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March 12, 2025 • 12 mins
Mike Florio of PFT joins Dave Softy Mahler and Dick Fain to talk about the Seattle Seahawks swapping Sam Darnold for Geno Smith this offseason, the finances of quarterbacks and what Smith is going to make, plus where Aaron Rodgers will sign.
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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's time for a weekly conversation with Pro Football Talks
Mike Florio, brought to you by Simply Seattle. Tired of
buying and repping the same old Seattle sports gear everyone
else has. For the best Storm, Seahawks, Mariners, Kraken, Rainiers, Sounders,
and not to mention, the largest Sonics collection in the world,
check out Simply Seattle dot Com. Now with Mike Florio,

(00:21):
here's Softian Dick.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
But all right, we're back on a busy Wednesday.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
What an opportunity with NFL free agency, Hot and Heavy
to talk to one of the let's face it premiere
NFL figures the media has to offer the king of
the NFL media corps, undisputed heavyweight champion, Pro Football Talk
dot Com, the NFL on NBC, our friend Michael Florio.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
Michael, but how are you, my friend.

Speaker 4 (00:45):
Hot, Hot and Heavy like Elaine and her saxophone playing
boyd and brand Joe Jermaine.

Speaker 3 (00:49):
Well, let's talk about that, because I think a lot
of people are excited in Seattle for Sam Darnold's arrival.
By the way, Sam Battle time, there's also a lot
of people around the country. I think the Seahawks got
worse at quarterback, going from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold,
what do you think?

Speaker 4 (01:05):
Here's the reality. And long before analytics became a tool
for determining whether or not team should go for it
on fourth down or kick a field goal or punt
or whatever, analytics was the initial tool for personnel management.
And it comes down to what am I getting and
how much is it costing me? And what else can

(01:26):
I get? And how much will it cost? And dollar
for dollar am I getting better value? So when John
Schneider found out that Geno Smith was looking for more
than forty million per year, they pivoted to another plan,
and that plan consisted of a guy to take out
for thirty three point five million per year on a
free year deal. We'd get to see the details. Yet
we don't know whether it's a year to year commitment
like Geno's three year contract was. Is it firm two years?

Speaker 2 (01:47):
We don't know.

Speaker 4 (01:48):
But what they decided to do was go dollar for dollar,
cheaper and better. They made that assessment. Now could they
be wrong? I don't know. Last year might have been
the aberration or last year might have been the unlocking
of a higher level of performance from Sam Darnald. They've
already witnessed firsthand what can happen with a failed former
Jets rookie quarterback who goes to another team and thrive

(02:10):
in what Geno Smith did. The difference this time around
Donald had his big year that unlocked a three year
contract with a different team than the Seahawks. So that's
the calculated risks they're taking and the full value, the
full details, the full scope of the deal will be
very instructive on how much of a commitment they've made,

(02:31):
how much of a risk they've taken. But they decided
from a business, from a personnel analytics standpoint, to go
in a different direction and let Geno Smith go. You
rarely see teams do that with quarterbacks. It's the most
important position on the field. But that's exactly what the
Seahawks did.

Speaker 5 (02:46):
What do you think Gino is going to get? How
much more per year is he going to get than
what the Seahawks are paying Sam Donald?

Speaker 4 (02:53):
Well, you know, I have been a critic in the
past of teams trading for players who want new contracts
with out doing a deal for a new contract on
the way through the door to Seahawks did that with
Jamal Adams. The Rams did it with Jalen Ramsey. The
Texans did it six years ago with Larry Tumpsters, who
they just traded this week. You give all the leverage

(03:13):
to the player who's looking for a new deal, but that,
presupposed is a significant investment of draft capital for a
third round pick. The Raiders can play this out. The
Raiders can wait. No new deal on the way through
the door. What are they going to do with Gmail?
We'll find out. But he was looking for north of forty,
and now he's got a chance to go convince the Raiders.

(03:35):
Maybe he already has, who knows, But for what they've
given up by way of draft pick, it doesn't tie
their hands to give him some sort of a massive deal.
But let's also remember north of forty is no longer
a massive deal. The top of the market's sixty, and
we get our assessment skewed by the raw numbers. But

(03:57):
the cat keeps going up, the cast keeps going up,
the franchise I keep going up with the owners of
Pocketing keeps going up. These numbers are going to go
up too, and we shouldn't be shocked by them.

Speaker 3 (04:05):
So DK Metcalf drafted in the second round and gets
traded for a second round draft pick and then gets
a buck fifty from the Steelers. I guess there's the
old who won the trade thing. My question would be twofold.
Why would Pittsburgh make this deal now before they have
a quarterback? And number two? Did the Seahawks kind of

(04:27):
get fleeced a little bit with the compensation in your mind?

Speaker 4 (04:30):
Well, here's the reality. The Seahawks had six years to
get the most out of DK Metcalf, and there's a
common perception that they never really did. They never used
him to his full extent. So how are you to
justify paying thirty three million a year in new money,
which is what the Steelers are doing, if you're not
going to get thirty three million per year in value
out of him because you don't use him the way

(04:52):
that the team uses a high end receiver. You scheme
him open, you get the ball in his hand. We've
talked about this before. You run bubble screens and jet
sweets nine plays to let him do what he can
do with his incredible physical gifts. The Steelers by doing this,
and look, I've been following the Steelers for fifty plus years.
I discovered the NFL on the day of the Immaculate
Reception in nineteen seventy two. The Steelers have never done this,

(05:16):
and I mean never. They never pay market value or
anything close to it for somebody who doesn't play for
the team. Usually if a deal like that gets done,
it's one of their own guys, and usually one one
of their own guys is up for a deal like that,
they let him go. So this is stunning, and good
luck getting the most out of DK Metcalf if you
have to pitt back to Mason Rudolph as you're starting

(05:38):
quarterbacks because Russell Wilson's now going to go see the
Browns and the Giants. They've talked with Aaron Rodgers have
bogged down, and the pressures on the Steelers to get
a quarterback who can get the football consistently, accurately, and
sufficiently to DK Metcalf to justify what is truly a
staggering move by the Steelers, unprecedented in the free agency

(06:00):
error for that franchise.

Speaker 5 (06:01):
Mike, I'm kind of confused by the high wire act
that a fourteen to three Minnesota Vikings team is willing
to make with just JJ McCarthy at quarterback. Why didn't
they just franchise Donald for one year at forty million
dollars as a forty million dollar insurance policy. Make sure
JJ's okay, and give them a year as a true
healthy backup.

Speaker 4 (06:23):
Well, forty million is more than Donald's work. It gets
back to personnel evaluation being the original form of NFL analytics.
You can't justify paying forty million dollars to Sam Donald.
You can find somebody else who can do what Donald
would do at dollar for dollar far less than that.
Let's not undermine Kevin O'Connell's role in Donald's ascension last year,

(06:46):
throwing Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ. Hockinson. The circumstances lie
up perfectly and the other thing that helped Donald. And
this is why I don't think another year would have
been sustainable in Minnesota. JJ McCarthy. He was completely out
of the picture last year. He suffered a torn meniscus
in the preseason. They opted to put him on injured
reserves before the roster cuts, which knocked him out to

(07:09):
the entire year. Donald never had to look over his shoulder,
He never even had to glance to the sidelines, and
he had some rocky games midway through the season. There
were games against the Jaguars and the Titans that were
not impressed, and if you had a viable backup, you
might have been thinking about flipping to Sam Donald at
that point. So I think the Vikings new they got

(07:30):
lightly in a bottle last year. The planets lined up
perfectly except for Week eighteen in the playoffs. That was
the best they were going to get out of Sam Donald,
And now they got to find somebody else in that
same range as Donald last year. One year, ten millions.
That's what they paid Donald. And I think what's going
to happen once the game of musical chairs end for
the starting jobs. The veterans who are left are going

(07:50):
to be clamoring to get to Minnesota because they're going
to want to happen to them what happened for Donald
last year. And if McCarthy gets injured or just faith plants,
they have opening to play. And even if they don't play,
they get a year learning the quarterback position through the
eyes of Kevin O'Connell, who I think right now is
one of the very best designers of plays, coaches of
quarterbacks and play callers in the NFL.

Speaker 3 (08:13):
Where's Aaron Rodgers going, honestly call it for us right now?

Speaker 4 (08:17):
I really don't know. It already should be done in Pittsburgh.
I think the problem is Rogers thinks the Steelers need
him more than he needs them, and the Steelers think
Rogers needs them more than they need him, and so
there's a gap now. And I think the miscalculation by
the Steelers. There was this weird sense and it was
never really justified. But Rogers gave up thirty five million

(08:39):
in cast two years ago, and he was traded to
the Jets, and then when he was the fallback for
the Rams as they were figuring out what they were
going to do with Stafford, there was just a vague
sense that Rodgers must be willing to do a sweetheart
deal to go to the Rams. Why else would the
Rams be downgrading from Stafford to Rogers because Stafford's better
right now. But if Stafford wants more than the Rams
will pay again dollar for dollar, Rogers is a better deal. Well,

(09:02):
that apparently was wrong, because Rogers seems to be looking
for more than what the Steelers are willing to pay.
The Steelers apparently low ball justin Fields. I mean, he
goes to the Jets for twenty million a year, that's
gonna make him the lowest paid starting quarterbacks not on
a rookie contract in the entire NFL. Twenty million for
a quarterback nowadays. Not long ago, it was top of
the market. Nowadays it's the bottom of the veterans starter market.

(09:25):
So I just think the Steelers who got all three
of their guys last year, Russell Wilson and Kyle Allen
and Justin Fields for collectively less than what Mason Rudolph
made from the Titans. I think the Steelers thought they
were going to play it cheap and maybe we'll get
away with it. The now that Wilson is taking visits,
they could end up without either guy and that would

(09:46):
be something. And again this is where Rogers has leverage,
because good luck getting anything of value out of the
guy you're giving thirty three million a year if your
quarterback is Mason Rudolph, I mean, how they may have
to go find Duck Hodges at this point.

Speaker 5 (10:00):
Finally, are the forty nine ers doing a soft reset
or are they doing a hard reset? And if it's
a hard reset, why would you resign Brock Party to
fifty million dollars a year, it.

Speaker 4 (10:09):
Feels like a hard reset. When Cam Inman of the
Barrier News Group posted the game book, the first page
of the game book from Super Bowl fifty eight and
crossed out all of the forty nine Ers players who
are gone, and I counted them up. Eleven of twenty
two starters gone since super Bowl fifty eight played in
February of twenty twenty four. That is jarring. And I

(10:31):
know teams have turnover, but that is jarring. And when
you combine it with Mike Silver's report recently he works
to the Athletic Now that the forty nine Ers are
undergoing an organizational reset when it comes to their willingness
to pay players, it's going to get weird for San Francisco.
And I don't know what they're going to pay party.
I wouldn't pay him fifty million a year. I wouldn't
pay him more than forty million a year on a
short term deal. I want to see that he's a

(10:53):
top ten guy. He's not a PEP top ten guy
in my opinion, and just because he's been in the
right place at the right time, with the right on
the right team where he's got superstars around him. You know,
It's like USC used to be. The quarterbacks would often
not be great because their skills were enhanced by a
great offensive line and great skill position players, and they'd
come to the NFL and they'd struggle. I think that

(11:15):
Rock Purdy is going to be exposed now with less
of talent around, and I want to see what he's
going to do before I make a massive long term investment.
So my son and I were talking about this the
other night. The easy question is do you give him extension?

Speaker 2 (11:27):
Yes?

Speaker 4 (11:28):
The hard question is what's it going to be worth?
And I think there's going to be a gap there.
It's going to force Rock Purty to either take the
best offices on the table or play for five point
two million in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (11:38):
Mike going to relate real quick. Cooper Cup Seahawks have
been linked to him.

Speaker 3 (11:43):
It makes sense he played college football at Eastern obviously
from the area.

Speaker 2 (11:46):
But where do you think Cooper Cup ends up?

Speaker 4 (11:49):
The question is where does the team see him on
the depth chart and what will they pay him for
that spot on the depth chart. The Rams by signing
DeVante Adams and paying more per year than what Cup
was going to make this year. Since the met we
see him as a number three at best. What do
other teams see him as? And the real question can
he stay healthy? Since twenty twenty one, he's missed a
lot of time with injury. At a certain point, that

(12:11):
undermines your value because you've got to be able to
suit up and play to justify whatever the investment is.
And I think it's going to be a challenge for
him to get anything close to the twenty he was
supposed to make from the RAM. I think he's going
to probably fall somewhere between ten and fifteen, and he's
going to be number two at best on a team's
depth chart.

Speaker 2 (12:28):
Mike, you're the man, great stuff. We'll talk in a week.

Speaker 3 (12:30):
See you pass man, you bet Mike Florio with us
on the radio show. We just say we got a
break come back and kind of recap all the moves
made by the Hawks so far, and the fans have
spoken they are applying grades to the process for the Hawks.

Speaker 2 (12:44):
Next on ninety three three KJRFM,
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