In this episode, Ryan Girdusky and Dan Turrentine dive into the numbers behind the Democratic Party’s shifting fortunes. They analyze how Donald Trump continues to shape the political landscape, why traditional Democratic leaders like Andrew Cuomo are losing ground, and how emerging socialist figures such as AOC are redefining the party’s base. The conversation explores voter demographics, strategy missteps, and why Democrats may need new ideas and leadership to stay competitive in future elections. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network = new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast, Ryan Grodski, thank
you all for being here again. We are less than
two weeks away from the election. Make a plan to vote.
Local elections matter. I guarantee you there's a local election
that you might not even know about coming up. So
figure out who's running, who you're going to support, and
get it and vote. Make your voice be heard. I
have a few stories that I want to cover today. First,
(00:26):
this story flew under the radar from the mainstream media.
I actually didn't see any almost anyone cover it, and
it's not super important, but it flies in the face
of an old narrative that is very commonly regurgitated without
any thought, without anyone even thinking about it, and that
it's slavery made America wealthy. Now, first and foremost, you
(00:48):
know everything I think. I don't think I need to
say this, but I'm going to say this. First of all,
I'm not praising or condoning or belittling experience of slavery.
You know, I wish we'd never had slaves in this country. However,
that's statement that slavery made America rich simply isn't true.
And not only did it not make America rich, but
it kept the South poor. That's according to a new
(01:11):
study from researchers from Columbia, Dartmouth, and Yale Universities. Their
names are trev Allen, Winston, Chen and Siresh and I
do I guarantee you I mispronounced the last name, but
I tried Siresh. Their study explored what the Antebellum American
economy would have looked like without slavery, it says quote.
Combining theory and data, we then quantify how dismantling the
(01:35):
institutional slavery affected the spatial economy. We find that the
economic impacts of emancipation are substantially generating welfare gains for
enslaved of roughly twelve hundred percent, while reducing welfare for
free workers byzero point seven percent and eliminating slave holder profit.
Aggregated GDP rises by nine point one percent, with a
(01:56):
contraction and agricultural productivity counteracted by an expansion of manufacturing
and services driven by an exodus of former enslaved workers
out of agriculture and into the US North. All right,
Remember that at the time of the Civil War, products
made from slaves made about twelve point six percent of
our GDP, but slaves had a lower level of productivity
(02:20):
than free men because capitalism is what drives people to
work hard. Cotton specifically, which is, you know what, we
kind of align the idea of what slaves in American
South did. Cotton specifically was only five percent of our GDP,
and according to a study from the Chicago Booth Review,
slavery distorted markets and slave workers earned about one hundred
(02:42):
dollars a year market wage, but produced only sixty dollars
net for owners due to coercion, costs, emancipations. Efficiency gains
equated to four percent on the low estimate to thirty
five percent on the high estimate of GDP. Slavery was
very expensive to own a slave. They didn't work as
hard as free people because they didn't have the drive
(03:05):
and the motivation of making more money, and agriculture was
definitely a lower level of wealth generation than manufacturing and
service industries and other things that the American North was doing.
The North was far more prosperous than the South because
they had moved away from a groaring society into an
industrialized society. The slavery slowed the South's development, making slave
(03:28):
states poor per capita, then free states by eighteen sixty.
The left says that slavery made America rich. No capitalism
made America rige a Protestant work ethic made America rich.
Property rights made America rich. I think that the fact
that these Ivy League universities are willing to put up
this study. I don't think they would have put this
(03:50):
study necessarily in twenty twenty, but they were willing to
put up the study. Something that you're not going to
hear from a lot of other podcasts and a lot
of other media outlets really lies in the face of
the left's narrative. Slavery didn't make America rich, and in fact,
it made the South poor. I just think that's interesting.
You know, I don't talk a lot about history on
(04:10):
this podcast, but I found that site very, very fascinating.
I put it in my substack on the National Populist
newsletter from last week, but I thought I had to
share with you guys. Okay, let's talk about the upcoming elections.
They're coming up close. I know that I've made this
a big election podcast, talking about it almost every episode,
but you know, this is what this is, what the
news are, This is what's going to also forecast how
(04:33):
people perceive the midterms, people perceive the strength and weakness
of President Trump and his coalition. There have been a
flurry of polls in Virginia, especially focused on the Attorney
General's race. Since October eighth, there have been eight polls
on the Virginia AG race, and Republican Jason Miarez is
beating Democrat Jay Jones in six of the eight polls.
(04:55):
The outlier are an internal poll from the Democratic Attorney
General's Associate which has Mira's and Jones tide, and then
a poll from a young guy named Chaz Nutty Comb
who follows a lot of Virginia politics. Very smart, but
he's more liberal than he cares to admit. He has
Jones winning by five points. Now, I want to be
fair and state that a lot of the other polls
that have miaras Republican winning are also from Republican life firms.
(05:19):
Not all of them, but quite a few. When you
aggregate all the polls together those eight poles, the race
is still tight, but Miara's leads Jones forty seven to
forty five points. Frankly, for a guy who texted that
he dreamed of murdering his political opponents and seeing their
children die. I think that's too close for comfort, but
it is the state of the country today. A big
(05:41):
question is how well does Lieutenant Governor win some seers
the Republican perform if she has a tremendous loss, right
she's a team point loss, which is what the Chaz
Nutty Comb Pole says, It's going to be hard for Miaras,
like he's got to really have a lot of people
willing to cast a ballot when they're going to vote
for the Democrat, or willing to just skip the line
(06:03):
overall after voting for Winsam, after voting for Abigail Spamberger,
the Democrat. That's that's asking for a lot. When you
aggregate all the polls together, Spamberger has an eight point lead,
fifty one to forty three. That's the most really that
I think Miaras can afford her to lose by a
(06:24):
lot of It matters at the top of the ticket
as far as making sure Republicans have a strong turnout
in it. You know, Winsim's hears has a lot of
weight to carry. Anyone running at the top of the
ticket has a lot of weight to carry for the
rest of the party. It's concerning the race for lieutenant governor,
which is not really being paid attention to. It's very close.
(06:44):
It's much closer than the race for governor. Overall. Republican
John Reid is down by just five points against the
Democrat Gazala Hashmi forty eight to forty three in those polls,
but that's much closer than the other polls. He's doing
decently well. It's a race that literally no one is
paying attention to. Over in New Jersey. Only one new
poll has come out recently and it showed Democrat Mikey
(07:06):
Cheryl ahead by five points and was conducted by Rutgers University.
The last time the university did the poll, it was
a much larger lead for the Democrats. So once again,
momentum and the momentum has always gone to Jack Chitdarelli,
the Republican. I mean he really has. He's earned Democrat endorsements,
he has earned Union endorsements. He's been campaigning all over
(07:28):
the state. Kelsey Grammar just cut an ad for him,
and Republicans have been ahead of Democrats are returning their
mail in Ballid much longer than they were in twenty
twenty four, twenty twenty one rather and he earned a
huge endorsement from the Orthodox Jewish community that endorsed Governor
Phil Murphy last time, and the twenty twenty one race
(07:49):
when Chitarelly was running last time, So he has had
a lot of things break in his favor. It's just
the fundamentals of the state, even if the state is
moving to the right. Mikey Cheryl goes into this election
with eight hundred and fifty four thousand more registered Democrats
than Chittarelli has Republicans, and she's been running a lackluster
(08:10):
campaign across the board, but that may be enough to
save her. It may just be that the state is
still blue enough, although it's not as blue as it
used to be, that you know, it's enough. And also
a lot of the people who voted for Trump for
the first time last time, in places like Passaic County,
they're not guaranteed voters. They're lower propensity voters, so they
(08:33):
have to show up, which is a big gamble. Who knows.
It's interesting that most Democrats from Gavin Newsom in California,
who's trying to redraw the districts of his state to
Mikey Cheryl in New Jersey, to even Jay Jones, who
is running for Attorney General of Virginia. They've made this
election about one thing more than anything else, and that
is Donald Trump. Even California State Senator Scott Wiener, he's
(08:57):
primary Nancy Pelosi for the seat in San Francisco, his
opening announcement is all about Donald Trump. Trump's Trump is
the whole show for the Democrats running for office this year.
And we are, you know, wear a decade into Trump's
political career, and it's a decade where the walls have
closed on him more times than I can count, yet
(09:20):
he persists, you know. And Democrats, who have an abundance
of young talent, they have the trust of the American
people on issues like healthcare and abortion, they can't seem
to talk about really anything else besides the President. And
this is of interest to me and slightly of concern.
Where is the party going? Selena Lake, a veteran Democratic
(09:41):
post told The New York Times over the weekend that
she fears that Trump is like crack cocaine for their
party and that they can't get enough. And if you
watched the No Kings protest, you saw the people that
were overwhelmingly in that crowd. In those crowds, they were
much older. Even I think NBC News, the local Boston affiliate,
(10:04):
was commenting about how old a crowd was. This is
MSNBC watchers, this is CNN watchers. These are people who
have a paranoid fear of Trump being a dictator and
ending democracy, and they're the ones who vote very very frequently.
But we are at a place now where Donald Trump's
political career, whether you love him or hate him, is
(10:27):
more behind us than it is in front of us.
And we're going to wake up in twenty twenty six
and find the Democrats twenty six, twenty twenty eight. Rather,
we're going to find the Democratic Party in a much
different place than when it started in twenty fifteen, because
as much as Trump has defined the Republican Party, resisting
(10:47):
Trump has defined the Democratic Party, and they haven't done
a good job at establishing new talent that can run
on a national level since Obama, I mean there is
since he said, you know, there's no red state America
or bluesid America, that iconic Obama speech, there is, you know,
the Democratic Party nominated Hillary in twenty sixteen nominated Biden
(11:08):
in twenty twenty and Biden twenty twenty four slash Kamwa
Harris without a primary. That's a very long time of
new talent and Obama by the in twenty twelve there
was no primary. There hasn't been a time in Democratic
politics for new talent to really see that they could
rise to the top. You know, really in two decades,
(11:30):
you could argue in twenty twenty there was a lot
of people like Pete pouda judge who made an attempt
to do it.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Well.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
I mean, I don't know if any of those people
really have a career going forward. But it's been two
decades since like a thoughtful, ambitious and multi level fielded
race took place, and a lot of leaders of the
Democratic Party are either old news, they're Octagerians like Bernie Sanders,
or there to you know, Zora Mandani left. And it
(12:00):
begs the question of who will lead the party when
the conversation is no longer about Trump and what will
the party talk about? Who will the party speak to?
Is it just going to be those voters of the
No King rally, Because those voters are not representative of
the American people as a whole. So where is the
Democratic Party and who is going to lead it without Trump?
What are they going to talk about without Trump? That's
(12:23):
coming up next. My guest in today's episode is my
favorite host on Two Way, Dan Turtin, host the Morning
Meeting and the Group Chat. He's a veteran Democrat politico. Dan,
thank you for being here. Roan, Thank you so much
for having me. It's great to be honest. You're you're
my favorite host because you show up, you look the part,
you want the job, like you're there every day. You know,
(12:44):
Shawn's got the sun in his face. He just like Markle.
He came from golfing. You don't know, like Shawn's like
walking half the time. You're actually fully there. And I'm like,
Dan is the man who show up for work. And
I always appreciate that.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Thank you. I try Dan.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
So Democrats are looking pretty good ahead of the upcoming
elections in two weeks that are likely to retain the
New York mayor's race, redraw the map in California, pick
up the governor's election in Virginia by a pretty good margin,
and then they have a healthy but not outstanding lead
in the New Jersey governor's race, and yet at the
same time in The New York Times wrote about this,
(13:21):
the main focus for all these positives is Donald Trump.
How much has Donald Trump as much as to find
the republic Party, how much has he defined the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
One hundred percent for the last ten years. I mean,
go back to Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen, at the
end of that election, when she really was just trying
to disqualify him as much as she was trying to
pump herself up. And ever since then, the focus has
been on this kind of idea that it's a fever
dream that if we just scream hard enough, find the
(13:52):
next indictment, the next wrongdoing, the next inappropriate comment or
you know, meme on X, that the voters will say,
my gosh, we made such a horrendous mistake. We can't
believe we did this. Even the No King's rally, it
is still to this day, this idea of an obsession
with the man, his character, his conduct. What has just
(14:15):
never happened really and still, you know, much to my
frustration and others, the party really has never stepped back
and said, why is he so popular, why has he won?
Why is it Ryan In my lifetime and I love politics.
You can see the books behind me. I don't think
any politician that I know of has started a movement
(14:36):
and ten years on been more powerful with the movement,
the size of the movement than when it started. Usually,
like Obama in O eight, you know, after a year
or less of governing, it gets messy, it starts to
you know, kind of come apart at the seams. Why
why is he so successful? And that just you know,
instead it's just be a little louder and a little
(14:58):
harsher and a little nastier and all will end.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
Yeah. And it's also the fact is the No King's rally.
I mean it wasn't all old people, but it was
a lot of senior citizens at this rally. And it's
a lot of people who have almost a generational psychosis
from watching MSNBC and CNN NonStop, who have been told
this is a dictator, this is Hitler, this man's evil, YadA, YadA, YadA.
And the the tragic part for the Democratic Party is
(15:23):
that on several it's not not every issue, but on
a bunch of issues, they are way more trusted than Republicans. Healthcare, abortion,
you know a number of things like that, and it's
kind of all gone by the wayside. Is anyone is
there any like thought leader within the Democratic Party who's
really got their finger on the pulse of new ideas
(15:45):
and policies that are going to be you know, advantageous
for the average working class American.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
You know that The sad thing is there are there
are factions within the House, in the Senate, there are
people thinking about running for twenty twenty eight. The problem
is there is still this fear of both being canceled
on social issues and offending the base on the kind
of broader substantive issues. And the ultimate example, Ryan is crime. Right,
(16:12):
when Trump sent in the National Guard, the first response was, well,
crime isn't that bad, which was insanity to try to,
you know, argue that away. What Trump proposed is a
short term solution, right. The National Guard cannot stay everywhere forever.
At some point you have to kind of manage your
own house. Rather than saying, okay, we're going to challenge you. Now,
(16:37):
how about another one hundred thousand new police officers nationwide?
How about you know, pumping up the budgets and let's
redo bail laws, which, by the way, you know, we're
still paying the price for but they just said, no,
there's no problem, No, there's nothing to see, Like we
just abdicated the playing field and something is preferred to nothing.
And I think that is where Trump so often not
(17:00):
only is he on the right side of issues, but
even where people kind of squirm at his tactics and
you know, kind of he goes pullt throttle. It's like
he's doing something on immigration, he's doing something on crime,
he's doing something on free trade, he's doing something to
try to end the war in Ukraine. And all we
do is sit there and attack the man and the
process and wave it away. And voters say, I won't
(17:23):
even listen to anything you have to say anymore. Yeah,
and you saw I don't know if you saw it,
but there was. There's a cant running for US Senate
in Michigan named Haley Stevens.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Oh yeah, wow. She wrote an article I think two
years ago saying send in the National Guard to the
cities and her having to try to back she's running
one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen politics. She
did an event recently, I think two people showed up
and one was her tracker. So I mean that's I've
been on Pond, I've been on a lot of campaign
events which are rough. That is rough, but yeah, so
(17:54):
like who would you say are like thought leaders that
you are? Like, Okay, this person's having interesting conversation on tech,
which is you know, the huge part of our futures. AI,
it's like complete, we're sleeping on it, you know what
I mean? Or like other things that I have, Who
are some people you could point to say this is
a person who's having a thoughtful conversation whose name does
not rhyme with Bernie Sanders.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Yeah, well, I was just gonna say, first off, the
thought leadership energy is with the Bernie Sanders, AOC wing
and Mandani, which is a problem. I think. Well, I'm
sure we'll get to at some point here. The wonder why,
I think not only is putting the thought into but
it's beginning to actually publicly start getting into this is
ram a manual. I think Rom. You know, he's got
his words, he's got his problems within the party in
(18:36):
different factions, but Ram is beginning to go out there
and listen to people understand their frustrations. He's written a
little bit about kind of on cultural issues where we
were wrong, he said it. Now he you know the
fact that he has to then self deprecating these day,
I'm going to go into the witness protection program, tells
you where you know, he knows he's in. He's in
(18:57):
the deep end of the pool. But ram is I
actually think people like Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro are
doing it, or they're going to do it with a show,
not kind of tell, meaning they're gonna say, look at
what I've done in our states, right, I worked with
Trump to protect the Great Lakes. Or Shapiro, Hey, look,
(19:18):
I got a bunch of Republicans to vote for me
because I don't criticize them. I'm willing to work with
them and say where they're right. So there are, but
generally speaking, a lot of people are very very cautious
because they look around and you got people like JB.
Pritzker and others who are saying, we have nothing to
apologize for. Right again, we need to be louder, we
(19:39):
need to be more direct, right and just go right
at Trump and I to me, I believe that what
all it will ultimately is it has been for ten years,
is a losing proposition.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
You know, what's so funny is because I still consult
on campaigns. I'm doing a statewide race right now, and
I've done I don't know a million at this point.
And like I've told people, uh, you know, I even
told JD when we when right before I started working
on the super bac for his Senate race. Like the
lesson to take away from Trump from his twenty sixteen
campaign is not to be you know, boisterous on social
(20:16):
media for lack of a better word, but to challenge
party orthodoxy when it's unpopular. Like Trump on abortion, Trump
on Medicare, Medicaid, social Security. He basically took the entire
Paul Ryan platform and smashed it into little bits because
no one, no one liked it. No, and Nolan, I
didn't vote for Mitt Romney because Paul Ryan was on
the ticket. I thought that he was like a joke.
(20:38):
Like there is there is unpopular no, no, not that
everything Trump says is popular, but there's really unpopular rigid
ideology parts of both parties, Tickets and the Democrats, you know,
even like on the trans issue, which is not the
most important issue, as whin some series is going to
(20:58):
experience in two weeks. It is it is very much
an eighty twenty issue that they are still not knowing
what to sit there and say. It reminds you in
twenty sixteen of when I forget who was running. Some
woman was running for president and the Republican ticket, the
woman from California, and they ask for a gay Marriager.
She's like, I'm for civil unions. I'm like, you are
(21:19):
a decade behind where the conversation's going, Harley, Harley, because
you're so nervous that you like you are not willing
to just go out there and go where the public is.
And I feel like Democrats like that were a lot
of things. Crime, immigration, YadA YadA, yeah, the trans stuff.
What do you think?
Speaker 2 (21:37):
Yeah, I mean, winning candidates for president usually have as
a part of their opening message, here's where my party's wrong. Right.
So Bill Clinton challenging the party on ironically crime, on trade,
right on the economy. Donald Trump challenged it on immigration.
At the time, right the Wall Street Journal, everyone Marco
(21:58):
Rubio was all about, you know, the pathway to citizenship.
He said, here's where you're wrong on free trade, the
forever Wars. I remember when Trump went into South Carolina
and said the Iraq war was stupid and everyone was like, ah,
that's it. He's going down, and you know, vote our party.
There's two things we don't have other than maybe healthcare
(22:20):
and abortion, any eighty twenty issues that are on our
side where we say we you know, the public is
with us. Republicans are really on a back foot and
are back pedaling. Where has our challenging the status quo?
I know people are talking about education. Maybe Okay, I'm curious.
It's a complicated issue. It's a big issue, like what
(22:41):
facet are you going to pick? But I agree with you,
the party has got to pick some issues and disrupt
right now because we're so against Trump, Ryan, we have
become an issue after issue defending the status quo, the
issue and the process. Right, Hey, you can't do this,
you can't can change this. Things aren't that bad on
(23:03):
issue after she was kind of what the party argues.
When worldwide the public watch change, they're not I mean
Mandani personifies that right in our party now, we want change,
primaries of older candidates, we want change, blowing up the filipbuster,
changing rules. The base wants change, as is the Republican Party.
(23:23):
It's just because they're so afraid of our base. No
one is willing to get out there and lead. And
I always say this, Trump's secret sauce is substance. As
you say, he challenged the status quo unapologetically and with
full force. And that's ultimately what made people say I'm
gonna go wait in line for the guy for you know,
ten hours in the rain in you know, the Berkshooters
(23:44):
in twenty fifteen.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Yeah, you know, it's so crazy. I keep telling the Republicans, like, guys,
electricity prices are the new papist issue. Talk about data centers.
It's so important. They're just missing the vote. Can we
just talk about Cuoma for a second. Sure, he's always
a terrible candidate, and we just didn't notice because he
was always He was anointed into his ag seed and
(24:07):
then anointed into the governor's mansion and was in the blue,
super blue state, and only Cynthia Nixon challenged him, and
she didn't. She she had a great campaign, ads, but
she was an insufferable personality. So like is was he
always just bad? Or did he just doesn't doesn't? Or
was he expect to be anointed again?
Speaker 2 (24:24):
You know? So funny you say this because I asked
something very similar in that I watched as part of
my job, the entire debate the other night, and I
could not believe how terrible Andrew Coma was.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Horrible.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Uh uh. You know what what I know or knew
of Andrew Cmo was this feared politician who carries brass knuckles,
you know, destroys his opponent, is ruthless, wins it all.
Coust is known to be very you know, quick on
his feet and good with a quip. And I saw
a guy that was rambling, rigid, you know, had the
(24:58):
fact that Mandannie had all these slick answers and retorts,
and Cuomo walked into you know, set attacks like against himself.
You know, when he tried.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
To use he could answer on COVID no.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
And look he was attacked once again on visiting a mosque,
which was a huge thing back in his primary and
he still had not rectified it. And you know, you
had no to know what was coming. What happened was
and I was asked this earlier today, how come how
do we get to having Mandanni and Cuomo to choose?
And obviously Curtis Leewa, you go back a year and Cuomo,
(25:34):
led by about thirty to forty points, and most Democrats said, Okay,
I'm not running into that buzzsaul I actually had a
candidate reach out to me and asked to me. We
sat down on a Saturday for about two hours, and
he wanted to talk about running and what did I think,
et cetera. And one of my first questions was, are
(25:54):
you willing to take on Andrew Cuomo? Right, he's going
to do whatever he has to do it. If you rise,
if you're successful, that's good. The bad news is you're
on his radar and here comes the heat seeking missiles.
He ran everybody out, but you know that he won
the war before a shot was fired. People just didn't
realize how terrible he was going to be actually running
for mayor on this kind of rose garden strategy. I
(26:17):
don't really talk to the press, have like, you know,
three or four things, crime and education, and Mandonnie just
had a finger on the pulse and went out and hustled.
If people knew that the front runner was going to
be a thirty three year old socialist, you I mean
the number of people who would have run members of Congress,
you know, wealthy people, business people, but you know, it's
(26:40):
like in ninety two, the number of Democrats who are like,
the gonna be Bill Clinton. I want to run.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
No, it's so you know, a former New York Yankee
from like the Dynasty or reached out to me about
running as a Republican, and I just said, listen, Curtis
has been hitting the pavement for seven for five straight
years now, like it's gonna be tough. And then and
then if you beat him, you got Andrew Kuama and
he's just going to be our next mayor. I don't like,
I don't know how to tell you. I discoverage person
running him like Cuomo was going to be impossible to beat.
(27:06):
I mean, and I am dumbfounded, just dumbfounded, how like
you know you could. I do not like how we
handle COVID at all. And he did things that were
I think vindictive towards the end about keeping things closer
too long. However, I'm a New York resident. Went it happened,
and people looked for leadership, and the whole country looked
(27:27):
at him, and he took a lot of words from Fauci,
and he he stood in a time of crisis, and
right or wrong, he could sit there and say I
was a leader when the country needed me, and I
made mistakes, but I did the best I could. And
he couldn't answer that I was. I could write a
better answer, and I disagree with you, And like, I
can't believe how little energy there is. It's this strange
(27:49):
dichotomy you're seeing in the Democratic Party as a whole,
and it's nationwide. It's Abigail Spemberger in Virginia and Mikey
Cheryl in New Jersey. They represent a lot of what
Democrats traditionally went on right, upper middle class to wealthy
women who uh, even though they're of the left, they
appear something that moderates can you know, like and take
(28:11):
and look responsible and sound smart.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
And then you have Zoron and military service with both
of them right right now.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
There's they're there, if credentials behind them, they've got money
behind them. There's everything they If you said to me,
draw a picture of what a Democrat would want to
run with, I would draw Abigail spambo because like it
is what they would like it. It's like looking at
a young Hillary Clinton to a certain degree that yeah,
I mean she is, yeah, that's clearly going to run
(28:40):
for president. One day, and I mean, you can tell,
you could see the entire arc right there. Uh. The
thing about that it's interesting, though, is is that towards
the end of the campaign, Spamberger is doing fine, but
she's not as strong as she was a couple of
months ago. Agree and Mikey Cheryl has struggle throughout the
whole campaign, Like she still has not gotten minorities to
(29:05):
vote for her. Their vote their return on the mail
ballads is ten percent lower than whites. She lost the
Jewish support that was the for Governor Murphy she's had.
She's She's also a number of Democratic defections in Hudson County,
which is a very Democratic county that were supporting shit
Arelly Zoran at the same time, is only gaining ground
as time has gone on. And I talked to a
(29:27):
Democratic consultant on this podcast a cop months ago, and
he said to me, it's not a question of if
a socialist will be the Democratic nominee for president, It's
just a question of when do you come to that
same opinion for president. You're saying for president Dominie for president.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
Yeah, I think it is likely yes, in the short run.
And I think the ultimate example of this is AOC,
because I don't see how she does not run. Mark
Cokwper and I go back and forth back this, He's like,
no way, no, she's not. You're not a top tier cannon.
And I'm like, she's got the energy, she's of the
(30:05):
of the base. She's the intellectual kind of heart of
the base. Right now, she's gonna have no problem raising money.
So I think when you look at someone like Mandani,
you look at someone like AOC. You know, Bernie Sanders
being another example. They're getting closer, right like Sandersen, you know,
almost got it in sixteen, less so in twenty. But
(30:29):
right now, if I had to bet AOC would start
with twenty five percent of the vote, I mean she
and Gavin Newsom will be the two front runners. You
have a debate. My bet is she knocks him out
more than he you know that more likely than he
would knock her out because she's got the substance and
she's got the energy of the base behind her. So
(30:51):
I don't know. Historically we back, you know, we flirt,
but then we kind of sober up right before you know,
wedding day, Howard Dean you know, didn't didn't ultimately get there.
The same thing with Sanders in sixteen Sanders and Warren
in twenty. We just don't have a history of ultimately
going through. But kind of like Republicans, you do, you
don't until you do right, and then all of a
(31:13):
sudden you get Trump and like there it is. So
it is possible. And look, I think some of these
inner primary battles for the House, you're gonna see more
Socialists after Mandonnie likely wins. I'm gonna be curious about Jefferies.
The rumor here in New York is he is going
to endorse Mandannie probably Friday, probably Friday afternoon, late.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Lately, but he Mandonnie didn't, is not endorsing Hokeel No.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
And the word is that mcdonnie's looking for someone to primary.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Yeah there's that gay black councilman from andre Choi or
something like that.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
Yeah. So, I mean, I we need to have this.
Like as much as it's painful for me and as
much as I roll my eyes at you know, parts
of our party. We need this fight. We need to
have primaries, we need to have debates and let everybody
go at each other. I think we may ultimately the
socialists may win. I think in the long run they'll lose,
(32:10):
but we need to stop putting a lid on it
and saying we can't do this.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
Now, there is this guy, and I'm looking for his name,
and of course just loot of this question. Now I'm
blanking in his name. He's an Indian gentleman. He was
the thought leader really behind AOC and he is running
against Nancy Pelosi.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
Oh yeah, yeah, I know here.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
Yeah, he was the cheap of staff and he was
the one he was the thought leader behind the Green
New Deal. I mean, he really thought of it and
gave it to AOC and she ran with it. I'm
gonna remember it ten minutes after we stopped talking his name.
But anyway, do you think AOC endorses against Nancy Pelosi
endorses are former chief of staff.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
I think she'll wait to see if Pelosi, you know,
announces she's gonna step down. That the word is here
that she's going to do it right after the election.
Someone I know close to her said, when she leaves,
she's going to go, meaning she'll announce on like Monday
that I'm out on Friday. She's not gonna say what
she say. Yeah, yeah, she's not gonna say I'm going
to serve out the rest of this Congress, and and
(33:16):
and and go out. So I don't know. I think
it'll be a free for all. Reports are she wants
to She's leaning towards this. I think it's a Korean
American woman in San Francisco who's a city council woman.
Speaker 1 (33:27):
Is kind of daughter wants to run.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
Yeah, well that's always been out there that that she does.
But but this council woman, apparently is is who she
may favor. It's going to be really interesting to see
because AOC I think does face this, this this fork
in the road, which is she has in the last
few years become more of an inside baseball player. She's
kept her mouth kind of quiet about certain things where
(33:51):
you know, she defended Joe Biden really to the end,
which is something people don't talk much about. She was
very royal. I think that was a sign to the
to the party. I say this because does she want
to be Ted Kennedy, meaning a member of the House
or the Senate, you know, leadership for forty years and
try to have all this legislation that kind of bends
the artic on various issues, or does she say, sitting
(34:15):
around here is a waste of my time. I'm going
to go this is my shot. Who knows in five years,
if I still have the energy in the base and everything,
I'm going for president. And if I don't, I'm going
to go get a contract on MSNBC and you know,
be a pundit.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
Well, she's also a woman of a particular age, where
like if she wants have children, the window is shutting
on it. She wants there's a personal aspect to all
these politicians of like do I want to have some
I mean, politics is a drug you don't want to
ever stop. And once it's there, there's nothing like a
campaign night, even though you know there's no adrenaline rush
I've ever experienced like a great day night. But you
(34:51):
know there's that aspect of like this is just she
don't want to have kids? Is she want to have
a normal family in any capacity? My last question because
I know I'm trying to keep you over so like
the and in the last election, Democrats have really done
very well with older voters. Older voters of when Bush
was running, those voters have passed away most of them.
And then the I always say Archie Bunker's dead. But
(35:11):
meet head as a senior citizen. Now that's that's older
voters now, like they've changed, great analogy. Yeah so, but
they struggle with lower pensity voters, minority men, people that
are were would would nationally be part of the Obama coalition.
Has anyone worked directify that that you sing for.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
Some people that think the Obama coalition can be put
back together. Most people I talk to think we need
a new coalition, and and that that that I mean,
you just take those tenants right. Trump won young voters.
We're struggling not only with black young men, Latinos, we've
lost them just in general. Here, what is the new coalition?
(35:49):
We've really become white collar services in the urban centers
in kind of those tight suburban collars around a lot
of areas. Is our base. And how do weind of
expand into other areas because on a macro level, Trump
is making further inroads into blue areas and we're getting
further and further away from.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
Red areas, and so Swing County one does yeah, I mean.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
Trying to put the Obama coalition back together. I just don't.
I think the Obama coalition contributed to our erosion with
the white working class. It it started, you know before,
but this focus on young people, minorities and then liberals
right the kind of wealthier people, that gap in between
(36:33):
was not really sustainable without an incredibly talented, unique person
like black Obama was. But even in twenty twelve, as
you know, he ground that thing out. I mean, there
was no hope and joy if those margins got much
much smaller, like the trend lines were already beginning to
move against him. And so I think we need a
(36:54):
new coalition. And of course part of this is does
the Trump coalition hold, you know, going forward for Jdvans
or whomever, or do some of these voters come back
up for grabs.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
Yeah. No, that's a great question, and it's something that
I think a lot of Republicans are looking at in
the midterms because they're drawing maps right now that are
dependent on a Trump coalition that if it, if it
flares out in any capacity, they might be they might
have drawn themselves into a dummy mander.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
Yeah, it's possible, particularly in Texas.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
Yeah, yeah, where can people go to read more? Yourseff,
I could talk to you all day long, and I don't.
Speaker 2 (37:28):
Wan't happy to do it.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
I know where can people go to read you more?
I love you? On two Ways so you can give
any of your plugs of social media to follow up.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
Yeah, no, two Way would be the best place. We
are the Morning Meeting, which we are alive from nine
to ten am Eastern Monday through Friday. You can also
it's streams so you can catch it, you know, whenever
is convenient for you. And then I do something called
the Group Chat on Thursdays at four o'clock live again,
also on two Way, also streams so you can watch
that too. Those are the two primary places. And then
(37:58):
when given an invitation like you gave me, I'm always
always loved to talk about this.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
I could do it answering my DM my anonymous dam
on Twitter.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
Thank you not anonymous?
Speaker 1 (38:07):
What anonymous night unsolicited? Unsolicited? Yeah, thank you so much
for being here.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Thanks Ryan, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
Hey, we'll be right back after this. Okay, Now it's
time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show.
You guys love this. I love this. If you want
to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email
me Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at
numbers Plural numbers Game podcast dot com. I read every
email and respond to every email. The first question comes
(38:37):
from Russell King. He asks, he asked many many questions,
So Russell, I'm going to get to the top three
very quickly. He says, is DEI dead on arrival starting
in twenty twenty four? I think he meant twenty twenty five.
But it has a lost cultural power and has it
lost corporate power. DEI is not dead, but it's definitely very,
(38:57):
very wounded, if not slowly dying. There are two main
factors considered. First, it's institutional practice itself of hiring and
promoting individuals based almost exclusively on racial or other potential
relevant identity markers like being gay or trans or a woman.
Then there's the other part of a broader cultural influence
that policies like this generate parts of the American culture
(39:20):
have been influenced by modern liberal politics. For sometime years ago,
there was this reference to a to this is like
political correctness, and then social justice, and then it was
like wokeness. But using woke is now a descriptor of
fading popularity. Right if you're like no one says that
they're woke, and it's a good thing. Woke is typically
(39:40):
looked down upon, and a lot of corporations understand this
and have moved away from a lot of woke stuff. Specifically,
policies like DEI remain in the headlines, but among the
general population they're definitely lower. Electing Donald Trump was a
big part of that. Should a broader cultural backlash against
corporate or a corporate behavior like this, and also like
(40:02):
a lot of other policies, a lot of democratic policies
that they championed. Trump had also on an executive order
that changeless Executive Order fourteen fifteen one one four one
five to one that brought the termination of all activities
relating to diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility by federal departments. Remember,
there is nothing more lucrative on this planet than either
(40:24):
a state or federal contract. So the promotion of ending
DEI policies in federal contracting and in state contracting, and
some states have done this, not all and not enough
also was a use and a good reason to sit
there and for corporations to drop it because they want
a federal contract. It's guaranteed check year in and year out,
(40:45):
month in and month out. So I think it's definitely wounded.
And I think one of the telltale signs that you
could sit there and see is that companies are hiring
white men for their corporate boards at the fastest rate
in years. That wouldn't happen if DEI was surging, and
if it was not, you know, in the throes of
a very very painful exit. We'll see if things change
(41:08):
if in three years a time. But Trump's only one
term into his year, so there's three more year of
this practice. I would doubt to see it increases over
the next three years. Next question comes from Jason, who
asks if Mandani can win the New York mail race
in the first round of ranked choice voting. Thankfully, Jason
that unlike Maine in Alaska, New York City does not
have ranked choice voting in the general election, so it's
(41:29):
whoever gets a plurality. So if he gets forty percent
and the next person is thirty nine percent, he still wins.
They don't have to go to rank choice voting. I'm
sure that Cuomo would have loved ranked choice voting in
a general election and hate it in a primary. It
would have benefited him, but there is none in the
general so Mandonnie just needs to get the most raw
votes on election day and he's the next mayor. Last
(41:51):
question comes from Patrick. He writes, Hey, Ryan, what is
your most controversial true crime hot take? Also thoughts on
the new Edge Gain show and the rest of the
Ryan Murphy Monster series. Dahmer Menendez Brothers. Season four is
reported about Lizzie Borden. What true crime story would you
like to see portrayed in season five? O hot take
(42:11):
is I'm going to say the hot take on the
way that the media covers true crime. I think that
one because consumers of true crime tend to are a
lot of gen xers, a lot of baby boomers. I
think we overly focus on crimes in the nineteen seventies
and eighties. I think that true crime of the He's
(42:31):
in two thousands and serrics nineteen thousands are covered a
lot less than you know, I think the more famous
serial killers of that time. That's why a lot of
these people, I mean, the men Andez brothers were from
the eighties or early nineties, but they are the exception,
and until Ryan Murphy did the documentary, not a lot
of people cover them because they just murdered their parents.
They didn't go on other killing spreez. But like the
Ted Bundies of the world and the Jeffrey Dahmers of
(42:54):
the world, who are you know? Every true crime podcast
talks about millions of books are sold and about these topics.
I think that I think that that's why we're really
we're really consumed with that generation. Also, I don't think
there's an attention paid to black zerial killers. I think
that we should do more shows about them. On the
(43:18):
Murphy Monster series. I have seen the Dahmer one. I
thought it was really well made. It was very good.
It wasn't overly gory, which was good. The men Anda's
brother was a really gory murder scene and really really
hard to watch rape scenes. So I didn't enjoy watching
it because it was so gruesome. Although Chloe Sevenier is
(43:40):
brilliant as the mom. She's a really good actress. Okay,
which ones would I like to make? If I can
make a horror I'm not a horror but his through
crime serial killer movie. It would be about either the
Canny man killer, which is Dean Corral. He was a
killer from the seventies. Although I said, we take two
bunch emphasis in the seventies. His story is fascinating. He
(44:02):
killed lots of young men in Houston when Houston was
becoming a budding metropolis, and basically it's so insane because
there was so many new people in the city that
the police would not didn't have the capacity to actually
cover a lot of crimes. And back in those days,
especially I guess in Texas. Back in those days, it
(44:24):
was not uncommon for young boys to be runaways, and
he would ed gaines would either have them before they
were murdered, or he themselves would write letters to their
parents saying I'm going to go work on the train tracks.
I'm being to send my money home in a couple
of weeks. So some parents weren't even looking for them,
and he didn't even wasn't even a suspect at the
(44:45):
time that he was murdered by one of his soon
to be victims. It was only because the two young
men who are still alive and in prison the only reason.
He had two young male accomplices who would lure these
young men into his apartment where he did this horrific
accept of torture and murder to them. He tried to
(45:05):
rape and murder them, and they turned and killed him.
And at the time of his murder, they weren't even
looking for him. They didn't have a suspect. They did
not know that there was this terrible serial killer active
in use, and he prayed on poor boys whose parents
didn't have the I guess political capital or weren't considered
a priority of the police. That few police that could
(45:28):
investigate because the police were so overwhelmed. It's a horrific story.
It's a fascinating story. It's fascinating because they weren't looking
for him, and he also had a girlfriend, but he
was gay. That whole aspect I think is interesting. And
the fact that his two accomplices are still alive. They
are serving life in prison even though they only murdered
ed Gains himself. If they were accomplices, but I think
they were miners when they were accomplises for most part
(45:50):
of it. It's a fascinating story. We love that to
be a story. And then the other one is on
the Zebra Killers. They were a black and notionalist gang
in San Francisco once again the nineteen seventies. I know,
I just said we shouldn't talk with the seventies so much,
but that was this black the black nationalist who targeted
(46:11):
and murdered white people, which happened not like every day,
but there were gangs of black nationalists who did target
to murder white people and it's never been covered. And
how the police handled it was insane because they would
give black residents of San Francisco a card every day
and they had to get the card. It's called a
(46:31):
Zebra card, and they would be padded down for guns
and if they didn't have any, then they got their
card like stamped that day and they were allowed to
roam free. They could just go back to their house
and get the gun. It made it literally was the
most insane police work in the world. And then I
think they caught one and he ratted everybody out. But
it's a great interesting story on policing that I find
(46:52):
super fascinating. If you want to hear about a story
that is more recent, there was a book by Callahan
who she's a host on the Megan Kelly Network. Schmoureen Callahan.
She wrote a book about Israel Keys. He was one
of the only murderers of the twenty first century. Serial
Murders twenty first century. Great book, interesting, fascinating, book and
(47:16):
Israel Keys murdered tons of people. Was born in a cult,
so he had like no ID. He was not in
any kind of program, no like DNA program for like
twenty three in meter because his whole family lived on
a cult. He was a monster and it was a
super interesting story into the mind of a truly sociopathic
serial killer. Anyway, I know that's not the best happy
(47:38):
way to end a story about serial killing, but I
do love true crime. I would love to do maybe
an episode on True crime one day. But yeah, those
are my ones. I would like to do Ed Gaines,
Israel Keys, and Dean Corell the Candy Man Killer, if
anyone has to say with Ryan Murphy pitched those ideas
to him. And thank you for listening to this episode
of the podcast. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,
(47:59):
Apple podcast wherever you listen to your podcast, and I
will see you guys on Monday.
Welcome back to a Numbers Game podcast, Ryan Grodski, thank
you all for being here again. We are less than
two weeks away from the election. Make a plan to vote.
Local elections matter. I guarantee you there's a local election
that you might not even know about coming up. So
figure out who's running, who you're going to support, and
get it and vote. Make your voice be heard. I
have a few stories that I want to cover today. First,
(00:26):
this story flew under the radar from the mainstream media.
I actually didn't see any almost anyone cover it, and
it's not super important, but it flies in the face
of an old narrative that is very commonly regurgitated without
any thought, without anyone even thinking about it, and that
it's slavery made America wealthy. Now, first and foremost, you
(00:48):
know everything I think. I don't think I need to
say this, but I'm going to say this. First of all,
I'm not praising or condoning or belittling experience of slavery.
You know, I wish we'd never had slaves in this country. However,
that's statement that slavery made America rich simply isn't true.
And not only did it not make America rich, but
it kept the South poor. That's according to a new
(01:11):
study from researchers from Columbia, Dartmouth, and Yale Universities. Their
names are trev Allen, Winston, Chen and Siresh and I
do I guarantee you I mispronounced the last name, but
I tried Siresh. Their study explored what the Antebellum American
economy would have looked like without slavery, it says quote.
Combining theory and data, we then quantify how dismantling the
(01:35):
institutional slavery affected the spatial economy. We find that the
economic impacts of emancipation are substantially generating welfare gains for
enslaved of roughly twelve hundred percent, while reducing welfare for
free workers byzero point seven percent and eliminating slave holder profit.
Aggregated GDP rises by nine point one percent, with a
(01:56):
contraction and agricultural productivity counteracted by an expansion of manufacturing
and services driven by an exodus of former enslaved workers
out of agriculture and into the US North. All right,
Remember that at the time of the Civil War, products
made from slaves made about twelve point six percent of
our GDP, but slaves had a lower level of productivity
(02:20):
than free men because capitalism is what drives people to
work hard. Cotton specifically, which is, you know what, we
kind of align the idea of what slaves in American
South did. Cotton specifically was only five percent of our GDP,
and according to a study from the Chicago Booth Review,
slavery distorted markets and slave workers earned about one hundred
(02:42):
dollars a year market wage, but produced only sixty dollars
net for owners due to coercion, costs, emancipations. Efficiency gains
equated to four percent on the low estimate to thirty
five percent on the high estimate of GDP. Slavery was
very expensive to own a slave. They didn't work as
hard as free people because they didn't have the drive
(03:05):
and the motivation of making more money, and agriculture was
definitely a lower level of wealth generation than manufacturing and
service industries and other things that the American North was doing.
The North was far more prosperous than the South because
they had moved away from a groaring society into an
industrialized society. The slavery slowed the South's development, making slave
(03:28):
states poor per capita, then free states by eighteen sixty.
The left says that slavery made America rich. No capitalism
made America rige a Protestant work ethic made America rich.
Property rights made America rich. I think that the fact
that these Ivy League universities are willing to put up
this study. I don't think they would have put this
(03:50):
study necessarily in twenty twenty, but they were willing to
put up the study. Something that you're not going to
hear from a lot of other podcasts and a lot
of other media outlets really lies in the face of
the left's narrative. Slavery didn't make America rich, and in fact,
it made the South poor. I just think that's interesting.
You know, I don't talk a lot about history on
(04:10):
this podcast, but I found that site very, very fascinating.
I put it in my substack on the National Populist
newsletter from last week, but I thought I had to
share with you guys. Okay, let's talk about the upcoming elections.
They're coming up close. I know that I've made this
a big election podcast, talking about it almost every episode,
but you know, this is what this is, what the
news are, This is what's going to also forecast how
(04:33):
people perceive the midterms, people perceive the strength and weakness
of President Trump and his coalition. There have been a
flurry of polls in Virginia, especially focused on the Attorney
General's race. Since October eighth, there have been eight polls
on the Virginia AG race, and Republican Jason Miarez is
beating Democrat Jay Jones in six of the eight polls.
(04:55):
The outlier are an internal poll from the Democratic Attorney
General's Associate which has Mira's and Jones tide, and then
a poll from a young guy named Chaz Nutty Comb
who follows a lot of Virginia politics. Very smart, but
he's more liberal than he cares to admit. He has
Jones winning by five points. Now, I want to be
fair and state that a lot of the other polls
that have miaras Republican winning are also from Republican life firms.
(05:19):
Not all of them, but quite a few. When you
aggregate all the polls together those eight poles, the race
is still tight, but Miara's leads Jones forty seven to
forty five points. Frankly, for a guy who texted that
he dreamed of murdering his political opponents and seeing their
children die. I think that's too close for comfort, but
it is the state of the country today. A big
(05:41):
question is how well does Lieutenant Governor win some seers
the Republican perform if she has a tremendous loss, right
she's a team point loss, which is what the Chaz
Nutty Comb Pole says, It's going to be hard for Miaras,
like he's got to really have a lot of people
willing to cast a ballot when they're going to vote
for the Democrat, or willing to just skip the line
(06:03):
overall after voting for Winsam, after voting for Abigail Spamberger,
the Democrat. That's that's asking for a lot. When you
aggregate all the polls together, Spamberger has an eight point lead,
fifty one to forty three. That's the most really that
I think Miaras can afford her to lose by a
(06:24):
lot of It matters at the top of the ticket
as far as making sure Republicans have a strong turnout
in it. You know, Winsim's hears has a lot of
weight to carry. Anyone running at the top of the
ticket has a lot of weight to carry for the
rest of the party. It's concerning the race for lieutenant governor,
which is not really being paid attention to. It's very close.
(06:44):
It's much closer than the race for governor. Overall. Republican
John Reid is down by just five points against the
Democrat Gazala Hashmi forty eight to forty three in those polls,
but that's much closer than the other polls. He's doing
decently well. It's a race that literally no one is
paying attention to. Over in New Jersey. Only one new
poll has come out recently and it showed Democrat Mikey
(07:06):
Cheryl ahead by five points and was conducted by Rutgers University.
The last time the university did the poll, it was
a much larger lead for the Democrats. So once again,
momentum and the momentum has always gone to Jack Chitdarelli,
the Republican. I mean he really has. He's earned Democrat endorsements,
he has earned Union endorsements. He's been campaigning all over
(07:28):
the state. Kelsey Grammar just cut an ad for him,
and Republicans have been ahead of Democrats are returning their
mail in Ballid much longer than they were in twenty
twenty four, twenty twenty one rather and he earned a
huge endorsement from the Orthodox Jewish community that endorsed Governor
Phil Murphy last time, and the twenty twenty one race
(07:49):
when Chitarelly was running last time, So he has had
a lot of things break in his favor. It's just
the fundamentals of the state, even if the state is
moving to the right. Mikey Cheryl goes into this election
with eight hundred and fifty four thousand more registered Democrats
than Chittarelli has Republicans, and she's been running a lackluster
(08:10):
campaign across the board, but that may be enough to
save her. It may just be that the state is
still blue enough, although it's not as blue as it
used to be, that you know, it's enough. And also
a lot of the people who voted for Trump for
the first time last time, in places like Passaic County,
they're not guaranteed voters. They're lower propensity voters, so they
(08:33):
have to show up, which is a big gamble. Who knows.
It's interesting that most Democrats from Gavin Newsom in California,
who's trying to redraw the districts of his state to
Mikey Cheryl in New Jersey, to even Jay Jones, who
is running for Attorney General of Virginia. They've made this
election about one thing more than anything else, and that
is Donald Trump. Even California State Senator Scott Wiener, he's
(08:57):
primary Nancy Pelosi for the seat in San Francisco, his
opening announcement is all about Donald Trump. Trump's Trump is
the whole show for the Democrats running for office this year.
And we are, you know, wear a decade into Trump's
political career, and it's a decade where the walls have
closed on him more times than I can count, yet
(09:20):
he persists, you know. And Democrats, who have an abundance
of young talent, they have the trust of the American
people on issues like healthcare and abortion, they can't seem
to talk about really anything else besides the President. And
this is of interest to me and slightly of concern.
Where is the party going? Selena Lake, a veteran Democratic
(09:41):
post told The New York Times over the weekend that
she fears that Trump is like crack cocaine for their
party and that they can't get enough. And if you
watched the No Kings protest, you saw the people that
were overwhelmingly in that crowd. In those crowds, they were
much older. Even I think NBC News, the local Boston affiliate,
(10:04):
was commenting about how old a crowd was. This is
MSNBC watchers, this is CNN watchers. These are people who
have a paranoid fear of Trump being a dictator and
ending democracy, and they're the ones who vote very very frequently.
But we are at a place now where Donald Trump's
political career, whether you love him or hate him, is
(10:27):
more behind us than it is in front of us.
And we're going to wake up in twenty twenty six
and find the Democrats twenty six, twenty twenty eight. Rather,
we're going to find the Democratic Party in a much
different place than when it started in twenty fifteen, because
as much as Trump has defined the Republican Party, resisting
(10:47):
Trump has defined the Democratic Party, and they haven't done
a good job at establishing new talent that can run
on a national level since Obama, I mean there is
since he said, you know, there's no red state America
or bluesid America, that iconic Obama speech, there is, you know,
the Democratic Party nominated Hillary in twenty sixteen nominated Biden
(11:08):
in twenty twenty and Biden twenty twenty four slash Kamwa
Harris without a primary. That's a very long time of
new talent and Obama by the in twenty twelve there
was no primary. There hasn't been a time in Democratic
politics for new talent to really see that they could
rise to the top. You know, really in two decades,
(11:30):
you could argue in twenty twenty there was a lot
of people like Pete pouda judge who made an attempt
to do it.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Well.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
I mean, I don't know if any of those people
really have a career going forward. But it's been two
decades since like a thoughtful, ambitious and multi level fielded
race took place, and a lot of leaders of the
Democratic Party are either old news, they're Octagerians like Bernie Sanders,
or there to you know, Zora Mandani left. And it
(12:00):
begs the question of who will lead the party when
the conversation is no longer about Trump and what will
the party talk about? Who will the party speak to?
Is it just going to be those voters of the
No King rally, Because those voters are not representative of
the American people as a whole. So where is the
Democratic Party and who is going to lead it without Trump?
What are they going to talk about without Trump? That's
(12:23):
coming up next. My guest in today's episode is my
favorite host on Two Way, Dan Turtin, host the Morning
Meeting and the Group Chat. He's a veteran Democrat politico. Dan,
thank you for being here. Roan, Thank you so much
for having me. It's great to be honest. You're you're
my favorite host because you show up, you look the part,
you want the job, like you're there every day. You know,
(12:44):
Shawn's got the sun in his face. He just like Markle.
He came from golfing. You don't know, like Shawn's like
walking half the time. You're actually fully there. And I'm like,
Dan is the man who show up for work. And
I always appreciate that.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Thank you. I try Dan.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
So Democrats are looking pretty good ahead of the upcoming
elections in two weeks that are likely to retain the
New York mayor's race, redraw the map in California, pick
up the governor's election in Virginia by a pretty good margin,
and then they have a healthy but not outstanding lead
in the New Jersey governor's race, and yet at the
same time in The New York Times wrote about this,
(13:21):
the main focus for all these positives is Donald Trump.
How much has Donald Trump as much as to find
the republic Party, how much has he defined the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
One hundred percent for the last ten years. I mean,
go back to Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen, at the
end of that election, when she really was just trying
to disqualify him as much as she was trying to
pump herself up. And ever since then, the focus has
been on this kind of idea that it's a fever
dream that if we just scream hard enough, find the
(13:52):
next indictment, the next wrongdoing, the next inappropriate comment or
you know, meme on X, that the voters will say,
my gosh, we made such a horrendous mistake. We can't
believe we did this. Even the No King's rally, it
is still to this day, this idea of an obsession
with the man, his character, his conduct. What has just
(14:15):
never happened really and still, you know, much to my
frustration and others, the party really has never stepped back
and said, why is he so popular, why has he won?
Why is it Ryan In my lifetime and I love politics.
You can see the books behind me. I don't think
any politician that I know of has started a movement
(14:36):
and ten years on been more powerful with the movement,
the size of the movement than when it started. Usually,
like Obama in O eight, you know, after a year
or less of governing, it gets messy, it starts to
you know, kind of come apart at the seams. Why
why is he so successful? And that just you know,
instead it's just be a little louder and a little
(14:58):
harsher and a little nastier and all will end.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
Yeah. And it's also the fact is the No King's rally.
I mean it wasn't all old people, but it was
a lot of senior citizens at this rally. And it's
a lot of people who have almost a generational psychosis
from watching MSNBC and CNN NonStop, who have been told
this is a dictator, this is Hitler, this man's evil, YadA, YadA, YadA.
And the the tragic part for the Democratic Party is
(15:23):
that on several it's not not every issue, but on
a bunch of issues, they are way more trusted than Republicans. Healthcare, abortion,
you know a number of things like that, and it's
kind of all gone by the wayside. Is anyone is
there any like thought leader within the Democratic Party who's
really got their finger on the pulse of new ideas
(15:45):
and policies that are going to be you know, advantageous
for the average working class American.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
You know that The sad thing is there are there
are factions within the House, in the Senate, there are
people thinking about running for twenty twenty eight. The problem
is there is still this fear of both being canceled
on social issues and offending the base on the kind
of broader substantive issues. And the ultimate example, Ryan is crime. Right,
(16:12):
when Trump sent in the National Guard, the first response was, well,
crime isn't that bad, which was insanity to try to,
you know, argue that away. What Trump proposed is a
short term solution, right. The National Guard cannot stay everywhere forever.
At some point you have to kind of manage your
own house. Rather than saying, okay, we're going to challenge you. Now,
(16:37):
how about another one hundred thousand new police officers nationwide?
How about you know, pumping up the budgets and let's
redo bail laws, which, by the way, you know, we're
still paying the price for but they just said, no,
there's no problem, No, there's nothing to see, Like we
just abdicated the playing field and something is preferred to nothing.
And I think that is where Trump so often not
(17:00):
only is he on the right side of issues, but
even where people kind of squirm at his tactics and
you know, kind of he goes pullt throttle. It's like
he's doing something on immigration, he's doing something on crime,
he's doing something on free trade, he's doing something to
try to end the war in Ukraine. And all we
do is sit there and attack the man and the
process and wave it away. And voters say, I won't
(17:23):
even listen to anything you have to say anymore. Yeah,
and you saw I don't know if you saw it,
but there was. There's a cant running for US Senate
in Michigan named Haley Stevens.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Oh yeah, wow. She wrote an article I think two
years ago saying send in the National Guard to the
cities and her having to try to back she's running
one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen politics. She
did an event recently, I think two people showed up
and one was her tracker. So I mean that's I've
been on Pond, I've been on a lot of campaign
events which are rough. That is rough, but yeah, so
(17:54):
like who would you say are like thought leaders that
you are? Like, Okay, this person's having interesting conversation on tech,
which is you know, the huge part of our futures. AI,
it's like complete, we're sleeping on it, you know what
I mean? Or like other things that I have, Who
are some people you could point to say this is
a person who's having a thoughtful conversation whose name does
not rhyme with Bernie Sanders.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Yeah, well, I was just gonna say, first off, the
thought leadership energy is with the Bernie Sanders, AOC wing
and Mandani, which is a problem. I think. Well, I'm
sure we'll get to at some point here. The wonder why,
I think not only is putting the thought into but
it's beginning to actually publicly start getting into this is
ram a manual. I think Rom. You know, he's got
his words, he's got his problems within the party in
(18:36):
different factions, but Ram is beginning to go out there
and listen to people understand their frustrations. He's written a
little bit about kind of on cultural issues where we
were wrong, he said it. Now he you know the
fact that he has to then self deprecating these day,
I'm going to go into the witness protection program, tells
you where you know, he knows he's in. He's in
(18:57):
the deep end of the pool. But ram is I
actually think people like Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro are
doing it, or they're going to do it with a show,
not kind of tell, meaning they're gonna say, look at
what I've done in our states, right, I worked with
Trump to protect the Great Lakes. Or Shapiro, Hey, look,
(19:18):
I got a bunch of Republicans to vote for me
because I don't criticize them. I'm willing to work with
them and say where they're right. So there are, but
generally speaking, a lot of people are very very cautious
because they look around and you got people like JB.
Pritzker and others who are saying, we have nothing to
apologize for. Right again, we need to be louder, we
(19:39):
need to be more direct, right and just go right
at Trump and I to me, I believe that what
all it will ultimately is it has been for ten years,
is a losing proposition.
Speaker 1 (19:50):
You know, what's so funny is because I still consult
on campaigns. I'm doing a statewide race right now, and
I've done I don't know a million at this point.
And like I've told people, uh, you know, I even
told JD when we when right before I started working
on the super bac for his Senate race. Like the
lesson to take away from Trump from his twenty sixteen
campaign is not to be you know, boisterous on social
(20:16):
media for lack of a better word, but to challenge
party orthodoxy when it's unpopular. Like Trump on abortion, Trump
on Medicare, Medicaid, social Security. He basically took the entire
Paul Ryan platform and smashed it into little bits because
no one, no one liked it. No, and Nolan, I
didn't vote for Mitt Romney because Paul Ryan was on
the ticket. I thought that he was like a joke.
(20:38):
Like there is there is unpopular no, no, not that
everything Trump says is popular, but there's really unpopular rigid
ideology parts of both parties, Tickets and the Democrats, you know,
even like on the trans issue, which is not the
most important issue, as whin some series is going to
(20:58):
experience in two weeks. It is it is very much
an eighty twenty issue that they are still not knowing
what to sit there and say. It reminds you in
twenty sixteen of when I forget who was running. Some
woman was running for president and the Republican ticket, the
woman from California, and they ask for a gay Marriager.
She's like, I'm for civil unions. I'm like, you are
(21:19):
a decade behind where the conversation's going, Harley, Harley, because
you're so nervous that you like you are not willing
to just go out there and go where the public is.
And I feel like Democrats like that were a lot
of things. Crime, immigration, YadA YadA, yeah, the trans stuff.
What do you think?
Speaker 2 (21:37):
Yeah, I mean, winning candidates for president usually have as
a part of their opening message, here's where my party's wrong. Right.
So Bill Clinton challenging the party on ironically crime, on trade,
right on the economy. Donald Trump challenged it on immigration.
At the time, right the Wall Street Journal, everyone Marco
(21:58):
Rubio was all about, you know, the pathway to citizenship.
He said, here's where you're wrong on free trade, the
forever Wars. I remember when Trump went into South Carolina
and said the Iraq war was stupid and everyone was like, ah,
that's it. He's going down, and you know, vote our party.
There's two things we don't have other than maybe healthcare
(22:20):
and abortion, any eighty twenty issues that are on our
side where we say we you know, the public is
with us. Republicans are really on a back foot and
are back pedaling. Where has our challenging the status quo?
I know people are talking about education. Maybe Okay, I'm curious.
It's a complicated issue. It's a big issue, like what
(22:41):
facet are you going to pick? But I agree with you,
the party has got to pick some issues and disrupt
right now because we're so against Trump, Ryan, we have
become an issue after issue defending the status quo, the
issue and the process. Right, Hey, you can't do this,
you can't can change this. Things aren't that bad on
(23:03):
issue after she was kind of what the party argues.
When worldwide the public watch change, they're not I mean
Mandani personifies that right in our party now, we want change,
primaries of older candidates, we want change, blowing up the filipbuster,
changing rules. The base wants change, as is the Republican Party.
(23:23):
It's just because they're so afraid of our base. No
one is willing to get out there and lead. And
I always say this, Trump's secret sauce is substance. As
you say, he challenged the status quo unapologetically and with
full force. And that's ultimately what made people say I'm
gonna go wait in line for the guy for you know,
ten hours in the rain in you know, the Berkshooters
(23:44):
in twenty fifteen.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Yeah, you know, it's so crazy. I keep telling the Republicans, like, guys,
electricity prices are the new papist issue. Talk about data centers.
It's so important. They're just missing the vote. Can we
just talk about Cuoma for a second. Sure, he's always
a terrible candidate, and we just didn't notice because he
was always He was anointed into his ag seed and
(24:07):
then anointed into the governor's mansion and was in the blue,
super blue state, and only Cynthia Nixon challenged him, and
she didn't. She she had a great campaign, ads, but
she was an insufferable personality. So like is was he
always just bad? Or did he just doesn't doesn't? Or
was he expect to be anointed again?
Speaker 2 (24:24):
You know? So funny you say this because I asked
something very similar in that I watched as part of
my job, the entire debate the other night, and I
could not believe how terrible Andrew Coma was.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Horrible.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Uh uh. You know what what I know or knew
of Andrew Cmo was this feared politician who carries brass knuckles,
you know, destroys his opponent, is ruthless, wins it all.
Coust is known to be very you know, quick on
his feet and good with a quip. And I saw
a guy that was rambling, rigid, you know, had the
(24:58):
fact that Mandannie had all these slick answers and retorts,
and Cuomo walked into you know, set attacks like against himself.
You know, when he tried.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
To use he could answer on COVID no.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
And look he was attacked once again on visiting a mosque,
which was a huge thing back in his primary and
he still had not rectified it. And you know, you
had no to know what was coming. What happened was
and I was asked this earlier today, how come how
do we get to having Mandanni and Cuomo to choose?
And obviously Curtis Leewa, you go back a year and Cuomo,
(25:34):
led by about thirty to forty points, and most Democrats said, Okay,
I'm not running into that buzzsaul I actually had a
candidate reach out to me and asked to me. We
sat down on a Saturday for about two hours, and
he wanted to talk about running and what did I think,
et cetera. And one of my first questions was, are
(25:54):
you willing to take on Andrew Cuomo? Right, he's going
to do whatever he has to do it. If you rise,
if you're successful, that's good. The bad news is you're
on his radar and here comes the heat seeking missiles.
He ran everybody out, but you know that he won
the war before a shot was fired. People just didn't
realize how terrible he was going to be actually running
for mayor on this kind of rose garden strategy. I
(26:17):
don't really talk to the press, have like, you know,
three or four things, crime and education, and Mandonnie just
had a finger on the pulse and went out and hustled.
If people knew that the front runner was going to
be a thirty three year old socialist, you I mean
the number of people who would have run members of Congress,
you know, wealthy people, business people, but you know, it's
(26:40):
like in ninety two, the number of Democrats who are like,
the gonna be Bill Clinton. I want to run.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
No, it's so you know, a former New York Yankee
from like the Dynasty or reached out to me about
running as a Republican, and I just said, listen, Curtis
has been hitting the pavement for seven for five straight
years now, like it's gonna be tough. And then and
then if you beat him, you got Andrew Kuama and
he's just going to be our next mayor. I don't like,
I don't know how to tell you. I discoverage person
running him like Cuomo was going to be impossible to beat.
(27:06):
I mean, and I am dumbfounded, just dumbfounded, how like
you know you could. I do not like how we
handle COVID at all. And he did things that were
I think vindictive towards the end about keeping things closer
too long. However, I'm a New York resident. Went it happened,
and people looked for leadership, and the whole country looked
(27:27):
at him, and he took a lot of words from Fauci,
and he he stood in a time of crisis, and
right or wrong, he could sit there and say I
was a leader when the country needed me, and I
made mistakes, but I did the best I could. And
he couldn't answer that I was. I could write a
better answer, and I disagree with you, And like, I
can't believe how little energy there is. It's this strange
(27:49):
dichotomy you're seeing in the Democratic Party as a whole,
and it's nationwide. It's Abigail Spemberger in Virginia and Mikey
Cheryl in New Jersey. They represent a lot of what
Democrats traditionally went on right, upper middle class to wealthy
women who uh, even though they're of the left, they
appear something that moderates can you know, like and take
(28:11):
and look responsible and sound smart.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
And then you have Zoron and military service with both
of them right right now.
Speaker 1 (28:20):
There's they're there, if credentials behind them, they've got money
behind them. There's everything they If you said to me,
draw a picture of what a Democrat would want to
run with, I would draw Abigail spambo because like it
is what they would like it. It's like looking at
a young Hillary Clinton to a certain degree that yeah,
I mean she is, yeah, that's clearly going to run
(28:40):
for president. One day, and I mean, you can tell,
you could see the entire arc right there. Uh. The
thing about that it's interesting, though, is is that towards
the end of the campaign, Spamberger is doing fine, but
she's not as strong as she was a couple of
months ago. Agree and Mikey Cheryl has struggle throughout the
whole campaign, Like she still has not gotten minorities to
(29:05):
vote for her. Their vote their return on the mail
ballads is ten percent lower than whites. She lost the
Jewish support that was the for Governor Murphy she's had.
She's She's also a number of Democratic defections in Hudson County,
which is a very Democratic county that were supporting shit
Arelly Zoran at the same time, is only gaining ground
as time has gone on. And I talked to a
(29:27):
Democratic consultant on this podcast a cop months ago, and
he said to me, it's not a question of if
a socialist will be the Democratic nominee for president, It's
just a question of when do you come to that
same opinion for president. You're saying for president Dominie for president.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
Yeah, I think it is likely yes, in the short run.
And I think the ultimate example of this is AOC,
because I don't see how she does not run. Mark
Cokwper and I go back and forth back this, He's like,
no way, no, she's not. You're not a top tier cannon.
And I'm like, she's got the energy, she's of the
(30:05):
of the base. She's the intellectual kind of heart of
the base. Right now, she's gonna have no problem raising money.
So I think when you look at someone like Mandani,
you look at someone like AOC. You know, Bernie Sanders
being another example. They're getting closer, right like Sandersen, you know,
almost got it in sixteen, less so in twenty. But
(30:29):
right now, if I had to bet AOC would start
with twenty five percent of the vote, I mean she
and Gavin Newsom will be the two front runners. You
have a debate. My bet is she knocks him out
more than he you know that more likely than he
would knock her out because she's got the substance and
she's got the energy of the base behind her. So
(30:51):
I don't know. Historically we back, you know, we flirt,
but then we kind of sober up right before you know,
wedding day, Howard Dean you know, didn't didn't ultimately get there.
The same thing with Sanders in sixteen Sanders and Warren
in twenty. We just don't have a history of ultimately
going through. But kind of like Republicans, you do, you
don't until you do right, and then all of a
(31:13):
sudden you get Trump and like there it is. So
it is possible. And look, I think some of these
inner primary battles for the House, you're gonna see more
Socialists after Mandonnie likely wins. I'm gonna be curious about Jefferies.
The rumor here in New York is he is going
to endorse Mandannie probably Friday, probably Friday afternoon, late.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Lately, but he Mandonnie didn't, is not endorsing Hokeel No.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
And the word is that mcdonnie's looking for someone to primary.
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Yeah there's that gay black councilman from andre Choi or
something like that.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
Yeah. So, I mean, I we need to have this.
Like as much as it's painful for me and as
much as I roll my eyes at you know, parts
of our party. We need this fight. We need to
have primaries, we need to have debates and let everybody
go at each other. I think we may ultimately the
socialists may win. I think in the long run they'll lose,
(32:10):
but we need to stop putting a lid on it
and saying we can't do this.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
Now, there is this guy, and I'm looking for his name,
and of course just loot of this question. Now I'm
blanking in his name. He's an Indian gentleman. He was
the thought leader really behind AOC and he is running
against Nancy Pelosi.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
Oh yeah, yeah, I know here.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
Yeah, he was the cheap of staff and he was
the one he was the thought leader behind the Green
New Deal. I mean, he really thought of it and
gave it to AOC and she ran with it. I'm
gonna remember it ten minutes after we stopped talking his name.
But anyway, do you think AOC endorses against Nancy Pelosi
endorses are former chief of staff.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
I think she'll wait to see if Pelosi, you know,
announces she's gonna step down. That the word is here
that she's going to do it right after the election.
Someone I know close to her said, when she leaves,
she's going to go, meaning she'll announce on like Monday
that I'm out on Friday. She's not gonna say what
she say. Yeah, yeah, she's not gonna say I'm going
to serve out the rest of this Congress, and and
(33:16):
and and go out. So I don't know. I think
it'll be a free for all. Reports are she wants
to She's leaning towards this. I think it's a Korean
American woman in San Francisco who's a city council woman.
Speaker 1 (33:27):
Is kind of daughter wants to run.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
Yeah, well that's always been out there that that she does.
But but this council woman, apparently is is who she
may favor. It's going to be really interesting to see
because AOC I think does face this, this this fork
in the road, which is she has in the last
few years become more of an inside baseball player. She's
kept her mouth kind of quiet about certain things where
(33:51):
you know, she defended Joe Biden really to the end,
which is something people don't talk much about. She was
very royal. I think that was a sign to the
to the party. I say this because does she want
to be Ted Kennedy, meaning a member of the House
or the Senate, you know, leadership for forty years and
try to have all this legislation that kind of bends
the artic on various issues, or does she say, sitting
(34:15):
around here is a waste of my time. I'm going
to go this is my shot. Who knows in five years,
if I still have the energy in the base and everything,
I'm going for president. And if I don't, I'm going
to go get a contract on MSNBC and you know,
be a pundit.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
Well, she's also a woman of a particular age, where
like if she wants have children, the window is shutting
on it. She wants there's a personal aspect to all
these politicians of like do I want to have some
I mean, politics is a drug you don't want to
ever stop. And once it's there, there's nothing like a
campaign night, even though you know there's no adrenaline rush
I've ever experienced like a great day night. But you
(34:51):
know there's that aspect of like this is just she
don't want to have kids? Is she want to have
a normal family in any capacity? My last question because
I know I'm trying to keep you over so like
the and in the last election, Democrats have really done
very well with older voters. Older voters of when Bush
was running, those voters have passed away most of them.
And then the I always say Archie Bunker's dead. But
(35:11):
meet head as a senior citizen. Now that's that's older
voters now, like they've changed, great analogy. Yeah so, but
they struggle with lower pensity voters, minority men, people that
are were would would nationally be part of the Obama coalition.
Has anyone worked directify that that you sing for.
Speaker 2 (35:29):
Some people that think the Obama coalition can be put
back together. Most people I talk to think we need
a new coalition, and and that that that I mean,
you just take those tenants right. Trump won young voters.
We're struggling not only with black young men, Latinos, we've
lost them just in general. Here, what is the new coalition?
(35:49):
We've really become white collar services in the urban centers
in kind of those tight suburban collars around a lot
of areas. Is our base. And how do weind of
expand into other areas because on a macro level, Trump
is making further inroads into blue areas and we're getting
further and further away from.
Speaker 1 (36:09):
Red areas, and so Swing County one does yeah, I mean.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
Trying to put the Obama coalition back together. I just don't.
I think the Obama coalition contributed to our erosion with
the white working class. It it started, you know before,
but this focus on young people, minorities and then liberals
right the kind of wealthier people, that gap in between
(36:33):
was not really sustainable without an incredibly talented, unique person
like black Obama was. But even in twenty twelve, as
you know, he ground that thing out. I mean, there
was no hope and joy if those margins got much
much smaller, like the trend lines were already beginning to
move against him. And so I think we need a
(36:54):
new coalition. And of course part of this is does
the Trump coalition hold, you know, going forward for Jdvans
or whomever, or do some of these voters come back
up for grabs.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
Yeah. No, that's a great question, and it's something that
I think a lot of Republicans are looking at in
the midterms because they're drawing maps right now that are
dependent on a Trump coalition that if it, if it
flares out in any capacity, they might be they might
have drawn themselves into a dummy mander.
Speaker 2 (37:22):
Yeah, it's possible, particularly in Texas.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
Yeah, yeah, where can people go to read more? Yourseff,
I could talk to you all day long, and I don't.
Speaker 2 (37:28):
Wan't happy to do it.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
I know where can people go to read you more?
I love you? On two Ways so you can give
any of your plugs of social media to follow up.
Speaker 2 (37:36):
Yeah, no, two Way would be the best place. We
are the Morning Meeting, which we are alive from nine
to ten am Eastern Monday through Friday. You can also
it's streams so you can catch it, you know, whenever
is convenient for you. And then I do something called
the Group Chat on Thursdays at four o'clock live again,
also on two Way, also streams so you can watch
that too. Those are the two primary places. And then
(37:58):
when given an invitation like you gave me, I'm always
always loved to talk about this.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
I could do it answering my DM my anonymous dam
on Twitter.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
Thank you not anonymous?
Speaker 1 (38:07):
What anonymous night unsolicited? Unsolicited? Yeah, thank you so much
for being here.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Thanks Ryan, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
Hey, we'll be right back after this. Okay, Now it's
time for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show.
You guys love this. I love this. If you want
to be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email
me Ryan at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. That's Ryan at
numbers Plural numbers Game podcast dot com. I read every
email and respond to every email. The first question comes
(38:37):
from Russell King. He asks, he asked many many questions,
So Russell, I'm going to get to the top three
very quickly. He says, is DEI dead on arrival starting
in twenty twenty four? I think he meant twenty twenty five.
But it has a lost cultural power and has it
lost corporate power. DEI is not dead, but it's definitely very,
(38:57):
very wounded, if not slowly dying. There are two main
factors considered. First, it's institutional practice itself of hiring and
promoting individuals based almost exclusively on racial or other potential
relevant identity markers like being gay or trans or a woman.
Then there's the other part of a broader cultural influence
that policies like this generate parts of the American culture
(39:20):
have been influenced by modern liberal politics. For sometime years ago,
there was this reference to a to this is like
political correctness, and then social justice, and then it was
like wokeness. But using woke is now a descriptor of
fading popularity. Right if you're like no one says that
they're woke, and it's a good thing. Woke is typically
(39:40):
looked down upon, and a lot of corporations understand this
and have moved away from a lot of woke stuff. Specifically,
policies like DEI remain in the headlines, but among the
general population they're definitely lower. Electing Donald Trump was a
big part of that. Should a broader cultural backlash against
corporate or a corporate behavior like this, and also like
(40:02):
a lot of other policies, a lot of democratic policies
that they championed. Trump had also on an executive order
that changeless Executive Order fourteen fifteen one one four one
five to one that brought the termination of all activities
relating to diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility by federal departments. Remember,
there is nothing more lucrative on this planet than either
(40:24):
a state or federal contract. So the promotion of ending
DEI policies in federal contracting and in state contracting, and
some states have done this, not all and not enough
also was a use and a good reason to sit
there and for corporations to drop it because they want
a federal contract. It's guaranteed check year in and year out,
(40:45):
month in and month out. So I think it's definitely wounded.
And I think one of the telltale signs that you
could sit there and see is that companies are hiring
white men for their corporate boards at the fastest rate
in years. That wouldn't happen if DEI was surging, and
if it was not, you know, in the throes of
a very very painful exit. We'll see if things change
(41:08):
if in three years a time. But Trump's only one
term into his year, so there's three more year of
this practice. I would doubt to see it increases over
the next three years. Next question comes from Jason, who
asks if Mandani can win the New York mail race
in the first round of ranked choice voting. Thankfully, Jason
that unlike Maine in Alaska, New York City does not
have ranked choice voting in the general election, so it's
(41:29):
whoever gets a plurality. So if he gets forty percent
and the next person is thirty nine percent, he still wins.
They don't have to go to rank choice voting. I'm
sure that Cuomo would have loved ranked choice voting in
a general election and hate it in a primary. It
would have benefited him, but there is none in the
general so Mandonnie just needs to get the most raw
votes on election day and he's the next mayor. Last
(41:51):
question comes from Patrick. He writes, Hey, Ryan, what is
your most controversial true crime hot take? Also thoughts on
the new Edge Gain show and the rest of the
Ryan Murphy Monster series. Dahmer Menendez Brothers. Season four is
reported about Lizzie Borden. What true crime story would you
like to see portrayed in season five? O hot take
(42:11):
is I'm going to say the hot take on the
way that the media covers true crime. I think that
one because consumers of true crime tend to are a
lot of gen xers, a lot of baby boomers. I
think we overly focus on crimes in the nineteen seventies
and eighties. I think that true crime of the He's
(42:31):
in two thousands and serrics nineteen thousands are covered a
lot less than you know, I think the more famous
serial killers of that time. That's why a lot of
these people, I mean, the men Andez brothers were from
the eighties or early nineties, but they are the exception,
and until Ryan Murphy did the documentary, not a lot
of people cover them because they just murdered their parents.
They didn't go on other killing spreez. But like the
Ted Bundies of the world and the Jeffrey Dahmers of
(42:54):
the world, who are you know? Every true crime podcast
talks about millions of books are sold and about these topics.
I think that I think that that's why we're really
we're really consumed with that generation. Also, I don't think
there's an attention paid to black zerial killers. I think
that we should do more shows about them. On the
(43:18):
Murphy Monster series. I have seen the Dahmer one. I
thought it was really well made. It was very good.
It wasn't overly gory, which was good. The men Anda's
brother was a really gory murder scene and really really
hard to watch rape scenes. So I didn't enjoy watching
it because it was so gruesome. Although Chloe Sevenier is
(43:40):
brilliant as the mom. She's a really good actress. Okay,
which ones would I like to make? If I can
make a horror I'm not a horror but his through
crime serial killer movie. It would be about either the
Canny man killer, which is Dean Corral. He was a
killer from the seventies. Although I said, we take two
bunch emphasis in the seventies. His story is fascinating. He
(44:02):
killed lots of young men in Houston when Houston was
becoming a budding metropolis, and basically it's so insane because
there was so many new people in the city that
the police would not didn't have the capacity to actually
cover a lot of crimes. And back in those days,
especially I guess in Texas. Back in those days, it
(44:24):
was not uncommon for young boys to be runaways, and
he would ed gaines would either have them before they
were murdered, or he themselves would write letters to their
parents saying I'm going to go work on the train tracks.
I'm being to send my money home in a couple
of weeks. So some parents weren't even looking for them,
and he didn't even wasn't even a suspect at the
(44:45):
time that he was murdered by one of his soon
to be victims. It was only because the two young
men who are still alive and in prison the only reason.
He had two young male accomplices who would lure these
young men into his apartment where he did this horrific
accept of torture and murder to them. He tried to
(45:05):
rape and murder them, and they turned and killed him.
And at the time of his murder, they weren't even
looking for him. They didn't have a suspect. They did
not know that there was this terrible serial killer active
in use, and he prayed on poor boys whose parents
didn't have the I guess political capital or weren't considered
a priority of the police. That few police that could
(45:28):
investigate because the police were so overwhelmed. It's a horrific story.
It's a fascinating story. It's fascinating because they weren't looking
for him, and he also had a girlfriend, but he
was gay. That whole aspect I think is interesting. And
the fact that his two accomplices are still alive. They
are serving life in prison even though they only murdered
ed Gains himself. If they were accomplices, but I think
they were miners when they were accomplises for most part
(45:50):
of it. It's a fascinating story. We love that to
be a story. And then the other one is on
the Zebra Killers. They were a black and notionalist gang
in San Francisco once again the nineteen seventies. I know,
I just said we shouldn't talk with the seventies so much,
but that was this black the black nationalist who targeted
(46:11):
and murdered white people, which happened not like every day,
but there were gangs of black nationalists who did target
to murder white people and it's never been covered. And
how the police handled it was insane because they would
give black residents of San Francisco a card every day
and they had to get the card. It's called a
(46:31):
Zebra card, and they would be padded down for guns
and if they didn't have any, then they got their
card like stamped that day and they were allowed to
roam free. They could just go back to their house
and get the gun. It made it literally was the
most insane police work in the world. And then I
think they caught one and he ratted everybody out. But
it's a great interesting story on policing that I find
(46:52):
super fascinating. If you want to hear about a story
that is more recent, there was a book by Callahan
who she's a host on the Megan Kelly Network. Schmoureen Callahan.
She wrote a book about Israel Keys. He was one
of the only murderers of the twenty first century. Serial
Murders twenty first century. Great book, interesting, fascinating, book and
(47:16):
Israel Keys murdered tons of people. Was born in a cult,
so he had like no ID. He was not in
any kind of program, no like DNA program for like
twenty three in meter because his whole family lived on
a cult. He was a monster and it was a
super interesting story into the mind of a truly sociopathic
serial killer. Anyway, I know that's not the best happy
(47:38):
way to end a story about serial killing, but I
do love true crime. I would love to do maybe
an episode on True crime one day. But yeah, those
are my ones. I would like to do Ed Gaines,
Israel Keys, and Dean Corell the Candy Man Killer, if
anyone has to say with Ryan Murphy pitched those ideas
to him. And thank you for listening to this episode
of the podcast. Please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,
(47:59):
Apple podcast wherever you listen to your podcast, and I
will see you guys on Monday.
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