In this episode, Lisa sits down with Ryan Girdusky to unpack the latest election results and what they mean for the future of the Republican Party. They examine why GOP voter turnout continues to lag, how Democrats are capitalizing on enthusiasm and economic concerns, and what Republicans must do to rebound before the 2026 elections. The conversation dives into the rise of progressive candidates like Zohran Mamdani, growing fractures within the GOP, and the urgent need for stronger messaging, better candidates, and energized grassroots action to counter Democrat momentum heading into the next cycle. The Truth with Lisa Boothe is part of the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Podcast Network - new episodes debut every Tuesday & Thursday.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get
to the heart of the issues that matter to you.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Today, we're going to.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Talk about Tuesday nights election results. Was it a brutal
wake up call for Republicans? Was it a referendum on
President Trump? Should Republicans be worried heading into the midterms.
We're going to ask Ryan Gardusky. He is the host
of the Numbers Game podcast. He is great at breaking
all of this down. We'll also talk about zoron mom
(00:27):
Donnie's studying victory in New York City electing a socialist.
You know, Republicans want to make him the face of
the Democrat Party. Will let hold? Does it matter? Stay
tuned for all of that more with Ryan Gardusky. Ryan,
it's great to have you back on the podcast. I
(00:49):
am looking forward to hearing what you have to say
about Tuesday nights election results. If we should be worried,
how word we should be? So appreciate you making the
time right.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Thank you for having me my fellow member of the
Buck and Clay Networks.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
This is very exciting.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Yes, we're I guess teammates college.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
I guess, so we're colleagues.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
I've always wanted a colleague, I mean Ryan.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
That means we're basically best friends, exactly like stepbrothers. All right,
so Tuesday night, Ryan, not a great night for Republicans, obviously,
I guess big takeaways from Tuesday night? How do you
read it? Looking at the tea leaves, what do they
(01:32):
tell us?
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Well, part of it was a simple calculation of voter enthusiasm.
So like in New Jersey and I just got these numbers,
about twenty one percent of all registered Republicans came out
and vote in New Jersey while around twenty seven percent
of Sorry, I'll take that back, twenty one percent of
all registered vote people who came out were Republicans versus
(01:54):
about twenty seven percent who were Democrats. And in Virginia
it was close to the thirty percent while Republicans were
around twenty two percent. So a big part of it
was just voter turnout, which happens normally right in There
have been four elections in Virginia, New Jersey where there
was a Republican president since the year two thousand. In
three of those four elections, including the last Tuesday, the
(02:17):
Democrat got fifty six percent and the other one he
got fifty three percent, So it's part of it is
very normal. Part of it was a larger problem where
you saw down ballot races outside of New York and Virginia,
in places like Mississippi, in Georgia and Kansas, in red
state America and Pennsylvania where people were voting for the
Democrat force city council, voting for the Democrat force town
(02:40):
supervisor justice that they're in stick it to Trump, right,
So that's where it becomes a little anxiety inducing. Is
the ripple effect throughout the rest of the country and
building a field I think there are so part of
is normal, right, part of it's completely normal, and part
of it it's just the election cycle. And Democrats have
had wave elections in six h and Republicans have had
(03:01):
wave cycles in twenty ten and twenty fourteen, and it's
not something to lose your mind over. And then part
of it is a big question about enthusiasm. How do
you get low propency Republicans to show up because we're
not super great at when Trump's not on the ballot.
And then part of the question is how do you
counter a lot of anxiety over the economy. You know,
(03:23):
the economy is not great now young people getting out
of college trying to find their first job with good
degrees is very, very difficult. Right now, prices are Inflation
is down, but prices are high like they were before COVID.
And that's what a lot of people, I think when
they voted for Trump, they were hoping that he could
reverse the post COVID years of high inflation, and really
(03:45):
that deinflationary period was never going to come and is incoming.
And that's something hard to explain away. Either wages have
to go up considerably or job growth has to happen.
That really hasn't happened. They've blamed a lot of it
on tariffs, but tariffs is a small portion. And why
the cost of living has increased right home mortgages have
gone up, insurance has gone up, both health and your
(04:08):
home insurance in your car. Note all these things are
white people living in credit card debt and from credit
card to credit cards. So there's a perfect storm, and
there's a government shutdown. So in Virginia, all the government
workers who were who were out of work and anger
at somebody blamed the president. So there's all those things
happening at the same time. It's really a perfect storm. Nonetheless,
(04:32):
it's not something to lose your mind over. And I
think looking forward into the twenty twenty sixth election, the
big question is one, how do you manage to sit
there and went over back independence? Because Republicans lost them
last last Tuesday, even with a good candidate like Jack
Chitdarelli who'd got more votes than he received last time
by one hundred and twenty two thousand, when some Sears
was not a good candidate. She lost by two hundred
(04:53):
thousand votes from what Glenn Younkin got. But how do
you make sure you can win over independence with that
winning message? How do you turn over Conservatives Trump voters
who are not registered Republicans, which is a lot of them, right,
A lot of them are just kind of are independence
and they don't have a political partisanship and they don't
and they don't live for politics like some other people do.
(05:17):
I think that's the really big question going into twenty
twenty six if you want to avoid losing the House,
which is you know, on a coin toss.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
But so, I guess what concerns me is looking at
the margins, right, because you look at states like New
Jersey and Virginia you know, Trump blossom in twenty twenty
four by about six percent despite sweeping you know, all
seven swing states winning the popular vote. But I wasn't expecting,
so I thought that there was a you know, I
thought that when some Steers was going to lose, but
I thought Jack Chitarelli would at least come close. But
(05:45):
he got smoked. I mean, I know, we got more
votes than he did in twenty twenty one, but he
still got smoked.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Well, I mean, the overall total was I mean, Jack
Chittarelli got are on seventy percent of the Trump vote.
It's just that Mikey Cheryl got eighty one percent of
the Kamala Harrah vote. And that's a question of voter intensity,
right of how much do you want to sit there
and show up? And I'm like, we make fun of
the people who go to the No King's rally, but
there's a sizeable chunk of people who would sit there
(06:11):
and go to the No Kings rally, and they live
to vote against against Republicans and against Trump specifically. So
that's I mean, that's a big part of why he lost.
So you know, when you run a campaign, the first
thing you do is you build a model of like,
how many votes do I need to win? Chitarelli built
a model for a normal election year. He would have
(06:32):
won any governor's election going back since nineteen seventy three.
He just wasn't in a normal election cycle. And there's
nothing really that he could do about that. And even
though Winston was a great candidate, even Jason Mire, who
was a good candidate, you can't be kind of an
election cycle. I'll tell you a story set on my
podcast today. I had a friend who's running for office
(06:53):
in New York in a republic leaning area as a
Republican to replace a conservative, a very conservative Democrat, and
campaign hard, had the money, have the infrastructure, did all
the work running against the Democrat who got evicted from
his campaign office and was working out of a U
haul van, and she got five thousand more votes than
had ever that any Republican ever received, including that former incumbent,
(07:16):
and she still lost. It's just a matter of there
are some things that are exterior that you cannot fix.
And what the Trump campaign should have done and the
Trump political team should have done, in my opinion, is
they should have picked some small races that are inconsequential
to the national news cycle, Like we lost the mayor's
race in Beaver Pennsylvania. Who cares or Beaver Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
It's not a you know, I mean that cut me
up at night.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Well but nonethets, but it was.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
It's important because it's a very, very Republican suburb of
Pittsburgh that we should never lose. We lost the DA's
race of Bucks County for the very first time ever.
These inconsequential races that are not super important should have
been where they tested out how do we try to
increase voter turn it among low propensity voters? And that
(08:08):
would have been and that would have been a good
modelis sit there and try to figure out how to
deal with twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Got to take a quick break more with Ryan on
the other side, looking ahead at the midterms. Obviously in
a president Trump's give me an office, but he's not
going to be on the ballot to drive turnout. So like,
how do Republicans get their base excited?
Speaker 3 (08:29):
Well, I think, I mean, if you want to you know,
complete political strategy as a consultant, what I would try
to do in these critical states like North Carolina. North
Carolina Michigan, New Hampshire, Georgia, where there's key Senate states.
I would try to put ballot initiatives on there. Make
English the official language, no reform, the welfare thing for
(08:54):
illegal immigrants, things that Republicans are, transgender sports, I mean,
whatever you want that bring eighty percent Republican turnout in
get the ballot initiatives there to sit there and generate
excitement around the you know, lower propensity Republican voter. This
is what Bush did in four which is very effective.
It's been tried since then, to a lesser effective degree
(09:15):
by Romney in twenty twelve, but it is effective when
they've when they've tried. Democrats have done it too, by
the way, with abortion abortion, they've done it for sure,
to sit there and turn out Democrat Democrats votes. So
there are things that you could sit there and do
around immigration and identity to drive out lower propensity, non
college educated voters. But that is really where I think
(09:37):
that they need to spend energy and time.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
You know, look he at Zaron mom Donnie's when obviously
Republicans are going to try to make them the face
of the Democrat party and we'll see how successful that
is is that just indicative of a very liberal city
or is this a directional change within the Democrat Party
more broadly, Well.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
I I mean I think that it's I think that
it's two things. So one, New York has kind of
become a sponge for the blue haired, multi pronoun voter
who lives somewhere in either the Northeast or the Midwest,
who wants to come to a place where they have
a tribe, and they moved to Brooklyn and Manhattan. Right,
(10:21):
eighty eight percent of all the new registered voters in
the last year came out of just Manhattan and Brooklyn,
and overall the statewide outside of Manhattan, you had immense
losses for the Democratic Party as far as registration goes,
it kind of looks like Pennsylvania and New Jersey. What
Mendani was able to do is one generate a lot
(10:42):
of excitement from young people, which was legitimate, right because
the cost of living is very high, and it's not
just for twenty year old it's for forty year olds
who never got to buy a house. Like the dream
was you come to New York, you make it, you
make a lot of money, you buy a house.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Whatever.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
When my parents were thirty, which was thirty years ago.
Are Yeah, about thirty years ago when they were thirty,
they bought a home in New York City in the
Atta Boroughs for two hundred thousand dollars on a you know,
very very middle class, working middle class income. That dream
that house today is worth about a million dollars. Right,
(11:16):
It's not attainable to the same degree in New York
and there's a lot of reasons for that, but that
is something that is something that is real in New
York City. So he hit on a very very key issue.
You know, a good campaign has a motto that is tangible,
that is easy to understand.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Build a wall, met a care for all, freeze the rent.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
You can understand exactly what the politicians saying that they
are going to do for you. And then also with Mandani,
the reason that he won, which is very strange and
the general election, was he built a coalition of like
the purple hair, blue haired, multi gender people and also
a lot of recent immigrants and a lot of Asians
and whatnot in the primary.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
But in the but.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
While he lost the black vote in the Hispanic vote
spectacle currely in the primary, in the general, everyone thought
that Kuama was going to be able to rely on thenx,
Hispanic vote, that Dominican vote, and the black vote, especially
the Caribbean immigrant black vote, and they completely abandoned him.
They had voted for him in the primary, but they
did not vote for him in the general. Had they
stayed with him through the general, he would have beaten Mandani.
(12:20):
That's the craziest thing is if you look at areas
of Southeast Queens of South of Southern Bronx of Southeast Brooklyn,
Couamo just won those areas incredibly lopsided and then they
just voted Democrat down the aisle whoever was the registered
Democrat and abandoned him. So I think that part of
it was. I mean, Cuomo was a horrible Canada I
(12:42):
looked at his old campaign track record. Cuamo has never
faced a serious challenge in any election ever. He never
he was basically handed the nomination for Attorney General. He
had one little primary by a New York City official.
He never had a serious competition in the general. He
was never primary for governor when he first got in,
(13:02):
and then his primary challenges once he was an incumbent
was like Cynthia Nixon, who you.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Know, she makes it.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Yeah, she's She's been in some good shows and movies
in theater, but she's you know, completely crazy. She's the
most unlikable person on the planet. And then and the
general it's in New York City's New York State, so
it's still I mean, his worst performance ever. He only
he won by seventeen points. So Cuomo really wasn't up
for the challenge and he he shouldn't have won. And
you know what's so funny, Lisa, people asked me before
(13:32):
Mandani was a thing, should I run?
Speaker 2 (13:34):
And I was like, there's no way to be Cuomo.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
I talked to New York Yankee out of running for
mayor because I was like, no one can be Cuomo.
It's impossible because the air of invincibility was so thick
on him and we really didn't realize that the Emperor
had no.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Clothes well, and he obviously felt that because he didn't
really put any work into the race either. Kind of
it seemed like he felt like he was you know,
it's interesting because when you were talking about Cuomo and
now he's never really been challenged before. I also think
about Gavin Newsome in the sense like he really hasn't
had like tough races, right, and so if he were
to get the nomination, does he end up just being
(14:09):
like another Beta Work and another Kamala Harris where it's
kind of like all talk and then they fall apart
upon like scrutiny and you know, actually getting pressed.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
And yeah, I mean, Gavin at least was a NEPO
baby like Cuomo was. And you know, I guess, I
guess Gavin had to have the internal fight of marrying
Kimberly Guilfoyle so that moybe it was his big struggle
in life. But aside from that now he's never had
a serious challenge.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Which it'll be interesting to see which direction the Demo
I mean, Democrats are going to have a huge primary
field in twenty twenty eight hundred.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
And it's really a question of you know how, you'll
tell how the Democrats want to do it. If the
Democrats stick to South Carolina being the first in the nation,
it means they want to stop in AOC right because
black voters in primaries do not vote for progressives. It
didn't happen in New York City and last week it
didn't happen in twenty twenty it didn't happen. And you know,
in most places, black voters overall vote from moderate candidates,
(15:05):
with the exception, I guess of Obama, but that was
not because of his policies, that was because he was black.
In twenty If they start started the twenty twenty eight
election with South Carolina, it's just a throwt off a
AOC or anybody else. If they start in Iowa or
New Hampshire or Nevada or any of those other states,
it's it will give an opening to AOC. And I
(15:26):
talked to a really smart Democratic consultant friend, and they said,
it's not a question of if a socialist will be
the nominee, it's just a question of when.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Interesting that's a good point about South Carolina because you
know Democrats have obviously used the system to shut Bernie
Sanders out before, So how dedicated are they doing that
to AOC. Perhaps that's an interesting point well. And also
you know, I mean Republicans too, I mean, especially with
Trump obviously on his way out, like there seems to
(15:56):
be a pretty big divide in the Republican Party as well,
So we might go through that a little bit. Heading
in to twenty twenty eight, I mean, how much do
you think we'll experience that on our side?
Speaker 3 (16:06):
I mean a primary against JD the presumptive nominee.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah, I mean, like, well, looking for right now, even
if you just follow like the online chatter, there's a
lot of like, particularly since Charlie Kirk's assassination, there just
seems to be sort of a growing divide within the party.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
Yeah, I'm speaking. Here's what it is is that there
are there are definitely gonna be changed. I mean Mark
Halpern's like, they won't even be a challenge him. There
will definitely be a challenge and there will be people
who will launch a primary against him. You know, there
is a certain US senator who has a weekly meeting
about his run for president in twenty twenty eight and
a Republican senator, and there is other Republicans. You know,
(16:47):
the model was broken really in twenty sixteen in the
sense of you can run for president and you there'll
be no nothing, You cannot lose anything from running for president.
That's why the clown car keeps getting or every election
cycle because you get to get a book deal, you
get a travel across the country, you raise millions of
dollars you get a fundraising list. And if you're like
(17:09):
Pete Budah Jedge, a man who was like a you know,
a disgraced mayor whose owned city hated him, you get
to be that secretary of Transportation. The last person who
ever lost anything by running for president was John Edwards
and is because his affair was revealed. That was twenty
years ago. You only make things better from running for president.
(17:32):
And there's a lot of personalities in the conservative movement
who are living off of the Trump economy. Right they said,
they pedal bullshit. Sorry for my language, but they pedal Trump.
They say things like he can run for a third term.
They sit there and make claims about him to be
to tell basically to give the illusion that they are
(17:54):
leading a parade and leading his movement.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
And they are are.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
All sitting there and looking down the pipeline three years
out and saying, how do I still make money without
him in office?
Speaker 2 (18:06):
What do I do?
Speaker 3 (18:07):
And they are all and they and JD is not
Trump for many many reasons. But they know that there's
not going to be a JD economy in the same
way that there was a Trump economy.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
For these I don't call them grifters. But for people
who who are.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
Talking heads, let's just sit there and say we are
lack of a better term, and there I would not
doubt if one or two of them end up running
for prison themselves.
Speaker 1 (18:28):
Yeah, it's a lot easier to fail up on the left,
which makes things harder for those of us.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
I mean, no, I mean people fail up on the right.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
There are plenty of people who fill up. I mean
I know people who've been fired from every job possible
and they either work in the administration or they have huge,
multi million dollar deals as personalities, and it makes mean
to rip my hair out, But I guess there's something
likable about them to the right people and men of matters.
But politics is an industry where a lot of people
(18:56):
fail up, and it is what it is. But if
they but I not doubt if there is a serious
no challenge to JD. And there'll be people who run
that challenge on issues like AI, issues like Israel, issues
like uh, you know that they'll sit there and say
that he's too weak on this, or he's too close
to Peter Teel or whatever the case may be. And
(19:17):
if they go and get into a debate, we'll see
how that works itself out. But but yeah, but they'll
be there'll be a challenge. It won't be the same
as democratic one, which is going to be a you know,
a blood bath between between the between the Democrats. And
they'll probably be a push to see who is the
furthest left. Which is what got Kamala in trouble the
first time is when she answered that stupid quiz saying
(19:39):
I will give I will give transgender surgeries by tech
funded by taxpayers to illegal immigrants.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
Quick break, stay with us and be like what you're hearing?
Please share in social media or maybe send it to
your family and friends. How strong do you think? I mean,
JD did a really great job during the vice presidential debate.
How strong of a candidate do you think he is?
Speaker 2 (20:00):
Work for him?
Speaker 3 (20:00):
You know, I worked him in twenty twenty two, so
I'm a little partial.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
I like him a lot.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
Yeah, he's much stronger than people think that he is.
He's very thoughtful and he really understands I guess the moment.
But he's he's very very he's he's he would be
an aggressive campaigner, and I think that he will be
able to appeal to a lot of voters remember twenty
twenty eight is because the way the census works, and
(20:25):
because redistricting and what states are expected to lose seats
versus gain them in the twenty thirty twenty thirty census,
twenty twenty eight will be the last presidential year for
at least a decade where the Midwest will matter right
outside of Ohio. So if a Republican wins Nevada, Georgia, Florida, Texas,
(20:46):
and Arizona in twenty thirty two, and beyond the way
that the calculations are working in North Carolina, rather, if
they win those states they don't need Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,
that will be the end that this will be the
last election where the mid West will matter as a
critical state. Republicans can win the presidency without any of
those states, so long as they keep North Carolina, Georgia, Florida,
(21:07):
I guess, but it's a red state, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
Yeah. And then before we go, you know, how are
you feeling about the midterms? And we still the dust
still hasn't settled on all the redistricting stuff across the country,
and you know, looking at what the map is going
to look like across the board. But you know, how
are you feeling about the midterms?
Speaker 2 (21:28):
If elections were held.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
Today, North Carolina has a Democrats got a top nominee.
North Carolina Democrats being great in recruiting, so they have
a top candidate against Susan Collins, a top canon in
North Carolina, and it's gonna be hard to win over
Michigan and Georgia and New Hampshire. So, I mean, Republicans
seem like they'll probably keep the Senate their favor to
(21:51):
keep it unless it's a complete wave, which would be
a disaster and have to win Iowa or Texas. As
far as the House goes, it's tough. I mean. The
good thing about twenty the last election last November, in
the state House races in Virginia, Republicans managed to keep
all the seats that were Trump plus four or greater
in the state House. So maybe they lost one, but
(22:13):
I don't think they did. They kept all the other
Trump seats though, so there was not a bleed upwards
like there would have been against when some sears, and
that gives kind of hope that at least in the House,
there's like kind of a cap of how much you know,
we could expect to possibly.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
Lose or gain.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
And there are you know, there's a dozen there's a
dozen Democrats who are in Trump districts. I guess because
a redistrict name, there's probably like nine that are still
competitive that they need to go after. And we'll see
if after California and Virginia redistrict, what's left.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Of the Republicans.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
Yep, well we'll watch it. It is indeed a numbers
Game with Ryan Gradeski. Appreciate you making the time.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
Absolutely, thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (22:54):
Hey that was Ryan Gradusky, host of the Numbers Game podcast.
Appreciate him making the time to come on show. Appreciate
you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week. I also want
to thank my producer, John Cassie for putting the show together.
Until next time.
Welcome to the Truth with Lisa Booth, where we get
to the heart of the issues that matter to you.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Today, we're going to.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Talk about Tuesday nights election results. Was it a brutal
wake up call for Republicans? Was it a referendum on
President Trump? Should Republicans be worried heading into the midterms.
We're going to ask Ryan Gardusky. He is the host
of the Numbers Game podcast. He is great at breaking
all of this down. We'll also talk about zoron mom
(00:27):
Donnie's studying victory in New York City electing a socialist.
You know, Republicans want to make him the face of
the Democrat Party. Will let hold? Does it matter? Stay
tuned for all of that more with Ryan Gardusky. Ryan,
it's great to have you back on the podcast. I
(00:49):
am looking forward to hearing what you have to say
about Tuesday nights election results. If we should be worried,
how word we should be? So appreciate you making the
time right.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Thank you for having me my fellow member of the
Buck and Clay Networks.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
This is very exciting.
Speaker 1 (01:03):
Yes, we're I guess teammates college.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
I guess, so we're colleagues.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
I've always wanted a colleague, I mean Ryan.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
That means we're basically best friends, exactly like stepbrothers. All right,
so Tuesday night, Ryan, not a great night for Republicans, obviously,
I guess big takeaways from Tuesday night? How do you
read it? Looking at the tea leaves, what do they
(01:32):
tell us?
Speaker 3 (01:33):
Well, part of it was a simple calculation of voter enthusiasm.
So like in New Jersey and I just got these numbers,
about twenty one percent of all registered Republicans came out
and vote in New Jersey while around twenty seven percent
of Sorry, I'll take that back, twenty one percent of
all registered vote people who came out were Republicans versus
(01:54):
about twenty seven percent who were Democrats. And in Virginia
it was close to the thirty percent while Republicans were
around twenty two percent. So a big part of it
was just voter turnout, which happens normally right in There
have been four elections in Virginia, New Jersey where there
was a Republican president since the year two thousand. In
three of those four elections, including the last Tuesday, the
(02:17):
Democrat got fifty six percent and the other one he
got fifty three percent, So it's part of it is
very normal. Part of it was a larger problem where
you saw down ballot races outside of New York and Virginia,
in places like Mississippi, in Georgia and Kansas, in red
state America and Pennsylvania where people were voting for the
Democrat force city council, voting for the Democrat force town
(02:40):
supervisor justice that they're in stick it to Trump, right,
So that's where it becomes a little anxiety inducing. Is
the ripple effect throughout the rest of the country and
building a field I think there are so part of
is normal, right, part of it's completely normal, and part
of it it's just the election cycle. And Democrats have
had wave elections in six h and Republicans have had
(03:01):
wave cycles in twenty ten and twenty fourteen, and it's
not something to lose your mind over. And then part
of it is a big question about enthusiasm. How do
you get low propency Republicans to show up because we're
not super great at when Trump's not on the ballot.
And then part of the question is how do you
counter a lot of anxiety over the economy. You know,
(03:23):
the economy is not great now young people getting out
of college trying to find their first job with good
degrees is very, very difficult. Right now, prices are Inflation
is down, but prices are high like they were before COVID.
And that's what a lot of people, I think when
they voted for Trump, they were hoping that he could
reverse the post COVID years of high inflation, and really
(03:45):
that deinflationary period was never going to come and is incoming.
And that's something hard to explain away. Either wages have
to go up considerably or job growth has to happen.
That really hasn't happened. They've blamed a lot of it
on tariffs, but tariffs is a small portion. And why
the cost of living has increased right home mortgages have
gone up, insurance has gone up, both health and your
(04:08):
home insurance in your car. Note all these things are
white people living in credit card debt and from credit
card to credit cards. So there's a perfect storm, and
there's a government shutdown. So in Virginia, all the government
workers who were who were out of work and anger
at somebody blamed the president. So there's all those things
happening at the same time. It's really a perfect storm. Nonetheless,
(04:32):
it's not something to lose your mind over. And I
think looking forward into the twenty twenty sixth election, the
big question is one, how do you manage to sit
there and went over back independence? Because Republicans lost them
last last Tuesday, even with a good candidate like Jack
Chitdarelli who'd got more votes than he received last time
by one hundred and twenty two thousand, when some Sears
was not a good candidate. She lost by two hundred
(04:53):
thousand votes from what Glenn Younkin got. But how do
you make sure you can win over independence with that
winning message? How do you turn over Conservatives Trump voters
who are not registered Republicans, which is a lot of them, right,
A lot of them are just kind of are independence
and they don't have a political partisanship and they don't
and they don't live for politics like some other people do.
(05:17):
I think that's the really big question going into twenty
twenty six if you want to avoid losing the House,
which is you know, on a coin toss.
Speaker 1 (05:24):
But so, I guess what concerns me is looking at
the margins, right, because you look at states like New
Jersey and Virginia you know, Trump blossom in twenty twenty
four by about six percent despite sweeping you know, all
seven swing states winning the popular vote. But I wasn't expecting,
so I thought that there was a you know, I
thought that when some Steers was going to lose, but
I thought Jack Chitarelli would at least come close. But
(05:45):
he got smoked. I mean, I know, we got more
votes than he did in twenty twenty one, but he
still got smoked.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Well, I mean, the overall total was I mean, Jack
Chittarelli got are on seventy percent of the Trump vote.
It's just that Mikey Cheryl got eighty one percent of
the Kamala Harrah vote. And that's a question of voter intensity,
right of how much do you want to sit there
and show up? And I'm like, we make fun of
the people who go to the No King's rally, but
there's a sizeable chunk of people who would sit there
(06:11):
and go to the No Kings rally, and they live
to vote against against Republicans and against Trump specifically. So
that's I mean, that's a big part of why he lost.
So you know, when you run a campaign, the first
thing you do is you build a model of like,
how many votes do I need to win? Chitarelli built
a model for a normal election year. He would have
(06:32):
won any governor's election going back since nineteen seventy three.
He just wasn't in a normal election cycle. And there's
nothing really that he could do about that. And even
though Winston was a great candidate, even Jason Mire, who
was a good candidate, you can't be kind of an
election cycle. I'll tell you a story set on my
podcast today. I had a friend who's running for office
(06:53):
in New York in a republic leaning area as a
Republican to replace a conservative, a very conservative Democrat, and
campaign hard, had the money, have the infrastructure, did all
the work running against the Democrat who got evicted from
his campaign office and was working out of a U
haul van, and she got five thousand more votes than
had ever that any Republican ever received, including that former incumbent,
(07:16):
and she still lost. It's just a matter of there
are some things that are exterior that you cannot fix.
And what the Trump campaign should have done and the
Trump political team should have done, in my opinion, is
they should have picked some small races that are inconsequential
to the national news cycle, Like we lost the mayor's
race in Beaver Pennsylvania. Who cares or Beaver Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
It's not a you know, I mean that cut me
up at night.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Well but nonethets, but it was.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
It's important because it's a very, very Republican suburb of
Pittsburgh that we should never lose. We lost the DA's
race of Bucks County for the very first time ever.
These inconsequential races that are not super important should have
been where they tested out how do we try to
increase voter turn it among low propensity voters? And that
(08:08):
would have been and that would have been a good
modelis sit there and try to figure out how to
deal with twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Got to take a quick break more with Ryan on
the other side, looking ahead at the midterms. Obviously in
a president Trump's give me an office, but he's not
going to be on the ballot to drive turnout. So like,
how do Republicans get their base excited?
Speaker 3 (08:29):
Well, I think, I mean, if you want to you know,
complete political strategy as a consultant, what I would try
to do in these critical states like North Carolina. North
Carolina Michigan, New Hampshire, Georgia, where there's key Senate states.
I would try to put ballot initiatives on there. Make
English the official language, no reform, the welfare thing for
(08:54):
illegal immigrants, things that Republicans are, transgender sports, I mean,
whatever you want that bring eighty percent Republican turnout in
get the ballot initiatives there to sit there and generate
excitement around the you know, lower propensity Republican voter. This
is what Bush did in four which is very effective.
It's been tried since then, to a lesser effective degree
(09:15):
by Romney in twenty twelve, but it is effective when
they've when they've tried. Democrats have done it too, by
the way, with abortion abortion, they've done it for sure,
to sit there and turn out Democrat Democrats votes. So
there are things that you could sit there and do
around immigration and identity to drive out lower propensity, non
college educated voters. But that is really where I think
(09:37):
that they need to spend energy and time.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
You know, look he at Zaron mom Donnie's when obviously
Republicans are going to try to make them the face
of the Democrat party and we'll see how successful that
is is that just indicative of a very liberal city
or is this a directional change within the Democrat Party
more broadly, Well.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
I I mean I think that it's I think that
it's two things. So one, New York has kind of
become a sponge for the blue haired, multi pronoun voter
who lives somewhere in either the Northeast or the Midwest,
who wants to come to a place where they have
a tribe, and they moved to Brooklyn and Manhattan. Right,
(10:21):
eighty eight percent of all the new registered voters in
the last year came out of just Manhattan and Brooklyn,
and overall the statewide outside of Manhattan, you had immense
losses for the Democratic Party as far as registration goes,
it kind of looks like Pennsylvania and New Jersey. What
Mendani was able to do is one generate a lot
(10:42):
of excitement from young people, which was legitimate, right because
the cost of living is very high, and it's not
just for twenty year old it's for forty year olds
who never got to buy a house. Like the dream
was you come to New York, you make it, you
make a lot of money, you buy a house.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Whatever.
Speaker 3 (10:55):
When my parents were thirty, which was thirty years ago.
Are Yeah, about thirty years ago when they were thirty,
they bought a home in New York City in the
Atta Boroughs for two hundred thousand dollars on a you know,
very very middle class, working middle class income. That dream
that house today is worth about a million dollars. Right,
(11:16):
It's not attainable to the same degree in New York
and there's a lot of reasons for that, but that
is something that is something that is real in New
York City. So he hit on a very very key issue.
You know, a good campaign has a motto that is tangible,
that is easy to understand.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
Build a wall, met a care for all, freeze the rent.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
You can understand exactly what the politicians saying that they
are going to do for you. And then also with Mandani,
the reason that he won, which is very strange and
the general election, was he built a coalition of like
the purple hair, blue haired, multi gender people and also
a lot of recent immigrants and a lot of Asians
and whatnot in the primary.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
But in the but.
Speaker 3 (11:57):
While he lost the black vote in the Hispanic vote
spectacle currely in the primary, in the general, everyone thought
that Kuama was going to be able to rely on thenx,
Hispanic vote, that Dominican vote, and the black vote, especially
the Caribbean immigrant black vote, and they completely abandoned him.
They had voted for him in the primary, but they
did not vote for him in the general. Had they
stayed with him through the general, he would have beaten Mandani.
(12:20):
That's the craziest thing is if you look at areas
of Southeast Queens of South of Southern Bronx of Southeast Brooklyn,
Couamo just won those areas incredibly lopsided and then they
just voted Democrat down the aisle whoever was the registered
Democrat and abandoned him. So I think that part of
it was. I mean, Cuomo was a horrible Canada I
(12:42):
looked at his old campaign track record. Cuamo has never
faced a serious challenge in any election ever. He never
he was basically handed the nomination for Attorney General. He
had one little primary by a New York City official.
He never had a serious competition in the general. He
was never primary for governor when he first got in,
(13:02):
and then his primary challenges once he was an incumbent
was like Cynthia Nixon, who you.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Know, she makes it.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Yeah, she's She's been in some good shows and movies
in theater, but she's you know, completely crazy. She's the
most unlikable person on the planet. And then and the
general it's in New York City's New York State, so
it's still I mean, his worst performance ever. He only
he won by seventeen points. So Cuomo really wasn't up
for the challenge and he he shouldn't have won. And
you know what's so funny, Lisa, people asked me before
(13:32):
Mandani was a thing, should I run?
Speaker 2 (13:34):
And I was like, there's no way to be Cuomo.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
I talked to New York Yankee out of running for
mayor because I was like, no one can be Cuomo.
It's impossible because the air of invincibility was so thick
on him and we really didn't realize that the Emperor
had no.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
Clothes well, and he obviously felt that because he didn't
really put any work into the race either. Kind of
it seemed like he felt like he was you know,
it's interesting because when you were talking about Cuomo and
now he's never really been challenged before. I also think
about Gavin Newsome in the sense like he really hasn't
had like tough races, right, and so if he were
to get the nomination, does he end up just being
(14:09):
like another Beta Work and another Kamala Harris where it's
kind of like all talk and then they fall apart
upon like scrutiny and you know, actually getting pressed.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
And yeah, I mean, Gavin at least was a NEPO
baby like Cuomo was. And you know, I guess, I
guess Gavin had to have the internal fight of marrying
Kimberly Guilfoyle so that moybe it was his big struggle
in life. But aside from that now he's never had
a serious challenge.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Which it'll be interesting to see which direction the Demo
I mean, Democrats are going to have a huge primary
field in twenty twenty eight hundred.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
And it's really a question of you know how, you'll
tell how the Democrats want to do it. If the
Democrats stick to South Carolina being the first in the nation,
it means they want to stop in AOC right because
black voters in primaries do not vote for progressives. It
didn't happen in New York City and last week it
didn't happen in twenty twenty it didn't happen. And you know,
in most places, black voters overall vote from moderate candidates,
(15:05):
with the exception, I guess of Obama, but that was
not because of his policies, that was because he was black.
In twenty If they start started the twenty twenty eight
election with South Carolina, it's just a throwt off a
AOC or anybody else. If they start in Iowa or
New Hampshire or Nevada or any of those other states,
it's it will give an opening to AOC. And I
(15:26):
talked to a really smart Democratic consultant friend, and they said,
it's not a question of if a socialist will be
the nominee, it's just a question of when.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Interesting that's a good point about South Carolina because you
know Democrats have obviously used the system to shut Bernie
Sanders out before, So how dedicated are they doing that
to AOC. Perhaps that's an interesting point well. And also
you know, I mean Republicans too, I mean, especially with
Trump obviously on his way out, like there seems to
(15:56):
be a pretty big divide in the Republican Party as well,
So we might go through that a little bit. Heading
in to twenty twenty eight, I mean, how much do
you think we'll experience that on our side?
Speaker 3 (16:06):
I mean a primary against JD the presumptive nominee.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Yeah, I mean, like, well, looking for right now, even
if you just follow like the online chatter, there's a
lot of like, particularly since Charlie Kirk's assassination, there just
seems to be sort of a growing divide within the party.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
Yeah, I'm speaking. Here's what it is is that there
are there are definitely gonna be changed. I mean Mark
Halpern's like, they won't even be a challenge him. There
will definitely be a challenge and there will be people
who will launch a primary against him. You know, there
is a certain US senator who has a weekly meeting
about his run for president in twenty twenty eight and
a Republican senator, and there is other Republicans. You know,
(16:47):
the model was broken really in twenty sixteen in the
sense of you can run for president and you there'll
be no nothing, You cannot lose anything from running for president.
That's why the clown car keeps getting or every election
cycle because you get to get a book deal, you
get a travel across the country, you raise millions of
dollars you get a fundraising list. And if you're like
(17:09):
Pete Budah Jedge, a man who was like a you know,
a disgraced mayor whose owned city hated him, you get
to be that secretary of Transportation. The last person who
ever lost anything by running for president was John Edwards
and is because his affair was revealed. That was twenty
years ago. You only make things better from running for president.
(17:32):
And there's a lot of personalities in the conservative movement
who are living off of the Trump economy. Right they said,
they pedal bullshit. Sorry for my language, but they pedal Trump.
They say things like he can run for a third term.
They sit there and make claims about him to be
to tell basically to give the illusion that they are
(17:54):
leading a parade and leading his movement.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
And they are are.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
All sitting there and looking down the pipeline three years
out and saying, how do I still make money without
him in office?
Speaker 2 (18:06):
What do I do?
Speaker 3 (18:07):
And they are all and they and JD is not
Trump for many many reasons. But they know that there's
not going to be a JD economy in the same
way that there was a Trump economy.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
For these I don't call them grifters. But for people
who who are.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
Talking heads, let's just sit there and say we are
lack of a better term, and there I would not
doubt if one or two of them end up running
for prison themselves.
Speaker 1 (18:28):
Yeah, it's a lot easier to fail up on the left,
which makes things harder for those of us.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
I mean, no, I mean people fail up on the right.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
There are plenty of people who fill up. I mean
I know people who've been fired from every job possible
and they either work in the administration or they have huge,
multi million dollar deals as personalities, and it makes mean
to rip my hair out, But I guess there's something
likable about them to the right people and men of matters.
But politics is an industry where a lot of people
(18:56):
fail up, and it is what it is. But if
they but I not doubt if there is a serious
no challenge to JD. And there'll be people who run
that challenge on issues like AI, issues like Israel, issues
like uh, you know that they'll sit there and say
that he's too weak on this, or he's too close
to Peter Teel or whatever the case may be. And
(19:17):
if they go and get into a debate, we'll see
how that works itself out. But but yeah, but they'll
be there'll be a challenge. It won't be the same
as democratic one, which is going to be a you know,
a blood bath between between the between the Democrats. And
they'll probably be a push to see who is the
furthest left. Which is what got Kamala in trouble the
first time is when she answered that stupid quiz saying
(19:39):
I will give I will give transgender surgeries by tech
funded by taxpayers to illegal immigrants.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
Quick break, stay with us and be like what you're hearing?
Please share in social media or maybe send it to
your family and friends. How strong do you think? I mean,
JD did a really great job during the vice presidential debate.
How strong of a candidate do you think he is?
Speaker 2 (20:00):
Work for him?
Speaker 3 (20:00):
You know, I worked him in twenty twenty two, so
I'm a little partial.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
I like him a lot.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
Yeah, he's much stronger than people think that he is.
He's very thoughtful and he really understands I guess the moment.
But he's he's very very he's he's he would be
an aggressive campaigner, and I think that he will be
able to appeal to a lot of voters remember twenty
twenty eight is because the way the census works, and
(20:25):
because redistricting and what states are expected to lose seats
versus gain them in the twenty thirty twenty thirty census,
twenty twenty eight will be the last presidential year for
at least a decade where the Midwest will matter right
outside of Ohio. So if a Republican wins Nevada, Georgia, Florida, Texas,
(20:46):
and Arizona in twenty thirty two, and beyond the way
that the calculations are working in North Carolina, rather, if
they win those states they don't need Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,
that will be the end that this will be the
last election where the mid West will matter as a
critical state. Republicans can win the presidency without any of
those states, so long as they keep North Carolina, Georgia, Florida,
(21:07):
I guess, but it's a red state, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
Yeah. And then before we go, you know, how are
you feeling about the midterms? And we still the dust
still hasn't settled on all the redistricting stuff across the country,
and you know, looking at what the map is going
to look like across the board. But you know, how
are you feeling about the midterms?
Speaker 2 (21:28):
If elections were held.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
Today, North Carolina has a Democrats got a top nominee.
North Carolina Democrats being great in recruiting, so they have
a top candidate against Susan Collins, a top canon in
North Carolina, and it's gonna be hard to win over
Michigan and Georgia and New Hampshire. So, I mean, Republicans
seem like they'll probably keep the Senate their favor to
(21:51):
keep it unless it's a complete wave, which would be
a disaster and have to win Iowa or Texas. As
far as the House goes, it's tough. I mean. The
good thing about twenty the last election last November, in
the state House races in Virginia, Republicans managed to keep
all the seats that were Trump plus four or greater
in the state House. So maybe they lost one, but
(22:13):
I don't think they did. They kept all the other
Trump seats though, so there was not a bleed upwards
like there would have been against when some sears, and
that gives kind of hope that at least in the House,
there's like kind of a cap of how much you know,
we could expect to possibly.
Speaker 2 (22:27):
Lose or gain.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
And there are you know, there's a dozen there's a
dozen Democrats who are in Trump districts. I guess because
a redistrict name, there's probably like nine that are still
competitive that they need to go after. And we'll see
if after California and Virginia redistrict, what's left.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Of the Republicans.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
Yep, well we'll watch it. It is indeed a numbers
Game with Ryan Gradeski. Appreciate you making the time.
Speaker 3 (22:53):
Absolutely, thank you for having me.
Speaker 1 (22:54):
Hey that was Ryan Gradusky, host of the Numbers Game podcast.
Appreciate him making the time to come on show. Appreciate
you guys at home for listening every Tuesday and Thursday,
but you can listen throughout the week. I also want
to thank my producer, John Cassie for putting the show together.
Until next time.
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Buck Sexton
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