Short: Separatists fail first test, but slow march to referendum continues

The results of Alberta’s three byelections delivered a largely status quo outcome, but with some notable undercurrents. In Edmonton-Strathcona, NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi secured a decisive win, surpassing former leader Rachel Notley’s vote share with 82 per cent. It marks his long-awaited entry into the legislature. The NDP also held Edmonton-Ellerslie, though with a slimmer margin — nearly 11 points down from 2023. That erosion raises questions about the party’s grip on “Fortress Edmonton,” particularly as polls suggest the UCP is gaining ground in the capital.

In Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, the UCP kept the rural stronghold but lost 15 points in vote share. The Republican Party of Alberta’s Cam Davies earned nearly 18 per cent — the strongest separatist showing in years. Still, Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt called the result underwhelming, noting it fell short of the one-third benchmark that would signal serious momentum. He called it a missed opportunity for Alberta’s separatist movement, which tends to rise and recede depending on leadership and political climate.

In this episode of West of Centre Short, Bratt argues the latest separatist push is less grassroots than previous waves and more top-down — driven in part by Premier Danielle Smith and her inner circle. While Smith says she supports a united Canada, critics point to her past reliance on the Sovereignty Act, efforts to create a provincial pension plan and police force, and paving the way for a potential independence referendum in 2026 as signs of a deeper, ambiguous agenda.

Host: Rob Brown | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guest: Duane Bratt