May 19, 2025 • 30 mins
In the second hour, Gregg Bell and Jackson Felts talk to Hugh Millen about the sanctity of the NBA Draft Lottery, a possible NFL lottery, and the future of the tush push, then visit with Luke Arkins and discuss the Mariners offense and the starting pitching health.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
How are you, sir. I'm doing great. Good to be
with you.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Good to be with you again.
Speaker 3 (00:04):
Hello.
Speaker 4 (00:04):
Yeah, I'm told I'm supposed to poke the bear about
the NBA Draft lottery. First of all, I mean we
just had we just played a clip of Shaquille O'Neil
saying that. David Stern said, do you want to be
in a cold city or warm city in your NBA career?
He said warm, And then two weeks later he was
at the Orlando Magic number one pick in the lottery
(00:26):
because the Magic won the ping pong balls. Now, of course,
Dallas Mavericks make the most unpopular misguided trade maybe in
the history of the NBA. Luca's out of Dallas fans
want to burn down the arena and all of a
sudden they're going to get the number one pick in
Cooper Flag because they had a what point zero whatever
it was, chance of getting the number one pick two chance,
(00:47):
and they get the number one pick and the lottery
over some far more creddy teams. I'm going to ask
you first your thoughts on the NBA lottery and whether
you think it is maybe, if not rigged, slightly weighted
towards certain results. Sure, and then to the NFL and
maybe they possibly needing a lottery.
Speaker 5 (01:07):
Yeah, yeah, we kind of discussed this on Friday, So
that's maybe that's where the bear poking comes from. But
first of all, Shack's comment, as as it's been related
to me, does that constitute evidence to anybody?
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Like like like.
Speaker 5 (01:23):
It does fit in narrative if you're entrenched in the
idea that the lottery is fixed, then that would be
consistent with that that theory or hypothesis. But it's also
would be very consistent with casual small talk. People talk
about the weather with strangers, probably amongst the highest topics.
(01:45):
So I think that, hey, hey, where do you want
to go? That that doesn't constitute any evidence to me,
And I would just ask you, if you're inclined to believe,
what make your claim and then give evidence for it.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Well, I thought it was way back in the night
the early nineties when the Knicks were just awful. They
couldn't even get half a Madison Square garden field. I
was going to school in New York and then they
get Patrick Ewing in the lottery, and all of a sudden,
the Knicks.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Are in the mid eighties.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
But yeah, yeah, you're right, late eighties, and all of
a sudden, the next eighty five yep, go into the
NBA finals and their conference finals every year. That was
the first time I started to wait a minute, how
the next one? And I don't think they were. They
were better than two percent chance to win the lottery
that year, but I'm going and dating myself way back
to the eighties for that, and then I've just kind
(02:31):
of forgotten about the NBA since that, especially since two
thousand and eight. So that's why I've kind of been
stuck on the NBA lottery. But obviously you don't think
it is, and most people don't, and probably likely it's
not fixed.
Speaker 5 (02:41):
But yeah, well I would just say this to me
because I didn't want to. I didn't want to knock
down a straw man argument. I think to fortify the argument,
it sounds something like this. Tell me if you agree
that over the course of forty one lotteries, there are
four five of those lotteries where one would say, if
(03:04):
if the motivation is either what's best for the league
or to quote, do a solid for some owner to
help some team, that the the league would endeavor to
rig the lottery for those motives?
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Is that right?
Speaker 5 (03:20):
And then as evidence we for that, we we can
point to four or five different years where we say, boy,
that looks awful suspicious. That would certainly that that particular
year certainly is consistent with the hypothesis that the NBA
is willing and able to execute a rig loggery a lottery.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Do I do I have it?
Speaker 6 (03:45):
Is that?
Speaker 7 (03:46):
Is that?
Speaker 5 (03:46):
Is that a fair representation of the argument?
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Yeah? I think so?
Speaker 5 (03:49):
Okay, So let's weigh that against some other factors. And
and even if we just said, forget like in a
criminal case, the burden of proof is beyond a reasonable doubt.
Let's just take a civil burden of proof, which is
proponents of the evidence, uh, you know, fifty percent plus
a feather. Is it more likely that the that the
(04:12):
NBA lottery is rigged or is it more likely not?
And let's just consider some facts. Let's just consider the
risk involved. You're talking about federal violations. This is felony fraud.
And so Adam Silver, who I can't think of a
lot better jobs in the world than being a sports commissioner.
(04:37):
Adam Silver has a pretty cool job. Is he willing
to risk of federal charges and being in prison?
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Okay?
Speaker 5 (04:47):
Are the and and you're talking about a twelve billion
dollar per year into per year industry that would literally
crumble on its foundation if it was supposed to be fraudulent?
Are are are the participants? Are the owners involved in this?
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Like?
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Who knows?
Speaker 5 (05:07):
Here's another okay, So how about the execution? Who knows
if Adam Silver wants to do a favor for the Mavericks?
Who else knows? Does Is it the guy who's fixing
the ping pong balls? Is he the only other one
and knows? How is Adam Silver communicating with him? Is
that by text? By email, by a phone conversation that
(05:28):
could be could be recorded? You're opening yourself up for
extortion in in in such a theory, I mean, are
there do the do some of the do all of
the owners know? Does the one who's getting the favor?
If you like, like I guess you know Cuban doesn't
own the Mavericks anymore? But whoever owns the does he know?
(05:50):
And then if he knows, did the prior guys who
are beneficiary know? And do they talk them see each other?
And what if you own the jazz? Are you sitting
there saying wait, a minute, It's my turn. I want
Hooper flag. We had a far worse record than the Mavericks.
You tell me he's just gonna be okay with this.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
Yeah, the NBA tell him you're in Salt Lake City, nobody, and.
Speaker 5 (06:09):
Then he's supposed to just shut up. I mean, are
are so the people that know We've never had any whistleblowers,
never any deathbed confessions like the running the risk for this?
Do we do we even understand the difficulty in how
this is executed when when they pull the ping pong balls. Uh, look,
I understand the Patrick ewing. You know the frozen envelope
(06:33):
eight that was that was year one. So so you say, well,
maybe this thing is corrupt, and and maybe maybe David
Stern frozen himself or only had one assistant frozen. You
know that they're you could tilt your your head and
and and and maybe try and concoct but you still
have the issue of the risk. But now moving on
forty one years later that we have we have ping
(06:55):
pong balls just like they have in the state lotteries.
We got twenty media members that are watching the ping
ball pung balls being fooled, like, like, how do we
execute this, this fix we how do we change the
ping pong balls? Do we lie about what got pulled up?
And again who knows who's in on the conspiracy? I
just and then further and the final point is is
(07:18):
look at all the years where if you're of the
mind level, well, hey, I can point to four or
five years.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
Why did why did.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Why?
Speaker 5 (07:27):
You say, Patrick Ewing and Luka Doncic, All right, that
book nds the first one and the most recent one.
But tell me why would Lebron James go to Cleveland? Well,
he's from Cleveland. Well, show me one other player that
has benefited you know, it goes to geographically desirable.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
What about?
Speaker 5 (07:46):
Why would Wemby probably the second the second best prospect
in the lottery era, next to Lebron? Why on earth
would Wenby go to San Antonio, the twenty fourth biggest
market out of twenty eight, to a team that's already
won five championships? What benefit? How does that benefit the league?
(08:08):
Why would Cleveland get back.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
To back.
Speaker 5 (08:13):
First picks? Would or why would Shack go to Orlando?
And then the very next year Orlando gets Chris Weber?
They get number one back to back Like all of
these if you're of the mind like I can I
can point to four or five picks that seem to
be consistent with the lottery fix hypothesis. Well, I can,
(08:36):
that's only ten percent. I can show you another thirty
five that it makes no sense. So I think, I
think I'll just summarize this. If if, if the theory,
if the lottery fixed theory or hypothesis is based only
on the evidence that we can point to a handful
of picks that kind of seem convenient, and we to
(09:00):
we do not address any of those questions that I
just raised, then I find that hypothesis, that theory to
be completely impotent.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
Jackson felt, I think I speak on behalf of all
the listening audience and saying thanks a lot.
Speaker 8 (09:15):
That was.
Speaker 7 (09:16):
That was if we're talking about like debate class, if
we're talking about like you know, get up and make
a case like I think you just threw the kitchen
sink out of you.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
I'm not well, I'm just getting started. There's a lot
more in terms.
Speaker 5 (09:27):
Of the odds.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Okay, it's all good. I invite a retort.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
I don't want to do it. I honestly, this is
the truth.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
This is my honest truth. I don't care about the
NBA enough to retort. I really don't, Okay, but you've
seem to imply you were fearist, So I'm I'm I'm
eager to engage said Federal Courthouse downtown and heard the
arguments that ended up getting David Stern in the NBA
out of seat.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
I'm done with you.
Speaker 7 (09:58):
I think I'm more interested to know if the NF
fellow should have one, because it's.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Exactly avoid tanking. That's and it's you. We've talked about this.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
It's so hard in the NFL to tank because you've
got players who are trying to put they're trying to
get a contract for next year. They don't have to
guaranteed deal, most of them beyond the current year. To me,
tanking doesn't happen in the NFL because of that reason alone,
the lack of guarantee contracts. But do you think it
needs a lottery the NFL? Uh?
Speaker 1 (10:21):
I don't think it needs a lottery?
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Would it?
Speaker 5 (10:23):
Would the NFL be better?
Speaker 2 (10:26):
Well?
Speaker 5 (10:27):
I do think that there's you know, you know, like
there's already discussion about you know, you've got arts manning
and you know is Cleveland or the Saints or somebody,
you know the Saints, you know, Arts Manning is from
New Orleans. Uh, are they going to make decisions that
seem to suggest that they're tanking? That's possible. I would
I would be okay. I'm put it this way. It's
(10:47):
not a forefront of mind for me on issues Like
forefront to me is like have full time officials, uh,
you know, take away the push push you know, uh
uh you know, go back to to uh outlawing that
that ridiculous play like. So I've got other things that
are more important. But I'd be okay with the lottery.
But I think that's there's a few things they should do.
(11:09):
I think the ping pong ball. The States have been
doing lotteries a lot more than sports leagues, and the States,
the States and the Omega, they all do ping pong balls.
So what I would just do is is have it
on live TV. It used to be with the NBA.
So I think that, you know, just sitting there with
the you know you you wait, the ping pong balls.
I think they've got that right, and then whatever ping
(11:30):
pong ball pulls up in some order, what what have you?
I think only the most, I don't know, just jaded
of fans would think that there is a fixing on this.
I mean, just to point to one, one flimsy piece
of evidence and ignore dozens of other very sub sanitials.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
I'm back, I'm back, I'm back.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
Sorry, I just you know what happened exactly.
Speaker 5 (12:03):
You know what happened is I started thinking, are we
gonna have this nonsense, this these nonsense accusations.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Wh the NFL.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
I'm gonna say what I said seventeen years ago. Let
me get back to something you just run in the military.
I'm trying to I'm trying to run point on the
any seriously you are and you're doing a hell of
a job.
Speaker 5 (12:25):
Well, let me get back idiously about the NFL perspective,
NFL lottery.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
I agree, I agree with that, But something you just
said I got to get back to. Why ban the
toush push? Why not get good at defending it? Or
why not every offensive coordinator do the same thing.
Speaker 4 (12:41):
And if you are tired of the touch push and
don't like it, stop it, figure out what to do
about that.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Okay, can you mat them another play that?
Speaker 2 (12:49):
I mean, just because someone's good at it.
Speaker 5 (12:51):
Let's contextualize this for a second. So from nineteen twenty
to and now I don't have the rule, but in
front of me, I had it on a prior segment.
That okay, So the assisting the runner was impermissible for
eighty four years. So the tuss push the original idea
(13:15):
of football is no, we like think of this. Let's
let's have a component of assists that we would all
disagree you shouldn't do if you took let's say you
had a little tiny half back at one hundred and
ten pounds, put give him the ball and then have
two big, strong guys just you know, heave him over
(13:36):
the line like you do with a kid in a
swimming pool, just toss him over line into the end zone. Well,
we say, that's kind of nonsense, that's not football. Well
that was that's been impermissible starting in nineteen twenty and
all the way up to today. Well, pushing from behind
was deemed to be impermissible as well. It's it's an
assist that is not common to the game, or should
(13:59):
not be should not be common to the game, And
it was impermissible for eighty four years. And so you say, well,
why did it change? What happened is is you go back,
because I've studied this. What happened is is there was
like one or two times per year where they, you know,
a blockdown field where it was kind of hard. They
was deemed to be hard to officiate, like at ten
(14:21):
yards is he really pushing from the behind or is
he blocking the defender?
Speaker 1 (14:27):
And so they just said, well, let's just.
Speaker 5 (14:29):
Pull it out altogether, the part about pushing, and that
happened in two thousand and four, and nobody even blake nothing.
There was no consequence, not in twenty fourteen, not ten
years later. It wasn't until about fifteen years fifteen, sixteen
years later where the Eagles they started to say, well,
wait a minute, let's use this to advantage. This was
(14:50):
never the intention in two thousand and four. It was
just to clean up, make it easier to effiiciate. It
was not the attention in twenty twenty, excuse me, nineteen
twenty when the rules were made.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
It was not the intention.
Speaker 5 (15:04):
In nineteen sixty seven, the first Super Bowl, It was
not the intention during the eighties when the forty nine ers, like,
it's never been the intention up until it's just evolved
in the manner the sequence I described to this ridiculous
play that's not football, it's rugby. So let's just go
(15:26):
back to how we had viewed the play for eighty
four years.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
And I agree with you there.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
If you're going to make it illegal, then make all
eighting of all runners illegal. And you're right, that's what
I grew up officiating. It would still only be a
five year penalty by the way it was really, but.
Speaker 6 (15:42):
Yeah, it's very between five and ten throughout the years. Yes,
I agree that, then eliminate all of it. But to
just target one specific play, I think you got to
rewrite the whole world book to say no aiding of
the runner whatsoever. And then that I agree with you,
and then that I can see him doing. Know if
it's going to happen next week when they vote at
the spring meetings in Minneapolis.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
But that would be the equitable fix, would it not.
Let's just go back to what it was for eighty
four Just.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
Go back to what it was.
Speaker 5 (16:09):
Yeah, just just go back to a two thousand rule
book that's exactly you know, or right, or as recently
as two thousand, two thousand and three. Just go back
to the two thousand and three rule book that's back
in the You know, this isn't eighteen times, These aren't
level leather helmets. This is Shawn Alexander, you know, like
nobody could push Alexander from behind Nord Matt hasselback like
(16:30):
where this isn't like some cock and many uh you know,
untried uh vision of football. This is just what we
You know, you don't even have to be my age
or I know, Greg you're younger me, but more or
less our age. You don't have to be our age
to remember Jackson. You can you can remember well an
era when it was impermissible.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Wh yeah, man.
Speaker 5 (16:54):
And the curious thing is it was so significant, insignificant
that that that essentially I call I use the term dormant.
The rule laid dormant for fifteen years, like the I
should say, the rule change laid dormant. And the whole
idea behind removing that portion of the rule book it
(17:14):
was never to incentivize the tuss push.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
It was just to make it easier to officially officiate.
Speaker 5 (17:21):
When you do kind of do get those scrums ten
fifteen yards down the field, you say, well, hey that
you know Steve Hutchinson came in to block somebody, but
he kind of hit us the soulder of Seawan. Alexander
did that soulder? You know, was that purposeful or was
that inadvertent? And and yet Alexander he did benefit from
Hutchinson pushing. And then they said, well, that's kind of
(17:43):
hard to officiate.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Well let's just pull it out of the rule book.
That's that's how it that's how it happened.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
Thank you, sir for the context, because I think that
is important and your's very important.
Speaker 5 (17:52):
He just fix it back to where it was then
to fix because it wasn't it. Look, you know, it's
hard to officiate pass interference bang bang. That happens all
the time, and it happens in significant place. We had
We had generations, decades upon decades, scores of years were
we're eating a runner.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Was not a difficult you know, in any meaningful sense whatsoever.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
It was not difficult.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
Next time I talk to you, I get to ask
you about Jalen Miller. And while you're shaking your head
when I said the CX are going to draft him,
that's hours before they did. But I didn't get a.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
Chance to do that.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
Don't time time, no time, Thank you? Was I shaking
my head because they shouldn't, or thought I don't think
they will, gentlemen as they should not. That's what I
thought it was. But we'll get to that next time. Okay,
Rock and Roll, thanks you man.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
Appreciate me. Hugh Milling as only he can. I tried
to get him off the NBA, what can I do?
And they brought him back to But he makes a
really good point about the original context of the NFL
and what made the Toush push legal. The NFL owners
are a meeting next week in Minneapolis and it supposedly
will vote on this. It was tabled in the last
the owners meetings in March, but they could vote on
(19:02):
it next week, so we may have a was tush
Bush legal illegal? And as we just said, the easy
way is just go back to the way it was
for eighty four years up to two thousand and four.
Gears up to the first place Mariners. They're in Chicago.
They just coming off a sweep of San Diego. They're
up by two and a half games in the American
League West. Luke Arkins Mariners, consigli Air newsletter, frequent guests
of mine on the show. I used to have in
(19:23):
the station. He's gonna join us next and at five
o'clock we're gonna talk more about the Seahawks. We're gonna
get off the text line. May maybe answer the phones
live on the air. Your chance to be live on
the air two of six, two eight, six, ninety five,
ninety five. Or if you don't want to be on
the air, go to the text line or the iHeartRadio
talkback app, press the red button and leave your question
for the Seahawks will answer that. At five o'clock five
(19:43):
thirty four, arm Wall you a great friend of mine.
Tsn talk about the Pucks, the Stanley Cup, plass being
in the final four, all that more Sounders. At six o'clock,
Jackson Feltz and I are on ninety three point three KJRFM.
Speaker 8 (19:55):
Podcasting live from the R and R Foundation Specialist broadcast studio.
Now back to Saftie and Dick powered by Emerald Queen Casino,
the Betty and Capital of the Northwest on Sports Radio
ninety three point three kJ r FM.
Speaker 4 (20:15):
Welcome back, Greg Bell, The news should be in with
Jackson Felts with you instead of Dave Southmaller and Dick Fame.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Dick is about to cover The Storm.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
He played by play on the CW television for The Storm,
playing at Pagebreckers in Dallas, Page Beckers Second n W
NBA Game five Am Dave Softie Mahler's in Greece.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
Jackson tells me gallivanting traveling. As long has he been there?
Speaker 1 (20:38):
I just got there. I want to say today long.
Speaker 7 (20:41):
Well he looked thirty one hours of flights apparently, what so, Yeah,
he's been watching Star Wars. He texts me, every you
can get to Europe in about ten I think I
think he said thirty one hours of traveling. Sorry, but
it's still he's been watching Star Wars content I think
for about twenty five out of thirty one hours.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
So he needs a new travel a thirty hours to Europe.
Speaker 4 (21:02):
Man Luke Argan my favorite Navy guy. Luke Argan's had
him on the show quite a bit. Mariners Can Stickular,
our newsletter author had him on my show quite a
bit when I had it for the last year or so.
In the morning, he joins us the Beacon Plumbing Hotline
to talk about the first place Mariners and Luke. It
feels like Groundhog Day to me, Hello, servant, we're talking
in May about the first place Mariners again.
Speaker 3 (21:22):
Yeah, just like last year, we're in first place on
the end of April and the May and the June
and all the way to the All Star break and
then things kind of fell apart.
Speaker 8 (21:31):
It.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Need we remember that. Good to talk to you again, Luke.
Speaker 4 (21:35):
Okay, So I to you Jackson, and I at the
start said I posited this and tell me if you agree, Luke,
and you got the numbers behind it. Luke Arkins, big
analytical guy, gets all the numbers. Breakdown, Luke, is this
more this two and a half game lead right now
over the trash Cans in mid May? Is that more
sustainable than the ten game lead the Mariners had in June.
(21:57):
That sounds counterintuitive, but we all know the Mariners were
doing it with a complete smoke and mirror show on offense.
Last year into June. The pitching was lights out and
they were only winning because they were winning two zero
and two to one and one nothing. The way, the
offense is top ten and almost every major category statistically.
Would you say, perhaps this lead is more sustainable in
(22:18):
this team is more sustainable success because of how the
offense is playing.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Or are you still Jerry's still out on this.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
Jerry's still out on it. For me, the offense is
definitely better, there's no doubt about that. Whether all the
guys that are producing can continue to produce at the
level they are is really the question mark with this offense.
I mean, Jorge Polanco was rivaling Aaron Judges just a
couple of weeks ago, and now he has really cooled
(22:48):
off a lot in May, and then I think it's
fair to say that Dylan Warren is probably going to
cool off a little bit. And we do know that
Julio will heat up. I think that's already started, and
that's a good thing. But when you look at their offense,
there are a lot of guys overperforming their recent averages,
(23:09):
their their career averages, and so you have to wonder,
is that, like a guy like cal Rawley, is he
just taking the next step or is it or JP
Crawford sort of returning to where he was two years ago?
Ranio rose Arena is slightly more productive than he has been.
Maybe that's sustainable, But then like Dylan Moore and Hargate,
(23:30):
Polanco and even Rowdy Ples, like those guys are overperforming
where they've been recently.
Speaker 8 (23:36):
Is that.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
Sustainable. I have doubts about that.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
Luke Argan's Mariners considering our newsletter joining us on the
Beacon plumbing hotline, and Luke, let me break it down
well even the sustainability piece on offense, let me break
it down even more. The Mariners are top ten in
the major leagues and run scored slugging percentage ops RBIs
and on base percentage there's sixth and home runs second
in the American League only the Yankees and their van
box part they're fifth, and walks eighth in stolen bases,
(24:04):
which blows my mind. What of all those numbers and
maybe even more advanced metrics you have, what is offensively sustainable?
Speaker 2 (24:11):
In particular, do you think with the lineup they have
and what is not and who's going to vanish?
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Well? I think the strikeout part is I don't think
you mentioned strikeout person, but that is that is huge.
You know, I'm actually trying to write a piece this
week about that and how much is that sustainable? And again,
you know, Polanco is having a career year in strikeouts,
He's having his best strikeout the lowest strikeout right ever,
it's I think it's about eighteen percent lower than past year,
(24:42):
so that is a big change. But when you look
across there are guys like Cal Rawley and Jose excuse me,
Julio Rodriguez, and Luke Raley although he's hurt right now,
even Dylan Mover I just mentioned, all of them are
striking out less often than they had in the past,
and that's a good thing. I think that's a good
part for their sustaining their offense. But I know you
(25:06):
don't like to talk about that. You don't like to
talk about the ballpark, but the ballpark does matter for
this team, and they're scoring a run more per game
on the road, and there their overall numbers on the
road are are are much better than at home, but
fifty points better and average ZBP and slug. So you
(25:26):
know that's that's well, that's just the way it is
with this team. That's always going to be the way
it is.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
They've played forty five games going into the three game
series it's going to begin in Chicago, they have four
hundred and four strikeouts.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
To your point, Luke Parkins.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
You and I talked a lot last year when they
were ten to eleven strikeouts a game, so right that
alone is as you said, the fact that they are
having productive outs, ball and playouts rather than ball and
catchers met outs that can change innings and games, can
and not can that alone, lower strikeout fewer strikeouts alone
make this team a better off defense, just single handedly,
(26:01):
because they're at least putting the ball in play and
moving runners.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
I think so their record is much better when they
strike out less than nine times. I had it written
down here. I think they're let's see, they're seventeen and
eleven when they strike out less nine or less times.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
Not even exactly a low bar either.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
No, it's not. That's only about the middle of the league.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
You think last year they were terrible. They struck out
ten or more times more than any team in the league,
and therefore they struck out nine or fewer less than
every team in the league. But yeah, their record is
significally better when they striked out nine or fewer times
in the game. That doesn't mean you can't win games,
and you can still lose them, but you're more competitive.
(26:46):
There's better opportunities, obviously.
Speaker 4 (26:50):
Logan Evans, what are you saying from Logan Evans to
us out of nowhere? Perhaps you had your eye on
him but what are the metrics, what are analytics? What
are they saying about this guy should stay around.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
When they're I don't know if he's going to stick
around once uh once to get the get Logan Gilbert
back and George Kirby and Pryce Miller. I don't He'll
be gone there pretty quickly. He's he had a good
game the other day, but overall his metrics are not great.
I mean, just basic stuff is the opponents are hitting
(27:21):
two eighty six against them, so that's slugging four o five.
So that's that would be that would be good for
a hitter that would would be really happy. We had
a man who's hit two eighty six and slugging four
o five, So that's not good when the pitcher's running
into that. But then again, look at it this way.
You've lost three starters, top line starters out of your rotation.
You still have a guy that can come up and
(27:43):
be subviceable for a month or so. That's exactly what
you want from him. And Emerson Hancock to a lesser degree.
I mean, I Emerson is a better, I think a
better pitcher, but it's the same point that that you
got these guys that you can call upon to fill
the holes and you get the other guys back. And
it does look like people'll get all three guys back.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
What about Ben Williamson, I mean, out of nowhere a
third baseman, he's only hitting two twenty eight, But I
like what I see every time he plays.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
They do them.
Speaker 4 (28:11):
They're doing the platoon thing Master Bony started yesterday. Are
you thinking maybe Williamson somebody should just be the third
basemen or you like the platoon there.
Speaker 3 (28:22):
I'd rather have somebody at third base. I think Williamson
is an excellent defender, and you know, to be fair,
he's only played in twenty seven games and he seems
to be struggling quite a bit. At some point, do
you consider sending him back down to let him work
on his craft? On his craft? Master Boney is very
good defensively and play around the field a little bit,
(28:44):
which is very helpful. But he's not providing anything with
his bat either, So those two together are not giving
you much at the plate, although they're giving you excellent
defense in the field. So I guess it's a trade
off of everybody else is hitting. You can live in
a position that's maybe below average hitting, but it's above
average a defense.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
Luke, it's great to talk to you again.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
I'm sorry, I'm short on time. We gotta let you go,
but go Army beat Navy. Thanks a lot.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
We'll talk to soon, all right. Man, think Luke Carket's
former Navy man, got always tagging for that. But he
he's bigg into the numbers and he spared to some
of his deep, deep dives. But he can go deep
on the Mariners' strikeout totals, and I knew he was
going to bring that up right away as a big,
big factor to compare this offense to twenty twenty four
(29:29):
and twenty three. Next, your chance to be a part
of the show of the textimonials. You're gonna get another
chance to be part of the show at five o'clock.
I'm opening the phone lines at two oh six to eight,
six ninety five ninety five. You're gonna ask Seahawks questions
of me as we do a Seahawks segment from five
until five thirty. But up next your chance to be
a part of the show and the textimonials five thirty
four hundred logs. He's going to talk Stanley Cup playoffs
(29:49):
from TSN and Canada. I'm a great friend of mine
from north of the border. All that clopping up including
Jack and Felt and I opining on the Sounders coming
off with Derby and Portland. That's next on ninety three
points three kJ RFM.
How are you, sir. I'm doing great. Good to be
with you.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Good to be with you again.
Speaker 3 (00:04):
Hello.
Speaker 4 (00:04):
Yeah, I'm told I'm supposed to poke the bear about
the NBA Draft lottery. First of all, I mean we
just had we just played a clip of Shaquille O'Neil
saying that. David Stern said, do you want to be
in a cold city or warm city in your NBA career?
He said warm, And then two weeks later he was
at the Orlando Magic number one pick in the lottery
(00:26):
because the Magic won the ping pong balls. Now, of course,
Dallas Mavericks make the most unpopular misguided trade maybe in
the history of the NBA. Luca's out of Dallas fans
want to burn down the arena and all of a
sudden they're going to get the number one pick in
Cooper Flag because they had a what point zero whatever
it was, chance of getting the number one pick two chance,
(00:47):
and they get the number one pick and the lottery
over some far more creddy teams. I'm going to ask
you first your thoughts on the NBA lottery and whether
you think it is maybe, if not rigged, slightly weighted
towards certain results. Sure, and then to the NFL and
maybe they possibly needing a lottery.
Speaker 5 (01:07):
Yeah, yeah, we kind of discussed this on Friday, So
that's maybe that's where the bear poking comes from. But
first of all, Shack's comment, as as it's been related
to me, does that constitute evidence to anybody?
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Like like like.
Speaker 5 (01:23):
It does fit in narrative if you're entrenched in the
idea that the lottery is fixed, then that would be
consistent with that that theory or hypothesis. But it's also
would be very consistent with casual small talk. People talk
about the weather with strangers, probably amongst the highest topics.
(01:45):
So I think that, hey, hey, where do you want
to go? That that doesn't constitute any evidence to me,
And I would just ask you, if you're inclined to believe,
what make your claim and then give evidence for it.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Well, I thought it was way back in the night
the early nineties when the Knicks were just awful. They
couldn't even get half a Madison Square garden field. I
was going to school in New York and then they
get Patrick Ewing in the lottery, and all of a sudden,
the Knicks.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Are in the mid eighties.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
But yeah, yeah, you're right, late eighties, and all of
a sudden, the next eighty five yep, go into the
NBA finals and their conference finals every year. That was
the first time I started to wait a minute, how
the next one? And I don't think they were. They
were better than two percent chance to win the lottery
that year, but I'm going and dating myself way back
to the eighties for that, and then I've just kind
(02:31):
of forgotten about the NBA since that, especially since two
thousand and eight. So that's why I've kind of been
stuck on the NBA lottery. But obviously you don't think
it is, and most people don't, and probably likely it's
not fixed.
Speaker 5 (02:41):
But yeah, well I would just say this to me
because I didn't want to. I didn't want to knock
down a straw man argument. I think to fortify the argument,
it sounds something like this. Tell me if you agree
that over the course of forty one lotteries, there are
four five of those lotteries where one would say, if
(03:04):
if the motivation is either what's best for the league
or to quote, do a solid for some owner to
help some team, that the the league would endeavor to
rig the lottery for those motives?
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Is that right?
Speaker 5 (03:20):
And then as evidence we for that, we we can
point to four or five different years where we say, boy,
that looks awful suspicious. That would certainly that that particular
year certainly is consistent with the hypothesis that the NBA
is willing and able to execute a rig loggery a lottery.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
Do I do I have it?
Speaker 6 (03:45):
Is that?
Speaker 7 (03:46):
Is that?
Speaker 5 (03:46):
Is that a fair representation of the argument?
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Yeah? I think so?
Speaker 5 (03:49):
Okay, So let's weigh that against some other factors. And
and even if we just said, forget like in a
criminal case, the burden of proof is beyond a reasonable doubt.
Let's just take a civil burden of proof, which is
proponents of the evidence, uh, you know, fifty percent plus
a feather. Is it more likely that the that the
(04:12):
NBA lottery is rigged or is it more likely not?
And let's just consider some facts. Let's just consider the
risk involved. You're talking about federal violations. This is felony fraud.
And so Adam Silver, who I can't think of a
lot better jobs in the world than being a sports commissioner.
(04:37):
Adam Silver has a pretty cool job. Is he willing
to risk of federal charges and being in prison?
Speaker 1 (04:46):
Okay?
Speaker 5 (04:47):
Are the and and you're talking about a twelve billion
dollar per year into per year industry that would literally
crumble on its foundation if it was supposed to be fraudulent?
Are are are the participants? Are the owners involved in this?
Speaker 3 (05:06):
Like?
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Who knows?
Speaker 5 (05:07):
Here's another okay, So how about the execution? Who knows
if Adam Silver wants to do a favor for the Mavericks?
Who else knows? Does Is it the guy who's fixing
the ping pong balls? Is he the only other one
and knows? How is Adam Silver communicating with him? Is
that by text? By email, by a phone conversation that
(05:28):
could be could be recorded? You're opening yourself up for
extortion in in in such a theory, I mean, are
there do the do some of the do all of
the owners know? Does the one who's getting the favor?
If you like, like I guess you know Cuban doesn't
own the Mavericks anymore? But whoever owns the does he know?
(05:50):
And then if he knows, did the prior guys who
are beneficiary know? And do they talk them see each other?
And what if you own the jazz? Are you sitting
there saying wait, a minute, It's my turn. I want
Hooper flag. We had a far worse record than the Mavericks.
You tell me he's just gonna be okay with this.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
Yeah, the NBA tell him you're in Salt Lake City, nobody, and.
Speaker 5 (06:09):
Then he's supposed to just shut up. I mean, are
are so the people that know We've never had any whistleblowers,
never any deathbed confessions like the running the risk for this?
Do we do we even understand the difficulty in how
this is executed when when they pull the ping pong balls. Uh, look,
I understand the Patrick ewing. You know the frozen envelope
(06:33):
eight that was that was year one. So so you say, well,
maybe this thing is corrupt, and and maybe maybe David
Stern frozen himself or only had one assistant frozen. You
know that they're you could tilt your your head and
and and and maybe try and concoct but you still
have the issue of the risk. But now moving on
forty one years later that we have we have ping
(06:55):
pong balls just like they have in the state lotteries.
We got twenty media members that are watching the ping
ball pung balls being fooled, like, like, how do we
execute this, this fix we how do we change the
ping pong balls? Do we lie about what got pulled up?
And again who knows who's in on the conspiracy? I
just and then further and the final point is is
(07:18):
look at all the years where if you're of the
mind level, well, hey, I can point to four or
five years.
Speaker 2 (07:24):
Why did why did.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Why?
Speaker 5 (07:27):
You say, Patrick Ewing and Luka Doncic, All right, that
book nds the first one and the most recent one.
But tell me why would Lebron James go to Cleveland? Well,
he's from Cleveland. Well, show me one other player that
has benefited you know, it goes to geographically desirable.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
What about?
Speaker 5 (07:46):
Why would Wemby probably the second the second best prospect
in the lottery era, next to Lebron? Why on earth
would Wenby go to San Antonio, the twenty fourth biggest
market out of twenty eight, to a team that's already
won five championships? What benefit? How does that benefit the league?
(08:08):
Why would Cleveland get back.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
To back.
Speaker 5 (08:13):
First picks? Would or why would Shack go to Orlando?
And then the very next year Orlando gets Chris Weber?
They get number one back to back Like all of
these if you're of the mind like I can I
can point to four or five picks that seem to
be consistent with the lottery fix hypothesis. Well, I can,
(08:36):
that's only ten percent. I can show you another thirty
five that it makes no sense. So I think, I
think I'll just summarize this. If if, if the theory,
if the lottery fixed theory or hypothesis is based only
on the evidence that we can point to a handful
of picks that kind of seem convenient, and we to
(09:00):
we do not address any of those questions that I
just raised, then I find that hypothesis, that theory to
be completely impotent.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
Jackson felt, I think I speak on behalf of all
the listening audience and saying thanks a lot.
Speaker 8 (09:15):
That was.
Speaker 7 (09:16):
That was if we're talking about like debate class, if
we're talking about like you know, get up and make
a case like I think you just threw the kitchen
sink out of you.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
I'm not well, I'm just getting started. There's a lot
more in terms.
Speaker 5 (09:27):
Of the odds.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Okay, it's all good. I invite a retort.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
I don't want to do it. I honestly, this is
the truth.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
This is my honest truth. I don't care about the
NBA enough to retort. I really don't, Okay, but you've
seem to imply you were fearist, So I'm I'm I'm
eager to engage said Federal Courthouse downtown and heard the
arguments that ended up getting David Stern in the NBA
out of seat.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
I'm done with you.
Speaker 7 (09:58):
I think I'm more interested to know if the NF
fellow should have one, because it's.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
Exactly avoid tanking. That's and it's you. We've talked about this.
Speaker 4 (10:05):
It's so hard in the NFL to tank because you've
got players who are trying to put they're trying to
get a contract for next year. They don't have to
guaranteed deal, most of them beyond the current year. To me,
tanking doesn't happen in the NFL because of that reason alone,
the lack of guarantee contracts. But do you think it
needs a lottery the NFL? Uh?
Speaker 1 (10:21):
I don't think it needs a lottery?
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Would it?
Speaker 5 (10:23):
Would the NFL be better?
Speaker 2 (10:26):
Well?
Speaker 5 (10:27):
I do think that there's you know, you know, like
there's already discussion about you know, you've got arts manning
and you know is Cleveland or the Saints or somebody,
you know the Saints, you know, Arts Manning is from
New Orleans. Uh, are they going to make decisions that
seem to suggest that they're tanking? That's possible. I would
I would be okay. I'm put it this way. It's
(10:47):
not a forefront of mind for me on issues Like
forefront to me is like have full time officials, uh,
you know, take away the push push you know, uh
uh you know, go back to to uh outlawing that
that ridiculous play like. So I've got other things that
are more important. But I'd be okay with the lottery.
But I think that's there's a few things they should do.
(11:09):
I think the ping pong ball. The States have been
doing lotteries a lot more than sports leagues, and the States,
the States and the Omega, they all do ping pong balls.
So what I would just do is is have it
on live TV. It used to be with the NBA.
So I think that, you know, just sitting there with
the you know you you wait, the ping pong balls.
I think they've got that right, and then whatever ping
(11:30):
pong ball pulls up in some order, what what have you?
I think only the most, I don't know, just jaded
of fans would think that there is a fixing on this.
I mean, just to point to one, one flimsy piece
of evidence and ignore dozens of other very sub sanitials.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
I'm back, I'm back, I'm back.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
Sorry, I just you know what happened exactly.
Speaker 5 (12:03):
You know what happened is I started thinking, are we
gonna have this nonsense, this these nonsense accusations.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Wh the NFL.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
I'm gonna say what I said seventeen years ago. Let
me get back to something you just run in the military.
I'm trying to I'm trying to run point on the
any seriously you are and you're doing a hell of
a job.
Speaker 5 (12:25):
Well, let me get back idiously about the NFL perspective,
NFL lottery.
Speaker 1 (12:29):
I agree, I agree with that, But something you just
said I got to get back to. Why ban the
toush push? Why not get good at defending it? Or
why not every offensive coordinator do the same thing.
Speaker 4 (12:41):
And if you are tired of the touch push and
don't like it, stop it, figure out what to do
about that.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Okay, can you mat them another play that?
Speaker 2 (12:49):
I mean, just because someone's good at it.
Speaker 5 (12:51):
Let's contextualize this for a second. So from nineteen twenty
to and now I don't have the rule, but in
front of me, I had it on a prior segment.
That okay, So the assisting the runner was impermissible for
eighty four years. So the tuss push the original idea
(13:15):
of football is no, we like think of this. Let's
let's have a component of assists that we would all
disagree you shouldn't do if you took let's say you
had a little tiny half back at one hundred and
ten pounds, put give him the ball and then have
two big, strong guys just you know, heave him over
(13:36):
the line like you do with a kid in a
swimming pool, just toss him over line into the end zone. Well,
we say, that's kind of nonsense, that's not football. Well
that was that's been impermissible starting in nineteen twenty and
all the way up to today. Well, pushing from behind
was deemed to be impermissible as well. It's it's an
assist that is not common to the game, or should
(13:59):
not be should not be common to the game, And
it was impermissible for eighty four years. And so you say, well,
why did it change? What happened is is you go back,
because I've studied this. What happened is is there was
like one or two times per year where they, you know,
a blockdown field where it was kind of hard. They
was deemed to be hard to officiate, like at ten
(14:21):
yards is he really pushing from the behind or is
he blocking the defender?
Speaker 1 (14:27):
And so they just said, well, let's just.
Speaker 5 (14:29):
Pull it out altogether, the part about pushing, and that
happened in two thousand and four, and nobody even blake nothing.
There was no consequence, not in twenty fourteen, not ten
years later. It wasn't until about fifteen years fifteen, sixteen
years later where the Eagles they started to say, well,
wait a minute, let's use this to advantage. This was
(14:50):
never the intention in two thousand and four. It was
just to clean up, make it easier to effiiciate. It
was not the attention in twenty twenty, excuse me, nineteen
twenty when the rules were made.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
It was not the intention.
Speaker 5 (15:04):
In nineteen sixty seven, the first Super Bowl, It was
not the intention during the eighties when the forty nine ers, like,
it's never been the intention up until it's just evolved
in the manner the sequence I described to this ridiculous
play that's not football, it's rugby. So let's just go
(15:26):
back to how we had viewed the play for eighty
four years.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
And I agree with you there.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
If you're going to make it illegal, then make all
eighting of all runners illegal. And you're right, that's what
I grew up officiating. It would still only be a
five year penalty by the way it was really, but.
Speaker 6 (15:42):
Yeah, it's very between five and ten throughout the years. Yes,
I agree that, then eliminate all of it. But to
just target one specific play, I think you got to
rewrite the whole world book to say no aiding of
the runner whatsoever. And then that I agree with you,
and then that I can see him doing. Know if
it's going to happen next week when they vote at
the spring meetings in Minneapolis.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
But that would be the equitable fix, would it not.
Let's just go back to what it was for eighty
four Just.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
Go back to what it was.
Speaker 5 (16:09):
Yeah, just just go back to a two thousand rule
book that's exactly you know, or right, or as recently
as two thousand, two thousand and three. Just go back
to the two thousand and three rule book that's back
in the You know, this isn't eighteen times, These aren't
level leather helmets. This is Shawn Alexander, you know, like
nobody could push Alexander from behind Nord Matt hasselback like
(16:30):
where this isn't like some cock and many uh you know,
untried uh vision of football. This is just what we
You know, you don't even have to be my age
or I know, Greg you're younger me, but more or
less our age. You don't have to be our age
to remember Jackson. You can you can remember well an
era when it was impermissible.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Wh yeah, man.
Speaker 5 (16:54):
And the curious thing is it was so significant, insignificant
that that that essentially I call I use the term dormant.
The rule laid dormant for fifteen years, like the I
should say, the rule change laid dormant. And the whole
idea behind removing that portion of the rule book it
(17:14):
was never to incentivize the tuss push.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
It was just to make it easier to officially officiate.
Speaker 5 (17:21):
When you do kind of do get those scrums ten
fifteen yards down the field, you say, well, hey that
you know Steve Hutchinson came in to block somebody, but
he kind of hit us the soulder of Seawan. Alexander
did that soulder? You know, was that purposeful or was
that inadvertent? And and yet Alexander he did benefit from
Hutchinson pushing. And then they said, well, that's kind of
(17:43):
hard to officiate.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
Well let's just pull it out of the rule book.
That's that's how it that's how it happened.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
Thank you, sir for the context, because I think that
is important and your's very important.
Speaker 5 (17:52):
He just fix it back to where it was then
to fix because it wasn't it. Look, you know, it's
hard to officiate pass interference bang bang. That happens all
the time, and it happens in significant place. We had
We had generations, decades upon decades, scores of years were
we're eating a runner.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Was not a difficult you know, in any meaningful sense whatsoever.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
It was not difficult.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
Next time I talk to you, I get to ask
you about Jalen Miller. And while you're shaking your head
when I said the CX are going to draft him,
that's hours before they did. But I didn't get a.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
Chance to do that.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
Don't time time, no time, Thank you? Was I shaking
my head because they shouldn't, or thought I don't think
they will, gentlemen as they should not. That's what I
thought it was. But we'll get to that next time. Okay,
Rock and Roll, thanks you man.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
Appreciate me. Hugh Milling as only he can. I tried
to get him off the NBA, what can I do?
And they brought him back to But he makes a
really good point about the original context of the NFL
and what made the Toush push legal. The NFL owners
are a meeting next week in Minneapolis and it supposedly
will vote on this. It was tabled in the last
the owners meetings in March, but they could vote on
(19:02):
it next week, so we may have a was tush
Bush legal illegal? And as we just said, the easy
way is just go back to the way it was
for eighty four years up to two thousand and four.
Gears up to the first place Mariners. They're in Chicago.
They just coming off a sweep of San Diego. They're
up by two and a half games in the American
League West. Luke Arkins Mariners, consigli Air newsletter, frequent guests
of mine on the show. I used to have in
(19:23):
the station. He's gonna join us next and at five
o'clock we're gonna talk more about the Seahawks. We're gonna
get off the text line. May maybe answer the phones
live on the air. Your chance to be live on
the air two of six, two eight, six, ninety five,
ninety five. Or if you don't want to be on
the air, go to the text line or the iHeartRadio
talkback app, press the red button and leave your question
for the Seahawks will answer that. At five o'clock five
(19:43):
thirty four, arm Wall you a great friend of mine.
Tsn talk about the Pucks, the Stanley Cup, plass being
in the final four, all that more Sounders. At six o'clock,
Jackson Feltz and I are on ninety three point three KJRFM.
Speaker 8 (19:55):
Podcasting live from the R and R Foundation Specialist broadcast studio.
Now back to Saftie and Dick powered by Emerald Queen Casino,
the Betty and Capital of the Northwest on Sports Radio
ninety three point three kJ r FM.
Speaker 4 (20:15):
Welcome back, Greg Bell, The news should be in with
Jackson Felts with you instead of Dave Southmaller and Dick Fame.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Dick is about to cover The Storm.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
He played by play on the CW television for The Storm,
playing at Pagebreckers in Dallas, Page Beckers Second n W
NBA Game five Am Dave Softie Mahler's in Greece.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
Jackson tells me gallivanting traveling. As long has he been there?
Speaker 1 (20:38):
I just got there. I want to say today long.
Speaker 7 (20:41):
Well he looked thirty one hours of flights apparently, what so, Yeah,
he's been watching Star Wars. He texts me, every you
can get to Europe in about ten I think I
think he said thirty one hours of traveling. Sorry, but
it's still he's been watching Star Wars content I think
for about twenty five out of thirty one hours.
Speaker 2 (20:58):
So he needs a new travel a thirty hours to Europe.
Speaker 4 (21:02):
Man Luke Argan my favorite Navy guy. Luke Argan's had
him on the show quite a bit. Mariners Can Stickular,
our newsletter author had him on my show quite a
bit when I had it for the last year or so.
In the morning, he joins us the Beacon Plumbing Hotline
to talk about the first place Mariners and Luke. It
feels like Groundhog Day to me, Hello, servant, we're talking
in May about the first place Mariners again.
Speaker 3 (21:22):
Yeah, just like last year, we're in first place on
the end of April and the May and the June
and all the way to the All Star break and
then things kind of fell apart.
Speaker 8 (21:31):
It.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Need we remember that. Good to talk to you again, Luke.
Speaker 4 (21:35):
Okay, So I to you Jackson, and I at the
start said I posited this and tell me if you agree, Luke,
and you got the numbers behind it. Luke Arkins, big
analytical guy, gets all the numbers. Breakdown, Luke, is this
more this two and a half game lead right now
over the trash Cans in mid May? Is that more
sustainable than the ten game lead the Mariners had in June.
(21:57):
That sounds counterintuitive, but we all know the Mariners were
doing it with a complete smoke and mirror show on offense.
Last year into June. The pitching was lights out and
they were only winning because they were winning two zero
and two to one and one nothing. The way, the
offense is top ten and almost every major category statistically.
Would you say, perhaps this lead is more sustainable in
(22:18):
this team is more sustainable success because of how the
offense is playing.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Or are you still Jerry's still out on this.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
Jerry's still out on it. For me, the offense is
definitely better, there's no doubt about that. Whether all the
guys that are producing can continue to produce at the
level they are is really the question mark with this offense.
I mean, Jorge Polanco was rivaling Aaron Judges just a
couple of weeks ago, and now he has really cooled
(22:48):
off a lot in May, and then I think it's
fair to say that Dylan Warren is probably going to
cool off a little bit. And we do know that
Julio will heat up. I think that's already started, and
that's a good thing. But when you look at their offense,
there are a lot of guys overperforming their recent averages,
(23:09):
their their career averages, and so you have to wonder,
is that, like a guy like cal Rawley, is he
just taking the next step or is it or JP
Crawford sort of returning to where he was two years ago?
Ranio rose Arena is slightly more productive than he has been.
Maybe that's sustainable, But then like Dylan Moore and Hargate,
(23:30):
Polanco and even Rowdy Ples, like those guys are overperforming
where they've been recently.
Speaker 8 (23:36):
Is that.
Speaker 3 (23:38):
Sustainable. I have doubts about that.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
Luke Argan's Mariners considering our newsletter joining us on the
Beacon plumbing hotline, and Luke, let me break it down
well even the sustainability piece on offense, let me break
it down even more. The Mariners are top ten in
the major leagues and run scored slugging percentage ops RBIs
and on base percentage there's sixth and home runs second
in the American League only the Yankees and their van
box part they're fifth, and walks eighth in stolen bases,
(24:04):
which blows my mind. What of all those numbers and
maybe even more advanced metrics you have, what is offensively sustainable?
Speaker 2 (24:11):
In particular, do you think with the lineup they have
and what is not and who's going to vanish?
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Well? I think the strikeout part is I don't think
you mentioned strikeout person, but that is that is huge.
You know, I'm actually trying to write a piece this
week about that and how much is that sustainable? And again,
you know, Polanco is having a career year in strikeouts,
He's having his best strikeout the lowest strikeout right ever,
it's I think it's about eighteen percent lower than past year,
(24:42):
so that is a big change. But when you look
across there are guys like Cal Rawley and Jose excuse me,
Julio Rodriguez, and Luke Raley although he's hurt right now,
even Dylan Mover I just mentioned, all of them are
striking out less often than they had in the past,
and that's a good thing. I think that's a good
part for their sustaining their offense. But I know you
(25:06):
don't like to talk about that. You don't like to
talk about the ballpark, but the ballpark does matter for
this team, and they're scoring a run more per game
on the road, and there their overall numbers on the
road are are are much better than at home, but
fifty points better and average ZBP and slug. So you
(25:26):
know that's that's well, that's just the way it is
with this team. That's always going to be the way
it is.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
They've played forty five games going into the three game
series it's going to begin in Chicago, they have four
hundred and four strikeouts.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
To your point, Luke Parkins.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
You and I talked a lot last year when they
were ten to eleven strikeouts a game, so right that
alone is as you said, the fact that they are
having productive outs, ball and playouts rather than ball and
catchers met outs that can change innings and games, can
and not can that alone, lower strikeout fewer strikeouts alone
make this team a better off defense, just single handedly,
(26:01):
because they're at least putting the ball in play and
moving runners.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
I think so their record is much better when they
strike out less than nine times. I had it written
down here. I think they're let's see, they're seventeen and
eleven when they strike out less nine or less times.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
Not even exactly a low bar either.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
No, it's not. That's only about the middle of the league.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
You think last year they were terrible. They struck out
ten or more times more than any team in the league,
and therefore they struck out nine or fewer less than
every team in the league. But yeah, their record is
significally better when they striked out nine or fewer times
in the game. That doesn't mean you can't win games,
and you can still lose them, but you're more competitive.
(26:46):
There's better opportunities, obviously.
Speaker 4 (26:50):
Logan Evans, what are you saying from Logan Evans to
us out of nowhere? Perhaps you had your eye on
him but what are the metrics, what are analytics? What
are they saying about this guy should stay around.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
When they're I don't know if he's going to stick
around once uh once to get the get Logan Gilbert
back and George Kirby and Pryce Miller. I don't He'll
be gone there pretty quickly. He's he had a good
game the other day, but overall his metrics are not great.
I mean, just basic stuff is the opponents are hitting
(27:21):
two eighty six against them, so that's slugging four o five.
So that's that would be that would be good for
a hitter that would would be really happy. We had
a man who's hit two eighty six and slugging four
o five, So that's not good when the pitcher's running
into that. But then again, look at it this way.
You've lost three starters, top line starters out of your rotation.
You still have a guy that can come up and
(27:43):
be subviceable for a month or so. That's exactly what
you want from him. And Emerson Hancock to a lesser degree.
I mean, I Emerson is a better, I think a
better pitcher, but it's the same point that that you
got these guys that you can call upon to fill
the holes and you get the other guys back. And
it does look like people'll get all three guys back.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
What about Ben Williamson, I mean, out of nowhere a
third baseman, he's only hitting two twenty eight, But I
like what I see every time he plays.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
They do them.
Speaker 4 (28:11):
They're doing the platoon thing Master Bony started yesterday. Are
you thinking maybe Williamson somebody should just be the third
basemen or you like the platoon there.
Speaker 3 (28:22):
I'd rather have somebody at third base. I think Williamson
is an excellent defender, and you know, to be fair,
he's only played in twenty seven games and he seems
to be struggling quite a bit. At some point, do
you consider sending him back down to let him work
on his craft? On his craft? Master Boney is very
good defensively and play around the field a little bit,
(28:44):
which is very helpful. But he's not providing anything with
his bat either, So those two together are not giving
you much at the plate, although they're giving you excellent
defense in the field. So I guess it's a trade
off of everybody else is hitting. You can live in
a position that's maybe below average hitting, but it's above
average a defense.
Speaker 1 (29:04):
Luke, it's great to talk to you again.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
I'm sorry, I'm short on time. We gotta let you go,
but go Army beat Navy. Thanks a lot.
Speaker 4 (29:09):
We'll talk to soon, all right. Man, think Luke Carket's
former Navy man, got always tagging for that. But he
he's bigg into the numbers and he spared to some
of his deep, deep dives. But he can go deep
on the Mariners' strikeout totals, and I knew he was
going to bring that up right away as a big,
big factor to compare this offense to twenty twenty four
(29:29):
and twenty three. Next, your chance to be a part
of the show of the textimonials. You're gonna get another
chance to be part of the show at five o'clock.
I'm opening the phone lines at two oh six to eight,
six ninety five ninety five. You're gonna ask Seahawks questions
of me as we do a Seahawks segment from five
until five thirty. But up next your chance to be
a part of the show and the textimonials five thirty
four hundred logs. He's going to talk Stanley Cup playoffs
(29:49):
from TSN and Canada. I'm a great friend of mine
from north of the border. All that clopping up including
Jack and Felt and I opining on the Sounders coming
off with Derby and Portland. That's next on ninety three
points three kJ RFM.
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