October 15, 2025 • 36 mins
Hour 3 of The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show dives deep into the latest political trends, election forecasts, and cultural flashpoints shaping America. The hour kicks off with guest Ryan Girdusky, host of It’s a Numbers Game, analyzing key battleground races in Virginia and New Jersey. Ryan breaks down polling data, prediction markets, and enthusiasm gaps, explaining why Virginia’s attorney general race could swing Republican even if Democrats hold the governorship. He also highlights New Jersey’s tightening gubernatorial contest, where GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli faces an uphill battle despite strong independent support and a notable enthusiasm gap among Democratic voters.
The conversation shifts to House and Senate control, with Ryan outlining how upcoming Supreme Court rulings on the Voting Rights Act could reshape congressional maps and make it nearly impossible for Democrats to reclaim the House. He warns that striking down Section 2 would trigger aggressive GOP redistricting across Southern states, fundamentally altering the political landscape.
Next, the show pivots to New York City politics, dissecting Andrew Cuomo’s struggling mayoral campaign and why his failure to court Republican voters could cost him the race. Ryan argues Cuomo’s lackluster strategy stems from decades of unchallenged political dominance, leaving him ill-prepared for a competitive contest. Cultural commentary takes center stage as Clay and Buck discuss Hollywood’s shifting attitudes, spotlighting Keira Knightley’s response to questions about the Harry Potter boycott over J.K. Rowling’s views on gender issues. Her dismissive laugh signals growing fatigue with woke orthodoxy, even among celebrities.
The hour also features a fiery interview with Steve Hilton, Republican candidate for California governor. Hilton slams Gavin Newsom’s leadership, exposing California’s deep problems—highest poverty and unemployment rates, worst public school performance, soaring taxes, and a broken housing system. He contrasts Newsom’s rosy stump speech touting California’s size and economic clout with harsh realities like wildfire recovery failures and bureaucratic gridlock. Hilton vows to reverse far-left policies, including laws allowing biological men in women’s sports, and calls on listeners nationwide to support his campaign.
Finally, Clay and Buck engage listeners with humorous talkbacks on everyday fears—like choking alone at home—adding a relatable, lighthearted close to an hour packed with political insight and cultural critique.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome everybody. Third hour of Clay and Buck kicks off.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Now.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Our friend Ryan Gardusky is with us.
Speaker 3 (00:06):
He has a great podcast, It's a numbers game out
of the Clay in Bucks podcast network. You're going to
impress your friends with all of the data and insights
and insidery political stuff out there. You got to check
out It's a numbers game with our friend Ryan, mister Gerdusky.
Speaker 4 (00:22):
Great to have you, Thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Let's start with this.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Are we seeing increased weakness on the Democrat side and
hopefulness for Winsome Sears and Jason Mars. I want to
focus on Virginia first. Here the Jay Jones situation coupled
with who's the guy that wrote the text about how
he wanted a Republican and his family and his kids
(00:47):
to die? And then you got that situation and then
the Spamberger running around refusing to talk about Jay Jones
and also refusing to speak clearly about the trans issue.
Is this having an impact or is it status quo
in that election which is going to be decided in
just a couple of weeks.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
So, I mean, all we have is just polling to
go on. Remember Virginia does not register voters by partying,
so we can estimate where voters are coming from, how
they voted in the last election, but that doesn't really
tell us an enormous amount of information. We just have polls.
There have been two polls. They're both from right leading
firms that examine how they look. One's from a poll
(01:27):
called Signal. They are decently active, they have a good reputation.
They have Miaras up by two points leading in and
then there's Trafalgar. Trafalgar. Now, Trafalgar has had a great
reputation till twenty twenty two, and they really went off
the rails of twenty twenty two. But last year they
were the fifth most accurate polster in America, and in
twenty twenty one they nailed the Virginia election completely right.
(01:48):
Trafalgar estimated that Niarra's went from losing by four points
to Jones to beating him by six points. And if
you can look at the Miara's campaign, they've released new
ads saying you know, I know you're going to vote
for the Democrat or governor, Please do not vote for
Jones for ag and then they have clips of the
Democratic candidate for governor saying every voter needs to make
(02:11):
their own choice, refusing to endorse him on the debate stage.
So that has that that is the message of their
commands saying, we know you're in vote for the Democrat
or governor. They expect the Democrat to win the governorship,
but make your own decision. And they have the Democrat
governor candidate's own words saying, make your own, make your
own choice. Of all the races, we're seeing a big swing,
it's that race in Virginia.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
The AG race, Ryan, I am, and this is probably
not going to surprise anybody obsessed with poly market and Calci,
because what you just mentioned is there are a lot
of polls out there. Oftentimes they have a bias one
direction or another, and as we all know, a lot
of polls are just flat out wrong. How much attention
do you pay to the prediction markets and let me
(02:53):
tell you what they are saying and see whether it
would square with what your expectations are. Gambling market, look
at them. You don't look at it all right, I'm
obsessed with.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Because they're just going off of information that we all see.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
I'm not sure that that's true, But let me give
you the data here, they say there's a ninety percent
chance that Mom Donnie wins. They say that they're then
again this is this is based on dollars, not poll numbers.
They say that there is a ninety some odd percent
chance that Spanberger wins. They say that there is an
eighty percent chance that the Democrat wins in New Jersey.
(03:29):
But to your point, Miaras is now favored in the
Virginia ag If all of that came down, what do
you think is most likely to be wrong of those
markets right now? Is there anything? Is Cuomo gonna have
a chance? Is New Jersey Virginia?
Speaker 5 (03:46):
Like?
Speaker 1 (03:46):
What could they be wrong about? Those are the prediction
markets right now.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
I mean they could be wrong without Miaras, because at
the end of the day, the question for me area
is this, how much does the Democrat win the governorship
a Virginia buy It would take an enormous amount if
she wins by double digits for him to win. Right
they want Winston Sears has to keep this race competitive
and close, which is why you've seen the Republicans dump
(04:11):
millions of dollars into the governorship race in the last
few weeks because they know if they can keep this closed,
they can win the AGC. If they give up completely,
then there's no chance that the AG can hold on
and they might lose even they might lose almost double
digits state legislative seats. So they want to keep it
close because they want the down ballot effects to the
(04:33):
Jones effect rather the j Jones controversy, to manage to
hold on Republicans and a number of key legislative seats.
And in the AG race, that's what they can get
most wrong about. The one that so she wins by
double digit j Jones is probably squeak By as well.
The other question is is that the New Jersey race,
it's been very interesting, is happening. And this is not
(04:55):
just in polling, but this is in the actual early
vote polling. Right now, Mickey Cheryl the Democrat holds a
lead by about five to six points, basically what Kamala
Harris had last time in the last race. A Quinny
pack Pole just released minutes ago, have her up by
six points to Jack Tirelli fifty to forty four. But
(05:16):
there is an enthusiasm gap that is sizeable. It's a
thirteen point enthusiasm gap by more in favor of Republicans
than Democrats. When you look at the mail in vote,
there's something very interesting happening. Remember Mickey Cheryl lost the
inner city vote in the Democratic primary by huge numbers. Black,
Hispanic Asian voters did not want her to be the nominee,
(05:39):
and she prevailed. She's a white lady from a very
wealthy part of New Jersey, very isolated. When you break
down the precinct returns from where people are returning their
ballot remember their ballots at home. I mean it's not
like they have a go somewhere to go vote. It's
been at home for weeks. There is a ten point
drop off from majority white districts to majority minority districts.
(06:01):
So districts that are over fifty percent white in New
Jersey have over thirty percent people return their ballots. When
you go to Asian districts or Black districts or spect
it's less than twenty. In some cases it's I'm average
of twenty one. That's an eleven point enthusiasm gap that
you're seeing the mail in ballots. The question you have
to ask yourself is if they are not even returning
(06:22):
the ballots when it's at their house, how enthusiastic. Were
the millions of other New Jersey Democrats where mostly minorities
in these areas are going to be to actually show
up on election day and give her, give her the
numbers that she needs to win, because if they don't
shovel on election day, she can't win. Despite having a
very large, padded lead in the mail in ballot.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Can the Republican win Ryan in your mind? I mean,
that's That's really what I wanted to ask you here.
Is Is this a close enough rice where you could
say it is realistic that we could have a Republican
governor again in New Jersey?
Speaker 5 (06:56):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (06:56):
I think I think. I don't think that when sinceers
can win in Virginia. I just think there's tuning mistakes
to be made, and she didn't run a campaign focused
on energy prices, which is key. I think Jack Ciarelli
has done everything right and he's experienced the balance when
he needed it. Quinnypiak is a left leaning Polster. They
gave him a three point bounce from their last poll.
It's tidened, for sure. There is an enthusiasm gap, and
(07:19):
there's an enthusiasm gap and registration. What I think the
I mean the common problem is is that New Jersey
still is a blue state. So the Democrats have a
lead in that, and they have an advantage in that,
and that might just be just enough in a year
where the president is a Republican because that does affect
people want to vote for the party outside of the presidency.
(07:41):
The question you the thing that differ differentially these polls.
There's been three polls re Jacarelli leading in the poll
in the election. The difference between polls that have him
leave it leading or have him tied, or have him
brother losing by four or five points is how does
he do with independence? Most of these see he is
winning the independent vote. If he wins the independent vote
(08:03):
by fifteen to twenty points, and some of these polls
have sat there and said he's leading by then he's
going to sit there and hold on to his race
and he's going to win it. And if the makeup
is changing because the electorate is more excited among the
Republican side, if he's only leading by eight points or
seven points, he's probably going to lose by not by
very much. And we'll see if he's got cotails, you know,
below him. Virginia. I think that Jason Merris can can
(08:25):
be the one winner of the night to sit there
and squeak by and have a and have a good
knight for Republicans in Virginia.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Okay, this is basically the appetizer for the mid terms.
Ryan and we started off playing Harry Enton talking about
all of the decisions that still have to be made
relating to the House. It feels like to us, and
you tell us if we're wrong, that Republicans are in
a very strong place to retain control of the Senate,
(08:52):
considering they're going to have tie break, so it would
require four lost seats, which is a steep road. What
do you see in the House, And how impactful, if
at all, is New Jersey, Virginia and the New York
City mayor's race whatever results we get in a few
weeks when it comes to what might happen a year.
Speaker 4 (09:10):
From now, I think that in New Jersey, the New
York City, the mayor's race, and the New Jersey race,
that's a bigger question towards what does twenty thirty two
look like if they're the incumbent governors, and what does
the presidential election look like in twenty twenty eight. I
don't think it has a lot to do with the
congressional election, and Republicans are in a better chance now
than ever to retain the House. I'm not usually a
(09:31):
very optimistic person. There's a court case going on right
now about this Article two, Section two of the Voting
Rights Act.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
We did a big discussion about that.
Speaker 5 (09:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Right, it is very looking. It's looking very likely like
the Supreme Court is going to in some way rule
in the state of a favor Louisiana. Now, does that
mean that they don't have to change the map to
create a second black district in Louisiana or are they
going to strike down Section two of the Voting Rights Act.
If they strike down Section two, it is there is
it's almost mathematically impossible for Democrats to win the House.
(10:03):
It becomes nearly impossible because what's going to happen if
that happens is every southern state in the country is
going to start redistricting like crazy. You will see Cliburn
will not have a seat in South Carolina has seat
will be your Republican seat. They'll lose the only Democrats
seat in Tennessee. They'll lose the seats in Tennessee at Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana,
(10:23):
North Carolina. They will redistrict Democrats down to basically Charlotte, Atlanta,
not even New Orleans or Memphis. I mean just the
big metropolitan areas that they can't really avoid them and
that will lose. And Democrats was a dozen seats, including Florida.
Florida's gonna start redistricting. Wie Watson Schultz is not going
to have a seat to run it. I mean leadership,
a long staying leadership. The Democratic Party will not have
(10:46):
seats anymore in Congress aside from Republican sees that they'll
lose in. So that will ultimately end the questions. I
mean at that point, between Registrict and Ohio and Texas
and all these other places, Democrats will have to win
dozens of seats. And the app isn't where it was
in twenty eighteen. It's not where it was in twenty ten.
We're not going to have wave elections where fifty sixty
seats flipped that time in our country's kind of over.
(11:09):
So if they do this, if urtic section two of
the Veteran that is struck down and Republicans start jerrymandering
as they're doing nationwide, but they do it in the South. Fundamentally,
it's going to question of how large is the Republican need.
Is another five seats is the sixties, but the chance
of Democrats winning twenty twenty five seats almost mathematically impossible.
They have to be like an Obama style landslide.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
Ryan, That's really interesting stuff. I just have to ask
about New York City. I'll always love the Big Apple.
I'm a little bit worried it's not looking great if
you wanted to avoid the communist hellscape that Mamdani may bring.
But I don't know, what if something last minute shakes
things up. What if what if Curtis Sliwa gets rid
(11:54):
of the beret? I mean, what happened.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
I don't know if the beret is what's holding up. Look,
I was with the Cuomo's advisor just the other day
and essentially what I just said to them was, listen,
you know you want Curtis lee what to drop out.
I don't think it's going to happen. I don't know
what it's going to happen. But the element that that
is so fundamental that the Cuomo campaign has always missed this.
You need Republicans to vote for you. So, yeah, it's
(12:19):
okay to trash Trump and they'll forgive you for a
lot because they know that it's New York City. But
you need to offer them something because you're the guy
who let all the criminals out of jail, You're the
guy who did the lockdowns. You're the guy who did
a lot of bad policy and said pro lifers don't
belong in the state. Give them something because they're not
going to just vote for you because if Curtis drops out.
This is delusional thinking, and I mean really, the blame
(12:42):
goes on the Cuomo campaign. Cuomo has every ability to
win this race, and it has tightened in Cueomo's favor.
He's only down about twelve or eleven points in the
polling versus like twenty something points. It is getting tighter.
It is getting closer for Cuomo. But he's got to
give Republics.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Why has he been so bad? Not to interrupt you, wrong,
but why has he been so bad at this? Why
has the Cuomo campaign been so lackluster? This guy's a
career politician, he was the governor. He should know how
to do this.
Speaker 4 (13:10):
Yeah, it kind of baffles the mind, but I mean,
this is the problem when politicians don't have to run
real races for a very very long time, Cuomo really hasn't.
Between his last name and his legacy and the money
he's had, I mean, he has never really had to
run a competitive race before. The media always defended him
he was going to be a president one day. I mean,
(13:31):
they built him out to be this legacy that I
clearly he wasn't actually that good of a politician. That's
the shocking thing. He just was in the right place
where it's easy to sit there and win victories, especially
when you have the last name that's a legacy in
a dynasty in a certain particular place. So you know,
I guess he really is not that good. I just
(13:52):
think that maybe Mario was a much better campaigner and
he just stuck around long enough.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Guys, so much of this analysis and more available you
all to listen to on the Clay and Buck Network
with It's a numbers Game, Ryan or Dusky's the host.
Co check it out, especially as we get closer to
election day. You want to just think about all the info,
all the stuff we just covered there. He'll impress everybody
at the backyard barbecue talking about all the different congressional
districts and everything else that Ryan laid out for you. Ryan,
(14:18):
always good to have you man, Thank you.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
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Speaker 6 (15:37):
You know them as conservative radio hosts, now just get
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Speaker 1 (15:41):
Guys on this Sunday Hang podcast with Clay and Fuck.
Find it in their podcast feed on the iHeartRadio app
or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back in Clay
Travis buck Sexton show. We've been talking about the crazy
Democrat governor candidate who said, hey, maybe a woman would
(16:03):
have beaten Usain Bolt if they ran in one hundred meters.
And we're going to talk with Steve Hilton about the
situation in California. He's running as the Republican gubernatorial candidate
in that state. But I wanted to play this because
I do think it's indicative of a major culture shift.
I have no idea what Kira Knightley's politics are, but
(16:23):
she is evidently involved in a new Harry Potter project
being helmed up by JK Rowling, the author of the
Harry Potter books, And she was asked by a crazy
left wing media member, what do you think about the
trans boycott of the Harry Potter series? Based on JK
Rowling's opinions on this, and I just want you to
(16:44):
listen to the answer.
Speaker 7 (16:45):
I saw your voicing professor on Bridge and the New
Harry Potter audiobooks. I was wondering, are you aware that
some fans are calling for a boycott giving jk Rowings
ongoing campaign against trans people.
Speaker 8 (16:56):
I was not aware of that to know. I'm very sorry.
Speaker 5 (17:01):
You know.
Speaker 8 (17:01):
I think we're all living in a period of time
right now. We're all going to have to figure out
how to live together, aren't we, And we've all got
very different opinions, so I hope that we can all
find respect.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
Look, that is a very middle of the road answer,
but I wish you could see the laugh. It doesn't
come across in the same way on audio as it
does on video, so I would encourage you guys check
it out. But the fact that she would just laugh
at a question like that is I think a sign
that people are over the bs, even in Hollywood and
(17:34):
even for some white actresses, because we've talked about the
fact that the most overtaken woke identity group in America
it's actually white women, and they have been the drivers
of the toxicity surrounding this in particular. You know what's
not toxic buck winners, and I've been giving people a
lot of winners for prize picks. Here you get an
(17:56):
early preview. I'm gonna give this out again tomorrow because
it's only Wednesday, but already got my picks ready. This
is easy. Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa,
and Jackson Dart all to throw more than one half
passing touchdown. These are all mores. That means they just
(18:16):
need to throw at least one passing touchdown, so you
take more than one half. Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Tua,
and Jackson Dart those are all what is that five
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(18:40):
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Speaker 3 (18:59):
All right, welcome back here too, Clay and Buck. We
will be chatting, I believe, shortly with Steve Hilton about California.
You know what, Actually I want to pull this from yesterday, guys,
grab yesterday, because I feel like Gavin Newsom is.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
Out there working on his stump speech. He's getting a
little breathier, he's button in that shirt a little lower,
slicking back that hair just a little tighter, and he's
ready to look at all the folks of America and
just tell them that, damn he's so handsome.
Speaker 5 (19:29):
You know.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
I mean, I really think that Gavin Newsom is thinking
that it's it's his nomination to lose at this point
of the Democrat side. I don't think that he is
silly or foolish in that assessment, I think we've both
said that we think it'll be Gavin Newsom.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
With AOC as the VP.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
We nail that one so far in advance, that'd be
a pretty impressive call. But we're riding on the same
train on that one. I think that's probably what It's
always tough to pick these things so far and out,
so far in advance. Whoever would have thought, for example,
that Joe Biden would even be the nominee in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
I truly clay.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
I went on a whole rant on radio when the
Democrat primary was happening, and I just said, we know
it can't be Biden. The guy's got dementia. Well, it
turns out people didn't care that much.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Not only that, you hit on something that I think
is one reason it's hard to predict the outcome, and
it didn't get a lot of attention because he ended
up not being challenged in a significant way for the nomination.
Biden flipped the order of the states when it came
to the Democrat primary contest so that South Carolina was
(20:36):
first because he knew James Cliburn and black voters were
going to have his back and that would Forestall any
significant challenge against him, because Biden never did well in
Iowa or New Hampshire. What is going to be the
first state going forward. I think that is a real
part of trying to horse race and handicap the likelihood
(20:57):
of what is going on. And I think it's one
reason why it's challenging to have a exact reason.
Speaker 5 (21:04):
Here.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
We've got Steve Hilton, by the way, I think now, Steve,
I don't know if you've seen the clip yet of
the crazy Democrat nominee, one of the people running for it,
saying that she doesn't know whether a woman could beat
Usain Bolt in one hundred meters. But I thought it
was a perfect distillation of where the California Democrat primary is.
(21:27):
They're just bonkers.
Speaker 5 (21:29):
I'm so excited to talk to you about this today
because I was actually on that interview with Piers Morgan.
I was following her up, and originally I think they
set it up as a debate, and she didn't want
to do a debate, so I was just patiently waiting
and as she was speaking, I saw myself on the
little video green Room. Wait. My jaw was dropping, and
(21:51):
I kept thinking, she's not going to say that, like, surely,
no way she's going to say gender neutral Olympics. No
way she's going to say track and field. When peers
asked her what sports biological men could compete with, and
every time you thought, no way, she's not gonna say
something so crazy, she said it. It's just incredible. But
(22:13):
exactly as you say, this is where they're at. These
California Democrats insane, the far left still in control. People
are sick of it here and that's why I'm running
for governor because we've got to have shade. We can't
go on like this with these lunatics in charge of
our beautiful state.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
What do you say, Steve, that's buck thanks for being
here with us. To whether it's Gavinusum or other Democrats
out there, they they really seem to have taken this
point of view that California is actually doing great and
that it's awesome, and that they're kicking ass and their
governance is amazing. Like they're not trying to excuse or
explain any of the shortcomings. They just say that it's
(22:52):
been fabulous. I mean, Gavin Newsom, instead of even feeling
like he has to defend anything, he just is basically
saying California is number one in all these different things
and leaves it at that.
Speaker 5 (23:05):
Yeah, well, listen, this is what ties together the Betty
You interview, the other car crash interview we saw with
Katie Porter and Gavin Newsom, all of them. This is
what you get. This is the attitude you get after
fifteen years of one party rule, This total arrogance, entitlement,
contempt for the truth, for the reality of people's lives.
(23:25):
And they just think they can get away with it
because for so long they've had applient media in California.
They're not used to being asked these kinds of questions,
and they're not used to being held accountable by a
strong opposition party. And that's why I'm really confident when
they face a candidate like me who's just not going
to let them get away with it, it's going to be
(23:45):
a very different story next year in the election. Just
specifically on the Gavin Newsome bs that he spews about
all of this, I mean, his favorite statistic, he's got
to have to slightly adjust it a little bit. He's
been saying for a while. Oh, it's everything's great, because
we have the fourth largest economy in the world. That
was true, by the way, until yesterday we dropped down
(24:06):
to fifth. But still that's good. But beneath that, you've
got a story of California as a state now where
the rich get richer and the people who own these
giant AI and tech companies are doing well. That's the
reason we have such a big economy. But at the
same time, we have the highest unemployment rate in all
of America, the worst in all fifty six. Same with poverty.
(24:27):
We have the highest poverty rate. And if you look
carefully at what he says, he's always talking about the
size of things. You know, we're biggest for this, and
we're the largest for that, But actually that's going to
be true for almost anything because we're the biggest state
with the largest population. But if you talk about the
actual performance on any metric, we are not just doing badly.
(24:47):
We're doing the worst of all fifty states. The worst
reading scores for kids in public schools, the worst, the
highest taxes, the highest cost for housing, gas, electricity, water
ensure everything edward, the worst business climate ten years in
a row. There's literally nothing they can point to as
a success, and so they've got to do these kind
of ridiculous, statistical nonsense. But everyone can see, everyone can
(25:10):
steal it. That's why you've got a large majority now
in California. You say it's time for change, and that's
why I'm confident I'm going to win next year.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
We're talking to Steve Hilton. I want to go to
the arson that we found out actually caused the LA fires.
We hear from a lot of people out there. Adam
Carolla was on with us recently. He has a house
in one of the communities that was drastically impacted. I
see these stories and I hear from people they still
(25:38):
can't get rebuilt. What are you seeing and hearing from
the people of Los Angeles responding to that wildfire crisis.
A lot of the media, the drive by media, as
Rush called them, have left and they're not covering the
failure of LA to be rebuilt. What do you see
and hear on the ground there in the aftermath of those.
Speaker 5 (25:57):
Fires, Well, it's a total disaster. That is a completely
perfect illustration of how they're running the state. So you
look at the just on the numbers. I looked them
up the other day just to get the latest. Malibu
is the most egregious in Malibu, six hundred homes destroyed.
The total number of permits issued for rebuilding two literally two.
(26:20):
If you look across the various burned neighborhood after Dina
Pacific Palisades, it's under ten percent. And the reason is
that they are. It's this terrible combination which is what's
destroying California, of far left ideology and incompetent governance and
both of those two things working together. So the ideology
(26:41):
comes in when they are now pushing this idea that
the single family home, that the foundation of the California
dream is some evil thing that needs to be fought
back and everyone needs to be living in apartments with
no parking and taking trans in the name of climate change.
(27:02):
I mean, do they live like that? The people who
push this newsom Does he live in an apartment? Does
Nancy Pelosi get her Francis go on transit? Of course not.
It's total elitism, and that's the ideology. So they want
people to move out so they can build apartments in
line with their ideology of what they call density. But
(27:22):
the second point is just the sharing competence, where months
ago said she is streamlining permitting and whatever none of
that's happened. And I talk to people who literally they
go to the building department every day. There's a different person,
there's a different rule. Nothing's been streamlined, nothing's been simplified.
They can't get insurance. The insurance people say, well, we
(27:43):
can't give you insurance. Do you get a permit. The
permit people say, you can't get a permit until you
get the insurance. It's just a nightmare for people. No
one's gripping it. No one's in charge, whether that's Newsome
or Carabath locally or Newsom at the state level. And
it's just a perfect illustration of everything that's going wrong
in California.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
Well, I have to tell you, Steve, there's somebody out
there with windswept hair and a shirt button down to
his navel who disagrees with you. We want to let
you react. Here is Gavin Newsom, his version of California.
You play thirty three.
Speaker 6 (28:17):
I think there's a California arrangement syndrome, and he's part
of it. I mean, I think people are obsessed with
focusing on what's wrong with the state and not what's
right with the state. I mean, you have more scientists engineers,
more researchers, more Nobel laureates in the state than any
other state in the nation. We're the fourth largest economy
in the world four point one trillion dollars, with the
finest system of higher education that addresses the issue of
equity better than any other public education system in the world.
(28:41):
We dominate in every category, name it with the biggest
manufacturing state, the biggest farming state, in every key category.
The quality of life here consistently, and you look at
the top ten cities in the United States of America,
consistently the top five are identified in the state of California.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
All right, so obviously preparing, I know I'm going to
give you the floor. He's preparing his stump speech there.
And I also feel like a lot of this is well,
you're also by far the biggest state, Gavin, But go ahead, Steve.
Speaker 8 (29:10):
Oh.
Speaker 5 (29:10):
I wish I was able to have a debate with him.
I wish he was running again so I could just
go for it. First of all, it's exactly what I said.
He just says, with the biggest, the largest, Yes, we
have the largest egg industry, but it's being crushed by
their policies. By Gavin Newsom's policies. We should be expanding
our farming industry. Instead, it's being destroyed because he refuses
(29:33):
to give them water because of their climate agenda, their
labor regulations makes it more and more expensive. Look at manufacturing, Yes,
which is the largest because we're the largest pretty much
in everything, because we're the biggest state with the largest population.
What's actually happening with manufacturing. You take Nvidia, the world's
most valuable company, just announced it with President Trump a
few months ago. A half trillion dollars of investment in America.
(29:57):
None of it in California. It's in Texas, it's in Arizona,
because those are places where you can actually build things
without years of bureaucratic delay in massive taxes. Everything he
says is a lie because it doesn't reflect the truth
about what it's like here, which is that we are,
on every metric that matters, the worst performing state in America,
(30:19):
and that's the direct result of his policies and his incompetence.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
You mentioned Katie Porter. We played the audio, it went megaviral.
She was at the time the favorite to be the
nominee for California Democrats next year. What was your thought
when you saw it, did it surprise you? What does
it say about Katie Porter and California Democrats?
Speaker 5 (30:43):
It did a little bit, because I've met her a
few times. Most of the polls show that, I mean,
we have this top two system in California where you
don't have a Republican and Democrat primary. Everyone's on the
same ballot and the top two go through to the
general election. For the last few months, I mean the polls,
it's pretty earlier. There's a large number of don't know,
so I'm not too kind of focused on this, but
(31:04):
they've pretty consistently showed that the top two is Katie
Porter and me, and so in once I've been paying
attention to. We see each other every now and again
at these standidate forums. Not a real debate, but you know,
she's the ineptness on display there. The fact that you
just couldn't answer a basic question and completely lost it
was really surprising to me. But again, what's interesting is
(31:27):
that the machine doesn't care. The Democrat machine arrogant, entitled,
a bunch of people who think that they've got they've
got the right to rule forever in California. How dare
you ask me questions? How dare anyone think that they're
going to interrupt our control of this state? Right back
in behind her, you had unions coming out with statements saying, yes,
(31:49):
we're we're for Katie Porter. Still we need we don't
want someone polite, we need someone who's going to fight
all this nonsense. The real interesting question, though, is that
the Democrat machine in California overall, it's still run by
Nancy Pelosi, who can't stand Katie Porter. And so even
before this meltdown, the rumor mill here was saying that
(32:10):
they are looking for another candidate because they don't want
Katie Porter, because they don't control her actually, and so
right now the speculation is that they are trying to
recruit Alex Padia. He's the US senator who made a
fool of himself barging into Christine Nomes press conference. He's
the guy that they want, and I'd say bring it on,
(32:31):
because he's just another completely a complete mediocrity, another machine
politician who'll just spout the party line controlled by the
unions and cannot possibly represent the change that we need
in California.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
Steve Hilton, if people like what they're hearing here, how
can they find out how can they get involved.
Speaker 5 (32:52):
Thank you, man, I appreciate that. Steve hiltonfogovernor dot com
f R. Look, we got to it's not just Sta
California wherever you're listening in the country. So let's go
right back to where we started with the trans athletes
and biological men and girl sports that all started here
in California. They passed that law on twenty thirteen. As governor,
I would overturn it. But it's a good example of
(33:15):
how so many of the crazy far left insanity that's
been inflicted on the rest of the country, it starts
in California. So help me beat it here. Steve hilsonfogovernor
dot com.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Good stuff, Steve, we'll talk to you again. Keep up
the good fights. We appreciate you.
Speaker 5 (33:32):
Fantastic See soon. Cheers. Guys.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
All right, you're gonna hear a lot of great things
about one of our new sponsors, Cozy Earth. But guess
what you don't have to hear from me or Buck.
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for twenty percent off everything. Keep up with the biggest
political comeback in world history on the Team forty seven podcast.
Clay and Buck highlight Trump free plays from the week
Sundays at noon Eastern. Find it on the iHeartRadio app
(35:00):
or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back in Clay,
Travis Buck Sexton Show. Okay, let me hit a bunch
of these. Your talkbacks are amazing. We have a ton
of them, and I'm going to try to get to
as many as i can. Let's go, let's see cut
ce ce David Well, he says, I'm a moron. I
(35:22):
appreciate you, David Virginia Beach. Listen, a Walt way Buck
is completely right.
Speaker 3 (35:27):
You're an abject moron if you think that's the worst
way you could die.
Speaker 1 (35:33):
All right, So my argument here of choking to death
in a restaurant.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
I'm not calling I'm not calling any names, but yes,
some of these are very funny.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
I just want to hit a bunch of them. Less
in Sacramento up at KFBK, he says he's got a
better idea about the worst way to die dd The
worst way to go.
Speaker 5 (35:51):
The absolute worst way to go be living through another
Obama administration or Harris.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
That'd be the worst way to go, because I tell
you what, Dad kill as simple as that.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
I mean, we made it through barely through old vegetable Joe.
Speaker 1 (36:06):
But I'm on now, you know, I'm in ten out
of ten. He stuck the landing. Love it very good.
These are great. Enrique in New York City wr Here's
what he had to tell us.
Speaker 9 (36:17):
Clay Travis on the fear of eating and choking to
death by yourself. I had that happen to me with
a jalapino at home. I had to give myself the
highly maneuver. I had to phone on my hand. I
was either calm nine one one or battled for my life.
I gave myself the highly maneuver that I learned when
I was a police officer in Blue Springs, Missouri, and
(36:37):
I after the third or fourth try, it finally came out.
I was bruised all over, and boy, I'm still petrified
for that memory.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
We're glad you're alive and able to listen to the show.
Maybe we need to all practice the Heimlich maneuver on ourselves.
Maybe that can help you with the Polish sausage buck.
We'll be back tomorrow.
Welcome everybody. Third hour of Clay and Buck kicks off.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Now.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Our friend Ryan Gardusky is with us.
Speaker 3 (00:06):
He has a great podcast, It's a numbers game out
of the Clay in Bucks podcast network. You're going to
impress your friends with all of the data and insights
and insidery political stuff out there. You got to check
out It's a numbers game with our friend Ryan, mister Gerdusky.
Speaker 4 (00:22):
Great to have you, Thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Let's start with this.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Are we seeing increased weakness on the Democrat side and
hopefulness for Winsome Sears and Jason Mars. I want to
focus on Virginia first. Here the Jay Jones situation coupled
with who's the guy that wrote the text about how
he wanted a Republican and his family and his kids
(00:47):
to die? And then you got that situation and then
the Spamberger running around refusing to talk about Jay Jones
and also refusing to speak clearly about the trans issue.
Is this having an impact or is it status quo
in that election which is going to be decided in
just a couple of weeks.
Speaker 4 (01:06):
So, I mean, all we have is just polling to
go on. Remember Virginia does not register voters by partying,
so we can estimate where voters are coming from, how
they voted in the last election, but that doesn't really
tell us an enormous amount of information. We just have polls.
There have been two polls. They're both from right leading
firms that examine how they look. One's from a poll
(01:27):
called Signal. They are decently active, they have a good reputation.
They have Miaras up by two points leading in and
then there's Trafalgar. Trafalgar. Now, Trafalgar has had a great
reputation till twenty twenty two, and they really went off
the rails of twenty twenty two. But last year they
were the fifth most accurate polster in America, and in
twenty twenty one they nailed the Virginia election completely right.
(01:48):
Trafalgar estimated that Niarra's went from losing by four points
to Jones to beating him by six points. And if
you can look at the Miara's campaign, they've released new
ads saying you know, I know you're going to vote
for the Democrat or governor, Please do not vote for
Jones for ag and then they have clips of the
Democratic candidate for governor saying every voter needs to make
(02:11):
their own choice, refusing to endorse him on the debate stage.
So that has that that is the message of their
commands saying, we know you're in vote for the Democrat
or governor. They expect the Democrat to win the governorship,
but make your own decision. And they have the Democrat
governor candidate's own words saying, make your own, make your
own choice. Of all the races, we're seeing a big swing,
it's that race in Virginia.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
The AG race, Ryan, I am, and this is probably
not going to surprise anybody obsessed with poly market and Calci,
because what you just mentioned is there are a lot
of polls out there. Oftentimes they have a bias one
direction or another, and as we all know, a lot
of polls are just flat out wrong. How much attention
do you pay to the prediction markets and let me
(02:53):
tell you what they are saying and see whether it
would square with what your expectations are. Gambling market, look
at them. You don't look at it all right, I'm
obsessed with.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Because they're just going off of information that we all see.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
I'm not sure that that's true, But let me give
you the data here, they say there's a ninety percent
chance that Mom Donnie wins. They say that they're then
again this is this is based on dollars, not poll numbers.
They say that there is a ninety some odd percent
chance that Spanberger wins. They say that there is an
eighty percent chance that the Democrat wins in New Jersey.
(03:29):
But to your point, Miaras is now favored in the
Virginia ag If all of that came down, what do
you think is most likely to be wrong of those
markets right now? Is there anything? Is Cuomo gonna have
a chance? Is New Jersey Virginia?
Speaker 5 (03:46):
Like?
Speaker 1 (03:46):
What could they be wrong about? Those are the prediction
markets right now.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
I mean they could be wrong without Miaras, because at
the end of the day, the question for me area
is this, how much does the Democrat win the governorship
a Virginia buy It would take an enormous amount if
she wins by double digits for him to win. Right
they want Winston Sears has to keep this race competitive
and close, which is why you've seen the Republicans dump
(04:11):
millions of dollars into the governorship race in the last
few weeks because they know if they can keep this closed,
they can win the AGC. If they give up completely,
then there's no chance that the AG can hold on
and they might lose even they might lose almost double
digits state legislative seats. So they want to keep it
close because they want the down ballot effects to the
(04:33):
Jones effect rather the j Jones controversy, to manage to
hold on Republicans and a number of key legislative seats.
And in the AG race, that's what they can get
most wrong about. The one that so she wins by
double digit j Jones is probably squeak By as well.
The other question is is that the New Jersey race,
it's been very interesting, is happening. And this is not
(04:55):
just in polling, but this is in the actual early
vote polling. Right now, Mickey Cheryl the Democrat holds a
lead by about five to six points, basically what Kamala
Harris had last time in the last race. A Quinny
pack Pole just released minutes ago, have her up by
six points to Jack Tirelli fifty to forty four. But
(05:16):
there is an enthusiasm gap that is sizeable. It's a
thirteen point enthusiasm gap by more in favor of Republicans
than Democrats. When you look at the mail in vote,
there's something very interesting happening. Remember Mickey Cheryl lost the
inner city vote in the Democratic primary by huge numbers. Black,
Hispanic Asian voters did not want her to be the nominee,
(05:39):
and she prevailed. She's a white lady from a very
wealthy part of New Jersey, very isolated. When you break
down the precinct returns from where people are returning their
ballot remember their ballots at home. I mean it's not
like they have a go somewhere to go vote. It's
been at home for weeks. There is a ten point
drop off from majority white districts to majority minority districts.
(06:01):
So districts that are over fifty percent white in New
Jersey have over thirty percent people return their ballots. When
you go to Asian districts or Black districts or spect
it's less than twenty. In some cases it's I'm average
of twenty one. That's an eleven point enthusiasm gap that
you're seeing the mail in ballots. The question you have
to ask yourself is if they are not even returning
(06:22):
the ballots when it's at their house, how enthusiastic. Were
the millions of other New Jersey Democrats where mostly minorities
in these areas are going to be to actually show
up on election day and give her, give her the
numbers that she needs to win, because if they don't
shovel on election day, she can't win. Despite having a
very large, padded lead in the mail in ballot.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Can the Republican win Ryan in your mind? I mean,
that's That's really what I wanted to ask you here.
Is Is this a close enough rice where you could
say it is realistic that we could have a Republican
governor again in New Jersey?
Speaker 5 (06:56):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (06:56):
I think I think. I don't think that when sinceers
can win in Virginia. I just think there's tuning mistakes
to be made, and she didn't run a campaign focused
on energy prices, which is key. I think Jack Ciarelli
has done everything right and he's experienced the balance when
he needed it. Quinnypiak is a left leaning Polster. They
gave him a three point bounce from their last poll.
It's tidened, for sure. There is an enthusiasm gap, and
(07:19):
there's an enthusiasm gap and registration. What I think the
I mean the common problem is is that New Jersey
still is a blue state. So the Democrats have a
lead in that, and they have an advantage in that,
and that might just be just enough in a year
where the president is a Republican because that does affect
people want to vote for the party outside of the presidency.
(07:41):
The question you the thing that differ differentially these polls.
There's been three polls re Jacarelli leading in the poll
in the election. The difference between polls that have him
leave it leading or have him tied, or have him
brother losing by four or five points is how does
he do with independence? Most of these see he is
winning the independent vote. If he wins the independent vote
(08:03):
by fifteen to twenty points, and some of these polls
have sat there and said he's leading by then he's
going to sit there and hold on to his race
and he's going to win it. And if the makeup
is changing because the electorate is more excited among the
Republican side, if he's only leading by eight points or
seven points, he's probably going to lose by not by
very much. And we'll see if he's got cotails, you know,
below him. Virginia. I think that Jason Merris can can
(08:25):
be the one winner of the night to sit there
and squeak by and have a and have a good
knight for Republicans in Virginia.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Okay, this is basically the appetizer for the mid terms.
Ryan and we started off playing Harry Enton talking about
all of the decisions that still have to be made
relating to the House. It feels like to us, and
you tell us if we're wrong, that Republicans are in
a very strong place to retain control of the Senate,
(08:52):
considering they're going to have tie break, so it would
require four lost seats, which is a steep road. What
do you see in the House, And how impactful, if
at all, is New Jersey, Virginia and the New York
City mayor's race whatever results we get in a few
weeks when it comes to what might happen a year.
Speaker 4 (09:10):
From now, I think that in New Jersey, the New
York City, the mayor's race, and the New Jersey race,
that's a bigger question towards what does twenty thirty two
look like if they're the incumbent governors, and what does
the presidential election look like in twenty twenty eight. I
don't think it has a lot to do with the
congressional election, and Republicans are in a better chance now
than ever to retain the House. I'm not usually a
(09:31):
very optimistic person. There's a court case going on right
now about this Article two, Section two of the Voting
Rights Act.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
We did a big discussion about that.
Speaker 5 (09:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Right, it is very looking. It's looking very likely like
the Supreme Court is going to in some way rule
in the state of a favor Louisiana. Now, does that
mean that they don't have to change the map to
create a second black district in Louisiana or are they
going to strike down Section two of the Voting Rights Act.
If they strike down Section two, it is there is
it's almost mathematically impossible for Democrats to win the House.
(10:03):
It becomes nearly impossible because what's going to happen if
that happens is every southern state in the country is
going to start redistricting like crazy. You will see Cliburn
will not have a seat in South Carolina has seat
will be your Republican seat. They'll lose the only Democrats
seat in Tennessee. They'll lose the seats in Tennessee at Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana,
(10:23):
North Carolina. They will redistrict Democrats down to basically Charlotte, Atlanta,
not even New Orleans or Memphis. I mean just the
big metropolitan areas that they can't really avoid them and
that will lose. And Democrats was a dozen seats, including Florida.
Florida's gonna start redistricting. Wie Watson Schultz is not going
to have a seat to run it. I mean leadership,
a long staying leadership. The Democratic Party will not have
(10:46):
seats anymore in Congress aside from Republican sees that they'll
lose in. So that will ultimately end the questions. I
mean at that point, between Registrict and Ohio and Texas
and all these other places, Democrats will have to win
dozens of seats. And the app isn't where it was
in twenty eighteen. It's not where it was in twenty ten.
We're not going to have wave elections where fifty sixty
seats flipped that time in our country's kind of over.
(11:09):
So if they do this, if urtic section two of
the Veteran that is struck down and Republicans start jerrymandering
as they're doing nationwide, but they do it in the South. Fundamentally,
it's going to question of how large is the Republican need.
Is another five seats is the sixties, but the chance
of Democrats winning twenty twenty five seats almost mathematically impossible.
They have to be like an Obama style landslide.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
Ryan, That's really interesting stuff. I just have to ask
about New York City. I'll always love the Big Apple.
I'm a little bit worried it's not looking great if
you wanted to avoid the communist hellscape that Mamdani may bring.
But I don't know, what if something last minute shakes
things up. What if what if Curtis Sliwa gets rid
(11:54):
of the beret? I mean, what happened.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
I don't know if the beret is what's holding up. Look,
I was with the Cuomo's advisor just the other day
and essentially what I just said to them was, listen,
you know you want Curtis lee what to drop out.
I don't think it's going to happen. I don't know
what it's going to happen. But the element that that
is so fundamental that the Cuomo campaign has always missed this.
You need Republicans to vote for you. So, yeah, it's
(12:19):
okay to trash Trump and they'll forgive you for a
lot because they know that it's New York City. But
you need to offer them something because you're the guy
who let all the criminals out of jail, You're the
guy who did the lockdowns. You're the guy who did
a lot of bad policy and said pro lifers don't
belong in the state. Give them something because they're not
going to just vote for you because if Curtis drops out.
This is delusional thinking, and I mean really, the blame
(12:42):
goes on the Cuomo campaign. Cuomo has every ability to
win this race, and it has tightened in Cueomo's favor.
He's only down about twelve or eleven points in the
polling versus like twenty something points. It is getting tighter.
It is getting closer for Cuomo. But he's got to
give Republics.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Why has he been so bad? Not to interrupt you, wrong,
but why has he been so bad at this? Why
has the Cuomo campaign been so lackluster? This guy's a
career politician, he was the governor. He should know how
to do this.
Speaker 4 (13:10):
Yeah, it kind of baffles the mind, but I mean,
this is the problem when politicians don't have to run
real races for a very very long time, Cuomo really hasn't.
Between his last name and his legacy and the money
he's had, I mean, he has never really had to
run a competitive race before. The media always defended him
he was going to be a president one day. I mean,
(13:31):
they built him out to be this legacy that I
clearly he wasn't actually that good of a politician. That's
the shocking thing. He just was in the right place
where it's easy to sit there and win victories, especially
when you have the last name that's a legacy in
a dynasty in a certain particular place. So you know,
I guess he really is not that good. I just
(13:52):
think that maybe Mario was a much better campaigner and
he just stuck around long enough.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Guys, so much of this analysis and more available you
all to listen to on the Clay and Buck Network
with It's a numbers Game, Ryan or Dusky's the host.
Co check it out, especially as we get closer to
election day. You want to just think about all the info,
all the stuff we just covered there. He'll impress everybody
at the backyard barbecue talking about all the different congressional
districts and everything else that Ryan laid out for you. Ryan,
(14:18):
always good to have you man, Thank you.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Look, home delivery services have changed our lives for the
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Speaker 6 (15:37):
You know them as conservative radio hosts, now just get
to know them as.
Speaker 1 (15:41):
Guys on this Sunday Hang podcast with Clay and Fuck.
Find it in their podcast feed on the iHeartRadio app
or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back in Clay
Travis buck Sexton show. We've been talking about the crazy
Democrat governor candidate who said, hey, maybe a woman would
(16:03):
have beaten Usain Bolt if they ran in one hundred meters.
And we're going to talk with Steve Hilton about the
situation in California. He's running as the Republican gubernatorial candidate
in that state. But I wanted to play this because
I do think it's indicative of a major culture shift.
I have no idea what Kira Knightley's politics are, but
(16:23):
she is evidently involved in a new Harry Potter project
being helmed up by JK Rowling, the author of the
Harry Potter books, And she was asked by a crazy
left wing media member, what do you think about the
trans boycott of the Harry Potter series? Based on JK
Rowling's opinions on this, and I just want you to
(16:44):
listen to the answer.
Speaker 7 (16:45):
I saw your voicing professor on Bridge and the New
Harry Potter audiobooks. I was wondering, are you aware that
some fans are calling for a boycott giving jk Rowings
ongoing campaign against trans people.
Speaker 8 (16:56):
I was not aware of that to know. I'm very sorry.
Speaker 5 (17:01):
You know.
Speaker 8 (17:01):
I think we're all living in a period of time
right now. We're all going to have to figure out
how to live together, aren't we, And we've all got
very different opinions, so I hope that we can all
find respect.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
Look, that is a very middle of the road answer,
but I wish you could see the laugh. It doesn't
come across in the same way on audio as it
does on video, so I would encourage you guys check
it out. But the fact that she would just laugh
at a question like that is I think a sign
that people are over the bs, even in Hollywood and
(17:34):
even for some white actresses, because we've talked about the
fact that the most overtaken woke identity group in America
it's actually white women, and they have been the drivers
of the toxicity surrounding this in particular. You know what's
not toxic buck winners, and I've been giving people a
lot of winners for prize picks. Here you get an
(17:56):
early preview. I'm gonna give this out again tomorrow because
it's only Wednesday, but already got my picks ready. This
is easy. Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Tua Tagovailoa,
and Jackson Dart all to throw more than one half
passing touchdown. These are all mores. That means they just
(18:16):
need to throw at least one passing touchdown, so you
take more than one half. Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, Tua,
and Jackson Dart those are all what is that five
NFL starters coming up starting tomorrow? If I am correct
in this and we win for a fifth time in
seven weeks, then you will all be able to celebrate
(18:40):
because we will be on fire and the If I'm
not right, you'll get fifty bucks if you go sign
up and play five dollars. If you use my name
right now, Clay Prize picks dot Com code Clay, the
price picks app code Clay. You get fifty bucks just
for signing up and playing five dollars.
Speaker 3 (18:59):
All right, welcome back here too, Clay and Buck. We
will be chatting, I believe, shortly with Steve Hilton about California.
You know what, Actually I want to pull this from yesterday, guys,
grab yesterday, because I feel like Gavin Newsom is.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
Out there working on his stump speech. He's getting a
little breathier, he's button in that shirt a little lower,
slicking back that hair just a little tighter, and he's
ready to look at all the folks of America and
just tell them that, damn he's so handsome.
Speaker 5 (19:29):
You know.
Speaker 3 (19:29):
I mean, I really think that Gavin Newsom is thinking
that it's it's his nomination to lose at this point
of the Democrat side. I don't think that he is
silly or foolish in that assessment, I think we've both
said that we think it'll be Gavin Newsom.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
With AOC as the VP.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
We nail that one so far in advance, that'd be
a pretty impressive call. But we're riding on the same
train on that one. I think that's probably what It's
always tough to pick these things so far and out,
so far in advance. Whoever would have thought, for example,
that Joe Biden would even be the nominee in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
I truly clay.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
I went on a whole rant on radio when the
Democrat primary was happening, and I just said, we know
it can't be Biden. The guy's got dementia. Well, it
turns out people didn't care that much.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Not only that, you hit on something that I think
is one reason it's hard to predict the outcome, and
it didn't get a lot of attention because he ended
up not being challenged in a significant way for the nomination.
Biden flipped the order of the states when it came
to the Democrat primary contest so that South Carolina was
(20:36):
first because he knew James Cliburn and black voters were
going to have his back and that would Forestall any
significant challenge against him, because Biden never did well in
Iowa or New Hampshire. What is going to be the
first state going forward. I think that is a real
part of trying to horse race and handicap the likelihood
(20:57):
of what is going on. And I think it's one
reason why it's challenging to have a exact reason.
Speaker 5 (21:04):
Here.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
We've got Steve Hilton, by the way, I think now, Steve,
I don't know if you've seen the clip yet of
the crazy Democrat nominee, one of the people running for it,
saying that she doesn't know whether a woman could beat
Usain Bolt in one hundred meters. But I thought it
was a perfect distillation of where the California Democrat primary is.
(21:27):
They're just bonkers.
Speaker 5 (21:29):
I'm so excited to talk to you about this today
because I was actually on that interview with Piers Morgan.
I was following her up, and originally I think they
set it up as a debate, and she didn't want
to do a debate, so I was just patiently waiting
and as she was speaking, I saw myself on the
little video green Room. Wait. My jaw was dropping, and
(21:51):
I kept thinking, she's not going to say that, like, surely,
no way she's going to say gender neutral Olympics. No
way she's going to say track and field. When peers
asked her what sports biological men could compete with, and
every time you thought, no way, she's not gonna say
something so crazy, she said it. It's just incredible. But
(22:13):
exactly as you say, this is where they're at. These
California Democrats insane, the far left still in control. People
are sick of it here and that's why I'm running
for governor because we've got to have shade. We can't
go on like this with these lunatics in charge of
our beautiful state.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
What do you say, Steve, that's buck thanks for being
here with us. To whether it's Gavinusum or other Democrats
out there, they they really seem to have taken this
point of view that California is actually doing great and
that it's awesome, and that they're kicking ass and their
governance is amazing. Like they're not trying to excuse or
explain any of the shortcomings. They just say that it's
(22:52):
been fabulous. I mean, Gavin Newsom, instead of even feeling
like he has to defend anything, he just is basically
saying California is number one in all these different things
and leaves it at that.
Speaker 5 (23:05):
Yeah, well, listen, this is what ties together the Betty
You interview, the other car crash interview we saw with
Katie Porter and Gavin Newsom, all of them. This is
what you get. This is the attitude you get after
fifteen years of one party rule, This total arrogance, entitlement,
contempt for the truth, for the reality of people's lives.
(23:25):
And they just think they can get away with it
because for so long they've had applient media in California.
They're not used to being asked these kinds of questions,
and they're not used to being held accountable by a
strong opposition party. And that's why I'm really confident when
they face a candidate like me who's just not going
to let them get away with it, it's going to be
(23:45):
a very different story next year in the election. Just
specifically on the Gavin Newsome bs that he spews about
all of this, I mean, his favorite statistic, he's got
to have to slightly adjust it a little bit. He's
been saying for a while. Oh, it's everything's great, because
we have the fourth largest economy in the world. That
was true, by the way, until yesterday we dropped down
(24:06):
to fifth. But still that's good. But beneath that, you've
got a story of California as a state now where
the rich get richer and the people who own these
giant AI and tech companies are doing well. That's the
reason we have such a big economy. But at the
same time, we have the highest unemployment rate in all
of America, the worst in all fifty six. Same with poverty.
(24:27):
We have the highest poverty rate. And if you look
carefully at what he says, he's always talking about the
size of things. You know, we're biggest for this, and
we're the largest for that, But actually that's going to
be true for almost anything because we're the biggest state
with the largest population. But if you talk about the
actual performance on any metric, we are not just doing badly.
(24:47):
We're doing the worst of all fifty states. The worst
reading scores for kids in public schools, the worst, the
highest taxes, the highest cost for housing, gas, electricity, water
ensure everything edward, the worst business climate ten years in
a row. There's literally nothing they can point to as
a success, and so they've got to do these kind
of ridiculous, statistical nonsense. But everyone can see, everyone can
(25:10):
steal it. That's why you've got a large majority now
in California. You say it's time for change, and that's
why I'm confident I'm going to win next year.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
We're talking to Steve Hilton. I want to go to
the arson that we found out actually caused the LA fires.
We hear from a lot of people out there. Adam
Carolla was on with us recently. He has a house
in one of the communities that was drastically impacted. I
see these stories and I hear from people they still
(25:38):
can't get rebuilt. What are you seeing and hearing from
the people of Los Angeles responding to that wildfire crisis.
A lot of the media, the drive by media, as
Rush called them, have left and they're not covering the
failure of LA to be rebuilt. What do you see
and hear on the ground there in the aftermath of those.
Speaker 5 (25:57):
Fires, Well, it's a total disaster. That is a completely
perfect illustration of how they're running the state. So you
look at the just on the numbers. I looked them
up the other day just to get the latest. Malibu
is the most egregious in Malibu, six hundred homes destroyed.
The total number of permits issued for rebuilding two literally two.
(26:20):
If you look across the various burned neighborhood after Dina
Pacific Palisades, it's under ten percent. And the reason is
that they are. It's this terrible combination which is what's
destroying California, of far left ideology and incompetent governance and
both of those two things working together. So the ideology
(26:41):
comes in when they are now pushing this idea that
the single family home, that the foundation of the California
dream is some evil thing that needs to be fought
back and everyone needs to be living in apartments with
no parking and taking trans in the name of climate change.
(27:02):
I mean, do they live like that? The people who
push this newsom Does he live in an apartment? Does
Nancy Pelosi get her Francis go on transit? Of course not.
It's total elitism, and that's the ideology. So they want
people to move out so they can build apartments in
line with their ideology of what they call density. But
(27:22):
the second point is just the sharing competence, where months
ago said she is streamlining permitting and whatever none of
that's happened. And I talk to people who literally they
go to the building department every day. There's a different person,
there's a different rule. Nothing's been streamlined, nothing's been simplified.
They can't get insurance. The insurance people say, well, we
(27:43):
can't give you insurance. Do you get a permit. The
permit people say, you can't get a permit until you
get the insurance. It's just a nightmare for people. No
one's gripping it. No one's in charge, whether that's Newsome
or Carabath locally or Newsom at the state level. And
it's just a perfect illustration of everything that's going wrong
in California.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
Well, I have to tell you, Steve, there's somebody out
there with windswept hair and a shirt button down to
his navel who disagrees with you. We want to let
you react. Here is Gavin Newsom, his version of California.
You play thirty three.
Speaker 6 (28:17):
I think there's a California arrangement syndrome, and he's part
of it. I mean, I think people are obsessed with
focusing on what's wrong with the state and not what's
right with the state. I mean, you have more scientists engineers,
more researchers, more Nobel laureates in the state than any
other state in the nation. We're the fourth largest economy
in the world four point one trillion dollars, with the
finest system of higher education that addresses the issue of
equity better than any other public education system in the world.
(28:41):
We dominate in every category, name it with the biggest
manufacturing state, the biggest farming state, in every key category.
The quality of life here consistently, and you look at
the top ten cities in the United States of America,
consistently the top five are identified in the state of California.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
All right, so obviously preparing, I know I'm going to
give you the floor. He's preparing his stump speech there.
And I also feel like a lot of this is well,
you're also by far the biggest state, Gavin, But go ahead, Steve.
Speaker 8 (29:10):
Oh.
Speaker 5 (29:10):
I wish I was able to have a debate with him.
I wish he was running again so I could just
go for it. First of all, it's exactly what I said.
He just says, with the biggest, the largest, Yes, we
have the largest egg industry, but it's being crushed by
their policies. By Gavin Newsom's policies. We should be expanding
our farming industry. Instead, it's being destroyed because he refuses
(29:33):
to give them water because of their climate agenda, their
labor regulations makes it more and more expensive. Look at manufacturing, Yes,
which is the largest because we're the largest pretty much
in everything, because we're the biggest state with the largest population.
What's actually happening with manufacturing. You take Nvidia, the world's
most valuable company, just announced it with President Trump a
few months ago. A half trillion dollars of investment in America.
(29:57):
None of it in California. It's in Texas, it's in Arizona,
because those are places where you can actually build things
without years of bureaucratic delay in massive taxes. Everything he
says is a lie because it doesn't reflect the truth
about what it's like here, which is that we are,
on every metric that matters, the worst performing state in America,
(30:19):
and that's the direct result of his policies and his incompetence.
Speaker 1 (30:24):
You mentioned Katie Porter. We played the audio, it went megaviral.
She was at the time the favorite to be the
nominee for California Democrats next year. What was your thought
when you saw it, did it surprise you? What does
it say about Katie Porter and California Democrats?
Speaker 5 (30:43):
It did a little bit, because I've met her a
few times. Most of the polls show that, I mean,
we have this top two system in California where you
don't have a Republican and Democrat primary. Everyone's on the
same ballot and the top two go through to the
general election. For the last few months, I mean the polls,
it's pretty earlier. There's a large number of don't know,
so I'm not too kind of focused on this, but
(31:04):
they've pretty consistently showed that the top two is Katie
Porter and me, and so in once I've been paying
attention to. We see each other every now and again
at these standidate forums. Not a real debate, but you know,
she's the ineptness on display there. The fact that you
just couldn't answer a basic question and completely lost it
was really surprising to me. But again, what's interesting is
(31:27):
that the machine doesn't care. The Democrat machine arrogant, entitled,
a bunch of people who think that they've got they've
got the right to rule forever in California. How dare
you ask me questions? How dare anyone think that they're
going to interrupt our control of this state? Right back
in behind her, you had unions coming out with statements saying, yes,
(31:49):
we're we're for Katie Porter. Still we need we don't
want someone polite, we need someone who's going to fight
all this nonsense. The real interesting question, though, is that
the Democrat machine in California overall, it's still run by
Nancy Pelosi, who can't stand Katie Porter. And so even
before this meltdown, the rumor mill here was saying that
(32:10):
they are looking for another candidate because they don't want
Katie Porter, because they don't control her actually, and so
right now the speculation is that they are trying to
recruit Alex Padia. He's the US senator who made a
fool of himself barging into Christine Nomes press conference. He's
the guy that they want, and I'd say bring it on,
(32:31):
because he's just another completely a complete mediocrity, another machine
politician who'll just spout the party line controlled by the
unions and cannot possibly represent the change that we need
in California.
Speaker 1 (32:48):
Steve Hilton, if people like what they're hearing here, how
can they find out how can they get involved.
Speaker 5 (32:52):
Thank you, man, I appreciate that. Steve hiltonfogovernor dot com
f R. Look, we got to it's not just Sta
California wherever you're listening in the country. So let's go
right back to where we started with the trans athletes
and biological men and girl sports that all started here
in California. They passed that law on twenty thirteen. As governor,
I would overturn it. But it's a good example of
(33:15):
how so many of the crazy far left insanity that's
been inflicted on the rest of the country, it starts
in California. So help me beat it here. Steve hilsonfogovernor
dot com.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Good stuff, Steve, we'll talk to you again. Keep up
the good fights. We appreciate you.
Speaker 5 (33:32):
Fantastic See soon. Cheers. Guys.
Speaker 1 (33:34):
All right, you're gonna hear a lot of great things
about one of our new sponsors, Cozy Earth. But guess
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for twenty percent off everything. Keep up with the biggest
political comeback in world history on the Team forty seven podcast.
Clay and Buck highlight Trump free plays from the week
Sundays at noon Eastern. Find it on the iHeartRadio app
(35:00):
or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back in Clay,
Travis Buck Sexton Show. Okay, let me hit a bunch
of these. Your talkbacks are amazing. We have a ton
of them, and I'm going to try to get to
as many as i can. Let's go, let's see cut
ce ce David Well, he says, I'm a moron. I
(35:22):
appreciate you, David Virginia Beach. Listen, a Walt way Buck
is completely right.
Speaker 3 (35:27):
You're an abject moron if you think that's the worst
way you could die.
Speaker 1 (35:33):
All right, So my argument here of choking to death
in a restaurant.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
I'm not calling I'm not calling any names, but yes,
some of these are very funny.
Speaker 1 (35:42):
I just want to hit a bunch of them. Less
in Sacramento up at KFBK, he says he's got a
better idea about the worst way to die dd The
worst way to go.
Speaker 5 (35:51):
The absolute worst way to go be living through another
Obama administration or Harris.
Speaker 1 (35:57):
That'd be the worst way to go, because I tell
you what, Dad kill as simple as that.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
I mean, we made it through barely through old vegetable Joe.
Speaker 1 (36:06):
But I'm on now, you know, I'm in ten out
of ten. He stuck the landing. Love it very good.
These are great. Enrique in New York City wr Here's
what he had to tell us.
Speaker 9 (36:17):
Clay Travis on the fear of eating and choking to
death by yourself. I had that happen to me with
a jalapino at home. I had to give myself the
highly maneuver. I had to phone on my hand. I
was either calm nine one one or battled for my life.
I gave myself the highly maneuver that I learned when
I was a police officer in Blue Springs, Missouri, and
(36:37):
I after the third or fourth try, it finally came out.
I was bruised all over, and boy, I'm still petrified
for that memory.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
We're glad you're alive and able to listen to the show.
Maybe we need to all practice the Heimlich maneuver on ourselves.
Maybe that can help you with the Polish sausage buck.
We'll be back tomorrow.
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