Chuck’s Commentary - Nobody “Wins” A Shutdown + Israel’s Popularity With American Public + Top 5 Governor’s Seats Most Likely To Flip - The Chuck ToddCast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hello there, Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast.
Full disclosure because you're seeing that, Hey, you're not in
your normal studio. No, I am not. I'm on the
lovely campus of the University of Southern California, or as
my friends in Columbia, South Carolina would say, the USC
of the West. I am out here. I got to

(00:25):
participate in a meeting of the Big Ten government relations staff.
That's right, if you forgot the USC is in the
Big Ten, and so we got the host SUSPENI. It
was actually quite interesting, quite fun, and I got to
give a shout out to the Big Ten more so
than the other conferences. Though I'm not saying the other
conferences aren't trying to create non athletic sort of collaborative

(00:49):
efforts here, but the Big Ten does seem to be
more aggressive and better at having non athletic collaboration between
the schools and it only you know, it's sort of
if you're going to create these super conferences, you know,
figure out ways to take advantage. I mean, if you're
the ACC. Hey, guys, you got some incredible elite universities

(01:12):
from Duke to Miami to Georgia Tech to Stanford to
cal to SMU and ton in between. These are this
is an opportunity. Bcs are another rising school. Syracuse is great.
You know, take a page from how the Big ten
is operating. SEC could could benefit in the same way.

(01:32):
My understanding the Big twelve is trying to figure out
how to how to create some sort of some sort
of collaboration. So, as many of you know, I teach
adjunct and the scholar in residence at the USC DC campus.
So it does afford me the opportunity to come out
to La once or twice a year for some of

(01:53):
my USC duties. And so that's where we're coming from today.
As you know, most Wednesdays, I want to lean more
into my campaign roots, my political junkie roots. So I'll
have a later in this broadcast the top five list
on the top five most likely governor seats to flip
that I'm going to. It's both twenty five and twenty six.

(02:14):
It will include the two races talking about now, and
I yes, I will have a lot more to say
about Virginia like I did on Monday there. I think
there's definitely a lot more to say there. But I thought, look,
I want a few words on what we're dealing with
right now. The shutdown is still here. I told you
at the beginning of this shutdown debate that perhaps the

(02:36):
entity that had the most power to end this shutdown
might be the air traffic controllers and TSA agents and will.
Already we're seeing the impact of an increasing number of
air traffic controllers whose next paycheck is in jeopardy on
October fourteenth. Sickouts are already slightly up a bit at

(02:56):
a faster pace. I was out here in California, it
was a big breaking news alert on all the TVs
when I was in the wonderful Annenberg Journalism School newsroom.
They have a terrific sort of hub newsroom looks looks
like any major TV network that you would walk into.
And the big breaking news on the local California news
stations was the Burbank Airport was suddenly going to have

(03:16):
major flight delays due to air traffic control issues. There's
if you go on social media now you know that
Nashville is experiencing this. We've seen Newark, which seems to
have constant issues with that as well. So while I'm
not going to sit here and tell you the you know,
I was, I was sort of I'm going to stick

(03:38):
to my initial prediction that we wouldn't that this shutdown
would likely end by this weekend. But let's just say
I'm not sure I have a winning ticket on that
bet right now, because I do think both sides have
convinced themselves thanks mostly to their you know, the fact
that we have a siloed information ecosystem that they're making

(04:01):
that somehow they're winning and somehow this is working for
them and they're not losing anything on this so until
there's real pain, and I do think the air traffic
controller issue is something that likely will penetrate both information ecosystems,
the left wing one and the right wing one, because
everybody travels. And this gets back to my initial rant

(04:23):
on how this is a ridiculous feature of the US system.
There is no constitutional amendment that says appropriations no longer
can be used to pay people if Congress can't meet
a deadline. This is no way to run a company,
let alone a country. Okay, the fact that we are
putting the lives of thousands in danger travel around air

(04:48):
let alone being just simply disruptive to their lives, screwing
up people's job interviews, screwing up people's emergency visits to
sick relatives, maybe they miss a funeral, all because of
this political theater. This stuff's important, what they're debating. I'm
not going to deny that. But the idea that we

(05:10):
simply shut down the government to have these debates is
just ridiculous. It shouldn't. This is not about who triggered
the shutdown. The shutdown shouldn't be allowed to happen, and
it is something that only Congress can easily stop this.
They have chosen, both parties have chosen not to allow

(05:34):
this to happen. And once again, by the way, the
power to open up the government is actually solely in
the hands of Republican senators. They waive the filibuster. Government
opens the second they finished voting. So do keep that
in mind. Now. I think it's arguably potentially a good

(05:55):
thing when it comes to I think to fill buster
not as it's used today, but the idea of one
is still something that that should be a feature of
the United States Senate. There's a better way to use it,
that's for sure. But again, Republicans could open the government tomorrow.
All they got to do is get rid of the philibuster.

(06:18):
They have the votes on their own to do it. Obviously,
the Democrats also have the power with their with just
handing over five vote five more Senate votes to do that.
But either way, I'm sorry. When you're disrupting people's lives,
you're not winning anything. I do think Democrats have certainly

(06:38):
gotten the attention of Republicans on the issue of healthcare.
But Republicans knew already that they were vulnerable on healthcare.
And you know it's possible. Here's the iordy to this.
If if, if this shut down a complic gives the
Democrats the ability, gives the Republicans the ability to say, oh,
they fixed healthcare in this compromise. The irony is that

(07:01):
the Democrats may have taken away one of their best
issues to use in the midterms. But I digress. But
before I get to a campaign update, I do think
I've been talked about the potential final end. I'm taping
on October seventh, so it seemed to be a good
time to check in on There's a lot of polling
that's been out there on Israel, not just in the

(07:23):
United States, but it's some polling in Israel, and it's
the polling in Israel, and I think a lot of
people haven't seen or heard about, so I thought I
would get there discuss a little bit of the polling
on how Israel has lost it's standing in the United
States and it's really starting Jewey roade across the board.
It certainly Israel still has more support on the right
than the left in this country, but it is eroding

(07:44):
generally more. It's really bb Well unpopularity is growing. He's
never been a popular guy here, but his unpopularity is growing.
But what's striking is how unpopular he is in the
state of Israel. And I will get to that, but
I do think it's you know, what have we learned
about Israel over the last two years. What's been the

(08:06):
sort of fallout from all of this? And I think
what's interesting is on the US relationship with Israel. I
want to associate myself with some comments that Ian bremer
Maide in his newsletter because I thought it was really smart.
You know, it's an interesting conundrum that Israel's in right now.

(08:26):
Israel under BB's leadership has never looked as powerful or
as alone. So many Western governments have embraced the idea
of Palestinian statehood, and there's in some ways, Israel has
one friend, the United States. That's it. It makes the

(08:47):
relationship with the United States that much more important to
any current or future prime minister of Israel. And it
gives the United States more leverage and arguably more global
responsibility for managing, if you will, or influencing or however
you want to put it, or the belief that they
have influence over Israel. But the is the Israeli government

(09:14):
has never been more tied and more in need of
US support and more lena. They have no other allies
like the United States nowhere even close. Not saying they
don't have other friends out there, but it's only due
to the United States that they have some Sunni Arab
states that are friends. But it's sort of like their

(09:36):
friends because of the United States. Whether they'd be friends
with Israel on their own as a whole other story.
But I thought that was an interesting piece of analysis
by In. You know, I like to frequently bring onto
the podcast as my international expert, one of the just
smarter global political scientists that are out there. But it's

(09:56):
true because as a military power, Israel now is the
power of the there's no there's no there's no, there's
no close second. It's Israel and everybody else. So they
have power. They're feared in the Middle East, and yet
it's out of fear, there's not there's less respect around

(10:20):
the world because of BB's leadership too. Anyway, let me
get into some of the polling, because I think some
of this is interesting and worth taking a look at.
So look, there's still giant this is first. Let's talk
about America's views of Israel in general, big part of
some split seventy percent. This is a Pew poll by
the way that I'm citing Q came out last week,

(10:42):
and there's this all this polling on on this side.
This is just the Americans. The pole of Israeli citizens
is by the Israeli Democracy Institute. Was conducted by the way,
in Arabic and in Hebrew, because they also mean there's
a lot of Israeli Arabs in the is Israeli population
as well. It was a large minority in the State

(11:04):
of Israel. But let me start with the US public opinion.
So first, the sort of predictable the Partisans split seventy
percent of Democrats or Democratic leaning independents view the Palestinian
people favorably. Just thirty seven percent of Republicans or Republican
leaners all those same views. The Israeli government is viewed
positively by fifty five percent of Republicans. Only eighteen percent

(11:26):
of Democrats view the Israeli government positively. On the Israeli people,
Democrats are evenly divided forty eight to forty eight favorable
unfavorable on the Israeli people. Republicans a much higher favorable
view of the Israeli people sixty seven percent. Eighty two
percent of Republicans and fifty six percent of Democrats view

(11:49):
the Palestinian authority unfavorably. So while there are fewer Democrats
that view An unfavorable, majorities of both parties view the
Palestinian authority unfavorably, and eight and ten Republicans and eight
and ten Democrats view AMAS unfavorably. But what's also interesting
is there is growing skepticism of Israel's operation in Gaza

(12:10):
over time. Thirty nine percent now say Israel has gone
too far in its military operation against Hamas. That's up
from thirty one percent at this same time in twenty
twenty four, and it was twenty seven percent in late
twenty twenty three, just after Hamas took those hostages on
October seven. And overall the Israeli government, which really is

(12:34):
bbe right, but the Israeli government, fifty nine percent of
America of Americans hold an unfavorable view of the Israeli government.
That is up from fifty one percent of last year. Look,
you can't get to fifty nine percent of Americans on
anything without having essentially pieces of all three of America's
sort of political tribes right, the left, center, and right.

(12:56):
And that is definitely the case there. Now let me
move to what we learned about the Israeli people, because
I think some of these numbers will surprise people, and
I think it's I say this as an American Jew,
you know we in some cases, I think folks that
are not familiar, you know, with there's plenty of diversity
of thought inside the American Jewish community, plenty of diversity

(13:19):
of thought among American Jews. On bb the individual or
the Israeli government of the Palestinian people, that nuance gets lost,
frankly in a lot of the conversation that takes place online,
which is as an American jew very frustrating to many
of us. Many of us and look, we disagree amongst ourselves.

(13:40):
We have plenty of debates in the Jewish community ourselves,
but we're pretty good at debating. We like debating, I
will tell you that. But this to me, I think
won't surprise American Jews, but this will surprise people who
are not familiar as familiar. Sixty six percent of Israelis
say it's time to end the war in Gaza. Sixty

(14:04):
six percent of Israelis folks. Okay, that is up thirteen
points from a year ago at this time, and another
the same essentially sixty six percent two thirds of the
country think Prime Minister Beating that Yahoo should take responsibility
for the security failures that led to the October seventh
attacks and resign. Okay, Now to split up that number

(14:24):
just so you know, it's about forty five percent who
believed he should resign immediately. Now there's a whole chunk
of Israelis that think that that BB. You know, it
was a security failure and he should take responsibility for this.
He's never taken responsibility for the lack of smart security
around October seventh. And then there's another fifteen percent who

(14:48):
believed that he should resign after the war is over,
finish the military operation and then resign. But it's pretty
clear two thirds sixty basically sixty six percent of the
population thing it is time for BB to leave the stage.
He's got to go. And I think it's I think
there is a belief and this happens in any wartime situation.

(15:10):
You know, this is not unique to Israel. Zelenski is
going to be facing the same thing. There's going to
be fatigue the population. There's going to be a belief
the population that in some ways there's going to be
too much scar tissue with that leader, and they're never
you know, and frankly, they may be so warped that
they see everything as something they got to go to
war to. And so just in general, you'll see there'll

(15:32):
be a similar situation in Ukraine where there'll be people
think it's time Brazilenski to go now. They may say
let's wait till after the war, don't change horses in
midstream type of mindset, which is something that many a
democracy goes through. But I just think in general, I
think it's I know this, I knew he was more

(15:53):
unpopular than popular in Israel. I was surprised that the
number would would be that high. This is worth in
a question again of the Israeli public. A majority of
the public believes that israel standing in the international arena
is worse today than it was before October seventh. Seventy
three percent of the overall sample believes this. And this
is across the board. Among Israeli Jews it's seventy six percent,

(16:17):
and among Israeli Arabs it is sixty percent. This is
also the view of the majority of each of the
three political camps within Israel. Those on the left, ninety
five percent of those in the Israeli left believe Israel's
international standing is worse today, eighty seven percent in the
political center, and even sixty nine percent in the political right.
And what is the main goal of this war right,

(16:39):
There's been, frankly a debate inside Israel what should the goal?
Is the goal to get all the hostages home or
is the goal to eradicate Hamas? Well. We've heard what
Biebe says, and certainly what his right wing government says.
They want to make it about Hamas, but that is
not where a majority of the Israeli public is sixty
five percent of the Israeli public believe the main goal
of the war in Godza today should only be bringing

(17:02):
the hostages home, hard stop, hard stop. And the share,
by the way of people that old those views has
actually grown since January of twenty twenty four among both
Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. And it's really not surprising.
There's fatigue, there's concern that they're frankly never going to

(17:22):
get home in time on that front. But it's I
just think here on this October seventh, we should reflect,
let's be hopeful that this is that we are potentially
at the end here. And you know, for all the
grief everybody, this is a case where Donald I don't

(17:44):
know if if another American president could be putting BB
in his place on this a little bit. This is
a case where Trump's using his sort of unique ability
to bully for good. In a certain sense, this is
not very good politics in general, it's not very good

(18:05):
diplomacy in general. But sometimes you know, BB and Trump
are very similar guys. They're clinging to power to avoid accountability, right,
They share a lot in common. They have gotten power
without having a majority support, which is easier to explain
in a parliamentary system a little harder to explain in
our system. The two of them do have a lot

(18:28):
in common, but it also means Trump knows how to
Trump knows how to bully BB because he knows who
BB is. So at this point, let's just hope we
can turn the page, stop the killing, start the rebuilding,
and see if the page came truly get turned. In

(18:49):
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(19:53):
they win. Look, the issue of Israel whould still end
up being a huge player inside, particularly inside Democratic primary politics,
and I do want to make note before I get
it full fledged in my sort of political briefing of
the week. There's already an attack ad against a presidential

(20:16):
candidate twenty twenty eight potential presidential candidate airing in the
state of New Hampshire. The Pro Palestinian group im EU
Policy Project has a new ad on TV in New
Hampshire criticizing Kentucky Governor Andy Bashir. The ad hits Bashir
for declining to tell Politico in August whether he would

(20:40):
support blocking certain weapons sales to Israel. This has become
more and more Democrats have gotten on board this idea
of essentially blocking the sale of some military equipment and
some arms to Israel by the US government, and it
also attacks him for calling Israel a critical ally. In
a July Vogue interview, for what It's worth, the Bashir

(21:00):
it was interesting how Bashir is. What Bashir's spokespersonun told Politico,
President Trump can and should provide aid to address starvation
and suffering in Gaza, and he should do so in
a way that does not compromise the safety of the
Israeli people. I think what this is an interesting sort
of shot, political shot, if you will. Where I do
think there are there is a movement on the left

(21:22):
that wants to make this a litmus test issue inside
democratic primary politics. So they're going after This is the
case where Basher's probably already seen as the most they've
been gone after Shapiro, but Basher and Shapiro probably the
most pro Israel. They had a had they had a
way to you know, they had a specific news story

(21:44):
to cling to on this, and it I don't know
how salient it will be in a Democratic primary, right,
there are certain issues and this is where I think
polling doesn't always tell you this story. There are certain
issues that will pull a certain way, but it doesn't
necessarily motivate a voter. And the question is whether a

(22:08):
stance on Israel is a voting issue for a Democratic
primary voting for president or is it on the list
of things you'd like? But it is not a deal breaker,
And I'm not going to sit here and tell you
I think I know the answer of which way that leans.
We're going to learn a little something of Michigan Center
primary is going to be fascinating. I think on that issue,

(22:32):
Abdul say Ed clearly calls it genocide of what Israel does.
Molly mcmarrow has decided to also use that word genocide
in there. That is not something Hailey Stevens, the establishment
favorite in that primary, has used. So I think that's
an open question. How much of a voting issue is

(22:54):
a Democrats position on Israel? Is it a voting motivator?
You know, it can be a financial motivator, either to
give or not to give, etc. But is it an
activator when it comes to voting? It is it if
you agree with something on everything else? How many voters
are out there that are only voting on this issue?

(23:14):
How many single issue voters on it? You can probably
tell I'm skeptical that there are many on this for
what it's worth. But this leads me into sort of
my briefing of the week, my twenty twenty six briefing
that I want to do, and the focus I did
on my substack column, which is up and to be
read right now and always free on Substack. I am

(23:36):
not charging a subscription there right now. I view it
as a way to bring some attention to this podcast
and vice versa, how the podcast bring some attention to
the column on this front. But it is we're seeing
a role reversal between the two parties. Essentially, the Republicans
are clearing primary fields all over the country, I mean,

(23:56):
with the large exception of the lone Star state. And
we'll see what happens in the state of Louisiana, although
primary hasn't popped up just yet for Bill Cassidy. But
outside of the John Cornyn mess with Ken Paxton and
now Wesley Hunt, and that is a mess, don't get
me wrong. And if you know, if Cornyn is the nominee,
you take the race off the map. If Ken Paxson

(24:19):
is the nominee, Democrats have a legitimate shot at winning
control of the US side. That's how that's what's at
stake in that primary. Because I don't have a fourth
I really don't see a viable path for four pickups
for the Democrats on their best stack. But if Ken
Paxson's a Republican nominee in Texas, then there's a viable
path for four. Suddenly you can see it. You know,

(24:42):
North Carolina, Maine, you know one, you know, one of
those Midwestern states maybe right, you know with Ohio shared Brown,
maybe in Iowa open seat. What's going on in Nebraska, Alaska? Okay,
I could, I could. You could see one of those
coming in, right, It's hard to see two of those
coming in, but I could see one of those coming in.

(25:04):
Then you throw in Texas and you start that pot.
But overall, in general, there's no primary for the open
seat in Iowa. Republicans have successfully rallied everybody around Ashley Henson.
You know, we know in twenty twenty two, this would
have been there'd have been a mega candidate, a McConnell candidate,
all sorts of colorful characters jumping into that race in Iowa.

(25:27):
In Michigan, Mike Rodgers had to deal with the primary
last time, there is no primary. This time, primaries were
a problem in the Republican side, arguably cost them a
chance at a governor's at a governor's seat, certainly made
the Senate seat a bit harder. This time, they got
Mike Rogers without having a primary. Meanwhile, there's gonna be
a hugely messy and potentially nasty primary on the Democratic side.

(25:50):
On that front, they don't have a primary in North Carolina.
Now they do in Georgia, and we'll see if they
end up with a primary in New Hampshire. I think
if they get and Trump probably leans on Scott Brown successfully.
And that's really what Republicans have done is John Thune
is working hand in hand with the White House and

(26:12):
they're doing their best to essentially agree on tann It's
McConnell kind of tried that, but there was the disaster
of herschel Walker, right, that was just a debacle where
everybody knew that was a bad idea, but he chose
to give the president that And well, that's why there
are two Democratic senators in the state of Georgia. But
it is and in fact, Dune, according to an article

(26:34):
on Political Early this Week, has done has made a
huge effort and has successfully convinced the White House, don't
harass Susan Tollins, don't find some maga person to go
primary her. And she is the only person that can
win that Senate seat if it's winnable, and I don't
know if it is this time, not going to have
a rule out Susan Tollins's ability to win that race,

(26:56):
but she does have the highest unfavorable rating she's ever
had going into it, going into one of these re elections.
But this, you know, contrasts that, right this was the
hallmark of the Democrats. Chuck Schumer was extraordinarily and Harry
Reid all throughout sort of starting in late Obama years,
going through of avoiding messy ideological primary fights, figuring out

(27:19):
how to you know, settle on somebody early, recruit them
and clear the primary field. John Hickenlooper got a Senate
seat this way, and King got a Senate seat this way.
You know, Steve Bullock lost a Senate seat, but he,
you know, it was able to have a clear primary
field when he chose to run. Look, they got that
in shared brown right now, but he still actually is

(27:41):
facing a primary. It looks like there will won't be
a significant primary in the New Hampshire open seat, which
is a small win there, but that's going to be
a tough race either way. And certainly Roy Cooper has
has is sort of the model of you know, they
just not many Roy Hooper's out there, but look at
the State of Man. You know, it looks like they've

(28:02):
got the governor to run, but you've got all these
other candidates that keep jumping in and feel as if
and it's sort of understandable. I think you have a
you have a pent up set of you have a
pent up party, right, a party that's been told to
suck it up and support Hillary Clinton, suck it up
and support Joe Biden, suck it up and support Kamala

(28:24):
Harris without without going through a primary process. So I
do think there's fatigue with being told what to do
by an establishment that doesn't seem to have many wins
anymore to tout. And but look, as we saw the
Republican side, a primary goes the wrong way, the ideology
gets ugly. Somebody may win but be totally bruised. Somebody

(28:47):
may win but despite some awful opposition research that surfaces,
and while they can survive the primary, they can't survive
the general. That's what primaries. You know, primaries. Primaries increase
the unexpected, right, they increase the unintended when you don't

(29:10):
have primaries. Now, look, I could argue primaries could be
healthy to the party. Democrats need to have a good
fight to figure out their direction because I think they
don't know. They're pretty paralyzed right now, and where's to go.
There's a fear there's a divide between progressives who think, hey,
emulate the Mega movement a little bit here right. You know,

(29:30):
a lot of the Establishment of Republicans said MAGA is
a loser. It turns out Mega has given Republicans more
power than they've gotten in a generation. And I think
there are a lot of progressives who say, what's wrong
with emulating a model like that. Let's paint in brighter colors,
let's have more conviction, let's be bolder and lean out there.
I don't think that's where the swing voter is right,

(29:51):
and I've made the argument you've got the adult in
the room voter that I do think is leaned to
the left over the last in the Trump era, I
think the adult in the room voter Lates, But I
think that that has been an important constituent. See it's
not a huge constituency, and it doesn't have much of
a constituency in a primary. These are mostly general election voters.

(30:17):
But I bring up the adult in the room party
when it comes to the situation in Virginia right now.
And let's be honest. If this, if these techs had
surfaced on J. Jones, the attorney general nominee for the Democrats,
a month ago, he'd be out already because they would
have had time to replace him as the nominee. It

(30:39):
really appears that the only reason they're not doing this
is they don't want to. They don't want to lose
the race. There's got to be other ways around this,
right The one I've come up with, and why somebody
hasn't suggested, is if you convince him that if he
if he gets elected, he agrees to resign, he should
not hold an office, a law enforcement position. If he

(31:04):
had been a deputy AG as an appointee or a
deputy US Attorney, an a DA or something, and that
he'd have been fired. No government, uh legal entity would
want that. Those text message you know, have somebody prosecuting
the case, who has whose text messages saying, you know,
making threats like that to public officials. You just you

(31:27):
just couldn't do it. It would it would get rid of
you know, it would cost you credibility in any case
that person would prosecute. So it's it's it looks like
and I get it right. Trump never apologizes, never surrenders.
And I know that there's some that think, hey, you know, well,

(31:52):
if you know they do it, why can't we do it?
But the honorable thing is to agree that if he
if you're if he's elected, he'll resign and then, according
to the the Virginia Constitution, the General Assembly would elect
the would essentially elect the replacement on this. And look,

(32:14):
if you want to just play partisan politics here, it's
most likely a general Assembly is going to be democratic.
We'll see what the final results are. But doing this
dance of condemning what he said but agreeing to vote
for him and allow, you know, I think the Democrats
need to be conducting what I refer to as civil
war surgery, where sometimes you had to cut off a

(32:36):
limb to save the body. There's a month. Do I
think this costs Abigail's Fanburg or the race. I do
not this cost her three or four points? Maybe could
it cost them the LG race? Good? Right, it's it

(32:59):
feels like this is that that there are that this
is sort of the what Trump has done. This is
sort of everybody's got Trump brain. And right, just because
Trump survives these things doesn't mean it's you know, it's
the right thing to do. And again I just sort

(33:21):
of asked the question. The results will tell me, the
voters will tell us the answer to this. But like
I said, I believe that that that Democrats have benefited
being the adult in the room. Party. You don't behave
as the adult in the room on this on this
part of the conversation. What do you lose long term?
You know, maybe maybe you end up maybe rallying around

(33:44):
the troops here, you know, and you get them elected.
But what if you do win with him? Zach got
to call him to question all of his moves. Is
he a paralyzed office holder? As it is? You know,
I it is. This is never going to go away
with him, you know, And it wasn't. I tell you

(34:08):
what sort of really bothers me about this is it's
not the It's sort of like the text themselves were Jesus,
what what do you? Why are you putting this in writing?
But it was the second part of the story where
the lawmaker was like, what are you saying this for?
And he sort of doubled down on it in a

(34:28):
verbal conversation. Right, It was more it wasn't you know
you can? You can? You could forgive somebody in a
heat of the moment, right, you know, nobody wants their
And if every thought that went through all of our
heads were broadcaster or or verbalized, and by the way,
these neurotransplants right could start doing that, I don't think

(34:50):
any of us would want that public. Okay, everybody has
a stray thought, even if it's a hypothetical whatever. Okay,
but good grief, we're not George orwell. Right, So there's
a there's certainly lines here, but the fact that wasn't
heat of the moment. And again it's the office he's

(35:12):
running for, turning genmor right, that's a law enforcement office.
So anyway, I think the Democrats are playing with some
political fire here, and they'd probably be in a better
place if they were calling for his immediate resignation upon election.
You know, that could be the compromise since it's too
late to get his name off the ballot. All right.

(35:45):
I don't know about you, but it's like this entire
I mean, that was just outrage, and I think I
shared this story about the source of mind that sort
of what drove them away from leaving the r n
C when they got got that letter that this panicked
woman said, my social Security check doesn't come for another week?
Is it okay? If I wait? You know, and if

(36:06):
you think about it, how these the way fundraise, the
way this online fundraising world works, which again I think,
as Adam has put it, feels like glorified you know,
targeting of just you know, abusing the elderly here. But
in some ways it's it's it's the incentive structure of
our information ecosystem in general. Right, You've got to have

(36:29):
these sort of blaring, sort of urgent, urgent headlines to
grab the attention of readers. It sort of you know,
makes everything seem as if it's a it's you know,
you know, we started with cable news making everything breaking news, right,
and eventually if everything's breaking news, then what's just news? Right?

(36:52):
You know, what's just it? And it's in some ways
This is sort of what we've done to political fundraising,
what we've done to news consumption. How the algorithms prioritize
again the incentives, right, it prioritizes this, and it really
has warped our brains. Ten years of this kind of

(37:13):
of this kind of nonsense is I think, you know,
helps explain why we're in the why we're in the
uncomfortable position we're in when it comes to our information ecosystem.
All right, it is Wednesday. It's my top five, top five,
top top. Last week was my top five Senate seats

(37:36):
for the month of most likely to flip. Well, today
I'm going to do my top five governor seats most
likely to flip between now and November of twenty twenty six.
Why do I say between now and November of twenty
twenty six, because we have two governor's races coming up
this November, one in Virginia and one in New Jersey,
and well one of them is in my top five list.
And what it is, it's most likely to change parties. Right,

(37:58):
This is why it's doesn't mean I'm saying it's it's
going to be the closest race, the most top but
it's most likely. So the number one seat most likely
to change parties, well, right now, it's Virginia, right, it's
a Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin Abigail Spamberger's got anywhere from
an eight to twelve point lead depending on the polls.
We haven't had any good polling since the controversy involving

(38:19):
the ag nominee and those horrific texts that were made public.
I would imagine it only has a small if any.
I do feel like it is not. We'll see, all right,
I don't know. I think it does if they they
sort of continue this dance and allow it to sort
of dominate the next three or four weeks. It could

(38:41):
cost for a couple of points, but I don't think
it costs he a race. So I think she's definitely
number one. It's the number one most likely to flip
to change parties. Again, that's how my top five works.
So the next four and I will tell you, look,
New Jersey is going to be close. I sort of

(39:02):
refer to New Jersey. It's sort of like the Miami
Florida state game. I knew that was going to get
close at the end, no matter what happened, because the
Miami Florida State games. They always do if it is
it is a rivalry games, so they always both teams
have had a history of coming back from keep deficits
and making games close at the end. And so I

(39:25):
put New Jersey, I put Chittarelli in there as Florida State.
There's it's not a remote chance that he wins. There's
a pretty good chance. And in fact, if you created
a point spread and the points spread were three with
Mikey Cheryl, you know, basically being a three point favorite,
I'd take the underdog. I think this is going to

(39:46):
be a one or two point race. I think got
election night, we're waiting a little bit. It's not something
that gets called right away. We're going to say, have
to see a lot of data, all but various vote
counting entities, and we'll do that. So I think it's
going to be awfully close on that front. But it's
not cracking my top five just yet. And and and

(40:08):
but it's right there. You could say it's it's it's six.
It's really close. So it's gonna be a lot of
competitive governors races. That's really what it means. But I
think when you slotted in, you know, and I look
at it as sort of where I think the race
will be, not necessarily where the race is at, and
think when it's slotted in. So I still make sure

(40:28):
all this slight favored, because I do think the overall
political environment favors Democrats right now because of the unpopularity
of the president. And I think that's probably the difference
between winning and losing in a state like New Jersey
right now. But we'll say, certainly going to be closer
than Virginia, that's for sure. But number two right there
for me is Kansas. Right you have Laura Kelly is

(40:50):
not running again. She's term limited. The Democratic Democratic governor
of Kansas. Kansas is a Here's a couple of rules
on governors, Okay. Number one, The hardest thing to do
is to deny a sitting governor a second term. It
is harder than denying a senator, a second term House
member of second term, a president a second term. Defeeding

(41:12):
and incumbent governor is very difficult. It's a little bit
easier when you're trying to when you're trying to if
they're running for a third or a fourth term. Some
states allow it, some don't. Kansas, it is just two
and that's it. They have a two term limit there.
And Kansas has shown a pattern I mean literally was
you had eight years of Kathleen Sibilius and you had

(41:32):
eight years of Republican governor and eight years of Lord Kelly.
So there's a bit of a pattern there. So you
got to make the Republicans a favor, and I think
overall is sort of the same way. For you know,
Virginia has been sitting in this number one slot. If
I had been doing it for the last year, it
had been sitting there the whole time. Because again with
an open governor's race, it is open seat races that

(41:54):
are most likely to flip party than sitting governors. Okay,
defeating And here's a hint, there's not going to be
a single race in my top five that features a
sitting government. I'll get to I think it's the most
vulnerable sitting governor in the country after I do my
top five list. So number one is Virginia, Number two

(42:14):
is Kansas. Number three and four could easily be could
easily flip. And since I was just at the Big
ten government relations, it means they're both Big ten states
and it actually is this state or this state? Is
it this state or is this state? Do you see
what I'm doing here? Anyway, it's the hand thing. Michigan Wisconsin.
I put Wisconsin number three, Michigan number four. You told

(42:38):
me it should be Michigan number three, Wisconsin number four.
You know, I probably should. You know, I could argue
Michigan three because of the three way race, you know,
if you know doug In, certainly I think it. I
think the path were a Republican for John James is
probably slightly easier in Michigan than Wisconsin. So Michigan, you

(42:58):
could say, is three A and and Wisconsin would be
just below that. So as I'm talking this out, I'm
realizing it's Michigan that's in the third slot. But it's
because of that three way race with the independent dug In.
It's it's the math. It may simply become a math
problem for Democrats unless Dougan wins right, or unless Duggan
gets you know, or or he fades hard right. But

(43:23):
the problem is, if he's down as a five to
ten percent candidate, he most likely takes more from the
Democrat than the Republicans. So I think you have to
put John James uh As slightly ahead and put Michigan
three the open seat in Wisconsin. This is going to
be an extraordinarily close race Wiscoont. Let's see how the

(43:44):
primary goes Wiscont. You know, when when Wisconsin goes too
far to the right, that's when they struggle to win
statewide races. They've had more success with businessmen at times
in some of these primaries. We'll see, But I will
tell you this, I hope, I hope my man Tommy
Thompson gets into this race. Eighty five year old Tommy Thompson,

(44:06):
who was a four term governor back in the nineties,
indicated he'd like to run again. He ran for Senate
a cycle or so ago and got and got trounced
by Tammy Baldwin. He doesn't have his fastball, but he's
probably more with it than other eighty year old politicians,
I'll tell you that. And he certainly would be entertaining
in the primary and would make it an even more

(44:27):
fun race to cover. But overall, let's see how that
primary goes, which which really is another reason to keep
it in the fore slot. The Lieutenant Governor Tony Evers
is a running mate is the most likely demonominee, but
we'll see. I think that's still early there. And then
the fifth slot. Right now, I put Iowa in Rob

(44:48):
sand This is as he's been in the race a while,
He's accumulated a ton of money. The Republican it is
going to be a pretty competitive Republican primary. There is
no there is no nobody's been really coronated just yet.
That could happen, and I think Randy Finstruf he gets

(45:08):
the nomination, is going to be a really really strong
Republican nominee. Sam's gonna have a ton of money. He
has been a proven he won even in a tough
Democratic year. He won re election as state auditor, so
his track record's pretty strong. He's been running a very
centrist campaign. Remember, those of you that have been listening
to my podcast from the very beginning, know that Rob

(45:31):
Sam was on this race, and he was He basically said,
the only reason he's running as a Democrats is that
it's too hard to run as an independent. So point
is is you could see the type of race he's
tried to run. He is not He is not going
to want to get tagged as a national Democrat. We'll
see if we'll see if he's successful at that. If
he is, he's going to be there. Look, there's a

(45:53):
lot of other competitive governatorial races this year. I think
Ohio is going to be competitive, but I think Romas
he's going to be the favorite, so the Republicans therefore
going to be favorite. I think Tim Walls. I think Georgia,
the open zing in Georgia is going to be competitive there,
but I think it's got a long way to go
before we know which way that wind is blowing. And

(46:15):
it's been along, you know, it's been since Roy Barnes
want a term as governor in nineteen ninety eight, since
Democrats been able to win a governor's race. I think
the most right now vulnerable incumbent in the country is
Katie Hobbs for the Democratic side in Arizona. UH and
Dave Schwikert, a swing state member of Congress. There's been

(46:35):
swing district who's constantly had to deal with very tough
congressional races. He's the He's jumped in up primary that
already has two MAGA Trump endorsed candidates in it. Schwikert said, nominee.
I think Hobbs is in deep, deep trouble. Her best
way past the victory is if one of if it

(46:55):
if it's somebody that's a bit too conservative, that that's
sort of been the past in an Arizona politics for
some time. Democratic success goes hand in hand with Republicans
nominating folks too far from the center. You know, Arizona
really is a sort of center right but much more
libertarian state, and I think some of that Maga stuff

(47:16):
doesn't quite play as well there. There's a large Mormon
population in Arizona that doesn't like the low character style
of mega politics either. That is also provided an opening
for moderate Democrats to win statewide there as well. So
you know, she won very narrowly against the second most
unpopular or a second arguably the second most unqualified person

(47:38):
to run for governor in Kerry Lake. And so I think,
I think anybody that's slightly more mainstream than Kerry Lake,
you've gotta you've got to give. So she's probably the
most vulnerable incumbent. And then on the Republican side, it's
it's Joe Lombardo Nevada, probably the most vulnerable Democratic Republican incumbent.

(48:02):
But again the hardest thing to do in politics is
to deny a governor second term. It just doesn't happen
very often. All right, here's my top five for the week. Now,
let's do a couple of questions. We'll get you out
of here, little last Chuck, ask Chuck. All right, it's
question time. Let's start. We'll start with Aaron W. He says, Hello, Chuck,

(48:25):
I'm so sick of seeing money and special interest ruling politicians.
I fully believe they will never vote to band stock
trading of elected officials or vote to fund their own
healthcare out of pocket like normal working people. However, would
there ever be a snowballs chance in hell of a
constitutional amendment danning stock trading or cutting off perks like
top of the line healthcare. Probably not, but one can dream, right, thanks,
Aaron W. Well, look here's where I do think. Look

(48:48):
I am, I really do believe we're going to have
some form of a constitutional convention in the next decade
or so. I think we're much better. And again, when
you look at other periods of tumult that are similar
to the period of political tumult that we're experiencing. It

(49:08):
was followed by a robust movement of adding important constitutional amendments. Right,
if you look, we basically had three periods where we
as a country, you know, past quite a few constitutional amendments.
One was, of course, you know, at the founding, The
second was after the Civil War and during the Civil War,

(49:30):
and the third was in this period. And then from
about you know, nineteen ten through about nineteen thirty five,
where we did quite a bit of amending you know,
direct election of senators, women's right to vote, they prohibition,
and then repealing prohibition, et cetera. So, and I think
it turns out that the emolument's clause for the presidency

(49:52):
wasn't enough, that we may have to be more direct
about elected office and business interests and financial interests. So
I am bullish that if we get to that point
of a constant where there's some agreement about, hey, we
need to you know, we need to look at some
at some refreshing of our democracy, and we can't let

(50:14):
another president do that. In order to perhaps get a
broader coalition supportive of a constitutional amendment, that it may
I could see it being written in such a way
to impact all federal elected office holders, not just the
president and the vice president. So whether it's stock trading.

(50:35):
I don't know if you'd get to stock trading, but
it is certainly going to be an you know, to
put some constitutional guardrails in to prevent using office to
gain wealth in at least trying to minimize, trying to
make it harder, trying to erect a real, actual constitutional

(50:56):
guardrail rather than a quote unquote norm or ethical guideline
or something something like that. And look, part of the
reason it's it's the separation of powers make it hard
for the legislative branch to put policies on the executive branch,
the elected leaders of that. So just you know, the
cleanest way to do this is via constitutional amendment. Our

(51:19):
next question comes from Chrispy. It's a check, longtime fan
from the Meat Press days and now your podcast. Thank you, Chris,
appreciate it. My question comment regarding the shutdown is that
it plays right into Trump's plan with the economy. Government
shutdown means no BLS reports, which will give Trump cover
for the increasingly vad economic numbers. You'll blame the Democrats
for the bad economic numbers once the shutdown end, because
you really think the American people will believe another lie

(51:40):
or misinformation. Chris I don't because I think, you know,
lived experience always trumps the misinformation. Right. Look, Joe Biden
was out there and the Democrats were telling, you know,
the economy's fined, and people said, well, that's not what
i'm feeling. Right, So if it didn't work for Biden,
and perhaps they weren't as good at it is as

(52:01):
Trump is at times, I just don't think it's gonna
work for your Lived experience is what you're gonna vote on. Okay,
you know you're gonna believe me or you're lying eyes
right that that expression. But in all seriousness, I do
think lived experience Trump's Trump's anything. Trump will try to
spend on us, and so we'll say, look, there's a

(52:23):
lot of disagreement. I'm gonna have market any comeback pretty soon.
There's a lot of disagreement here. I mean, I think
this is you know, I do think that we're going
to have another sort of messy interpretation of the economy.
You know, the stock market can continue to do gangbusters
while people feel like this economy sucks. Right, And I've
always said that you know the number, if you look

(52:47):
at the economic numbers, it's just you know, if you're
not if you're not. It's just sort of like it
takes money to make money. But if you don't have
the money, you can't take advantage of the situation we're
in with the stock market. And then it feels like
you can never get ahead. They can never catch up,
let alone get ahead. So I think this is a

(53:09):
really crappy economy if you don't already have a savings
or you don't already have a house. And so no
amount of numbers is going to mask the feeling people
have the inability to move up the economic ladder, the
inability to get out of one house and get into
one that's slightly bigger and sort of move up, you know,
you sort of participate in what the American dream is

(53:32):
supposed to be. So and I think twenty six, I
think we're going to have sort of a stock market
that may give one perception of the economy. And then
the cost to live, you know, higher healthcare premiums, higher,

(53:53):
you know, prices on every little good because of tariffs,
are electric bills, and I look, I think the anti
data stuff, the AI data farms are going to start
becoming political targets and get blamed in some places it's
fair some places, it may not be fair for increasing

(54:17):
the cost of power. It's possible Trump takes some heat
for not embracing on all of the above energy policy,
which could lower our power bills over time instead of
increasing them. So I do think the cost to live
is not going away as an issue, even if the

(54:37):
sort of the numbers of the economy will look pretty
good if you look at it a certain way, particularly
if you have some wealth versus what the numbers will
look like to those that can't break into that part
of the economy. And so I have a feeling that's
what things are going to look like in twenty six

(54:59):
and that's maybe the best case scenario for economic outlook.
All right. Next question comes from Roger L. Hey, Chuck,
I've been listening to your podcast for a year, all right,
and I appreciate your deep political insight. I have shallow
political insight too. I promise I can go to the
deep end, but I'll get shallo. If you want you
want to do some Paul fine Bomb, I just have

(55:19):
one piece of advice for Paul fine Bomb, by the way,
to do some shallow hot take political analysis that an
ESPN person will understand everybody who says they love you.
Now just wait till you jump into politics. Brother, Okay,
none of your word You think your words get scrutinized
now by SEC fans. You ain't see nothing yet, and

(55:41):
he already has sort of gotten a high hard one
by his you know where somebody dug up something he
said about Trump in twenty seventeen. Look, if Trump gets
you the endorsement, then you're right. You'll be able to
skate by, and it makes everything you said about him
forgivable to the Mago world. I'm not so convinced you're

(56:04):
gonna get Trump on your side, mister Finebaum, but we
shall say. All right, Sorry, just thought i'd provide you
a little shallow political announcement set up the deep political insight,
he goes. You've often noted the Democrats struggled to find
themselves beyond being not Trump, even as you discuss issues
like democracy and equality in the rule of law. Truck
me that while Republicans have Project twenty twenty five as
a roadmap, Democrats could use their own Project twenty twenty

(56:24):
eight or twenty twenty nine to outline concrete, broadly supported reforms.
When I give voters a clear vision of change. Roger,
I am increasingly somebody else has written something similar to this,
and I'm increasingly thinking that it is something democrats ought
to do because you know what, it's actually been done before,
and it's worked. You know, the Contract with America ninety

(56:48):
four worked. I think the public, you know, a cynic
like me may say it's a bunch of hogwash, only
about two or three items and their real priorities. But
voters want to know you're going to get something done right.
And I think that and there in some ways, you know,
like in the movie Tommy Boy, they want to guarantee
on the box. You know, he wants it right there

(57:09):
on the box. It's smiling at you, it's looking at you, right.
But in all seriousness, I do think that there's something
to it. I think the lack of trust in politicians
these days means you got to put it in writing.
So I actually think if you, if you, you know,
we're all so accustomed to believe that you can't really

(57:32):
believe that a politician isn't gonna do what they say
and say what they do, right, So I think it
would be healthy. I mean, look, the downside to it
is the downside. Why the Trump campaign ran away from it,
not towards it, even though it was a governing blueprint.
That's because some of the things that we're gonna do

(57:53):
and we're gonna turn off swing voters, and that's the danger. Right.
It all depends on how big your coalition is. But
I think generally voters do want to see something in writing.
I do so I think there's something to it. But
don't you know, I think the problem with Project twenty

(58:15):
twenty five is that was written to a love letter
to Maga, which is why it was politically unpopular with
what they were doing. If somebody has an agenda that
is sort of more of a broad agenda that's designed
to benefit as many Americans as possible, not just members
of your side, I think putting it in writing could

(58:39):
be very very effective. All right, I'm just thinking one
more question here. This one comes from Brian said, I
would you handle the bad faith arguments of misinformation that
republics are using influence government shutdown debate? Well, look, I
guess I would you know. This is where I tactically
think I would have I go back. I don't think

(59:01):
I would have made this my moment of truth. I
think I would have taken the clean CR and taken
this to November and then made November the be all
and all on healthcare. I still think it's a good argument.
I still think it's a it's a it's it's certainly look,
if this were just about healthcare, they'd already have opened

(59:24):
the government. It's obviously not just about healthcare. I do
think plenty of Democrats inside, that's inside those elected Senate
and House conferences say Jesus, he's running rough shot over
the Constitution. We've got to show some spine. You've got
to stand up to him on somebody. We've got to
provide a road, if not a roadblock, at least a
speed bump, make it harder for him to do these things,

(59:48):
not easier. Right, So the problem is that is not
I don't think a lot of voters, you know, the
the democracy arguments haven't worked. They work with the bay
but they don't work with swing voters. What does work
with swing voters is stuff that impacts them cost of living,
healthcare subsidies. Right. That's so, I understand the choice of

(01:00:12):
the issue is correct politically, but they're in a you know,
they lost some high ground and quote unquote clean cr
I get it. Trump is totally and completely an unreliable
partner to negotiate with because of what he did on recisions.
But just look at the word recisions. It is not

(01:00:32):
something that is in the everyday lexicon. And you're like,
what the recisions? Seventy percent of the country's going, wait,
what are you recissoring? What are you talking about? And
so I think the real motivation here is that, hey,
this guy's running rough shot and not following the Constitution.
But that's been an incredibly hard argument to get mass

(01:00:56):
appeal for. You could say maybe that that's the principle
worth standing standing on it. I don't. I don't disagree,
but and I certainly think this. You know, if you're
asking me what I would do with this undocumented you know,
the idea of they want health care for the undocumented,

(01:01:16):
I would continue to ask the rhetorical question, so should
emergency rooms reject anybody who isn't a citizen? Has any
anybody who heard of the hippocratic oath? Right? No doctor
is going to do that, And that is not what
America does. We're the United States, a fucking America. Pardon

(01:01:37):
my French here, Actually, you know, I'm speaking American here.
We don't do that. We don't leave people to die
in our country just because of what country they're from.
That's not what we supposedly are holding ourselves up for
as a role model for the world. So if you're
asking me how I would push back on that aspect

(01:01:59):
of the debate, I'd say, why do you want people
to die in emergency rooms? If you're there going to
be disingenuous? You fight back with you take a kernel
of truth? Do you want to rescind the law that
says emergency rooms do get reimbursed for treating anybody that
comes in, regardless of their nationality or their citizenship. I

(01:02:22):
promise you that wouldn't be popular. We're religious enough in
America to still think that we ought to take care
of somebody regardless, you know, no matter their hurt. Now, look,
if somebody committed a crime, we patch them up, then
we arrest them, right. Mark Sanchez found out about that
in Indianapolis over the weekend for football fans at Paula

(01:02:46):
Bet that story. If you need more on that, just
go google it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna get
into it. But the point is do you ask me
about how to deal with that. That's how we deal
with it. But I do think that the shutdown politics
are complicated because the real reason Democrats are drawn a
line in the same of the ear is not about healthcare, right,
It's about the entire process of working with Donald Trump

(01:03:09):
and how he has not you know, why should Democrats
provide sixty votes for appropriations when they will use fifty
votes on a parting line two to rescind some of
any appropriation they don't like, which they've already done. So
I think that that's the that's where this is. You know,

(01:03:33):
this is a you can't you can't trust the negotiation.
It's a fair gripe, and it's one that is it's
it's like, who's to say they would do this, They've
already done it, right, So, but that is a tough
one to galvanize the public on. That's the problem. The
specific issue of healthcare is something that the public will

(01:03:55):
galvanize about. And I have to say Republicans are fumbling
this healthcare conversation. Right when Marjorie Taylor Green is the
one out there leading the charge of, Hey, we got
to get these healthcare stuff. What are we doing to people?
If you notice she went out there and said that
Donald Trump started to say, hey, we're gonna provide good healthcare.

(01:04:16):
You can quite say, how right, But he's sensitive, he's
nervous about this issue. So in that sense, the Democrats
have made some gains on the shutdown simply getting that
issue more front center, because look, it is hard to
break through on anything these days in the world of
Donald Trump. All right, with that, I will call it

(01:04:37):
a podcast. Appreciate you listening. Thank you as always. You know,
sometimes I'm my old man yelling at cloud, and you guys,
I see by the numbers I am not, so I
appreciate that there's a lot of a lot of people
joining me in yelling at the cloud. And with that,
I'll see him for twenty four hours until we upload again.

(01:05:00):
M

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Chuck’s Commentary - Nobody “Wins” A Shutdown + Israel’s Popularity With American Public + Top 5 Governor’s Seats Most Likely To Flip