Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome back to a numbers Game with Ryan Gerdski. Thank
you guys for being here. Happy New Year everyone, first
episode of the New Year. Happy twenty twenty six. I'm
excited to be here, and it's actually the one year
anniversary of this podcast. We started this podcast January sixth,
twenty twenty five, and here we are a full year later.
I didn't really know if this podcast would work, or
(00:23):
if there was an audience who want to hear about
nerdy number stuff with, you know, a nasally guy from Queens.
I guess Ray Ramonald's not the only one who can
pull an audience off sounding like this, But I'm just kidding.
So I'm happy that this show has grown and that
you stayed with me for this entire year. And I
hope that I'm providing you with some interesting insight about
(00:45):
politics and the economy and the world at large that
you're not getting from anywhere else. So thank you guys
for being here. I really appreciate it. Now I ring
in a new Year the old fashioned way of this year.
In twenty twenty six, I had the flu, which is
why we didn't have an episode four New Year's Day.
I was just honestly too sick. So I have a
little PSA a piece of advice for my audience. If
(01:06):
you are sick and not feeling well, or your child
is sick and not feeling well, do not bring them
to a crowded party full of people, even if it's Christmas,
which is apparently what some people in my own family
don't know. Influenza should not be your gift to everybody.
So that's my little piece of advice going into the
rest of the year. If you're not feeling well, stay home,
(01:27):
take a nap, have a have some me time, maybe
listen to this podcast or some episodes you have missed,
but don't go out with large groups of people. So
that's why we didn't have a New Year's episode again.
But this this new year, this new podcast is going
to be now three days a week. We're every Monday, Wednesday,
and Friday, so please like and subscribe wherever you're listening
to this podcast to make sure you don't miss an episode.
(01:48):
I'm going to try to make sure we do like
a canid episode every Friday, maybe you're a Wednesday whenever
I can get a canon on to talk about specifically
one race because it's a big year with the midterms.
This year, we have a lot of important races, and
only for the House and the Senate, but also for
governorship and state legislatures too, So I think that's really
important to spend some time to actually dig deep into
these individual races and what's really making parts of our
(02:09):
country tick. I'm very excited about it. And if you're
really feeling generous and liking this, make sure it pleas
to like and subscribe and give me a five star
review if you have a chance. It's pretty easy, takes
a few minutes. All right, let's serve this podcast with
some breaking news, and that is that Venezuelan dictator Nicholas
Monduro was arrested over the weekend by special forces and
he's a waiting trial in the Southern District of New York.
(02:32):
He is my new neighbor. There goes the neighborhood. Now.
I was welcome to a few friends who are Venezuelan
and Cuban and they couldn't be happier. It's a big
day for them, and I'm happy for them. But it
is feels like liberation for them. Right they have finally
the dictator has been overthrown but before I go any further,
I want to remind my ownings of something very important
that has been lost in this conversation that Maduro is
(02:55):
being arrested because we're talking about, you know, maybe if
it was constitutional, or if it was over reach, or
you know what the ramifications are. It's important to remember Maduro,
who is the successor of Hugo Chavez, the other Venezuelan dictator,
was elected by the people. The people voted for communism,
(03:16):
and the way that communism works is you can vote
for it, but you can never vote away from it.
You can never get out of it. You can't vote
your way out of communism, only your way in. And
that's a very important thing to be aware of in
this conversation. This would not have happened had the Venezuelan
people not voted for communism. Hugo Chavez, Maduro's predecessor in
(03:39):
nineteen ninety eight campaign on the themes of tackling inequality
were distributed to economic policies and for a new constitution,
but also in the midst of this left wing economic populism,
he also covered racial identity throughout his entire campaign. It's
less talked about than just the social economic policies, because
(04:01):
that's the way the leftovers works. They don't like to
sit there and talk about racialism on the left. But
Chavez would often talk about how the fact that he
was ethnically mixed, he was probably part European, probably part Native,
probably part black, whatever, and because he was, he would
note how his hair was curly, how his nose looked different,
how his eyes were squintear. He would talk about how
(04:24):
the elites were white and talk about the whiteness of
the elites, the fact that they were the descendants of Europeans.
There's a lot of colorism in South America. His mixed
racial identity was infused with left wing economic populism. You
could not separate them. Now, who does that sound like
in America today? Remember Mandanni was there right after the
(04:48):
elections saying we're going to turn New York into Denmark
and Sweden, but for brown people. We've talked and we've
heard a number of times from prominent left wing politicians
about race and I identity. The left employees the same
type of tactics that we saw in the rise of
Hugo Chavez in Venezuela back in nineteen ninety eight in
(05:10):
America today. The lesson for Americans from this whole experience
that we're seeing right now shouldn't just be the future
of Venezuela, but also the past. You only vote into
socialism and into communism. You never vote your way out.
So how do voters feel about Trump and Venezuela? How
does he feel about the Apstina Maduro? There have been
(05:31):
two poles. First in Natlas Intel Pole. They really got
the twenty twenty five election incorrectly, but they've found voters
overwhelmingly in favor of how he was removed. Right, it
was only six hours. It wasn't like this long ongoing war.
There were a number of polls ahead of time asking
about a military conflict, and when people hear the words
(05:52):
military conflict, they're thinking of a rock, they're thinking of Afghanistan,
they're thinking of long occupations and nation building. So it's
very difficult when you're talking about this type of engagement
to get a pulse check ahead of time, because no
one's processing and saying a military engagement that means six
hours when no Americans die. There was also a you
(06:13):
gov poll that found that they asked in afterwards they
said okay, seeing how this was do you approve or
disapprove how Trump conducted this rate? Thirty four percent approved,
forty one percent disapproved. This was taken in the immediate aftermath,
so it's like only a nine hundred sample size. I
don't know if everyone even had all the information, all
the data. I'm going to have a grain of salt
(06:35):
when it comes to this poll, but it's the only
one I have going into this podcast. Is why I'm
going to bring it up first. I think one important
piece of this poll, though, that seems very obvious and
very true, is twenty five percent of respondence didn't know
how they felt. Foreign policy is not a big deal
to most voters. I think that you can't over emphasize that,
(06:57):
even if you're like an America heck yeah, yeah, like
this is great. We kicked asks and took names and
beat up a commie, even if you're feeling that kind
of excitement and enthusiasm. For most voters, foreign policy just
isn't a top priority right now. They really care what's
going on in this country. When asked they think military
intervention will make things better or worse. In Venezuela, a
thirty four percent said better. Thirty five percent said worse.
(07:20):
Thirty one percent said they don't know. It looked like
this pole very much came down to partisanship about how
you feel about Trump, right over and over again they asked,
and basically, if you liked Trump, you said the thing
was great. If you didn't like Trump, you didn't feel
it was good. And then a whole slew of people
really had no clue. There were a clear divides on
three issues. The first was fifty one percent said America
(07:43):
will take over Venezuela's oilth industry. That seems like it's
a big goal of the Trump administration. Forty one percent
said Maduro should be found guilty of at least one
charge brought against him. There's Maduro is not a very
well liked figure. I think it's a broad level of
support across the board is that you know, there's no
love for Maduro except I guess of the hard left
(08:05):
communist type that loves starvation. And then, lastly, by a
nineteen point margin forty six to twenty seven, Americans want
their country to be a good neighbor and avoid interfering
in other countries' domestic affairs instead of trying to set
the right of other nations wrongdoings. We are still a
very war weary country, right. We are still a country
(08:26):
that has grappled with the effects of Iraq and Afghanistan.
And any time you talk and it is processed as
a long military engagement, Americans are not really there now.
Seventy one percent of Democrats, forty four percent of Independence
and twenty four percent of Republicans out there and said,
we're really we just want to be good neighbors. We
(08:47):
don't want to sit there and try to right the
wrongest of every country. Fifty percent of Republicans said the opposite.
But I think it's important to realize that fifty percent
of Republicans were either I don't know, or we should
just be good neighbors. That's the president's base. That should
be where his numbers are strongest, and they're not that
strong even there. Americans really do want more me time
(09:09):
as a country, and I think Iraq and Afghanistan just large,
you know, they loom large in our conscious and in
our head, especially when you consider how military service is
so heavily represented in just very few parts of this country,
right the South, the Midwest, and the Inland Empire, like California, Arizona, Nevada,
that whole area. That is the overwhelming number of people
(09:33):
who serve in our military. It's not the country as
a whole. You know, we don't force enlistment everywhere. And
there's you know, we live in a country where kids
in blue states wave foreign flags and kids in red
steaks to get American flags draped over their coffins from
these wars. And I just think there's a lot of
apprehension towards military intervention because of that. As for what
(09:54):
happens next to Venezuela, I have been trying to read
any tea leaves and it is no clear answer. They
very well could hampower the vice president for some time.
It doesn't look like the Nobel Peace Prize winner woman
who is the opposition woman, is going to take over,
but who knows, maybe she will. My best bet is
(10:17):
that the Trump administration is going to provide certain types
of demands for whoever the next possible leader is, and
whoever that is will probably go along with quite a
few of them. One will obviously be about oil, but
the second one that no one's really talking about is
that Trump revoked temporary protective status of seven hundred thousand.
(10:37):
Well it's five hundred thousand and as well. And then
there's a secondary Biden humanitarian category that he offered that
would be another almost two hundred thousand. So almost seven
hundred thousand Venezuelans living in America really are going to
be without legal protections to be here. So part of
that conversation with whoever the next leader is about who
(10:58):
can repatriate seven hundred thousand Venezuelans, not to mention the
millions of Venezuelans living in South America who probably want
to go home at some point. I think one thing
is really for certain them is that Trump cannot take
his eye off the ball when it comes to domestic policy.
Americans want to present focus more on domestic agenda, especially
on the economy and affordability, and not just making a
(11:21):
legacy with foreign policy wins, which the President has done
a very good job of so far, from Middle East
to what he's trying to do in Ukraine to Venezuela.
That's fantastic for your presidential library, but Americans at home
need to know you're caring about the homeland and there's
a lot to celebrate going into this new year, right
I was looking and digging at some data, and I
(11:43):
think it's lost very easily because you focus on bad
news more than good. But I wanted to spend a
second just thinking about all the good news that we
have going this year. There's a positive sign at the
BINN of twenty twenty six that we've really turned a
corner on the rise of BLM induced violence, Black Lives
Matter induced violence that's swept over our country for the
last decade from twenty fifteen to twenty twenty three. Really
(12:06):
twenty twenty four, we're at the lowest levels of mass
shooting since two thousand and six, the lowest levels of
homicide since the nineteen fifties, in part because our medical
equipment is so good, we've managed to avoid deaths from homicides,
but nonetheless lowest since nineteen fifties. Teenage pregnancy is at
a record low. Suicides are lowest since twenty twenty, road
(12:27):
fatalities lowest since twenty nineteen, drug overdose deaths lowest since
twenty nineteen. Alcohol consumption is at the lowest and recorded history.
Inflation is at the most stable since twenty twenty. There's
a lot to celebrate. Americans need to be reminded of that,
like we are. Nothing's perfect, but we're not headed in
a bad direction right now. Things could be better, but
(12:49):
things are not. The world is not ending, things are
not catastrophic, And any person who is sitting there and
saying this is just a bad there's no worse time
in the world to live in is really kind of
missing missing the missing the moment, because it's a pretty
good time to live in this country right now, and
(13:09):
there's a lot of good things happening. Not perfect, a
lot more could be improved upon, but things have been
heading in a positive step and you should just know
that and chewing that as you start this new year.
There is a lot of great things happening for America.
So for this episode, I wanted to catch up on
all the ask Me Any things that I missed from
last year. We are you going to go into that
next So because of the flu, I'm behind them asked
(13:35):
Me Anything, and I wanted to make sure that I
answered all my twenty twenty five questions. Really start off
twenty twenty six Fresh All New Asked Me Any Things
starting at the beginning of the year. If you only
part of the ask Me Anything segment, EMU me Ryan
at numbers Game podcast dot com. That's Ryan at numbers
Plural gamepodcast dot com. It's such become such an great
part of the show. I feel like I'm actually having
a dialogue with so many different people from across the country.
(13:58):
I really love this. It adds a lot to the show.
So please, by all means, I am completely free. I've
answered all the questions as of this episode, So shoot
me an email on literally anything, and I will try
to get you the data and the information in my
perspective whenever I can. This first question comes from Mary.
She says, I think there is something you are missing
from what has caused normal people to be squeezed. And
I think the message Republicans need to focus solutions The
(14:20):
area of the economy that are way out of line
even with today's inflation rates, are where government has socialized
some of the industry. That is true. Health insurance, not
just the ACA, but Medicaid and Medicare are driving of
costs for everyone. So yes, healthcare costs are up. The
Kaiser Family Foundation founds that private health insurance in the
last five years of twenty four percent way past you know,
(14:42):
people's earning rates, but I don't believe that it's Medicare
Medicaid that are responsible. I was trying to figure out
how you meant that, and I was showing a blank.
I don't think it's involved in raising premium rates unless
you're talking about the cost of and whatnot, because the
government's paying for part of that. Maybe it's a met mayor.
(15:04):
I was trying to figure out. I really couldn't. I
couldn't do it. It's not directly related to on Medicare
and Medicaid. Secondly, housing, local, locally zoning and rent controls,
national immigration policy, fanning Man and Freddie mac Immigration obviously
matters a lot towards housing. It's not just supply, it
is demand. You have a lot more people come in
the country, a lot more housing is needed. And then
(15:25):
there's that's obvious with zoning. Here's the thing. I don't
hate zoning laws. I know that it is the biggest,
biggest thing that everyone's jumping on. It's like, oh, let's
end zoning laws and zoning laws of the problem. There
is an apartment building near where I grew up in
Queens and it's it's not built yet. There's two coming up.
There's and have eight hundred and fifty apartment units, no parking.
(15:50):
They're not building any parking for eight hundred and fifty units.
It is not near subway, it is not near public transportation,
and the road are singular single street roads. Do you
understand what a calamity you're building for that local neighborhood.
It is certain zoning laws are built to make communities function,
(16:15):
and I think people just need to realize that a
lot of what our housing issue is is because one
mass immigration bring in all these new people, and to
the hollowing out of so many regions of our country,
especially like rural regions where these people are moved. There's
more people living in more concentrated areas. Right, so you
(16:37):
have all these people wanted to live in the same
thirty five forty metropolitan areas. They have to try to
accommodate millions upon millions of Americans plus foreigners. And the
government is responsible for the infrastructure, but these private corporations
are profiting off of building as much as quickly as
they possibly can, and in many cases the infrastructure has
(16:59):
not met up with the rising population, and it causes
an overall decline in people's quality of life and I
just wish that that was a perspective that people had
when they talked about you know, the when I talk
about growth, I think that they should really evaluate in
the perspective of, let's grow, but let's do it in
a smart way where everyone's lives are miserable because traffic
(17:23):
is too large, because there's not enough schools, enough police,
there's not enough civil service. Things like that drive me crazy.
I'm not anti zoning laws like it's it's it is
one of the things I very much disagree with my
party overall on, but immigration, I'm one hundred percent with you.
And lastly, education, you say student loans have driven up
the cost of education. That's one hundred percent true. Student
(17:43):
loans are the reason that colleges keep going up and
up and up, and more you guarantee student loans, the
more the colleges will increase their numbers. If you bring
down student loan guarantees or limit them, you will have
whole areas where the numbers will decline. I will say
with education, with the popular change, especially less children, a
trend you will start seeing in the next decade is
(18:04):
school schools being consolidated and closing, especially primary schools. Something
to look out for. Next question comes from Michael from California,
says I'm looking forward to your upcoming episodes on campaigns
and getting started in politics. I'm so excited I listen
and watch on YouTube. Thank you so much, Michael. I'm very,
very honored that you listen to make my ask me anything.
(18:25):
Question is what path would you suggest for a person
who's interested in career change from educational politics. I'm a
teacher from public in private high schools with thirty years
of classroom experience. I teach advanced place in US government politics,
and my spare time for entertainment I consume with national
and California political news. I know I'm sick, but I
love this and I'm fairly wonky. My point is, as
I transition away from education and the classroom, I love
(18:46):
to redirect my time and passion in politics. I'm not
the type to run for office. I guess you must
have worked on campaigns or for an elected official, or
somewhere in the media covering political issues. Okay, so, first
of all, if you want, those are all very different careers, Michael, right,
Working in the media is not working on a campaign.
Working on a campaign is not working in an office, right,
(19:07):
so you have to kind of pick a lane. And
I would say, as you're still working in education, to
start kind of dipping your toes in different things to
see if you like them. This is twenty twenty six.
We have a big election coming up in California, the governorship,
you have, you have the state legislative elections going on there. Volunteer,
be an active member of a campaign, and see what
(19:30):
that is like being really part of a campaign. It
is thrilling. It is like a drug. I've done it
for so long, I don't know if I can even
get out of it because it's like a drug. But
see if you like that. It's not for everybody. So
I would say try that. Just try that in this
year while you're still there, if you and you volunteer
(19:50):
or host a fundraiser, or if you want to, you
can even try to organize people to sit there and
make sure they get out a vote. Figure out me
and which which one you want to tap into. This
is a super string year in California because there's two
main Republicans running for governor. In California's then called a
jungle primary, so basically everybody Republican Independent Green Party. Everybody
(20:11):
runs together in one election and then the top two
run in November. Well, a couple of years ago there
was one congressional district, District thirty one right in LA,
where the two Republicans came in first and second and
locked all the Democrats out of a Democratic district. This year,
Republicans have two candidates that are right now polling in
first and second. In the last open election, there was
(20:35):
not a was not incumbent, so Nott Gavenusom was twenty
eighteen and the Republicans got a combined thirty six percent
of the vote. If they can get thirty seven thirty
eight to thirty nine percent this time, there are nine
main Democrats running, there is a possibility up by a
small possibility, but possibly for Republicans if they organize and
if they turn up in big numbers in this primary
(20:58):
and Democrats Day splintered that they could lock the Democrats
out of the November election and pick up the California governorship.
It is worth spending your interest and your time volunteering
for that kind of campaign. If you don't want to
do campaign work, you want to work for an office.
I don't know how close short to Sacramento, but there's
obviously all these local offices. You could sit there and
apply for a job for figuring out it's not as sexy,
(21:19):
not as glamorous. A lot of constituent service stuff. A
lot of people are arguing over trees or things overgrown.
If that's what you like, God love you. It's a
very important service they do. And media is an entirely
different aspect, and there's a million different kinds of jobs.
Media is a tough industry, but there's like the La
Post is coming up there and to cover California politics.
So there's a lot of stuff that's going on that's
(21:42):
happening right now in California. So there's spots, but they're
very different careers. So I would say try one of
the other end, see what you like best. Don't if
you don't have to do a career, because you sound
like you've worked in education for thirty years, do something
you really really are passionate about, and just figure out
the lane. Is my first piece of advice, Okay. Brian
Fox writes to me, ponder me, this what the European
(22:05):
continent would look like had World War Two not taken
an entire generation of men and women. How might both
political economic conditions have been impacted? And do you believe
this would change the attitudes towards economic migration today? Oh
my gosh, Brian, this is a great question because I
think about this so often. Can I tell you The
other day, I'm sitting there and I'm all quiet, and
(22:26):
a family member of mine looks over me. What are
you thinking about? I was like, I'm thinking about the
reign of terror from the French Revolution? What are you
thinking about? Like, of course thinking about this. I think
about things like this all the time. So I've been thinking, like, so, yeah,
if the World War World War two or World War one,
World one and worl War two had not happened, there
would be If both world wars had not happened, which
(22:48):
I know you said world War two, but both had
not happened, there would be one hundred and ninety million
more Europeans alive today than there are right. There'd be
forty million plus more Germans and Russians, thirty eight million
more Poles, There'd be fifteen to twenty five million more Brits,
Italian and French combined. It would just there be tens
(23:08):
of millions of more people. Right, That means more GDP,
more economic prosperity, more people, but also the functionality. What
World War One and World War Two did was they
broke colonialism. Right. The British Empire fundamentally died because all
their men died fighting Germany. The German Empire. All the
great empires of the West except for the United States
(23:31):
ended because of those two wars because they killed everybody.
The Russian Empire, Austro Hungarian, Ottom and all those empires
are just gone because of that. So those empires would
have lasted, Colonialism would have lasted for decades afterwards. Who
knows what the conditions would have been in the Third World,
what they could have done, because remember, I mean, I
(23:53):
know colonialism is bad, bad, bad, but the colonial colonization
builds most of the infrastructure that many of the places
enjoyed to get their first you know, irrigation, to get plumbing,
to get you know anything. If you look at like
a place like Somalia, almost all that was built by
the Italians back in like the nineteen tens and twenties.
So maybe had that continued for several decades, the impoverishment
(24:18):
wouldn't have been so severe on the part of the
Third World, and possibly the independent movements would have been
a little bit less haphazardly done. They were pretty much
carved up seventeen different ways because of because of just
(24:38):
people breaking up. Also, I mean, there were no Israel.
Think about that. If there was no there was no
World War two and no World War One, especially if
we're no War one, the British would have never taken
the region and no World War two, and it's likely
that they would have not gotten nationhood. So it would
just be a different world. It's fascinating to think about,
but it's it's so hard to answer. Okay, last question,
(25:00):
this one, and I've received this from multiple people. This
question is what do you do and when you're not
on board with the vek Ramaswami for governor? This is
the question, given the current lay of the land in Ohio,
where is the primary is effective effectively the election? What's
the best strategic play for conservatives who aren't fully on
board with the vak Ramaswami should be looking for a
(25:21):
viable primary challenger, supporting a strong independent conservative with values
or is it better to stay unified even if the
candidate isn't ideal? Just to avoid fragmentation. Okay, I really
don't like the Vekaramaswami. I don't know if I made
that clear in that one episode. And by the way,
to the ARNS member who said I was a little
too hot under the collar, I apologize. I am Italian.
(25:43):
I do get too passionate. But I will sit there
and say this your I think everyone who's going to
be in the field is in the field, right So
if you don't like the VAC there's all the Republicans running.
They have a very small chance of getting winning, but hey,
throwing your support, that's who you want to do. You
have the right conscience to sit there and do it
if you really can't. Even if that happens, right, there
(26:05):
hasn't been a Democrat elected to the governorship of Ohio
since Ted Strickland, which was, like I guess, maybe sixteen
years ago, and he was a one term Democrat. If
you sit there and say v VEX our nominee, I
don't want to vote for him. And we live in
a red enough state already, what should I do? I
(26:26):
say this, support whoever you won the primary, and then
spend your time and energy voting for the Republicans. For
the state legislature. Remember, the Republican Ohio State Senate is
seventy three percent Republican, the State Senate of Ohios for
seventy percent Republican, and the State House is sixty six
percent Republican. Even if you don't like the VEC, and
(26:47):
even if the VEC VVEX somehow loses because he is
an extraordinarily unlikable candidate and the Democrat wins, it is
not the end of the world. Because the Ohio State
Legislature is super majority of Republican. The Democratic governor will
get be able to get very very very little done
(27:07):
with how Republican the state legislature is. So I say,
focus your time and energy on a race, on a
local race that matters. Vote for whoever you want on
the top of the ticket. Don't vote at all, you know,
vote your conscience. I don't believe that in the case
of where you really don't like somebody. OKAYL says I
did not vote for Mitt Romney in twenty twelve, I
(27:29):
really really And this is in twenty twelve, this is
before it became popular. Says I really didn't like Paul Ryan.
I thought he was full of it. I mean, I
just thought he was full of it. I thought he
was a liar. I thought they were propping him up
as leader of the party. I didn't buy into his
plans for the budget. I just thought that he was awful.
I didn't hate Mitt Romney. I really did not like
Paul Ryan with every fiberund body, and I didn't vote
(27:52):
for him. And in the end of the day, I
vote didn't make a difference. But I didn't have to
vote for him. And that's kind of my logic behind things.
If you really don't like somebody, like really have a
very difficult time voting for them. Yeah, skip it, skip it,
vote independent, vote for whoever you want. Don't vote with
the Democrat. I wouldn't vote for the Democrat, but vote
(28:12):
for somebody else who you believe in, and if they lose,
it doesn't matter because that one vote didn't change the
entire election. And as long as there's a Republican state legislature,
oh hi, that was going to be fine, right, super
majority of the state legislature. Doesn't matter who's governor, They're
going to run the show. That's my episode. Happy New Years, guys,
I am so happy to be back. I am so
happy to be able to talk again, and I am
(28:34):
so happy with you guys. I'll be here every Monday,
Wednesday and Friday, so please like and subscribe and I
will be seeing you guys on Wednesday