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December 5, 2025 40 mins

In the first hour, Dick Fain and Hugh Millen talk about the Seahawks as they enter the weekend with a top defense, chance at a top seed, and facing the Falcons on Sunday, then share one final Fact or Fiction pick before getting Lee Sterling’s best football bets.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
That's part of our relentless coverage of the NFL. It's
a football Friday sponsored by Tito's Handmade Vodka, proud sponsor
of the Seahawks, distilled in modeled by Fifth Generation Ain't Koston,
Texas forty percent alcohol, my volume saber responsibly.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
This crowd is going nut.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Football Friday is on with Saftie and Dick on Sports
Radio ninety three point three kJ r FM.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
It is a football Friday, and if you don't like football,
you probably.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Shouldn't be listening between now and three.

Speaker 3 (00:38):
It's been between now at seven o'clock today because it's
gotta be pretty darn close to one hundred percent football
between a little high school talk in the six o'clock
hour with our friend with our friend Todd Millis from
Varsity WA News. We got state championships coming up on
the am dialable tonight and tomorrow night at seven o'clock,
we got some.

Speaker 2 (00:57):
College football to talk is.

Speaker 3 (00:58):
We'll replay the the meaty parts of the Jedfish interview
that'll be coming up at four o'clock and will allow
you to respond to that. We'll get our takes on
what Jed had to say to Softy and I a
couple of days ago, and then of course we will
start with the Seattle Seahawks here in the three o'clock
hours they get set to take on the Falcons, and
Hugh Breed love Millon, former Atlanta Falcon quarterback Hugh Breed

(01:21):
love Millon, joins us here on nine three point three
kJ R. If I'm not exactly you're the most glamorous
years of your NFL career, would you say that's a
fair well?

Speaker 4 (01:31):
I was a backup, started three games one two of them.

Speaker 3 (01:34):
Thanks.

Speaker 4 (01:35):
Yeah, I probably have a higher win percentage in a couple.

Speaker 2 (01:37):
Of those guys.

Speaker 5 (01:38):
But I enjoyed Atlanta. I don't think it's dripping with
fervor for the NFL game. You know, you always had
to sense that Athens, what was happening up up north
to the Northeast was a little bit more top of mind.
But you know, I think Seattle is going to benefit

(01:59):
from a rowlatively benign environment.

Speaker 2 (02:02):
Yeah, I don't think there's any question about that.

Speaker 3 (02:04):
And you know, I don't know if we can learn
much of anything from this game. If the Seahawks go
in and win by twenty or twenty one points, I'm
not sure what you can learn from that game. I'm
not sure what you learn from last game against Minnesota.
You know, there's been so many of these games this year,
and it's just a testament to you know, how dominant,
particularly this defense has been, Hugh that you just there's

(02:26):
been so few angst ridden moments this Seahawks season, which
is totally foreign to us because even when Pete Carroll
had good teams, the way Pete Carroll kind of coached
was you were probably gonna have a one score game
in the fourth quarter. So even on those Seahawk teams
that won eleven, twelve, thirteen games, there are a lot

(02:48):
of games where we didn't know the outcome until there
was three four minutes left to go in the game.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
And this year it's been we've been really fortunate.

Speaker 3 (02:55):
We've been rolling to some big time wins very early
in football.

Speaker 5 (02:59):
Games, you're early, and of course last week and and
by the way, when you go epa per play defensively,
which is kind of an emerging stat that we were
talking about more and more because because we're realizing the correlation. Uh,
the game against the Vikings was the number one EPA
for the season for the Seahawks. Defensively, but it was

(03:20):
higher than any game that the LOB had in their
entire four year stretch where they led the NFL in
fewest points allowed. The best they ever had was was
in twenty fourteen against John Skelton of the Cardinals. Yeah, yeah,
so you know they were they're playing subpart of quarterbacks

(03:40):
back then as well. But but there's never been a
seven game stretch like Seattle's had. It's the highest uh
EPA per played defensively that Uh well, I haven't, I haven't.
You know, trace it back to ninety two. I just
went the four years of the LOB, right those four years,
and you knows number one in that regard. And they

(04:01):
bounced back by the way, their LOB of negative three
point sixty three against the Buccaneers was worse than any
game the LOB ever had. The worst the LBA ever
had was a negative two to sixty three. So that
to me speaks to Mike McDonald just having that weird
aberration of a game against the Buccaneers. Now there was

(04:22):
only seven starters before we're out, and yet the way
they have bounced back and just been dominant. But you
know things are going to pick up dick on the
schedule because because Seattle remaining schedule, this is the last
quote unquote easy game right now as it sits, the
Seattle has the fourth most difficult strength to schedule at

(04:43):
five ninety seven, tied with the Bears. Only the Colts,
Packers and Chargers have a more difficult schedule to close
out the season. And the Rams they're sitting back there
at twenty sixth in that capacity. So Seattle can four
to kick one and certainly can't kick one this sun.

Speaker 2 (05:02):
No, they can't. And you mentioned the analytics of the
EPA per play.

Speaker 3 (05:05):
I mean we have a DVOA as well that analyzes
these teams. In Seattle's right now is thirty nine point seven,
which means the according to this analytic, they're thirty nine
point seven percent better than the you know, dead average
team in the NFL. How does that compare whether they're
number one in the NFL? The Rams are number two
at two percentage points behind them at thirty seven point three.

(05:28):
India is third at way back at thirty point nine.
So there's there's a huge gap between the Seahawks, Rams
and the rest of the NFL in this analytic and
the thirty nine point seven that the Seahawks right now
would be the fourteenth highest in the history of the
NFL thirty nine point seven, Meaning the Seahawks are that

(05:50):
much better, according to this analytic than the rest of
the field. And that led me, you know, seeing that,
Hugh led me to this poll question I threw out
yesterday and I talked to Jackson about it, and.

Speaker 2 (05:59):
I want to want to ask you you this too.

Speaker 3 (06:01):
If there are these, at least analytically two dominant teams
in football, and Seattle and the Rams, both in the
same division, and they're also by Vegas, the two biggest favorites,
LA at plus four to fifty Seattle at plus seven
to fifty, nobody else is less than plus one thousand
to win.

Speaker 2 (06:20):
The Super Bowl?

Speaker 3 (06:22):
Would you take right now if you were handed door
number one, I'm gonna give you the Seahawks and the
Rams to win the Super Bowl? Or door number two,
I'm gonna give you the other thirty teams in the NFL.
Which would you Which would you vote for?

Speaker 5 (06:35):
I'd probably take the field just playing out the stats,
I mean, I think as you outline the math in that.

Speaker 2 (06:43):
Yeah, it's still not fifty to fifty.

Speaker 4 (06:44):
Really at the CEAH.

Speaker 5 (06:45):
So the Rams and Seahawks don't reach the fifty percent threshold.
So you know, I mean because obviously that that leaves
every team in the AFC alive. You know, I think
that the Eagles, the way they play defense and they've
got kind of got a way of play in the
snow and inclement weather, they could rise up and play
you know, ugly ball, but beat you. So I think

(07:08):
the goal for Seattle, you know, you know, your last
game is against the forty nine ers on January fourth.
When you hit get in that plane, there's only three objectives.
How many games did you win? And what's your seeding?
Hopefully that'll be high. Hopefully, see I'll be the NFC
West champions have a high seat. Hopefully their number one
seed that's suttainable. How healthy are they and on some
level do they feel like they're peaking? I think it's

(07:31):
very difficult. If we think back through the years, there
are very few teams that can can peak and just
ride a big old, you know, sixty foot wave all
the way through this season. I mean the first half
of the first month. The Bill it was the Bills
right October is saying, oh, look at the Colts. They

(07:51):
get the Colts were the best team. Everybody, every dog
the good teams. It's like that the dog has their
month in the sunshine roughly and then it's it's hard
to kind of keep all. It's like a British sports car,
you know in the old days. You know some of
those Austome Martins. They would really per but they could
they could get out a tune really quick. And so

(08:14):
I think that most teams through the years, I mean
I was on a Cowboy team in the back of
the bus. Troy was driving it, so I was just
in the back of the bus just watching. But you know,
that was one of you know, a team that, hey,
you could just be the best. Everybody knows it. From
September and every month. You don't really see that much anymore.
Certainly you don't see that this year. And I think

(08:35):
I think that for Seattle have a little bit of
a little offensively fine, there's still a chance to recrest.
You know, we played twelve games. Sam Darnold had had
one hundred and sixteen passer rating average in the first
six games, ninety three in the second six games. So
he's he's kind of he's kind of had a little dip,

(08:55):
but now we can we can kind of bounce and
rebound and and reach reached the heights, hopefully peaking going
going into early January.

Speaker 3 (09:03):
Is it easier to stay consistent at least winning when
you are a defensive dominated team. You've always used the
reference defense as a beehive and offense as a symphony.
I would think it's easier for that Aston Martin to
get out of tune offensively versus out of tune defensively.

Speaker 2 (09:19):
Is that fair?

Speaker 5 (09:20):
I think so?

Speaker 4 (09:21):
Yeah, I think I think so.

Speaker 5 (09:22):
Uh And and you know, you saw a little bit
of a of a I'm gonna call it a blessing
what happened with the Vikings and and and how they
kind of got pantsed with with respect to their blitz
pick up and some of their assignments. So I'm anticipating,
excuse me, I'm anticipating that they they spent extra time

(09:43):
in the walkthroughs, extra time in the meetings. They tightened
up their their operation with how to handle when when
a defense comes up and lines up five to six
across the board and seven across the board, and and
they're playing zone behind it. Generally you don't know who's blitzing,
and so they're limiting the big plays as the Vikings

(10:04):
were because they're playing zone not man behind these pressures,
and you know, it kind of caught Seattle on aware.
I think that they realized at halftime, Hey, let's just
limp through the rest of this game, Max Brosmer is
not going to beat us, and we'll we'll win, you know,
a muck mucked up game. And then we've got our

(10:24):
our six days to get our house in order with
respect to these blitzes, because you're going to see a
little bit of the same stuff from Raheem Morrise on Sunday.

Speaker 3 (10:33):
There's no question about it. And you know, just to
kind of close the door on the analytics. I was
spitting out with the d v o A because I
think some people might be listening.

Speaker 2 (10:40):
Some of them was thinking to say.

Speaker 3 (10:41):
Okay, what is what is dv O d v O
A matter like does did do you win Super Bowls?

Speaker 2 (10:46):
If you're number one in dv O A.

Speaker 3 (10:47):
Well, I took the last you know, in the last
four season, just a small sample set of the last
four years, and I just looked at the top what
were the top five d v O A teams at
the end of the regular season. And so you had
eight one seeds over the last four years, you've had
eight eight two seeds over the last four years, you've
had eight Super Bowl participants, and you've had four Super

(11:08):
Bowl champions. Well, how many of those teams were actually
in the top five DVOA at the end of the
regular season. All four Super Bowl champions, four for four,
were top five DVOA. Six of the eight Super Bowl
participants were top five DVA, six of the eight one
seeds were top five DWA, and six of the eight
two seeds were top five.

Speaker 2 (11:29):
So it doesn't mean nothing, It.

Speaker 3 (11:31):
Might not mean everything, for sure, there is definitely a
correlation there, so I think right now, and if you
look at what this team has done compared to other
great Seahawks teams, you know that the in two thousand
and five, if you just look at forget the analytics
and just look at point scored versus in points allowed.

(11:52):
You know, in two thousand and five they were second
in offense, seventh in defense, so solid in both. In
twenty thirteen they were ninth in offense, number one in defense.
Twenty fourteen they were tenth in offense, number one in defense.
Twenty twelve they were ninth in offense, number one in defense,
and again they're top five in.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
Both this year.

Speaker 3 (12:13):
So the years that we have had top ten in
both offense and defense, they have been Super Bowl seasons
or in the case of you know, twenty twelve, nearly
super Bowl seasons. I mean, is this is this team
that good? Does this team compare to in your opinion,
those top three or four teams we've ever seen this

(12:35):
franchise have.

Speaker 5 (12:36):
I think it certainly has the potential. I mean, they're
gonna have to do it. We're gonna have to see
December eighteenth, let's on the nineteenth. Let's have this discussion
in earnest. But you know, I think there's been a
feeling that the defense can be epic and just pull
the offense along. And when you're getting everybody healthy, you
got young guys like Emon Worried Now that are just

(13:00):
making a big impact, Byron Murphy and you know, Leonard Williams.
I just hope that you know, to me, there's this
kind of this nexus of of opportunity where you got
all this youth and Seattle is I know, in the
top five youngest. I think that I think it's fifth
by the average ranking. They're the fifth youngest team in
the NFL. And I just feel like the defense is

(13:21):
confused with so much youth, but Leonard Williams is the
best player, right. So it's it's kind of this odd
dichotomy that from a timing standpoint. We talk about this
a lot in baseball. Hey, you know, are we still
going to have the pitching staff when it hits with
the with the with the lineup, and and I look
at the defense and I say, okay, strike while the

(13:41):
iron's hot. You know, you did things like sheahed you know,
fourth and a fifth is a lot for a s
that's got to pick up, you know. But that to
me was kind of a move, like, hey, we're in
that window. We see what Sam Darnold is. He's twenty
eight years old, he's he's figured how to play this
game defensively.

Speaker 4 (13:59):
They are so talented.

Speaker 5 (14:01):
And and and yet it's to me that that window
of Leonard Williams, and I know there's Jared Reid and
there's exceptions, but basically to me, it's Leonard Williams as
the star, and who's an older player surrounded by all
this youth. You know, the next five best players on
the defense are all really young, and and so I

(14:21):
just want to, you know, hit that window where you
have Leonard Williams along with all this great youth. But
it's fun to watch Weatherspoon is an elite, uh competitor,
and now he's matched, you know, with with Eamon Worry
us as those young guys as what we called nickel
overhang defenders in the slot.

Speaker 3 (14:39):
Well, I'm glad you mentioned the D line. I think
they're finally getting the press they deserve. They certainly didn't
get a lot of press back in the lob. I mean,
the secondary sucked up a lot of that. Bobby Wagner
and kJ Wright sucked up a lot of that press.
But they still had really you know, they have really
solid defensive lines with the Frank Clarks and the Bruce's
and the Cliff Averrils, Chris Clemmens, I mean, Michael Bennett.

(15:01):
They had really solid defensive linemen. And Bob Candota today
wrote a pretty expansive peace kind of comparing this defensive
line of Leonard Williams fifth out of one hundred and
twenty nine Interior defensive Lineman by PFF Byron Murphy nineteenth.

Speaker 2 (15:17):
The interior defensive lineman pass rush winwait win rate.

Speaker 3 (15:22):
Boy Mafe is fifth, You Chennis twentieth, Derek Calls twenty
ninth out of one hundred and fourteen guys. I mean,
these guys are all in the top quartile at the
very least in pass rush win wait rate. How do
you view this line versus what you saw in the past,
maybe ten years ago, with those championship lines.

Speaker 5 (15:42):
Oh, this defensive line's the best we've seen. You'd have
to go back to Cortes, Kennedy and I don't have
you know, I'd have to refresh my memory on those.

Speaker 2 (15:52):
It was older Nash.

Speaker 3 (15:53):
It was an older Nash, An, older Bryant, Cortes, Tony Woods, Rufus.

Speaker 4 (15:57):
But really good. You know I was playing at the time.
I don't quite remember all that.

Speaker 5 (16:04):
I'll just say that, you know, you've got the homegrown
best team in five You've got the lesion of Boom
and there's no question this is the best defensive line.
I think even Carol and Mike would would concede that point.
This defensive line, what they can do. And you know
what's interesting to me in this regard, it's just so

(16:25):
much of what Mike McDonald is doing is mirroring what
he did in Baltimore when his last year twenty twenty three,
the Ravens were number one and fewest points allowed by
the defense, number one in turnovers, and number one in sacks.
They were number one in sacks. And here was their
defensive ends. Kyle van Noy, I believe was thirty two

(16:47):
years old on his sixteen, Jadevian Clowney was maybe thirty one.
Both of them were over thirty and on his fifteen.
So they didn't have they didn't have a Miles Garrett right,
they didn't have a Nick Bosa, they didn't have a
rock star defensive end around which they could build their
pass rush. They had just kind of pedestrian dudes as
the defensive ends. And the defensive ends in theory, you know,

(17:10):
if you have a four man rush, the defensive ends
are the guys that are carrying the They have to
carry the water to get to the quarterback right for
the team. And so so what McDonald has been able
to do is he's generating all this chaos and I
think I think his defensive ends are solid above the
median guys. The tackles, I think are better relatively than

(17:34):
the edge guys, but the edge guys have lots of depth,
so uh and and now that they're healthy, I think
that's been an important piece because there was a time
there where when even when they were great, their fourth
quarter numbers were dipping and possibly because of fatigue. But
now you get MafA and Nuoso and everybody back healthy.
So even though they don't have star power at the

(17:55):
defensive end, they they make up for it with depth
and and then of course they make up with the
scheme and all the exotics and all the You know,
Mike McDonald's just trying to get a quarterback to think
for an extra fourth of a second, extra third of
a second, yep, and and get his eyes in the
wrong place for literally a fraction of a second. And

(18:15):
he has a grasp enough about defense to know the
impact that's going to create, and he's been creating it
without the superstars at the end position.

Speaker 3 (18:23):
Well, and you mentioned I remember when when Mike McDonald
took the job. There are two things that stuck out
that I heard from you. One was, this guy is
as great a defensive mind as there is, and he
will turn this defense around right away.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
Well, check he has done that.

Speaker 3 (18:39):
The second thing you mentioned was this, and correct me
if I'm misquoting you. You better win quick because eventually
Mike McDonald's stuff will get figured out and he will
have to adjust. Is that I mean kind of talk
into what I think that you said there.

Speaker 2 (18:57):
It's like that.

Speaker 3 (18:58):
That's almost like Mike McDonald going to be his best
Mike McDonald over the light, over the like the first
three years that he's head coach.

Speaker 5 (19:05):
Yeah, I think that to your first point in watching
what he had done in Baltimore in year one, which
was twenty twenty two, if you go halfway through the season,
he in all those stats he was in the Ravens
were ranked in the twenties. Because it's a complex defense.
So I said in year one, don't expect it to

(19:26):
happen in September or even October. It's going to take
a little while to take hold. But again going back
to what he had done at Baltimore in the second
half of his first season in Baltimore. Sorry, that might
sound confusing. Second half of his first season in Baltimore
twenty twenty two, the Ravens were number one and fewest
points allowed. And then you know, I was also looking

(19:47):
at what he had done at Michigan, where he had
taken the Wolverines from I believe ninety fifth to eighth
in scoring one season. He was only the Michigan defense
coordinator for one year, so I'm like, whoa dude freaking
gets it. And then but then in his second year,
that's where the Ravens hit on that triple crown. As

(20:08):
a word, the you know, number one in three different
categories that if there's some lesson we've learned through the years,
I think Mike McDonald in that regard, you'd say the
first three years, then there's gonna be adjustment. A lot
of teams are gonna be doing what they do. And
I'm resting on history because every single scheme offensively that's
been whether it's the greatest show on turf or whether

(20:31):
it's the nineteen eighty five Bears, the best defense I've
ever seen, whether it's the Wildcat whatever, whoever has been
doing something. The West Coast offense. Every time there's an
emerging scheme on offense or defense that dominates, it always
has a shelf life. The NFL has never failed to

(20:51):
catch up two dominant schemes. So unless Mike McDonald is
a first of it. He's gonna have to evolve himself.

Speaker 3 (21:00):
Final Factor Fiction comes up next. We are in desperate mode.
Jackson feltz, we gotta get a win in this pick.
Lee Sterling will help us with our bets for this weekend.
At three forty five, you'll hear from Jed Fish his
conversation with me and Softie.

Speaker 2 (21:15):
We'll get hughes take on that in the four o'clock hour.

Speaker 3 (21:17):
As we roll on on a Friday afternoon on ninety
three point three KJRFM.

Speaker 1 (21:20):
Now back to Football Friday sponsored by Tito's Handmade Vodka
in your home for the NFL Sports Radio ninety three
point three kjr FM Factor Fiction.

Speaker 3 (21:36):
Four minutes away, Jackson and I are discussing. It's usually
a bad thing when we're discussing, because then it's not
one game that I absolutely have.

Speaker 2 (21:44):
I've got stategy dicks.

Speaker 3 (21:45):
I've got like three or four games that I like
and nothing that I really really love. So we were
trying to discuss strategy there in the break for our final.

Speaker 2 (21:54):
Factor Fiction pick.

Speaker 3 (21:55):
By the way, today is Football Friday sponsored by Tito's
Handmade Vodka.

Speaker 2 (21:59):
That sounds good.

Speaker 3 (22:00):
A proud sponsor of the Seahawks distilled in bottled by
Fifth Generation Austin, Texas, forty percent alcohol by volume, savor responsibly.
I would save her responsibly at seven o'clock if I
wasn't coaching a high school game.

Speaker 2 (22:11):
And I don't think that's a good.

Speaker 3 (22:12):
Look to so I will wait until after the high
school game to enjoy my my Tito's response, Oh, you
a lot of a lot of Seahawks talk. We'll get
our pick coming up in just a few moments. Let's
talk a little and we'll spend a lot of time
talking Sam Donald. But just how much, because we only
have a couple of minutes here, just in general, how

(22:34):
much worry should we have based upon what we've seen
from the last month of Sam Donald.

Speaker 5 (22:42):
Uh, well, I'll just tell you my worry level. I mean,
it's not nothing. I believe in him. I've I've creeped
on his career, meaning I've really looked, even going back
to high school, like, Hey.

Speaker 4 (22:55):
What's this guy's wiring?

Speaker 6 (22:57):
Uh?

Speaker 5 (22:57):
You know this so so posed? You know, clutch factor
or is he is there a choke factor there?

Speaker 4 (23:06):
What have you?

Speaker 5 (23:07):
I mean, it's really not going to be answered until
December eighteenth, we really get a definitive state, definitive statement.
But I think that things are a little bit off
right now. The problem, in my view for quarterbacking is
when you play your best is when you play the
loosest and you don't doubt. You just you see it

(23:29):
because you're trying to anticipate. You're trying to see the
movie before it happens, and so you're trusting your eyes.
You say, okay, based on what I see these where
these defenders are here. Now, I have a pretty good
idea where they're going to be by the time the
ball gets there. Because remember now football, if you throw
it in the high fifty miles an hours, that's really
smoking it. It's not a baseball. So why do I

(23:52):
say that? Because it takes a long time relative to
a baseball for a ball to get to your target.
That means defenders are closing on the ball and what
have you. So you just it's it's literally in a
fraction of second. You go, yep, green light, I like
it go. You know, when I was with the Dolphins,
Dan Marino say lt f F, maybe let the effort
fly and and and I think there's a mentality there

(24:14):
that has helped Sam Darnold number one in UH yards
per attempt in the NFL, steal, number one in terms
of completion per completions over tenure, all the deep. I
mean I could list half a page here on number
one in deep metrics, right and number one in big

(24:36):
in UH big play passes by h as judged by PFF,
and the whole whole works. But if he is second
guessing and overly concerned about turning the ball over, that's
where he'll be paralyzed. That's that's the one of the
real dichotomies of of the position is that you you
read the defense the best when you don't, when you

(24:59):
don't second get and cause yourself to be late, you
just trust it and go. And I think that there
was a little bit more of that element to his
game early in the season.

Speaker 3 (25:08):
Well, I think I came into the season with very
i'm say moderate expectations. I was not going to be
going crazy with my Sam Darnold expectations. I simply said, Hey,
whatever he did last year, let's take that as high end.
Let's take the low end of what his average season
was with Carolina and the Jets and bouncing around and

(25:30):
everything and let's just let's just find a midpoint. Can
can he just be markedly better than he was his
first five six years in the NFL? And can he
be Can he just look closer to the way he
looked in Minnesota? And he has done it? And we
got to go to factor fiction here. We're going to
talk much more about Sam later on, and he has been.

Speaker 4 (25:52):
When there's some cool stuff still some.

Speaker 3 (25:57):
Absolutely absolutely and I just kind of wanted to do
some some cursory stuff. And we will absolutely talk more Sam,
not only today, but we'll certainly on Monday, because we'll
have another game to look at against the defense that
is actually okay in Atlanta. It's Factor Fiction time. Let's
go of course that to go glad you're with us.

Speaker 1 (26:14):
It's your shot at our weekly thousand bucks and the
ten thousand dollars grand prize. It's Factor Fiction probably presented
by Lucky Eagle Casino and Hotel where every day Feels Lucky.
Fact Or Fiction is on Sports Radio ninety three point
three KJR FM.

Speaker 3 (26:38):
When all else fails, Jackson and Hugh, you just stick
to the list. My list has been My list has
been pretty good this year. I've got my games I
rank them in order of how I like them over
the course of the over the course of the week,
and it seems like every time you get to a
pick and then you're like, do I want to do it?
You just stick with the list. And number one of
my lists was Indy, which I took yesterday. Number two

(27:00):
on my list is the under in the BYU Texas
Tech game. I cannot get out of my mind. The
first time these two teams played less than a month ago,
and the BYU offense, and I like their quarterback Bear Bachmeier.
He had no answer whatsoever for the Texas Tech defense

(27:24):
and by it took BYU fifty five minutes to score
a point in that game. And the over under in
this game is fifty, So give me the under fifty.
In BYU Texas Tech in the Big twelve Championship game,
the over under was thirty six the last time they
played two weeks ago. I think these are two teams

(27:46):
whose defense is better than their offense, So give me
the Cougars. They're big underdogs in this game. But instead
of taking the spread, I like the under in this one.

Speaker 2 (27:56):
Jackson, what do you think all we can go is
based on history?

Speaker 6 (27:58):
Right?

Speaker 7 (27:58):
And I think when you're using recent history as reasoned
as that that checked out, it is interesting to me.
Dick On on more of a philosophy note, We came
into this week knowing we were three and a half
back games back of the morning show, and we kind
of talked about if we were going to go opposite
at all, and I don't think not a single pick
we've gone opposite of them.

Speaker 3 (28:19):
There was only one I considered, and that was going
Atlanta against the Seahawks.

Speaker 2 (28:23):
But that number has gone from seven and a half
to six and a half.

Speaker 3 (28:26):
If it was if it stayed at seven and a
half's great, I would have taken the Atlanta Falcons plus
the points, because I think this is a potential letdown
spot for Seattle.

Speaker 7 (28:34):
We are truly relying on our own picks, which better
than their own picks, and it's just dangerous.

Speaker 2 (28:40):
I'm I'm worried. I'm worried for us. We're probably not
gonna win. We were three games. What's that number on
the under again? Fifty? Yeah, that's a bit. That's a
big number number here. What do you think about that?

Speaker 4 (28:51):
I don't don't.

Speaker 2 (28:52):
I don't gamble.

Speaker 5 (28:54):
I gamble about every three years when I get an impulse,
he was like me, insider trading.

Speaker 4 (29:01):
You know, but but you said the over under was
thirty six.

Speaker 3 (29:06):
The last time they played thirty six, thirty six points
were score twenty nine to seven. And it was just
it was because I watched a lot of that game,
because I was like, BYU was undefeated. I was like, Okay,
this is a big time big twelve game. I think
Texas Tech was ranked number three or something like that.
When they played, I was like, this is a big
time game. B Why you could not move the football period?

(29:28):
So I have a tough time. Maybe this game, maybe
they got a pretty good offense.

Speaker 4 (29:34):
But I'm not saying I don't like to pick.

Speaker 5 (29:36):
I'm just all right, well, I'm just listening to your
your rational I think it's I think it's good.

Speaker 2 (29:41):
Our thanks you told me. I don't know, all right?

Speaker 3 (29:44):
How fast over the listeners text four nine four to
five to one fact if you think they will hold
it under fifty points four nine four five one text
fiction if you think it's going to be a shootout
and it'll be over fifty points our thanks to the
Lucky Eagle Casino.

Speaker 2 (29:58):
It's our final pick of the year.

Speaker 3 (29:59):
I'm always when Factor fiction ends, I'm definitely sad because
it doesn't look like we're gonna win this year. What
did we win three in a row at two? Defeatist?
That's a defeatist at its true, that's true. It's I
think we'll do well this week, but I don't think
the morning show is going to go like zher and
five or one four. They had a couple of picks
I really really liked. I liked the Jets pick that
they had. Ah Man, so good week. A lot of

(30:20):
our a lot of our picks got taken by us
by other shows. Three on ninety three point three kJ AIRFM.
Speaking of picks, Lee Sterling will tell us next.

Speaker 2 (30:30):
On ninety three point three KJFM, It's.

Speaker 1 (30:32):
Time for our weekly visit with gambling expert Lee Sterling.
The Paramount Sports brought to you by bail Breaker Brewing,
wherevery hop is grown in the Yakama Valley family owned
bold and proudly Pacific Northwest grabbed their flagship Top Cutter IPA,
a citrusy, fine forward classic at your local grocery store
or visit dep rooms in Seattle and Yakama. Now with

(30:55):
Lee Sterling, here's Suffie and.

Speaker 2 (30:57):
Did I no Safty today? Take extended weekend?

Speaker 3 (31:02):
Hugh is with us and is always at three forty
five during football season on Fridays. Our man from Paramount
Sports who has been on a heater. Two of his
last three weeks, he has gone four and one against
the spread. He is now thirty nine to thirty and
one against the spread on the.

Speaker 2 (31:21):
Air this year. Pair from Paramount Sports, Lee Sterling, Lee,
how are you?

Speaker 6 (31:24):
Man? I'm good? So I guess Dave's the human anchor.
He loses, he takes off for the weekend. Is that
the way it's going to go from now on?

Speaker 3 (31:34):
Well, I hope he still made a few picks on
Factor Fiction for us this week, So I hope he's
not an anchor to the show, that's for sure.

Speaker 6 (31:41):
Okay, all right, we'll root for him there.

Speaker 2 (31:43):
So all right, let's go to Big Ten Championship. Let's
go right to the Big Ten Championship. Man, this number
is starting to creep down a little bit.

Speaker 3 (31:51):
It's now down to Ohio State minus four against Indiana
in the one versus two matchup in Indy.

Speaker 6 (31:58):
Well, the mental aspect of this game I think certainly
favorites Indiana. I think Ohio State was preparing for Michigan
for probably five six weeks. That was their number one
goal once they got to mid season and they lost
four straight times to them. The way they celebrated after
they beat Michigan in the Big House, you would have
thought they won the national title. Indiana, on the other hand,

(32:22):
they were playing for due probably spent all five minutes
preparing for that game. I love Kurt Signetty and his
coaching staff here. Think that their quarterback, Fernando Mendoza about
ten minutes away from my house. I think you might
be able to do a number here in Ohio State.
I know they're number one a lot of major statistical
categories here on defense, but I think Kurt Signetty's going

(32:45):
to find some weaknesses. With two weeks to prepare, they'll
have twenty five thirty plays that'll work here. I'm calling
for the upset here. Indiana is going to win the
Big Ten title here ranking favorite, Who's Your Daddy twenty
seven to twenty four?

Speaker 3 (33:00):
Wow Indiana with the wins straight up? All right, let's
stay with the We go from the Big Ten Championship
to the Big Twelve Championship at Jerry's World in Dallas.
It's a game we just took on the factor fiction,
except we went over under versus the points spread. We'll
get your take on that as well, But let's start
with Texas Tech minus twelve and a half against BYU.

Speaker 6 (33:25):
So when I watched the first game, I'll never forget
looked over at my buddy and I told them at
the end of the game Finals twenty nine to seven
Texas Tech, I'm like this line. They should have won
this game forty to nothing.

Speaker 2 (33:39):
They dominated us.

Speaker 6 (33:40):
But what happens sometimes when you beat a team that bad,
they can make adjustments. It just wasn't BYU's day. Every
pass Day threw seemed like went to a receiver's hand,
from his hands into a Texas Tech defender's hand. They
run back almost for a touchdown lineup and it's just

(34:01):
not your day. Texas Tech's good here, but this game
reminds me of Arizona State Texas from last year. I
think BYU will make the adjustments here. Also keeping their
coach Kalaney Sataki for at least another couple of years,
this team's going to come out here. They've got nothing
to lose. And if you think Texas Tech is going
to have like a three to one advantage as far

(34:21):
as vans, I don't think so BYU really travels well. Also,
Tech survives BYU here thirty to twenty.

Speaker 3 (34:29):
Four, thirty to twenty four. So you got the oh
you're leaning over. Then we just took the under. But
you like the over kind of a no play one
way or the other on the over under.

Speaker 6 (34:38):
Slightly, very slightly, I'll put put two toes in.

Speaker 2 (34:42):
Put two toes in.

Speaker 6 (34:43):
Right.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
Let's go to the NFL Packers.

Speaker 3 (34:45):
Now it's under a touchdown minus six and a half
against a team they have absolutely dominated in the Chicago Bears.

Speaker 6 (34:51):
So you like they have. And I love Ben Johnson.
I was shocked that he took the Chicago job. I
thought he was going to go out of his division
where he was coaching, but he felt Chicago gave him
the best chance to winning. Caleb Williams has not been bad.
I mean, he's been good enough here and I think
the way he's teaching him go to your first lead

(35:15):
not gonna be you know, he's not gonna be a
Tom Brady's not gonna pick out a third and a
fourth receiver get the first read. If he's not there
go to the second read. You can't find him, throw
the ball away. Let's live to fight another day. The
key is win the battle of turnovers. If you're plus
two turnovers in a game or more, you're gonna win

(35:35):
eighty eight percent of the time in the NFL. That's
the way it works out here. So I've got some
real reservations about the Packers offensive line. The receivers two
weeks ago drop seven balls in the game, and I
don't think their cornerbacks or anything special either. Packers one
in six playing more than three points this year, Green

(35:56):
Bay survives here twenty seven to twenty four.

Speaker 3 (35:58):
All right, so far he's three for three to the
underdog in these first three games. Let's see if he
continues Rams eight and a half point favorites in Arizona
against the hapless Cards.

Speaker 2 (36:10):
Will you make it four for four with the Dogs?

Speaker 6 (36:13):
All right? So the Rams offense gives the appearance of
being able to do whatever they want to do, so
much so that Matt Stafford he reverted to being Detroit.
Matt Stafford against the Panthers had a cavalier attitude here.
He was tossing interceptions, being an overconfident guy against the
zone heavy secondary sometimes it can do that. So Cardinals

(36:37):
play as much zone as anyone here, So shouldn't be
surprised if this is going to be a ballgame with
the Rams on alert here and forced to go with
a slightly different approach here. I know trum McVay is
incredible here off of point spread loss sixty one point
two percent in his career, but historical friends versus number

(37:00):
can only take you so far. Rams. They're gonna win,
but they're not going to cover another underdog twenty six, twenty.

Speaker 2 (37:07):
Four, four for four and the Dogs.

Speaker 3 (37:08):
Now, this last one is one that I seriously considered
for factor fiction going to the Falcons plus the points,
but I got scared off because I lost the hook.

Speaker 2 (37:16):
It was seven and a half earlier in the week.

Speaker 3 (37:18):
Now it's six and a half Hawks minus six and
a half in Hotlanta against the Falcons.

Speaker 2 (37:24):
Who do you like?

Speaker 6 (37:26):
Probably the toughest game to play. I think it depends
on Drake London if he plays here. I think it's
an Atlanta call.

Speaker 2 (37:31):
I know All is not playing the numbers Auteattle. It's
just a nice season, all right.

Speaker 6 (37:36):
Okay, So then I think you maybe look to Seattle here.
Their defense is number three and EPA p play number
four and success rate number one in EPA rush per attempted,
number three in rushing success rate allowed. If Atlanta can't run,
they're going to be all over Kirk Cousins. I know
they won last year thirty four to fourteen Kirk Cousins.

(38:02):
He threw two interceptions, he was sacked three times. Final
score was boost a little bit by that thirty six
yard fumble return for a touchdown of the fourth quarter.
But as long as it's seven we might even be
able to buy it down to six and a half
if you're betting it here. But even at seven, I
like Seattle here thirty to twenty.

Speaker 2 (38:21):
All right.

Speaker 3 (38:21):
The one favorite that Lee takes this week is the Seahawks.
He's got the Seahawks, he's got the Cards plus the points.
He's got the Bears plus the points. He's got Indiana
straight up dub against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.
And he's got BYU plus the points and your game
of the week Eagles minus two and a half at

(38:41):
so far, taking on the Chargers, where there will probably
be more Eagle fans then there will be Charger fans
in that stadium.

Speaker 2 (38:48):
How do we get this pick?

Speaker 6 (38:50):
Anyone wants to get it for free? Just call eight hundred,
four hundred nine seven four to one. The games on
me were rolling thirty seven, seventeen and one in the NFL.
Well had nine out of eleven winning weeks college football
in the NFL. We went on Thursday, Turkey Day, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
passed on Monday, and one last night with the Lions.

(39:11):
You want to hop on board double down December. Every
game from tonight and we have three of the four games.
First one starts in five minutes. Just one place. Paramount
sports dot.

Speaker 2 (39:21):
Com love it. Have a great weekend, man, good luck.
We'll talk to you next week.

Speaker 6 (39:25):
Okay, okay, thanks guys.

Speaker 3 (39:26):
You Betley Sterlink, Paramount Sports and Paramount sports dot Com.
He has been very, very good for us this year.
Thirty nine thirty and one on the air against the spread.
Let's hear from head coach Jedfish in the next segment.
Jackson has pared down our extensive interview twenty four minutes Saturday.

Speaker 2 (39:46):
It was our twenty four minute interview that we did
with Jedial he is.

Speaker 3 (39:49):
He has pared it down to the meat and Potatoes,
a lot about his future, about the success rate that
he thought this season had looking ahead in the next year,
and we'll get Hugh and my thoughts on that as
well coming up in the next segment of ninety three
point three KJRFM.

Dave 'Softy' Mahler and Dick Fain News

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