October 27, 2025 • 36 mins
Ryan breaks down the data driving elections at home and abroad — from early voting trends in New Jersey and Virginia to the rise of populist movements in Argentina and the Netherlands. He also examines the latest in New York City’s mayoral race, the political futures of Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, and what potential changes to the Voting Rights Act could mean for American democracy. It's a Numbers Game is part of the Clay travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Monday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gerdusky. It
is Monday, October twenty seventh, twenty twenty five. We are
just eight days away from the off year local elections.
I feel like we've been talking about this for eight
years at this point, so it's finally the last week
of the election. Make sure you plank a plan. I
go out and vote. I promise you, no matter if
you think that you don't live in Virginia or New Jersey,
(00:23):
there's local elections happening across the entire country. So figure
out who's running, get out and show up and go vote,
especially for school boards. We have a lot of school
board candidates in my pack running this year. I spent
a lot of time thinking about the New York mayoral race,
which I'll have more about at the end of the
show before I talk to you about the rest of
(00:44):
the country and the country as a whole. But I
want to actually spend a second to talk about some
races that have happened overseas because I think they're important.
They're important for an American context. First, in Argentina, they
had their first national election since pre Javier Malay, the
radical libertarian as the New York Times called him won
(01:05):
the presidency in twenty twenty three. This is basically their
version of the mid terms. Now. Polls show that this
was going to be a tight race. Most polls estimate
that Malay's party would be over or under about two points.
And it's funny. Over the weekend, the New York Times
covered this election and basically made it a referendum not
(01:25):
only about free market and economics and capitalism and libertarianism,
but also about Trump because everything has to be able
Trump all the time, and really about the rise of
populism across the West, because the Trump administration just gave
Argentina billions of dollars and people are saying that that's
not America first, or you know whatnot are asking questions
(01:46):
of whether that's legitimate given how much he spent cut
and spending from other countries over the seas. So remember,
going to the last presidential election, Argentina was in an
absolute state of decline. I believe that it had the
worst economy of any white majority country in the world.
But the funniest thing is that the way that the
(02:06):
Times describe Malay's government was they were like, it's a
disaster Malay. Now, listen, Malay has done a lot of
economic reforms because Argentina has has basically been a socialist
country since the time of perone and when describing the
state of Argentina's economy and a president of Malay the
time is rites quote mister Malay's effort to reduce inflation
(02:29):
from the annual rate of one hundred and sixty percent
when he took office to around thirty percent now has
helped decrease the poverty rate by ten percentage points to
thirty two percent. But experts say the middle class is
born the brunt of his austerity program, with sharp increases
and utility bills, school fees, and healthcare costs forcing many
(02:51):
households to scale back spending. I'm just gonna say, what
middle class. I'm sorry, if you are in a country
with a one hundred and sixty percent annual rate of
inflation and a forty two percent poverty level, what middle class?
What they're describing as basically government workers who lost their jobs. Now,
(03:12):
I'm not saying government workers are never necessary. I'm not
saying they don't do hard work at times, but they
don't generate prosperity because the government doesn't create wealth anyway.
The time has continued on how some of Malay's even
some of Malay's closest allies and supporters were turning on him,
and there was a lot of uncertainty. Well, the results
(03:34):
came in and Malay's party it's called La Libertade Avanza.
You know, guys, how well I do at pronouncing things,
So I believe that that was correct. La Libertad Avanza
absolutely romped the competition. They won forty one percent of
the vote, eight points ahead of the nearest competitor. I
need to give a little credit where it's due the
(03:56):
polster Atlas Intel, which was rated as the most accurate
polster the twenty twenty four US presidential election. They were
the only ones to get this election correct, I mean,
and even close to correct. The country is very tough
to poll, but they said Malay's party would win by
six and he won by eight, which is in the
margin of error, and so credit to them where it's due.
(04:18):
I think I've heard that they have polling being done
in Virginia and New Jersey, which will probably be the
last major polster to look at either state before they
are elections next week, so that will be interesting. Hopefully
that will be out before the Thursday show and definitely
be out of course before next week's show, which was
the last day before the election, so I'll be able
(04:40):
to cover what they found. But I mean, Atlas Intel
is no joke. They really have done solid work on
the international front. There's also one other major election that
I want everyone to know about, and that's in the Netherlands.
The Dutch are holding a parliamentary election this week on Wednesday,
which I'm going to try to cover on Thursday. Why
(05:01):
does it matter. I mean, the Netherlands is a small
country in Europe. It's not, you know, a major woral power.
Because in twenty twenty three when they have their last election,
the national populist party founded by gets villagers called the
Freedom Party came in a shocking first place, and the
other center right parties but first of step, like exept back,
(05:23):
the Netherlands has like one hundred and fifty parties right there,
everyone starts a party in the otherland's like what are
you doing this week? You're starting a political party. And
because there are so many parties and they give proportional representation,
I think if you get over three percent or four percent,
you get a seat in parliament. So virtually everyone gets
a seat in parliament. It's the biggest participation trophy in
(05:46):
the Western world. And they because it happens though, you
need to build coalitions, right, there's no majority party of
a singular No singular party gets a majority, so you
have to have a coalition. Solders formed a coalition with
the other center right parties. But they didn't want him
(06:06):
to be prime minister. They're like, no, you're too extreme.
Fielders has been in Parliament for a very long time.
I think he's the longest serving member of Parliament. So
he conceded not to be Prime minister so long as
he got his way on strict immigration enforcement and strict
immigration reforms. They broke their promises, so he left his parties.
(06:27):
Party left the government, which forced the government to dissolve.
They didn't have the votes to be a majority anymore.
Now voters do. This is true in America, this is
true in Europe, this is true all over the world.
Voters do not like political instability. They punish parties that
create political instability. But they are also deeply unhappy with
the state of immigration and the current levels immigration in
(06:49):
the country. So what are they going to do? Pole
suggests that Builder's Party will still come in first place,
but they will likely have a tougher time finishing this
election like they finished the last election. Like they're gonna
lose seats. That's what the poll suggests. But also the
polls were very wrong the last time. No one predicted
(07:10):
they would do as well as they did last time.
So I mean, we're gonna have to wait until Thursday
to really get our head around how the results shake out.
But this could mean a referendum on national populism in Europe,
like they're not ready to govern. Maloney, is you know
a unicorn and you cannot invest. I'll tell Brits and
(07:30):
Frenchmen and Germans you cannot invest in La Penn's party,
now Bardella's party, or Nigel Faraj or the AfD because
you can see in the otherlands that they cannot govern.
It's very interesting they're going to try to make this
referendum of national populism and saying it's all just a
flash in the pan, so worth paying attention to when
it comes out on Wednesday. Okay, now let's talk about
(07:53):
this country. We have some election turnout results. Now these
are not polls. This is how people are actually showing
up in the early vote. Some early patterns are starting
to emerge across the country. Let's start with New Jersey.
New Jersey is redder than it was in twenty twenty one,
(08:14):
but bluer than it was in twenty twenty four. Now, now,
that doesn't seem to make much sensible and explain. In
twenty twenty one, early voting was kind of new. Early
in person voting was not had not been established as
long as it had in other places as it had
in New Jersey. So New Jersey voter Democrats had a
sixteen point margin in who showed up in the first
(08:38):
day of early voting. This year, their first day, they
only had a three point margin. That three point margin, though,
is still better than it was for Democrats in twenty
twenty four, where they only had a one point margins.
You see, I'm saying Republicans are worse than they were
in twenty twenty four when a lot of people showed up,
but better than they were in twenty twenty one, when
no one showed up. Overall, sixty eight thousand, six hundred
(09:00):
and sixty five Democrats in sixty three thousand, one hundred
and seventy Republicans voted in person in the first two
days of early voting. Between mail in voting, which has
been going on for weeks and early person voting. Democrats
are going into the last week of this election with
about two hundred thousand raw vote lead. They've delivered two
(09:23):
hundred thousand more ballots than Republicans. Is that impossible to overcome?
Not necessarily. Remember there's over one point five million more
Republicans who can cast a ballot that haven't, and we'll
see how the independent vote splits. But Republicans are starting
off this election about five points behind where they started
in twenty twenty four and about ten points behind where
(09:45):
they need to be. There are some places that are
showing up, you know, like gangbusters for Republicans. Middletown Township
is voting like mad for the GOP. But those of
the exceptions and not the rules I must. I might
also make a note that Republicans are showing up decently well,
and it's important critical swing state legislative districts now. The
(10:05):
only silver lining for Republicans in New Jersey right now
is that voter enthusiasm is not even across the Democratic Party.
You're seeing high turnout among white college educated areas, including
Mikey Cheryl's home district over in Ocean County, which is
the reddest county in New Jersey. Democrats have about eighty
(10:26):
percent of their overall early vote numbers from twenty twenty four.
Republicans are about seventy percent. In minority heavy districts, especially
black majority districts, turnout has not been exceptional, though. What
does this mean. It means that there's a there's I mean,
for all the enthusiasm that pollsters said jection really had
(10:50):
going into this election, maybe they're just waiting for election day.
But the fact that they're going to purchase so many
people on election day because they didn't bank their vote
early cause is cost for concern It's costs for concerned Republicans.
They're going to have to spend a lot more time
and more money on election day making sure Republicans show up.
They can win with two hundred thousand votes, but if
(11:13):
it gets like two hundred and fifty two hundred and
eighty three hundred thousand Democrat vote advantage, that's going to
be tough to overcome. I mean, the early vote might
make it such a place that it's over before began.
For Jack Chitarelli. Republicans really need to extremely, extremely maximize
their early vote and bank those votes, which they happen
(11:36):
so far. Over in Virginia, things are looking better for
Democrats as well Fairfax County, which is a Democratic stronghold.
Now remember Virginia no party registration, so we're talking about
past electoral performances. Fairfax is a reliably strong Democratic area.
They had a gangbuster weekend on Saturday. They were ninety
(11:57):
one percent of their twenty twenty five or turnout. This
is not news you want to hear if you're win
some series, but most importantly if you're Jason Miarz, who
of the three statewide Republicans running has the best chance
of winning. I'm gonna bring up the silver lining again
though for Miaras, because I mean, I think it's basically
over for winsome Seares, but lestering of the election for Miaras.
(12:22):
Like New Jersey, a lot of black majority areas are
showing low participation so far. The area is on Norfolk,
Roanoke City, and New important News. These are critical races,
not just for state wide races, but and state legislative races,
but specific because these are black areas. These are areas
that more than likely would not leave Jay Jones without
(12:45):
a check next to his name on the ballot. Right,
there may be some college educated areas that say, you
know what, Jay Jones's comments about killing opponents and murdering children,
it's just too much for me. I can't vote for
Jason Ras. But I'm just going to skip the line.
I'm not going to vote for anybody. I'm gonna leave
my conscious for. You're probably not going to see as
much of that in the black areas, black majority areas.
J Jones is the only black candidate running on the
(13:07):
Democratic ticket this year, so the fact that they have
low turnout says quite a bit. Actually, and if Miara
has managed to pull out a sweaker, as some polls suggests,
it is because turnout in black, working class, black areas
is pretty low. I want to briefly dive into the
California and New York City election. Over in California, Democrats
(13:30):
have been dominating in the returning ballads. Remember, California has
universal mail in ballots, so everyone gets a ballid. California
has received more than two million ballids so far returned.
They voted over two million, and Democrats have dominated with
fifty one percent of all ballots are turned, while Republicans
have been lagging. Democrats have a nineteen point voter registration
(13:52):
margin and a twenty two percent return margin. So ideally
you would like to see that Republican turner is so
high that the Democratic margin of nineteen points is down
to sixteen or fifteen, but it's actually going up, especially
after the No Kings rally. Democrats really have returned the
ballots in high high levels to redistrict Republicans. Basically that
(14:14):
out of existence in that state. Over in New York City,
which releases New York City votes, registers people by party,
but they don't release the party registration in the early vote.
They release it by burrow. Manhattan and Brooklyn are leading
the way, while Staddn Island and the Bronx are lagging behind.
That's not good news for Andrew Cuomo. Here's the thing
about New York City, and next segment is only all
(14:38):
about New York. Early voting only started a couple of
years ago. New York didn't have early voting in personally
voting for like most of my life, so Back in
twenty twenty one, there was very, very little impersonally voting,
so you're going to hear a lot of new stories
about explosive returns compared to twenty twenty one. In twenty
twenty one, it was so new, very few people did it. Now.
(15:01):
The Gotham has put out an interesting article about the
election so far. So far, in the first two days
of early in person voting, one hundred and sixty four thousand,
one hundred and ninety New Yorker's return to vote. They
turned up to vote rather over the weekend. Voters over
the age of fifty five made up fifty percent of them.
The electorate was a lot older, significantly older than the
(15:25):
primary that gave Mandanni his victory. Voters among voters between
the ages of twenty five to thirty four made up
only sixteen percent of the early vote the first weekend.
That's down nine points from where it was in the primary.
At this point, the primary, voters between the ages of
twenty five and thirty four were the largest single group
(15:47):
of people casting ballots. Now they're in a pretty distant
third place. Furthermore, voters between the ages of eighteen and
twenty four cast in the primary, they cast but half
as many ballots as vote over the age of seventy five.
In so far in the general, voters over the age
seventy five have cast three times as many ballads as
(16:08):
voters under the age of twenty four, So that's a
mix back. I mean, where the votes are coming from
is very favorable to Mandanni. The age of the voters
is very favorable to Cuomo. We won't know. I mean,
it's Democrats, so it's all I mean, it depends on
how they're splitting. Puomo was seeing some of his strongest areas,
like the Upper East and Upper West Side, coming out
with big numbers, but other places like heavily black, heavily
(16:32):
Latino districts in the Bronx and in Western Queens are
sorry Eastern Queens rather are just not showing up. The
South Bronx has a tenth one tenth of the showing
as the Upper East Side of Manhattan, and they have
purported they've equal populations. It's been done by Assembly district,
which is population wise, so the college educated white vote
(16:54):
turning out big, big numbers, probably both for Mandanni and
for Cuomo. The minor areas that Cuomo really needs he
is lagging pretty significantly. And this is what you're seeing
in New Jersey, this is what you're seeing in Virginia,
this is what you're seeing in probably California. Working class
voters are not excited about this election. And if it's
(17:17):
a question because Trump's name isn't on the ballot, Trump's
name is likely never going to be on the ballot again.
That's a problem for Republicans. It also is a problem
for Democrats when you look at the black vote. The
fact that the black vote is down in all three
states from where they hoped it would be maybe gives
Democrats a little heartburn, a tiny bit of heartburn from
(17:38):
the hopes that they had of Cuomo pulling an upset
or for New Jersey being closer than they projected. They
want to make sure the black vote shows up, and
so far it hasn't. So that's the trend. In all
three states. College educated, especially white, older voters up in
big numbers. The No Kings group are showing up. Democrats
are showing up, but working class people, especially blacks, are not.
(18:02):
And Republicans have a lot of catching up to do
if they want to be competitive in New Jersey, if
they want to save Jason Miaras in Virginia. If they
want to make New California's election competitive, and you know,
make sure Man Donnie Say is under fifty percent of
the vote and possibly Quomo pulls up and upset. They
need to start showing up and showing up very very soon.
(18:22):
Next up, I want to talk to you guys about
the mayor's race because I've been thinking about it, and
you know what, Curtis Lee what and Andrew Cuomo, they
have both fumbled royally and in my opinion, neither one
deserves to win. And I'm going to talk about that
coming up next. Okay, So I have been thinking about
the New Year's mayors race. I'm from New York. If
(18:44):
you guys couldn't tell that by basically every everything about me,
I there's a reason I can't pronount my ours. And
it's not because I have a lisp. I I but
I'm from New York my whole life. My fans been
New York for generations, and the thought of Mendonnie winning
is horrifying. He is a failed theater kid, the most
(19:04):
annoying people on the planet, and I would love nothing
more than to wake up after election day and say
Mandani lost, but Cuomo and Curtius ly what do not
deserve to win? And I wrote about this for my
National Populist newsletter, and I want to talk to you
guys about it. The disgrace former Governor Andrew Cuomo believed
(19:26):
he had this election in the bag from the start.
And other Democrats capable Democrats who are managerial, I don't
want to say moderate, but they're managerial. They can manage
a city. They stayed out of the race because Cuomo
was supposed to enter it. Catherine Gonzalez, who's not my
favorite personal world I don't know if she'd be the
best mayor, but she's cable of managing a city. I
(19:48):
believe she never ran because Cuomo had this thing locked up.
And the truth is, as I thought about it, Andrew
Cuomo has never faced a tough election in his entire life.
His only competitive primary was in the two thousand and
six race for Attorney General, where he faced a kind
of a lazy New York politician named Mark Green, who
(20:09):
he beat by over twenty points, and he was handed
the gouvnatorial nomination on a silver platter. Democrats didn't challenge
him the first time, and when they did challenge him
for his subsequent reelections, he beat his opponents by thirty points.
His closest election to a Republican, which was in twenty fourteen,
he won by fourteen points. So Cuoma was able to
build a narrative that he was his tough on nails,
(20:32):
hard political animal who was a know Italian and he
was like, you know, mom, boss, he was going to
run you through, he was going to exhaust you. And
really what he was his whole time is this NEPO
baby who was easily intimidated by progressives and centrist alike.
He didn't run for president, which he talked about to
(20:52):
his advisors and they repeated to everybody, everybody in this town,
I was a northern president. He didn't run, though, because
he was afraid of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden to
quote unquote moderate Democrats. They're not in the far left.
And despite beating progresses in every primary race, he consistently
moved to the left on policy and endorsed their candidates
down ballid because he was wanting to win them all
(21:15):
because he was afraid of a challenge. Instead of saying,
screw you, I'm going to destroy your field, I'm gonna
I'm gonna make the threshold to make an official party,
which is what he could do, and he did a
little bit basically the Ouse the Working Family Party. He
didn't do that for decades. Andrew Cuomo was the governor
with no clothes. And it took Zoramndani to point out
that his ask for showing I mean, it's crazy. So
(21:38):
it comes at a surprise when you hear about it,
but not at a surprise when you think about it
that at sixty seven he's incapable of doing doing something
he's never done before, which is campaigning. I mean, it's
really shocking how he's dropped the ball a most basic
campaign strategies, like buying oppos position research. I don't know
(21:58):
if he didn't do it, but I highly doubt that.
We're just hear him at all the Zoran stuff for
the first time weeks before the election. Had he bought it,
he would have blasted that. And he's always thought that
he could make this election a winning election for him
if it was a two man race, if it was
just him versus Zoran, that required Eric Adams and Curtis
(22:19):
Lye would drop out, meaning he would need Republicans to
vote for him. That's the thing with Curtis. He has
the Republican line, and he thought Cuomo thought that he
could be he could gain that Republican support by just
not being Zora. Here's the crazy about Andrew Quillman. And
I know this is hard to believe if you're not
(22:39):
a New Yorker, and if you're not someone with a
long memory. Andrew Quoma, when he first ran for governor,
cast himself as the man who could work across the
out Remember in twenty ten when he first ran, Republicans
controlled the New York State Senate. He had to work
with Republicans, and he delivered on things like property tax
freezes and tax cuts first all businesses that they that
(23:01):
they advanced, while delivering things like gay marriage legalization for Democrats.
Then come twenty eighteen when they had the progressive wave
and Cynthia Nixon challenging him, and Cuomo abandoned everything, every
moderate position he possibly had out the window. And then
COVID happened, and forget about it. He was like a
straight dictator. He went completely crazy. But that old, that
(23:27):
sense memory for that Cuomo who could be a man
for all seasons, a man for all people, a man
who work across the aisle. It hasn't re emerged that
whole get back on the bicycle. Andrew Quimo just never
showed up. And Republicans in New York City, they're starving
for victories, right, they would take crumbs from Andrew Cuomo.
So if he sat there and said, Hey, Republicans in
(23:49):
New York City, I will indorse your city council candidates
running for reelection. I will endorse the Common Sense Coalition,
which is a bipartisan group of Democrats and Republicans who
support things like tough on crime laws and specialize high schools.
He could have he could have acknowledged mistakes he made
during COVID or apologize for the fact that he said
(24:12):
pro lifers don't belong in New York State. He could
have done anything, and he did nothing. He thought, Hey,
I am not Zoron and that will be enough for Republicans.
And he's learning the hard way that that is not true.
That Republicans need something for you to vote for them,
not just vote against somebody. And I just think that
(24:35):
maybe Antrecuin was never a talented politician. Maybe he just
happened to have a D behind his name in a
state that elects Democrats except when the moon is full
and health freezes over, which in New York happens every
thirty to forty years. And you know, I've been part
of losing campaigns. They suck. It's it's awful to be
part of a losing campaign. But Cuomo is going to
(24:55):
end this campaign not saying, hey, I left it all
on the field. Everything I could he's got. He's gonna
lose his campaign without even putting his cleats on. He
could have done so much more. So on that front,
he deserves to lose. He won one hundred percent. Deserves
to lose. Now. Curtis leew on the other hand, also
deserves to lose because having worked in Republican politics for
(25:18):
as long as I have, especially in New York City,
you it's a very small circle. You know. I've met
Curtis a bunch of times, starting in twenty twenty, I
think with the first time that he ran, where he
earned just twenty eight percent of the vote. Now, since
that last election in twenty twenty one, he never really
stopped running for mayor. He's been running for five years.
But despite running for half a decade with the full
(25:40):
back end that gup. He had no primary challenge, right,
and he's been running in a state that has substantially
moved towards Republicans in the subsequent last three presidential elections.
Think of this. In twenty sixteen, Trump in New York
City got seventeen percent of the vote, In twenty twenty
he got twenty two point seven percent of the vote,
and in twenty twenty four he got thirty point five
(26:02):
percent of vosts. So he went from seventeen to almost
thirty one. So despite Curtis running in a state, in
a city that is moving substantially to the right, running
for five years longer than anybody else is running, he
only cracked twenty percent in two poles out of the
dozens taken since May. And you know that's not right
(26:24):
or fair or you know, I'm not saying that. You know,
poles are everything, but for many New Yorkers, whether they
are right or wrong, and it Curtis Leewal comes off cartoonish.
He's got the Braton and he's has the accent of
a New York, of a bygone era, a New York
that I love, but a New York of a bygun era. Nonetheless,
and it's tough to hear, but he never did the
(26:48):
things you would need to do to start cracking into
the twenties or thirties and really gaining traction. Sleetwa has said,
and I have independently confirmed that he was offered ten
million dollars to drop out of the race and promised
millions in seed money to build an international security business
for the Guardian Angels. He turned all that down. He
(27:12):
turned down the idea of having generational wealth for his children,
security for himself, all for this doomed race. What he
should have done was not only in my opinion, I
accept that, but he should have sat there and said,
I will do this if you secure more promises for
(27:34):
Republicans running for office. Get Cuomo and his allies and
the unions and his big money allies to poor money
for Republican candidates running for city council and for local
office in the city. Give them a fighting chance. For
the first time ever, Republicans running for council are constantly
looked down upon and constantly ignored, and there's a real
(27:57):
opportunity for Republicans to make gains this year. There's at
least three seats I can think of, and actually, for
Republicans actually had a real party mode moving, they'd have
a chance probably have five seats in the city Council
and those would be people to push back against Mandani
if he were to become mayor, which he likely is right,
So he could have actually used his immense leverage to
(28:19):
help the city's GOP instead of making it about himself.
He could have passed the baton onto a dozen Republicans
running for a local office. Given the Republican county parties,
which are functionally have very little money, real money, he
could have made all these deals and instead he's saying
(28:39):
he stick with his integrity, which that's great, but your
integrity plus two dollars ninety cents will get you on
the subway in New York. Right, this leverage he could
have built for Republicans is probably a one time thing
and he threw it all away. And that, as a
consultant makes my blood boil. It just makes my blood boil.
(29:00):
They want better for the Republican Party of New York
City than their nominee for mayor that wants for them,
and that's what's tragic. Okay, on to Ask Me Anything
that's coming up next. Now it's time for the Ask
Me Anything. If you guys want part of the Ask
Me Anything segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com.
(29:22):
That's Ryan at numbers Plural gamepodcast dot com. Love getting
these questions. I have a ton to go through, so
I'm going to do too today. First question comes from Tristan.
He would love to hear some talk about the VRA
Section two, possibly, you know, because they have the Scotus
decision coming out about it and their hearing is about it.
What let me go into So Section two of the
Voting Rights Act, which was of nineteen sixty five, prohibits
(29:45):
they quote voting qualifications or pre records it to vote,
or standard practice or procedure by a state or political
subdivision that results in a denial or abridgment of the
right of any citizen to vote on account of race
or color. Importantly, in nineteen eighty two, Congress amended section
two to eliminate the requirement approving discriminatory intent in many
(30:10):
cases and instead allows suits based on discrimination effect right
the vote dilusion. So even if the intent is not there,
but the result is explicitly discriminatory in practice, then therefore
it's against the Section two of the Voting Rights Act,
and that's the part that is being challenged. The law
(30:31):
allows challenges based on effect, not just in, which raises
questions about how it's grounded in the Constitution via the
fourteenth and fifteenth Amendment. The Louisiana versus Callias case, which
is the one that Supreme Court is hearing right now,
sets the reargument or whether Section to itself remains constitutional
because of those changes. In a redistricting contest, some justices
(30:53):
have signaled openness to narrowing Section two scope, for example,
limiting to how long race content districting can continue. Courts
use the totality of circumstances tests guided by a set
of factors sometimes called the Senate factors, including history, discrimination
or racial polarization, or whether a minority candidates have been elected.
(31:14):
There's a debate really whether Section two allows for claims
purely under the intent theory and only under a result theory.
I e. Like the results is discriminatory because a Democrat
wasn't elected. That's a really big part of it. I
think it looks like the Supreme Court is going to
(31:38):
at least at the very least limit of the Voting
Rights Act. So that may may say, hey, in the
redistricting of Louisiana and Alabama, the two black majority districts
drawn for Democrats because they have to be drawn so
Democrats can win, is unconstitutional. They should be stricken down.
(31:59):
And in the future redistricting guidelines are like this, and
if they go full ham, they may sit there and
say the VRA Section two is entirely unconstitutional. At this point,
you know, it maybe had an attent back in the
nineteen sixties. America's demographics are not like they were in
the nineteen sixties. Therefore, strike the whole thing down. If
(32:21):
the whole thing is struck down, Republicans in the South
and the Deep South especially are going to go on
a binge redistricting and it would result in Republicans gaining
probably twelve to fourteen more seats. Right, they could redistrict Memphis,
they could redistrict Alabama and Louisiana. They can redistrict all
(32:42):
the blue states in Mississippi the one blue SA Mississippi,
but Georgia and in Florida. There's just a lot on
the table there. If they strike this down, which I
mean We'll see if they do or not. But that's
really what it's about. It's about the fact that is
their intent. If there's no intent involved with indiscrimination, does
the law still stand? Okay? Next question comes from Frank.
(33:04):
He says, Hi, Ryan, I have a question of immigration
I've wondered about for a long time. I've heard before
the significant portion, maybe even most, of illegal aliens in
the US are people overstay their visa. I've driven to
Canada before, and I believe I got some sort of
permission at the border to cross over. I'm not sure
that's considered a visa. It's not considered a visa. I
assume that we do that for people who drive up
(33:24):
from Mexico. We do do that for people who drive
up from Mexico. If a Mexican drove to the US
told the border agent that he'd be here for a weekend,
then stay for ten years, woulut being considered a visa overstay. Now,
like you're talking about truck drivers, they usually have a
trucking license that they are permitted with. That's not a
visa overstay, and they rarely, by the way, overstay their visas.
(33:46):
They sometimes bring illegals into their trucks, but they don't
overstay their visas much. Liberals wind about visa overstays as
if they have genuine doctors who just forgot to renew
their student visas after graduating from Harvard. But I wondered,
what truly, just what? What are truly just visitors who
never go back? Okay, So mainly overstate visas are people
who come in through either tourist visas, business student visas,
(34:09):
or exchange visas or temporary work visas. Right, those are
the ones, those are the big ones. Tourist visas are
a lot of them. People who say they're going to
be here for a week to tour and then they
just never go back. Nearly forty percent of all illegal
immigrants who came in twenty twenty three are visas over stays,
so about five hundred thousand. The largest the largest countries
(34:33):
come from outside of Latin America. When you hear what
people being crossed up to the border, those are mostly
Latin American and Mexican immigrants. Those are not everybody. Some
places like India, for example, have a lot of these overstates.
I think nineteen thousand number seventh overall. So in twenty
twenty three, which is the last numbers that I have.
They are about five hundred thousand people who were visa
(34:55):
overstates and about eight hundred and sixty thousand who cross
the border. That means four in ten all of new
illegal immigrants are visa overstays. As I said, you know,
India ranks number seven, but they're not and it's the
highest non Latin American or Caribbean country that is visa
over stays the over But it's funny which countries have
(35:19):
dispropart portionnately a large percentage of visa overstays. So the
number one country for visa over stays actually is the
nation of Chad over in Africa. Almost fifty percent people
who get a visa to the United States from Chad
across the will become overstays. Countries like Equatorial Guinea is
thirty three percent, Manamar is thirty three percent, Haiti is
thirty one percent, Congo is twenty nine percent, Sudan is
(35:43):
twenty five percent. Countries that you would think of, like
with large illegal alien populations like Mexico. Mexico's only one
and a half percent of their illegal populations visa overstates.
It's most people who come across the border, so that's
really the difference. So no, it's not a majority of
people who are here illegally. Is a very very very
high percentage. I think at one point in the oughts
(36:06):
it was a majority, but it was very briefly and
then under Biden, of course, that completely changed. The new
visa overstays though, are a significant portion of forty percent,
and they are mostly Taurus student or business visas that
were not renewed. Anyway, thank you for listening to the show.
I hope you got a lot out of it. I
will be back on Thursday. Check out that episode. And
(36:28):
if you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on
the iHeartRadio app. Have a podcast wherever you get your
podcast
Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gerdusky. It
is Monday, October twenty seventh, twenty twenty five. We are
just eight days away from the off year local elections.
I feel like we've been talking about this for eight
years at this point, so it's finally the last week
of the election. Make sure you plank a plan. I
go out and vote. I promise you, no matter if
you think that you don't live in Virginia or New Jersey,
(00:23):
there's local elections happening across the entire country. So figure
out who's running, get out and show up and go vote,
especially for school boards. We have a lot of school
board candidates in my pack running this year. I spent
a lot of time thinking about the New York mayoral race,
which I'll have more about at the end of the
show before I talk to you about the rest of
(00:44):
the country and the country as a whole. But I
want to actually spend a second to talk about some
races that have happened overseas because I think they're important.
They're important for an American context. First, in Argentina, they
had their first national election since pre Javier Malay, the
radical libertarian as the New York Times called him won
(01:05):
the presidency in twenty twenty three. This is basically their
version of the mid terms. Now. Polls show that this
was going to be a tight race. Most polls estimate
that Malay's party would be over or under about two points.
And it's funny. Over the weekend, the New York Times
covered this election and basically made it a referendum not
(01:25):
only about free market and economics and capitalism and libertarianism,
but also about Trump because everything has to be able
Trump all the time, and really about the rise of
populism across the West, because the Trump administration just gave
Argentina billions of dollars and people are saying that that's
not America first, or you know whatnot are asking questions
(01:46):
of whether that's legitimate given how much he spent cut
and spending from other countries over the seas. So remember,
going to the last presidential election, Argentina was in an
absolute state of decline. I believe that it had the
worst economy of any white majority country in the world.
But the funniest thing is that the way that the
(02:06):
Times describe Malay's government was they were like, it's a
disaster Malay. Now, listen, Malay has done a lot of
economic reforms because Argentina has has basically been a socialist
country since the time of perone and when describing the
state of Argentina's economy and a president of Malay the
time is rites quote mister Malay's effort to reduce inflation
(02:29):
from the annual rate of one hundred and sixty percent
when he took office to around thirty percent now has
helped decrease the poverty rate by ten percentage points to
thirty two percent. But experts say the middle class is
born the brunt of his austerity program, with sharp increases
and utility bills, school fees, and healthcare costs forcing many
(02:51):
households to scale back spending. I'm just gonna say, what
middle class. I'm sorry, if you are in a country
with a one hundred and sixty percent annual rate of
inflation and a forty two percent poverty level, what middle class?
What they're describing as basically government workers who lost their jobs. Now,
(03:12):
I'm not saying government workers are never necessary. I'm not
saying they don't do hard work at times, but they
don't generate prosperity because the government doesn't create wealth anyway.
The time has continued on how some of Malay's even
some of Malay's closest allies and supporters were turning on him,
and there was a lot of uncertainty. Well, the results
(03:34):
came in and Malay's party it's called La Libertade Avanza.
You know, guys, how well I do at pronouncing things,
So I believe that that was correct. La Libertad Avanza
absolutely romped the competition. They won forty one percent of
the vote, eight points ahead of the nearest competitor. I
need to give a little credit where it's due the
(03:56):
polster Atlas Intel, which was rated as the most accurate
polster the twenty twenty four US presidential election. They were
the only ones to get this election correct, I mean,
and even close to correct. The country is very tough
to poll, but they said Malay's party would win by
six and he won by eight, which is in the
margin of error, and so credit to them where it's due.
(04:18):
I think I've heard that they have polling being done
in Virginia and New Jersey, which will probably be the
last major polster to look at either state before they
are elections next week, so that will be interesting. Hopefully
that will be out before the Thursday show and definitely
be out of course before next week's show, which was
the last day before the election, so I'll be able
(04:40):
to cover what they found. But I mean, Atlas Intel
is no joke. They really have done solid work on
the international front. There's also one other major election that
I want everyone to know about, and that's in the Netherlands.
The Dutch are holding a parliamentary election this week on Wednesday,
which I'm going to try to cover on Thursday. Why
(05:01):
does it matter. I mean, the Netherlands is a small
country in Europe. It's not, you know, a major woral power.
Because in twenty twenty three when they have their last election,
the national populist party founded by gets villagers called the
Freedom Party came in a shocking first place, and the
other center right parties but first of step, like exept back,
(05:23):
the Netherlands has like one hundred and fifty parties right there,
everyone starts a party in the otherland's like what are
you doing this week? You're starting a political party. And
because there are so many parties and they give proportional representation,
I think if you get over three percent or four percent,
you get a seat in parliament. So virtually everyone gets
a seat in parliament. It's the biggest participation trophy in
(05:46):
the Western world. And they because it happens though, you
need to build coalitions, right, there's no majority party of
a singular No singular party gets a majority, so you
have to have a coalition. Solders formed a coalition with
the other center right parties. But they didn't want him
(06:06):
to be prime minister. They're like, no, you're too extreme.
Fielders has been in Parliament for a very long time.
I think he's the longest serving member of Parliament. So
he conceded not to be Prime minister so long as
he got his way on strict immigration enforcement and strict
immigration reforms. They broke their promises, so he left his parties.
(06:27):
Party left the government, which forced the government to dissolve.
They didn't have the votes to be a majority anymore.
Now voters do. This is true in America, this is
true in Europe, this is true all over the world.
Voters do not like political instability. They punish parties that
create political instability. But they are also deeply unhappy with
the state of immigration and the current levels immigration in
(06:49):
the country. So what are they going to do? Pole
suggests that Builder's Party will still come in first place,
but they will likely have a tougher time finishing this
election like they finished the last election. Like they're gonna
lose seats. That's what the poll suggests. But also the
polls were very wrong the last time. No one predicted
(07:10):
they would do as well as they did last time.
So I mean, we're gonna have to wait until Thursday
to really get our head around how the results shake out.
But this could mean a referendum on national populism in Europe,
like they're not ready to govern. Maloney, is you know
a unicorn and you cannot invest. I'll tell Brits and
(07:30):
Frenchmen and Germans you cannot invest in La Penn's party,
now Bardella's party, or Nigel Faraj or the AfD because
you can see in the otherlands that they cannot govern.
It's very interesting they're going to try to make this
referendum of national populism and saying it's all just a
flash in the pan, so worth paying attention to when
it comes out on Wednesday. Okay, now let's talk about
(07:53):
this country. We have some election turnout results. Now these
are not polls. This is how people are actually showing
up in the early vote. Some early patterns are starting
to emerge across the country. Let's start with New Jersey.
New Jersey is redder than it was in twenty twenty one,
(08:14):
but bluer than it was in twenty twenty four. Now, now,
that doesn't seem to make much sensible and explain. In
twenty twenty one, early voting was kind of new. Early
in person voting was not had not been established as
long as it had in other places as it had
in New Jersey. So New Jersey voter Democrats had a
sixteen point margin in who showed up in the first
(08:38):
day of early voting. This year, their first day, they
only had a three point margin. That three point margin, though,
is still better than it was for Democrats in twenty
twenty four, where they only had a one point margins.
You see, I'm saying Republicans are worse than they were
in twenty twenty four when a lot of people showed up,
but better than they were in twenty twenty one, when
no one showed up. Overall, sixty eight thousand, six hundred
(09:00):
and sixty five Democrats in sixty three thousand, one hundred
and seventy Republicans voted in person in the first two
days of early voting. Between mail in voting, which has
been going on for weeks and early person voting. Democrats
are going into the last week of this election with
about two hundred thousand raw vote lead. They've delivered two
(09:23):
hundred thousand more ballots than Republicans. Is that impossible to overcome?
Not necessarily. Remember there's over one point five million more
Republicans who can cast a ballot that haven't, and we'll
see how the independent vote splits. But Republicans are starting
off this election about five points behind where they started
in twenty twenty four and about ten points behind where
(09:45):
they need to be. There are some places that are
showing up, you know, like gangbusters for Republicans. Middletown Township
is voting like mad for the GOP. But those of
the exceptions and not the rules I must. I might
also make a note that Republicans are showing up decently well,
and it's important critical swing state legislative districts now. The
(10:05):
only silver lining for Republicans in New Jersey right now
is that voter enthusiasm is not even across the Democratic Party.
You're seeing high turnout among white college educated areas, including
Mikey Cheryl's home district over in Ocean County, which is
the reddest county in New Jersey. Democrats have about eighty
(10:26):
percent of their overall early vote numbers from twenty twenty four.
Republicans are about seventy percent. In minority heavy districts, especially
black majority districts, turnout has not been exceptional, though. What
does this mean. It means that there's a there's I mean,
for all the enthusiasm that pollsters said jection really had
(10:50):
going into this election, maybe they're just waiting for election day.
But the fact that they're going to purchase so many
people on election day because they didn't bank their vote
early cause is cost for concern It's costs for concerned Republicans.
They're going to have to spend a lot more time
and more money on election day making sure Republicans show up.
They can win with two hundred thousand votes, but if
(11:13):
it gets like two hundred and fifty two hundred and
eighty three hundred thousand Democrat vote advantage, that's going to
be tough to overcome. I mean, the early vote might
make it such a place that it's over before began.
For Jack Chitarelli. Republicans really need to extremely, extremely maximize
their early vote and bank those votes, which they happen
(11:36):
so far. Over in Virginia, things are looking better for
Democrats as well Fairfax County, which is a Democratic stronghold.
Now remember Virginia no party registration, so we're talking about
past electoral performances. Fairfax is a reliably strong Democratic area.
They had a gangbuster weekend on Saturday. They were ninety
(11:57):
one percent of their twenty twenty five or turnout. This
is not news you want to hear if you're win
some series, but most importantly if you're Jason Miarz, who
of the three statewide Republicans running has the best chance
of winning. I'm gonna bring up the silver lining again
though for Miaras, because I mean, I think it's basically
over for winsome Seares, but lestering of the election for Miaras.
(12:22):
Like New Jersey, a lot of black majority areas are
showing low participation so far. The area is on Norfolk,
Roanoke City, and New important News. These are critical races,
not just for state wide races, but and state legislative races,
but specific because these are black areas. These are areas
that more than likely would not leave Jay Jones without
(12:45):
a check next to his name on the ballot. Right,
there may be some college educated areas that say, you
know what, Jay Jones's comments about killing opponents and murdering children,
it's just too much for me. I can't vote for
Jason Ras. But I'm just going to skip the line.
I'm not going to vote for anybody. I'm gonna leave
my conscious for. You're probably not going to see as
much of that in the black areas, black majority areas.
J Jones is the only black candidate running on the
(13:07):
Democratic ticket this year, so the fact that they have
low turnout says quite a bit. Actually, and if Miara
has managed to pull out a sweaker, as some polls suggests,
it is because turnout in black, working class, black areas
is pretty low. I want to briefly dive into the
California and New York City election. Over in California, Democrats
(13:30):
have been dominating in the returning ballads. Remember, California has
universal mail in ballots, so everyone gets a ballid. California
has received more than two million ballids so far returned.
They voted over two million, and Democrats have dominated with
fifty one percent of all ballots are turned, while Republicans
have been lagging. Democrats have a nineteen point voter registration
(13:52):
margin and a twenty two percent return margin. So ideally
you would like to see that Republican turner is so
high that the Democratic margin of nineteen points is down
to sixteen or fifteen, but it's actually going up, especially
after the No Kings rally. Democrats really have returned the
ballots in high high levels to redistrict Republicans. Basically that
(14:14):
out of existence in that state. Over in New York City,
which releases New York City votes, registers people by party,
but they don't release the party registration in the early vote.
They release it by burrow. Manhattan and Brooklyn are leading
the way, while Staddn Island and the Bronx are lagging behind.
That's not good news for Andrew Cuomo. Here's the thing
about New York City, and next segment is only all
(14:38):
about New York. Early voting only started a couple of
years ago. New York didn't have early voting in personally
voting for like most of my life, so Back in
twenty twenty one, there was very, very little impersonally voting,
so you're going to hear a lot of new stories
about explosive returns compared to twenty twenty one. In twenty
twenty one, it was so new, very few people did it. Now.
(15:01):
The Gotham has put out an interesting article about the
election so far. So far, in the first two days
of early in person voting, one hundred and sixty four thousand,
one hundred and ninety New Yorker's return to vote. They
turned up to vote rather over the weekend. Voters over
the age of fifty five made up fifty percent of them.
The electorate was a lot older, significantly older than the
(15:25):
primary that gave Mandanni his victory. Voters among voters between
the ages of twenty five to thirty four made up
only sixteen percent of the early vote the first weekend.
That's down nine points from where it was in the primary.
At this point, the primary, voters between the ages of
twenty five and thirty four were the largest single group
(15:47):
of people casting ballots. Now they're in a pretty distant
third place. Furthermore, voters between the ages of eighteen and
twenty four cast in the primary, they cast but half
as many ballots as vote over the age of seventy five.
In so far in the general, voters over the age
seventy five have cast three times as many ballads as
(16:08):
voters under the age of twenty four, So that's a
mix back. I mean, where the votes are coming from
is very favorable to Mandanni. The age of the voters
is very favorable to Cuomo. We won't know. I mean,
it's Democrats, so it's all I mean, it depends on
how they're splitting. Puomo was seeing some of his strongest areas,
like the Upper East and Upper West Side, coming out
with big numbers, but other places like heavily black, heavily
(16:32):
Latino districts in the Bronx and in Western Queens are
sorry Eastern Queens rather are just not showing up. The
South Bronx has a tenth one tenth of the showing
as the Upper East Side of Manhattan, and they have
purported they've equal populations. It's been done by Assembly district,
which is population wise, so the college educated white vote
(16:54):
turning out big, big numbers, probably both for Mandanni and
for Cuomo. The minor areas that Cuomo really needs he
is lagging pretty significantly. And this is what you're seeing
in New Jersey, this is what you're seeing in Virginia,
this is what you're seeing in probably California. Working class
voters are not excited about this election. And if it's
(17:17):
a question because Trump's name isn't on the ballot, Trump's
name is likely never going to be on the ballot again.
That's a problem for Republicans. It also is a problem
for Democrats when you look at the black vote. The
fact that the black vote is down in all three
states from where they hoped it would be maybe gives
Democrats a little heartburn, a tiny bit of heartburn from
(17:38):
the hopes that they had of Cuomo pulling an upset
or for New Jersey being closer than they projected. They
want to make sure the black vote shows up, and
so far it hasn't. So that's the trend. In all
three states. College educated, especially white, older voters up in
big numbers. The No Kings group are showing up. Democrats
are showing up, but working class people, especially blacks, are not.
(18:02):
And Republicans have a lot of catching up to do
if they want to be competitive in New Jersey, if
they want to save Jason Miaras in Virginia. If they
want to make New California's election competitive, and you know,
make sure Man Donnie Say is under fifty percent of
the vote and possibly Quomo pulls up and upset. They
need to start showing up and showing up very very soon.
(18:22):
Next up, I want to talk to you guys about
the mayor's race because I've been thinking about it, and
you know what, Curtis Lee what and Andrew Cuomo, they
have both fumbled royally and in my opinion, neither one
deserves to win. And I'm going to talk about that
coming up next. Okay, So I have been thinking about
the New Year's mayors race. I'm from New York. If
(18:44):
you guys couldn't tell that by basically every everything about me,
I there's a reason I can't pronount my ours. And
it's not because I have a lisp. I I but
I'm from New York my whole life. My fans been
New York for generations, and the thought of Mendonnie winning
is horrifying. He is a failed theater kid, the most
(19:04):
annoying people on the planet, and I would love nothing
more than to wake up after election day and say
Mandani lost, but Cuomo and Curtius ly what do not
deserve to win? And I wrote about this for my
National Populist newsletter, and I want to talk to you
guys about it. The disgrace former Governor Andrew Cuomo believed
(19:26):
he had this election in the bag from the start.
And other Democrats capable Democrats who are managerial, I don't
want to say moderate, but they're managerial. They can manage
a city. They stayed out of the race because Cuomo
was supposed to enter it. Catherine Gonzalez, who's not my
favorite personal world I don't know if she'd be the
best mayor, but she's cable of managing a city. I
(19:48):
believe she never ran because Cuomo had this thing locked up.
And the truth is, as I thought about it, Andrew
Cuomo has never faced a tough election in his entire life.
His only competitive primary was in the two thousand and
six race for Attorney General, where he faced a kind
of a lazy New York politician named Mark Green, who
(20:09):
he beat by over twenty points, and he was handed
the gouvnatorial nomination on a silver platter. Democrats didn't challenge
him the first time, and when they did challenge him
for his subsequent reelections, he beat his opponents by thirty points.
His closest election to a Republican, which was in twenty fourteen,
he won by fourteen points. So Cuoma was able to
build a narrative that he was his tough on nails,
(20:32):
hard political animal who was a know Italian and he
was like, you know, mom, boss, he was going to
run you through, he was going to exhaust you. And
really what he was his whole time is this NEPO
baby who was easily intimidated by progressives and centrist alike.
He didn't run for president, which he talked about to
(20:52):
his advisors and they repeated to everybody, everybody in this town,
I was a northern president. He didn't run, though, because
he was afraid of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden to
quote unquote moderate Democrats. They're not in the far left.
And despite beating progresses in every primary race, he consistently
moved to the left on policy and endorsed their candidates
down ballid because he was wanting to win them all
(21:15):
because he was afraid of a challenge. Instead of saying,
screw you, I'm going to destroy your field, I'm gonna
I'm gonna make the threshold to make an official party,
which is what he could do, and he did a
little bit basically the Ouse the Working Family Party. He
didn't do that for decades. Andrew Cuomo was the governor
with no clothes. And it took Zoramndani to point out
that his ask for showing I mean, it's crazy. So
(21:38):
it comes at a surprise when you hear about it,
but not at a surprise when you think about it
that at sixty seven he's incapable of doing doing something
he's never done before, which is campaigning. I mean, it's
really shocking how he's dropped the ball a most basic
campaign strategies, like buying oppos position research. I don't know
(21:58):
if he didn't do it, but I highly doubt that.
We're just hear him at all the Zoran stuff for
the first time weeks before the election. Had he bought it,
he would have blasted that. And he's always thought that
he could make this election a winning election for him
if it was a two man race, if it was
just him versus Zoran, that required Eric Adams and Curtis
(22:19):
Lye would drop out, meaning he would need Republicans to
vote for him. That's the thing with Curtis. He has
the Republican line, and he thought Cuomo thought that he
could be he could gain that Republican support by just
not being Zora. Here's the crazy about Andrew Quillman. And
I know this is hard to believe if you're not
(22:39):
a New Yorker, and if you're not someone with a
long memory. Andrew Quoma, when he first ran for governor,
cast himself as the man who could work across the
out Remember in twenty ten when he first ran, Republicans
controlled the New York State Senate. He had to work
with Republicans, and he delivered on things like property tax
freezes and tax cuts first all businesses that they that
(23:01):
they advanced, while delivering things like gay marriage legalization for Democrats.
Then come twenty eighteen when they had the progressive wave
and Cynthia Nixon challenging him, and Cuomo abandoned everything, every
moderate position he possibly had out the window. And then
COVID happened, and forget about it. He was like a
straight dictator. He went completely crazy. But that old, that
(23:27):
sense memory for that Cuomo who could be a man
for all seasons, a man for all people, a man
who work across the aisle. It hasn't re emerged that
whole get back on the bicycle. Andrew Quimo just never
showed up. And Republicans in New York City, they're starving
for victories, right, they would take crumbs from Andrew Cuomo.
So if he sat there and said, Hey, Republicans in
(23:49):
New York City, I will indorse your city council candidates
running for reelection. I will endorse the Common Sense Coalition,
which is a bipartisan group of Democrats and Republicans who
support things like tough on crime laws and specialize high schools.
He could have he could have acknowledged mistakes he made
during COVID or apologize for the fact that he said
(24:12):
pro lifers don't belong in New York State. He could
have done anything, and he did nothing. He thought, Hey,
I am not Zoron and that will be enough for Republicans.
And he's learning the hard way that that is not true.
That Republicans need something for you to vote for them,
not just vote against somebody. And I just think that
(24:35):
maybe Antrecuin was never a talented politician. Maybe he just
happened to have a D behind his name in a
state that elects Democrats except when the moon is full
and health freezes over, which in New York happens every
thirty to forty years. And you know, I've been part
of losing campaigns. They suck. It's it's awful to be
part of a losing campaign. But Cuomo is going to
(24:55):
end this campaign not saying, hey, I left it all
on the field. Everything I could he's got. He's gonna
lose his campaign without even putting his cleats on. He
could have done so much more. So on that front,
he deserves to lose. He won one hundred percent. Deserves
to lose. Now. Curtis leew on the other hand, also
deserves to lose because having worked in Republican politics for
(25:18):
as long as I have, especially in New York City,
you it's a very small circle. You know. I've met
Curtis a bunch of times, starting in twenty twenty, I
think with the first time that he ran, where he
earned just twenty eight percent of the vote. Now, since
that last election in twenty twenty one, he never really
stopped running for mayor. He's been running for five years.
But despite running for half a decade with the full
(25:40):
back end that gup. He had no primary challenge, right,
and he's been running in a state that has substantially
moved towards Republicans in the subsequent last three presidential elections.
Think of this. In twenty sixteen, Trump in New York
City got seventeen percent of the vote, In twenty twenty
he got twenty two point seven percent of the vote,
and in twenty twenty four he got thirty point five
(26:02):
percent of vosts. So he went from seventeen to almost
thirty one. So despite Curtis running in a state, in
a city that is moving substantially to the right, running
for five years longer than anybody else is running, he
only cracked twenty percent in two poles out of the
dozens taken since May. And you know that's not right
(26:24):
or fair or you know, I'm not saying that. You know,
poles are everything, but for many New Yorkers, whether they
are right or wrong, and it Curtis Leewal comes off cartoonish.
He's got the Braton and he's has the accent of
a New York, of a bygone era, a New York
that I love, but a New York of a bygun era. Nonetheless,
and it's tough to hear, but he never did the
(26:48):
things you would need to do to start cracking into
the twenties or thirties and really gaining traction. Sleetwa has said,
and I have independently confirmed that he was offered ten
million dollars to drop out of the race and promised
millions in seed money to build an international security business
for the Guardian Angels. He turned all that down. He
(27:12):
turned down the idea of having generational wealth for his children,
security for himself, all for this doomed race. What he
should have done was not only in my opinion, I
accept that, but he should have sat there and said,
I will do this if you secure more promises for
(27:34):
Republicans running for office. Get Cuomo and his allies and
the unions and his big money allies to poor money
for Republican candidates running for city council and for local
office in the city. Give them a fighting chance. For
the first time ever, Republicans running for council are constantly
looked down upon and constantly ignored, and there's a real
(27:57):
opportunity for Republicans to make gains this year. There's at
least three seats I can think of, and actually, for
Republicans actually had a real party mode moving, they'd have
a chance probably have five seats in the city Council
and those would be people to push back against Mandani
if he were to become mayor, which he likely is right,
So he could have actually used his immense leverage to
(28:19):
help the city's GOP instead of making it about himself.
He could have passed the baton onto a dozen Republicans
running for a local office. Given the Republican county parties,
which are functionally have very little money, real money, he
could have made all these deals and instead he's saying
(28:39):
he stick with his integrity, which that's great, but your
integrity plus two dollars ninety cents will get you on
the subway in New York. Right, this leverage he could
have built for Republicans is probably a one time thing
and he threw it all away. And that, as a
consultant makes my blood boil. It just makes my blood boil.
(29:00):
They want better for the Republican Party of New York
City than their nominee for mayor that wants for them,
and that's what's tragic. Okay, on to Ask Me Anything
that's coming up next. Now it's time for the Ask
Me Anything. If you guys want part of the Ask
Me Anything segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Gamepodcast dot com.
(29:22):
That's Ryan at numbers Plural gamepodcast dot com. Love getting
these questions. I have a ton to go through, so
I'm going to do too today. First question comes from Tristan.
He would love to hear some talk about the VRA
Section two, possibly, you know, because they have the Scotus
decision coming out about it and their hearing is about it.
What let me go into So Section two of the
Voting Rights Act, which was of nineteen sixty five, prohibits
(29:45):
they quote voting qualifications or pre records it to vote,
or standard practice or procedure by a state or political
subdivision that results in a denial or abridgment of the
right of any citizen to vote on account of race
or color. Importantly, in nineteen eighty two, Congress amended section
two to eliminate the requirement approving discriminatory intent in many
(30:10):
cases and instead allows suits based on discrimination effect right
the vote dilusion. So even if the intent is not there,
but the result is explicitly discriminatory in practice, then therefore
it's against the Section two of the Voting Rights Act,
and that's the part that is being challenged. The law
(30:31):
allows challenges based on effect, not just in, which raises
questions about how it's grounded in the Constitution via the
fourteenth and fifteenth Amendment. The Louisiana versus Callias case, which
is the one that Supreme Court is hearing right now,
sets the reargument or whether Section to itself remains constitutional
because of those changes. In a redistricting contest, some justices
(30:53):
have signaled openness to narrowing Section two scope, for example,
limiting to how long race content districting can continue. Courts
use the totality of circumstances tests guided by a set
of factors sometimes called the Senate factors, including history, discrimination
or racial polarization, or whether a minority candidates have been elected.
(31:14):
There's a debate really whether Section two allows for claims
purely under the intent theory and only under a result theory.
I e. Like the results is discriminatory because a Democrat
wasn't elected. That's a really big part of it. I
think it looks like the Supreme Court is going to
(31:38):
at least at the very least limit of the Voting
Rights Act. So that may may say, hey, in the
redistricting of Louisiana and Alabama, the two black majority districts
drawn for Democrats because they have to be drawn so
Democrats can win, is unconstitutional. They should be stricken down.
(31:59):
And in the future redistricting guidelines are like this, and
if they go full ham, they may sit there and
say the VRA Section two is entirely unconstitutional. At this point,
you know, it maybe had an attent back in the
nineteen sixties. America's demographics are not like they were in
the nineteen sixties. Therefore, strike the whole thing down. If
(32:21):
the whole thing is struck down, Republicans in the South
and the Deep South especially are going to go on
a binge redistricting and it would result in Republicans gaining
probably twelve to fourteen more seats. Right, they could redistrict Memphis,
they could redistrict Alabama and Louisiana. They can redistrict all
(32:42):
the blue states in Mississippi the one blue SA Mississippi,
but Georgia and in Florida. There's just a lot on
the table there. If they strike this down, which I
mean We'll see if they do or not. But that's
really what it's about. It's about the fact that is
their intent. If there's no intent involved with indiscrimination, does
the law still stand? Okay? Next question comes from Frank.
(33:04):
He says, Hi, Ryan, I have a question of immigration
I've wondered about for a long time. I've heard before
the significant portion, maybe even most, of illegal aliens in
the US are people overstay their visa. I've driven to
Canada before, and I believe I got some sort of
permission at the border to cross over. I'm not sure
that's considered a visa. It's not considered a visa. I
assume that we do that for people who drive up
(33:24):
from Mexico. We do do that for people who drive
up from Mexico. If a Mexican drove to the US
told the border agent that he'd be here for a weekend,
then stay for ten years, woulut being considered a visa overstay. Now,
like you're talking about truck drivers, they usually have a
trucking license that they are permitted with. That's not a
visa overstay, and they rarely, by the way, overstay their visas.
(33:46):
They sometimes bring illegals into their trucks, but they don't
overstay their visas much. Liberals wind about visa overstays as
if they have genuine doctors who just forgot to renew
their student visas after graduating from Harvard. But I wondered,
what truly, just what? What are truly just visitors who
never go back? Okay, So mainly overstate visas are people
who come in through either tourist visas, business student visas,
(34:09):
or exchange visas or temporary work visas. Right, those are
the ones, those are the big ones. Tourist visas are
a lot of them. People who say they're going to
be here for a week to tour and then they
just never go back. Nearly forty percent of all illegal
immigrants who came in twenty twenty three are visas over stays,
so about five hundred thousand. The largest the largest countries
(34:33):
come from outside of Latin America. When you hear what
people being crossed up to the border, those are mostly
Latin American and Mexican immigrants. Those are not everybody. Some
places like India, for example, have a lot of these overstates.
I think nineteen thousand number seventh overall. So in twenty
twenty three, which is the last numbers that I have.
They are about five hundred thousand people who were visa
(34:55):
overstates and about eight hundred and sixty thousand who cross
the border. That means four in ten all of new
illegal immigrants are visa overstays. As I said, you know,
India ranks number seven, but they're not and it's the
highest non Latin American or Caribbean country that is visa
over stays the over But it's funny which countries have
(35:19):
dispropart portionnately a large percentage of visa overstays. So the
number one country for visa over stays actually is the
nation of Chad over in Africa. Almost fifty percent people
who get a visa to the United States from Chad
across the will become overstays. Countries like Equatorial Guinea is
thirty three percent, Manamar is thirty three percent, Haiti is
thirty one percent, Congo is twenty nine percent, Sudan is
(35:43):
twenty five percent. Countries that you would think of, like
with large illegal alien populations like Mexico. Mexico's only one
and a half percent of their illegal populations visa overstates.
It's most people who come across the border, so that's
really the difference. So no, it's not a majority of
people who are here illegally. Is a very very very
high percentage. I think at one point in the oughts
(36:06):
it was a majority, but it was very briefly and
then under Biden, of course, that completely changed. The new
visa overstays though, are a significant portion of forty percent,
and they are mostly Taurus student or business visas that
were not renewed. Anyway, thank you for listening to the show.
I hope you got a lot out of it. I
will be back on Thursday. Check out that episode. And
(36:28):
if you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on
the iHeartRadio app. Have a podcast wherever you get your
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