October 3, 2024 • 36 mins
In this episode, Lisa discusses the current political climate, focusing on the vice presidential debate and its implications for the upcoming election. Joined by Brad Todd, co-founder of On Message, they explore the challenges candidates face in a polarized environment. Todd shares insights on polling dynamics, voter mobilization, and campaign strategies. They discuss the significance of candidate performances, the difficulty of engaging undecided voters, and the impact of "Trump nostalgia." The Truth with Lisa Boothe is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
I don't know if you guys watched the vice presidential debate,
but jd Vance was on fire. He was articulate. He
drove home what the Trump Dvance ticket would do, what
a Trump Vance administration would look like. He talked about
how the fact that Donald Trump governed from a common
sense standpoint. He was quick on his feet, he was likable,
he was approachable. I mean, the guy just crushed it.
(00:22):
But well, the debate matter. Do vice presidential debates matter?
They haven't as much in the past, But we're in
a new era, a new environment will change the election.
We've seen in polling that today this election has pretty
much been a coin flip. Can we believe the polls?
How much of what we are seeing is real? How
much of polling is real? We're going to talk to
(00:42):
someone who's been in the political game for a very
long time. He is one of the founding directors a
co founder of On Message, which is a political strategy
firm with some of the top political strategists in the country.
They lead campaigns at basically every level in every state.
They've steered political committee arms of the US Senate, US
representatives and worked with people on both the federal and
(01:04):
state candidates on the federal and state level, so you know,
big time group. So we're going to talk to one
of the co founders, Brad Todd, who has been in
the game for a long time, who sees polling by
the way on a daily basis with some of the
campaigns and candidates that he's working with this election cycle.
So we're going to talk to him about what's really
going on, what's happening on the ground, the inside scoop,
about what you need to know, how much is campaigning
(01:27):
changed over the years as well, So we'll get into
the discussion of current political environment where he thinks this
campaign cycle is going both for presidential as well as
House and Senate, and also just a little bit more
of a deep dive on how campaigns have changed over
the years. I think it's a really interesting conversation with
a guy who knows a lot. He's also the co
author of The Great Revolt Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping
(01:50):
American Politics, So interesting conversation with these interesting times. Stay tuned.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Well, Brad Todd.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
I've known you for a while, but this is the
first time having you on the show. Appreciate you making
the time and looking forward to hearing your insight and
this this crazy election cycle that we're having.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Oh glad to be here, Lisa, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
Well, I guess has this been the craziest election cycle
you've experienced in your career?
Speaker 2 (02:19):
You know, if you could take any one of the
major events in this and it would still be the
craziest election cycle we've ever done. You know, I've been
doing this twenty five years and I can't think of
any three elections that came close to this if you
had them all together. An assassination attempt or two conviction
of one of the hand that's running dropping out of
(02:41):
an incumbent president mid cycle, it's just nuts.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Has that made your job and trying to you know,
advise candidates and sort of like navigate this how much
more difficult as that kind of major job. Well, as
you've gone through the cycle.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
You know it is a little bit more difficult because
these major events cause sea changes in what the conversation
is around all elections for a few weeks. You know,
it's crazy. If you told me we would have an assassination attempt,
I would say that's going to be the entire conversation
the rest of the race. But in fact, that's not
(03:17):
what has happened in this election. And some of that's
because the country's so polarized. You know, there are two
very hard partisan bases, and most people in those bases
are not kenids to switch sides. So that polarization causes
these waves to settle out quickly. But this cycle, we've
(03:38):
had a lot of new waves pop up.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
It gets to that point and sort of this hurden
political environment that we are living in we're in with
the tribalism or however you want to couch it. How
do you persuade what's left of the persuadables in that environment?
How do you change the dynamics of a race and
that kind of environment.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Well, you know, we're having conversation. Uh, in all our
races now, you know, there are very few undecideds in
any races. They're both contested house races and center races
in addition to the presidential Uh for the most part,
undecided and in all these races look similar. They are
they lean a little bit to the right. Uh, they
(04:19):
tend to be non college educated. They skew a little
bit male, which is unusual. Usually the undecided to late
our skew female, but this year they skew male. Uh,
they are a little bit more favorable to former President
Trump than the electorate at large is they're pretty down
on President Biden. But they also all are not really
(04:44):
that engaged in politics. I mean, we're now fighting over
voters who are politics is not the top of mind
for them and it's not a priority. Uh they are
if they if it was a priority, they probably would
have been polarized into one of the two camps. So
it's also very hard to reach them through all means
grandt rates or advertising.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Yeah, I was going to say, how do you know,
how do you mobilize a voter like that? To Also,
it's kind of like it's hard to imagine with everything
you know going on with you know, like potential World war,
you know, with this ethnic you know, it's.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Like just with the diary hard to get through.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
It's kind of like but it's kind of like, I
don't know, if they're not mobilized by all of this, Like,
how do you get someone like that mobilized?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Well, you know, I think one thing you have to
do is start where they are, uh, and you have
to start with the fact that they're conflicted, and they
see faults on both sides. And I think that's a
real challenge for the Trump campaign and Donald Trump himself
and for Kamala Harris is to spend these last few
weeks acknowledging you know, look, you may not always agree
(05:52):
with me, or you may not all always like how
I describe things, or I may not have been perfect.
That's very, very hard for success politicians to do. Uh,
But I think you're you have a much better chance
of opening the conversation with these last few undecided if
you just start where they are, which is, hey, everybody
up here is pretty flawed. Your choices are all imperfect,
(06:13):
because that's what they think about all politics, but they
so especially they think about about this field. So I
guess the way.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
I feel where we are now heading into November is
I think I would rather be team Trump than Team Harris.
The reason being is that you know, Trump's numbers are
already kind of locked in, right, Like everyone knows he's
the most like prosecuted, persecuted, written about, condemned, you know
person probably in America, So you know his number, like
(06:43):
everyone knows who he is. Like, there's not a lot
of room to you know, it's turned her to you know,
persuade I think for or against him in a sense
where she's a relatively unknown entity, particularly in this space
as a presidential candidate, so there's more room to inform
and to try try to drive her numbers down and
to try to sour voters on her. And then you know,
(07:05):
also if you look at polling in the past, this
is the best he's ever done heading into an election cycle,
even more than twenty sixteen or twenty twenty, when polls
tend to underestimate a support. So I feel like, if
you were to do a side by side comparison, I'd
probably rather be team Trump right now than team Harris.
I guess what do you make of that? And you know,
kind of what are your thoughts?
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Well, in a very polarized, locked up election without many undecided,
then ake us have to say the person with the
hardest base of support probably has an advantage. I've thought
since they swapped out Harris for Biden that she had
a lot more upside with Biden, but she also had
a significant downside. And you know it was it presented
(07:47):
Democrats with an opportunity to start over in a race
that they were certainly going to lose, but it also
gave them a candidate with an old new set of flaws.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
You know.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
For instance, I'm working in the Senate race in Pennsylvania,
and so I see a lot data in Pennsylvania, and
there was a persistent group of voters in Pennsylvania who
had some illogical affinity for Joe Biden, if you will, right,
they were people who are right of center on many
mountters and cultural matters. For instance, maybe they are gun owners,
maybe they are working class and sort of don't agree
(08:19):
with where the Democrats are on a lot of crazy
social positions they take, you know, girls playing men playing
girl sports, for example. But those voters were just trench
of them that were of stubbornly loyal to Joe Biden.
Why is that, Well, it's because he's from scrant He's
was been a senator who is in the Philadelphia media
market forever, and a lot of those they were disproportionately older,
(08:41):
and they disproportionately sort of had this old nostalgia for
the Joe Biden they had once known before he could
basically outsourced his administration to Elizabeth Warren. And so for
those voters, you know, suddenly Kamblo Harris does not fit
with Joe Biden. So that's a good example of how
I think she had a lot more downside, you know,
as for who I'd rather be. Thirdly, the structure favors
(09:05):
former President Trump. All he has to do is win
North Carolina and Pennsylvania and he will be the president
of the United States. I'm confident he's gonna win Georgia,
even though it's close. So I really think for his
pack it just comes down to win those two states.
And if you look at it, Pennsylvania is the state
he's won before, and then last time in twenty twenty
he got forty eight percent with Democrats literally doing everything possible.
(09:28):
He he I think has an appeal to some crossover voters,
Democrats and independents in Pennsylvania. So these are this is
a very doable task for him. You look at North
Carolina and you know Republicans have won every Senate or
presidential election there except for two times in the Senate
one presidential year since the seventies. So he ought to
(09:51):
be able to win both those both those states if
the campaign works out the way he wants, and the
rest of October and that's that's so structurally, I think
I would rather be him. The argument for her is
she's had the momentum. She definitely, I think did have
a very good debate, We're being honest, and I think
she that momentum carried her for another couple of weeks.
(10:14):
She'd got a lot of the press corps on her side,
in the legacy media, and that certainly has enabled her
to hide from tough interviews. That's been a momentum helper.
So that's that's that's that's the argument for both of
them on who you'd rather be.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
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(12:02):
Although I had Robert Kaheleia on the show with Trafalgar
Group after the debate, and he made a point that
I thought was really interesting of that she might have
objectively won the debate in terms of you know, look,
she had a better debate performance. I think, even as
a Republican who supports Trump, I can admit that, but
that didn't necessarily resonate with likability or moving people in
(12:23):
her direction. And you know, he pointed to some of
the numbers that he was seeing and the polls after
the debate, and then also, you know, the New York
Times did that interview piece with a bunch of undecided voters,
and they were still on the fence, still had questions
about her, didn't feel like she differentiated herself enough from Biden,
and so you know, he kind of made the point
of like, you can still technically win a debate while
(12:43):
also not necessarily moving the needle from that debate on
terms of likability and moving people into your side, which
I thought was sort of an interesting, you know, point
of view to have. You do you think this debate
that we saw with you know, I think, you know,
Vance performed extremely well during last night's to beate. I
(13:04):
think he also came across as likable. It seemed like
he sort of had a softened approach, so perhaps he
was trying to reach reach independence and women from the performance.
Do you think last night's debate will have any impact?
You know, I know they don't tend to, but we've
not had as many debates this cycle, you know, kind
of like, what are your takeaways from it and does
it matter?
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Well? I think there are two groups I think that
are pretty important for the Trump campaign as they've moved
down the last couple of weeks. One of them is
a group that I like to call manage their men,
although there certainly are some college educated Republican women that
fit this category as well. Manager man strips is into
more into some independence and people who are not strict conservatives,
(13:50):
but they think the Biden administration has been an organizational disaster.
I think jd Vance last night was playing toward that cohort.
That they are almost exclusively white collar voters. They tend
to live in places around other white collar voters where
Donald tempt to struggled. However, they think the Biden administration's
(14:10):
policy has been a disaster, and so that group of men.
There are people who have not voted for a lot
of Democrats in their in their in their life, but
but or we're willing to consider it again this time.
I think Jade Evance was working really hard last night
on that group. The second group is is what I
call xbox owners, uh and you know, very younger, younger cohort,
(14:32):
not nearest college educated, uh and really disconnected from politics.
And I don't know that he worked very hard at
that group last night, but I think he was picked
in part to appeal to that group just had a
new generational appeal for Trump on the ticket. And so
I don't know that I heard him talking a lot
about the issues that those voters care about. But I
(14:53):
do think that, uh, that those two groups are the
key for for Trump heading down the stretch.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
I guess my broader can her and as you know,
what I said previously, I'd rather be Trump than her.
Is your Democrats tend to have a better turnout ground
game than we do. Do you think we've we've done not?
You know, you mentioned, you know, I think obviously you know,
you know you mentioned. I think this election cycle probably
comes down to I feel like you'll win North Carolina,
(15:19):
but I worry about Pennsylvania and in part because of
that ground game, that turnout operation that Democrats have been
able to have, and you know, also some room for
Tom Fulery Shenanigans as well.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Sure well, Chris do do a better job mechanically on turnout.
Most years, you know their their vote. Their vote is
typically very group based.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
And so there's the the structural here. You know, let
me send you an absentee ballot, let me call you
and harass you till you send your absentee ballot in.
And if you don't send your abency ballot in, We're
going to pick you up and drive you to the polls.
And that is a that is a that that's a
that strategy has worked a lot better for them over
the years. Republican turnout work tends to be persuasion oriented, right,
(16:02):
you have to you have to make a Democrat mobilized,
you have to make a Republican irritated. That's often how
it turnout works. And so I do think that the
mechanics this time for the Trump campaign are better than
he's had an either race before. He's had a very
professional campaign team that had a real big head start,
(16:25):
and they have done a lot of things, for instance,
on the ground in Pennsylvania and another state I'm setting
up close. You know, the Republicans. The gap between Democrats
and Republicans and mail balloting is much closer than it
was in twenty twenty. It's closer it was in twenty
twenty two. Well, that doesn't have by accident. That's because
it's being actively worked, and that's a weapon in or
(16:47):
President Trump's campaign arsenal that he's never had before.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Now does some of that speak to then? You know,
I guess what does the enthusiasm look like for her?
Because you Democrats obviously tend to do better in the
mail in ballots than we do. You know, we're more
kind of like game day type thing on election day
or you know, early voting or whatever. But does that
speak to like, maybe people aren't as excited about her,
(17:14):
and like even though the poll line shows it's tight,
that like, it's going to be harder to mobilize people
to be excited about her.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Or I think we I think most of us expect
turnout to drop some from twenty twenty. You know a
lot of people are still sitting at home with not
much to do in twenty twenty, so why not vote?
You know, so I think turnout will be a little less,
and I think turnout enthusiasm for her it varies. Right
if for college educated liberals who live around other college
(17:43):
educated liberals, they have not been this excited about a
presidential election since two thousand and eight. And that's one
reason you see in some of the media polls she
outperforms what I think is reality. It's because those college
educated liberals are literally climbing through the telephone to tell
us scrape eacher what they think. And so I think
she does have enthusiasm with that. But you're talking about
(18:06):
thirty percent of the country, even before you subtract out
the Republicans in that group. So it's a It's not
a tremendous, tremendous number overall in the grand scheme of things,
but it's a loud number. So that's where I think
her challenge is to probably generate enthusiasm among people who
are lower income levels who the economy under Biden and
(18:29):
Harris had just crushed them, and trying to enthusias get
those those lower propensity, lower income democrats fired up to
do more of this. This is really hard for her, I.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Think, yeah, because you see our number, you know, kind
of because even you know, I can't remember what cha
Poole I saw, but I think it had him down
by twelve with women, but he lost to Hillary Clinton,
I believe by fifteen points with women in twenty sixteen
and still went on to win, or even with black voters.
She seems to be down than previous Democrats has ban it,
(18:59):
you know, so she's not sort of the coalition doesn't
look as strong as it has with past Democrat presidential candidates.
And it's interesting because even the you know, the New
York Times editorial board endorsing her, like they spent like
sixteen paragraphs talking about Trump, which was like way more
than telling us why Kamala. You know, it was all
just like we hate Trump. It wasn't a boost of Kamala,
whereas in twenty twenty, the entire endorsement was about how
(19:21):
great Joe Biden was, or you look at Tim Walls
and the debate where he really didn't defend her or
even push her record. He talked more about, you know,
his time as governor of Minnesota. And so it's like,
so I just worry about how that or I will
not worry because I want her to lose, But I
wonder how that correlates to It's hard to motivate people
if it's like if the New York Times he can't
(19:41):
even explain to its readers why Kamala. And it's just
then how are you mobilize that voter of being like, well,
why do we even turn out? You know what I mean?
It's like does that make sense in terms of.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Yes, I'm trying to well, yeah, there's this creative tension
going on in the Democrat messaging, right, it is like
what be it excited about what's next? Except don't focus
on how upset you are with how things are. And
so you can't talk about Kambala Harrison's accomplishments without also
owning this malaise that a lot of voters see us in,
(20:15):
with an economy that's been too stagnant, with the border
that's out of control, with the world that's on fire.
It's awfully hard to brag on her accomplishedness as vice
president and not have her not own up to that.
So that's that's why you don't see her doing many
inniverse interviews. It's uh, there's and it's whether it is
this inherent tension in their message. And you know, for
(20:35):
Democrats who are excited about her, you know, they're excited
about her because they think she might can beat Donald Trump.
That's why they're excited about her. It's not about anything
she has done. Or promises to do uh, and their
their enthusiasm is limited to what she might do on
the liver of the bit. So that's uh, that's that's
also is kind of an empty uh pat forward, empty momentum,
(20:58):
if you will.
Speaker 1 (20:59):
Yeah, And then I think that's challenging in that environment too,
when you know, you look at some of the pulling.
I think it was like CNN not too long ago
found that there's actually like Trump nostalgia where a majority
of Americans look back at his administration, you know, fondly,
or you look at the fact he's leading on the
economy and immigration, so like it was probably easier to
run on I'm not Trump and you know, you know,
tack Donald Trump like they did in twenty sixteen or
(21:21):
even in twenty twenty a Joe Biden I'm not Donald
Trump mean tweets, you know, whatever, whatever, But it's harder
to do now when everything is so bad under the
current administration. People have nostalgia about his administration, and then
he also leads on you know, the two top issues
for voters, both the economy and and immigration. So I
think it's you know, that anti Trump narrative, you know,
(21:43):
from an objective standbanks or even a common sense standpoint,
it seems like it might be a little harder to drive,
not discounting the fact that you know, there are Americans
who obviously can't stand him, but I'm just given that
backdrop of the environment.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Well, you know, every presidential election involves in the com
but it's always really centers on one question, are you
better up now than were four years ago? And well, she,
of course is the stand in incumbent for this administration,
and so I think that, uh, that's why you have
seen this election sort of stay on a pretty even
though the campaign around it has been very valid or
(22:19):
the polling has been relatively trading in very narrow bands,
and it's been it's simply because there's there's the majority
of the country is not really happy with where things
were are now relative four years ago.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
If you if the media covered her with any sort
of you know, fair you know, we've seen the numbers
like eighty four percent positive from Media Research Center. I
think ABC was like one hundred percent positive. And then
you know, obviously like eighty nine percent negative or Trump
or whatever it is. Uh, you know, how much influence
(22:52):
does that have on the electorate.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
Well, it's declining. I think I think a lot of
legacy media outlets are no longer respected by a great
deal of the country. You know. In my view, last night,
I think Norah O'Donnell and Varter Brennan DIDs real damage
their long term professional credibility by you know, breaking their
own rules to fact check Jadie Vance, but they didn't
(23:18):
have the right facts, and then they cut off his
mic when he exposed that they didn't have the right facts.
And so I think that certainly there has been glowing
coverage and in much of the legacy media for her
h and not near enough holding her to account for
not being accountable to them in interviews. But I also
think it's a narrower, narrower group that's influenced by that.
(23:41):
You know, there probably were just as many people last
night who who decided they thought less of CBS than
they thought less of either one of those candidates. And
I think that's a very real factor.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
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(25:21):
two four safe. You know, looking at the Senate, it seems,
you know, Republicans will likely win back the Senate. You know,
how do you where do you think some of these
races are going to fall down? And what do you think?
I assume the House will probably just follow whoever wins
the Senate and the presidency. But sort of what's looking
(25:45):
at sort of the congressional races, both Senate and House.
You know, how do you feel about the elector right now?
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Well, Republic's going to take over the Senate. Uh, they're
gonna be fifty one senators when at a minimum when
we wake up on November. The questions for where it's
fifty two, fifty three or fifty four and why does
that matter if you're a conservative? Well, if fifty one,
you just in the next two years with Susan Collins
and Lisa Murkowski being in the same catbird seats that
(26:13):
Joe Manson and Kristen Cinema will were for the Democrats
the last couple of years, where those two most moderate
members of the Senate Repolican conference would have very heavy
handed negotiations and on everything to get the pass through
the Senate, even if Republicans of the White House would
require both of them, and so on most most things.
(26:35):
And so that's that's a question Conservatives have to consider.
The second thing is, you know the next two Senate cycles,
and you know, only a third of the Senate's up
each election, So twenty six and twenty eight, Republicans will
be playing more defense this year where there's not much
Republican defense happening. It's all offense against Democratic incumbents. And
so holding a fifty one seat Senate the next two
(26:55):
cycles is not going to be easy. So my contention
is always been that it would be a failure for
Republicans to end up with fifty one, even though that
means taking control. I think Republicans need to be aiming
for fifty three or fifty four. This time. We have
the seats to do it. You know, the reason I
say fifty one is done because Joe Mansion Steed in
West Virginia is going to go to Jim Justice in Montana.
(27:17):
John Tester's time is up. You know, he's he's been
only thinking that is Montana about him as his haircut,
and so's his time is finally up. He's running great
Democratic years and lucked out a few times, but he's
going to lose this time. So that's fifty. I get
you to fifty one, and you have great chances for
Republicans to win in Pennsylvania with Dave McCormick, who is
(27:39):
running a great challenge to Bob Casey. You have in
Ohio state Trump's going to win by ten. I think
Bernie Moreno can beat Shared Brown there. You've got an
open seat in Michigan with Mike Rodgers who is running
against Alicia Slotkin, and there are plenty of undecided left
in that race. It's the state Donald Trump may carry,
and if so, he might be able to pull Mike
(27:59):
rod behind him. And then it Wisconsin, you know where
I think Tammy Baldwin has run an excellent race for
the Democrats, just tactically if I'm looking at the outside,
But you know, the state is more conservative than she is,
and the presidential race will be close, and so it
is still possible that she could also lose it.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Wisconsin's an interesting state. I worked on the Tommy Thompson
for Senate campaign as his Commons director for the last
couple of months of the race against her. She's an
interesting character and it's an interesting state. So Alyssa Slotkin
was recently in a fundraising call. She was talking about
how her internal numbers have Kamala Harris underwater there. How
(28:41):
much of that do you think is I mean, obviously,
with these candidates, you're trying to get people's money, and
the only way to get money is if you're you know,
in a down position or it's a dogfighter or whatever.
How reflective of the environment do you think some of
these pools that we're seeing truly are? And then you know,
I guess as pulling become less accurate over the years
(29:04):
or you know, kind of talk a little bit about
that in terms of, you know, trying to really get
the truth and assess where you are in a campaign
with today's pulling.
Speaker 2 (29:15):
Well, first off, I take Sluckin's comments with a grain
of salt. You know, Democratic donors respond best to be flogged,
and so you have to tell them I'm losing. It's awful.
You have to save me. And then with their Messiah complex,
they write checks. On the Republican side, donors are a
lot more investor motivated. Right, they want to see that
(29:38):
you're almost produce a guaranteed return. That's what makes Republicans invest.
You know, if you give me money, I'll win. Democrats
response do better with If you don't give me money,
I'll lose. It's just an odd psychology that I don't
really fully understand how we got to this point. So
I would put a touch stock, but you know, is
(30:02):
getting harder because it's harder to get people to pick
up the phone and talk to a stranger for you know,
fifteen minutes or so. And so therefore posters are all making,
you know, decisions about their sample frame that have real
impact on the final numbers. And they're trying to do
(30:22):
their best to trying to figure out who's going to vote.
But there's some art to go with the science, and
you know, we were The other problem is we're washed
this in a lot of bad media polling. You know,
if you pull for a television network or a newspaper
or a university, nobody hires and fires you because you're
right or wrong. It's just a marketing tool for the network,
(30:43):
or for the or for the university. So as a result,
those polls tend to be pretty crappy. And the private
campaign polls on both sides, the Democrats or Republican campaigns
paid for, they cost a lot more. They're done with
a lot more care and by people with a lot
more experience than those states. Uh, and those polls are
pretty accurate, you know. I looked back at last time,
(31:04):
the New York Times said that Joe Biden was gonna
win Wisconsin by eleven. My partner Wes Anderson, had a
poll that had Joe Biden winning it by one. Well,
you know what he wanted by one, you know, so
it's it and then we're taking at the same time.
It's just somebody had had more experience than the other person.
So I think the public's kind of south on polls
(31:26):
because they uh that they see so many bad quality
polls in the news media that don't turn out to
be We're close to the to the truth. And I
think that that, you know, pole is still a very
valuable tool. It is getting harder, but but we still
gleamed a lot of important information.
Speaker 1 (31:44):
I guess before we go, I guess, how have you
seen Paul You know, you worked in politics for you know,
quite some time. He worked on a lot of different races,
a lot of different types of races. I guess, what
are the biggest ways you've seen the game chance and seeing,
you know, campaigning change.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
Well, I think the degradation of trust in legacy media
is one big thing.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
You know.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
We were I was talking with someone yesterday on the
Democrat side and they we used to go to all
the editorial boards and campaigns, right, it was just a
matter of course that you would take your candidate editorial boards.
I mean, most Republicans wouldn't get caught dead in the
editorial board now because it's a rig game. Uh. They've
got a camera running. They're trying to ask gotcha questions
and post things that will get clicks to their newspaper.
(32:32):
And you know, back in the old days, the editorial
board was entirely off the record. There were no reporters
in there. The publisher of the paper and their editorial
board members were just trying to understand the way each
candidate thought. And it was a pretty open and sometimes
colorful exchange of ideas. That's just gone, uh, and that's
probably for the worst. And the notion of reaching people
(32:54):
through interviews and what we call earned media. You know,
which which you been so good at. You know, that's
that's getting very very much a one side of a
street thing. You know. Republicans go to conservative news outlets
that reach the voters who might vote for Republicans, and
Democrats go to the don't lift left leading news outlets
(33:16):
that'll reach their voters, and and so the can don't
end up talking to the same people. And so that
on a day to day basis is very different. And
campaigns also can by pass them, you know. I mean
we used to live and die on can we get
three news cameras at one of our events. Well, now
we just take our own camp and cut package together
and put it up on social media and and let
(33:38):
let the public see it. So, uh, the way we
communicate on a day to day basis, and campaigns and
and and the filters we have to tolerate have really changed.
Speaker 1 (33:47):
And you know, I think Trump's use of podcasters it's
it's been interesting and uh, you know, to kind of
reaching especially those like the young men, like maybe those
xboxers you're talking you know, uh, just take a differentmographic
of voters. I guess very last question, I'll let you
go ex Center. You're busy guy, if you're you know what,
you are advising Republicans. But what if Republicans need to do,
(34:11):
What does Trump need to do to close this thing
out and get them over the line on November fifth? Like,
what do these next few weeks look like? What needs
to get done?
Speaker 2 (34:20):
I think Donald Trump has to do the thing that's
hardest for Donald Trump to do, and that is to
make this election not about himself, if he makes it
about how the voters feel about their own status, which
when he's at his best, he is great at doing that.
That's how he won in twenty sixteen. Is he spent
the last part of the election moving the shift of
(34:43):
the race onto the voters and what their interests were
and who stood in the way of the voters achieving
the things they wanted to do. I think that's the
task if he's able to make this race about the voters.
You know, because kayble Aras is not out campaigning, she's
not out hit you know, she's not hitting the trail
to near the extent the former president Trump is, and
(35:04):
Tim Wallas is knocked out like Jade Vancis. They they're
just not doing that level of voter contact. They're not
in the public gods and advertising. I think that they have.
The Trump Vance campaign has a real chance, but they
have to shift it off personality and make it about
where voters are. Is the economy better or worse than
it was four years ago? Is the border better or
worse than it was four years ago? Is the world
(35:26):
safer or down more dangerous than it was four years ago.
That's the task I think for the Trump Vance campaign,
and I think if they do do that, they have
a great chance to win.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
And I hope they do because the country's going to help.
So it's the world. Brad Todd, co founder on Message,
I really appreciate it. Thanks so much for making the time.
This is really interesting. I think we all learned a
lot to really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
Thanks a lot.
Speaker 1 (35:49):
There was Brad Todd. He's a founding partner of On
Message media firm. Appreciate him for taking the time to
join the show. Appreciate you guys at home for listening
every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week.
I want to think John Cassio and my producer for
putting the show together. Until next time,
I don't know if you guys watched the vice presidential debate,
but jd Vance was on fire. He was articulate. He
drove home what the Trump Dvance ticket would do, what
a Trump Vance administration would look like. He talked about
how the fact that Donald Trump governed from a common
sense standpoint. He was quick on his feet, he was likable,
he was approachable. I mean, the guy just crushed it.
(00:22):
But well, the debate matter. Do vice presidential debates matter?
They haven't as much in the past, But we're in
a new era, a new environment will change the election.
We've seen in polling that today this election has pretty
much been a coin flip. Can we believe the polls?
How much of what we are seeing is real? How
much of polling is real? We're going to talk to
(00:42):
someone who's been in the political game for a very
long time. He is one of the founding directors a
co founder of On Message, which is a political strategy
firm with some of the top political strategists in the country.
They lead campaigns at basically every level in every state.
They've steered political committee arms of the US Senate, US
representatives and worked with people on both the federal and
(01:04):
state candidates on the federal and state level, so you know,
big time group. So we're going to talk to one
of the co founders, Brad Todd, who has been in
the game for a long time, who sees polling by
the way on a daily basis with some of the
campaigns and candidates that he's working with this election cycle.
So we're going to talk to him about what's really
going on, what's happening on the ground, the inside scoop,
about what you need to know, how much is campaigning
(01:27):
changed over the years as well, So we'll get into
the discussion of current political environment where he thinks this
campaign cycle is going both for presidential as well as
House and Senate, and also just a little bit more
of a deep dive on how campaigns have changed over
the years. I think it's a really interesting conversation with
a guy who knows a lot. He's also the co
author of The Great Revolt Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping
(01:50):
American Politics, So interesting conversation with these interesting times. Stay tuned.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Well, Brad Todd.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
I've known you for a while, but this is the
first time having you on the show. Appreciate you making
the time and looking forward to hearing your insight and
this this crazy election cycle that we're having.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Oh glad to be here, Lisa, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (02:14):
Well, I guess has this been the craziest election cycle
you've experienced in your career?
Speaker 2 (02:19):
You know, if you could take any one of the
major events in this and it would still be the
craziest election cycle we've ever done. You know, I've been
doing this twenty five years and I can't think of
any three elections that came close to this if you
had them all together. An assassination attempt or two conviction
of one of the hand that's running dropping out of
(02:41):
an incumbent president mid cycle, it's just nuts.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Has that made your job and trying to you know,
advise candidates and sort of like navigate this how much
more difficult as that kind of major job. Well, as
you've gone through the cycle.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
You know it is a little bit more difficult because
these major events cause sea changes in what the conversation
is around all elections for a few weeks. You know,
it's crazy. If you told me we would have an assassination attempt,
I would say that's going to be the entire conversation
the rest of the race. But in fact, that's not
(03:17):
what has happened in this election. And some of that's
because the country's so polarized. You know, there are two
very hard partisan bases, and most people in those bases
are not kenids to switch sides. So that polarization causes
these waves to settle out quickly. But this cycle, we've
(03:38):
had a lot of new waves pop up.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
It gets to that point and sort of this hurden
political environment that we are living in we're in with
the tribalism or however you want to couch it. How
do you persuade what's left of the persuadables in that environment?
How do you change the dynamics of a race and
that kind of environment.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
Well, you know, we're having conversation. Uh, in all our
races now, you know, there are very few undecideds in
any races. They're both contested house races and center races
in addition to the presidential Uh for the most part,
undecided and in all these races look similar. They are
they lean a little bit to the right. Uh, they
(04:19):
tend to be non college educated. They skew a little
bit male, which is unusual. Usually the undecided to late
our skew female, but this year they skew male. Uh,
they are a little bit more favorable to former President
Trump than the electorate at large is they're pretty down
on President Biden. But they also all are not really
(04:44):
that engaged in politics. I mean, we're now fighting over
voters who are politics is not the top of mind
for them and it's not a priority. Uh they are
if they if it was a priority, they probably would
have been polarized into one of the two camps. So
it's also very hard to reach them through all means
grandt rates or advertising.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Yeah, I was going to say, how do you know,
how do you mobilize a voter like that? To Also,
it's kind of like it's hard to imagine with everything
you know going on with you know, like potential World war,
you know, with this ethnic you know, it's.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Like just with the diary hard to get through.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
It's kind of like but it's kind of like, I
don't know, if they're not mobilized by all of this, Like,
how do you get someone like that mobilized?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Well, you know, I think one thing you have to
do is start where they are, uh, and you have
to start with the fact that they're conflicted, and they
see faults on both sides. And I think that's a
real challenge for the Trump campaign and Donald Trump himself
and for Kamala Harris is to spend these last few
weeks acknowledging you know, look, you may not always agree
(05:52):
with me, or you may not all always like how
I describe things, or I may not have been perfect.
That's very, very hard for success politicians to do. Uh,
But I think you're you have a much better chance
of opening the conversation with these last few undecided if
you just start where they are, which is, hey, everybody
up here is pretty flawed. Your choices are all imperfect,
(06:13):
because that's what they think about all politics, but they
so especially they think about about this field. So I
guess the way.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
I feel where we are now heading into November is
I think I would rather be team Trump than Team Harris.
The reason being is that you know, Trump's numbers are
already kind of locked in, right, Like everyone knows he's
the most like prosecuted, persecuted, written about, condemned, you know
person probably in America, So you know his number, like
(06:43):
everyone knows who he is. Like, there's not a lot
of room to you know, it's turned her to you know,
persuade I think for or against him in a sense
where she's a relatively unknown entity, particularly in this space
as a presidential candidate, so there's more room to inform
and to try try to drive her numbers down and
to try to sour voters on her. And then you know,
(07:05):
also if you look at polling in the past, this
is the best he's ever done heading into an election cycle,
even more than twenty sixteen or twenty twenty, when polls
tend to underestimate a support. So I feel like, if
you were to do a side by side comparison, I'd
probably rather be team Trump right now than team Harris.
I guess what do you make of that? And you know,
kind of what are your thoughts?
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Well, in a very polarized, locked up election without many undecided,
then ake us have to say the person with the
hardest base of support probably has an advantage. I've thought
since they swapped out Harris for Biden that she had
a lot more upside with Biden, but she also had
a significant downside. And you know it was it presented
(07:47):
Democrats with an opportunity to start over in a race
that they were certainly going to lose, but it also
gave them a candidate with an old new set of flaws.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
You know.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
For instance, I'm working in the Senate race in Pennsylvania,
and so I see a lot data in Pennsylvania, and
there was a persistent group of voters in Pennsylvania who
had some illogical affinity for Joe Biden, if you will, right,
they were people who are right of center on many
mountters and cultural matters. For instance, maybe they are gun owners,
maybe they are working class and sort of don't agree
(08:19):
with where the Democrats are on a lot of crazy
social positions they take, you know, girls playing men playing
girl sports, for example. But those voters were just trench
of them that were of stubbornly loyal to Joe Biden.
Why is that, Well, it's because he's from scrant He's
was been a senator who is in the Philadelphia media
market forever, and a lot of those they were disproportionately older,
(08:41):
and they disproportionately sort of had this old nostalgia for
the Joe Biden they had once known before he could
basically outsourced his administration to Elizabeth Warren. And so for
those voters, you know, suddenly Kamblo Harris does not fit
with Joe Biden. So that's a good example of how
I think she had a lot more downside, you know,
as for who I'd rather be. Thirdly, the structure favors
(09:05):
former President Trump. All he has to do is win
North Carolina and Pennsylvania and he will be the president
of the United States. I'm confident he's gonna win Georgia,
even though it's close. So I really think for his
pack it just comes down to win those two states.
And if you look at it, Pennsylvania is the state
he's won before, and then last time in twenty twenty
he got forty eight percent with Democrats literally doing everything possible.
(09:28):
He he I think has an appeal to some crossover voters,
Democrats and independents in Pennsylvania. So these are this is
a very doable task for him. You look at North
Carolina and you know Republicans have won every Senate or
presidential election there except for two times in the Senate
one presidential year since the seventies. So he ought to
(09:51):
be able to win both those both those states if
the campaign works out the way he wants, and the
rest of October and that's that's so structurally, I think
I would rather be him. The argument for her is
she's had the momentum. She definitely, I think did have
a very good debate, We're being honest, and I think
she that momentum carried her for another couple of weeks.
(10:14):
She'd got a lot of the press corps on her side,
in the legacy media, and that certainly has enabled her
to hide from tough interviews. That's been a momentum helper.
So that's that's that's that's the argument for both of
them on who you'd rather be.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
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(12:02):
Although I had Robert Kaheleia on the show with Trafalgar
Group after the debate, and he made a point that
I thought was really interesting of that she might have
objectively won the debate in terms of you know, look,
she had a better debate performance. I think, even as
a Republican who supports Trump, I can admit that, but
that didn't necessarily resonate with likability or moving people in
(12:23):
her direction. And you know, he pointed to some of
the numbers that he was seeing and the polls after
the debate, and then also, you know, the New York
Times did that interview piece with a bunch of undecided voters,
and they were still on the fence, still had questions
about her, didn't feel like she differentiated herself enough from Biden,
and so you know, he kind of made the point
of like, you can still technically win a debate while
(12:43):
also not necessarily moving the needle from that debate on
terms of likability and moving people into your side, which
I thought was sort of an interesting, you know, point
of view to have. You do you think this debate
that we saw with you know, I think, you know,
Vance performed extremely well during last night's to beate. I
(13:04):
think he also came across as likable. It seemed like
he sort of had a softened approach, so perhaps he
was trying to reach reach independence and women from the performance.
Do you think last night's debate will have any impact?
You know, I know they don't tend to, but we've
not had as many debates this cycle, you know, kind
of like, what are your takeaways from it and does
it matter?
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Well? I think there are two groups I think that
are pretty important for the Trump campaign as they've moved
down the last couple of weeks. One of them is
a group that I like to call manage their men,
although there certainly are some college educated Republican women that
fit this category as well. Manager man strips is into
more into some independence and people who are not strict conservatives,
(13:50):
but they think the Biden administration has been an organizational disaster.
I think jd Vance last night was playing toward that cohort.
That they are almost exclusively white collar voters. They tend
to live in places around other white collar voters where
Donald tempt to struggled. However, they think the Biden administration's
(14:10):
policy has been a disaster, and so that group of men.
There are people who have not voted for a lot
of Democrats in their in their in their life, but
but or we're willing to consider it again this time.
I think Jade Evance was working really hard last night
on that group. The second group is is what I
call xbox owners, uh and you know, very younger, younger cohort,
(14:32):
not nearest college educated, uh and really disconnected from politics.
And I don't know that he worked very hard at
that group last night, but I think he was picked
in part to appeal to that group just had a
new generational appeal for Trump on the ticket. And so
I don't know that I heard him talking a lot
about the issues that those voters care about. But I
(14:53):
do think that, uh, that those two groups are the
key for for Trump heading down the stretch.
Speaker 1 (14:59):
I guess my broader can her and as you know,
what I said previously, I'd rather be Trump than her.
Is your Democrats tend to have a better turnout ground
game than we do. Do you think we've we've done not?
You know, you mentioned, you know, I think obviously you know,
you know you mentioned. I think this election cycle probably
comes down to I feel like you'll win North Carolina,
(15:19):
but I worry about Pennsylvania and in part because of
that ground game, that turnout operation that Democrats have been
able to have, and you know, also some room for
Tom Fulery Shenanigans as well.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
Sure well, Chris do do a better job mechanically on turnout.
Most years, you know their their vote. Their vote is
typically very group based.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
And so there's the the structural here. You know, let
me send you an absentee ballot, let me call you
and harass you till you send your absentee ballot in.
And if you don't send your abency ballot in, We're
going to pick you up and drive you to the polls.
And that is a that is a that that's a
that strategy has worked a lot better for them over
the years. Republican turnout work tends to be persuasion oriented, right,
(16:02):
you have to you have to make a Democrat mobilized,
you have to make a Republican irritated. That's often how
it turnout works. And so I do think that the
mechanics this time for the Trump campaign are better than
he's had an either race before. He's had a very
professional campaign team that had a real big head start,
(16:25):
and they have done a lot of things, for instance,
on the ground in Pennsylvania and another state I'm setting
up close. You know, the Republicans. The gap between Democrats
and Republicans and mail balloting is much closer than it
was in twenty twenty. It's closer it was in twenty
twenty two. Well, that doesn't have by accident. That's because
it's being actively worked, and that's a weapon in or
(16:47):
President Trump's campaign arsenal that he's never had before.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Now does some of that speak to then? You know,
I guess what does the enthusiasm look like for her?
Because you Democrats obviously tend to do better in the
mail in ballots than we do. You know, we're more
kind of like game day type thing on election day
or you know, early voting or whatever. But does that
speak to like, maybe people aren't as excited about her,
(17:14):
and like even though the poll line shows it's tight,
that like, it's going to be harder to mobilize people
to be excited about her.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
Or I think we I think most of us expect
turnout to drop some from twenty twenty. You know a
lot of people are still sitting at home with not
much to do in twenty twenty, so why not vote?
You know, so I think turnout will be a little less,
and I think turnout enthusiasm for her it varies. Right
if for college educated liberals who live around other college
(17:43):
educated liberals, they have not been this excited about a
presidential election since two thousand and eight. And that's one
reason you see in some of the media polls she
outperforms what I think is reality. It's because those college
educated liberals are literally climbing through the telephone to tell
us scrape eacher what they think. And so I think
she does have enthusiasm with that. But you're talking about
(18:06):
thirty percent of the country, even before you subtract out
the Republicans in that group. So it's a It's not
a tremendous, tremendous number overall in the grand scheme of things,
but it's a loud number. So that's where I think
her challenge is to probably generate enthusiasm among people who
are lower income levels who the economy under Biden and
(18:29):
Harris had just crushed them, and trying to enthusias get
those those lower propensity, lower income democrats fired up to
do more of this. This is really hard for her, I.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Think, yeah, because you see our number, you know, kind
of because even you know, I can't remember what cha
Poole I saw, but I think it had him down
by twelve with women, but he lost to Hillary Clinton,
I believe by fifteen points with women in twenty sixteen
and still went on to win, or even with black voters.
She seems to be down than previous Democrats has ban it,
(18:59):
you know, so she's not sort of the coalition doesn't
look as strong as it has with past Democrat presidential candidates.
And it's interesting because even the you know, the New
York Times editorial board endorsing her, like they spent like
sixteen paragraphs talking about Trump, which was like way more
than telling us why Kamala. You know, it was all
just like we hate Trump. It wasn't a boost of Kamala,
whereas in twenty twenty, the entire endorsement was about how
(19:21):
great Joe Biden was, or you look at Tim Walls
and the debate where he really didn't defend her or
even push her record. He talked more about, you know,
his time as governor of Minnesota. And so it's like,
so I just worry about how that or I will
not worry because I want her to lose, But I
wonder how that correlates to It's hard to motivate people
if it's like if the New York Times he can't
(19:41):
even explain to its readers why Kamala. And it's just
then how are you mobilize that voter of being like, well,
why do we even turn out? You know what I mean?
It's like does that make sense in terms of.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Yes, I'm trying to well, yeah, there's this creative tension
going on in the Democrat messaging, right, it is like
what be it excited about what's next? Except don't focus
on how upset you are with how things are. And
so you can't talk about Kambala Harrison's accomplishments without also
owning this malaise that a lot of voters see us in,
(20:15):
with an economy that's been too stagnant, with the border
that's out of control, with the world that's on fire.
It's awfully hard to brag on her accomplishedness as vice
president and not have her not own up to that.
So that's that's why you don't see her doing many
inniverse interviews. It's uh, there's and it's whether it is
this inherent tension in their message. And you know, for
(20:35):
Democrats who are excited about her, you know, they're excited
about her because they think she might can beat Donald Trump.
That's why they're excited about her. It's not about anything
she has done. Or promises to do uh, and their
their enthusiasm is limited to what she might do on
the liver of the bit. So that's uh, that's that's
also is kind of an empty uh pat forward, empty momentum,
(20:58):
if you will.
Speaker 1 (20:59):
Yeah, And then I think that's challenging in that environment too,
when you know, you look at some of the pulling.
I think it was like CNN not too long ago
found that there's actually like Trump nostalgia where a majority
of Americans look back at his administration, you know, fondly,
or you look at the fact he's leading on the
economy and immigration, so like it was probably easier to
run on I'm not Trump and you know, you know,
tack Donald Trump like they did in twenty sixteen or
(21:21):
even in twenty twenty a Joe Biden I'm not Donald
Trump mean tweets, you know, whatever, whatever, But it's harder
to do now when everything is so bad under the
current administration. People have nostalgia about his administration, and then
he also leads on you know, the two top issues
for voters, both the economy and and immigration. So I
think it's you know, that anti Trump narrative, you know,
(21:43):
from an objective standbanks or even a common sense standpoint,
it seems like it might be a little harder to drive,
not discounting the fact that you know, there are Americans
who obviously can't stand him, but I'm just given that
backdrop of the environment.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Well, you know, every presidential election involves in the com
but it's always really centers on one question, are you
better up now than were four years ago? And well, she,
of course is the stand in incumbent for this administration,
and so I think that, uh, that's why you have
seen this election sort of stay on a pretty even
though the campaign around it has been very valid or
(22:19):
the polling has been relatively trading in very narrow bands,
and it's been it's simply because there's there's the majority
of the country is not really happy with where things
were are now relative four years ago.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
If you if the media covered her with any sort
of you know, fair you know, we've seen the numbers
like eighty four percent positive from Media Research Center. I
think ABC was like one hundred percent positive. And then
you know, obviously like eighty nine percent negative or Trump
or whatever it is. Uh, you know, how much influence
(22:52):
does that have on the electorate.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
Well, it's declining. I think I think a lot of
legacy media outlets are no longer respected by a great
deal of the country. You know. In my view, last night,
I think Norah O'Donnell and Varter Brennan DIDs real damage
their long term professional credibility by you know, breaking their
own rules to fact check Jadie Vance, but they didn't
(23:18):
have the right facts, and then they cut off his
mic when he exposed that they didn't have the right facts.
And so I think that certainly there has been glowing
coverage and in much of the legacy media for her
h and not near enough holding her to account for
not being accountable to them in interviews. But I also
think it's a narrower, narrower group that's influenced by that.
(23:41):
You know, there probably were just as many people last
night who who decided they thought less of CBS than
they thought less of either one of those candidates. And
I think that's a very real factor.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
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eight two four safe today that's eight four four eight
(25:21):
two four safe. You know, looking at the Senate, it seems,
you know, Republicans will likely win back the Senate. You know,
how do you where do you think some of these
races are going to fall down? And what do you think?
I assume the House will probably just follow whoever wins
the Senate and the presidency. But sort of what's looking
(25:45):
at sort of the congressional races, both Senate and House.
You know, how do you feel about the elector right now?
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Well, Republic's going to take over the Senate. Uh, they're
gonna be fifty one senators when at a minimum when
we wake up on November. The questions for where it's
fifty two, fifty three or fifty four and why does
that matter if you're a conservative? Well, if fifty one,
you just in the next two years with Susan Collins
and Lisa Murkowski being in the same catbird seats that
(26:13):
Joe Manson and Kristen Cinema will were for the Democrats
the last couple of years, where those two most moderate
members of the Senate Repolican conference would have very heavy
handed negotiations and on everything to get the pass through
the Senate, even if Republicans of the White House would
require both of them, and so on most most things.
(26:35):
And so that's that's a question Conservatives have to consider.
The second thing is, you know the next two Senate cycles,
and you know, only a third of the Senate's up
each election, So twenty six and twenty eight, Republicans will
be playing more defense this year where there's not much
Republican defense happening. It's all offense against Democratic incumbents. And
so holding a fifty one seat Senate the next two
(26:55):
cycles is not going to be easy. So my contention
is always been that it would be a failure for
Republicans to end up with fifty one, even though that
means taking control. I think Republicans need to be aiming
for fifty three or fifty four. This time. We have
the seats to do it. You know, the reason I
say fifty one is done because Joe Mansion Steed in
West Virginia is going to go to Jim Justice in Montana.
(27:17):
John Tester's time is up. You know, he's he's been
only thinking that is Montana about him as his haircut,
and so's his time is finally up. He's running great
Democratic years and lucked out a few times, but he's
going to lose this time. So that's fifty. I get
you to fifty one, and you have great chances for
Republicans to win in Pennsylvania with Dave McCormick, who is
(27:39):
running a great challenge to Bob Casey. You have in
Ohio state Trump's going to win by ten. I think
Bernie Moreno can beat Shared Brown there. You've got an
open seat in Michigan with Mike Rodgers who is running
against Alicia Slotkin, and there are plenty of undecided left
in that race. It's the state Donald Trump may carry,
and if so, he might be able to pull Mike
(27:59):
rod behind him. And then it Wisconsin, you know where
I think Tammy Baldwin has run an excellent race for
the Democrats, just tactically if I'm looking at the outside,
But you know, the state is more conservative than she is,
and the presidential race will be close, and so it
is still possible that she could also lose it.
Speaker 1 (28:17):
Wisconsin's an interesting state. I worked on the Tommy Thompson
for Senate campaign as his Commons director for the last
couple of months of the race against her. She's an
interesting character and it's an interesting state. So Alyssa Slotkin
was recently in a fundraising call. She was talking about
how her internal numbers have Kamala Harris underwater there. How
(28:41):
much of that do you think is I mean, obviously,
with these candidates, you're trying to get people's money, and
the only way to get money is if you're you know,
in a down position or it's a dogfighter or whatever.
How reflective of the environment do you think some of
these pools that we're seeing truly are? And then you know,
I guess as pulling become less accurate over the years
(29:04):
or you know, kind of talk a little bit about
that in terms of, you know, trying to really get
the truth and assess where you are in a campaign
with today's pulling.
Speaker 2 (29:15):
Well, first off, I take Sluckin's comments with a grain
of salt. You know, Democratic donors respond best to be flogged,
and so you have to tell them I'm losing. It's awful.
You have to save me. And then with their Messiah complex,
they write checks. On the Republican side, donors are a
lot more investor motivated. Right, they want to see that
(29:38):
you're almost produce a guaranteed return. That's what makes Republicans invest.
You know, if you give me money, I'll win. Democrats
response do better with If you don't give me money,
I'll lose. It's just an odd psychology that I don't
really fully understand how we got to this point. So
I would put a touch stock, but you know, is
(30:02):
getting harder because it's harder to get people to pick
up the phone and talk to a stranger for you know,
fifteen minutes or so. And so therefore posters are all making,
you know, decisions about their sample frame that have real
impact on the final numbers. And they're trying to do
(30:22):
their best to trying to figure out who's going to vote.
But there's some art to go with the science, and
you know, we were The other problem is we're washed
this in a lot of bad media polling. You know,
if you pull for a television network or a newspaper
or a university, nobody hires and fires you because you're
right or wrong. It's just a marketing tool for the network,
(30:43):
or for the or for the university. So as a result,
those polls tend to be pretty crappy. And the private
campaign polls on both sides, the Democrats or Republican campaigns
paid for, they cost a lot more. They're done with
a lot more care and by people with a lot
more experience than those states. Uh, and those polls are
pretty accurate, you know. I looked back at last time,
(31:04):
the New York Times said that Joe Biden was gonna
win Wisconsin by eleven. My partner Wes Anderson, had a
poll that had Joe Biden winning it by one. Well,
you know what he wanted by one, you know, so
it's it and then we're taking at the same time.
It's just somebody had had more experience than the other person.
So I think the public's kind of south on polls
(31:26):
because they uh that they see so many bad quality
polls in the news media that don't turn out to
be We're close to the to the truth. And I
think that that, you know, pole is still a very
valuable tool. It is getting harder, but but we still
gleamed a lot of important information.
Speaker 1 (31:44):
I guess before we go, I guess, how have you
seen Paul You know, you worked in politics for you know,
quite some time. He worked on a lot of different races,
a lot of different types of races. I guess, what
are the biggest ways you've seen the game chance and seeing,
you know, campaigning change.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
Well, I think the degradation of trust in legacy media
is one big thing.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
You know.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
We were I was talking with someone yesterday on the
Democrat side and they we used to go to all
the editorial boards and campaigns, right, it was just a
matter of course that you would take your candidate editorial boards.
I mean, most Republicans wouldn't get caught dead in the
editorial board now because it's a rig game. Uh. They've
got a camera running. They're trying to ask gotcha questions
and post things that will get clicks to their newspaper.
(32:32):
And you know, back in the old days, the editorial
board was entirely off the record. There were no reporters
in there. The publisher of the paper and their editorial
board members were just trying to understand the way each
candidate thought. And it was a pretty open and sometimes
colorful exchange of ideas. That's just gone, uh, and that's
probably for the worst. And the notion of reaching people
(32:54):
through interviews and what we call earned media. You know,
which which you been so good at. You know, that's
that's getting very very much a one side of a
street thing. You know. Republicans go to conservative news outlets
that reach the voters who might vote for Republicans, and
Democrats go to the don't lift left leading news outlets
(33:16):
that'll reach their voters, and and so the can don't
end up talking to the same people. And so that
on a day to day basis is very different. And
campaigns also can by pass them, you know. I mean
we used to live and die on can we get
three news cameras at one of our events. Well, now
we just take our own camp and cut package together
and put it up on social media and and let
(33:38):
let the public see it. So, uh, the way we
communicate on a day to day basis, and campaigns and
and and the filters we have to tolerate have really changed.
Speaker 1 (33:47):
And you know, I think Trump's use of podcasters it's
it's been interesting and uh, you know, to kind of
reaching especially those like the young men, like maybe those
xboxers you're talking you know, uh, just take a differentmographic
of voters. I guess very last question, I'll let you
go ex Center. You're busy guy, if you're you know what,
you are advising Republicans. But what if Republicans need to do,
(34:11):
What does Trump need to do to close this thing
out and get them over the line on November fifth? Like,
what do these next few weeks look like? What needs
to get done?
Speaker 2 (34:20):
I think Donald Trump has to do the thing that's
hardest for Donald Trump to do, and that is to
make this election not about himself, if he makes it
about how the voters feel about their own status, which
when he's at his best, he is great at doing that.
That's how he won in twenty sixteen. Is he spent
the last part of the election moving the shift of
(34:43):
the race onto the voters and what their interests were
and who stood in the way of the voters achieving
the things they wanted to do. I think that's the
task if he's able to make this race about the voters.
You know, because kayble Aras is not out campaigning, she's
not out hit you know, she's not hitting the trail
to near the extent the former president Trump is, and
(35:04):
Tim Wallas is knocked out like Jade Vancis. They they're
just not doing that level of voter contact. They're not
in the public gods and advertising. I think that they have.
The Trump Vance campaign has a real chance, but they
have to shift it off personality and make it about
where voters are. Is the economy better or worse than
it was four years ago? Is the border better or
worse than it was four years ago? Is the world
(35:26):
safer or down more dangerous than it was four years ago.
That's the task I think for the Trump Vance campaign,
and I think if they do do that, they have
a great chance to win.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
And I hope they do because the country's going to help.
So it's the world. Brad Todd, co founder on Message,
I really appreciate it. Thanks so much for making the time.
This is really interesting. I think we all learned a
lot to really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
Thanks a lot.
Speaker 1 (35:49):
There was Brad Todd. He's a founding partner of On
Message media firm. Appreciate him for taking the time to
join the show. Appreciate you guys at home for listening
every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week.
I want to think John Cassio and my producer for
putting the show together. Until next time,
The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show News
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Clay Travis
Buck Sexton
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