May 7, 2024 • 61 mins
This is legal alchemy. The hive mind of the protesters. Eric Hovde, Wisconsin GOP U.S. Senate Candidate. Our favorite data nerd, Ryan Girdusky: rust belt vs. sun belt.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to today's edition of the Clay Travis and Buck
Sexton Show podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Welcome in Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. We've got a
fun time coming for all of you. Eric Hovedy, who
is running for the Senate from Wisconsin, will join us
in the next hour. Ryan Gerdusky at the top of
the third hour to break down all of the data
and analytics as we sit six months away from election day.
(00:30):
But we begin today with the what I would say
is farcicle continuation of the New York City case against
Donald Trump. We have had Stormy Daniels on the witness
stand and absolutely insanely ridiculous continuation of the sham law
(00:52):
fair that has been taking place in New York City.
And before we get into Stormy Daniels and what she
might have said to me, the story here Buck and
we talked about this quite a lot yesterday with Andy
McCarthy is they haven't to me, really proven any criminality
(01:12):
on Donald Trump's behalf. And I'm gonna lay into that
in a moment, But you know that I like to
look at the odds markets you can gamble on basically anything,
and the odds that there is going to be a
felony conviction of Donald Trump have dropped to seventy five
percent likely. That sounds still like a lot, but it
(01:36):
means and the chances here have now, according to the
gambling markets moved up to a quarter that there is
no conviction at all. And I think that's because people
are paying attention here and again it comes down to
the jury and how well they apply the law. But
they haven't actually proven anything. And I want to play
(01:57):
a couple of cuts here cut. Here is Trump speaking
before he went in today using sorry cut three left
wing media reports about how the trial isn't going well
for prosecutors.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
This is him reading cut three.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Some of the statements made about this witch hunt On
CNN Fake New CNN Michael Barre said the proof of
falsifying records has not been accomplished. On Good Morning America,
they said, we heard that expense fayments to lawyers are
legal expenses. Also, NBC Today show the challengers that there
(02:40):
is no smoking gun, no email on or tape to
prove the president's in tenth they don't have a way
to prove that.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
That's NBC Today's show.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
And then Fox News Kadi Cha Casski said that the
gag order is unconstitutional, which of course it is.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
I think all that's true, Buck, and I will play
a couple of those cuts that he referenced here in
a moment. But ultimately, I think what even left wing
political commentators who have some legal basis and knowledge are
having to recognize is what we've told you for some time.
This is an incredibly weak case. But even within that context,
(03:20):
prosecutors are not doing a very good job actually proving
a crime was committed here.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Well, I think it really does matter to look.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
At the language we say this when it comes to immigration,
for example, illegal immigration. Right now, they want you to
say newly arrived, and before that it was undocumented, and
before that it was illegal immigrant, and before that it
was legal alien. And they've been winning the argument by
changing the language.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Right.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
That's true on many things. The left is unfortunately better
at this than we tend to be, because there's something
underhanded about it. I mean, they're shifting language without addressing
the argument. But I just think, Clay, we talked about
a hush money trial. A hush money isn't a crime, correct,
So that's not you know, it's almost like saying the
(04:08):
stormy Daniels alleged affair trial. Well, hold on a second.
An affair not that you know, it's not a good thing,
but an affair is not illegal. So it's not an
affair trial. It's not a hush money trial. It is
a business records trial. And even when people say it
was it's about a campaign finance violation. The campaign finance
(04:31):
violation component of it is assumed right. The falsification of
the business record allegedly occurred so that it wouldn't get
into the realm of a reportable campaign finance issue. And
therefore there's a broader scheme here, which is how he
turns it into a felony, and that this is legal alchemy.
(04:53):
This is turning a nothing burger into a nothing burger
with cheese.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
And we are seeing this.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
All all unfold before our very eyes in a way
that once again I think Democrats you're starting they're starting
to be concerned about the outcome here. You're seeing some
of the legal analysts. There are legal analysts who go
on MSNBC, for example, whose only goal is to say
whatever they think the brainwash lib audience wants. There are
(05:22):
some who want to do that, but also don't want
to look like total jackasses and say things that make
a fool of them when the facts actually come out.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
There aren't many of them.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
But there are a few. You've already started to see them.
I think Clay Hedging a little bit saying, Oh, I
wish this was really about the January sixth case and
not this. Oh, hold on a second, I thought that
Alvin Bragg was, you know, the new sheriff in town
to get justice.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Uh, this is slowly.
Speaker 4 (05:49):
I wouldn't say it's falling apart, but there are there
are cracks in the wall here.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Something's happening.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
And remember the only reason this is not a misdemeanor
is because they're claiming that there was a second crime
that was committed while not necessarily really claiming and proving
the second crime, which feels to me like legally untenable terrain,
which is why I said yesterday, I think this is
going to get tossed. And here's the other thing that
(06:17):
I think is well. Well, first of all, let's play
that cut that Trump referenced. I believe it is cut five.
This is Attorney Michael Moore, not the filmmaker, saying that
proof of Trump falsifying records hasn't been accomplished yet.
Speaker 5 (06:33):
Cut testim it was important because it starts to connect
some of the dots, and that is, you know, can
you actually put a pin in Donald Trump's hand? Can
you put a check in his hand? Under his signature?
But that really is not the crux of the government's case.
The case deals with heavy falsified records as it relates
to the federal election law, and so that has not
(06:53):
been accomplished yet.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
I think that's important. Also, Bara, I might be mispronouncing
his name, Burrara, long time SDN Y prosecutor.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Right, he was high up and he was the US
attorney for the Southern District of New York. Yes, here
he is saying, you know, this is not the crime
of the century.
Speaker 6 (07:14):
I think based on what happened today and how uninspiring
the crossing examination was. Because the documents largely speak for themselves.
The prosecution has basically proven the basic case, which is
falsification of business records, which people can argue is or
is not the crime of the century.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
It's a misdemeanor.
Speaker 6 (07:31):
The New York law recognized it as a misdemeanor, and
we can argue and see how the evidence comes in
with respect to the next phase, which is whether that
can be accelerated into a felony if it was done
for the purposes of concealing or furthering some other crime,
an election law crime or a tax crime.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
But the basic fundamental.
Speaker 6 (07:49):
Case, the elements of which were laid out in crystallized
form today in court, I think we're made.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Out Okay, So what I would say buck is and
this is what we talked about a little bit with
Andy McCarthy. The more I read, and obviously we can't
listen to it because a lot of this is taking
place while we're on air and we're not able.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
To get audio.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
But to me, Trump has a really strong argument here
that the reason he paid Stormy Daniels was not for
election related reasons, but to try to avoid family embarrassment.
And he did that already for someone who was a
dorman claiming that he had an illegitimate child. I think
(08:32):
most people out there who were married, whether it's true
or not, would not want this story out there.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
Yeah, you know, But I also think we shouldn't lose
sight of the fact that prosecutorial discretion is a very
powerful tool and it should have been used here with
all the facts of the case presented to do exactly
what the federal government did, which is say, there's nothing
to do here, there's nothing to see here, there's no
(08:59):
dan image, there's no crime, there's no harm, there's no loss,
and there's no argument otherwise.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
By the way, I mean, this whole thing is an absurdity.
Speaker 4 (09:10):
And I do think we're at the place now, we're
the same way that we to just keep it honest
and keep it real.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Here.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
You know, we've woar gamed what happens if he's found guilty.
Will they send him to prison? Will they put him
under house arrest? And we've talked this through and we
don't have the answers, but we're looking at what the
possible pathways are, what the outcomes are here. I think
we should also start to think about what happens if
they actually get a not guilty verdict?
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Oh yeah, And what does that do to the other prosecutions,
which are clearly political? What does that do to the
media arts you mean not guilty or you mean that
it is just a mistrial, like I, oh, not guilty?
Speaker 2 (09:48):
If they got it not guilty verdict? If Trump won
this trial, twelve jurors said he didn't do this. I mean,
I think there's still is z zero percent chance of
that because I think.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
Zero percent, yeah, and I'm not I wouldn't even say
there's a zero percent chance that I wake up tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
So I think zero percent is a little too strong.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
There's there is no way twelve New York City jurors,
it's possible to see a jury that doesn't hate Trump.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
What I say, he's guilty, I think what we have seen.
Speaker 4 (10:21):
Yeah, but we've seen how this plays out if one
person says he's guilty and everyone else is like, this
is a sham, This is a scam. Look, I think
this is a one in ten shot. I'm not trying
to get too crazy. Okay, I did like twenty thousand.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
No, I think, yes, it's zero. It rounds down to zero.
Speaker 4 (10:40):
This is even if they hate Trump. People who are
you know they're showing up to these core proceedings.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
There's you are way too optimistic all of a sudden
for that.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I think I think it's ninety percent that Trump is
going to get convicted. And do you think I'm too optimistic?
Speaker 4 (10:54):
I'm just saying no, I used to be ninety nine, Okay,
I used to be ninety nine I would make I.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Think there's a twenty five percent chance all twelve won't
say guilty, but for all twelve to say not guilty,
I think is around down to zero, like one in
twenty thousand or something like that. Now, I think there's
a twenty five percent chance ish maybe even higher, that
there's at least one journey who will refuse to say
he's guilty. I'll just tell you this.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
I mean, I saw what was going on in the
States with Colorado and Maine, and my inclination was so
do Mayor and Catanji Brown Jackson are the most left
wing and clearly politicized jurists who have ever sat on
the Supreme Court. And even they said, guys, this is
(11:43):
too gross.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
You can't do.
Speaker 4 (11:45):
This because of what it does to the system, A
system that even the craziest leftists want to yes corrupt,
but use for their own purposes down the line. This
trial is such a joke that I do think the
outlier possibilities need to be considered. I'm not betting you
a steak on this one because I just like collecting
steaks from you. I don't like it to go the
(12:06):
other way. Trump I'm merely saying, guilty verdict. It would
they would, it would, I would be glorious. I don't
even know what they would do on MSNBC. I think
they might just in the network effectively. I mean, a
hung jury would be is a win. It's a win
for sure, and it's pretty darn close, uh in terms
(12:29):
of the effect. I don't think the effect afterwards of
a not guilty versus a hung jury matters to Trump
all that much under the circumstances. But I'm just saying
this is it's so weak, and now we're now we're
not able to see the court proceedings, so everything is
what's being reported on. But this, this is the honestly
(12:50):
the dumbest criminal trial I have ever heard of in
my life. I've never heard of someone being prosecuted for
a felony for less than Donald Trump is right now.
I cannot And I was in counter terrorism cases where
people lied to the FEDS about things and they got
jammed up, and people did financial structuring and they got
(13:11):
jammed up, and you know, I've seen some stuff that's
pretty borderline. This is the most absurd felony prosecution of
anyone that I can think of and they're doing it
to a leading presidential candidate in the election year. It's
so gross that you have to think that there are
some possibilities here that people wake up. It's so wrong
(13:34):
that I think you have to leave open that chance.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
But again, the odds are with you. But then again,
how did your horse do there, mister odds guy? Horse
lost by like a head.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
I mean it was a three way tie and it
was a ten to one payout that I almost hit on.
So carry had some had some good success. I think
she won the most, went like three for three on
bat out at the Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
So I should I should just like her run the
stock portfolio. Anyway, we'll see. We'll take some of your
calls too. And by the way, our good friend Christy
Nome went on with our good friend Jesse Waters last night.
I really think that she's trying to light herself on
fire at this point. I watched the interview live and
I just thought to myself, does her staff hater?
Speaker 1 (14:19):
What is going on here?
Speaker 2 (14:20):
We'll have some more fun ridiculously with that as well.
But I want to tell you I was just out
in Seattle and I spoke at Hillsdale's big event out there,
and I sat next to doctor Larry Arn, who runs Hillsdale,
and I got to tell you, as the father of
three kids, I thought to myself, I would be ecstatic
if one of my boys ended up going to Hillsdale College,
because you know what they do.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
They do something radical.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
They actually teach them and give them an education, hold
them accountable, make them work. And the kids coming out
of Hillsdale are kicking ass all over the country doing
so many different great things. And you can read about
the battles that Hillsdale is fighting in Imprimus. It's their
free digestive life liberty that goes to more than six
and a half million homes. In businesses, Imprimus will give
(15:05):
you a smart constitutional commentary from people like Christopher Rufo,
Victor Davis Hansen, Heather MacDonald and doctor Larry Arn, who
I sat next to an actual doctor, by the way,
unlike doctor Jill Biden. You can receive a free subscription
at clayanbuck for Hillsdale dot com right now, no cost,
no obligation. Hillsdale produces and mails and Primus as part
(15:27):
of its educational mission on behalf of Liberty. Sign up
today at clayanbuckfo Hillsdale dot com.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
The campus protest.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Let's take a look at the latest with hoes the
Biden base out on college campuses, and this is still ongoing.
There are now, I think a lot of people who
are wondering, will they try to disrupt graduation ceremony even
(16:06):
if they have been cleared out? Also, will they do
anything at the Chicago DNC, the Democratic National Convention, which
will be this summer. Certainly possible, and that would harken
back to sixty eight and I think that would be
a bad look for the Democrats, but who knows. And
then there's some other feelings play that I wanted to
get into here, or some sense of what's happening from
(16:30):
those who were watching this whole thing playoff. First of all,
as I mentioned the situation with the Israel Hamas war,
Israel is poised to go into Rafa and it's the
last bastard in the last holdout area of Hamas in
the very southern portion of Gaza, and there's concern.
Speaker 7 (16:53):
Now.
Speaker 4 (16:54):
I think they are negotiations that are happening, and there's
a lot of politics about this. Keep in mind, Moss
could have ended this a long time ago. Amas could
have stopped all of this, Hamas chooses not to stop it.
Hamas still has hostages. There are many questions, for a
tragic how many of those hostages, including there are some
Americans held hostage, are still alive. I think we're going
(17:16):
to find that the answer to that is tragically far
lower than would be expected if Hamas was not run
by barbarous, violent thugs, which it is. And so that's
all ongoing in the background. The Biden administration. There's now
back and forth over whether they delayed this arm shipment
(17:36):
of the Israelis intentionally or not. It certainly looked like
some kind of a win for the protesters. Okay, now
we'll get to the other part of this, which is
that there are a lot of as much as we
focus on the crazy Bolsheviks of higher education, and there's
a lot of that going on. You know, there's an
Axios poll clear that just came out that had the
(17:57):
following numbers, and I think it's a reminder that while
there's far too much craziness on the campus and the
professors are overwhelmingly nuts, not all. There's some great conservative
professors and there's some great campuses with nothing but conservative professors, right,
I mean, Clay, You've spoke to Hillsdale recently, But the
(18:18):
overwhelming majority of professors, certainly in the liberal arts, are
nuts and and go along with this stuff and are
a part of you know, BLM and pro hamas Er,
you know, down with Israel and all this, all this stuff,
all the stuff that goes together, climate change, all this.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
Trump is going to destroy the world. But there are
a lot of normal.
Speaker 4 (18:36):
People on campus still, or at least more normal. Sixty
seven percent, according to the Saxio's poll, say occupying campus
buildings is unacceptable. Ninety percent say blocking pro Israel students
from parts of campus is unacceptable fifty eight percent majority.
But I think it should be bigger, say refusing a
(18:59):
university's order to disperse is unacceptable, that number should be higher.
But when you have almost seventy percent recognizing that the
occupation of buildings is just you can't do that, and
ninety percent saying you can't tell Jewish students you're not
welcome in this part of campus, how about ten percent
of people are okay with telling Jewish students you're not
welcome in this part of campus. That actually seems a
(19:21):
little bit alarming to me. And one hundred percent of
them are voting Democrats.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
Just I mean this is entirely I mean that's like
ninety percent is good. But like restricting anybody based on
their ethnicity, or their gender or their sexuality to be
able to walk through campus, that's so a little bit
ominous to me, and I think speaks to that ten
percent base that's out there that's doing this.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
But some of that is encouraging, as you're laying out.
So this is.
Speaker 4 (19:49):
Mario Torres speaking. He is a custodian at janitor. I mean,
I think janitor is an entirely honorable profession. I don't
know why we have to play custodian. Jenner is the
same thing. Janitor as every bit as honorable profession as custodian,
et cetera. But fine, I'll use the term custodian just
you know, I think it's a little unnecessary. But the
(20:11):
Columbia University custodian Mario Torres saying that the school should
have done more to protect them and that the school, really,
Columbia University, was kind of asleep at the wheel for
this whole thing.
Speaker 7 (20:22):
Play one, is Columbia going to retaliate and find a
reason to fire me. Is is someone going to come
after me? We are taking a big risk, you know,
doing this.
Speaker 8 (20:32):
But I I think that I think that they failed,
they failed us, and I think that's that's the that's
the bigger story. They failed us. They should have done
more to protect us, and they did it.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
They absolutely didn't Clay.
Speaker 4 (20:46):
There are people in this process who have been treated
as this is unfolded really badly, and there's all this
concern of, oh, what about are we being too harsh
with the protesters? And you know, what about the people
who have been under lunatic threat from the occupations that
(21:07):
are happening, or the people that want to just go
to class and they've paid money to be there and
they want to have a normal experience at the end
of their school year. Like there are a lot of
victims here. The protesters are not victims. They've created this
whole thing themselves.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
And really there seems to be this idea.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
I'm sure you saw that UCLA has gone remote all
week because people aren't able to move around on campus
freely and safely. GW which is where I went in Washington,
d C, has been begging for the Metro Police in
DC to come and clean up the protesters, but the
mayor of DC, Muriel Bowser, will not allow it to occur.
Speaker 1 (21:50):
All of this is chaotic.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
The question is at this point, I think will it
occur around found the Democrat National Convention in August in Chicago?
Speaker 1 (22:05):
Because if it does?
Speaker 2 (22:06):
And I think you said, you're you're not optimistic or
maybe optimist or a word, but you're you're not of
the belief that it will because you think Democrats altern it.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
Can I tell you why I think that is? Yeah,
because I think that these are these are useful idiots.
And remember there's many tiers, as many layers here. You
have the useful idiots who are you know, a junior
at Columbia or you know, a senior at GW or whatever,
and they actually believe that this has some.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
Merit and they're the good guys here.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
But there's also the professional agitators and protesters who have
been in the mix. We know this because they've been arrested.
We have their mugshots and they're like, you know, they're
in their fifties. They're like retirees who are showing up
to protest this. I mean, it's clear, they're not undergrads.
And uh, what you have I think is going to
be the Soros funded left is going to recognize that
(23:03):
trying to foment these protests that the DNC is problematic,
is not helping the cause ultimately, because Biden will either
either give them the policies they want or bend the
knee if enough pressure is on him to be a leftist.
So they want him to be president. They do not
want Donald Trump to be president. So that's what they
(23:24):
show up in Milwaukee. Where will be that might yes,
that I could see for sure, but I mean I
assume that Trump it's tough to gauge, like obviously there'll
be lunatics protesting Trump all over the place. I don't
know if it'll be enough to make a mess, And
actually it'll be a bad look. I think it'll be
a bad look for them if it gets out of hand,
and if they're just standing there with here's the thing.
(23:46):
The reason they do all this childish nonsense with the
encampments and in the occupying buildings and we refuse to
leave and all this is because if they were just
standing around channing slogans, nobody cares. Here a bunch of imbeciles.
You're not convincing anyone of anything, so that's why they
do these things. It's like lying down in the street
to make you, you know, three hours late for work because
the highways blocked.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Like.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
These people have no good arguments, so they inflict themselves
upon the normal people.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
I wonder if they're able to turn this off. They
dialed up the crazy to such an extent. I think
what they want to do is jump this energy into
BLM again. I think if you could go into their
sort of hive mind, what they're hoping for is the
(24:36):
energy that they've unlocked with the Hamas protests and the
anti Israel protest. They hope to be able to combine
it with something BLM related because the BLM protests are
super positive for them. Now here's the challenge in general
with protests. When you're in all of the positions of power,
(24:56):
how does that play with independent voters? Because it's one
thing when you can kind of drag it around as
a weight on Donald Trump in twenty twenty oh, look,
the country's falling apart. This is all Donald Trump's fault.
When you're in basically control of the entire government, I know,
we got a two or three seat majority in the House,
(25:18):
Republicans do. But basically you've got Democrats in the Senate.
You've got complete control in the White House. Right now,
Does it work against Joe Biden if there's any kind
of unrest, even if it's motivated like BLM was by
the George Floyd related incident, I don't know how that
(25:39):
plays if you're in the White House.
Speaker 4 (25:42):
Yeah, it depends on what the issue is and how
they're going about it. Remember, while all the BLM two
point zero stuff was happening, obviously Trump was president, and
so there was this implicit Oh, the racist Donald Trump
president is in office, and so that's why one cop
put a knee on the shoulder of you know, like
(26:05):
it's Trump's fault somehow. What happened in Minnesota with with
one cop actually was you know, unfortunately they threw the
other cop in prison to the one who's just there.
I mean, you know, it was it was total injustice.
By the way, these officers, none of them wanted to
hurt anybody, Uh, the idea that they should. That one
what's his name got like Chauvin got like twenty years
(26:26):
or something.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
I mean, it's it's it. They were absolutely just handed
over to the mob.
Speaker 4 (26:31):
It was wrong. It was mob justice. And now I
think we're allowed to actually finally talk about what's going
on there. Maybe that's been the case for a while,
but Clay, I think that it even if they mobilize
and Biden is in power, the problem is the people
who do not go along with Biden, Right, Biden would
(26:53):
get so much more done. Biden would have achieved so
much more for the black community, let's say, in America
under his tenure. Now, the black community, I think knows
this is not true, but the narrative would be Biden
would have achieved so much if only the Trump Republicans
weren't standing in his way. So anything that they protest
(27:15):
is our fault somehow. On the Israel issue, it's a
little bit more bipartisan, but generally speaking, they always have
a way to say that is the fault of the
other side, even when they're in power, because we should
just go along with everything they want. If we went
along with everything they want, then there wouldn't be these problems.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Right.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
But Biden, to the earlier point I made, he is
losing support among particularly young blackmail voters and If Biden
does not get ninety percent plus of the black vote,
it's all overh.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
No way he wins.
Speaker 4 (27:45):
So I think that's I think there are encouraging signs
that the usual Democrat playbook of lies will not rest.
And again encouraging signs. I know, who knows what's going
to happen, but I do see some reason for optimism.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
Look at that CLI.
Speaker 4 (28:00):
I'm optimistic, although the Boy Scouts did just change their name.
Have you seen this, Yes, I saw that story. I mean,
you saying that you thought there was a possibility for
a not guilty verdict for Trump is maybe the most
optimistic thing I've heard you say in months. I said
ten percent shot. I think it's that's a pretty high percent.
You know, I think that that's well. I would have
(28:20):
said it was one until this week. But I think
it's such a debacle. And also it's so clear as
they're having the Stormy Daniels testimony that they really just
want to humiliate Donald Trump. And if they took the
law seriously and if this really was about justice and
about our sacred democracy, they wouldn't have some very sad
(28:44):
former porn star telling tales from twenty years ago about
something that Trump completely denies, but even irrespective of that,
certainly not criminal. And why are we having this told
again in a court twenty years later?
Speaker 1 (29:01):
What is the purpose of this?
Speaker 4 (29:02):
They just want to humiliate him play They hate him
so much that it makes them irrational. That is true
of the anti Trump Democrats across the board. They lose
context and it looks like they've lost context and they've
lost their judgment when it comes to all of these
criminal trials. I'm hoping that that's the case. Six SI
your calls and this also Eric Hovdy, running for Wisconsin
(29:24):
Senate going to join us. I want to talk to
him about the economy, Biden economy, some of the very
troubling headwinds out there, and basically and people realizing the
government's just taking away your money. They don't say it
that way, but the government, the Biden administration, is spending
so much that they are spending your savings into oblivion
and your paycheck into oblivion. That is happening, and that
(29:47):
is a way to destroy an economy, and it has
destroyed economies historically a very large sophisticated markets. So we'll
talk more about that, but you know, my collection of
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percent off your first order. We've got our friend Eric
Hovedy in the mix. He's running for a critical Senate
seat up in Wisconsin, which is also where the RNC
(32:02):
will be this summer, so no doubt we will be
drinking some Bruce Kes eating some cheese curds with him
during RNC week, although I will have to find gluten
free beer. Good to have you, Eric, thanks for coming
back on the show.
Speaker 9 (32:15):
Great being on the show. And we're gonna we're gonna
eat some brats as well. You can't appear, Yeah, you
gotta have braz Man.
Speaker 4 (32:22):
Bro bro any any excuse to eat some form of
the seasoned meat family. I'm generally a fan of Ron DeSantis.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
Here he is.
Speaker 4 (32:34):
I wanted because you're you're an economics guy just understands
or not like an economics professor, but somebody who has
to actually succeed in the markets. You took over community banks.
You have a background in the private sector. You've done
very well, and so you understand financing where where you
have to be right and you have to see what's
really happening in the economy around you. Governor Santis obviously
super sharp guy. I wanted you to react to what
(32:56):
he says about what's been going on with all the
spending and how effects Wisconsin Nights and everybody across the country.
Speaker 10 (33:02):
Play twelve This federal government has borrowed, printed, and spent
trillions and trillions of dollars far beyond what they should
have done over the last many years. We know that
when they were doing it, there were a lot of
people saying, you are going to have inflation. When the
Fed was printing so much money, people were saying, you're.
Speaker 11 (33:22):
Going to have inflation. And that's exactly what's happened. And
so that has been an invisible tax on every American.
People are paying more for groceries, they're paying more for
for goods, paying more for services.
Speaker 4 (33:36):
Tell us about this invisible tax that Ron DeSantis is
setting up here.
Speaker 9 (33:40):
So let me give you hard numbers behind it. So
Joe Biden spent basically four point seven trillion dollars after
the economy had already come out of COVID. Remember we
spent about four trillion dollars during the heart of COVID.
So he spent four point seven Well, when you spend
that amount of money, the Federal Reserve, which is the
(34:02):
bank for the federal government, had to monetize that debt,
and in that process they increase the money supply by
an enormous amount. Well, what is inflation? Inflation is too
much money chasing a fixed amount of goods and services.
So it's the reckless spending that has created this wave
(34:23):
of inflation that has driven up the cost of people's food.
They're gasoline everything that they touch in life. And it
was never transitory. That was just a total misnomer by
Jerome Powell who runs the FED. So they've been engaging
in voodoo economics and it has cost the American public dearly.
(34:46):
But there's a video I don't know if you guys
have shown it or have played it for your listeners
where it's Jared Bernstein, who's spent Biden's chief economic advisor
since his Vice presidents day. And this guy never was
trained in economics and they're literally asking them about MMT
(35:10):
modern monetary theory, and he can't even explain the most
basic things. And you watch this and go, yeah, you
wonder why we have all these negative consequences because we
have completely incompetent people leading our government and our government finances.
And that's the sad thing about it. So you talk
(35:31):
about an insidious tax, inflation is just a back toward
tax that whittles away the standard of living for every American.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
How much difference and better off. Do you think the
United States would be if everyone representing the United States
was like you and had had to run a successful
business at some point in time. Because what Buck and
I talk about sometimes is Joe Biden's been in government
for forty seven or forty eight years. You got AOC's
(36:01):
running around. I don't think they understand basic economics. And
if you don't understand basic economics, you end up making choices.
It feels like that many of our politicians make one
hundred percent.
Speaker 9 (36:16):
And look, we have a lot of that on the
Republican side too, And that's why we're in this position
where we have thirty four trillion dollars in debt, where
the interest costs on our debt now is bigger than
any expenditure in the federal government other than Social Security.
It's bigger just the cost of servicing our debt is
bigger than our Defense department, and by the way, in
(36:38):
a year, will be bigger than Social Security. And it's
putting Social Security at risk. So you know the problem
is you have these career politicians. Center Baldwin, who I'm
running against, is one of the most liberal. Their whole
life has been politics thirty eight years. It has been
in Washington, d C. For coming on twenty six years.
(37:01):
She knows nothing about how the real economy works, how
business works. Think of it this way. She's never had
to buy herself health insurance. She's always had health insurance
offered by whatever government position. I've not only had to
buy health insurance, I've had to buy it for thousands
of people how to manage it. I've seen the disaster
(37:23):
that Obamacare has created. So unless you've had to deal
with these issues and understand these issues and understand economics,
then you've got people sitting in Washington, which sadly we've
had for far too long, that don't know what the
hell they're doing, and they don't understand the consequences of
the decisions they're making.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
We're speaking to Eric Hovedy. He's running up in Wisconsin
for a critical Senate seat. He's running against career politician
Tammy Baldwin. And on the issue of the spending and
what it's doing, the economy price is certainly going up.
But I saw the statistic and it I found it
really concerning, Eric, and especially given that they're going to
(38:04):
try to pull whatever levers they can in the Biden
White House to make things look better than they are. Right,
they're going to put lipstick on the pig, so to speak.
Between now an election day. Even with that going on,
forty three percent of small businesses couldn't pay their rent
in full because of the economy. Right now, that was
just from Bloomberg. What's going on with that?
Speaker 9 (38:25):
Look the economic data that's being put out, I'm starting
to really question. I'll give you this one example employment data.
We've never had a time series like this where what
they report for job growth in a given month, because
they do it the first Friday of every month, and
then they'll always put in their revision for the prior
(38:45):
month we've had was at sixteen out of seventeen times
they say, oh, we've created this amount of jobs, and
then the next month they always lower how much jobs
they created the last time. Nor do they tell tell
you that most of all the jobs that have been
created are second time jobs, not full first time jobs.
(39:07):
So if you look at you know, underneath the belly,
if you look at what's happening with credit card debt
or auto debt and the default rates that are rising significantly,
particularly to those that are you know, in the lower
bottom quarter of you know, economic earnings, they're being crushed
(39:30):
by inflation. And you know, it's so sad.
Speaker 1 (39:33):
I was.
Speaker 9 (39:33):
I was with a younger person and this young gal
came up to me and said, I'm working two jobs.
I work all the time, and I'm still having to
live with my parents. And I decide how sad I mean,
clearly she wants to, you know, be standing on her
own two feet, but she can't get ahead, and she's
(39:54):
working hard. It's not somebody just CouchSurfing. So what they're doing,
they've really damaged the American economy and so many Americans
and on multiple different levels. And again, look at healthcare,
look at the cost of health care and the access
to healthcare. I really want more Republicans to start talking
(40:15):
about this issue because the consequences of what Obamacare, what
they passed, are all coming home to roost now with
access to care and the cost of care. So they've
created a total mess, and it's time we get real
people that understand how the economy works and how you know,
society works in there, you know, taking over, because that's
(40:37):
what our founding fathers wanted. They wanted citizen legislators, people
that brought expertise, went and served for a term or
two and then got the heck out of there. Instead,
we've created this career politician political class that's been running Washington,
d C.
Speaker 2 (40:55):
All right, I got a gift for you. Could be
a good thing, could be a bad thing. Serious, serious question.
I think I asked you about this last time. I'm
coming up now to Madison, Wisconsin. On September fourteenth, Alabama
Crimson Tide is going to be on the road playing
against your beloved Wisconsin Badgers. Should we do I know
(41:16):
you want to watch the game? Should we do some
form of fun Friday evening in Wisconsin area event for
all of the Alabama and Wisconsin fans that are going
to be in town. To me, this feels like a
no brainer. Be an awesome time.
Speaker 9 (41:32):
I think it would be a blast. I'm so excited
about this. You know, it's always fun when you get
big rivals from Earth from different conferences that haven't been
rivals in the past, but big well named program. So
we're really excited to have Alabama come up and we
(41:52):
look forward to putting on, you know, a great show
here in Madison, Wisconsin. It's a great space stadium Camp
Randall to watch a game. So we're super excited.
Speaker 2 (42:05):
We I will be there. I think I'm going to
be in town. We should talk about a fun Friday
event leading into that game on Saturday. Can't wait to
check it out. And I would imagine there are a
lot of Wisconsin Badger as well as Alabama Crimson Tide
fans listening to us right now who would like to
be a part of that. And oh, by the way,
you're also in the most important state maybe in the
(42:27):
entire country, not only for your Senate race, but for
who's going to be the next president of the United States.
Speaker 9 (42:33):
One hundred percent. I mean, look, I don't think Wisconsin's
the battleground state. I mean it's one to five. And
if I can win this Senate race, this can pretty
much not only assured you know, the next two years,
but potentially the next four and six years and we
move it from a hardcore progressive lefty to somebody with
(42:55):
common sense and you know it's a conservative. So yeah,
it's it's gonna be fun. Look forward to it and
drinking beer and eating brats and cheese kurds and watching
some great football and all the rest awesome.
Speaker 1 (43:11):
Cannot wait. It's gonna be fantastic.
Speaker 2 (43:13):
We'll see you then and certainly we'll have you on
between now and then for everything else associated with the
race as well.
Speaker 1 (43:22):
That is gonna be fun one. It's gonna be a
heck of the game.
Speaker 2 (43:24):
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your first order. GOVX savings for those who serve. Welcome
back in Clay, Travis buck Sexton Show appreciate all of
you hanging out with us as we roll through the
(45:52):
Tuesday edition of The Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. Encourage
all of you to go subscribe to the Clay and
buckshow on podcast. You can find us there. You can
take us with you anywhere. As we now enter into May,
a lot of people are gonna be getting out of
school soon. My kids, I was talking with them this
morning as I was taking them to school getting ready
(46:14):
for the day. They have a little bit over two
weeks left in the Nashville area. I know that's early
for other parts of the country. But you're gonna be
going on vacation, You're gonna be on the road. You
want to take us on the podcast with you. And
Buck pointed out yesterday, the iHeartRadio app is fantastic to download.
You can stream so many of your favorite stations with
(46:36):
you wherever you go around the country or around the world.
For your vacation coming up this summer, Join now by
Ryan Gerdusky and I say this finally one of our
favorite data nerds out there.
Speaker 9 (46:51):
Ryan.
Speaker 2 (46:51):
I think the last time we had you on was
a couple of months ago if I remember correctly, and
you were at that point.
Speaker 1 (46:59):
Yeah, Siled, you are.
Speaker 2 (47:01):
At that point becoming somewhat increasingly optimistic on Trump's chances
to win the race. So let me start with you
right now, since we last talked to you, as we
sit here almost exactly six months out, how would you
assess this Trump versus Biden race? Are you still optimistic
on Trump's side? What has the data shown you in
(47:23):
the last two months or so?
Speaker 1 (47:26):
Well?
Speaker 12 (47:26):
So I write this in the National Populist newsletter on
sub sec my National Populist newsletter, and he wants to subscribe.
There's basically a dichotomy of two conflicting regions of the country,
the Sun Belt and the russ Belt. That's really where
almost all of our swing states preside in one of
those two regions. The sun Belt is everything below the
thirty sixth parallel, so basically Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona and below.
(47:50):
And they include swing states or traditional swing states like Florida,
North Carolina, now Texas which is pretty much of Spring State,
and Arizona and Nevada. What we've seen in the Sun
Belt is those states Trump has a very healthy margin
outside the margin of error in most polls. Florida and
(48:12):
Texas are way beyond the marginal era. They're almost in
double digit territory, and even in North Carolina is basically there.
Trump is pulling about five points. Even in Nevada, Arizona,
and Georgia. Trump's lead in Arizona is about four points,
in Georgia is three point seven, and Nevada is three
point five. What's more interesting, if you look at it,
(48:34):
is where the averages have been for so long. This
isn't a new thing. Trump has led in Georgia since October,
He's led in North Carolina since last August, and he's
been that way with Arizona and Nevada since November. So
this has been six straight months and about lots of
news stories and lots of different headlines and lots of
(48:55):
money by the Biden administration Democratic Party being put into
these states that have had a little impact. Remembers I've
moved out point in Biden's favor, but not enough to
sit there and move them out of the margin of error.
Then there's the Roust Belt. The Rust Belt is places
mostly three big states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump has
(49:17):
been leading in the Ross Belt in all those areas,
but by very very small numbers by a point a
point and a half to two and a half points
in Michigan. That is not a safe place to be now.
That is remarkably better than he was in twenty sixteen
and twenty twenty, when state polling was very off in
twenty sixteen and somewhat off in twenty twenty. But Trump
(49:38):
has got much more to move, has a lot more
work to do in the Midwest that is older and
whiter than he does in the sun Belt, which is
younger and more diverse, and that will be the deciding
factor in this upcoming election.
Speaker 1 (49:52):
Hey, Ryan, it's buck.
Speaker 4 (49:54):
Where do you think the Democrats believe their best shots
at taking swings? We all know what those swing states are.
Where do they think they have their best shot? You
believe based on the polling and the data you can see.
Speaker 12 (50:07):
Well, absolutely, Pennsylvania is very very very important, Michigan, especially
with Robert F. Kenny Junior making the ballot in Michigan
and Wisconsin, those three places because they have while they
have a huge working class white population, there is a
very very very small Latino population, and as Latinos are
re orienting themselves much like white voters did in the
(50:29):
nineteen seventies and nineteen eighties, where conservative whites were no
longer voting Democrat, they we voting Republican for president. We're
seeing a lot of that among Latinos, where conservative Latinos
who traditionally vote Democrat are voting more and more Republican.
They don't have He does not have that boost. It's
going to be completely among college educated whites and working
class whites. And the thing that Trump has has the
(50:51):
numbers right now working in his favor. But the people
who vote often and vote continuously, especially college educated whites,
are very, very heavy in Joe Biden's camp. And that
is how Joe Biden could lose the entire Sunbelt, all
the swing states and the Sunbelts and still win the
presidency if he manages to hold on to enough working
(51:12):
class whites and college educated whites. Pew research in their
exit holes of twenty twenty, twenty seven percent of all
Biden voters were non college educated whites. That's a lot.
That is the second largest part of his coalition outside
of college educated whites. So these are tens of millions
of people that should be Republican, that would be Republican.
(51:35):
That positive for grabs if they try to appeal to them,
and that would be the main priority I think of
the Trump campaign.
Speaker 2 (51:42):
All right, this is a super nerd question. But correct
me if I'm wrong on the math. Here we are potentially,
if Biden were to hold on to the Midwest, Let's
say he won Wisconsin, Let's say he won Michigan, and
he won Pennsylvania. Based on what you're saying, Russ Belt
versus Sun Belt, if Trump flipped Georgia, if he flipped Nevada,
(52:04):
and if he flipped Arizona, it would come down potentially
to a two sixty nine to two sixty nine tie.
Speaker 11 (52:13):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (52:13):
If he wins the sun Belt loses the Rust Belt,
depending on what would happen in the Omaha Nebraska congressional seat,
the way that they divide out things in.
Speaker 1 (52:23):
Is that correct?
Speaker 12 (52:25):
Yes, that's correct.
Speaker 2 (52:26):
Yeah, because because would win Trump would win if this
got tossed into the House of Representatives, tied up at
two sixty nine, and by the way, that's not a
crazy result based on polling right now, right, if they.
Speaker 12 (52:39):
If the or But the thing is that Republicans have
to hold the House because what happens is not the
old Congress motes for the new Congress does so if republic.
Speaker 1 (52:50):
But it's by state.
Speaker 2 (52:51):
Sorry to nerd out even more, but it's by state
delegation right, not necessarily control of the House, and I
believe Republicans would be fair to still have more states.
But I mean this is this is how tight end
could be.
Speaker 12 (53:06):
Yes, it's it is a yes, that is one potential
depending how swing states in places like Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania
go where the majority of members could be Democrat or
Republican from either which state it is potential It is possible,
but yeah, that would mean like places like North Carolina
(53:27):
and Georgia with Delute vudding Republican. But there are a
number of swing states which would draw the majority of
the delegation being Democratic Republican in critical battlegrounds in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan,
so we'd have to wait and see Minnesota.
Speaker 4 (53:44):
We're speaking to Ryan Gardowski, National Populist Newsletter is his
sub stack.
Speaker 1 (53:49):
Go subscribe to it. Ryan.
Speaker 4 (53:51):
How's the money game looking right now? As I understand it,
The RNC has started out in a rough spot this
year in terms of cash on hand, but has been
really ramping up fundraising successfully ramping it up recently. What
can you tell us about about how that component of
it is lining up right now as we get closer
to this, I.
Speaker 12 (54:10):
Mean, Lard Trump has really done a number of good
work when it comes to She's definitely not spending money
like Ronal McDaniel was, which is a good thing. And
she's been increasing in her fundraising efforts. And the main
job of the RNC is too fundraise. The same job
with the DNC. One of the big problems for Hillary
Clinton in twenty sixteen was the DNC was functionally bankrupt
when she took it all when when she became the
(54:32):
party's nominee Obama really didn't fundraise very well for whatsoever.
But the problem that the RNC is having right now,
the Republicans are having right now is that they are
the state parties, which were ones very strong in a
number of states, are extremely weak. The Michigan State Party,
the Arizona State Party. They are in terrible shape a
(54:52):
number of them. And the reliance on state parties to
sit there and move the needle with which was intro
it was so important in twenty sixteen, is not available today.
I'll say on ports in twenty sixteen in Ohio, the
state party was so well run, but do check I
think ran at that point, but it was so well
(55:14):
run that on election Day of twenty sixteen and their
early get up the vote plan, by noon they had
stopped using any resources in Ohio and shifted everything to Michigan.
And Michigan obviously was won by I think less than
half a point, but by the Ohio GOP saying we
have this election of the bag, we want it, let's
move all of our resources to Michigan was so important
(55:36):
to helping flip that state and mobilize low propensity voters
and getting them out to vote. Ohio still is a
very good state party. Other states, though, do not, and
those resources are very, very badly needed when it comes
to helping elect people and helping elected president so Johnald Trump.
The one thing that the RNC and the Trump campaign
(55:57):
have not done is they do not have a lot
of state offices or local offices as of yet, and
Biden has a number. That doesn't mean a lot necessarily
because Trump hat very few in sixteen and Biden had
almost none in twenty, but in title races that get
out the vote effort does mean.
Speaker 1 (56:12):
A lot Ryan.
Speaker 2 (56:14):
In sixteen we saw Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all go
for Trump. In twenty we saw them all go for Biden.
Do you believe that it's likely that all three of
those states go the same direction in twenty four, either
for Biden or for Trump? Part one, Part two? If
(56:34):
you were analyzing this from Trump's perspective, do you believe
that Michigan, may be based on the Israel and Palestine situation,
has moved more than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (56:47):
If Trump were gonna win one.
Speaker 2 (56:49):
Of those three, which one or maybe ranked them in
likelihood of winning, do you think it's different than in
sixteen and twenty Well, one of.
Speaker 12 (56:58):
The big problems in twenty four Republicans was the Green
Party was not qualified on the ballot in either Wisconsin, Arizona,
or Georgia. They had all been thrown off the ballot,
and had the Green Party performed equally as well in
any of those states as they did in the neighboring state,
the election would have been different. Now, the Green Party,
as I understand it, is on the ballot in all
(57:19):
of those states. So a really hardcore progressive, which is
Jill Stein, who's campaigning on a pro Palestinian message, in
a pro Gaza statehood message is on the ballot all
those places, so that may make up a big thing.
RFK Junior I believe is on the ballot in Georgia
and Michigan. I'm not so sure about Arizona as of yet.
That will make up a certain difference. The reason that
(57:40):
those states really swung in twenty sixteen was there a
proportion of the population, specifically white college educated and non college educated,
who genuinely hated Hillary Clinton and couldn't And I portioned
the black population by the who hated Hillary Clinton either
wouldn't turn out for her, or when they did, they
voted for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein twenty sixteen, That
(58:01):
hatred did not happen in twenty twenty. They didn't feel
the same thing for Joe Biden. So although Trump improved
his performance among non college educated whites by a point
from sixty four to sixty five percent nationwide, the percentage
of the five or six percent that had sat out
or had voted for a third party came to Joe Biden.
And that's where the margin made the difference. The margin
(58:24):
was smaller because a lot of people who sat out
third party had come home to the Democratic Party. Now
that six to seven percent still exists today, they may
set out again. They may sit there and vote for
Joe Biden, or they may vote third party. Trump should
make a real appeal to those voters because non college
educated voters one they have. The economy is hurting them
(58:46):
the most too. They are the most fragile from mass
immigration as far as their jobs go. Conversations over AI
replacing their jobs is power amount that no one's really
talking about yet. And I'll put up one other last thing.
There is a huge, huge population in this country that
are that live in mobile home communities that are being
increasingly purchased by large companies that are displacing millions upon
(59:09):
millions of people, are threatening to displace millions upon millions
of people. That's a real conversation. And mobile home societies
communities rather are very large in swing states in this country.
Their biggest I think are Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona.
I think those are the top four. So that's a
very very important Democratic Speaking to working class white voters
right now is critical. In the same way that he
(59:30):
attempted to black voters in twenty twenty talking about the
Platinum Plan. There should be a plan for the white
working class Americans who feel completely unrecognized, and I think
speaking to them is critical at this moment when six
or seven percent of their vote could easily swing one
way or the other.
Speaker 4 (59:48):
Ryan or Dusky, everybody check out National Populist newsletter on substack.
Speaker 1 (59:53):
Ryan, keep your phone handy. We're gonna to talk to
you as this gets closer.
Speaker 2 (59:58):
By the way, do you think Trump is still winning
two months ago? You said yes, just yes or no?
Would he win if the election were today based on
your analysis?
Speaker 12 (01:00:06):
Yes, yes, absolutely, yes as all today.
Speaker 2 (01:00:09):
Yes, that's good to hear. We'll talk to you again soon.
Hopefully the result will stay the same. My Pillow twenty
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Speaker 5 (01:01:00):
He
Welcome to today's edition of the Clay Travis and Buck
Sexton Show podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Welcome in Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. We've got a
fun time coming for all of you. Eric Hovedy, who
is running for the Senate from Wisconsin, will join us
in the next hour. Ryan Gerdusky at the top of
the third hour to break down all of the data
and analytics as we sit six months away from election day.
(00:30):
But we begin today with the what I would say
is farcicle continuation of the New York City case against
Donald Trump. We have had Stormy Daniels on the witness
stand and absolutely insanely ridiculous continuation of the sham law
(00:52):
fair that has been taking place in New York City.
And before we get into Stormy Daniels and what she
might have said to me, the story here Buck and
we talked about this quite a lot yesterday with Andy
McCarthy is they haven't to me, really proven any criminality
(01:12):
on Donald Trump's behalf. And I'm gonna lay into that
in a moment, But you know that I like to
look at the odds markets you can gamble on basically anything,
and the odds that there is going to be a
felony conviction of Donald Trump have dropped to seventy five
percent likely. That sounds still like a lot, but it
(01:36):
means and the chances here have now, according to the
gambling markets moved up to a quarter that there is
no conviction at all. And I think that's because people
are paying attention here and again it comes down to
the jury and how well they apply the law. But
they haven't actually proven anything. And I want to play
(01:57):
a couple of cuts here cut. Here is Trump speaking
before he went in today using sorry cut three left
wing media reports about how the trial isn't going well
for prosecutors.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
This is him reading cut three.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Some of the statements made about this witch hunt On
CNN Fake New CNN Michael Barre said the proof of
falsifying records has not been accomplished. On Good Morning America,
they said, we heard that expense fayments to lawyers are
legal expenses. Also, NBC Today show the challengers that there
(02:40):
is no smoking gun, no email on or tape to
prove the president's in tenth they don't have a way
to prove that.
Speaker 1 (02:47):
That's NBC Today's show.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
And then Fox News Kadi Cha Casski said that the
gag order is unconstitutional, which of course it is.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
I think all that's true, Buck, and I will play
a couple of those cuts that he referenced here in
a moment. But ultimately, I think what even left wing
political commentators who have some legal basis and knowledge are
having to recognize is what we've told you for some time.
This is an incredibly weak case. But even within that context,
(03:20):
prosecutors are not doing a very good job actually proving
a crime was committed here.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Well, I think it really does matter to look.
Speaker 4 (03:28):
At the language we say this when it comes to immigration,
for example, illegal immigration. Right now, they want you to
say newly arrived, and before that it was undocumented, and
before that it was illegal immigrant, and before that it
was legal alien. And they've been winning the argument by
changing the language.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Right.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
That's true on many things. The left is unfortunately better
at this than we tend to be, because there's something
underhanded about it. I mean, they're shifting language without addressing
the argument. But I just think, Clay, we talked about
a hush money trial. A hush money isn't a crime, correct,
So that's not you know, it's almost like saying the
(04:08):
stormy Daniels alleged affair trial. Well, hold on a second.
An affair not that you know, it's not a good thing,
but an affair is not illegal. So it's not an
affair trial. It's not a hush money trial. It is
a business records trial. And even when people say it
was it's about a campaign finance violation. The campaign finance
(04:31):
violation component of it is assumed right. The falsification of
the business record allegedly occurred so that it wouldn't get
into the realm of a reportable campaign finance issue. And
therefore there's a broader scheme here, which is how he
turns it into a felony, and that this is legal alchemy.
(04:53):
This is turning a nothing burger into a nothing burger
with cheese.
Speaker 1 (04:58):
And we are seeing this.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
All all unfold before our very eyes in a way
that once again I think Democrats you're starting they're starting
to be concerned about the outcome here. You're seeing some
of the legal analysts. There are legal analysts who go
on MSNBC, for example, whose only goal is to say
whatever they think the brainwash lib audience wants. There are
(05:22):
some who want to do that, but also don't want
to look like total jackasses and say things that make
a fool of them when the facts actually come out.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
There aren't many of them.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
But there are a few. You've already started to see them.
I think Clay Hedging a little bit saying, Oh, I
wish this was really about the January sixth case and
not this. Oh, hold on a second, I thought that
Alvin Bragg was, you know, the new sheriff in town
to get justice.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Uh, this is slowly.
Speaker 4 (05:49):
I wouldn't say it's falling apart, but there are there
are cracks in the wall here.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Something's happening.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
And remember the only reason this is not a misdemeanor
is because they're claiming that there was a second crime
that was committed while not necessarily really claiming and proving
the second crime, which feels to me like legally untenable terrain,
which is why I said yesterday, I think this is
going to get tossed. And here's the other thing that
(06:17):
I think is well. Well, first of all, let's play
that cut that Trump referenced. I believe it is cut five.
This is Attorney Michael Moore, not the filmmaker, saying that
proof of Trump falsifying records hasn't been accomplished yet.
Speaker 5 (06:33):
Cut testim it was important because it starts to connect
some of the dots, and that is, you know, can
you actually put a pin in Donald Trump's hand? Can
you put a check in his hand? Under his signature?
But that really is not the crux of the government's case.
The case deals with heavy falsified records as it relates
to the federal election law, and so that has not
(06:53):
been accomplished yet.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
I think that's important. Also, Bara, I might be mispronouncing
his name, Burrara, long time SDN Y prosecutor.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Right, he was high up and he was the US
attorney for the Southern District of New York. Yes, here
he is saying, you know, this is not the crime
of the century.
Speaker 6 (07:14):
I think based on what happened today and how uninspiring
the crossing examination was. Because the documents largely speak for themselves.
The prosecution has basically proven the basic case, which is
falsification of business records, which people can argue is or
is not the crime of the century.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
It's a misdemeanor.
Speaker 6 (07:31):
The New York law recognized it as a misdemeanor, and
we can argue and see how the evidence comes in
with respect to the next phase, which is whether that
can be accelerated into a felony if it was done
for the purposes of concealing or furthering some other crime,
an election law crime or a tax crime.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
But the basic fundamental.
Speaker 6 (07:49):
Case, the elements of which were laid out in crystallized
form today in court, I think we're made.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Out Okay, So what I would say buck is and
this is what we talked about a little bit with
Andy McCarthy. The more I read, and obviously we can't
listen to it because a lot of this is taking
place while we're on air and we're not able.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
To get audio.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
But to me, Trump has a really strong argument here
that the reason he paid Stormy Daniels was not for
election related reasons, but to try to avoid family embarrassment.
And he did that already for someone who was a
dorman claiming that he had an illegitimate child. I think
(08:32):
most people out there who were married, whether it's true
or not, would not want this story out there.
Speaker 4 (08:37):
Yeah, you know, But I also think we shouldn't lose
sight of the fact that prosecutorial discretion is a very
powerful tool and it should have been used here with
all the facts of the case presented to do exactly
what the federal government did, which is say, there's nothing
to do here, there's nothing to see here, there's no
(08:59):
dan image, there's no crime, there's no harm, there's no loss,
and there's no argument otherwise.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
By the way, I mean, this whole thing is an absurdity.
Speaker 4 (09:10):
And I do think we're at the place now, we're
the same way that we to just keep it honest
and keep it real.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Here.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
You know, we've woar gamed what happens if he's found guilty.
Will they send him to prison? Will they put him
under house arrest? And we've talked this through and we
don't have the answers, but we're looking at what the
possible pathways are, what the outcomes are here. I think
we should also start to think about what happens if
they actually get a not guilty verdict?
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Oh yeah, And what does that do to the other prosecutions,
which are clearly political? What does that do to the
media arts you mean not guilty or you mean that
it is just a mistrial, like I, oh, not guilty?
Speaker 2 (09:48):
If they got it not guilty verdict? If Trump won
this trial, twelve jurors said he didn't do this. I mean,
I think there's still is z zero percent chance of
that because I think.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
Zero percent, yeah, and I'm not I wouldn't even say
there's a zero percent chance that I wake up tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
So I think zero percent is a little too strong.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
There's there is no way twelve New York City jurors,
it's possible to see a jury that doesn't hate Trump.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
What I say, he's guilty, I think what we have seen.
Speaker 4 (10:21):
Yeah, but we've seen how this plays out if one
person says he's guilty and everyone else is like, this
is a sham, This is a scam. Look, I think
this is a one in ten shot. I'm not trying
to get too crazy. Okay, I did like twenty thousand.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
No, I think, yes, it's zero. It rounds down to zero.
Speaker 4 (10:40):
This is even if they hate Trump. People who are
you know they're showing up to these core proceedings.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
There's you are way too optimistic all of a sudden
for that.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
I think I think it's ninety percent that Trump is
going to get convicted. And do you think I'm too optimistic?
Speaker 4 (10:54):
I'm just saying no, I used to be ninety nine, Okay,
I used to be ninety nine I would make I.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Think there's a twenty five percent chance all twelve won't
say guilty, but for all twelve to say not guilty,
I think is around down to zero, like one in
twenty thousand or something like that. Now, I think there's
a twenty five percent chance ish maybe even higher, that
there's at least one journey who will refuse to say
he's guilty. I'll just tell you this.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
I mean, I saw what was going on in the
States with Colorado and Maine, and my inclination was so
do Mayor and Catanji Brown Jackson are the most left
wing and clearly politicized jurists who have ever sat on
the Supreme Court. And even they said, guys, this is
(11:43):
too gross.
Speaker 1 (11:44):
You can't do.
Speaker 4 (11:45):
This because of what it does to the system, A
system that even the craziest leftists want to yes corrupt,
but use for their own purposes down the line. This
trial is such a joke that I do think the
outlier possibilities need to be considered. I'm not betting you
a steak on this one because I just like collecting
steaks from you. I don't like it to go the
(12:06):
other way. Trump I'm merely saying, guilty verdict. It would
they would, it would, I would be glorious. I don't
even know what they would do on MSNBC. I think
they might just in the network effectively. I mean, a
hung jury would be is a win. It's a win
for sure, and it's pretty darn close, uh in terms
(12:29):
of the effect. I don't think the effect afterwards of
a not guilty versus a hung jury matters to Trump
all that much under the circumstances. But I'm just saying
this is it's so weak, and now we're now we're
not able to see the court proceedings, so everything is
what's being reported on. But this, this is the honestly
(12:50):
the dumbest criminal trial I have ever heard of in
my life. I've never heard of someone being prosecuted for
a felony for less than Donald Trump is right now.
I cannot And I was in counter terrorism cases where
people lied to the FEDS about things and they got
jammed up, and people did financial structuring and they got
(13:11):
jammed up, and you know, I've seen some stuff that's
pretty borderline. This is the most absurd felony prosecution of
anyone that I can think of and they're doing it
to a leading presidential candidate in the election year. It's
so gross that you have to think that there are
some possibilities here that people wake up. It's so wrong
(13:34):
that I think you have to leave open that chance.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
But again, the odds are with you. But then again,
how did your horse do there, mister odds guy? Horse
lost by like a head.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
I mean it was a three way tie and it
was a ten to one payout that I almost hit on.
So carry had some had some good success. I think
she won the most, went like three for three on
bat out at the Kentucky Derby.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
So I should I should just like her run the
stock portfolio. Anyway, we'll see. We'll take some of your
calls too. And by the way, our good friend Christy
Nome went on with our good friend Jesse Waters last night.
I really think that she's trying to light herself on
fire at this point. I watched the interview live and
I just thought to myself, does her staff hater?
Speaker 1 (14:19):
What is going on here?
Speaker 2 (14:20):
We'll have some more fun ridiculously with that as well.
But I want to tell you I was just out
in Seattle and I spoke at Hillsdale's big event out there,
and I sat next to doctor Larry Arn, who runs Hillsdale,
and I got to tell you, as the father of
three kids, I thought to myself, I would be ecstatic
if one of my boys ended up going to Hillsdale College,
because you know what they do.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
They do something radical.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
They actually teach them and give them an education, hold
them accountable, make them work. And the kids coming out
of Hillsdale are kicking ass all over the country doing
so many different great things. And you can read about
the battles that Hillsdale is fighting in Imprimus. It's their
free digestive life liberty that goes to more than six
and a half million homes. In businesses, Imprimus will give
(15:05):
you a smart constitutional commentary from people like Christopher Rufo,
Victor Davis Hansen, Heather MacDonald and doctor Larry Arn, who
I sat next to an actual doctor, by the way,
unlike doctor Jill Biden. You can receive a free subscription
at clayanbuck for Hillsdale dot com right now, no cost,
no obligation. Hillsdale produces and mails and Primus as part
(15:27):
of its educational mission on behalf of Liberty. Sign up
today at clayanbuckfo Hillsdale dot com.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
The campus protest.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Let's take a look at the latest with hoes the
Biden base out on college campuses, and this is still ongoing.
There are now, I think a lot of people who
are wondering, will they try to disrupt graduation ceremony even
(16:06):
if they have been cleared out? Also, will they do
anything at the Chicago DNC, the Democratic National Convention, which
will be this summer. Certainly possible, and that would harken
back to sixty eight and I think that would be
a bad look for the Democrats, but who knows. And
then there's some other feelings play that I wanted to
get into here, or some sense of what's happening from
(16:30):
those who were watching this whole thing playoff. First of all,
as I mentioned the situation with the Israel Hamas war,
Israel is poised to go into Rafa and it's the
last bastard in the last holdout area of Hamas in
the very southern portion of Gaza, and there's concern.
Speaker 7 (16:53):
Now.
Speaker 4 (16:54):
I think they are negotiations that are happening, and there's
a lot of politics about this. Keep in mind, Moss
could have ended this a long time ago. Amas could
have stopped all of this, Hamas chooses not to stop it.
Hamas still has hostages. There are many questions, for a
tragic how many of those hostages, including there are some
Americans held hostage, are still alive. I think we're going
(17:16):
to find that the answer to that is tragically far
lower than would be expected if Hamas was not run
by barbarous, violent thugs, which it is. And so that's
all ongoing in the background. The Biden administration. There's now
back and forth over whether they delayed this arm shipment
(17:36):
of the Israelis intentionally or not. It certainly looked like
some kind of a win for the protesters. Okay, now
we'll get to the other part of this, which is
that there are a lot of as much as we
focus on the crazy Bolsheviks of higher education, and there's
a lot of that going on. You know, there's an
Axios poll clear that just came out that had the
(17:57):
following numbers, and I think it's a reminder that while
there's far too much craziness on the campus and the
professors are overwhelmingly nuts, not all. There's some great conservative
professors and there's some great campuses with nothing but conservative professors, right,
I mean, Clay, You've spoke to Hillsdale recently, But the
(18:18):
overwhelming majority of professors, certainly in the liberal arts, are
nuts and and go along with this stuff and are
a part of you know, BLM and pro hamas Er,
you know, down with Israel and all this, all this stuff,
all the stuff that goes together, climate change, all this.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
Trump is going to destroy the world. But there are
a lot of normal.
Speaker 4 (18:36):
People on campus still, or at least more normal. Sixty
seven percent, according to the Saxio's poll, say occupying campus
buildings is unacceptable. Ninety percent say blocking pro Israel students
from parts of campus is unacceptable fifty eight percent majority.
But I think it should be bigger, say refusing a
(18:59):
university's order to disperse is unacceptable, that number should be higher.
But when you have almost seventy percent recognizing that the
occupation of buildings is just you can't do that, and
ninety percent saying you can't tell Jewish students you're not
welcome in this part of campus, how about ten percent
of people are okay with telling Jewish students you're not
welcome in this part of campus. That actually seems a
(19:21):
little bit alarming to me. And one hundred percent of
them are voting Democrats.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
Just I mean this is entirely I mean that's like
ninety percent is good. But like restricting anybody based on
their ethnicity, or their gender or their sexuality to be
able to walk through campus, that's so a little bit
ominous to me, and I think speaks to that ten
percent base that's out there that's doing this.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
But some of that is encouraging, as you're laying out.
So this is.
Speaker 4 (19:49):
Mario Torres speaking. He is a custodian at janitor. I mean,
I think janitor is an entirely honorable profession. I don't
know why we have to play custodian. Jenner is the
same thing. Janitor as every bit as honorable profession as custodian,
et cetera. But fine, I'll use the term custodian just
you know, I think it's a little unnecessary. But the
(20:11):
Columbia University custodian Mario Torres saying that the school should
have done more to protect them and that the school, really,
Columbia University, was kind of asleep at the wheel for
this whole thing.
Speaker 7 (20:22):
Play one, is Columbia going to retaliate and find a
reason to fire me. Is is someone going to come
after me? We are taking a big risk, you know,
doing this.
Speaker 8 (20:32):
But I I think that I think that they failed,
they failed us, and I think that's that's the that's
the bigger story. They failed us. They should have done
more to protect us, and they did it.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
They absolutely didn't Clay.
Speaker 4 (20:46):
There are people in this process who have been treated
as this is unfolded really badly, and there's all this
concern of, oh, what about are we being too harsh
with the protesters? And you know, what about the people
who have been under lunatic threat from the occupations that
(21:07):
are happening, or the people that want to just go
to class and they've paid money to be there and
they want to have a normal experience at the end
of their school year. Like there are a lot of
victims here. The protesters are not victims. They've created this
whole thing themselves.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
And really there seems to be this idea.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
I'm sure you saw that UCLA has gone remote all
week because people aren't able to move around on campus
freely and safely. GW which is where I went in Washington,
d C, has been begging for the Metro Police in
DC to come and clean up the protesters, but the
mayor of DC, Muriel Bowser, will not allow it to occur.
Speaker 1 (21:50):
All of this is chaotic.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
The question is at this point, I think will it
occur around found the Democrat National Convention in August in Chicago?
Speaker 1 (22:05):
Because if it does?
Speaker 2 (22:06):
And I think you said, you're you're not optimistic or
maybe optimist or a word, but you're you're not of
the belief that it will because you think Democrats altern it.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
Can I tell you why I think that is? Yeah,
because I think that these are these are useful idiots.
And remember there's many tiers, as many layers here. You
have the useful idiots who are you know, a junior
at Columbia or you know, a senior at GW or whatever,
and they actually believe that this has some.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
Merit and they're the good guys here.
Speaker 4 (22:38):
But there's also the professional agitators and protesters who have
been in the mix. We know this because they've been arrested.
We have their mugshots and they're like, you know, they're
in their fifties. They're like retirees who are showing up
to protest this. I mean, it's clear, they're not undergrads.
And uh, what you have I think is going to
be the Soros funded left is going to recognize that
(23:03):
trying to foment these protests that the DNC is problematic,
is not helping the cause ultimately, because Biden will either
either give them the policies they want or bend the
knee if enough pressure is on him to be a leftist.
So they want him to be president. They do not
want Donald Trump to be president. So that's what they
(23:24):
show up in Milwaukee. Where will be that might yes,
that I could see for sure, but I mean I
assume that Trump it's tough to gauge, like obviously there'll
be lunatics protesting Trump all over the place. I don't
know if it'll be enough to make a mess, And
actually it'll be a bad look. I think it'll be
a bad look for them if it gets out of hand,
and if they're just standing there with here's the thing.
(23:46):
The reason they do all this childish nonsense with the
encampments and in the occupying buildings and we refuse to
leave and all this is because if they were just
standing around channing slogans, nobody cares. Here a bunch of imbeciles.
You're not convincing anyone of anything, so that's why they
do these things. It's like lying down in the street
to make you, you know, three hours late for work because
the highways blocked.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Like.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
These people have no good arguments, so they inflict themselves
upon the normal people.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
I wonder if they're able to turn this off. They
dialed up the crazy to such an extent. I think
what they want to do is jump this energy into
BLM again. I think if you could go into their
sort of hive mind, what they're hoping for is the
(24:36):
energy that they've unlocked with the Hamas protests and the
anti Israel protest. They hope to be able to combine
it with something BLM related because the BLM protests are
super positive for them. Now here's the challenge in general
with protests. When you're in all of the positions of power,
(24:56):
how does that play with independent voters? Because it's one
thing when you can kind of drag it around as
a weight on Donald Trump in twenty twenty oh, look,
the country's falling apart. This is all Donald Trump's fault.
When you're in basically control of the entire government, I know,
we got a two or three seat majority in the House,
(25:18):
Republicans do. But basically you've got Democrats in the Senate.
You've got complete control in the White House. Right now,
Does it work against Joe Biden if there's any kind
of unrest, even if it's motivated like BLM was by
the George Floyd related incident, I don't know how that
(25:39):
plays if you're in the White House.
Speaker 4 (25:42):
Yeah, it depends on what the issue is and how
they're going about it. Remember, while all the BLM two
point zero stuff was happening, obviously Trump was president, and
so there was this implicit Oh, the racist Donald Trump
president is in office, and so that's why one cop
put a knee on the shoulder of you know, like
(26:05):
it's Trump's fault somehow. What happened in Minnesota with with
one cop actually was you know, unfortunately they threw the
other cop in prison to the one who's just there.
I mean, you know, it was it was total injustice.
By the way, these officers, none of them wanted to
hurt anybody, Uh, the idea that they should. That one
what's his name got like Chauvin got like twenty years
(26:26):
or something.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
I mean, it's it's it. They were absolutely just handed
over to the mob.
Speaker 4 (26:31):
It was wrong. It was mob justice. And now I
think we're allowed to actually finally talk about what's going
on there. Maybe that's been the case for a while,
but Clay, I think that it even if they mobilize
and Biden is in power, the problem is the people
who do not go along with Biden, Right, Biden would
(26:53):
get so much more done. Biden would have achieved so
much more for the black community, let's say, in America
under his tenure. Now, the black community, I think knows
this is not true, but the narrative would be Biden
would have achieved so much if only the Trump Republicans
weren't standing in his way. So anything that they protest
(27:15):
is our fault somehow. On the Israel issue, it's a
little bit more bipartisan, but generally speaking, they always have
a way to say that is the fault of the
other side, even when they're in power, because we should
just go along with everything they want. If we went
along with everything they want, then there wouldn't be these problems.
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Right.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
But Biden, to the earlier point I made, he is
losing support among particularly young blackmail voters and If Biden
does not get ninety percent plus of the black vote,
it's all overh.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
No way he wins.
Speaker 4 (27:45):
So I think that's I think there are encouraging signs
that the usual Democrat playbook of lies will not rest.
And again encouraging signs. I know, who knows what's going
to happen, but I do see some reason for optimism.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
Look at that CLI.
Speaker 4 (28:00):
I'm optimistic, although the Boy Scouts did just change their name.
Have you seen this, Yes, I saw that story. I mean,
you saying that you thought there was a possibility for
a not guilty verdict for Trump is maybe the most
optimistic thing I've heard you say in months. I said
ten percent shot. I think it's that's a pretty high percent.
You know, I think that that's well. I would have
(28:20):
said it was one until this week. But I think
it's such a debacle. And also it's so clear as
they're having the Stormy Daniels testimony that they really just
want to humiliate Donald Trump. And if they took the
law seriously and if this really was about justice and
about our sacred democracy, they wouldn't have some very sad
(28:44):
former porn star telling tales from twenty years ago about
something that Trump completely denies, but even irrespective of that,
certainly not criminal. And why are we having this told
again in a court twenty years later?
Speaker 1 (29:01):
What is the purpose of this?
Speaker 4 (29:02):
They just want to humiliate him play They hate him
so much that it makes them irrational. That is true
of the anti Trump Democrats across the board. They lose
context and it looks like they've lost context and they've
lost their judgment when it comes to all of these
criminal trials. I'm hoping that that's the case. Six SI
your calls and this also Eric Hovdy, running for Wisconsin
(29:24):
Senate going to join us. I want to talk to
him about the economy, Biden economy, some of the very
troubling headwinds out there, and basically and people realizing the
government's just taking away your money. They don't say it
that way, but the government, the Biden administration, is spending
so much that they are spending your savings into oblivion
and your paycheck into oblivion. That is happening, and that
(29:47):
is a way to destroy an economy, and it has
destroyed economies historically a very large sophisticated markets. So we'll
talk more about that, but you know, my collection of
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my name buck as your promo code to get ten
percent off your first order. We've got our friend Eric
Hovedy in the mix. He's running for a critical Senate
seat up in Wisconsin, which is also where the RNC
(32:02):
will be this summer, so no doubt we will be
drinking some Bruce Kes eating some cheese curds with him
during RNC week, although I will have to find gluten
free beer. Good to have you, Eric, thanks for coming
back on the show.
Speaker 9 (32:15):
Great being on the show. And we're gonna we're gonna
eat some brats as well. You can't appear, Yeah, you
gotta have braz Man.
Speaker 4 (32:22):
Bro bro any any excuse to eat some form of
the seasoned meat family. I'm generally a fan of Ron DeSantis.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
Here he is.
Speaker 4 (32:34):
I wanted because you're you're an economics guy just understands
or not like an economics professor, but somebody who has
to actually succeed in the markets. You took over community banks.
You have a background in the private sector. You've done
very well, and so you understand financing where where you
have to be right and you have to see what's
really happening in the economy around you. Governor Santis obviously
super sharp guy. I wanted you to react to what
(32:56):
he says about what's been going on with all the
spending and how effects Wisconsin Nights and everybody across the country.
Speaker 10 (33:02):
Play twelve This federal government has borrowed, printed, and spent
trillions and trillions of dollars far beyond what they should
have done over the last many years. We know that
when they were doing it, there were a lot of
people saying, you are going to have inflation. When the
Fed was printing so much money, people were saying, you're.
Speaker 11 (33:22):
Going to have inflation. And that's exactly what's happened. And
so that has been an invisible tax on every American.
People are paying more for groceries, they're paying more for
for goods, paying more for services.
Speaker 4 (33:36):
Tell us about this invisible tax that Ron DeSantis is
setting up here.
Speaker 9 (33:40):
So let me give you hard numbers behind it. So
Joe Biden spent basically four point seven trillion dollars after
the economy had already come out of COVID. Remember we
spent about four trillion dollars during the heart of COVID.
So he spent four point seven Well, when you spend
that amount of money, the Federal Reserve, which is the
(34:02):
bank for the federal government, had to monetize that debt,
and in that process they increase the money supply by
an enormous amount. Well, what is inflation? Inflation is too
much money chasing a fixed amount of goods and services.
So it's the reckless spending that has created this wave
(34:23):
of inflation that has driven up the cost of people's food.
They're gasoline everything that they touch in life. And it
was never transitory. That was just a total misnomer by
Jerome Powell who runs the FED. So they've been engaging
in voodoo economics and it has cost the American public dearly.
(34:46):
But there's a video I don't know if you guys
have shown it or have played it for your listeners
where it's Jared Bernstein, who's spent Biden's chief economic advisor
since his Vice presidents day. And this guy never was
trained in economics and they're literally asking them about MMT
(35:10):
modern monetary theory, and he can't even explain the most
basic things. And you watch this and go, yeah, you
wonder why we have all these negative consequences because we
have completely incompetent people leading our government and our government finances.
And that's the sad thing about it. So you talk
(35:31):
about an insidious tax, inflation is just a back toward
tax that whittles away the standard of living for every American.
Speaker 2 (35:40):
How much difference and better off. Do you think the
United States would be if everyone representing the United States
was like you and had had to run a successful
business at some point in time. Because what Buck and
I talk about sometimes is Joe Biden's been in government
for forty seven or forty eight years. You got AOC's
(36:01):
running around. I don't think they understand basic economics. And
if you don't understand basic economics, you end up making choices.
It feels like that many of our politicians make one
hundred percent.
Speaker 9 (36:16):
And look, we have a lot of that on the
Republican side too, And that's why we're in this position
where we have thirty four trillion dollars in debt, where
the interest costs on our debt now is bigger than
any expenditure in the federal government other than Social Security.
It's bigger just the cost of servicing our debt is
bigger than our Defense department, and by the way, in
(36:38):
a year, will be bigger than Social Security. And it's
putting Social Security at risk. So you know the problem
is you have these career politicians. Center Baldwin, who I'm
running against, is one of the most liberal. Their whole
life has been politics thirty eight years. It has been
in Washington, d C. For coming on twenty six years.
(37:01):
She knows nothing about how the real economy works, how
business works. Think of it this way. She's never had
to buy herself health insurance. She's always had health insurance
offered by whatever government position. I've not only had to
buy health insurance, I've had to buy it for thousands
of people how to manage it. I've seen the disaster
(37:23):
that Obamacare has created. So unless you've had to deal
with these issues and understand these issues and understand economics,
then you've got people sitting in Washington, which sadly we've
had for far too long, that don't know what the
hell they're doing, and they don't understand the consequences of
the decisions they're making.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
We're speaking to Eric Hovedy. He's running up in Wisconsin
for a critical Senate seat. He's running against career politician
Tammy Baldwin. And on the issue of the spending and
what it's doing, the economy price is certainly going up.
But I saw the statistic and it I found it
really concerning, Eric, and especially given that they're going to
(38:04):
try to pull whatever levers they can in the Biden
White House to make things look better than they are. Right,
they're going to put lipstick on the pig, so to speak.
Between now an election day. Even with that going on,
forty three percent of small businesses couldn't pay their rent
in full because of the economy. Right now, that was
just from Bloomberg. What's going on with that?
Speaker 9 (38:25):
Look the economic data that's being put out, I'm starting
to really question. I'll give you this one example employment data.
We've never had a time series like this where what
they report for job growth in a given month, because
they do it the first Friday of every month, and
then they'll always put in their revision for the prior
(38:45):
month we've had was at sixteen out of seventeen times
they say, oh, we've created this amount of jobs, and
then the next month they always lower how much jobs
they created the last time. Nor do they tell tell
you that most of all the jobs that have been
created are second time jobs, not full first time jobs.
(39:07):
So if you look at you know, underneath the belly,
if you look at what's happening with credit card debt
or auto debt and the default rates that are rising significantly,
particularly to those that are you know, in the lower
bottom quarter of you know, economic earnings, they're being crushed
(39:30):
by inflation. And you know, it's so sad.
Speaker 1 (39:33):
I was.
Speaker 9 (39:33):
I was with a younger person and this young gal
came up to me and said, I'm working two jobs.
I work all the time, and I'm still having to
live with my parents. And I decide how sad I mean,
clearly she wants to, you know, be standing on her
own two feet, but she can't get ahead, and she's
(39:54):
working hard. It's not somebody just CouchSurfing. So what they're doing,
they've really damaged the American economy and so many Americans
and on multiple different levels. And again, look at healthcare,
look at the cost of health care and the access
to healthcare. I really want more Republicans to start talking
(40:15):
about this issue because the consequences of what Obamacare, what
they passed, are all coming home to roost now with
access to care and the cost of care. So they've
created a total mess, and it's time we get real
people that understand how the economy works and how you know,
society works in there, you know, taking over, because that's
(40:37):
what our founding fathers wanted. They wanted citizen legislators, people
that brought expertise, went and served for a term or
two and then got the heck out of there. Instead,
we've created this career politician political class that's been running Washington,
d C.
Speaker 2 (40:55):
All right, I got a gift for you. Could be
a good thing, could be a bad thing. Serious, serious question.
I think I asked you about this last time. I'm
coming up now to Madison, Wisconsin. On September fourteenth, Alabama
Crimson Tide is going to be on the road playing
against your beloved Wisconsin Badgers. Should we do I know
(41:16):
you want to watch the game? Should we do some
form of fun Friday evening in Wisconsin area event for
all of the Alabama and Wisconsin fans that are going
to be in town. To me, this feels like a
no brainer. Be an awesome time.
Speaker 9 (41:32):
I think it would be a blast. I'm so excited
about this. You know, it's always fun when you get
big rivals from Earth from different conferences that haven't been
rivals in the past, but big well named program. So
we're really excited to have Alabama come up and we
(41:52):
look forward to putting on, you know, a great show
here in Madison, Wisconsin. It's a great space stadium Camp
Randall to watch a game. So we're super excited.
Speaker 2 (42:05):
We I will be there. I think I'm going to
be in town. We should talk about a fun Friday
event leading into that game on Saturday. Can't wait to
check it out. And I would imagine there are a
lot of Wisconsin Badger as well as Alabama Crimson Tide
fans listening to us right now who would like to
be a part of that. And oh, by the way,
you're also in the most important state maybe in the
(42:27):
entire country, not only for your Senate race, but for
who's going to be the next president of the United States.
Speaker 9 (42:33):
One hundred percent. I mean, look, I don't think Wisconsin's
the battleground state. I mean it's one to five. And
if I can win this Senate race, this can pretty
much not only assured you know, the next two years,
but potentially the next four and six years and we
move it from a hardcore progressive lefty to somebody with
(42:55):
common sense and you know it's a conservative. So yeah,
it's it's gonna be fun. Look forward to it and
drinking beer and eating brats and cheese kurds and watching
some great football and all the rest awesome.
Speaker 1 (43:11):
Cannot wait. It's gonna be fantastic.
Speaker 2 (43:13):
We'll see you then and certainly we'll have you on
between now and then for everything else associated with the
race as well.
Speaker 1 (43:22):
That is gonna be fun one. It's gonna be a
heck of the game.
Speaker 2 (43:24):
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back in Clay, Travis buck Sexton Show appreciate all of
you hanging out with us as we roll through the
(45:52):
Tuesday edition of The Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. Encourage
all of you to go subscribe to the Clay and
buckshow on podcast. You can find us there. You can
take us with you anywhere. As we now enter into May,
a lot of people are gonna be getting out of
school soon. My kids, I was talking with them this
morning as I was taking them to school getting ready
(46:14):
for the day. They have a little bit over two
weeks left in the Nashville area. I know that's early
for other parts of the country. But you're gonna be
going on vacation, You're gonna be on the road. You
want to take us on the podcast with you. And
Buck pointed out yesterday, the iHeartRadio app is fantastic to download.
You can stream so many of your favorite stations with
(46:36):
you wherever you go around the country or around the world.
For your vacation coming up this summer, Join now by
Ryan Gerdusky and I say this finally one of our
favorite data nerds out there.
Speaker 9 (46:51):
Ryan.
Speaker 2 (46:51):
I think the last time we had you on was
a couple of months ago if I remember correctly, and
you were at that point.
Speaker 1 (46:59):
Yeah, Siled, you are.
Speaker 2 (47:01):
At that point becoming somewhat increasingly optimistic on Trump's chances
to win the race. So let me start with you
right now, since we last talked to you, as we
sit here almost exactly six months out, how would you
assess this Trump versus Biden race? Are you still optimistic
on Trump's side? What has the data shown you in
(47:23):
the last two months or so?
Speaker 1 (47:26):
Well?
Speaker 12 (47:26):
So I write this in the National Populist newsletter on
sub sec my National Populist newsletter, and he wants to subscribe.
There's basically a dichotomy of two conflicting regions of the country,
the Sun Belt and the russ Belt. That's really where
almost all of our swing states preside in one of
those two regions. The sun Belt is everything below the
thirty sixth parallel, so basically Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona and below.
(47:50):
And they include swing states or traditional swing states like Florida,
North Carolina, now Texas which is pretty much of Spring State,
and Arizona and Nevada. What we've seen in the Sun
Belt is those states Trump has a very healthy margin
outside the margin of error in most polls. Florida and
(48:12):
Texas are way beyond the marginal era. They're almost in
double digit territory, and even in North Carolina is basically there.
Trump is pulling about five points. Even in Nevada, Arizona,
and Georgia. Trump's lead in Arizona is about four points,
in Georgia is three point seven, and Nevada is three
point five. What's more interesting, if you look at it,
(48:34):
is where the averages have been for so long. This
isn't a new thing. Trump has led in Georgia since October,
He's led in North Carolina since last August, and he's
been that way with Arizona and Nevada since November. So
this has been six straight months and about lots of
news stories and lots of different headlines and lots of
(48:55):
money by the Biden administration Democratic Party being put into
these states that have had a little impact. Remembers I've
moved out point in Biden's favor, but not enough to
sit there and move them out of the margin of error.
Then there's the Roust Belt. The Rust Belt is places
mostly three big states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump has
(49:17):
been leading in the Ross Belt in all those areas,
but by very very small numbers by a point a
point and a half to two and a half points
in Michigan. That is not a safe place to be now.
That is remarkably better than he was in twenty sixteen
and twenty twenty, when state polling was very off in
twenty sixteen and somewhat off in twenty twenty. But Trump
(49:38):
has got much more to move, has a lot more
work to do in the Midwest that is older and
whiter than he does in the sun Belt, which is
younger and more diverse, and that will be the deciding
factor in this upcoming election.
Speaker 1 (49:52):
Hey, Ryan, it's buck.
Speaker 4 (49:54):
Where do you think the Democrats believe their best shots
at taking swings? We all know what those swing states are.
Where do they think they have their best shot? You
believe based on the polling and the data you can see.
Speaker 12 (50:07):
Well, absolutely, Pennsylvania is very very very important, Michigan, especially
with Robert F. Kenny Junior making the ballot in Michigan
and Wisconsin, those three places because they have while they
have a huge working class white population, there is a
very very very small Latino population, and as Latinos are
re orienting themselves much like white voters did in the
(50:29):
nineteen seventies and nineteen eighties, where conservative whites were no
longer voting Democrat, they we voting Republican for president. We're
seeing a lot of that among Latinos, where conservative Latinos
who traditionally vote Democrat are voting more and more Republican.
They don't have He does not have that boost. It's
going to be completely among college educated whites and working
class whites. And the thing that Trump has has the
(50:51):
numbers right now working in his favor. But the people
who vote often and vote continuously, especially college educated whites,
are very, very heavy in Joe Biden's camp. And that
is how Joe Biden could lose the entire Sunbelt, all
the swing states and the Sunbelts and still win the
presidency if he manages to hold on to enough working
(51:12):
class whites and college educated whites. Pew research in their
exit holes of twenty twenty, twenty seven percent of all
Biden voters were non college educated whites. That's a lot.
That is the second largest part of his coalition outside
of college educated whites. So these are tens of millions
of people that should be Republican, that would be Republican.
(51:35):
That positive for grabs if they try to appeal to them,
and that would be the main priority I think of
the Trump campaign.
Speaker 2 (51:42):
All right, this is a super nerd question. But correct
me if I'm wrong on the math. Here we are potentially,
if Biden were to hold on to the Midwest, Let's
say he won Wisconsin, Let's say he won Michigan, and
he won Pennsylvania. Based on what you're saying, Russ Belt
versus Sun Belt, if Trump flipped Georgia, if he flipped Nevada,
(52:04):
and if he flipped Arizona, it would come down potentially
to a two sixty nine to two sixty nine tie.
Speaker 11 (52:13):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (52:13):
If he wins the sun Belt loses the Rust Belt,
depending on what would happen in the Omaha Nebraska congressional seat,
the way that they divide out things in.
Speaker 1 (52:23):
Is that correct?
Speaker 12 (52:25):
Yes, that's correct.
Speaker 2 (52:26):
Yeah, because because would win Trump would win if this
got tossed into the House of Representatives, tied up at
two sixty nine, and by the way, that's not a
crazy result based on polling right now, right, if they.
Speaker 12 (52:39):
If the or But the thing is that Republicans have
to hold the House because what happens is not the
old Congress motes for the new Congress does so if republic.
Speaker 1 (52:50):
But it's by state.
Speaker 2 (52:51):
Sorry to nerd out even more, but it's by state
delegation right, not necessarily control of the House, and I
believe Republicans would be fair to still have more states.
But I mean this is this is how tight end
could be.
Speaker 12 (53:06):
Yes, it's it is a yes, that is one potential
depending how swing states in places like Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania
go where the majority of members could be Democrat or
Republican from either which state it is potential It is possible,
but yeah, that would mean like places like North Carolina
(53:27):
and Georgia with Delute vudding Republican. But there are a
number of swing states which would draw the majority of
the delegation being Democratic Republican in critical battlegrounds in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan,
so we'd have to wait and see Minnesota.
Speaker 4 (53:44):
We're speaking to Ryan Gardowski, National Populist Newsletter is his
sub stack.
Speaker 1 (53:49):
Go subscribe to it. Ryan.
Speaker 4 (53:51):
How's the money game looking right now? As I understand it,
The RNC has started out in a rough spot this
year in terms of cash on hand, but has been
really ramping up fundraising successfully ramping it up recently. What
can you tell us about about how that component of
it is lining up right now as we get closer
to this, I.
Speaker 12 (54:10):
Mean, Lard Trump has really done a number of good
work when it comes to She's definitely not spending money
like Ronal McDaniel was, which is a good thing. And
she's been increasing in her fundraising efforts. And the main
job of the RNC is too fundraise. The same job
with the DNC. One of the big problems for Hillary
Clinton in twenty sixteen was the DNC was functionally bankrupt
when she took it all when when she became the
(54:32):
party's nominee Obama really didn't fundraise very well for whatsoever.
But the problem that the RNC is having right now,
the Republicans are having right now is that they are
the state parties, which were ones very strong in a
number of states, are extremely weak. The Michigan State Party,
the Arizona State Party. They are in terrible shape a
(54:52):
number of them. And the reliance on state parties to
sit there and move the needle with which was intro
it was so important in twenty sixteen, is not available today.
I'll say on ports in twenty sixteen in Ohio, the
state party was so well run, but do check I
think ran at that point, but it was so well
(55:14):
run that on election Day of twenty sixteen and their
early get up the vote plan, by noon they had
stopped using any resources in Ohio and shifted everything to Michigan.
And Michigan obviously was won by I think less than
half a point, but by the Ohio GOP saying we
have this election of the bag, we want it, let's
move all of our resources to Michigan was so important
(55:36):
to helping flip that state and mobilize low propensity voters
and getting them out to vote. Ohio still is a
very good state party. Other states, though, do not, and
those resources are very, very badly needed when it comes
to helping elect people and helping elected president so Johnald Trump.
The one thing that the RNC and the Trump campaign
(55:57):
have not done is they do not have a lot
of state offices or local offices as of yet, and
Biden has a number. That doesn't mean a lot necessarily
because Trump hat very few in sixteen and Biden had
almost none in twenty, but in title races that get
out the vote effort does mean.
Speaker 1 (56:12):
A lot Ryan.
Speaker 2 (56:14):
In sixteen we saw Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all go
for Trump. In twenty we saw them all go for Biden.
Do you believe that it's likely that all three of
those states go the same direction in twenty four, either
for Biden or for Trump? Part one, Part two? If
(56:34):
you were analyzing this from Trump's perspective, do you believe
that Michigan, may be based on the Israel and Palestine situation,
has moved more than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (56:47):
If Trump were gonna win one.
Speaker 2 (56:49):
Of those three, which one or maybe ranked them in
likelihood of winning, do you think it's different than in
sixteen and twenty Well, one of.
Speaker 12 (56:58):
The big problems in twenty four Republicans was the Green
Party was not qualified on the ballot in either Wisconsin, Arizona,
or Georgia. They had all been thrown off the ballot,
and had the Green Party performed equally as well in
any of those states as they did in the neighboring state,
the election would have been different. Now, the Green Party,
as I understand it, is on the ballot in all
(57:19):
of those states. So a really hardcore progressive, which is
Jill Stein, who's campaigning on a pro Palestinian message, in
a pro Gaza statehood message is on the ballot all
those places, so that may make up a big thing.
RFK Junior I believe is on the ballot in Georgia
and Michigan. I'm not so sure about Arizona as of yet.
That will make up a certain difference. The reason that
(57:40):
those states really swung in twenty sixteen was there a
proportion of the population, specifically white college educated and non college educated,
who genuinely hated Hillary Clinton and couldn't And I portioned
the black population by the who hated Hillary Clinton either
wouldn't turn out for her, or when they did, they
voted for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein twenty sixteen, That
(58:01):
hatred did not happen in twenty twenty. They didn't feel
the same thing for Joe Biden. So although Trump improved
his performance among non college educated whites by a point
from sixty four to sixty five percent nationwide, the percentage
of the five or six percent that had sat out
or had voted for a third party came to Joe Biden.
And that's where the margin made the difference. The margin
(58:24):
was smaller because a lot of people who sat out
third party had come home to the Democratic Party. Now
that six to seven percent still exists today, they may
set out again. They may sit there and vote for
Joe Biden, or they may vote third party. Trump should
make a real appeal to those voters because non college
educated voters one they have. The economy is hurting them
(58:46):
the most too. They are the most fragile from mass
immigration as far as their jobs go. Conversations over AI
replacing their jobs is power amount that no one's really
talking about yet. And I'll put up one other last thing.
There is a huge, huge population in this country that
are that live in mobile home communities that are being
increasingly purchased by large companies that are displacing millions upon
(59:09):
millions of people, are threatening to displace millions upon millions
of people. That's a real conversation. And mobile home societies
communities rather are very large in swing states in this country.
Their biggest I think are Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona.
I think those are the top four. So that's a
very very important Democratic Speaking to working class white voters
right now is critical. In the same way that he
(59:30):
attempted to black voters in twenty twenty talking about the
Platinum Plan. There should be a plan for the white
working class Americans who feel completely unrecognized, and I think
speaking to them is critical at this moment when six
or seven percent of their vote could easily swing one
way or the other.
Speaker 4 (59:48):
Ryan or Dusky, everybody check out National Populist newsletter on substack.
Speaker 1 (59:53):
Ryan, keep your phone handy. We're gonna to talk to
you as this gets closer.
Speaker 2 (59:58):
By the way, do you think Trump is still winning
two months ago? You said yes, just yes or no?
Would he win if the election were today based on
your analysis?
Speaker 12 (01:00:06):
Yes, yes, absolutely, yes as all today.
Speaker 2 (01:00:09):
Yes, that's good to hear. We'll talk to you again soon.
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Speaker 5 (01:01:00):
He
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