January 2, 2026 • 32 mins
In the second hour, Dick Fain and Hugh Millen chat with Mike Holmgren about the big game tomorrow between Seattle and San Francisco, Sam Darnold, the coaching edge and more with the game, then Millen reviews some stats that could decide the contest.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
What's part of our non stop coverage of the NFL.
(00:02):
Your home for the twelfth Man proudly presents former Seahawks
head coach and Super Bowl champion Mike Hombgrid Brought to
you by Toyota of Kirkland. The championship team at Toyota
of Kirkland does all the little things that exceed your
expectations and that's what makes Toyota of Kirkland so special.
And by R and R Foundation specialist serving Western Washington
(00:24):
for over twenty years now. From the five twenty Bar
and Grail in Bellevue, Mike Holmgrid with Softie and Dick.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Well usually on a Thursday from the five to twenty
Bar and Girl'll be back there next week talking about
hopefully a number one seed Seattle Seahawks team on a
buy in the first round of the playoffs. But we
got a lot of work, a lot of heavy lifting
to get to until then. But he's joining us today,
so kindly enough to join us on a Friday, Coach,
how are you.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Good, Dick?
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Happy New year, half new year you Hi, Happy new year, Coach.
Speaker 5 (00:57):
Happy New Year to you as well, Coach.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
And you know this is just a fun time a
special week we were talking about earlier in the show,
just the fourth time ever that a winner gets the
one seed and a loser goes to the wild card
in NFL playoff history.
Speaker 5 (01:13):
So it's going to be a special time down in
a place that you know very very well in the
Bay Area.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Just kind of give us your general thoughts as you
get anticipating the kickoff tomorrow at five o'clock.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Well, you know, it's gonna it's gonna be a great game,
and you got two really fine football teams that have
had extraordinary seasons thus far, and now it's the first
step in the road to the super Bowl. You know,
whoever wins obviously has a little easier trek because they
have to buy and all that kind of stuff. But
still it's just the first step in two or three
(01:47):
games getting you there to the super Bowl. So no,
I am so excited and looking forward to this. And
I think a lot of the teams, well, they both
have outstanding records, their strengths are are different, in my opinion,
and so I'm looking for I'm looking for a great game.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
Well, let's pick up on that the strengths are different.
What do you see as the strengths for each side.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Well, I think you know that both teams are good
in all areas, but I think San Francisco has an
edge offensively really right now, and the Seahawks have the
edge defensively. Both special teams are pretty good, although I
give I give the kicker kickers for the Seattle a
little extra credit there. But it'll be interesting to see
(02:35):
how those things line up. You know, defense is strong
defense versus a strong offense and vice versus. So that's
what I'm thinking, and you know it's both teams. I
think you have done a good job of dealing with
some injury situations this season and they've overcome it. And
(02:55):
great coaches, great young coaches, and it's just going to
be one of those games.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Coach, you know, you haven't been in an exact situation
like this before with the win and you're the one seed,
but you've you know, you've been in must win situations.
You got to win the last game of the season
or you're not in the playoffs, or you're not the
division title. But you know, nineteen ninety nine, you had
to win an in game against the Jets that didn't
go well, so you had to wait for the Raiders
(03:21):
Chiefs game, which was on after your game. So I
was wondering, what's more nerve racking coaching in a game
that you must win or sitting watching a game on
TV that you must go your way or else you're
not going to make the playoffs. And incidentally, thank god
to Pete Soyanovitch who the missed the field goal and
(03:41):
the Raiders came in and kicked a thirty three yarder,
so the Seahawks were able to go to the playoffs
in nineteen ninety nine.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
No, you know what, that was unbelievable, and Dick, you know,
I was kind of over that, and now you're bringing
it up again. I'm starting to get a little heartburn,
you know. No, wait, that's season. And that season, if
you remember, we were eight and two and then kind
of literally fell apart down the stretch, you know, and
there were reasons for that, but I won't go into those.
(04:09):
But we were playing the Jets and they didn't have
their quarterback and they beat us and we It was awful.
I went into the locker room and I was about
as low as I could get, you know, and then
all of a sudden, someone came up at me. In
the locker room and said, hey, the Raiders won. They won,
(04:30):
and they were in the playoffs. You know. So I
went from a low, low, low to kind of feeling
good about it again, but really disappointed. I'm very disappointed
how we finished that season.
Speaker 4 (04:44):
Mike homegrin with us. Mike Don James in nineteen ninety
nine told the Seattle Times I'm paraphrasing, but he said,
the big game is always the one you lose. They
never want to give you credit for the one you win.
And the reason I bring that up is Sam Donald.
It just for whatever reason, there's this refrain that you
(05:06):
know that he hasn't won a big game or words
to that effect. And yet last season on December twenty ninth,
the Vikings beat the Packers to put themselves in a
position to have the big game, and Donald threw for
like three hundred and seventy yards three touchdowns, and his
teammates literally put him on their shoulders in the locker.
(05:26):
You can see it on the video and YouTube. The
week before that, he had a great game beating Seattle
and others to get to fourteen and three. To make
that last game pivotal. I feel like it's it's days
all vous Oliver. People are gonna forget that he came
back in the RAM game, in the fourth quarter and
the overtime and made the place to win that game,
and everybody's just going to be hanging this. Okay, Sam
(05:47):
Donald got to win the big one type of thing.
What's your take about that whole narrative surrounding Sam Donald?
Speaker 3 (05:56):
You know, Hugh, I couldn't agree with you more. I
felt that way all along. You know's he's played very
well for the Seahawks. He's one of the main reasons
they are where they are. And you know, yeah, he
had those two games last year, but every quarterback that's
ever played, every quarterback that's ever played, has been in
(06:20):
a situation where they lost a tough game and their
team was expected to win. And so no, I think
he'll be a big part of the success the Seahawks
are going to have, you know, moving forward for the
rest of the year. But I don't think it's I
don't think it's fair at all. I think you know,
they talked about his turnovers, Okay, yeah, but you know
the turnovers, some of them. Every quarterback that's ever played
(06:43):
would turn the ball over if you got the ball
in the air and they hit your arm. Everyone, everyone,
you know. And then so there are some there are
some you'd want to take back. There are some decisions
he has made that you want to take back. But
all in all, I've got a lot of faith in him.
I've got a lot lot of confidence in him. And
I think the people that are on that on that
(07:05):
in that car saying what you said, you know he
can't win the big one, all that, Ah, the heck
with him, you know, they don't know, they don't know.
And I think he's gonna be just fine.
Speaker 5 (07:16):
Well that makes three of us.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
I agree with you both, And I'll just piggyback on
Hughes thought, Well, guess what they're gonna say if Sam
Darnold wins this week. Well, he hasn't done it in
the playoffs yet, so let's see if Sam can succeed
in the playoffs. So, I mean, it's just it's never
going to continue for It's always going to continue for Sam,
unless I guess he has to rattle off and go
to the super Bowl or something. But Mike Holmgren joining
(07:39):
us here so gracious to join us on a Friday
afternoon outside of his normal time slot. Well, let's talk
a little bit more about Sam coach. I mean, there's
a thought that, you know, Sam gets in trouble when
the pocket collapses, when he gets muddied. He tries to
make plays. He's a gun slinger. He's not afraid to
throw the ball down the field. So there's a thought that, Okay,
(08:02):
can we rain him in just a little bit and
maybe sacrifice a few of the big plays for a
few less turnovers.
Speaker 5 (08:11):
Is that a way.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
That Mike McDonald and Clint Kubiak should be going about things,
or you just leave Sam the way he is.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
Well, I wouldn't use the term to rain him in.
I wouldn't do that. What I would do, however, is
you there are certain turnovers that you look at it.
You look, he's sitting in the room with you, You're looking
at the film, and you go and you correct it.
You know, you could don't do that. You know, that's okay,
you know that. I listen, you know, and you guys
(08:40):
knew me when I had a lot of hair. I
lost it all with far I lost it, you know,
because because of the fact that he would do that
as he got older, As he got older and we'd
have those meetings. Every year things changed, it got better,
and so I think that's what has to happen. You know,
no one's perfect. I mean, you played the position for
(09:02):
a long time. He knows and and and we know
the quarterback we have with the Seahawks right now is
a good one and he's proven it. And I think
now he's only been in the league. You correct me
if my mom with six years or seven or something like.
Speaker 4 (09:17):
That, yeah, and twenty years old.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Yeah, yeah, and now he's got a lot of years
ahead of him. But you're always good, like Dick, what
you said, you're always gonna have Well, it's the first step.
But we haven't gotten to the super Bowl. How many
quarterbacks in the history of the NFL you have gone
and won super Bowls, have gotten there and won super Bowls?
And how many have almost got there? But I was
(09:41):
lost those that number were far out numbers the ones
that get there, right, So and you know it's oh,
go ahead.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
Please, no, Mike, I'm sorry I interrupt you, Please finish
your thoughts.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
No, I just I just say, look at him that way,
look at him that way, and stay positive. That's all
I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
Well, and There's also the piece that how many quarterbacks
have won a Super Bowl with year one with the
quarterback on the team and year one with the offensive coordinator.
I don't believe it's ever really done. I know I
was on that Cowboy team when a young, upstart Green
Bay Packers were like, whoa. You could tell these are
(10:19):
these guys are coming. They got a new coach in
nineteen ninety two, and you know, maybe they're going to
challenge the Cowboys and I remember the Packers coming into
Cowboys Stadium and Mike, you probably remember that game in
the regular season and the Cowboys just put a bootstomp
on you guys because you're only in year two with
you and Brett Favor whatever. But you were building, you're building,
(10:41):
and it all came to fruition in a Super Bowl
win a few years later. But you know, it doesn't
happen often in year one. Mike, I want to ask you,
as we're talking about this, at some point in your
career as a quarterback coach, there had to have been
a quarterback that you thought was being a little bit
too convative, that he wasn't letting it go when there
(11:03):
were some opportunities to maybe get some chunk plays. I'm
not talking about go routes down the sideline, but maybe
an in cut or something intermediate somewhere or comeback whatever.
And then he's just he's Charlie checked down. He's just
not taking any chances, uh, to the point of stifling
the offense. Maybe had How do you handle that? Maybe
(11:24):
describe to us a situation where that happened, and what
you to do as a coach.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
You know, I equate that with coaching certainly, but then
also a youth and a number of snaps you've taken
it and what your what your career has been up
to this point. You know, I came into the league
and my first quarterback was Joe Montana. Now how lucky
can you get? You know? But then Steve came in following,
and Steve had a different style. He had not established
(11:54):
himself to Steve young he became yet and so you
know we had to do that differently. Then you get
Farv or Matt Hasselbeck or any of the guys that
followed John Gittna. What you do, I think, is you,
like I told you before you look at it, you know,
what you'd like him to do on this particular play
(12:15):
against that particular defense. If he doesn't do it, you
sit down and you find out what he's thinking. Why
didn't you do that? Why did you do this? Why
did you do this? See this guy take the throw?
I want you to take that throw right there. Well,
he didn't look open. I'm sounding. I'm telling you you
throw out there. He's going to catch the ball. Take
the throw. And so that's coaching, I mean. And if
(12:36):
the guy, if you see, you will see progress. You
will see the third year guy better is fourth year
if he's fortunate enough to stay I think with the
same coach and bring me in the same system, and
you see, you see the improvement.
Speaker 5 (12:52):
Mike.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
The Seahawks are banged up at the left tackle position.
They won't have Charles Cross, They may or may not
have Josh Jones. We'll talk to Greg Bell a little
bit later on today about what he thinks about the
possibility of Jones. It sounds like he might play leaning
that direction, but they may have to go to their
number three guy, a Maury Kaite, who they just activated
(13:15):
off the practice squad and the biggest Seahawk regular season game.
Speaker 5 (13:19):
Maybe of all times.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
So my question is how much do you change your
scheme when you have to go from your starting left
tackle to a backup left tackle, And then how much
would you have to change your scheme. Furthermore, if you
had to go to a practice squad guy at left tackle.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Well, I think the left tackle position, first of all,
is one of the most important positions on the team
because the right ended quarterback the guy you know, you're
protecting his backside, and the quarterback knows that, and so yeah,
I think it's a big deal. And if they have
to go to the number three I don't know this
young man, I really don't know him at all. But
(13:58):
if they have to go with the number three guy,
then and the forty nine ers, if let's say they
have a good rush rush guy on that side, or
they put somebody over there on him because of that,
you know, then you're gonna have to help him. You're
gonna have to chip with tight ends, You're gonna have
to chip with backs, because you know, that's asking a
(14:19):
lot of a guy who hasn't played against a particularly
really good team. So even Josh, if Josh plays, you know,
and he may say he's a little hurt or but
he plays, it's still a challenge, So you have to
think about that. Yes, to answer your question in your scheming,
you absolutely have to think of that.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
In a game like this, well, the concern might could
be and I hate to pick a scab here, but uh,
I can remember your Super Bowl against the Steelers. Ken
Hamlin was your starter, hell of a player. You lose him,
You know what, Mark Quen Manual is a pretty good backup,
and you didn't. It didn't seem to lose a heck
(14:58):
of a lot like you could manage that you could
win with Mark n Manuel. Then he goes down and
the drop off between two Manual down to three Etric
prew It. I think my memory is a little fuzzy,
but I think I remember doing this sports radio and
saying Etric Prewitt played a material role in all three
(15:18):
Steeler touchdowns and and you know, and it was the
third stringer that you just at that point, it's the
National Football League. It's really hard to win with third stringers.
Just just kind of speak to that one to two
might you can handle? Two to three can really gum
things up?
Speaker 3 (15:36):
That's right, And Dick fought up that other game you're
bringing up this one.
Speaker 5 (15:39):
Yeah, we're being really mean, to catch.
Speaker 4 (15:43):
All these seasons our swords, We're coming at you.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
Twenty twenty six is going to be better. I know
it is. But you know, you're you, You're exactly right.
I've thought of that. You know, I have thought of
that before. I don't care as worked up as I
used to be, but that that was a big factor
in that game. You say, hey, it's one player. No,
but it's one player in a key position. They're all
(16:09):
key positions, but in a very key position on your defense,
and that the other team took advantage of. And that
was a perfect example of what could happen if you
had to go to a third guy coach.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
I was on with the guys down in San Francisco
on the radio today and I just kind of casually
todd they we were talking about matchups. I just casually
tossed out the fact that all the you know, the
Hawks have the equal at coaching. I mean, there's no
coaching advantage here. The Hawks have the Kyle Shanahan of
the defensive side of the ball.
Speaker 5 (16:40):
I said, you know, the.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Hawks, Rams and Niners may have three of the top
five head coaches in the entire NFL, and they kind
of bristled. They were like, whoa, you know, they thought
I'd said something like Sam Darnold's, you know, as good
as Joe Montana or something like that. I mean, they
bristled that a little bit. I mean, did I overstep
my bounds there? Or is is should Mike McDonald already
(17:03):
be put in the pantheon with some of the great
coaches in the NFL?
Speaker 3 (17:09):
You know what? I was on with them? I was
on with the radio station there this morning myself, and
I said it a number of times, Dick, I said
a number of times, you have two coaches in this
game that are at right at the top of their game,
in the top of this league, even though they're young. Now,
I did say that Kyle's coached longer, been a head
coach longer than Mike. But you have one's defense, one's offense.
(17:33):
That's one of the great another part of this game,
of this particular game, that that's really interesting to watch
because of the defense versus offense matchup. And I don't
you're exactly right in what you're saying, you know, And
so yeah, it's okay to get those guys fired up
a little bit. That's good. That's good.
Speaker 4 (17:52):
So Mike in this game. It's some interesting numbers here.
The percentage of plays this is now on defense, okay,
sentenceive plays with five or more rushers, Seahawks not a lot.
They're twenty fifth in the league in that regard. Forty
nine Ers are twenty fourth. But when there are a
five man or more rush the Seahawks, they go to
(18:16):
number one in the NFL in terms of producing this
new stat called negative EPA expected points whatever that is.
The forty nine ers, however, Mike, when they blitzed, they're
twenty eighth. So the difference between first and twenty eight
So that's probably a good omen for Seattle that's had
some trouble protecting for Sam Darnold, at least with the
(18:39):
absence of Nick Bosa, they haven't been inclined to blitz.
When they do blitz, they haven't really created a lot
of havoc. Talk about what those numbers would mean to
you if you were the play caller for the Seahawks
going into this game.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
No, I would look at that and feel a little
bit better about it. You know, there's going to have
to pick that thing up, and you know the forty
nine ers are going to come after him. But here's
what I think is different. I think in Mike McDonald
you have a guy who say he's Russian five. To
your point, you're Russian five. But it's not always the
(19:16):
same five, It's not always the same side. He mixes
that up a lot uh to and then all of
a sudden there's a guy unblocked. Why is that because
the quarterback thought he had pressure on the left, he
sends the line that way, whoops, it's coming from the
right or vice versa. But I think that should work.
That that one stat, not every stat, but that one
(19:38):
stat works in the seahawks favor. There's no question about
it in my opinion.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Hey, coach, before we let you go and I changed
the subject on you for a second, and go to
college football. I mean, Old Miss got a huge win
last night over over Georgia and their former coach Lane
Kiffen reportedly is currently deciding how many assistants can actually
remain with Old Miss to coach him in the Final
four game next week. What what would you do if
(20:05):
you were in Lane Kiffin's situation. You're you've moved on
to LSU, your former teams playing in the Final Four.
You got coaches that want to stay at Ole Miss
to finish it out. But you've got a roster to fill.
The transfer portal open today. You need help. So what
what would you do in that situation. It's just a
(20:27):
craziness of college football right now.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
You know this, this this topic affects me the same
way as the referee topic affects oh you know, because
even when I'll get you, i'll get your answer your
question a second. But you said in the opening remarks
of what was happening that I think you mentioned the
(20:51):
young the quarterback at Washington sign a new deal four year. Okay,
I'm going I go, wait a second, wait a second.
He's still playing in college, isn't it, you know? And
I'm just going, oh man, anyway, So I don't know,
you know, Lane Kiffin, I think I don't think I
(21:13):
do that to those guys there, And I wouldn't do
that to the school that was so good to me,
even though I've got to work and get some things
done in my new school. I mean, I think I
would treat it that way, you know. But but look
at it's like you said, it's a different time and
it's crazy and they have to get I don't know
what they can do, but get a handle on some
(21:35):
of this stuff. Otherwise it's just it's like Pro football
in the first two years and then they go to
the NFL and that's year three, you know, because they're
hiring general managers, they're hiring coaches. The dates seem to
be a little screwed up on when the transfer portal starts,
you know, to affect those things, how coaches can leave
(21:57):
and when they can leave. You know, let's get some
consistency in it, if that's what you're going to do.
But you know, you asked a question of someone who
doesn't like it at all.
Speaker 5 (22:06):
Yeah, no, I totally understand. We don't like it either. Well, coach,
we appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
We promise, at least for the next couple of weeks,
we won't ask you anything about the nineteen ninety nine
game against the.
Speaker 5 (22:16):
Jets or the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
No, yo, No, all right, No, I can see I
can't see you right now, but I know you're both
smiling and I'm probably having a beer just because you work.
Speaker 4 (22:25):
We got our fingers crossed, yes, Sarah.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
Well, hopefully we're talking to you at the five twenty
on Thursday after a big Seahawks winning a one seed.
Speaker 5 (22:33):
I want to be talking about a bye week with
you next week. All right?
Speaker 3 (22:36):
Sounds good, man, sounds good.
Speaker 4 (22:37):
Thanks you so much.
Speaker 5 (22:38):
That's Mike calm Grin joining us.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Gracious to join us on a Friday, normally on a
Thursday from the five to twenty Bar and gro We've
got some interesting numbers going into going into this game
against San Francisco. We'll take a look at some of
those next on ninety three point three k Jarifa.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Now back to Football Friday, sponsored by Tito's Handmade Vodka
on your home for the NFL Sports Radio ninety three
point three.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Kicking all right, thanks to the coach, Mike Colgrin for
joining us.
Speaker 5 (23:05):
Last segment.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
Greg Bell from the T and T will join us
at five o'clock talking about the Seahawks injury situation, the
trip to San Francisco, all the preparations, what Sam Donald
told him yesterday. And then at six o'clock, Ryan Fowler
is going to join us from Alabama to talk about
one of the worst days in Alabama football history, at
(23:28):
least in recent history. Coming up at six o'clock. But
you know you when you and I were talking earlier,
on in the week and even last week about Sam
Donald's interceptions. You had brought up that you've done the
crunching and that the interceptions thrown by Sam Donald and
interceptions in general for a quarterback do not have a
(23:51):
high correlation to losing football games.
Speaker 5 (23:55):
And that got me thinking.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
I was like, all right, well, what if you could
come up on the nerd machine with some uh, some
statistics that actually do lend themselves a high correlation to
winning And how good are the Seahawks in comparison to
some of these other elite teams in though, And so
as I asked you to a homework assignment and you
were the good being, the good student that you are,
(24:17):
you came through.
Speaker 5 (24:18):
So I'm gonna turn the turn the floor over to
you for a few minutes.
Speaker 4 (24:22):
So, okay, professor, I do this every every year at
the end of the season. And I said, well, you
know I can. I can do it one game before
because there's been a lot of talk about it and
what's the impact and so the this is coming from
the NFL stat portal. And when I talked before about
(24:42):
quarterback the quarterback ratings and I'll uh uh and and
the all the stats and I'll make a final comment
about just those quarterback stats and their correlation because the
stats that I have over three hundred columns of different
stats a right, not for the quarterbacks. But now what
(25:04):
I'm going to discuss is the NFL they give it
to you. It's the differential. So if I if I
search in the stat diff for differential, it gives me
all these So this would be a combination obviously of
how the offense does for the defense. It's not hard
to understand, and we correlate that to win percentage. So
(25:24):
let's just start with one that we all know. And
this is always hard for me because I don't want
to explain correlation and sound like you don't know. I
think everybody has a grasp of it. But we're going
to talk in terms. Well, we'll talk like a batting average, right,
because that's how correlation to discussed. But it also has
negative When you have negative correlation, one statistic goes up
(25:46):
while the other one goes down. That's a negative. But
let's just talk about turnover margin for this year, a
five to twelve correlation to winning, so kind of right
there at modern not insignificant, but and I've got twenty five.
There's no way in a radio second. I'm just the
most important ones that you got. I'm gonna go. So
(26:07):
just remember that five twelve, uh is a modern, modern correlation.
I'm gonna pick six different stats that are more than
two hundred points above five to twelve. I think of
a baseball player. You wouldn't hit five totals in a season,
but you might hit five twelve in a postseason. Right,
so think of the So everything I'm gonna say it
(26:29):
has a a correlation of seven to twelve or higher. Okay, okay,
first downs differential. So this is remembering this is an
offense and defense statistic that has a seven forty one correlation.
(26:51):
The Seahawks are eighth.
Speaker 3 (26:52):
Okay, okay.
Speaker 4 (26:55):
Passer rating, this is gonna be the one that has
the highest correlation. Really everything interesting. Passer rating differential. That
old relic passer rating ben around since nineteen seventy. It's
like the difference between a smart bomb and the military
and a dumb bomb that dropped the Vietnam All right,
but it's been around and guess what it has an
eight oh nine. Now eight oh nine the differential. Now,
(27:19):
so this is you're talking offense and defense. So we're
gonna have higher correlation numbers to winning eight oh nine correlation.
The Seahawks are fourth in the NFL.
Speaker 5 (27:29):
I'm surprised of that low.
Speaker 4 (27:31):
Twenty yard plus twenty yards are more play differential the
seven to twenty eight correlation, Seattle's two. Now let's get
into some other ones. A few more explosive play differential,
which is a lot like what I just said, but
explosive plays are ten yard runs or twenty yard passes.
Explosive play differential has a seven forty four correlation the Seahawks.
(27:57):
The number is third plus thirty eight. That's number one.
Speaker 5 (28:00):
In the NFL.
Speaker 4 (28:00):
Number one yards per play differential seven to seventy one correlation.
The Seahawks number one in the NFL. Yards per attempt
differential by the two quarterbacks, what you do on offense,
what you do on defense, yards per attempt seven to
fifty one correlation, Seattle Seahawks number one in the NFL.
(28:21):
So there's I mean, now here's here's here's another stat
just as an aside. You know, the old thing, like
the biggest fallacy in sports analysis is people say, look
when a certain team runs for one hundred yards. Their
record is blank, right, And I always say it's nonsense.
They are not winning because they're running. They're running because
(28:43):
they're winning, right, They're running this Secon in the fourth
quarter to sault the game.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Way.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
So rush yards differential is seven oh five and Seattle's
four fourth but in the first half rush yards, which
would speak to mind that the correlation drops from seven
to five to two eighty seven.
Speaker 5 (29:03):
Really, yeah, it doesn't matter that much the.
Speaker 4 (29:08):
First yeah, exactly, because what the good teams, you know
what they do. They throw the ball, they mix it up,
they're aggressive, they get a lead, and they run the
ball at the end, and then they say, oh when
they get to twenty five attempts or when they get
to one hundred yards. All right, now, I promise you
I'd revert back to the quarterback stats. I'm looking at
(29:31):
three hundred and five columns. Now. A couple of them
are just having to do is wins and lost scores.
So it's called about three hundred and two columns and
fumbles lost. You know how we're doing all this hand ringing. Yeah,
quarterback fumbles lost has a ninety four ninety four correlation,
(29:52):
which is almost basically it's like saying, do you have
blue gatorade in the jug or purple? It's got next,
and by the way, it's it's a positive. So actually,
teams that are quarterbacks who are fumbling the ball or
winning more just by a sliver. It's just as a
slight correlation of the three hundred and two or three
relevant statistics, the one that has the very highest six
(30:18):
seventy three. Remember now, this is not differential. This is
just quarterbacks. Okay, six seventy three is astronomical correlation. It
is yards per dropback. Let's talk about what that means.
It's not yards per pass attempt. Yards per dropback means this.
If Sam Donald takes a sack that hits his yards
(30:38):
per dropback. If Sam Donald or or Lamar Jackson has
a dropback and then a scramble and he runs for
eighteen yards, that's part of yards per dropback. Yards per
dropback is the number one statistic.
Speaker 6 (30:54):
Out of over three hundred quarterback stats. Wow, from the
NFL six to seventy three correlation. Guess what Sam Darnold
is ranked in the number one correlation of over three
hundred quarterback stats by the NFL.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
What's he ranked number one?
Speaker 2 (31:09):
Number one, number one, number one, number one.
Speaker 4 (31:13):
So we've got Funnel's loss at ninety four, we've got
yards were drawback at six seventy three.
Speaker 5 (31:19):
And you already said yet interceptions.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
Barely interceptions this year is one to fifteen. Guess what,
that's pretty low correlation. That's pretty insignificant.
Speaker 5 (31:29):
But it's positive positive yep.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
So the fumble now last year was negative, oh, twenty eight,
you'd expect it to be negative. Year before that was
positive two fifteen. I'm not going to go to them
all over the last six years, three of them been negative,
three have been positive. But but uh, the aggregate is
thirty three to the positive. It's basically insignificant. Now, I'm
(31:51):
not saying throwing interceptions is insignificant, but you're gonna have
to wrap your those stats. I'm not making it up.
They don't mean nothing. There is a story embedded in
those statistics. But let me say it for the last time,
out of over three hundred stats, the highest correlation six
seventy three. Sam Darnold is number one quarterback in the
(32:12):
National pta League for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
You get an A plus. This professor gives you an
A plus for that Segment four
What's part of our non stop coverage of the NFL.
(00:02):
Your home for the twelfth Man proudly presents former Seahawks
head coach and Super Bowl champion Mike Hombgrid Brought to
you by Toyota of Kirkland. The championship team at Toyota
of Kirkland does all the little things that exceed your
expectations and that's what makes Toyota of Kirkland so special.
And by R and R Foundation specialist serving Western Washington
(00:24):
for over twenty years now. From the five twenty Bar
and Grail in Bellevue, Mike Holmgrid with Softie and Dick.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Well usually on a Thursday from the five to twenty
Bar and Girl'll be back there next week talking about
hopefully a number one seed Seattle Seahawks team on a
buy in the first round of the playoffs. But we
got a lot of work, a lot of heavy lifting
to get to until then. But he's joining us today,
so kindly enough to join us on a Friday, Coach,
how are you.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
Good, Dick?
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Happy New year, half new year you Hi, Happy new year, Coach.
Speaker 5 (00:57):
Happy New Year to you as well, Coach.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
And you know this is just a fun time a
special week we were talking about earlier in the show,
just the fourth time ever that a winner gets the
one seed and a loser goes to the wild card
in NFL playoff history.
Speaker 5 (01:13):
So it's going to be a special time down in
a place that you know very very well in the
Bay Area.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Just kind of give us your general thoughts as you
get anticipating the kickoff tomorrow at five o'clock.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Well, you know, it's gonna it's gonna be a great game,
and you got two really fine football teams that have
had extraordinary seasons thus far, and now it's the first
step in the road to the super Bowl. You know,
whoever wins obviously has a little easier trek because they
have to buy and all that kind of stuff. But
still it's just the first step in two or three
(01:47):
games getting you there to the super Bowl. So no,
I am so excited and looking forward to this. And
I think a lot of the teams, well, they both
have outstanding records, their strengths are are different, in my opinion,
and so I'm looking for I'm looking for a great game.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
Well, let's pick up on that the strengths are different.
What do you see as the strengths for each side.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
Well, I think you know that both teams are good
in all areas, but I think San Francisco has an
edge offensively really right now, and the Seahawks have the
edge defensively. Both special teams are pretty good, although I
give I give the kicker kickers for the Seattle a
little extra credit there. But it'll be interesting to see
(02:35):
how those things line up. You know, defense is strong
defense versus a strong offense and vice versus. So that's
what I'm thinking, and you know it's both teams. I
think you have done a good job of dealing with
some injury situations this season and they've overcome it. And
(02:55):
great coaches, great young coaches, and it's just going to
be one of those games.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Coach, you know, you haven't been in an exact situation
like this before with the win and you're the one seed,
but you've you know, you've been in must win situations.
You got to win the last game of the season
or you're not in the playoffs, or you're not the
division title. But you know, nineteen ninety nine, you had
to win an in game against the Jets that didn't
go well, so you had to wait for the Raiders
(03:21):
Chiefs game, which was on after your game. So I
was wondering, what's more nerve racking coaching in a game
that you must win or sitting watching a game on
TV that you must go your way or else you're
not going to make the playoffs. And incidentally, thank god
to Pete Soyanovitch who the missed the field goal and
(03:41):
the Raiders came in and kicked a thirty three yarder,
so the Seahawks were able to go to the playoffs
in nineteen ninety nine.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
No, you know what, that was unbelievable, and Dick, you know,
I was kind of over that, and now you're bringing
it up again. I'm starting to get a little heartburn,
you know. No, wait, that's season. And that season, if
you remember, we were eight and two and then kind
of literally fell apart down the stretch, you know, and
there were reasons for that, but I won't go into those.
(04:09):
But we were playing the Jets and they didn't have
their quarterback and they beat us and we It was awful.
I went into the locker room and I was about
as low as I could get, you know, and then
all of a sudden, someone came up at me. In
the locker room and said, hey, the Raiders won. They won,
(04:30):
and they were in the playoffs. You know. So I
went from a low, low, low to kind of feeling
good about it again, but really disappointed. I'm very disappointed
how we finished that season.
Speaker 4 (04:44):
Mike homegrin with us. Mike Don James in nineteen ninety
nine told the Seattle Times I'm paraphrasing, but he said,
the big game is always the one you lose. They
never want to give you credit for the one you win.
And the reason I bring that up is Sam Donald.
It just for whatever reason, there's this refrain that you
(05:06):
know that he hasn't won a big game or words
to that effect. And yet last season on December twenty ninth,
the Vikings beat the Packers to put themselves in a
position to have the big game, and Donald threw for
like three hundred and seventy yards three touchdowns, and his
teammates literally put him on their shoulders in the locker.
(05:26):
You can see it on the video and YouTube. The
week before that, he had a great game beating Seattle
and others to get to fourteen and three. To make
that last game pivotal. I feel like it's it's days
all vous Oliver. People are gonna forget that he came
back in the RAM game, in the fourth quarter and
the overtime and made the place to win that game,
and everybody's just going to be hanging this. Okay, Sam
(05:47):
Donald got to win the big one type of thing.
What's your take about that whole narrative surrounding Sam Donald?
Speaker 3 (05:56):
You know, Hugh, I couldn't agree with you more. I
felt that way all along. You know's he's played very
well for the Seahawks. He's one of the main reasons
they are where they are. And you know, yeah, he
had those two games last year, but every quarterback that's
ever played, every quarterback that's ever played, has been in
(06:20):
a situation where they lost a tough game and their
team was expected to win. And so no, I think
he'll be a big part of the success the Seahawks
are going to have, you know, moving forward for the
rest of the year. But I don't think it's I
don't think it's fair at all. I think you know,
they talked about his turnovers, Okay, yeah, but you know
the turnovers, some of them. Every quarterback that's ever played
(06:43):
would turn the ball over if you got the ball
in the air and they hit your arm. Everyone, everyone,
you know. And then so there are some there are
some you'd want to take back. There are some decisions
he has made that you want to take back. But
all in all, I've got a lot of faith in him.
I've got a lot lot of confidence in him. And
I think the people that are on that on that
(07:05):
in that car saying what you said, you know he
can't win the big one, all that, Ah, the heck
with him, you know, they don't know, they don't know.
And I think he's gonna be just fine.
Speaker 5 (07:16):
Well that makes three of us.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
I agree with you both, And I'll just piggyback on
Hughes thought, Well, guess what they're gonna say if Sam
Darnold wins this week. Well, he hasn't done it in
the playoffs yet, so let's see if Sam can succeed
in the playoffs. So, I mean, it's just it's never
going to continue for It's always going to continue for Sam,
unless I guess he has to rattle off and go
to the super Bowl or something. But Mike Holmgren joining
(07:39):
us here so gracious to join us on a Friday
afternoon outside of his normal time slot. Well, let's talk
a little bit more about Sam coach. I mean, there's
a thought that, you know, Sam gets in trouble when
the pocket collapses, when he gets muddied. He tries to
make plays. He's a gun slinger. He's not afraid to
throw the ball down the field. So there's a thought that, Okay,
(08:02):
can we rain him in just a little bit and
maybe sacrifice a few of the big plays for a
few less turnovers.
Speaker 5 (08:11):
Is that a way.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
That Mike McDonald and Clint Kubiak should be going about things,
or you just leave Sam the way he is.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
Well, I wouldn't use the term to rain him in.
I wouldn't do that. What I would do, however, is
you there are certain turnovers that you look at it.
You look, he's sitting in the room with you, You're looking
at the film, and you go and you correct it.
You know, you could don't do that. You know, that's okay,
you know that. I listen, you know, and you guys
(08:40):
knew me when I had a lot of hair. I
lost it all with far I lost it, you know,
because because of the fact that he would do that
as he got older, As he got older and we'd
have those meetings. Every year things changed, it got better,
and so I think that's what has to happen. You know,
no one's perfect. I mean, you played the position for
(09:02):
a long time. He knows and and and we know
the quarterback we have with the Seahawks right now is
a good one and he's proven it. And I think
now he's only been in the league. You correct me
if my mom with six years or seven or something like.
Speaker 4 (09:17):
That, yeah, and twenty years old.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Yeah, yeah, and now he's got a lot of years
ahead of him. But you're always good, like Dick, what
you said, you're always gonna have Well, it's the first step.
But we haven't gotten to the super Bowl. How many
quarterbacks in the history of the NFL you have gone
and won super Bowls, have gotten there and won super Bowls?
And how many have almost got there? But I was
(09:41):
lost those that number were far out numbers the ones
that get there, right, So and you know it's oh,
go ahead.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
Please, no, Mike, I'm sorry I interrupt you, Please finish
your thoughts.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
No, I just I just say, look at him that way,
look at him that way, and stay positive. That's all
I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
Well, and There's also the piece that how many quarterbacks
have won a Super Bowl with year one with the
quarterback on the team and year one with the offensive coordinator.
I don't believe it's ever really done. I know I
was on that Cowboy team when a young, upstart Green
Bay Packers were like, whoa. You could tell these are
(10:19):
these guys are coming. They got a new coach in
nineteen ninety two, and you know, maybe they're going to
challenge the Cowboys and I remember the Packers coming into
Cowboys Stadium and Mike, you probably remember that game in
the regular season and the Cowboys just put a bootstomp
on you guys because you're only in year two with
you and Brett Favor whatever. But you were building, you're building,
(10:41):
and it all came to fruition in a Super Bowl
win a few years later. But you know, it doesn't
happen often in year one. Mike, I want to ask you,
as we're talking about this, at some point in your
career as a quarterback coach, there had to have been
a quarterback that you thought was being a little bit
too convative, that he wasn't letting it go when there
(11:03):
were some opportunities to maybe get some chunk plays. I'm
not talking about go routes down the sideline, but maybe
an in cut or something intermediate somewhere or comeback whatever.
And then he's just he's Charlie checked down. He's just
not taking any chances, uh, to the point of stifling
the offense. Maybe had How do you handle that? Maybe
(11:24):
describe to us a situation where that happened, and what
you to do as a coach.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
You know, I equate that with coaching certainly, but then
also a youth and a number of snaps you've taken
it and what your what your career has been up
to this point. You know, I came into the league
and my first quarterback was Joe Montana. Now how lucky
can you get? You know? But then Steve came in following,
and Steve had a different style. He had not established
(11:54):
himself to Steve young he became yet and so you
know we had to do that differently. Then you get
Farv or Matt Hasselbeck or any of the guys that
followed John Gittna. What you do, I think, is you,
like I told you before you look at it, you know,
what you'd like him to do on this particular play
(12:15):
against that particular defense. If he doesn't do it, you
sit down and you find out what he's thinking. Why
didn't you do that? Why did you do this? Why
did you do this? See this guy take the throw?
I want you to take that throw right there. Well,
he didn't look open. I'm sounding. I'm telling you you
throw out there. He's going to catch the ball. Take
the throw. And so that's coaching, I mean. And if
(12:36):
the guy, if you see, you will see progress. You
will see the third year guy better is fourth year
if he's fortunate enough to stay I think with the
same coach and bring me in the same system, and
you see, you see the improvement.
Speaker 5 (12:52):
Mike.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
The Seahawks are banged up at the left tackle position.
They won't have Charles Cross, They may or may not
have Josh Jones. We'll talk to Greg Bell a little
bit later on today about what he thinks about the
possibility of Jones. It sounds like he might play leaning
that direction, but they may have to go to their
number three guy, a Maury Kaite, who they just activated
(13:15):
off the practice squad and the biggest Seahawk regular season game.
Speaker 5 (13:19):
Maybe of all times.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
So my question is how much do you change your
scheme when you have to go from your starting left
tackle to a backup left tackle, And then how much
would you have to change your scheme. Furthermore, if you
had to go to a practice squad guy at left tackle.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Well, I think the left tackle position, first of all,
is one of the most important positions on the team
because the right ended quarterback the guy you know, you're
protecting his backside, and the quarterback knows that, and so yeah,
I think it's a big deal. And if they have
to go to the number three I don't know this
young man, I really don't know him at all. But
(13:58):
if they have to go with the number three guy,
then and the forty nine ers, if let's say they
have a good rush rush guy on that side, or
they put somebody over there on him because of that,
you know, then you're gonna have to help him. You're
gonna have to chip with tight ends, You're gonna have
to chip with backs, because you know, that's asking a
(14:19):
lot of a guy who hasn't played against a particularly
really good team. So even Josh, if Josh plays, you know,
and he may say he's a little hurt or but
he plays, it's still a challenge, So you have to
think about that. Yes, to answer your question in your scheming,
you absolutely have to think of that.
Speaker 4 (14:37):
In a game like this, well, the concern might could
be and I hate to pick a scab here, but uh,
I can remember your Super Bowl against the Steelers. Ken
Hamlin was your starter, hell of a player. You lose him,
You know what, Mark Quen Manual is a pretty good backup,
and you didn't. It didn't seem to lose a heck
(14:58):
of a lot like you could manage that you could
win with Mark n Manuel. Then he goes down and
the drop off between two Manual down to three Etric
prew It. I think my memory is a little fuzzy,
but I think I remember doing this sports radio and
saying Etric Prewitt played a material role in all three
(15:18):
Steeler touchdowns and and you know, and it was the
third stringer that you just at that point, it's the
National Football League. It's really hard to win with third stringers.
Just just kind of speak to that one to two
might you can handle? Two to three can really gum
things up?
Speaker 3 (15:36):
That's right, And Dick fought up that other game you're
bringing up this one.
Speaker 5 (15:39):
Yeah, we're being really mean, to catch.
Speaker 4 (15:43):
All these seasons our swords, We're coming at you.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
Twenty twenty six is going to be better. I know
it is. But you know, you're you, You're exactly right.
I've thought of that. You know, I have thought of
that before. I don't care as worked up as I
used to be, but that that was a big factor
in that game. You say, hey, it's one player. No,
but it's one player in a key position. They're all
(16:09):
key positions, but in a very key position on your defense,
and that the other team took advantage of. And that
was a perfect example of what could happen if you
had to go to a third guy coach.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
I was on with the guys down in San Francisco
on the radio today and I just kind of casually
todd they we were talking about matchups. I just casually
tossed out the fact that all the you know, the
Hawks have the equal at coaching. I mean, there's no
coaching advantage here. The Hawks have the Kyle Shanahan of
the defensive side of the ball.
Speaker 5 (16:40):
I said, you know, the.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Hawks, Rams and Niners may have three of the top
five head coaches in the entire NFL, and they kind
of bristled. They were like, whoa, you know, they thought
I'd said something like Sam Darnold's, you know, as good
as Joe Montana or something like that. I mean, they
bristled that a little bit. I mean, did I overstep
my bounds there? Or is is should Mike McDonald already
(17:03):
be put in the pantheon with some of the great
coaches in the NFL?
Speaker 3 (17:09):
You know what? I was on with them? I was
on with the radio station there this morning myself, and
I said it a number of times, Dick, I said
a number of times, you have two coaches in this
game that are at right at the top of their game,
in the top of this league, even though they're young. Now,
I did say that Kyle's coached longer, been a head
coach longer than Mike. But you have one's defense, one's offense.
(17:33):
That's one of the great another part of this game,
of this particular game, that that's really interesting to watch
because of the defense versus offense matchup. And I don't
you're exactly right in what you're saying, you know, And
so yeah, it's okay to get those guys fired up
a little bit. That's good. That's good.
Speaker 4 (17:52):
So Mike in this game. It's some interesting numbers here.
The percentage of plays this is now on defense, okay,
sentenceive plays with five or more rushers, Seahawks not a lot.
They're twenty fifth in the league in that regard. Forty
nine Ers are twenty fourth. But when there are a
five man or more rush the Seahawks, they go to
(18:16):
number one in the NFL in terms of producing this
new stat called negative EPA expected points whatever that is.
The forty nine ers, however, Mike, when they blitzed, they're
twenty eighth. So the difference between first and twenty eight
So that's probably a good omen for Seattle that's had
some trouble protecting for Sam Darnold, at least with the
(18:39):
absence of Nick Bosa, they haven't been inclined to blitz.
When they do blitz, they haven't really created a lot
of havoc. Talk about what those numbers would mean to
you if you were the play caller for the Seahawks
going into this game.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
No, I would look at that and feel a little
bit better about it. You know, there's going to have
to pick that thing up, and you know the forty
nine ers are going to come after him. But here's
what I think is different. I think in Mike McDonald
you have a guy who say he's Russian five. To
your point, you're Russian five. But it's not always the
(19:16):
same five, It's not always the same side. He mixes
that up a lot uh to and then all of
a sudden there's a guy unblocked. Why is that because
the quarterback thought he had pressure on the left, he
sends the line that way, whoops, it's coming from the
right or vice versa. But I think that should work.
That that one stat, not every stat, but that one
(19:38):
stat works in the seahawks favor. There's no question about
it in my opinion.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
Hey, coach, before we let you go and I changed
the subject on you for a second, and go to
college football. I mean, Old Miss got a huge win
last night over over Georgia and their former coach Lane
Kiffen reportedly is currently deciding how many assistants can actually
remain with Old Miss to coach him in the Final
four game next week. What what would you do if
(20:05):
you were in Lane Kiffin's situation. You're you've moved on
to LSU, your former teams playing in the Final Four.
You got coaches that want to stay at Ole Miss
to finish it out. But you've got a roster to fill.
The transfer portal open today. You need help. So what
what would you do in that situation. It's just a
(20:27):
craziness of college football right now.
Speaker 3 (20:30):
You know this, this this topic affects me the same
way as the referee topic affects oh you know, because
even when I'll get you, i'll get your answer your
question a second. But you said in the opening remarks
of what was happening that I think you mentioned the
(20:51):
young the quarterback at Washington sign a new deal four year. Okay,
I'm going I go, wait a second, wait a second.
He's still playing in college, isn't it, you know? And
I'm just going, oh man, anyway, So I don't know,
you know, Lane Kiffin, I think I don't think I
(21:13):
do that to those guys there, And I wouldn't do
that to the school that was so good to me,
even though I've got to work and get some things
done in my new school. I mean, I think I
would treat it that way, you know. But but look
at it's like you said, it's a different time and
it's crazy and they have to get I don't know
what they can do, but get a handle on some
(21:35):
of this stuff. Otherwise it's just it's like Pro football
in the first two years and then they go to
the NFL and that's year three, you know, because they're
hiring general managers, they're hiring coaches. The dates seem to
be a little screwed up on when the transfer portal starts,
you know, to affect those things, how coaches can leave
(21:57):
and when they can leave. You know, let's get some
consistency in it, if that's what you're going to do.
But you know, you asked a question of someone who
doesn't like it at all.
Speaker 5 (22:06):
Yeah, no, I totally understand. We don't like it either. Well, coach,
we appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
We promise, at least for the next couple of weeks,
we won't ask you anything about the nineteen ninety nine
game against the.
Speaker 5 (22:16):
Jets or the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
No, yo, No, all right, No, I can see I
can't see you right now, but I know you're both
smiling and I'm probably having a beer just because you work.
Speaker 4 (22:25):
We got our fingers crossed, yes, Sarah.
Speaker 2 (22:28):
Well, hopefully we're talking to you at the five twenty
on Thursday after a big Seahawks winning a one seed.
Speaker 5 (22:33):
I want to be talking about a bye week with
you next week. All right?
Speaker 3 (22:36):
Sounds good, man, sounds good.
Speaker 4 (22:37):
Thanks you so much.
Speaker 5 (22:38):
That's Mike calm Grin joining us.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
Gracious to join us on a Friday, normally on a
Thursday from the five to twenty Bar and gro We've
got some interesting numbers going into going into this game
against San Francisco. We'll take a look at some of
those next on ninety three point three k Jarifa.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
Now back to Football Friday, sponsored by Tito's Handmade Vodka
on your home for the NFL Sports Radio ninety three
point three.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Kicking all right, thanks to the coach, Mike Colgrin for
joining us.
Speaker 5 (23:05):
Last segment.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
Greg Bell from the T and T will join us
at five o'clock talking about the Seahawks injury situation, the
trip to San Francisco, all the preparations, what Sam Donald
told him yesterday. And then at six o'clock, Ryan Fowler
is going to join us from Alabama to talk about
one of the worst days in Alabama football history, at
(23:28):
least in recent history. Coming up at six o'clock. But
you know you when you and I were talking earlier,
on in the week and even last week about Sam
Donald's interceptions. You had brought up that you've done the
crunching and that the interceptions thrown by Sam Donald and
interceptions in general for a quarterback do not have a
(23:51):
high correlation to losing football games.
Speaker 5 (23:55):
And that got me thinking.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
I was like, all right, well, what if you could
come up on the nerd machine with some uh, some
statistics that actually do lend themselves a high correlation to
winning And how good are the Seahawks in comparison to
some of these other elite teams in though, And so
as I asked you to a homework assignment and you
were the good being, the good student that you are,
(24:17):
you came through.
Speaker 5 (24:18):
So I'm gonna turn the turn the floor over to
you for a few minutes.
Speaker 4 (24:22):
So, okay, professor, I do this every every year at
the end of the season. And I said, well, you
know I can. I can do it one game before
because there's been a lot of talk about it and
what's the impact and so the this is coming from
the NFL stat portal. And when I talked before about
(24:42):
quarterback the quarterback ratings and I'll uh uh and and
the all the stats and I'll make a final comment
about just those quarterback stats and their correlation because the
stats that I have over three hundred columns of different
stats a right, not for the quarterbacks. But now what
(25:04):
I'm going to discuss is the NFL they give it
to you. It's the differential. So if I if I
search in the stat diff for differential, it gives me
all these So this would be a combination obviously of
how the offense does for the defense. It's not hard
to understand, and we correlate that to win percentage. So
(25:24):
let's just start with one that we all know. And
this is always hard for me because I don't want
to explain correlation and sound like you don't know. I
think everybody has a grasp of it. But we're going
to talk in terms. Well, we'll talk like a batting average, right,
because that's how correlation to discussed. But it also has
negative When you have negative correlation, one statistic goes up
(25:46):
while the other one goes down. That's a negative. But
let's just talk about turnover margin for this year, a
five to twelve correlation to winning, so kind of right
there at modern not insignificant, but and I've got twenty five.
There's no way in a radio second. I'm just the
most important ones that you got. I'm gonna go. So
(26:07):
just remember that five twelve, uh is a modern, modern correlation.
I'm gonna pick six different stats that are more than
two hundred points above five to twelve. I think of
a baseball player. You wouldn't hit five totals in a season,
but you might hit five twelve in a postseason. Right,
so think of the So everything I'm gonna say it
(26:29):
has a a correlation of seven to twelve or higher. Okay, okay,
first downs differential. So this is remembering this is an
offense and defense statistic that has a seven forty one correlation.
(26:51):
The Seahawks are eighth.
Speaker 3 (26:52):
Okay, okay.
Speaker 4 (26:55):
Passer rating, this is gonna be the one that has
the highest correlation. Really everything interesting. Passer rating differential. That
old relic passer rating ben around since nineteen seventy. It's
like the difference between a smart bomb and the military
and a dumb bomb that dropped the Vietnam All right,
but it's been around and guess what it has an
eight oh nine. Now eight oh nine the differential. Now,
(27:19):
so this is you're talking offense and defense. So we're
gonna have higher correlation numbers to winning eight oh nine correlation.
The Seahawks are fourth in the NFL.
Speaker 5 (27:29):
I'm surprised of that low.
Speaker 4 (27:31):
Twenty yard plus twenty yards are more play differential the
seven to twenty eight correlation, Seattle's two. Now let's get
into some other ones. A few more explosive play differential,
which is a lot like what I just said, but
explosive plays are ten yard runs or twenty yard passes.
Explosive play differential has a seven forty four correlation the Seahawks.
(27:57):
The number is third plus thirty eight. That's number one.
Speaker 5 (28:00):
In the NFL.
Speaker 4 (28:00):
Number one yards per play differential seven to seventy one correlation.
The Seahawks number one in the NFL. Yards per attempt
differential by the two quarterbacks, what you do on offense,
what you do on defense, yards per attempt seven to
fifty one correlation, Seattle Seahawks number one in the NFL.
(28:21):
So there's I mean, now here's here's here's another stat
just as an aside. You know, the old thing, like
the biggest fallacy in sports analysis is people say, look
when a certain team runs for one hundred yards. Their
record is blank, right, And I always say it's nonsense.
They are not winning because they're running. They're running because
(28:43):
they're winning, right, They're running this Secon in the fourth
quarter to sault the game.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Way.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
So rush yards differential is seven oh five and Seattle's
four fourth but in the first half rush yards, which
would speak to mind that the correlation drops from seven
to five to two eighty seven.
Speaker 5 (29:03):
Really, yeah, it doesn't matter that much the.
Speaker 4 (29:08):
First yeah, exactly, because what the good teams, you know
what they do. They throw the ball, they mix it up,
they're aggressive, they get a lead, and they run the
ball at the end, and then they say, oh when
they get to twenty five attempts or when they get
to one hundred yards. All right, now, I promise you
I'd revert back to the quarterback stats. I'm looking at
(29:31):
three hundred and five columns. Now. A couple of them
are just having to do is wins and lost scores.
So it's called about three hundred and two columns and
fumbles lost. You know how we're doing all this hand ringing. Yeah,
quarterback fumbles lost has a ninety four ninety four correlation,
(29:52):
which is almost basically it's like saying, do you have
blue gatorade in the jug or purple? It's got next,
and by the way, it's it's a positive. So actually,
teams that are quarterbacks who are fumbling the ball or
winning more just by a sliver. It's just as a
slight correlation of the three hundred and two or three
relevant statistics, the one that has the very highest six
(30:18):
seventy three. Remember now, this is not differential. This is
just quarterbacks. Okay, six seventy three is astronomical correlation. It
is yards per dropback. Let's talk about what that means.
It's not yards per pass attempt. Yards per dropback means this.
If Sam Donald takes a sack that hits his yards
(30:38):
per dropback. If Sam Donald or or Lamar Jackson has
a dropback and then a scramble and he runs for
eighteen yards, that's part of yards per dropback. Yards per
dropback is the number one statistic.
Speaker 6 (30:54):
Out of over three hundred quarterback stats. Wow, from the
NFL six to seventy three correlation. Guess what Sam Darnold
is ranked in the number one correlation of over three
hundred quarterback stats by the NFL.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
What's he ranked number one?
Speaker 2 (31:09):
Number one, number one, number one, number one.
Speaker 4 (31:13):
So we've got Funnel's loss at ninety four, we've got
yards were drawback at six seventy three.
Speaker 5 (31:19):
And you already said yet interceptions.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
Barely interceptions this year is one to fifteen. Guess what,
that's pretty low correlation. That's pretty insignificant.
Speaker 5 (31:29):
But it's positive positive yep.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
So the fumble now last year was negative, oh, twenty eight,
you'd expect it to be negative. Year before that was
positive two fifteen. I'm not going to go to them
all over the last six years, three of them been negative,
three have been positive. But but uh, the aggregate is
thirty three to the positive. It's basically insignificant. Now, I'm
(31:51):
not saying throwing interceptions is insignificant, but you're gonna have
to wrap your those stats. I'm not making it up.
They don't mean nothing. There is a story embedded in
those statistics. But let me say it for the last time,
out of over three hundred stats, the highest correlation six
seventy three. Sam Darnold is number one quarterback in the
(32:12):
National pta League for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
You get an A plus. This professor gives you an
A plus for that Segment four
Dave 'Softy' Mahler and Dick Fain News
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