeast into the Indianapolis area, continues on its track northeast. Normally,

(00:50):
the National Weather Service tells us that this would not
bring accumulating snow to Chicago. We're just a little bit
too far northward. However, with the playouts of this storm,
the synoptic weather setup of this particular storm, we'll be
bringing accumulating snow into the Chicago area. The Lincoln, Illinois
National Weather Service tells us what the absolute max is

(01:12):
on this storm. So we have computer models telling us
that the QPF to water equivalent is arranging from a
third of an inch to seven tenths of an inch.
So if we put the max at seven tenths of
an inch, and then the snow to water ratio is
generally a ten to one twelve to one, but we
do have some models saying a fifteen to one. So
you take the seven tenths of an inch and a

(01:34):
fifteen to one, it gives us a ten point five
inch max for areas which get hit by the bulls eye.
Should the bulls eye remain south of Chicago, the bullseye
moves into the Chicago area, so then we also would
have to deal with link effects. No, but realized ten
point five inches is the absolute max, So that's you know,

(01:54):
chances are we're going to be seeing less than that.
And that's even for areas a little bit. So bullseye
looks to be sounds to me like it's a little
bit south of Chicago. If it wasn't for the lake,
the lake might extend that bullseye. So for right now,
the National Weather Service has high confidence in a minimal
of three inches of snow. Moderate chances for a six

(02:18):
inch snowfall or more, tells us the link in Nebraska
National Weather Service, So we're looking at you know, when
you deal with a six inch minimal, you could push
those totals up towards nine inches. The three inch minimal
is like a three to six inch thing. So in general,
climatologically speaking, these types of storms produce the bullseye of

(02:42):
six to twelve inches, and Chicago tends to end up
in the three to six inch range. As we've spoken
about before. Next storm system, the Northern Indiana National Weather
Service tells us that has access to more moisture Gulf
of Mexico or Golf of America, whichever one is being

(03:02):
called right now, copious amounts of golf moisture, especially for
the weekend system. Also, the surface slow is significantly stronger
with this upcoming system over the weekend, so a lot
more potential with that storm system, tells us the Northern
Indiana National Weather Service. Regarding Lake effect snow, some of
the models are dealing with pushing the Lake effect snow

(03:25):
into central east central Wisconsin. For the first system, the
Milwaukee National Weather Services dealing with that, it seems like
any lake effect snow will be really short lived in
the Chicago area from System number one, more so in
northern Indiana. Perhaps a little bit of lake enhancement from
System number one tells us the National Weather Service, we

(03:47):
don't have much details regarding the second system for this
weekend other than there's more moisture and it's a stronger
storm system. Thank you for listening. I wish everybody a
wonderful week, have fun, and to stay safe regarding these
two upcoming winter storms.