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December 30, 2025 • 14 mins

Mike Florio of PFT joins Dave Softy Mahler and Dick Fain to talk about the performance of Matthew Stafford on Monday Night Football, the current leaders for MVP of the NFL, Sam Darnold’s season with Seattle, the Ravens possible upheaval, and Vegas’ issues.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's time for a weekly conversation with Pro Football Talks
Mike Florio, brought to you by Simply Seattle. Tired of
buying and repping the same old Seattle sports gear everyone
else has. For the best Storm, Seahawks, Mariners, Kraken, Rainiers, Sounders,
and not to mention, the largest Sonics collection in the world,
check out simply Seattle dot com. Now with Mike Florio,

(00:21):
Here's Softy and Dick Sunning, Dick without the soft one today.
Hugh Millan is here, Mike Florio is here. Good of
you to go a day early since we are off tomorrow.
Thank you, Michael.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
How are you?

Speaker 3 (00:33):
I am doing fine?

Speaker 2 (00:34):
How are you guys?

Speaker 3 (00:35):
We're always good.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Great, He's even better when Softy's not around.

Speaker 4 (00:38):
We're doing We're doing great.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
You know.

Speaker 4 (00:41):
I was just talking to Hugh about that that Rams
lost last night. If it cost Matthew Stafford the MVP,
and his response, and I think accurately so was well,
if it cost me MVP, it must have been It
better have been razor thin. But I'm looking at these
live lines at least on one betting site, Action Network,
and Matthew Stafford went into the game as the favorite

(01:02):
to win the MVP. On this betting side, he is
now plus four hundred and Drake May is minus five
point fifty. Is it really going to be that much
of a swing based upon one bad game for Matthew Stafford.

Speaker 3 (01:16):
Well, we're got to understand how these swings happen. Right,
people are watching the.

Speaker 5 (01:20):
Game in prime time, stand alone only game on last night.
They're seeing Stafford through three interceptions. They're hearing that he's
tied Brett Farve with six six six is in all
time records.

Speaker 3 (01:31):
And what are they doing. They're hedging. They're betting on
Drake May. And what's that going to do? It's gonna
move the lines. It's that simple. People who are inclined
to wage wire.

Speaker 5 (01:38):
Watched last night's game and they're thinking, you know what,
I'm going to.

Speaker 3 (01:41):
Get value before these gods shift.

Speaker 5 (01:43):
And then before you know it, the odds are shifted
because too many people have bet on Drake May.

Speaker 3 (01:47):
And I don't know how many bets it takes to
make it move.

Speaker 5 (01:49):
I don't know how many bets are placed on these
specialty items.

Speaker 3 (01:52):
EI think it's ridiculous to.

Speaker 5 (01:54):
Offer or to bet your money on something sports related
that is the result of a vote of people, and
I'm one of the people that has a vote. I
sure as hell wouldn't bet a penny on anything that
I was voting on. You don't know what it's going
to be. I look at those odds and I say,
why is Christian McCaffrey plus fifty thousand?

Speaker 3 (02:13):
He may be on my ballot.

Speaker 5 (02:14):
If if forty nine ers get the number one seeds, he
will be one of the top five.

Speaker 3 (02:17):
And we put five deep on the.

Speaker 5 (02:19):
AP ballot for MVP and he plus fifty thousand. So
the betting market, in reality, I think, is a disconnect.

Speaker 2 (02:25):
It's a perception.

Speaker 5 (02:26):
It's a reflection of the perception of the majority of
people out there who are inclined to wager but don't
ultimately have a vote.

Speaker 6 (02:33):
So who is most deserving of the MVP in your eyes?

Speaker 5 (02:37):
Well, the Associated press gets very nervous when any of
the about who they would vote for. So I always say,
I haven't made up my mind, and I won't make
up my mind. I don't even think about it with
any real sense of gravity or you know, concern until
after week EIGHTEAM. Because I'm a big believer for the
big awards.

Speaker 2 (02:58):
The AP MVP and the Coach of the Year. Those
are the two big ones for me.

Speaker 5 (03:04):
I got to see who wins the number one seed
in each conference.

Speaker 3 (03:08):
That means a lot to me.

Speaker 5 (03:09):
There's only one buy now getting that one seed at que.
If you're the key player that helps deliver the number
one seed. If you delivered the number one seed in
the year where no one expected you to, you become
a serious.

Speaker 2 (03:20):
Candidate for Coach of the Year.

Speaker 5 (03:22):
I think that the betters are being very astute putting
money on Kyle Shanahan to the point where he's now
the number two behind my vrabel. If the Patriots aren't
the number one seed in the AFC, if the forty
nine Ers win on Saturday Night and then the number
one seed in the NFC, Kyle Shanahan may be number
one on my ballot.

Speaker 2 (03:38):
Now there's forty nine other ballots out there to neutralized.

Speaker 3 (03:41):
Mind, but you know, I'm not a believer.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
In this idea.

Speaker 5 (03:45):
The coach of the Year is the coach of the
team that most succeeded the generally accepted.

Speaker 3 (03:50):
Amen for that team.

Speaker 2 (03:52):
It's who did the best job.

Speaker 5 (03:53):
And you look at the minefield that Kyle Shanahan is
navigated with all these different injuries, and how they managed
to contend with the Seahawks and the Rams, the best
division in football. If you carve away the Cardinals, it's
it's impressive. And I don't know that anybody's done a
more impressive job.

Speaker 4 (04:07):
Well, I'm gonna ask the question I'm sure a lot
of Seahawks fans driving around are asking right now now,
and which is Well, Mike, if the Seahawks get the
first overall seed in the NFC, the Niners were projected
to finish higher than the Seahawks were this season, why
wouldn't Mike McDonald be given just as much recognition, just
as much credibility to win that job as win that

(04:29):
award as Kyle Shanahan.

Speaker 3 (04:31):
Well, you didn't ask me that question, okay, and now
you do it.

Speaker 2 (04:34):
If the Seahawks went on.

Speaker 5 (04:35):
Saturday Night, then Mike McDonald is a serious contender for
Coach of the Year. And I think he's third in
the betting odds right now. And I think those betting
odds reflect an estimation that the forty nine ers are
going to win the game. So if they don't, if
the Seahawks do, and I know the Seahawks are favored,
but if the Seahawks do win the game, then yeah,
Mike McDonald and Mike Rable of the two primary candidates

(04:58):
when it's time to sit down and figure out how
to rank the one through five, and I hate the assignment.
I don't like doing it. I take it too seriously.
I spend too much time on it, and I look
at it this way. The NFL pays the associated press
and undetermined undisclosed. I know it's determined, it's not disclosed
amount to do these awards. They don't pay the voters.
And I've made a public stink about that. And I

(05:18):
had a chance to walk away from it this year,
and I know they want me to so because they
want me to.

Speaker 3 (05:22):
I won't.

Speaker 5 (05:23):
And I want them to fire me, and they know
I want them to fire me, and they won't. So
it's kind of a fun little relationship in my overall existence.

Speaker 6 (05:32):
Mike Gloria with us. Mike, I'm gonna give a seemingly
random date and then I'll explain why that date. But
I'm gonna ask you, since November twenty seventh, twenty twenty two,
got it, what quarterback in the NFL has the highest
win percentage of any November every seven twenty fourth.

Speaker 5 (05:56):
It's a trick question because you haven't played much since then.

Speaker 3 (05:59):
So if he's got.

Speaker 6 (06:00):
Forty starts, two, he's got forty starts and and so
he's won seventy seven and a half percent of his games.
Mahomes has in that stretch has only won sixty nine
eight eight point eight under seventy percent. And then check this,
Sam Donald on sixty two and a half percent of
his games of those forty gives you a triple digit

(06:22):
passer rating. Sam Donald less than excuse me, Pat Mahomes
less than half, less than thirty six percent, more than
double the rate. So he here's a guy in his
last forty starts, the winning his quarterback in the NFL,
and the guy that is producing one hundred or or
higher passer rating games at the highest rate. What should

(06:45):
a Seahawk fan be overview of Sam.

Speaker 5 (06:49):
Donald, Well, he's dejevoo all over again Week eighteen on
the road against the division rival with a number one
seed on the line, and last year in that game
he did not deliver.

Speaker 2 (07:00):
We have to be realistic about that.

Speaker 5 (07:01):
Now he delivered in the game against the Rams on
the Thursday night, when it looked like he was chariot
back into pumpkin. Somehow, some way, they turned it around
and they got that win. It was a thrilling, exciting game.
But as I said at the time, this is just
the appetizer. The main course is going to be Week eighteen.
He's going to have an apple to apples opportunity to
do the same thing that he.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
Didn't do last year.

Speaker 5 (07:24):
And the playoff game against the Rams last season when
he was with the Viking, that was a total team failure.

Speaker 3 (07:30):
That was just an embarrassment across the or.

Speaker 5 (07:32):
That's agin the Week eighteen game was on him. He
was care mailing passes that could have given the Vikings
a fourteen point lead early on.

Speaker 3 (07:42):
He just was off.

Speaker 2 (07:44):
And the question is this next opportunity.

Speaker 5 (07:46):
Rolls around and they're few and far between one a year.
Here it is, what are you going to do with it?
And let's see, Let's see if he's learned from last year.
Let's see if he settled down. Let's see if Mike
McDonald does a better job of settling him down, more
specifically Clint Kubiak and getting him in the right frame
of mind against the coach who knows him well because
he was in San Francisco for a year. That's the

(08:06):
other layer of intrigue in this one that didn't apply
last year. He's going to get the team he played
for for a year, and Kyle Shanahan knows him. He
knows Kyle Shanahan, and who knows what that's going to
translate to when it's time to play.

Speaker 2 (08:17):
But I you know, I thought NBC was going to get.

Speaker 5 (08:20):
That game Sunday Night, But I'm glad it's stand alone
Saturday Night. I'm glad that it's going to be a
huge primetime audience.

Speaker 3 (08:26):
ABC and ESPN are very fortunate.

Speaker 5 (08:28):
Because it's the most significant game of the year, I think,
And you know, I think the only reason they did
Raveus Steel was on Sunday Night. It got so many
other storylines attached to it in the history of the
two franchises, and what's gonna happen with the coaches, what's
can happen with the quarterbacks. I just think it's the
juice heer overall story for the loser. The Saturday night
game is a juicier overall story for the winner.

Speaker 4 (08:48):
Well, what happens to the losing coach in that Steelers
Ravens game, and if it's Baltimore, is there any chance
that there's a different quarterback in Baltimore next year. There's
just these rumblings potentially about Okay, let's move off Lamar
Jackson and get what you can get from the.

Speaker 5 (09:02):
Same things that were being said about Mike tom them.
Four weeks ago, after they got embarrassed at home by
the Bills twenty seven to six, they gave up the
most rushing yards in Pittsburgh since the early weeks of
the nineteen seventy five seasons. Coincidentally against the Buffalo Bills,
Ben Roethlisberger said, maybe it's time for a fresh start.
Maybe it's time for everyone to go their separate ways.
That's the same analysis applies to John Harbough eighteen years

(09:25):
and not many coaches had coached the same team for
a generation, and it gets to a point where maybe
it's time and the Lamar Jackson dynamic. I spent a
lot of time thinking about it, writing about it, talking
to people about it.

Speaker 3 (09:37):
You know the core problem there. We explained this on
the pregame show the.

Speaker 5 (09:40):
Other night before Braven's Packers on Peacock. The fact that
Lamar's never had an agent, creates a communication issue that
has manifested itself in various different ways. It made it
very difficult for the Raiders to get a contract done
with Lamar Jackson. I think there's still some fumes lingering
from that because there was a illusion breathance and some

(10:01):
facts came out that we're embarrassing for Lamar Jackson.

Speaker 2 (10:03):
I don't believe he was happy about that.

Speaker 3 (10:05):
I think he'd like to get another.

Speaker 5 (10:06):
Contract now he doesn't have an agent to knock on
doors and bang on tables to get a deal done
during the season because he represents himself and I just
add to this overall just tension and mutual frustration. I
think the article last week, it was a column masquerading
as an article that was doing some significant reporting without
citing any sources but named or unnamed, but this idea

(10:29):
that they're frustrated with him. His diet's not good, he
misses too many practices, falls asleep in meetings, stays up
too late playing video games.

Speaker 3 (10:38):
That may be a message sent by.

Speaker 5 (10:39):
The team to him, and it also may be prepositioning
the fan base and also sending an invitation to anyone
out there who may be interested to try to make
the Ravens and offer they won't refuse, because I think
that's the bottom line.

Speaker 3 (10:50):
They can't shop him.

Speaker 5 (10:51):
They have to hope someone will blow them away, because
if someone doesn't, what are you going to do?

Speaker 3 (10:57):
You're kind of stuck.

Speaker 5 (10:58):
And it could be a situation where both sides would
like to split. But who's going to think about this?

Speaker 2 (11:03):
Who's going to.

Speaker 3 (11:04):
Give the Ravens what they would want?

Speaker 5 (11:06):
And then who's going to step into the Ravens shoes
and have the obligation to communicate with a guy who's
never had an agent about getting.

Speaker 3 (11:12):
A contract done. And when you think back.

Speaker 2 (11:14):
To twenty twenty three when he was available as a.

Speaker 5 (11:16):
Franchise tag player for two first round picks, nobody even called.
So he three years old or three years more banged up.
I think that the Ravens would love to get an
offer they won't refuse.

Speaker 3 (11:26):
I don't think they're going to get one.

Speaker 6 (11:28):
Mike Florier with his final couple minutes here Mike in
Las Vegas on a question in three parts number one,
what would you do if you were making the decisions
regarding Carol and Jeter Smith? How involved will Tom Brady
be and what will ultimately do you think, what do
you predict will happen with those two.

Speaker 5 (11:50):
Big picture Mark David said back in January, after the
Raiders owner hired Pete Carroll to be the next head coach,
that he brought in Tom Brady to stabilize the football
operation that ever since John Gruden, to use Davis's words,
had his head cut off. That relates to all that
stuff that happened in November of twenty twenty one, the
emails that came out Gruden resigning with significant pressure. Brady

(12:14):
was the new Gruden. Brady was the right hand man.
Brady is the guy that's gonna help get things under control.
But well, Brady is a drive by absentee landlord. So
the first thing I would do if I was Mark Davis,
as I would say, Hey Tom, Tom, here's what we
got to figure out. You're gonna be all in or
you gotta be all out.

Speaker 3 (12:32):
This can't be a hobby.

Speaker 5 (12:33):
This can't be something you devote a couple of phone
calls a week two. You can't just drop text messages
saying you're doing this wrong, you're doing that wrong. You
either show up every day, roll off your sleeves and
work side by side of this football operation. Or you're
just an investor. You got a great deal because you know,
I thought you were actually going to show up and
help me. You decide what you're going to do, and

(12:55):
I think that's the first decision that needs to be made.
We don't know that Tom Brady is cut out to
be an execut I'll tell you what. He's not cut
out to be a part time drive by.

Speaker 2 (13:05):
Here's what you should do.

Speaker 3 (13:06):
Hire this guy.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
Don't go after Sam Donalds.

Speaker 5 (13:08):
He reportedly didn't want Sam donald That's just not gonna work.

Speaker 2 (13:11):
It's not working. It's a massive failure. So I want
him all in or I want him all out.

Speaker 5 (13:16):
And if he's all in, and let's sit down and
figure out what we're gonna do.

Speaker 3 (13:19):
But you know, I just don't. I don't think it's
sustainable with.

Speaker 5 (13:22):
Pete Carroll when they asked him a few weeks ago
if he thinks the team is rebuilding, and he said, yes,
that's all I need to know because he's seventy what
five next next year? September?

Speaker 3 (13:32):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (13:32):
Like I so when are we going to be better
when I'm eighty?

Speaker 2 (13:36):
Like, I'm not here for a redo, and I think
the biggest problem that.

Speaker 5 (13:40):
They had this year, and it's reflected in created for
Gino Smith. It's reflected in using a top ten draft
pick on a running back.

Speaker 2 (13:48):
They thought this team was better than it was. They
grossly misevaluated the quality of roster.

Speaker 3 (13:52):
They got two great players.

Speaker 5 (13:53):
They've already pissed off Max Crosby to the point where
he may want out by.

Speaker 2 (13:57):
Shutt him down for the last two games.

Speaker 3 (13:59):
Who knows what brought the hours once.

Speaker 5 (14:01):
But if they don't make some major changes, I could
see the only two good players there want now and
then the whole thing just falls Amart. But job number one,
I need Tom Brady to make a decision.

Speaker 3 (14:11):
Are you Are you rowing this boat or are you?

Speaker 2 (14:15):
It's gonna have twenty different jobs and grab every bag
of cash you can find.

Speaker 4 (14:19):
Mike, always a pleasure, my friend. Thank you so much.

Speaker 3 (14:23):
Happy near your Mike. Happy New Year.

Speaker 4 (14:24):
Okay, Mike Florio Tons to get tons. We got to
even more I wanted to get to with Mike.

Speaker 3 (14:29):
We ran out of time.

Speaker 4 (14:30):
There but a lot going on, obviously with Week eighteen
a battle for the one seed. Our friend Grant Cohen,
who will join us at four thirty for the San
Francisco Perspective. His headline today in SI why the forty
nine ers will lose to the Seahawks In the week eighteen,
lor bless Grant Coney, the forty nine or reporter that

(14:51):
hates the forty nine Ers. We'll talk to him at
four thirty. More with you Millon coming up next
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