October 6, 2025 • 35 mins
In this episode, Ryan talks with political analyst Christian Heiens about the numbers shaping Virginia’s elections. They break down the controversy surrounding Jay Jones, explore how scandals influence voter behavior, and analyze the latest polling and early voting data. Heiens offers sharp insights into Virginia’s changing political landscape and what these trends could mean for the upcoming election results. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gerdusky. It
is a Monday, October sixth, twenty twenty five. There are
twenty nine days left till the twenty twenty five elections.
There are local elections happening all over the country, including Virginia,
New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Make a plan to
go vote, vote by mail, vote early, vote on election day,
whatever you need to do, just remember to go vote
(00:24):
in these local elections. Local elections matter much more than
the national elections to your everyday life, even though they
are not nearly as sexy and they don't have many
people show up to vote. Now, I know, I told
you many frequent listeners this podcast. I was going to
do an episode on Virginia last Monday, and then I
pushed it back a week to focus on New Jersey
because they had all that breaking news. And it's a
(00:45):
good thing, because so much information regarding the Virginia election
happened over the last week that I would have missed
out on it had I otherwise done it, you know,
on time, So it's great that we didn't rush. Okay,
first things first, let's talk about polling. Now. Remember polls
are not predictors of the future. They are snapshots of
the present. I remind everybody that because people believe that
(01:08):
a poll says something, therefore it's going to happen or
likely to happen. It is just how people feel in
the present. They can change at anytime. So a poll
was conducted by Scholars School, and we're released by the
Washington Post. Now I know what you may be thinking.
It's the Washington Post. There are a bunch of liberals,
but they actually have a pretty decent track record in
the state of Virginia, which is not an easy state
(01:30):
to poll. In twenty twenty one, their poll had Democrat
Terry mccaulliff winning by one point. He ended up losing
by two, So that's within the margin of error. It
means it's fairly accurate. And in twenty twenty four they
had Kamala Harris winning Virginia by eight. She won by
five point eight, so once again within the margin of era,
though slightly over sampling Democrats, but not to an outrageous degree,
(01:53):
not overly where it's like knowing by twenty and she
wins by five, it's fine, It's perfectly within the margin
of error. They had a poll on upcoming statewide elections
in Virginia and found that Democrats had a comfortable lead
in all three major races. First, there's the election for governor.
They had Democrat Abigail Spamberger up by twelve points. This
(02:14):
is in line with some other polls like the Christopher
Newport University poll, a terrible poll by the way, like
completely inaccurate, and an Emerson poll. Some other posters like
Trafalgar which nailed it in twenty twenty one. They have
a Spamburger only winning by five points, which is roughly
in line with some other poles. So you see, if
(02:36):
you have two collections of poll herding, you have the
polls that say that the Democrats for governors up by
five points, and then the ones that she says she's
going to win by double digits. The Washington Post Scholar
poll also looked at the other two statewide races, for
lieutenant governor, which in Virginia is elected separately from governor,
and the attorney general race. Now they founded the Democrat
(02:59):
for lieutenant governor, Gazala Hassami is up by four points,
which is not a great lead, especially given that the
governors up by a huge amount, and that j Jones,
a Democrat nominee for Attorney General, leads Republican incumbent Jason
Mirerez by six points among likely voters. Interesting enough, the
same poll finds that the majority of Virginians really agree
(03:21):
with President Trump on several big issues. When asked that
they supported policies to find and deport illegal immigrants, Virginians
said yes by a forty nine to forty four percent margin,
including a majority or plurality of men, Republicans, moderates, whites,
voters over the age of thirty, and voters of all
(03:43):
educational backgrounds aside from post graduate degree holders. When asked
at the state and local government to be doing more
to help apprehend illegal immigrants, fifty percent of Virginian said yes,
forty seven said no. And then, when asked if public
schools should allow trans girls to play in sports with
biological girls, nearly seventy percent said no. They said they
(04:05):
shouldn't be allowed to only twenty to only twenty percent
said yes. Now, Interestingly, the main issue Republican candidate for
governor wins some seers. The current Lieutenant governor has been
campaigning on since day one, and the centerpiece of her
entire campaign. Basically the focus of all her ass has
been transgender sports, something that Virginia's overwhelmingly agree with her on.
(04:29):
The thing is that it's not a high ranking issue,
not nearly as much as the economy, which she has
focused much, much less on than the transgender sports issue.
That conversation, however, started to change over the weekend, and
that is because of two controversies that landed at the
feet of Democratic Attorney General candidate j Jones. First, it
(04:51):
was revealed that Jones was convicted of reckless driving in
twenty twenty two, where he was driving at one hundred
and sixteen miles per hour down a high way. It
was going well over fifty miles over the speed limit.
He ended up having to perform five hundred hours of
community service, and the community service he served under was
his own political action committee, not exactly cleaning streets on
(05:14):
the side of the highway or cleaning the service or
on the side of the highway. That seemed bad, but
it was nothing compared to the story that came out
by Audra Fahlberg at National View, which came out over
the weekend that Jones had texted a Republican colleague in
the state legislator. He serves in the state legislator texted
(05:34):
a Republican colleague about how annoyed he was that fellow
Republicans were honoring a deceased legislator. This also happened in
twenty twenty two. I'm sure many of you've heard about
these messages, but if you haven't, I'm going to tell
you right now. It's dark. It's very, very dark, So
prepare yourself. Democrat Jay Jones said that if Republican colleague
(05:55):
is if his Republican colleague, former House Speaker Todd Gilbert,
Virginia House Speaker Toddler Gilbert died before him, he was
going to quote piss on his grave. He then said
of Hitler, Polpott and Todd Gilbert, the Speaker of the
Virginia House, were in a room, and he had two
bullets and a gun. He would shoot Todd Gilbert twice.
I'm going to preface by saying that this is a
(06:17):
line from a very popular TV show called The Office.
Michael Scott says this at one point as much as
Democrats have used that, saying that that is a joke
and that he was just joking. His Republican colleague was
not taking it as a joke. She didn't reply with
a laughing emoji or an lol. He wrote that there
was Republican colleague said, please stop. This is not two
(06:38):
buddies paling around and having quote unquote locker room talk
or whatever. One person is clearly uncomfortable in this conversation.
They say, it makes me really uncomfortable when you talk
about hurting people or wishing death upump. So the idea
that some people have that this was like all just
you know, they were just joking at work. It wasn't
a joke. Only one person was very clearly not laughing
(07:02):
and telling them to stop. That part of the confert
was dark. And the Republican colleague who they're texting. The
republic colleague name is Carrie Kanyer. By the way, Carrie
apparently calls Jay Jones and they hop on a conversation
and it takes a turn over the phone. Now we
don't know the exact words that are being said, but
(07:22):
they resumed texting after the phone conversation. J Jones says
in the text, I wasn't attacking you. I was trying
to understand your logic. And the Republican colleague Carrie Kanye's replies,
you weren't trying to understand. You were talking about hoping
Jennifer Gilbert to Gilbert's wife that Jennifer Gilbert's children would die. Jones,
totally unrepented, replied, yes, I've told you this before. Only
(07:44):
when people feel pain personally do they move on policy.
Carrie the Republican clarified that Jones actually said over the
phone that he hoped that children were murdered in the
state Speaker's wife's arms while she watched, which led Carrie
Kanyer to hang up the phone on him. Joan said
one last text masters in exchange, I mean, do I
think Todd and Jennifer are evil and that they are
(08:06):
breeding a little fascist question Mark. Yes. The children he
are taught he's talking about wishing to see murder are
very clearly that I've seen in pictures under the age
of ten. One of them, I'm completely judging by the
way they look, looks about five years old. This is
really disturbing, It is really dark. It is really showing
(08:27):
his true feelings for a Republican who, by the way,
why he was annoyed with the Republican was because he
was saying something nice about a deceased Democrat colleague. That
is what triggered him to be so angry, is that
a Republican was saying something nice about his fellow colleague
in the state legislator who had passed away, who happened
(08:48):
to be a Democrat. This isn't a joke. This is
a deeply disturbed individual, right and you could see in
his long string of things that happened around the year twelve.
When the story broke out, Jones actually lashed out. He said, quote,
like all people, I've sent text messages that I regret,
(09:09):
and I believe that violent rhetoric has no place in
our politics. But let me be clear. What is happening
is that Attorney general race right now. Jason Miarrez is
dropping smears through Trump controlled media organizations to assault my
character and rescue his desperate campaign. This race is about
whether Trump can control Virginia or Virginians can control Virginia.
By the way, the National Review is not Drump controlled.
(09:31):
If you're not a frequent reader of the National View,
it is very conservative. It's a conservative critical magazine of
the Trump administration. And they famously published a magazine cover
in twenty sixteen, called the case against Trump. A few
hours later, he and the reaction started pouring in and
they were all horrified at what Jade Jones had said.
He released a second statement. He said, I take full
(09:53):
responsibility for my actions, and I want to issue my
deepest apologies for Speaker Gilbert and his family reading back
those words, and he's sick to my stomach. I'm embarrassed, ashamed,
and sorry. That was not his first reaction. I think
that it's really important to say. It wasn't until people
started saying this is really gross that he said. This
is not just going to be a little political tip
(10:14):
where we all kind of forget what I just sat
there and said, this is not going to be a moment,
you know, as watered down as our politics have gotten,
talking about having children being murdered was really a line
that thankfully people still can't cross. Democrats running for office
and Democrats elected statewide in Virginia said he needs to
(10:36):
be accountable, but they didn't call him to drop out.
Neither did the Washington Post, which wrote an editorial, Well,
we'll see. I'm saying you need to be held accountable.
I don't know what accountable means, aside from dropping out
of the race and quitting doing politics like that's what
accountable is. Saying there's no room for that kind of
(10:56):
rhetoric in our politics is great, but when some one
does use that kind of rhetoric, they should be punished
for it. And if you're really serious about toning down
the toning down the heat, you need to take the ultimate,
the ultimate step, and you need to sit there and
say you cannot vote for him, you cannot support him,
(11:17):
Please vote for the Republican. We're gonna win the other
two statewide races. It doesn't or likely to win. Definitely
the governor's race and you know, possibly the lieutenant governor's
race were ahead, and the polls. It's time to be serious, people,
and that means seriously not supporting J.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Jones.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
They did not do that, and in fact, several Democrats
doubled down in their support. He didn't lose a single
national Democratic endorsement, though I will say a few Democratic
state legislative candidates did walk away from him. So credit
goes to where it's due for those few brave people
who were like, this is just too much for those
of you who don't know much about Jay Jones. This
(11:55):
is the same man who once called for a Norfolk
police lieutenant to be fired after donating twenty five dollars
to Kyle Ridenhouse's legal defense fund. And according to the
report that I read, the police lieutenant did lose his job.
So Jay Jones does believe in accountability, that people lose
their jobs when they do something that he finds beyond
the pale, just not him. He is doubling down that
(12:17):
he is running this race. He is doing this and
it has opened the door for Republicans to talk about
something that people feel and understand. Republicans released an ad
over the weekend. I don't know how much money they're
putting behind the ad about Jay Jones's comments. Here's the
problem for Republicans. And Jason Miora is the Attorney General
nominee who is the incumbent, has the most money basically
(12:40):
of anyone in the race, and he's got millions to spend.
Here's his problem. Virginia has forty five days of early voting.
As of Saturday, three hundred and fifty four thousand people
had already cast their ballots. That's about eight percent of
the total from the twenty twenty four election in Virginia
and eleven percent of the twenty twenty one election in Virginia,
(13:00):
the governor's race in Virginia, So a lot of people
who may have been horrified and said, wow, I can't
support that kind of person already voted for him, and
then mail, by the way, lags, so it's well over
three hundred and fifty four thousand people have cast their ballid.
Because the state shouldn't have two months of early voting.
That's too long, and I'm sure I can. I will
(13:23):
bet my bottom dollar there were Republicans who absolutely supported
such a long voting voting time period. But that's what
happens when the late breaking news comes. Hundreds of thousands
of people already cast their balt before all the information
is there for them to see. Virginians do not register
to vote by parties, so we don't know how they
would have voted. Because it's not like New Jersey, where
(13:46):
it's very clearly here's the Republican total lot, here's the
Democrat turnout. Virginia, we can only look at what precincts
and counties they are voting in. What we do know
right now is is that precincts, which is like smaller
than accounties. It's just a little ara. Precincts where Trump
went in twenty twenty four have had about one hundred
(14:08):
and thirty six thousand voters turn out, while precincts that
Harris one have two hundred and seventeen thousand voters come out.
So it's not two to one, but it's it's a
good it's a good split. Democrats definitely had the advantage
because they've taken advantage of the mail campaign. Early voting
in person has just began. It should tighten. Hopefully it tightens,
(14:33):
but Republicans have a lot of catching up to do,
like they do in New Jersey because of the mail
in voting. We'll see if j Jones's comment really changes
the game. I think it's something that is so horrifying
and so disgusting. Suburban women who otherwise vote Democrat but
maybe voted for Glenn Youngkin should turn on Jay Jones
(14:55):
and maybe it will affect the entire Democratic ticket. Who
refuses to hold actually accountable and asking him to drop
out with me today on today's episode. Is an expert
on all things Virginia politics. My conversation with him is
coming up next. My guest on today's episode is Christian Hines,
the Oracle of Virginia, expert of all things in the
(15:18):
States politics. Thank you for coming on, Christian. I appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Thanks for having me Ryan so Christian.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
The text messages from Jay Jones have obviously been a
lot of controversy. Just this morning, Morning Joe Joe Scarborough,
Morning Joe call for him to drop out. How has
the text messages from Jay Jones changed or has it
changed the state of the election.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
So this is a pretty difficult topic, right, Virginia has
not really had a lot of tickets split voting and
really the last twenty something years, right, last time that
this happened was two thousand and five where Republicans lost
the governorship and then they ended up holding on to
the down ballot race for attorney general. Since then, it's
been you know, if the Democrats win statewide or the
(15:59):
Reportublicans win statewide, then they carry.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Everybody underneath them.
Speaker 3 (16:03):
I know that a lot of people have this idea
that this year might be a little bit different, especially
with you know, we have this scandal on the lieutenant
governor's ballot for Republicans, the Poland doesn't really look that
great for the top of the ticket. But obviously, the
context in this case is that Jay Jones said some
truly awful stuff. I mean, I'm sure that everybody who's
(16:23):
watching this already knows about it. But the context is
is that he basically went full mask off texted another
Republican legislator that he wanted to see the former Speaker
of the House of Delegates at the time, the Speaker
of the House of Delegates, Republican Todd Gilbert, dead by
his own hands, and that he wanted to see Gilbert's
children die and their mother's arms. And obviously, Republican Delegate
(16:46):
Carrie Coiner, just like most normal people, did not take
kindly to that. And then Jay dug himself an even
deeper hole when he tried to explain the situation to
Carrie and basically just confirmed that he actually did mean that.
And now here we are three years later and this
news has come out, so obviously everybody thinks that this
is going to affect the race, and it is. I mean,
(17:06):
Jay has not really done a great job defending himself.
Right his first press release that he put out, he
basically said that he was the victim, and that you know,
this is an attack by Trump, by by you know,
conservative outlets that are going after him. And then the
response from some Democrat officials in Virginia, not even just
the top of the ticket, right, but you know, we're
talking about Louise Lucas, we're talking about state legislators and Richmond.
(17:29):
It was really weak, if you think about it. They
stopped short of condemning it outright. They said that, you
know that they didn't agree with his words, but they
didn't condemn him. They didn't disavow him, they didn't say
that they would stop campaigning with him, and certainly nobody
has called on him to drop out. And so then
you have one more point that it's added on to
this whole saga, which is that a few days after
that state, you know, our county level and locality level
(17:53):
Democratic Party organizations, primarily in Virginia Beach but not just
Virginia Beach came out and said that they're still supporting him. So,
I mean, I think that we have to be taking
seriously the idea that yes, he's going to be obviously
the worst performing Democrat on the ballot, but I think
he still has a shot in this thing, to be honest,
and I cannot believe that I'm saying that under normal
(18:14):
political circumstances he.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
Should be losing this race.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
If he even gets to the general election by a
double digit landslide, there should be like Mark Robinson in reverse,
and so he probably has like a fifty to fifty
shot of winning.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
So there is a race. There was a race in
twenty thirteen for governor, lieutenant governor, and Attorney general in Virginia,
and the lieutenant governor was a black pastor I can't
remember his name, E. W. Jackson or something like that,
and he lost by an eleven point landslide, and the
Republican running for attorney general loss by something like less
(18:49):
than a thousand votes.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
It was a few hundred recount.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
It was a recount. It was a very very close election.
And if the ken kuchnelly of the governor candidate would
have likely one had a libertarian not also been on
the ticket, taking five percent of the vote from that
election cycle. In that case, the candidate above them did
not affect the attorney generals of case, and it was
a very big ticket splitting election. The fact that I
(19:12):
mean is whin some Sears really holding down the whole
ticket in your estimate.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
No, what I think it is is that just the
secular trends in Virginia have finally reached a tipping point.
I mean I've been saying that since twenty fourteen. You
can ask my good friend Nick Fredis, who's in the legislature.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
He's actually retiring this year.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
He and I have been going at this for over
ten years now, of debating which direction the state was
going in. And I still have the original Facebook post
from back when I was in college where I was like,
we're doomed in Virginia. I've already looked at the number,
you know, I was like twenty at a time. And
I've been believing this for a long time now, that
we were just moving in this direction of being basically
a permanent blue state. And I think a lot of
(19:51):
people kind of forget this because of Youngkins win in
twenty twenty one and even the fact that Republicans have
been competitive, you know through Trump's president. See, with the
exception of twenty twenty he kept it close. In twenty
twenty four I was following the state every day. That's
how you and I first met. Yeah, it was it
was almost six. It was like five and a half,
and it was basically in line with where it was
(20:12):
in twenty sixteen. And so I think a lot of
people have looked at that. They've looked at the repeated
over performance of Republicans down ballot. They've done very well
down ballot. We kind of forget this because they don't
control the legislature, but you know, it's a one seat
majority for Democrats currently in both seats, you know, are
sorry both chambers of the legislature, and they only fell
short by just a few thousand votes in twenty twenty
(20:34):
three of actually capturing a trifecta. So we look at
these things and we say that, well, Virginia still a
swing state, it just leans blue. But I think if
you look a little bit deeper at the long term trajectory,
to me, it's pretty clear that the state is starting
to move out of reach for Republicans in the same
way that Colorado already has, and.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
I think we're just at that tipping point.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
The one silver lining is is that a lot of
this has been driven by Northern Virginia, which obviously is
directly affected the federal level. And so if you get
say a massive reduction in a federal expenditures title contractors
and federal workers. Then that could theoretically shift the state
back into a competitive environment. But at the moment, I
just I think that we're kind of moving into this
(21:16):
perennial blue state category.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
Jason Miars has raised the most amount of money as everybody.
And actually one interesting thing of how he's been able
to raise so much money is that the Muslim Brotherhood
of the United States is headquartered in Virginia, and he's
done he's open up investigations into the Muslim Brotherhood of America,
and he's gotten a lot of support from Jewish donors
across the country, like New yor other places have sat
(21:40):
there and said, we need someone who's going to hold
these groups accountable. And he's the only one who's going
to be able to do it. Given then he has
so many millions of dollars cash on hand, he has
the ability of getting this message really out there. Now
about eight to ten percent of the Virginia electorate has
already voted. Do you think that if he spends the
money correctly, there's a way that he can pull this
(22:02):
out even and if the top of the ticket is lagging.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
I mean sure, of course, especially with you know, the
again the type of ammunition that he's working with. I
probably shouldn't use that analogy, to be honest, like you know,
in terms in terms of what Jay Jones has done
and said, and then his response to the original store,
which was, you know, arguably just made it only worse.
I definitely think that Miras has a shot. But you know,
(22:26):
I remember that Jeb Bush at one point had you know,
an infinite amount of money too, And I don't want
to make that comparison to say that Miaras is the
equivalent of Jeb Bush, because I know that in some
Republican circles that would be taken as an insult, and
I don't. I don't mean it as an insult. I
simply mean it as an analogy here that you know,
money does not change the fact that secular trends are
moving in a particular direction.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Do I think that Mirs has a shot?
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Yeah, it's just as I do.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
But I think it's a fifty to fifty shot.
Speaker 1 (22:53):
It's just that you can broadcast this message at a
larger and you can make sure everybody hears it. You
have your own set of mind languish. I find so interesting,
and your modeling found it as a So far the
early vote has sixty forty Democrat, how do you get
to that estimate?
Speaker 3 (23:09):
So the way that this works is is that Virginia
collects all of this data. They just don't collect party affiliation.
We're one of many states that we don't register by party.
But there are many groups out there that do a
really good job of modeling partisanship. There's plenty on the
right that do this, and so what they end up
doing is is that they just assign a affiliation score
based on a variety of metrics that I won't get
(23:31):
into because it's very convoluted and boring. But the point
is is that you can model how much to the
left or right somebody is, and once you combine that
with how often they vote right, their propensity in voting
in the last four elections, and in Virginia that's easy
because we have an election every single year. Well, then
you can end up determining using the early vote numbers,
how many of those people are likely to show up
(23:53):
on election day. And at that point you have both
halfs of the puzzle that need to be put together.
And then you can end up creating a pretty reliable
metric for what you think the whole election is going
to look like. I did this in Technically, I've been
doing this since twenty nineteen, but people haven't really been
paying attention until twenty twenty one. I did it myself
privately for a campaign that I worked on in twenty nineteen.
(24:15):
I did it in twenty twenty for a freightis Is
congressional race ironically against Spamberger, and then I did it
in twenty twenty one for.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Youngkin.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
I didn't do it Forest campaign. I did it for
that race. I didn't do it in twenty twenty two.
I had other stuff going on.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
We're just being autested. In twenty twenty three, I did
is we're doing we're just being a testing.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Yeah. I just do it because I'm I. You know,
I geeked out about this stuff.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
I mean, I have done it for campaigns before, but
I do it myself as well just because you know,
I do it for the love of the game. And
I've done it in twenty twenty three, and obviously you
and I first met from doing it in twenty twenty
four last year for the presidential and I still kick
myself at how how it could have been closer if
I had just tweaked a few things that hopefully.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
I will get right this year.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
My goal is to get it within a point I was,
but technically I was just over a point off in
part because Rockingham County double counted their mail in vote,
which is I think that's cheating.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
Literally, that is it's unfair.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
Okay. So what I like about you, aside from being
very thorough, is that a lot of election analysis people
are just brazen liberals and they just pretend that they're
being fair or non like whatever. Like even I really
like Chasnetty Comb a lot, but he is a lib
and like you know, he's very much rooting for one
side to win. They're openly sitting there and saying Democrats
(25:34):
cannot only win the state House, but they can get
to a veto proof majority. Do you think that's possible
that Democrats Republicans will lose nine zeens.
Speaker 3 (25:43):
Even if this is a bad year, right, if it's
just you know, everything breaks in their direction when you
look at the maps, they would have to end up
flipping you know, seats that voted for Trump by you know,
eight plus points. There's plenty of districts in Virginia that
have been consistently Republican, even if it's been less by
you know, less than ten points, and they would have
(26:04):
to flip almost all of those type of seats in
order to get to sixty six sixty seven in the
House of Delegates. You know, could they pick up multiple seats?
I think they can. The maps are heavily weighted in
their favor. There's one district in Henriiko that they're they're
very likely to flip, in large part because they almost
wanted in a twenty twenty three despite having a horrible
campaign that was run on the part of a Democrat
(26:27):
that you know, was embroiled in a unique scandal of
her own.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Well we'll just leave horn that star.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
Yes, and they almost won that seat. So I mean, yeah,
there's plenty of target opportunities for them, But you know,
is there enough for them to get to sixty seven
or even sixty six? I just I think that I
think it would be a stretch for them to get
to sixty is it?
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Is it possible?
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Is it likely? Probably not?
Speaker 1 (26:53):
So. There is a Christopher Newport pole coming out today.
I don't really like that as a pollster. I don't
think they're very accurate. I think they oversampled Democrats way
too much. What are signs that people who are interested
should be looking at to see how the election is
swinging and swaying in your mind going forward in the
last thirty days.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
I agree with you that CNU does not have a
good track record. They're consistently overshooting Democrats. They've done this
for years. I mean, they did it even I believe
in twenty twenty, and it was hard to overshoot Democrats
in Virginia in twenty twenty, right, they won the state
by ten points, and yet CNU had I'm pretty sure
Biden by like twelve or fifteen or something like that.
(27:34):
So I don't really put much stock in c ANDU,
but I would say that you can. You could look
at maybe the crosstobs. I don't know if they're going
to have anything about early voting. If they have that,
I would take that seriously. I would not take their
top line party identification. If they include that, I would
look at that as well. So there's going to be
things in that poll that are valuable even if the
poll itself isn't valuable, and that could be indicative of
(27:56):
how the early vote and thus the entire election might
end going.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
Is there any other things that we should be looking
out for, any pollsters that you look at besides the
CNU poll that's coming out. Is there anything we should
be looking to.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yeah, believe it or not.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
I mean you were talking a minute ago about how
many you know, so many people on election Twitter on
the left, and they are like, and I am I
mean Ryan, you know this like I am. You know,
without hesitation, I will admit that I am as far
to the right as you possibly can go in this fear,
but you know, I do try to pride myself in
getting the outcome correct. And on the flip side, there's
one outlet that I would never recommend them for anything
(28:31):
other than this, and that's the Washington Post. Washington Post,
you know, terrible magazine, you know, not magazine, terrible newspaper
in my opinion, But their polling track record is not awful.
In Virginia, they had Harris winning Virginia by six and
last year in twenty twenty four and she wanted by
almost six And they were one of a handful of
outlets that said that this was going to be a
very competitive race for governor in twenty twenty one, and
(28:53):
it turned out to be.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
And well they had ours, not bad. They did six
among register voters, not likely leaders. They had an I
talked about that at the top of the show. They
are a good polster. They lean a little to the left,
but they are a good polster. But I don't know
if they're going to do another poll before the election day.
It's the only thing, but I hope that they do
because things may have changed with the whole texting scandal.
I think it is a serious scandal. I think it's
actually real and it could change things with Christian Where
(29:16):
can people go to read more about you your analysis
which is very very good. You're very thorough, and you're
one of the smarter people who is not an open
you know, liberal rooting for Democrats to win and just
you know, trend forecasting for it. Where can people go
to read more of your stuff?
Speaker 2 (29:30):
So I'm mostly on x Ryan.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
You you know about this because you know we've been
following each other for so long, But you could just
follow me on at Christian Hines And it's a really
weird way to spell Hines and it's h E I E.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
N s. So like old McDonald E.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
I E.
Speaker 2 (29:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
I don't know where that came from, but you know
it is a German last name. So that's where I
post most of this stuff if they're really into, you know,
just in.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
The weeds type of stuff about politics.
Speaker 3 (29:57):
I also co host the Making the Argument podcast with
Nick Fredis, who is a he's actually my state delegate
currently he's leaving office at the end of this year,
but he's also prominent on online as well when I'm
on a show twice a week. So those are the
two places that if people really wanted to they could
find me.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
Well, Christian, thank you for being here. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Thanks a lot. Ryan.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
Now it's time for Ask Me Anything. If you weren't
be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email
me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's Ryan
at Numbers Plural Numbers Game Podcast dot com. I love
these questions. They help the show. I look forward to
them every day and I reply to every single one,
either privately or on air. So this question comes from
juny Perow. This is a pseudonym, so Jinnipero, thank you
(30:44):
for listening to this podcast. He asked for some clarifications
on things I have said on previous episodes. He says,
is New Jersey going from blue to purple the unusual
given West Virginia's trajectory in recent decades. I don't remember
saying that, but I do compare the states often because
(31:05):
it just shows how quickly states can change. From nineteen
sixty eight to nineteen eighty eight, for twenty years, Virginia
was a pretty solidly Republican state and West Virginia was
a solid Democrat state. West Virginia voted for Democrats in
eight out of ten elections from nineteen sixty to two thousand.
I remember Bill Clinton won West Virginia twice, as did
Jimmy Carter against Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty. I was
(31:28):
probably just talking about why how states can change very
quickly in the blink of an eye, and I probably
sometimes my brain is going faster than my mouth, so
I forget a worry when I'm just ad libbing, which
is why I write everything down. New Jersey is turning
into a swing state, though, because something very unique is
happening in the Tri state area that is universally not
(31:48):
happening nationwide, and it's a lot of ethnic minorities, especially
recent immigrants, have really turned on Democrats. Plus a lot
there is in places like New York City, there is
a declining black population. They are the most loyal Democratic voters.
In New Jersey, it is a stagnant Black American population.
That does not mean black Americans period. That means historically
(32:11):
black Americans. Black immigrants are responsible for most of the
increase of the black population. It also helps a New
Jersey the fifteen percent of the population is Italian. Italians
are one of the most reliably Republican voting blocks who
are white. He also asks, are Armenian slash Georgians really white? Now?
I ask because technically I'm Armenian and I've always described
(32:34):
it as West Asian given the east of Bosporusic. I
don't know what that means. Sorry, but our Armenians and
Georgians are really white. Yes. Under the census, Armenians are
categorized as white, which is what I am using when
I'm describing them, is how census data is looking at them.
I'm in twenty ten, the census officially changed where Armenians, Georgians,
(32:54):
and West Asians are categorized as white. You can call
it whatever you like to, but on the census data,
when you're looking at since stated, they are counted as white.
So Kim Kardashian is white, despite her despite her fake
tan and all the men that she has dated, she
is white according to the census. Lastly, any thoughts advice
about attending law school. I work for fed SOOC and
(33:15):
on our GOP congressional campaign, among other places, and I'm
submitting applications at the end of the month. This is
a very difficult question for me because not only did
I not go to law school, I barely went to college,
and I went to just a community college nearby. I
was not a good student of my entire life. It's
just not that I don't appreciate someone who goes to
get a degree. It's just I don't learn in a classroom.
(33:37):
I'm not like that. But my best advice I could
give is look at where the most opportunities are to
either clerk or to get an internship at a top
law firm. The job economy sucks, the job market sucks
right now. You want to go in. If you're in
a stout for three years, you want to go in
to make as much connections as you possibly can, so
you don't have to send a resume online. You can
(33:59):
actually make phone calls and get meetings beforehand. I think
that that's the best advice you could possibly give. Figure
out which law firm focus is, what you wanted, what
you want to do, and really make sure they have
a good list of people who went there, and try
to hustle a network you know you want to. You
want to go to college, whether it be law school
(34:20):
or anything else, and you want you you go there
to make people, to make connections, because the minute you graduate,
you've got to hit the ground running. Because what I
tell myself every day working in all my various jobs,
and what I have told myself i'm thirty eight now
for the last twenty years, is that there are a
million people behind you who want your job, and you
(34:40):
better hustle to try to beat every one of them.
Even though you can't see them, they are all wanting
your job, so you better work at it every day
like you've never done it before, and like you're someone
who's got something to lose. So that's my best advice.
I don't know if it helps, I think to law school,
but good luck. I hope you get into whatever law
firm you apply to, and I hope you keep listening
to the podcast. Thank you all for listening. If you
(35:03):
like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple podcast, or wherever you listen, and I will see
you guys on Thursday. Go vote
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gerdusky. It
is a Monday, October sixth, twenty twenty five. There are
twenty nine days left till the twenty twenty five elections.
There are local elections happening all over the country, including Virginia,
New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Make a plan to
go vote, vote by mail, vote early, vote on election day,
whatever you need to do, just remember to go vote
(00:24):
in these local elections. Local elections matter much more than
the national elections to your everyday life, even though they
are not nearly as sexy and they don't have many
people show up to vote. Now, I know, I told
you many frequent listeners this podcast. I was going to
do an episode on Virginia last Monday, and then I
pushed it back a week to focus on New Jersey
because they had all that breaking news. And it's a
(00:45):
good thing, because so much information regarding the Virginia election
happened over the last week that I would have missed
out on it had I otherwise done it, you know,
on time, So it's great that we didn't rush. Okay,
first things first, let's talk about polling. Now. Remember polls
are not predictors of the future. They are snapshots of
the present. I remind everybody that because people believe that
(01:08):
a poll says something, therefore it's going to happen or
likely to happen. It is just how people feel in
the present. They can change at anytime. So a poll
was conducted by Scholars School, and we're released by the
Washington Post. Now I know what you may be thinking.
It's the Washington Post. There are a bunch of liberals,
but they actually have a pretty decent track record in
the state of Virginia, which is not an easy state
(01:30):
to poll. In twenty twenty one, their poll had Democrat
Terry mccaulliff winning by one point. He ended up losing
by two, So that's within the margin of error. It
means it's fairly accurate. And in twenty twenty four they
had Kamala Harris winning Virginia by eight. She won by
five point eight, so once again within the margin of era,
though slightly over sampling Democrats, but not to an outrageous degree,
(01:53):
not overly where it's like knowing by twenty and she
wins by five, it's fine, It's perfectly within the margin
of error. They had a poll on upcoming statewide elections
in Virginia and found that Democrats had a comfortable lead
in all three major races. First, there's the election for governor.
They had Democrat Abigail Spamberger up by twelve points. This
(02:14):
is in line with some other polls like the Christopher
Newport University poll, a terrible poll by the way, like
completely inaccurate, and an Emerson poll. Some other posters like
Trafalgar which nailed it in twenty twenty one. They have
a Spamburger only winning by five points, which is roughly
in line with some other poles. So you see, if
(02:36):
you have two collections of poll herding, you have the
polls that say that the Democrats for governors up by
five points, and then the ones that she says she's
going to win by double digits. The Washington Post Scholar
poll also looked at the other two statewide races, for
lieutenant governor, which in Virginia is elected separately from governor,
and the attorney general race. Now they founded the Democrat
(02:59):
for lieutenant governor, Gazala Hassami is up by four points,
which is not a great lead, especially given that the
governors up by a huge amount, and that j Jones,
a Democrat nominee for Attorney General, leads Republican incumbent Jason
Mirerez by six points among likely voters. Interesting enough, the
same poll finds that the majority of Virginians really agree
(03:21):
with President Trump on several big issues. When asked that
they supported policies to find and deport illegal immigrants, Virginians
said yes by a forty nine to forty four percent margin,
including a majority or plurality of men, Republicans, moderates, whites,
voters over the age of thirty, and voters of all
(03:43):
educational backgrounds aside from post graduate degree holders. When asked
at the state and local government to be doing more
to help apprehend illegal immigrants, fifty percent of Virginian said yes,
forty seven said no. And then, when asked if public
schools should allow trans girls to play in sports with
biological girls, nearly seventy percent said no. They said they
(04:05):
shouldn't be allowed to only twenty to only twenty percent
said yes. Now, Interestingly, the main issue Republican candidate for
governor wins some seers. The current Lieutenant governor has been
campaigning on since day one, and the centerpiece of her
entire campaign. Basically the focus of all her ass has
been transgender sports, something that Virginia's overwhelmingly agree with her on.
(04:29):
The thing is that it's not a high ranking issue,
not nearly as much as the economy, which she has
focused much, much less on than the transgender sports issue.
That conversation, however, started to change over the weekend, and
that is because of two controversies that landed at the
feet of Democratic Attorney General candidate j Jones. First, it
(04:51):
was revealed that Jones was convicted of reckless driving in
twenty twenty two, where he was driving at one hundred
and sixteen miles per hour down a high way. It
was going well over fifty miles over the speed limit.
He ended up having to perform five hundred hours of
community service, and the community service he served under was
his own political action committee, not exactly cleaning streets on
(05:14):
the side of the highway or cleaning the service or
on the side of the highway. That seemed bad, but
it was nothing compared to the story that came out
by Audra Fahlberg at National View, which came out over
the weekend that Jones had texted a Republican colleague in
the state legislator. He serves in the state legislator texted
(05:34):
a Republican colleague about how annoyed he was that fellow
Republicans were honoring a deceased legislator. This also happened in
twenty twenty two. I'm sure many of you've heard about
these messages, but if you haven't, I'm going to tell
you right now. It's dark. It's very, very dark, So
prepare yourself. Democrat Jay Jones said that if Republican colleague
(05:55):
is if his Republican colleague, former House Speaker Todd Gilbert,
Virginia House Speaker Toddler Gilbert died before him, he was
going to quote piss on his grave. He then said
of Hitler, Polpott and Todd Gilbert, the Speaker of the
Virginia House, were in a room, and he had two
bullets and a gun. He would shoot Todd Gilbert twice.
I'm going to preface by saying that this is a
(06:17):
line from a very popular TV show called The Office.
Michael Scott says this at one point as much as
Democrats have used that, saying that that is a joke
and that he was just joking. His Republican colleague was
not taking it as a joke. She didn't reply with
a laughing emoji or an lol. He wrote that there
was Republican colleague said, please stop. This is not two
(06:38):
buddies paling around and having quote unquote locker room talk
or whatever. One person is clearly uncomfortable in this conversation.
They say, it makes me really uncomfortable when you talk
about hurting people or wishing death upump. So the idea
that some people have that this was like all just
you know, they were just joking at work. It wasn't
a joke. Only one person was very clearly not laughing
(07:02):
and telling them to stop. That part of the confert
was dark. And the Republican colleague who they're texting. The
republic colleague name is Carrie Kanyer. By the way, Carrie
apparently calls Jay Jones and they hop on a conversation
and it takes a turn over the phone. Now we
don't know the exact words that are being said, but
(07:22):
they resumed texting after the phone conversation. J Jones says
in the text, I wasn't attacking you. I was trying
to understand your logic. And the Republican colleague Carrie Kanye's replies,
you weren't trying to understand. You were talking about hoping
Jennifer Gilbert to Gilbert's wife that Jennifer Gilbert's children would die. Jones,
totally unrepented, replied, yes, I've told you this before. Only
(07:44):
when people feel pain personally do they move on policy.
Carrie the Republican clarified that Jones actually said over the
phone that he hoped that children were murdered in the
state Speaker's wife's arms while she watched, which led Carrie
Kanyer to hang up the phone on him. Joan said
one last text masters in exchange, I mean, do I
think Todd and Jennifer are evil and that they are
(08:06):
breeding a little fascist question Mark. Yes. The children he
are taught he's talking about wishing to see murder are
very clearly that I've seen in pictures under the age
of ten. One of them, I'm completely judging by the
way they look, looks about five years old. This is
really disturbing, It is really dark. It is really showing
(08:27):
his true feelings for a Republican who, by the way,
why he was annoyed with the Republican was because he
was saying something nice about a deceased Democrat colleague. That
is what triggered him to be so angry, is that
a Republican was saying something nice about his fellow colleague
in the state legislator who had passed away, who happened
(08:48):
to be a Democrat. This isn't a joke. This is
a deeply disturbed individual, right and you could see in
his long string of things that happened around the year twelve.
When the story broke out, Jones actually lashed out. He said, quote,
like all people, I've sent text messages that I regret,
(09:09):
and I believe that violent rhetoric has no place in
our politics. But let me be clear. What is happening
is that Attorney general race right now. Jason Miarrez is
dropping smears through Trump controlled media organizations to assault my
character and rescue his desperate campaign. This race is about
whether Trump can control Virginia or Virginians can control Virginia.
By the way, the National Review is not Drump controlled.
(09:31):
If you're not a frequent reader of the National View,
it is very conservative. It's a conservative critical magazine of
the Trump administration. And they famously published a magazine cover
in twenty sixteen, called the case against Trump. A few
hours later, he and the reaction started pouring in and
they were all horrified at what Jade Jones had said.
He released a second statement. He said, I take full
(09:53):
responsibility for my actions, and I want to issue my
deepest apologies for Speaker Gilbert and his family reading back
those words, and he's sick to my stomach. I'm embarrassed, ashamed,
and sorry. That was not his first reaction. I think
that it's really important to say. It wasn't until people
started saying this is really gross that he said. This
is not just going to be a little political tip
(10:14):
where we all kind of forget what I just sat
there and said, this is not going to be a moment,
you know, as watered down as our politics have gotten,
talking about having children being murdered was really a line
that thankfully people still can't cross. Democrats running for office
and Democrats elected statewide in Virginia said he needs to
(10:36):
be accountable, but they didn't call him to drop out.
Neither did the Washington Post, which wrote an editorial, Well,
we'll see. I'm saying you need to be held accountable.
I don't know what accountable means, aside from dropping out
of the race and quitting doing politics like that's what
accountable is. Saying there's no room for that kind of
(10:56):
rhetoric in our politics is great, but when some one
does use that kind of rhetoric, they should be punished
for it. And if you're really serious about toning down
the toning down the heat, you need to take the ultimate,
the ultimate step, and you need to sit there and
say you cannot vote for him, you cannot support him,
(11:17):
Please vote for the Republican. We're gonna win the other
two statewide races. It doesn't or likely to win. Definitely
the governor's race and you know, possibly the lieutenant governor's
race were ahead, and the polls. It's time to be serious, people,
and that means seriously not supporting J.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Jones.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
They did not do that, and in fact, several Democrats
doubled down in their support. He didn't lose a single
national Democratic endorsement, though I will say a few Democratic
state legislative candidates did walk away from him. So credit
goes to where it's due for those few brave people
who were like, this is just too much for those
of you who don't know much about Jay Jones. This
(11:55):
is the same man who once called for a Norfolk
police lieutenant to be fired after donating twenty five dollars
to Kyle Ridenhouse's legal defense fund. And according to the
report that I read, the police lieutenant did lose his job.
So Jay Jones does believe in accountability, that people lose
their jobs when they do something that he finds beyond
the pale, just not him. He is doubling down that
(12:17):
he is running this race. He is doing this and
it has opened the door for Republicans to talk about
something that people feel and understand. Republicans released an ad
over the weekend. I don't know how much money they're
putting behind the ad about Jay Jones's comments. Here's the
problem for Republicans. And Jason Miora is the Attorney General
nominee who is the incumbent, has the most money basically
(12:40):
of anyone in the race, and he's got millions to spend.
Here's his problem. Virginia has forty five days of early voting.
As of Saturday, three hundred and fifty four thousand people
had already cast their ballots. That's about eight percent of
the total from the twenty twenty four election in Virginia
and eleven percent of the twenty twenty one election in Virginia,
(13:00):
the governor's race in Virginia, So a lot of people
who may have been horrified and said, wow, I can't
support that kind of person already voted for him, and
then mail, by the way, lags, so it's well over
three hundred and fifty four thousand people have cast their ballid.
Because the state shouldn't have two months of early voting.
That's too long, and I'm sure I can. I will
(13:23):
bet my bottom dollar there were Republicans who absolutely supported
such a long voting voting time period. But that's what
happens when the late breaking news comes. Hundreds of thousands
of people already cast their balt before all the information
is there for them to see. Virginians do not register
to vote by parties, so we don't know how they
would have voted. Because it's not like New Jersey, where
(13:46):
it's very clearly here's the Republican total lot, here's the
Democrat turnout. Virginia, we can only look at what precincts
and counties they are voting in. What we do know
right now is is that precincts, which is like smaller
than accounties. It's just a little ara. Precincts where Trump
went in twenty twenty four have had about one hundred
(14:08):
and thirty six thousand voters turn out, while precincts that
Harris one have two hundred and seventeen thousand voters come out.
So it's not two to one, but it's it's a
good it's a good split. Democrats definitely had the advantage
because they've taken advantage of the mail campaign. Early voting
in person has just began. It should tighten. Hopefully it tightens,
(14:33):
but Republicans have a lot of catching up to do,
like they do in New Jersey because of the mail
in voting. We'll see if j Jones's comment really changes
the game. I think it's something that is so horrifying
and so disgusting. Suburban women who otherwise vote Democrat but
maybe voted for Glenn Youngkin should turn on Jay Jones
(14:55):
and maybe it will affect the entire Democratic ticket. Who
refuses to hold actually accountable and asking him to drop
out with me today on today's episode. Is an expert
on all things Virginia politics. My conversation with him is
coming up next. My guest on today's episode is Christian Hines,
the Oracle of Virginia, expert of all things in the
(15:18):
States politics. Thank you for coming on, Christian. I appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (15:21):
Thanks for having me Ryan so Christian.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
The text messages from Jay Jones have obviously been a
lot of controversy. Just this morning, Morning Joe Joe Scarborough,
Morning Joe call for him to drop out. How has
the text messages from Jay Jones changed or has it
changed the state of the election.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
So this is a pretty difficult topic, right, Virginia has
not really had a lot of tickets split voting and
really the last twenty something years, right, last time that
this happened was two thousand and five where Republicans lost
the governorship and then they ended up holding on to
the down ballot race for attorney general. Since then, it's
been you know, if the Democrats win statewide or the
(15:59):
Reportublicans win statewide, then they carry.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Everybody underneath them.
Speaker 3 (16:03):
I know that a lot of people have this idea
that this year might be a little bit different, especially
with you know, we have this scandal on the lieutenant
governor's ballot for Republicans, the Poland doesn't really look that
great for the top of the ticket. But obviously, the
context in this case is that Jay Jones said some
truly awful stuff. I mean, I'm sure that everybody who's
(16:23):
watching this already knows about it. But the context is
is that he basically went full mask off texted another
Republican legislator that he wanted to see the former Speaker
of the House of Delegates at the time, the Speaker
of the House of Delegates, Republican Todd Gilbert, dead by
his own hands, and that he wanted to see Gilbert's
children die and their mother's arms. And obviously, Republican Delegate
(16:46):
Carrie Coiner, just like most normal people, did not take
kindly to that. And then Jay dug himself an even
deeper hole when he tried to explain the situation to
Carrie and basically just confirmed that he actually did mean that.
And now here we are three years later and this
news has come out, so obviously everybody thinks that this
is going to affect the race, and it is. I mean,
(17:06):
Jay has not really done a great job defending himself.
Right his first press release that he put out, he
basically said that he was the victim, and that you know,
this is an attack by Trump, by by you know,
conservative outlets that are going after him. And then the
response from some Democrat officials in Virginia, not even just
the top of the ticket, right, but you know, we're
talking about Louise Lucas, we're talking about state legislators and Richmond.
(17:29):
It was really weak, if you think about it. They
stopped short of condemning it outright. They said that, you
know that they didn't agree with his words, but they
didn't condemn him. They didn't disavow him, they didn't say
that they would stop campaigning with him, and certainly nobody
has called on him to drop out. And so then
you have one more point that it's added on to
this whole saga, which is that a few days after
that state, you know, our county level and locality level
(17:53):
Democratic Party organizations, primarily in Virginia Beach but not just
Virginia Beach came out and said that they're still supporting him. So,
I mean, I think that we have to be taking
seriously the idea that yes, he's going to be obviously
the worst performing Democrat on the ballot, but I think
he still has a shot in this thing, to be honest,
and I cannot believe that I'm saying that under normal
(18:14):
political circumstances he.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
Should be losing this race.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
If he even gets to the general election by a
double digit landslide, there should be like Mark Robinson in reverse,
and so he probably has like a fifty to fifty
shot of winning.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
So there is a race. There was a race in
twenty thirteen for governor, lieutenant governor, and Attorney general in Virginia,
and the lieutenant governor was a black pastor I can't
remember his name, E. W. Jackson or something like that,
and he lost by an eleven point landslide, and the
Republican running for attorney general loss by something like less
(18:49):
than a thousand votes.
Speaker 2 (18:50):
It was a few hundred recount.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
It was a recount. It was a very very close election.
And if the ken kuchnelly of the governor candidate would
have likely one had a libertarian not also been on
the ticket, taking five percent of the vote from that
election cycle. In that case, the candidate above them did
not affect the attorney generals of case, and it was
a very big ticket splitting election. The fact that I
(19:12):
mean is whin some Sears really holding down the whole
ticket in your estimate.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
No, what I think it is is that just the
secular trends in Virginia have finally reached a tipping point.
I mean I've been saying that since twenty fourteen. You
can ask my good friend Nick Fredis, who's in the legislature.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
He's actually retiring this year.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
He and I have been going at this for over
ten years now, of debating which direction the state was
going in. And I still have the original Facebook post
from back when I was in college where I was like,
we're doomed in Virginia. I've already looked at the number,
you know, I was like twenty at a time. And
I've been believing this for a long time now, that
we were just moving in this direction of being basically
a permanent blue state. And I think a lot of
(19:51):
people kind of forget this because of Youngkins win in
twenty twenty one and even the fact that Republicans have
been competitive, you know through Trump's president. See, with the
exception of twenty twenty he kept it close. In twenty
twenty four I was following the state every day. That's
how you and I first met. Yeah, it was it
was almost six. It was like five and a half,
and it was basically in line with where it was
(20:12):
in twenty sixteen. And so I think a lot of
people have looked at that. They've looked at the repeated
over performance of Republicans down ballot. They've done very well
down ballot. We kind of forget this because they don't
control the legislature, but you know, it's a one seat
majority for Democrats currently in both seats, you know, are
sorry both chambers of the legislature, and they only fell
short by just a few thousand votes in twenty twenty
(20:34):
three of actually capturing a trifecta. So we look at
these things and we say that, well, Virginia still a
swing state, it just leans blue. But I think if
you look a little bit deeper at the long term trajectory,
to me, it's pretty clear that the state is starting
to move out of reach for Republicans in the same
way that Colorado already has, and.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
I think we're just at that tipping point.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
The one silver lining is is that a lot of
this has been driven by Northern Virginia, which obviously is
directly affected the federal level. And so if you get
say a massive reduction in a federal expenditures title contractors
and federal workers. Then that could theoretically shift the state
back into a competitive environment. But at the moment, I
just I think that we're kind of moving into this
(21:16):
perennial blue state category.
Speaker 1 (21:18):
Jason Miars has raised the most amount of money as everybody.
And actually one interesting thing of how he's been able
to raise so much money is that the Muslim Brotherhood
of the United States is headquartered in Virginia, and he's
done he's open up investigations into the Muslim Brotherhood of America,
and he's gotten a lot of support from Jewish donors
across the country, like New yor other places have sat
(21:40):
there and said, we need someone who's going to hold
these groups accountable. And he's the only one who's going
to be able to do it. Given then he has
so many millions of dollars cash on hand, he has
the ability of getting this message really out there. Now
about eight to ten percent of the Virginia electorate has
already voted. Do you think that if he spends the
money correctly, there's a way that he can pull this
(22:02):
out even and if the top of the ticket is lagging.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
I mean sure, of course, especially with you know, the
again the type of ammunition that he's working with. I
probably shouldn't use that analogy, to be honest, like you know,
in terms in terms of what Jay Jones has done
and said, and then his response to the original store,
which was, you know, arguably just made it only worse.
I definitely think that Miras has a shot. But you know,
(22:26):
I remember that Jeb Bush at one point had you know,
an infinite amount of money too, And I don't want
to make that comparison to say that Miaras is the
equivalent of Jeb Bush, because I know that in some
Republican circles that would be taken as an insult, and
I don't. I don't mean it as an insult. I
simply mean it as an analogy here that you know,
money does not change the fact that secular trends are
moving in a particular direction.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
Do I think that Mirs has a shot?
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Yeah, it's just as I do.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
But I think it's a fifty to fifty shot.
Speaker 1 (22:53):
It's just that you can broadcast this message at a
larger and you can make sure everybody hears it. You
have your own set of mind languish. I find so interesting,
and your modeling found it as a So far the
early vote has sixty forty Democrat, how do you get
to that estimate?
Speaker 3 (23:09):
So the way that this works is is that Virginia
collects all of this data. They just don't collect party affiliation.
We're one of many states that we don't register by party.
But there are many groups out there that do a
really good job of modeling partisanship. There's plenty on the
right that do this, and so what they end up
doing is is that they just assign a affiliation score
based on a variety of metrics that I won't get
(23:31):
into because it's very convoluted and boring. But the point
is is that you can model how much to the
left or right somebody is, and once you combine that
with how often they vote right, their propensity in voting
in the last four elections, and in Virginia that's easy
because we have an election every single year. Well, then
you can end up determining using the early vote numbers,
how many of those people are likely to show up
(23:53):
on election day. And at that point you have both
halfs of the puzzle that need to be put together.
And then you can end up creating a pretty reliable
metric for what you think the whole election is going
to look like. I did this in Technically, I've been
doing this since twenty nineteen, but people haven't really been
paying attention until twenty twenty one. I did it myself
privately for a campaign that I worked on in twenty nineteen.
(24:15):
I did it in twenty twenty for a freightis Is
congressional race ironically against Spamberger, and then I did it
in twenty twenty one for.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
Youngkin.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
I didn't do it Forest campaign. I did it for
that race. I didn't do it in twenty twenty two.
I had other stuff going on.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
We're just being autested. In twenty twenty three, I did
is we're doing we're just being a testing.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Yeah. I just do it because I'm I. You know,
I geeked out about this stuff.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
I mean, I have done it for campaigns before, but
I do it myself as well just because you know,
I do it for the love of the game. And
I've done it in twenty twenty three, and obviously you
and I first met from doing it in twenty twenty
four last year for the presidential and I still kick
myself at how how it could have been closer if
I had just tweaked a few things that hopefully.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
I will get right this year.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
My goal is to get it within a point I was,
but technically I was just over a point off in
part because Rockingham County double counted their mail in vote,
which is I think that's cheating.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
Literally, that is it's unfair.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
Okay. So what I like about you, aside from being
very thorough, is that a lot of election analysis people
are just brazen liberals and they just pretend that they're
being fair or non like whatever. Like even I really
like Chasnetty Comb a lot, but he is a lib
and like you know, he's very much rooting for one
side to win. They're openly sitting there and saying Democrats
(25:34):
cannot only win the state House, but they can get
to a veto proof majority. Do you think that's possible
that Democrats Republicans will lose nine zeens.
Speaker 3 (25:43):
Even if this is a bad year, right, if it's
just you know, everything breaks in their direction when you
look at the maps, they would have to end up
flipping you know, seats that voted for Trump by you know,
eight plus points. There's plenty of districts in Virginia that
have been consistently Republican, even if it's been less by
you know, less than ten points, and they would have
(26:04):
to flip almost all of those type of seats in
order to get to sixty six sixty seven in the
House of Delegates. You know, could they pick up multiple seats?
I think they can. The maps are heavily weighted in
their favor. There's one district in Henriiko that they're they're
very likely to flip, in large part because they almost
wanted in a twenty twenty three despite having a horrible
campaign that was run on the part of a Democrat
(26:27):
that you know, was embroiled in a unique scandal of
her own.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Well we'll just leave horn that star.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
Yes, and they almost won that seat. So I mean, yeah,
there's plenty of target opportunities for them, But you know,
is there enough for them to get to sixty seven
or even sixty six? I just I think that I
think it would be a stretch for them to get
to sixty is it?
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Is it possible?
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Is it likely? Probably not?
Speaker 1 (26:53):
So. There is a Christopher Newport pole coming out today.
I don't really like that as a pollster. I don't
think they're very accurate. I think they oversampled Democrats way
too much. What are signs that people who are interested
should be looking at to see how the election is
swinging and swaying in your mind going forward in the
last thirty days.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
I agree with you that CNU does not have a
good track record. They're consistently overshooting Democrats. They've done this
for years. I mean, they did it even I believe
in twenty twenty, and it was hard to overshoot Democrats
in Virginia in twenty twenty, right, they won the state
by ten points, and yet CNU had I'm pretty sure
Biden by like twelve or fifteen or something like that.
(27:34):
So I don't really put much stock in c ANDU,
but I would say that you can. You could look
at maybe the crosstobs. I don't know if they're going
to have anything about early voting. If they have that,
I would take that seriously. I would not take their
top line party identification. If they include that, I would
look at that as well. So there's going to be
things in that poll that are valuable even if the
poll itself isn't valuable, and that could be indicative of
(27:56):
how the early vote and thus the entire election might
end going.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
Is there any other things that we should be looking
out for, any pollsters that you look at besides the
CNU poll that's coming out. Is there anything we should
be looking to.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yeah, believe it or not.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
I mean you were talking a minute ago about how
many you know, so many people on election Twitter on
the left, and they are like, and I am I
mean Ryan, you know this like I am. You know,
without hesitation, I will admit that I am as far
to the right as you possibly can go in this fear,
but you know, I do try to pride myself in
getting the outcome correct. And on the flip side, there's
one outlet that I would never recommend them for anything
(28:31):
other than this, and that's the Washington Post. Washington Post,
you know, terrible magazine, you know, not magazine, terrible newspaper
in my opinion, But their polling track record is not awful.
In Virginia, they had Harris winning Virginia by six and
last year in twenty twenty four and she wanted by
almost six And they were one of a handful of
outlets that said that this was going to be a
very competitive race for governor in twenty twenty one, and
(28:53):
it turned out to be.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
And well they had ours, not bad. They did six
among register voters, not likely leaders. They had an I
talked about that at the top of the show. They
are a good polster. They lean a little to the left,
but they are a good polster. But I don't know
if they're going to do another poll before the election day.
It's the only thing, but I hope that they do
because things may have changed with the whole texting scandal.
I think it is a serious scandal. I think it's
actually real and it could change things with Christian Where
(29:16):
can people go to read more about you your analysis
which is very very good. You're very thorough, and you're
one of the smarter people who is not an open
you know, liberal rooting for Democrats to win and just
you know, trend forecasting for it. Where can people go
to read more of your stuff?
Speaker 2 (29:30):
So I'm mostly on x Ryan.
Speaker 3 (29:33):
You you know about this because you know we've been
following each other for so long, But you could just
follow me on at Christian Hines And it's a really
weird way to spell Hines and it's h E I E.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
N s. So like old McDonald E.
Speaker 3 (29:45):
I E.
Speaker 2 (29:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
I don't know where that came from, but you know
it is a German last name. So that's where I
post most of this stuff if they're really into, you know,
just in.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
The weeds type of stuff about politics.
Speaker 3 (29:57):
I also co host the Making the Argument podcast with
Nick Fredis, who is a he's actually my state delegate
currently he's leaving office at the end of this year,
but he's also prominent on online as well when I'm
on a show twice a week. So those are the
two places that if people really wanted to they could
find me.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
Well, Christian, thank you for being here. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Thanks a lot. Ryan.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
Now it's time for Ask Me Anything. If you weren't
be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email
me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's Ryan
at Numbers Plural Numbers Game Podcast dot com. I love
these questions. They help the show. I look forward to
them every day and I reply to every single one,
either privately or on air. So this question comes from
juny Perow. This is a pseudonym, so Jinnipero, thank you
(30:44):
for listening to this podcast. He asked for some clarifications
on things I have said on previous episodes. He says,
is New Jersey going from blue to purple the unusual
given West Virginia's trajectory in recent decades. I don't remember
saying that, but I do compare the states often because
(31:05):
it just shows how quickly states can change. From nineteen
sixty eight to nineteen eighty eight, for twenty years, Virginia
was a pretty solidly Republican state and West Virginia was
a solid Democrat state. West Virginia voted for Democrats in
eight out of ten elections from nineteen sixty to two thousand.
I remember Bill Clinton won West Virginia twice, as did
Jimmy Carter against Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty. I was
(31:28):
probably just talking about why how states can change very
quickly in the blink of an eye, and I probably
sometimes my brain is going faster than my mouth, so
I forget a worry when I'm just ad libbing, which
is why I write everything down. New Jersey is turning
into a swing state, though, because something very unique is
happening in the Tri state area that is universally not
(31:48):
happening nationwide, and it's a lot of ethnic minorities, especially
recent immigrants, have really turned on Democrats. Plus a lot
there is in places like New York City, there is
a declining black population. They are the most loyal Democratic voters.
In New Jersey, it is a stagnant Black American population.
That does not mean black Americans period. That means historically
(32:11):
black Americans. Black immigrants are responsible for most of the
increase of the black population. It also helps a New
Jersey the fifteen percent of the population is Italian. Italians
are one of the most reliably Republican voting blocks who
are white. He also asks, are Armenian slash Georgians really white? Now?
I ask because technically I'm Armenian and I've always described
(32:34):
it as West Asian given the east of Bosporusic. I
don't know what that means. Sorry, but our Armenians and
Georgians are really white. Yes. Under the census, Armenians are
categorized as white, which is what I am using when
I'm describing them, is how census data is looking at them.
I'm in twenty ten, the census officially changed where Armenians, Georgians,
(32:54):
and West Asians are categorized as white. You can call
it whatever you like to, but on the census data,
when you're looking at since stated, they are counted as white.
So Kim Kardashian is white, despite her despite her fake
tan and all the men that she has dated, she
is white according to the census. Lastly, any thoughts advice
about attending law school. I work for fed SOOC and
(33:15):
on our GOP congressional campaign, among other places, and I'm
submitting applications at the end of the month. This is
a very difficult question for me because not only did
I not go to law school, I barely went to college,
and I went to just a community college nearby. I
was not a good student of my entire life. It's
just not that I don't appreciate someone who goes to
get a degree. It's just I don't learn in a classroom.
(33:37):
I'm not like that. But my best advice I could
give is look at where the most opportunities are to
either clerk or to get an internship at a top
law firm. The job economy sucks, the job market sucks
right now. You want to go in. If you're in
a stout for three years, you want to go in
to make as much connections as you possibly can, so
you don't have to send a resume online. You can
(33:59):
actually make phone calls and get meetings beforehand. I think
that that's the best advice you could possibly give. Figure
out which law firm focus is, what you wanted, what
you want to do, and really make sure they have
a good list of people who went there, and try
to hustle a network you know you want to. You
want to go to college, whether it be law school
(34:20):
or anything else, and you want you you go there
to make people, to make connections, because the minute you graduate,
you've got to hit the ground running. Because what I
tell myself every day working in all my various jobs,
and what I have told myself i'm thirty eight now
for the last twenty years, is that there are a
million people behind you who want your job, and you
(34:40):
better hustle to try to beat every one of them.
Even though you can't see them, they are all wanting
your job, so you better work at it every day
like you've never done it before, and like you're someone
who's got something to lose. So that's my best advice.
I don't know if it helps, I think to law school,
but good luck. I hope you get into whatever law
firm you apply to, and I hope you keep listening
to the podcast. Thank you all for listening. If you
(35:03):
like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,
Apple podcast, or wherever you listen, and I will see
you guys on Thursday. Go vote
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